I can hardly believe it. Already it is time to discuss the Preakness Stakes. Will Super Saver sweep the second leg of the series and be poised to claim the Triple Crown? Or will one of the newcomers smash those dreams? Can Lookin at Lucky rebound from the nightmare trip he suffered in the Derby, or will he run into trouble again? Will Dublin finally finish off his rally and give D. Wayne Lukas his sixth Preakness victory? In just over twenty-four hours we will know.
Let's take a look at the runners.
1. Aikenite
Birthdate - January
Sire - Yes It's True (By It Is True)
Dam - Silverlado (By Saint Ballado)
Owner - Dogwood Stable
Trainer - Todd Pletcher
Jockey - Javier Castellano
Last Race - Derby Trial, finished 2nd
Pros --- He has more than proven that he likes dirt, he has been fairly consistent, and he has the right running style for his post position. He has Javier Castellano, who has been riding very well at Pimlico, for a jockey.
Cons --- Pimlico is a speed favoring track and he does not run well when close to the pace, he may have to go very wide on the final turn, and he may not be as good as some of the others in the race.
Pedigree --- A little iffy for a mile and three sixteenths, but it should take him there. His broodmare sire has sired some good distance horses, but his sire wasn't a very good distance horse.
2. Schoolyard Dreams
Birthdate - May
Sire - Stephen Got Even (By A.P. Indy)
Dam - Hear This (By Prospector's Music)
Owner - Eric Fein & Triple Diamond Stables
Trainer - Derek Ryan
Jockey - Eiber Coa
Last Race - Wood Memorial, finished 4th
Pros - Finished in front of the Derby winner Super Saver in the Tampa Bay Derby, had excuses in the Wood Memorial, and showed an excellent turn of foot in the Tampa Bay Derby.
Cons - He always makes a move but tires in the final sixteenth and is unable to maintain it. His running style might not suit this track.
Pedigree - Should get him a mile and three sixteenths.
3. Pleasant Prince
Birthdate - February
Sire - Indy Kind (By A.P. Indy)
Dam - Archduchess (By Pleasant Tap)
Trainer - Wesley Ward
Jockey - Julien Leparoux
Last Race - Derby Trial, finished 3rd
Pros - Has shown the ability to race frequently in a short period of time, missed by a nose to Ice Box in the Florida Derby and Ice Box went on to run second in the Kentucky Derby, and has an excellent jockey in the saddle.
Cons - He has run poorly in his two races since the Florida Derby, and has yet to run a really good race at any track other than Gulfstream Park. His running style does not suit the Preakness.
Pedigree - It will get him a mile and three sixteenths, and probably a mile and a half too.
4. Northern Giant
Birthdate - March
Sire - Giant's Causeway (By Storm Cat)
Dam - Jessi Take Charge (By War Chant)
Trainer - D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey - Terry Thompson
Last Race - Arkansas Derby, finished 9th
Pros - His running style suits the track, he has an excellent post position, he has run very well on dirt, he had excuses in the Arkansas Derby, and his trainer has won the Preakness five times.
Cons - He is unproven against top competition and he may have just a bit of stamina limitation.
Pedigree - Questionable, but his sire is Giant's Causeway, so that should help.
5. Yawanna Twist
Birthdate - February
Sire - Yonaguska (By Cherokee Run)
Dam - Twist and Pop (By Oliver's Twist)
Trainer - Richard Dutrow
Jockey - Edgar Prado
Last Race - Illinois Derby, finished 2nd
Pros - Has never finished worse than second in four starts, his running style suits the track, and he drew a great post position.
Cons - He has yet to prove himself against top competition, and has been running fairly slow final times.
Pedigree - Very questionable at a mile and three sixteenths.
6. Jackson Bend
Birthdate - February 11th
Sire - Hear No Evil
Dam - Sexy Stockings
Owner - Robert V. LaPenta and Fred J. Brei
Trainer - Nick Zito
Jockey - Mike Smith
Last Race - Kentucky Derby, finished 12th
Pros - Has earned a Beyer speed figure of 100, he has been unbelievably consistent, and he never gives up. His running style suits the track.
Cons - Has severe stamina questions.
Pedigree - Questionable at a mile and three sixteenths. His sire, Hear No Evil, could barely go a mile and a sixteenth. But his broodmare sire, Tabasco Cat, was a Preakness/Belmont winner.
7. Lookin at Lucky
Birthdate - May 27th
Sire - Smart Strike (By Mr. Prospector)
Dam - Private Feeling (By Belong to Me)
Owner - Karl Watson Michael E Pegram and Paul Weitman
Trainer - Bob Baffert
Jockey - Garrett Gomez
Last Race --- Kentucky Derby, finished 6th
Pros --- He has been very consistent, and he has a solid two year old foundation. He is a three time grade I winner and just keeps on running. He has overcome traffic in every race, and although he was sixth in the Derby, he ran quite well after being severely bumped at the start. He has a good post position.
Cons --- He has slight stamina limitations, he eases himself up when he takes the lead, and he needs a perfect trip to run his best race. His running style doesn't suit the track very well.
Pedigree --- Should get him a mile and three sixteenths, but not any further.
8. Super Saver
Birthdate - March 18th
Sire - Maria's Mon (By Wavering Monarch)
Dam - Supercharger (By A.P. Indy)
Owner - WinStar Farm LLC
Trainer - Todd Pletcher
Jockey - Calvin Borel
Last Race --- Kentucky Derby, finished 1st
Pros --- He is the Kentucky Derby winner, his running style suits the track, he has been improving in every race, and he should love the slightly shorter distance. He can also adapt to any pace scenario. He will get a mile and three sixteenths.
Cons --- He won't be racing at his favorite track, (Churchill Downs) and might not be able to get to the rail as quickly as he did in the Derby.
Pedigree --- He can go this distance without a doubt.
9. Caracortado
Birthdate - May
Sire - Cat Dreams (By Storm Cat)
Dam - Mons Venus (By Maria's Mon)
Owner - Blahut Racing & Lo Hi Racing
Trainer - Michael Machowsky
Jockey - Paul Atkinson
Last Race - Santa Anita Derby, finished 4th
Pros - He has been very consistent and had plenty of excuses in the Santa Anita Derby. Comes into the race off of a six week layoff, so he should be fresh and ready. He has won over dirt before and his running style suits Pimlico. He looks like a horse who can improve drastically on dirt.
Cons - He is unproven on dirt against the best three year olds, and his jockey has never ridden in a Triple Crown race before.
Pedigree - Excellent. He will go a mile and three sixteenths.
10. Paddy O'Prado
Birthdate - February 15th
Sire - El Prado (By Sadler Wells)
Dam - Fun House (Prized)
Owner - Donegal Racing
Trainer - Dale Romans
Jockey - Kent Desormeaux
Last Race - Kentucky Derby, finished 3rd
Pros - He has an excellent pedigree, he has Kent Desormeaux as a rider, he appears to be at his best on the dirt, and he seems to be improving.
Cons - He does have some stamina limitations, and he doesn't have the greatest of post positions. He is still unproven on a fast dirt track.
Pedigree --- He should be able to go a mile and three sixteenths.
11. First Dude
Birthdate - March
Sire - Stephen Got Even (By A.P. Indy)
Dam - Run Sarah Run (By Smart Strike)
Owner - Donald R Dizney
Trainer - Dale Romans
Jockey - Ramon Dominguez
Last Race - Blue Grass Stakes, finished 3rd
Pros - He is more than proven on dirt, he has been training well, and his running style suits the track. He has a top jockey riding him and looks ready to run his best race, and he has only finished worse than third once. He has never been beaten by more than six and a quarter lengths.
Cons - He has drawn a poor post position, he may not be as good as some of the others in the race, and has only a maiden win from six starts.
Pedigree - Should take him a mile and three sixteenths.
12. Dublin
Birthdate - April 4th
Sire - Afleet Alex (By Northern Afleet)
Dam - Classy Mirage (By Storm Bird)
Owner - Robert C. Baker and William L. Mack
Trainer - D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey - Terry Thompson
Last Race - Arkansas Derby, finished 3rd
Pros - He made his run in the Kentucky Derby, he just made it on the far turn instead of in the homestretch. He has a very good pedigree and his trainer has won five Preaknesses. He will be ridden by top rider Garrett Gomez for the first time.
Cons - Hasn't won a race since last September, his run always seems to fall a bit short, and he has drawn the far outside. It's a lot to overcome.
Pedigree --- Excellent, classic pedigree. Of all the pedigrees of all the Preakness contenders, I like this one the best. It will get him a mile and a quarter, and probably beyond.
And so that completes my basic analysis. Now it's time to put that data into some kind of order that will pick the winner. . .
To begin, I shall list my random picks like I did last time. Although they were completely wrong, it was still fun to do.
The names are now in the hat. I am pulling out one name at a time. Here are the random picks. . .
1 Aikenite
2 Paddy O'Prado
3 First Dude
4 Schoolyard Dreams
5 Yawanna Twist
6 Jackson Bend
7 Dublin
8 Lookin at Lucky
9 Pleasant Prince
10 Super Saver
11 Caracortado
12 Northern Giant
Apparently the hat intends to hit some sort of monster trifecta or something.
Now the real analyzing begins.
Once again, before going into my real picks, I'm going to list what would happen if every horse ran back to their last Beyer speed figure, with the horse with the highest number winning and the horse with the lowest finishing last.
Here they are. . .
1 Super Saver
2 Paddy O'Prado
3 Aikenite
4 Lookin at Lucky (DH)
5 Yawanna Twist (DH)
6 Dublin
7 Schoolyard Dreams
8 Caracortado
9 First Dude
10 Pleasant Prince
11 Jackson Bend
12 Northern Giant
Somehow, I don't think so. But then again, I can see that happening.
Now let's take a closer look at the speed figures. Suppose we take Super Saver's speed figures for every race and average them out. Then we do this for every other horse. The horses with the highest average number would win. Let's see what happens when we do that.
1 Yawanna Twist
2 Super Saver
3 Lookin at Lucky
4 Caracortado
5 Dublin
6 Jackson Bend
7 Aikenite
8 Schoolyard Dreams
9 First Dude
10 Paddy O'Prado
11 Pleasant Prince
12 Northern Giant
Very interesting. I can see it happening. Yawanna Twist is a very nice horse, but is he good enough to win?
And finally, before I post my picks, I'm going to mention one little thing I have noticed over the past ten years. Horses who did not run in the Kentucky Derby always manage to hit the board in the Preakness.
Think about it. In 2009, Rachel Alexandra won the Preakness. She had not run in the Derby. In 2008, Macho Again ran second and Icabad Crane ran third in the Preakness. They had not run in the Derby.
You can toss out 2007 as an odd year because the top three Derby finishers finished in the top three in the Preakness. You can toss it out because the top three finishers in both races were Curlin, Street Sense, and Hard Spun. Enough said.
Then in 2006, Bernardini won the Preakness. He had not run in the Derby. As well as that, Hemingway's Key ran third in the Preakness after skipping the Derby.
Go back to 2005 and you see more evidence. Scrappy T ran second in the Preakness after not running in the Derby. In 2004, Rock Hard Ten ran second to Smarty Jones after missing the Derby. And Eddington ran third in the Preakness. He hadn't run in the Derby either!
I could go back further, but I won't. You get the idea. Horses who skipped the Derby run well in the Preakness just about every year.
That said, it is now time for my picks.
Here they are. . . (drumroll. . .)
OFFICIAL PICKS
1 Super Saver
2 Caracortado
3 Lookin at Lucky
4 Jackson Bend
5 Dublin
6 Schoolyard Dreams
7 First Dude
8 Paddy O'Prado
9 Yawanna Twist
10 Pleasant Prince
11 Aikenite
12 Northern Giant
These Triple Crown races are extremely hard to pick. I mean really hard. But these are my thoughts. . .
Super Saver can do this. He ran a great race in the Derby and can handle this distance. His running style suits the track and can adapt to any pace scenario. He'll be tough to beat.
Caracortado is another horse I like. He ran a great race despite considerable traffic in the Santa Anita to finish fourth and looks ready to run his best race here tomorrow. Hopefully, Lookin at Lucky will at last get a good trip and run his race.
Jackson Bend should also be tough. The race suits his style and if he has the lead in the stretch, it's possible that no one can catch him.
Then there is Dublin. I love this colt, and would have put him in the top three if he had drawn a better post position, but I don't think he can do it from gate twelve. But he does have a good jockey, and I'll be cheering him on.
Of course, First Dude, Paddy O'Prado, and Yawanna Twist are horses I can see winning, but I just couldn't put in the top six. You can't include them all, but they can all run great races.
And then there is Schoolyard Dreams. He can win easily, but I just can't see it happening. We'll see what happens, but I think he'll get caught in traffic or tire or something. But I could be wrong.
And finally, here are my "Gut Feeling" picks. This is where I post my gut feelings on how each horse is going to run.
GUT FEELING PICKS
1 Super Saver
2 Schoolyard Dreams
3 Caracortado
4 Aikenite
5 Pleasant Prince
6 Yawanna Twist
7 Dublin
8 Lookin at Lucky
9 Jackson Bend
10 Paddy O'Prado
11 First Dude
12 Northern Giant
And now I have come to the end of my post. Will Super Saver win? I don't know. But I'll be cheering for him. And Dublin.
Here are the horses I will be cheering for the most.
1 Super Saver
2 Dublin
3 Caracortado
But I don't care who wins. It's going to be a great race. Enjoy!
-Keelerman
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