Only a couple of days left before the Kentucky Derby and the Oaks. A lot of stuff is going to be happening between now and then. And unfortunately, a lot of bad things happened during the last couple of days.
To begin, I will mention that Eskendereya and Rule are out of the Kentucky Derby. Eskendereya, the Derby favorite, came down with a filling in his left front leg and had to scratch. His trainer, Todd Pletcher, is very disappointed.
And just when Todd Pletcher needed some good news, he got the opposite. Rule was having training difficulties at Churchill Downs, and Todd and the owners of Rule decided not to run him.
But on the other hand, Todd Pletcher and the owners of top class filly Devil May Care have announced that they intend to run her in the Kentucky Derby. She'll do her best to fill the hole left by Eskendereya and Rule, but that is a pretty big hole to fill. Fortunately, she seems to have great talent and should be able to run a great race on Saturday.
Of course, no matter how terrible things seem, something good always comes from them. Even though scratching Eskendereya and Rule doesn't help Pletcher, it does help Nick Zito, who will now be able to run the Fountain of Youth and Wood Memorial runner up Jackson Bend in the Derby. Jackson Bend was sitting 21st on the graded earnings list before it was announced that Devil May Care might run, dropping him down to the 22nd spot. But the defections of Eskendereya and Rule moved him into the 20th spot, getting him into the Derby. This is good news in many ways, for he fully deserves to run in the Derby and has a good shot at hitting the board.
But now let's move on to some slightly more pleasant subjects, such as the results from last Saturday. We'll begin with the grade III The Cliff's Edge Derby Trial Stakes, of which there were two scratches, Privilaged and Soaring Empire.
The one mile race at Churchill Downs looked as though it might turn out a Derby contender for once. The connections of two of the runners, Eightyfiveinafifty and Pleasant Prince, had announced that should their colt win the Derby Trial, they would send him on to the Kentucky Derby.
But as it turned out, it didn't matter. Neither of the colts won the Derby Trial, as it was Hurricane Ike under Calvin Borel who came up the rail to win the Derby Trial by an easy two and three quarter lengths. Aikenite, who is actually rich enough to run in the Derby if his connections felt he should, rallied for second but could not challenge the winner. Pleasant Prince came late for third. Eightfiveinafifty, the heavy favorite, set the pace but had nothing left when challenged by Hurricane Ike after three quarters of a mile. The final time was 1:36 1/5. It was Calvin Borel's fifth win of the day from eight mounts. Not bad.
So here are the results. . .
1 Hurricane Ike
2 Aikenite
3 Pleasant Prince
4 Eightyfiveinafifty
5 Game On Dude
6 Wow Wow Wow
7 Miner's Reserve
8 Hear Ye Hear Ye
. . . versus my selections.
1 Hurricane Ike
2 Eightyfiveinafifty
3 Aikenite
3 Pleasant Prince
5 Miner's Reserve
6 Game On Dude
7 Wow Wow Wow
8 Hear Ye Hear Ye
Except for Eightfiveinafifty, I was pretty close. I can't begin to describe how excited I was when Hurricane Ike won, because I had so nearly gone with Eightyfiveinafifty but decided that Hurricane Ike was the best horse under those conditions. But I was even more excited when the results of the Withers Stakes were in.
I gave the Withers a lot of thought. I knew that D' Funnybone was the heavy and deserving favorite, but I felt that at this distance he was vulnerable. So I started looking for a longshot to be my pick. I thought a long time about using Ibboyee, but I knew that he might have a few distance issues as well. And he was going to be well bet. I felt pretty sure that a longshot was going to win.
I thought about picking Castaneda. He seemed to have some decent speed, and maybe he could shake of D' Funnybone and win the race easily. I doubted it.
I thought about picking Most Happy Fella. The colt had set the pace in the Wood Memorial before fading to finish last. Fortunately, I didn't pick him. He ended up scratching.
I thought about picking Spangled Star. He would be the longshot, but he would be carrying six pounds less than D' Funnybone. But I decided not to pick him for various reasons.
So that left me with Afleet Again. I have followed the colt since before the Whirlaway Stakes and he was actually my pick for the Gotham, where he finished last of ten. But I felt with only 116 pounds on his back in the Withers, he would have a shot, even with his 20-1 morning line odds.
Afleet Again won the Withers at 25-1 going away.
I was so pleased that he had won that I couldn't calm down for the rest of the evening. All I could think was, "I picked the winners of the Derby Trial AND the Withers!"
Of course, Afleet Again had a perfect pace scenario. Breaking alertly, he raced up to sit just off the leader Castaneda through an opening quarter mile fraction of :21 3/5. D' Funnybone, meanwhile, was in trouble. He had broken a bit slowly and got into trouble within the first quarter of a mile. He had to steady sharply and drop back a bit. Then he made his run on the outside to join Castaneda through fractions of :43 4/5 and 1:07 2/5. Afleet Again, meanwhile, had dropped back a bit and was four lengths behind with only a quarter of a mile to go. That was when he made his move.
Swinging five wide, he made a bold move after the leaders. D' Funnybone and Castaneda, after setting the blazing fractions, could find no more. In the mean time, Ibboyee had opened up a clear lead as they came down to the final eighth. But Afleet Again proved to much for him, and drew off to a length and a half victory, getting the mile in 1:34 flat. Ibboyee held second, four and a quarter lengths in front of Spangled Star, who made a late run to pass the tiring pace setters. D' Funnybone ended up fourth, ten and three quarter lengths in front of Castaneda.
So anyway, congratulations to Afleet Again and his connections! I will remember this race fondly for many years.
Then there was an allowance race at Lone Star Park. I don't think that it is going to turn out a Triple Crown race winner, but it's still worth noting.
The favorite was Random Move, at odds of 1.90-1. Guilty Plea was also well bet at 3-1, and Productive Envoy was 5-1. My pick was Productive Envoy.
The race was fairly uneventful, although there was a little bit of bumping in the early going. Two Ex, an 8-1 shot, set the pace, followed closely by Guilty Plea. Productive Envoy sat right behind them while Random Move was far back.
On the far turn, Two Ex gave way, leaving Guilty Plea the leader. But Productive Envoy was moving and took the lead in the stretch. He managed to hold off 15-1 Shoot it's War for the win, with Guilty Plea back in third, beaten less than two lengths. Random Move rallied for fourth.
Then there was the six furlong Land of Lincoln Stakes at Hawthorne. For three year old Texas breds, it drew a field of nine highlighted by Royal Express. The second choice was Cap'n Nick, followed by Big Looie and Devient Behavior. I liked Windy City Cat.
Except for some bumping at the start, the race was pretty controlled. Royal Express broke fastest and set the pace for about half the race before being overtaken by Big Looie. Big Looie then pulled away to lead by a length and a half at the eighth pole, but had to dig in to hold off a fast closing 16-1 Seguro. 20-1 A J's Mountain finished third, with Star of Paradise fourth. Then came Royal Express and Windy City Cat, the latter whom completely failed to menace.
Another race of note was the mile and a sixteenth Melair Stakes at Hollywood Park. For three year old fillies, the heavy favorite was La Nez. She was also my pick. Camille C was sent off as the 3-1 second choice.
As it turned out, La Nez never really threatened. She raced fifth for much of the race before making an outside bid to draw within a half length of Camille C, who had led from the start. But she was unable to sustain her rally, and ended up third, beaten nine and three quarter lengths by the winner. Salty Fries at 5-1 rallied for second, with Costanta fourth.
Finally, there was the mile and a sixteenth Island Whirl Florida Thoroughbred Charities Stakes for three year olds and upward. The favorite was Bim Bam, a three year old colt who had defeated Triple Crown prospect Interactif in the Hallandale Beach Stakes when the latter was making his 2010 debut. In his next start, however, he finished fifth behind eventual Blue Grass Stakes runner up Paddy O'Prado in the grade III Palm Beach Stakes. The second choice at 3-1 was Roman Tiger, a five year old gelded son of Tiger Ridge. He was also my pick.
Although Bim Bam came very close to winning another race, he just couldn't quite get it done. Racing fourth for the first half mile. he began to inch up on the leaders and made a good bid for the lead, but Roman Tiger blew past him on his way to a two and three quarter length victory. Bim Bam held second by a neck over Sincero.
And now, I am almost done. But there is still one more thing left to do. I must reveal the mystery horse.
THE MYSTERY HORSE REVEALED
I know I said that I was going to announced this colts identity on Thursday, but now that the field has been drawn, I feel now is as good a time as any. So, with a drumroll, I shall announce the mystery colt. . .
Drumroll . . .
Anxiously awaiting . . .
Opening the envelope . . .
And the mystery colt is . . .
HOMEBOYKRIS!
I know that many of you will be shocked into silence by this news, but I truly think that Homeboykris has a fighting chance. Yes, he drew gate 19, and yes he has done absolutely nothing of note since winning the Champagne Stakes last October, but I feel that he is sitting on the race of his life and could spoil a lot of superfectas. Here are five reasons to like him:
1. He will be ridden by top jockey Ramon Dominguez.
2. He is trained by Rick Dutrow, who has won the Derby before with Big Brown.
3. He has not raced since February 27th. He is certainly going to be fresh.
4. He is training well at Churchill Downs
5. He probably won't run into any traffic, as he will be breaking from gate 19.
Now, are you convinced that Homeboykris is going to win the Kentucky Derby? Okay, I didn't give any great reasons to put lots of money on him, but the fact is I just have this feeling that he is not a throw out horse. I won't be throwing him out of the mix, and will be considering him a legitimate contender. Hey, I like him better than Discreetly Mine!
And that's it for now. I'll be back tomorrow with my thoughts on the Kentucky Oaks, and on Oaks Day I will post my selections for the Kentucky Derby. I will also briefly discuss Rachel Alexandra in the La Troienne Stakes as well as the rest of the Kentucky Derby and Oaks undercards. And don't forget that on Derby Day I will be live on my blog updating as post time draws nearer. I'll be discussing how they look in the post parade, if anybody is acting up, and how I feel overall about everything.
Two days left until Derby Day. . . this is so much fun!
-Keelerman
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