It is now just two weeks until the Kentucky Derby. The field is taking shape, and only two more preps remain. One of them is this Saturday.
Last week, several important things happened, including Odysseus, Uh Oh Bango, Interactif, and Aikenite dropping out of the Kentucky Derby. Odysseus and Uh Oh Bango won't be running in any of the Triple Crown races due to injuries. Interactif might still run in the Derby, but it is highly doubted. Aikenite is skipping the Derby, but might show up for the Belmont. Noble's Promise may or may not run in the Derby due to a variety of problems, and Lookin at Lucky is going to shed his blinkers.
Confused yet? I'll explain.
But first, let's take a look at the Coolmore Lexington Stakes.
COOLMORE LEXINGTON STAKES (gr. II) ---- Keeneland, Race 9, April 17th
8.5 Furlongs (Synthetic)
So, this is the Lexington Stakes. I'm afraid that it is a bit of a disappointment. Now, don't get me wrong, the field is great and it's going to be a great race to watch, but because it's going to take over $200,000 to get into the Kentucky Derby this year, it looks as though the winner of this race will not make the Kentucky Derby. Of all the runners, it appears that only Connemara has the graded earnings to possibly get in with a win here, and he isn't aiming for the Kentucky Derby at this time. Disappointing, but it's still going to be a good race. Let's take a look at who's running.
To begin with, there is the number one horse Krypton. The son of Rock Hard Ten has only two wins in two starts, but does have a win over the Keeneland Polytrack. Trained by K. McLaughlin, he will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Alan Garcia. His morning line odds are 6-1, but I think that he has a better chance than his odds say.
Then there is the number two horse Uptowncharlybrown. The son of Limehouse is the slight morning line favorite at 4-1. He is also the heavy sentimental favorite, for his trainer, Alan Seewald, passed away on April 12th. Uptowncharlybrown is now being trained by Seewald's assistant Linda White. According to Bob Hutt, one of the many owners of the colt, Seewald did not intend to start Uptowncharlybrown in the Kentucky Derby, but it was his dream to win the Haskell Invitational. Hopefully, the colt will be able to do it for him. He will be ridden today by Garrett Gomez and will carry 117 pounds.
Moving on, we come to the number three horse Distorted Dave. The son of Distorted Humor comes into the Lexington off of an Allowance Optional Claiming race at Santa Anita Park. This will be his first start outside of California, and his first start at a track other than Santa Anita for that matter. He may just have a shot at winning tomorrow. He will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Victor Espinoza.
This brings us to the number four horse Bushwhacked. The son of Posse comes into the Lexington off of a win in a maiden race at Keeneland two weeks ago. It was his third attempt to break his maiden, but his first start at Keeneland. He may be coming back a little quick, but I wouldn't count him out. He will be carrying 117 pounds and will be ridden by R. Maragh.
Now we come to the number five horse Call Shot. The son of Tale of the Cat has been competing with some very good company, including Radiohead, Homeboykris, Dublin, and Thiskihasnolimit. He was actually entered to run in the Transylvania Stakes on April 2nd, but scratched. Although he only has two wins from six starts, he has finished in the top three five out of six times. He most recently finished third to Radiohead and Homeboykris in a Gulfstream Park allowance race. He does have a win over the Keeneland surface, in an allowance race last October, and I would not be surprised at all if this colt wins. He will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by J. Alvarado.
This brings us to the number six horse Prince Will I Am. The son of Victory Gallop has not raced since finishing way behind in the Fountain of Youth Stakes eight weeks ago. Prior to that, he had run second to the highly regarded Drosselmeyer in a nine furlong allowance race at Gulfstream Park. This will be his first start on a synthetic track. He will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Calvin Borel.
Then there is the number seven horse Lonesome Street. The son of Broken Vow was a late running second to Exhi in the eight and a half furlong Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park three weeks ago. His morning line odds are 12-1, which seem fair, but he may have a shot at stealing the race. He will be carrying only 117 pounds and will be ridden by Julien Leparoux.
Now we come to the number eight horse Exhi. The son of Maria's Mon, as I mentioned earlier, won the mile and a sixteenth Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park. He will have to carry co-top weight of 121 pounds, but I think that he is up to the challenge. He will be ridden by Robby Albarado, and will likely be on or near the lead. He is trained by Todd Pletcher, which seems to be a good thing right now.
This brings to the number nine horse Heavenville. The son of Oflee Wild has already started twelve times, winning three, finishing second four times, and third twice. He has been consistent, although this will be a big step up in class for him. Carrying 117 pounds, he will be ridden by Shaun Bridgmohan. He might just be in the mix, as he is proven on this track. He broke his maiden here last April.
Now we move on to the other Todd Pletcher colt, the number ten horse Connemara. The son of Giant's Causeway has never finished worse than third in five starts, but comes into the Lexington Stakes off of a third place finish, beaten nearly six lengths, in the Lane's End Stakes behind Dean's Kitten and Northern Giant. According to Todd Pletcher, Connemara is unlikely for the Kentucky Derby, although a win here would give him the necessary earnings. Actually, it appears as though Connemara is the only colt in the race who can make the Derby with a win here. But anyway, he will be ridden by Russel Baze, and will carry co-top weight of 121 pounds. He should run well here, although it will be his first start on Keeneland's Polytrack.
Then there is the number eleven horse Kettle River. The son of Congaree has only raced four times, breakings his maiden on the second try last November, winning an allowance race in early January, and finishing off the board in the Sham Stakes in early March. He is the morning line second choice, along with Connemara, and should be able to run a good race. This will be his first start at Keeneland, although he has been training there for a while. He will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by J. Castellano.
Finally, we come to the number twelve horse Chief Counsel. The son of Officer has started six times, finishing in the top three five times and fourth one other time. He comes into the Lexington off of a fourth place finish behind Dean's Kitten, Northern Giant, and Connemara in the Lane's End Stakes. I can't really see this colt winning, especially from gate twelve, but he did overcome a bad trip in the Lane's End to come running late, so he may have a shot at winning tomorrow. He will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux.
So I have finally gotten through all of the entries. Here are my selections. . .
1 Call Shot
2 Uptowncharlybrown
3 Connemara
4 Chief Counsel
5 Lonesome Street
6 Exhi
7 Distorted Dave
8 Krypton
9 Kettle River
10 Prince Will I Am
11 Heavenville
12 Bushwhacked
Now, I must admit that the field is very tough field and I am probably wrong about the order of finish, but I am pretty confident. I realize that Kettle River, Krypton, and others that I have low on my list have excellent shots at winning, but I like Call Shot and Uptowncharlybrown, with Connemara to rally for third. My final thought is this: Prince Will I Am has the potential to improve greatly on the Keeneland surface and I would not even blink if he was to roar from behind and blast to a fifty length victory. (Okay, I would be blinking if he won by fifty, but I wouldn't be surprised whatsoever if he won.)
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
Now, the Lexington is the only really Kentucky Derby or Kentucky Oaks prep going on this weekend, but I will mention that the first two stakes races for two year olds are being run this Saturday. Both are at Sunland Park, and both are four and a half furlongs in distance. One is for colts and geldings, the other for fillies. They are both called the Copper Top Futurity.
The first one (for fillies) has drawn a field of ten, but the number nine horse Shug's Midnight has scratched, leaving only nine runners. The morning line favorite at 8-5 is the number five horse Shamrock Girl. Tin Can Kitty should also receive some money at 3-1. Of the lot, I like Shamrock Girl. Her workouts have been nice and she is currently undefeated in two starts. Diamond Charm might also have a shot.
The second one (for colts) also drew a field of ten, but after three scratches, the field has been reduced to seven. The slight morning line favorite is Dodson at 5-2, with Ting at 7-2 and Verny at 4-1. The three of them are undefeated, each of them having raced once.
Of course, the odds of any of these horses becoming a Kentucky Derby winner a fairly small, but you never know where the next great one will come from.
Now I believe that I will move on to recapping what happened last week.
RACE RECAPS
To begin with, I'll discuss the Blue Grass Stakes. The grade I prep for the Kentucky Derby drew a tough field of nine, and as I said last week, I could see eight of those nine horse winning easily. The only colt I couldn't see winning was Stately Victor.
Here are the results.
1 Stately Victor
2 Paddy O'Prado
3 First Dude
4 Interactif
5 Codoy
6 Make Music for Me
7 Pleasant Prince
8 Aikenite
9 Odysseus
. . . versus my selections.
1 Aikenite
2 Interactif
3 Make Music for Me
4 Pleasant Prince
5 Odysseus
6 First Dude
7 Paddy O'Prado
8 Codoy
9 Stately Victor
Wow.
Didn't see that coming.
I would have been closer if I had reversed my list.
Stately Victor? 40-1? If anybody had told me before the race that he would win, I would have said "No way." And then he won by four and a quarter lengths, with Paddy O'Prado second!
I was completely wrong about this race, as I usually am when it comes to Keeneland's Polytrack. My pick, Aikenite, just didn't fire. Nor did Pleasant Prince, who desperately needed earnings to get into the Derby. Unfortunately, due to his seventh place finish, he is forced to run back in the Derby Trial next week. As for Odysseus, he came out of the race with a bone chip, and is now off the Derby trail.
The race set up exactly how I expected it to. Odysseus went right to the front, followed closely by Paddy O'Prado. Unfortunately, Odysseus did not hang around as long as I thought he would. Paddy O'Prado took the lead after about three quarters of a mile. Aikenite raced evenly just behind them, with First Dude also close. Moving around the final turn, Odysseus gave way and faded to last. Paddy O'Prado looked like a sure winner, but Stately Victor came roaring from sixth after three quarters of a mile to grab a four and a quarter length victory. Paddy O'Prado hung on for Second, with First Dude coming on for third. Aikenite, despite looking very good as they rounded the final turn, faded to finish eighth. Pleasant Prince had no excuses while finishing seventh. I guess that he just didn't care for the surface. He apparently emerged from the race okay, for he is going to run back in the Derby Trial next week to try and get the earnings to make the Kentucky Derby.
That said, it's time to move on to the Arkansas Derby.
Of the two big Derby preps last week, this was the one I was anticipating the most, for my Kentucky Derby pick Dublin was running. I knew that he would have his work cut out for him, as a solid field had turned out to face him. After carefully examining the pace set up, I deduced that Noble's Promise was the one to beat. I figured that Dublin would finish second and Super Saver third.
However, while looking over the entries, I noticed the number eight horse Line of David. He seemed to be a nice enough horse, and I knew that he would be the one to beat if he got a clear lead, but of course, that couldn't possibly happen with Super Saver running, right?
Wrong.
Much to my surprise, Line of David blasted away from the gate and had a commanding two and a half length lead after a quarter of a mile had been run. Super Saver was content to sit in second, ignoring the runaway leader!
After three eighths of a mile, I knew that Line of David was not going to be caught. As they turned for home, I thought that Dublin was going to catch him, and I cheered my favorite for the length of the stretch, but he fell a half length short while finishing third. Super Saver was second, with Line of David the winner by a head.
I suppose you’re wondering what happened to Noble's Promise. Well, he broke last and got squeezed at the start, forcing him to change his running style. The favorite did manage to get as close as fourth, but ended up finishing fifth. However, he came out of the race with several cuts on his legs and a slight lung infection, so his effort really wasn't that bad. It is unknown whether or not he will be able to make the Kentucky Derby, but I hope that he will recover in time. As for Dublin, he is still my top pick for the Kentucky Derby.
So here are the results . . .
1 Line of David
2 Super Saver
3 Dublin
4 Uh Oh Bango
5 Noble's Promise
6 New Madrid
7 Berberis
8 Pulsion
9 Northern Giant
. . . versus my selections.
1 Noble's Promise
2 Dublin
3 Super Saver
4 Pulsion
5 Northern Giant
6 Uh Oh Bango
7 Line of David
8 Berberis
9 New Madrid
So I was wrong once again. Like I said, I figured that there was no way for Line of David to get a clear lead, and I figured that he would fold as they turned for home. But it's possible that he wouldn't have folded even if Super Saver had pushed him, for he ran fractions of 22 3/5 and 46 1/5. A brilliant run, an excellent ride, and he's on his way to the Derby. As for Uh Oh Bango, who came flying late to finish fourth, he came out of the race with a fractured leg and will not be racing again for at least four months, if not more. It was very sad, for I liked him a lot for the Derby and Belmont, but he will be back.
OTHER RACE RESULTS
Although I am running out of time, I will take a moment to mention a few other races that might affect the outcome of the Triple Crown. (I don't know how many times I have repeated that line, but I like it, and it says exactly what I want to say.)
The first race was the one mile Premiere Stakes for three year olds and up at Lone Star Park. Not exactly the prime spot to prep a Triple Crown horse, but you never know. The winner, and my pick, was Coyote Legend, who I believe was the only three year old running. He got a very good trip, and just managed to outfight Huntersrunaway to the wire. It was another half length back to Poltergeist, who actually made an attempt to make the Kentucky Derby last year. He ran in the Southwest Stakes, Rebel Stakes, and Arkansas Derby, and I think he even hit the board in one of them, but I don't really remember. Anyway, congratulations to Coyote Legend for defeating older horses, and may you continue to win for a long, long time.
The second race was a six and a half furlong allowance race for three year olds at Santa Anita Park. The slightest favorite was Lions Story, but I liked Concord Point. It was a very good race, and Lions Story did run well, but it was all Concord Point, who went wire-to-wire at odds of 2-1. It was a length and a half back to the 12-1 shot Royce, who just hold off Lions Story for the place. It's possible that we might just see Concord Point in one of the Triple Crown races . . .
This brings us to the one mile Instant Racing Stakes for three year old fillies at Oaklawn Park. Run on the same day as the Arkansas Derby, the heavy favorite was Decelerator, and she proved that she deserved it, winning by a neck over Vertical Vision. Bell's Shoes finished third. It's possible that we might see both Decelerator and Vertical Vision in Kentucky for the Kentucky Oaks, but they may not have the graded earnings necessary.
And finally, we come to the one mile on the turf Appalachian Stakes for three year old fillies at Keeneland. The heavy favorite was Rose Catherine, but my pick was Check the Label. With Julien Leparoux in the saddle, Check the Label came from just off the pace to grab a three quarter length victory over Bay to Bay. Rose Catherine finished third.
And that is all. I'm looking forward to a great day of racing, as the Kentucky Derby comes closer and closer. Enjoy!
-Keelerman
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