(Note: As I am nowhere near finished with handicapping the Kentucky Derby, I decided to shorten this list to only eight and warn you that it is only a loose draft of my final picks. This list may look very different the day before the Derby, but for now, you get the idea!)
1. DUBLIN Afleet Alex - Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird D. Wayne Lukas
Had another good workout at Churchill Downs. Despite the fact that he hasn't won since September, I'm believe that he is ready to run his best on Saturday. Drawing post seventeen isn't going to help him any, but perhaps it will force him to drop back early and come running late.
2. SUPER SAVER Maria's Mon - Super Charger, by A.P. Indy Todd Pletcher
Post four is perhaps a little bit to close to the rail, but I'm sure that's where Calvin Borel wants him. It's obvious that this colt likes Churchill Downs and his final workout was excellent. I'm expecting big things from this colt.
3. LOOKIN AT LUCKY Smart Strike - Private Feeling, by Belong to Me Bob Baffert
He has been training so well at Churchill Downs that I nearly put him at the top of my list. But then he drew gate one and I decided to drop him to three. The one hole is not where he needs to be, and it may throw off any strategy Baffert and Gomez may have come up with, but he has proven time and time again that he can overcome traffic and still run well.
4. MISSION IMPAZIBLE Unbridled's Song - La Pez, by Hold Your Peace Todd Pletcher
From the first day I heard about this colt, I've been somewhat reluctant to get excited over him. He just hadn't impressed me. But when he arrived at Churchill Downs and started training beautifully, I became a fan. If the track is muddy on Derby day, this colt will be right there at the finish.
5. CONVEYANCE Indian Charlie - Emptythetill, by Holy Bull Bob Baffert
With Rule, Eskendereya, and Eightfiveinafifty out of Derby consideration, the pace scenario has just changed drastically. This colt is training in the shadow of Lookin at Lucky but has a big shot at winning the Kentucky Derby. He has so much speed that he may be gone before anyone can catch him.
6. AWESOME ACT Awesome Again - Houdini's Honey, by Mr. Prospector Jeremy Noseda
The more I look at this colt, the better I like him. He is going to fire his best shot on Saturday. There is only one question left --- is he a cannon or a cap gun?
7. DEVIL MAY CARE Malibu Moon - Kelli's Ransom, by Red Ransom Todd Pletcher
After Todd Pletcher announced that he intends to enter her in the Kentucky Derby only, I had to move this filly up. She has some questions to answer, including the one about the six week layoff, but it's obvious that she is very talented and can hit the board in the Derby. Under the right conditions, I think that she can even win.
8. ICE BOX Pulpit - Spice Island, by Tabasco Cat Nick Zito
Seems to be a bit overlooked, with Eskendereya, Rule, and Devil May Care filling the headlines, but really hasn't done anything wrong. A good post position and a fast pace will help him out.
-Keelerman
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