". . . they come down the homestretch and it's Lookin at Lucky with a narrow lead! Super Saver battles on his inside, and Dublin is launching a furious rally from the back of the pack! Dublin is grinding past horses! Lookin at Lucky leads at the eighth pole! Super Saver refuses to give way! Calvin Borel is imploring him to go on! But here comes Dublin! Down to the final sixteenth! Lookin at Lucky has unwavering courage! Super Saver is a stubborn foe! And Dublin is cutting them both down with every stride! Here's the wire! . . . Dublin gets up to win it by a neck! Welcome back Wayne Lukas!"
Oh wait a minute . . . that's next Saturday. Or at least I hope that's what happens next Saturday.
Getting serious, there is only one week left before the Kentucky Derby. And amazingly, there is still one final prep. And that is the Derby Trial, which has been reduced to nothing over the past several years, but with the severe earnings problem many top horses are facing, it is once again a prime trial for the Derby. If you can believe it, two of the colts running may end up in the Derby if they win. So let's take a look at the tough ten horse field and see what we can figure out.
DERBY TRIAL (gr. III) ---- Churchill Downs, Race 10, April 24th
8 Furlongs (Dirt)
To begin with, there is the number one horse Game On Dude. The son of Awesome Again has not raced since running seventh in the Florida Derby behind Ice Box five weeks ago. He has been fairly consistent, but proved that he was no match for the best horses in Florida. Still, he will be ridden by Robby Albarado and will have to carry only 117 pounds, which is four less than the high weight Eightyfiveinafifty. He might be in the mix, but may not be quite as good as some of the others that are running.
This brings us to the number two horse Soaring Empire. Another colt making his first start back since the Florida Derby, the son of Empire Maker did not get a great trip in that race, and may step up and run a big one tomorrow. He will be ridden by Eddie Castro and will carry 117 pounds.
Then there is the number three horse Privilaged. The son of Southern Image has only made one start this year, and that was in the grade II Swale Stakes on the undercard of the Florida Derby. He actually ran a very good race that day, racing three wide while chasing the pace. He ended up third, beaten three and a half lengths. I actually like him pretty well here, and I think that he has the ability to step up and run the race of his life. He will be ridden by R. Maragh and will carry 117 pounds.
Now we come to the four horse Pleasant Prince. The 4-1 morning line second choice has been racing rather frequently. Five weeks ago he ran second in the Florida Derby. Two weeks ago he ran seventh in the Blue Grass, but it was obvious that he hated Keeneland's Polytrack. Now he intends to run in the in the Derby Trial, and should he win, the Kentucky Derby. That would be four races in six weeks. And his seventh of the year. If he can handle it, he is a very rare horse. Anyway, the son of Indy King will be carrying 117 pounds tomorrow and will be ridden by regular rider Julien Leparoux, who won the Eclipse award last year for outstanding jockey.
Next up is the number five horse Hurricane Ike. The son of Graeme Hall has ran an excellent race last time out in his first start on dirt, running second to Eightfiveinafifty in the Bay Shore Stakes while earning the highest Beyer speed figure of his life. He has yet to be proven beyond seven furlongs, as in his only start beyond that distance he ran eleventh in the Breeders' Futurity, but that was many months ago, and it was at Keeneland. Tomorrow, he will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Calvin Borel, which is always a good thing.
But we mustn’t ignore the six horse Miner's Reserve. The son of Mineshaft broke his maiden impressively earlier this year, but ran a horrible race in the Florida Derby, being beaten nearly thirty-five lengths while having no obvious excuse. But I am willing to excuse his poor performance there and assume that he is going to bounce back. He will carry 117 pounds tomorrow, five pounds less than he has ever carried in his life, and will be ridden for the first time by Jose Lezcano.
This brings us to the number seven horse Wow Wow Wow. The son of Broken Vow will be making his tenth lifetime start at the sixth different track. He seems to be one of those colts who runs either really well or really poorly. Looking at his workouts, I would say that he has taken to Churchill Downs rather well, and might be ready to run his best race tomorrow. He will be carrying 117 pounds and will be ridden by Terry Thompson, who rode the colt to his best victory, an optional claiming race at Oaklawn Park.
Then there is the number eight horse Hear Ye Hear Ye. You certainly can't knock the son of Hear No Evil's soundness, as the Derby Trial will be his fourteenth start and his second of the month. If you can believe it, he has run in at least one race every month since last May, excluding the month of January. He has won twice, but is a state-restricted stakes winner. He has finished in the top three only three times, but has finished fourth five times. I don't think he will be a very big contender tomorrow, but with Corey Nakatani on his back, you never know. He will carry 117 pounds.
Coming down to the final two entries, we find Aikenite. The son of Yes It's True ran the worst race of his career in his last start, the Blue Grass Stakes. He has no obvious reason, as he had run well over Keeneland's Polytrack before, and we can only hope that he will return to his prior racing form. However, he has run his best races while coming from off the pace, and he might have been just a tad too close to the lead in the Blue Grass. Hopefully, his jockey Garrett Gomez will take him back tomorrow. He will be carrying 117 pounds.
Finally, we come to the ten horse Eightyfiveinafifty. This colt is the solid morning line favorite at 8-5, and will probably be lower by post time, but he seems to be a bit wild. Two starts back he failed to turn going into the first turn at Aqueduct in the mile and a sixteenth Whirlaway Stakes. He ended up with a broken bit and a cut which required stitches. And in his last start, the Bay Shore Stakes, he won easily, but was not paying much attention to the race. For the first fifty yards or so, he ran with his head turned towards the infield and never seems completely comfortable. Another question that I ask is can he go a mile? The answer is perhaps. We'll find out tomorrow. He will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez and will carry top weight of 121 pounds.
So here are my selections. . .
1 Hurricane Ike
2 Eightyfiveinafifty
3 Pleasant Prince
3 Aikenite
5 Privilaged
6 Soaring Empire
7 Miner's Reserve
8 Game On Dude
9 Wow Wow Wow
10 Hear Ye Hear Ye
It was a tough decision, but I guess I'm not going to pick a colt who might not finish the race. I know that he is probably past not making turns, but he still seems to be a very erratic horse and somewhat unpredictable. Still, he appears to be a step or two above every other horse in this race. My pick is Hurricane Ike, who got within two and a half lengths of Eightyfiveinafifty in the Bay Shore Stakes. With an extra furlong, who knows what might happen? Wow Wow Wow is another horse I like, but I can't see him lasting the mile distance with the pace that is going to be run. There is a lot of speed in this race. As for third, I couldn't make up my mind. Pleasant Prince is probably better than Aikenite, but Aikenite hasn't raced so frequently this year and may have a bit more left in the end. Pleasant Prince will probably be coming late, but I can't see him getting up in time. If Aikenite sticks close to the pace, he will probably fade. If he comes from behind, me might just get there. As for Miner's Reserve and Soaring Empire, both of them have a shot at winning, but I just can't see them doing it. Those are my final thoughts.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
Now, as there is only one week left before the Derby, there aren’t exactly a ton of races remaining. As I glance over my National Stakes Conditions booklet, I see only a few stakes races worth mentioning. I'll begin with the Withers Stakes and Aqueduct.
The grade III Withers Stakes used to be a very prestigious race. In recent years, however, it has been reduced to nothing more than a prep for the Preakness. Still, the one mile race has attracted a quality field of three year olds this year, although as far as I know none of them are aiming for the Triple Crown. But you never know what might happen . . .
I'm only going to briefly describe the race, but I'll try to be as thorough as possible. The heavy favorite will likely be D' Funnybone, who will be trying for his fifth graded stakes win. He is undefeated this year, with dual seven furlong grade II victories, but the question is can he go a mile? There is a fair amount of speed in this race, most of it coming from Most Happy Fella and Castaneda. Interestingly, Most Happy Fella is the number one horse, D' Funnybone the number two horse, Castaneda the number three. There could be an interesting speed dual early. If that was to be the case, than Afleet Again and Ibboyee might come running late. I would not be surprised at all if D' Funnybone is upset. Finally, there is the number five horse Spangled Star. Nobody seems to think that he has a chance, but you never know. He only has to carry 116 pounds, the same as Most Happy Fella, and he might just have a shot.
RACE RESULTS
First off, I shall recap the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland.
The mile and a sixteenth event drew a tough field of twelve, and Connemara was made the slight favorite over Uptowncharlybrown. Bushwhacked and Krypton were also well liked.
The way I saw it, there was just enough speed that the winner would come from behind. I just couldn't see Krypton or Exhi wiring the race. I felt that Call Shot would sit just off the pace and win by a length or so, with Uptowncharlybrown rallying late for second and Connemara getting up for third.
Exhi went wire-to-wire. Connemara finished tenth and Call Shot eleventh.
It just goes to show that I should stay away from Keeneland. I do okay handicapping the little races there, but I always falter when it comes to the stakes races. Exhi, sent off at nearly 20-1, set pretty good fractions from the start and held off Bushwhacked and Uptowncharlybrown for the win. (But I did correctly predict Chief Counsel to come in fourth.)
So here are the final results. . .
1 Exhi
2 Bushwhacked
3 Uptowncharlybrown
4 Chief Counsel
5 Prince Will I Am
6 Kettle River
7 Distorted Dave
8 Heavenville
9 Krypton
10 Connemara
11 Call Shot
12 Lonesome Street
. . . versus my selections.
1 Call Shot
2 Uptowncharlybrown
3 Connemara
4 Chief Counsel
5 Lonesome Street
6 Exhi
7 Distorted Dave
8 Krypton
9 Kettle River
10 Prince Will I Am
11 Heavenville
12 Bushwhacked
I didn't do very well, but I didn't do all that terrible. (Okay, I did rotten. I had the winner to finish sixth and the runner up to finish last. The only horses I was right about were Chief Counsel and Distorted Dave!)
But I'm satisfied with the results. Although none of the runners will be making it to the Derby, it was still a good prep, and one of the runners might end up in either the Preakness or the Belmont.
OTHER RACE RESULTS
To begin with, there was the six furlong KHEY Y-96 Sprint Stakes at Sunland Park. A field of nine was drawn, the favorite being Malibu Mystic. My personal pick was Haitian Hero, and despite the fact that his morning line odds were something like 9-2, he was sent off at 22-1.
In the early going, Malibu Mystic led, with El Confidential, a 25-1 shot, and Haitian Hero pressing him on the outside. But as they started their drives, Malibu Mystic gave way, leaving Haitian Hero and El Confidential to battle it out. Under the wire it was Haitian Hero, El Confidential second. Timbavati made a lot of ground to finish third. Malibu Mystic finished eighth, beaten seventeen lengths.
Then there was a nine furlong turf allowance race at Keeneland. For three year olds, my pick was Center Divider, and he was sent off as the 3-2 favorite. Also well liked was Mister Marti Gras.
In the early going, Justamatteroftime set the pace, followed closely by Patti's Kitten and Down With Dixie. Center Divider sat fourth for much of the race.
However, around the final turn, Center Divider began his run. Moving strongly while four wide, he took the lead at the eighth pole and drew off to win by four. Patti's Kitten, at 10-1, finished second, with Looks Purrrfect third. Mister Marti Gras was fourth.
And finally, there was a mile and a sixteenth allowance race on the turf at Keeneland. For three year old fillies, the race drew six runners. The narrowest of favorites was Lisa's Kitten, with Joharmony the second choice. Lucky Lass and Laura Babe were also well bet.
As it turned out, the order of finish was nearly identical to the odds they were sent off at. Joharmany, my pick, finished first by a neck, with Lisa's Kitten second, three quarters of a length in front of Lucky Lass. It was another six back to Laura Babe, with Full Storm and Wildcat Dreamer trailing. So the winner was 2-1, the runner up was 2-1, the third place finisher was 3-1, the fourth place finisher 4-1, the fifth place finisher 11-1, and the trailer 19-1. The bettors at Keeneland were almost completely right. If Lisa's Kitten had gotten up in time, they would have been completely right. Wow.
UNDERCOVER AT THE DOWNS
With the Kentucky Derby coming closer every minute, "Undercover at the Downs" is dedicated to helping sort out all the stuff that is going on at Churchill Downs, including workouts, possible equipment changes, and other news. To begin, here are some contenders who have worked out over the past week or so.
WORKOUTS
APRIL 15th
Hurricane Ike breezed four furlongs in :48 flat.
Jackson Bend breezed four furlongs in :47 2/5.
Privilaged breezed four furlongs in :48 flat.
Thomas Got Even breezed four furlongs in :47 2/5.
Wow Wow Wow breezed four furlongs in :47 1/5.
Conveyance breezed five furlongs in 1:00 3/5.
Lookin at Lucky breezed five furlongs in 1:01 1/5.
APRIL 16th --- Churchill Downs
Guys Reward breezed four furlongs in :49 flat.
Ice Box breezed four furlongs in :48 2/5.
Jody Slew breezed four furlongs in :50 flat.
Morning Line breezed four furlongs in :47 3/5.
Seeking the Title breezed four furlongs in :50 1/5.
Quiet Temper breezed five furlongs in :59 3/5.
Stay Put breezed five furlongs in 1:00 4/5.
APRIL 17th --- Churchill Training
Dean's Kitten breezed five furlongs in :59 4/5, the co-fastest of ten workouts at that distance.
Kera's Kitten breezed five furlongs in 1:01 2/5.
APRIL 17th --- Churchill Downs
Aspire breezed three furlongs in :36 flat, the co-fastest of twenty-one workouts at that distance.
Naiche breezed three furlongs in :37 3/5 on a good track.
Cool Bullet breezed four furlongs in :47 3/5.
Miner's Reserve breezed four furlongs in :46 flat, the fastest of fifty-four workouts at that distance.
Fist of Rage breezed four furlongs in :47 3/5 on a good track.
Sheer Beauty breezed four furlongs in :48 2/5 on a good track.
Sidney's Candy breezed five furlongs in :59 4/5.
Champagne d'Oro breezed six furlongs in 1:14 flat.
Crisp breezed six furlongs in 1:15 1/5.
Elusive Jozi breezed six furlongs in 1:12 3/5 on a good track, the fastest of eight workouts at that distance.
APRIL 18th --- Churchill Downs
Bravo Whiskey breezed four furlongs in :50 3/5.
Don't Put It Back breezed four furlongs in :49 2/5.
Raging Wit breezed four furlongs in :48 3/5.
Backtalk breezed five furlongs in 1:04 flat.
Raphael Alexandro breezed five furlongs in 1:02 flat. (Not a contender, but a cute name.)
Safe Trip breezed five furlongs in :59 flat, the fastest of thirty-two workouts at that distance.
Thiskyhasnolimit breezed five furlongs in 1:02 flat.
Vow to Wager breezed five furlongs in 1:01 4/5.
APRIL 19th --- Churchill Downs
Decelerator breezed four furlongs in :47 flat.
Guru breezed four furlongs in :51 flat.
Necassary Evil breezed four furlongs in :51 4/5.
Bell's Shoes breezed five furlongs in 1:00 4/5.
Dublin breezed five furlongs in :59 1/5, the fastest of forty-four workouts at that distance.
Game On Dude breezed five furlongs in 1:00 3/5.
Northern Giant breezed five furlongs in 1:02 1/5.
Crider breezed six furlongs in 1:13 1/5.
Hot Dixie Chick breezed six furlongs in 1:13 3/5.
APRIL 20th --- Churchill Downs
Beautician breezed five furlongs in 1:00 2/5.
Diva Delite breezed five furlongs in 1:01 2/5.
Hurrican Ike breezed five furlongs in 1:00 1/5.
Line of David breezed five furlongs in 1:02 flat.
Noble's Promise breezed five furlongs in :59 4/5, the fastest of thirty workouts at that distance.
Privilaged breezed five furlongs in 1:00 4/5.
Awesome Act breezed five furlongs in 1:12 3/5.
Tidal Pool breezed five furlongs in 1:12 3/5.
APRIL 21st --- Churchill Downs
Conveyance breezed five furlongs in :58 3/5.
Fuzzy Britches breezed five furlongs in 1:04 3/5.
Homeboykris breezed five furlongs in 1:14 4/5.
Lookin at Lucky breezed five furlongs in 1:12 flat.
APRIL 22nd --- Churchill Downs
Our Dark Knight breezed four furlongs in :48 2/5.
Thomas Got Even breezed four furlongs in :47 4/5.
Lost Aptitude breezed five furlongs in 1:01 2/5.
Jackson Bend breezed five furlongs in 1:00 flat, the co-fastest of twenty workouts at that distance.
APRIL 23rd --- Churchill Downs
Doubles Partner breezed four furlongs in :49 flat on a sloppy track.
Ice Box breezed four furlongs in :46 2/5 on a sloppy track, the fastest of twenty-seven workouts at that distance.
Jody Slew breezed four furlongs in :48 2/5 on a sloppy track.
Morning Line breezed four furlongs in :47 1/5 on a sloppy track.
Stay Put breezed four furlongs in :49 flat on a wet fast track.
Ailalea breezed five furlongs in 1:00 flat on a sloppy track.
Colizeo breezed five furlongs in 1:00 flat on a sloppy track.
Paddy O’Prado breezed five furlongs in :58 2/5 on a sloppy track, the fastest of twenty-one workouts at that distance.
Quiet Temper breezed five furlongs in 1:03 3/5 on a sloppy track.
Crisp breezed five furlongs in 1:14 3/5 on a sloppy track, the co-fastest of two workouts at that distance.
APRIL 23rd --- Churchill Training
Dean’s Kitten breezed five furlongs in :1:01 1/5 on a sloppy track.
Kera’s Kitten breezed five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 on a sloppy track, the co-fastest of thirteen workouts at that distance.
Stately Victor breezed five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 on a sloppy track, the co-fastest of thirteen workouts at that distance.
OTHER TRIPLE CROWN NEWS
It sounds as though Lookin at Lucky will not wear blinkers in the Kentucky Derby.
She Be Wild is out of the Kentucky Oaks due to a leg injury. However, she should be able to return to racing later this year.
Calvin Borel is confident that he can get Super Saver to relax in the Kentucky Derby.
Robby Albarado has chosen Endorsement over Noble's Promise as his Kentucky Derby mount. This may be partly due to the fact that Noble's Promise may not run in the Derby.
Noble's Promise worked a blazing five furlongs at Churchill Downs on April 20th, and is now "60-40" for the Derby.
Todd Pletcher has announced that he is considering running Devil May Care in the Kentucky Derby. This decision may be based on the fact that just three days ago, the filly worked the fastest of fourteen five furlongs workouts at Palm Meadows Training Center. Among the horses who worked slower than Devil May Care were A Little Warm, Discreetly Mine, Eskendereya, Ibboyee, Mission Impazible, and Rule. Hmm . . .
AND NOW ONE LAST THING. . .
Can you believe that I'm not done yet? Nope, I still have one last thing to say.
With only one week remaining until Derby day, things are really starting to get hot. All the focus is on Eskendereya, Lookin at Lucky, Sidney's Candy, and a few others who have worked out sharply.
However, it is worth mentioning that there is a colt who is being overlooked, and has been overlooked for many months.
I'm going to say it now, because if he was to win the Derby, I would like to be one of the few people who can say that they considered him a contender. His workouts have been rather good, and his trainer is confident that his colt will get a piece of it. Who is this colt?
I'll tell you on Thursday.
Why Thursday? Well, for one thing, I would like to keep this colt's identity secret for a while, because it's fun to look forward to secrets. For another thing, I would like to wait until after the post positions are drawn, because that way I can truly tell you what I think of him.
But I'm not going to let you forget about him. Every blog post from now until I reveal who he is, I'm going to mention "The Mystery Colt" who has a big chance at hitting the board in, or even winning, the Kentucky Derby.
And that, my friends, is all. Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
(P.S. After the Derby Trial is run, I will be post something more or less every day until the Derby is over. Also, on May 1st, I will be live on my blog, updating as post time draws nearer. This is going to be so much fun! ! !)
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