Four weeks until the Kentucky Derby. Just twenty eight days. Last week, several pretenders were eliminated. Many more will be thrown out during the next two weeks. Expect another contender or two to emerge as well. It's bound to happen. Many fascinating things happened last week, but before I recap them, I must discuss what's happening this week. What a great week it's going to be.
WOOD MEMORIAL (gr. I) ---- Aqueduct, Race 9, April 3rd
9 Furlongs (Dirt)
Of all the Triple Crown prep races this week, this one is probably the most solid. Four major players on the Trail turned out to do battle, along with two longshots who have the potential to hit the board, or maybe even win.
To begin with, there is the number one horse, Most Happy Fella. The son of Ecton Park has been improving ever so slightly in each start, but would need to really step up tomorrow to be in the mix. He has never started in a stakes race, but has raced at Aqueduct five times already. He will likely set the pace tomorrow. He will carry 123 pounds, the same as all of the other entries, and will be ridden by A. Napravnik.
Then there is the number two horse, Awesome Act. The son of Awesome Again was very impressive in the Gotham Stakes, and he is expected to provide most of the competition for Eskendereya. However, it is possible that he could regress off of his last race, which could leave the door open for a longshot to steal his place. We'll see what he can do. He will be ridden by Julien Leparoux.
This brings us to the number three horse Eskendereya. The son of Giant's Causeway is one of the current favorites for the Kentucky Derby and comes off of a tremendous run in the Fountain of Youth Stakes six weeks ago, where he destroyed Jackson Bend by eight and a half lengths. Like Awesome Act, it is possible that he could bounce off of his last race. If so, it's possible for a longshot to steal the race. He is the morning line favorite at odds of 4-5 and will be ridden by John Velazquez.
Then there is the number four horse, Schoolyard Dreams. The son of Stephen Got Even comes into tomorrow's race off of a nose loss to top Triple Crown candidate Odysseus, while finishing a half length in front of Super Saver. With a blazing :46 4/5 workout last Saturday, I think that he is ready to run the race of his life tomorrow. If anyone is going to upset the big two, I think that it will be him. He will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez.
Now we come to the number five horse, Jackson Bend. The son of Hear No Evil was running incredibly well at Calder last year, but has been unable to win in two starts this year, finishing second both times. I think he is ready to run his best race tomorrow, and with Calvin Borel in the saddle, I think that he is capable of upsetting the big two.
Finally, there is the number six horse Canivore. The son of Giant's Causeway comes into the Wood Memorial off of a seven length win in a $27,000 maiden race at Laurel Park. He has been improving in leaps and bounds and might have a shot at hitting the board if something drastic happens. He will be ridden by J. Shepherd.
So, here are my selections for the Wood Memorial. . .
1 Schoolyard Dreams
2 Eskendereya
3 Awesome Act
4 Jackson Bend
5 Canivore
6 Most Happy Fella
I don't know. . . this is a tough race to figure out. Awesome Act, Schoolyard Dreams, Eskendereya, and Jackson Bend are all pretty evenly matched, and if one of them doesn't fire, Carivore and Most Happy Fella are right there, waiting to pick up the pieces. I know that Eskendereya is a very good colt, but I don't think that he is going to duplicate his Fountain of Youth run. I think that Awesome Act is going to regress, but I think that Schoolyard Dreams is going to run his best race to date. I know that Jackson Bend has great talent, and I know that Calvin Borel is going to get a great race out of him, but I just don't think that he is going to get the distance. Canivore and Most Happy Fella are about equal, and both of them have a shot at hitting the board. It's going to be a great race. And it's going to be very influential.
SANTA ANITA DERBY (gr. I) ---- Santa Anita, Race 6, April 3rd
9 Furlongs (Synthetic)
Here it is --- the Santa Anita Derby. For many, this is the final chance for fine colts to prove that they are Triple Crown caliber. A tough field of ten has been drawn for this $750,000 prep race. Many of the colts here need to finish first or second to have any shot at making the Kentucky Derby. Those who don't finish in the top two will have to wait until the Preakness or the Belmont. Let's take a look at who's running.
First off, there is the number one horse Posse Power. The son of Posse most recently finished third behind Connemara in the El Camino Real Derby six weeks ago. He would have to really step up to contend here tomorrow, but who knows? He will carry 122 pounds, the same as everybody else, and will be ridden by L. Mawing.
Then there is the number two horse, Thomas Baines. The son of Johannesburg comes into the Santa Anita Derby off of a win in a one mile optional claiming race at this track just over a month ago. Prior to that, he finished sixth in the El Camino Real and third in the California Derby. Like Posse Power, he would need to show a lot of improvement to be in the mix. He will be ridden by J. Rosario.
Now we come to the number three horse, Who's Up. The son of Graeme Hall has not raced since winning the Generous Stakes on turf last November. He is perhaps the mystery colt in the race, for it is hard to say how well he will run.
This brings us to the number four horse Sidney's Candy. The son of Candy Ride has been very impressive so far, easily winning the grade II San Vicente on February 15th and fighting to the wire for victory in the grade II San Felipe Stakes three weeks ago. Both wins were in wire-to-wire fashion, which is going to be tough to do tomorrow. He's going to have to show another gear in the stretch if he wants to hold off Lookin at Lucky. He will be ridden by Joseph Talamo.
Then there is the number five horse, Setsuko. The son of Pleasantly Perfect most recently finished second to fellow Santa Anita Derby runner Alphie's Bet in the March 6th Sham Stakes. He is a very interesting colt, and may have a shot at winning tomorrow. He will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano, and is actually trained by Richard Mandella, who won four Breeders' Cup races at this track in 2003.
Now we come to the number six horse Caracortado. The son of Cat Dreams was undefeated in five starts, which included an easy win in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, before finishing third behind Sidney's Candy and Interactif in the San Felipe. However, in that race, he had very little pace to chase, which should not be a problem here tomorrow. He will be ridden by Paul Atkinson, who has ridden him in every one of his races so far.
This brings us to the morning line favorite, the colt everybody is talking about, the colt who is the current Kentucky Derby favorite. Lookin at Lucky. The son of Smart Strike has won six of seven races, his only loss coming by a head in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile after a nightmare trip, where he was carried six wide on the first turn and never got anywhere near the rail. He rebounded later that year to score in the CashCall Futurity last December, and then won the Rebel Stakes by a nose last March in his season debut. Trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Garrett Gomez, he is going to be tough to beat. Should he win, he will become the first two year old champion to win the Santa Anita Derby the following year since Affirmed. It would also provide Garrett Gomez with his third consecutive win in this race. . .
Then there is the number eight horse Cardiff Giant. The son of Yankee Gentleman has already started twelve times, and has been rather consistent this year, hitting the board in two graded stakes races before running fifth behind Lookin at Lucky in the Rebel Stakes. He would need to show something extra to hit the board here, but you never know what might happen.
Now we come to the number nine horse Skipshot. The son of Skip Away comes into the Santa Anita Derby off of a nose win in a one mile allowance race at Golden Gate Fields about three weeks ago. His final workout for this race was very good, and he may be overlooked by many. I think that he has a shot at getting a piece of it. He will be ridden by F. Alvarado.
Finally, there is the number ten horse Alphie's Bet. The son of Tribal Rule was very impressive while winning the Sham Stakes four weeks ago, and is one of the main contenders here tomorrow. With Alex Solis in the saddle, I will be watching him very closely.
So here are my selections for Santa Anita Derby. . .
1 Lookin at Lucky
2 Caracortado
3 Alphie's Bet
4 Sidney's Candy
5 Who's Up
6 Setsuko
7 Skipshot
8 Posse Power
9 Cardiff Giant
10 Thomas Baines
It was tough figuring out who would finish fifth through tenth, but I never paused for the top four. I believe that Lookin at Lucky is going to win rather easily tomorrow, with Caracortado redeeming himself with a good run. Alphie's Bet obviously has talent, but breaking from post ten isn't the greatest thing, and I'm just not hooked on him yet. I don't think the Sidney's Candy is going to hold on today, but I do think that Who's Up is overlooked and will run a big one at huge odds. Finally, I may have Setsuko a bit low, but I'm just not convinced that the Sham Stakes was that strong. We'll see what happens. No matter who wins, it's going to be a great race.
ILLINOIS DERBY (gr. II) ---- Hawthorne, Race 7, April 3rd
9 Furlongs (Dirt)
Of all the grand three year old races being run this week, I believe that this one I am most looking forward to. It has drawn a very nice eight horse field, of which every entry has a shot at winning. Not only is the purse a very large $500,000, but the winner will receive $300,000, which is more than enough to make it to the Kentucky Derby. I believe that a major Triple Crown contender is going to come from this race, just like Musket Man last year. Let's take a look at who's running. . .
I'll begin with the number one horse, American Lion. The son of Tiznow showed great potential last year after winning the grade III Hollywood Prevue Stakes at Hollywood Park, but has been rather disappointing this year, finishing third behind Caracortado and Dave in Dixie in the Robert B. Lewis and fourth behind Sidney's Candy, Interactif, and Caracortado in the San Felipe. However, he is bred to be a dirt horse, and is expected to run a better race tomorrow. He will be ridden by David Flores and may have a shot if the pace is slow. He will carry 122 pounds, the same as all of the other entries.
Then there is the number two horse, Stephen's Got Hope. The son of Stephen Got Even finished fifth, beaten fine lengths, in the San Felipe Stakes, but has a shot at turning in a better effort in his first start on dirt. He will be ridden by J. Garcia. I will be watching this one closely.
Now we come to the number three horse, Boulder Creek. Like Stephen's Got Hope, he was very disappointing in his last race, finishing fifth, beaten four and three quarter lengths, in the nine furlong Sham Stakes. However, he does have a chance to improve in his first start on dirt. He will be ridden by C. Emigh.
This brings us to the number four horse, Yawanna Twist. The son of Yonaguska comes into the Illinois Derby off of a runner up performance to top Kentucky Derby contender Awesome Act in the Gotham Stakes four weeks ago. He is the 4-1 morning line third choice, but I think he is one of the top contenders. He will be ridden by Edgar Prado, who rode Barbaro to victory in the 2006 Kentucky Derby.
But we mustn’t forget Turf Melody. The son of Maria’s Mon will be making his tenth start. Hawthorne will be the tenth race track at which he has raced. Ridden tomorrow by Jeremy Rose, he comes into the Illinois Derby off of a fourth place finish to Awesome Act in the Gotham. His morning line odds are 6-1, but I think that he is one of the major contenders.
This brings us to the number six horse, Dave in Dixie. The son of Dixie Union finished second to Caracortado in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes before ending up sixth, beaten by nearly six lengths, in the San Felipe. However, that poor showing can be explained by the lack of pace in that race, which I thoroughly discussed in one of my other posts. I'm willing to give him a shot at redeeming himself tomorrow. He will be ridden by J. Valdivia, Jr.
Now we come to the number seven horse, the morning line favorite. He is Backtalk, who I believe is the most successful son of Smarty Jones to date. With $170,000 in graded earnings, all of it coming from his fine summer 2009 form, he is probably going to make the Kentucky Derby no matter what he does today. But a good effort tomorrow could make him one of the favorites. In 2009, he won the Bashford Manor Stakes and the Sanford Stakes before running fourth in the Champagne and eighth in the Breeders' Futurity. Given some time off, he rebounded with a fine win in the Sportsman's Paradise Stakes on February 26th despite some traffic issues. His final workout for the Illinois Derby was six furlongs in 1:09 3/5, which has raised some concern to how well he will run tomorrow, but I think that he is ready to go. He will be ridden by M. Mena.
Finally, we come to the number eight horse Game Ball. The son of Sky Mesa is two-for-two in 2010, his most recent win coming in an optional claiming race on March 5th down in Florida. He is probably out classed here, but he may be able to throw in a good run. He will be ridden by W. Martinez.
So here are my selections. . .
1 Backtalk
2 American Lion
3 Yawanna Twist
4 Dave in Dixie
5 Turf Melody
6 Stephen's Got Hope
7 Game Ball
8 Boulder Creek
It was a tough race to figure out, but I believe that Backtalk can win despite the fast workout. American Lion has obvious talent, but has run into some trouble in his last two starts. I think he will improve on dirt and the pace should be slow enough for him to hang on to second. I have liked Yawanna Twist since the Gotham, but I'm not sure if he is ready for this race. He needs to finish second to have any shot at making the Kentucky Derby, so we'll see what happens. As for Dave in Dixie, I have always liked this colt, but I don't think that he is going to get there tomorrow. To make the Kentucky Derby, he would have to win, so a lot hangs on the wire at Hawthorne. As for Turf Melody, he is obviously a very tough colt, and he is one of my personal favorites here, but I just can't see him winning against this field. As for the other three, they all have a shot at hitting the board, but I can't really see any of them winning. But perhaps Stephen's Got Hope could surprise everyone. We'll see.
Those are my final thoughts on the big three.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
As usual, there are other great races this Saturday that I should mention, and this lot deserves a lot of attention for it is a very good set of "undercard" races.
To begin with, there is the seven furlong grade III Bay Shore Stakes at Aqueduct for three year olds. The big name is Eightfiveinafifty, who has not raced since blowing the turn in the Whirlaway Stakes early last February. He has been training very well since the incident, and is back to a one turn race, trying to prove once again that he is a top class colt who deserves attention. He will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez. His main competition may come from El Rocco, who will carry co-top weight of 120 pounds and will be ridden by Julien Leparoux. Personally, I like the name Noah's Dream, and believe that Casaneda will be in the mix. It should be a good race. Perhaps the world record is in danger. . . (ha ha)
Next up is the grade I Ashland Stakes at Keeneland for three year old fillies. The race has drawn the Eclipse Champion for two year old filly She Be Wild, as well as the very tough Negligee, who beat She Be Wild in the Darley Alcibiades Stakes.
Of course, She Be Wild should be able to present herself well, but she comes into the Ashland off of a very poor effort in the Forward Gal Stakes last January, finishing fifth, ten lengths behind runaway winner Bickersons. That was her first start on dirt, but she returns to synthetics tomorrow.
As for Negligee, I believe that she will do a lot more than run well. I believe she is ready to run a tremendous race and probably beat She Be Wild. Other contenders are Protesting Beautician, Evening Jewel, and Upperline. It's going to be a great race, but I do think that Negligee is going to be the winner, with Evening Jewel running a fine race as well. Apple Charlotte could also be in the mix.
Finally, it's worth mentioning that the seven furlong grade I Carter Handicap is to be run right after the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. The race is for three year olds and up, but of course, it drew no three year olds. I'm mentioning it because last year's Illinois Derby winner Musket Man is back for another shot at winning a grade I. His main competition is expected to be Munnings, who is actually the morning line favorite at 4-5. Both colts battled with Rachel Alexandra at one point in their lifetime, with Musket Man finishing third to her in the Preakness and Munnings finishing third behind the Horse of the Year in the Haskell Invitational. It should be a great race.
With all that said, I shall now recap what happened last week, beginning with the Louisiana Derby.
RACE RECAPS
The Lousiana Derby did not go as I thought it would. I have been a Ron the Greek fan since he won the Lecomte, and I thought that today would be his day. It wasn't, as he finished sixth behind Mission Impazible, who scored a three quarter length win over a very stubborn A Little Warm. Drosselmeyer ended up third, with Risen Start winner Discreetly Mine in fourth.
So here are the results. . .
1 Mission Impazible
2 A Little Warm
3 Drosselmeyer
4 Discreetly Mine
5 Stay Put
6 Ron the Greek
7 The Program
8 Mister Marti Gras
9 Fly Down
10 Wow Wow Wow
11 Hotep
12 Island Soul
13 Backtrack
. . . versus my selections.
1 Ron the Greek
2 Discreetly Mine
3 Drosselmeyer
4 Fly Down
5 Stay Put
6 The Program
7 A Little Warm
8 Backtrack
9 Mission Impazible
10 Mister Marti Gras
11 Wow Wow Wow
12 Island Soul
13 Hotep
Now, it was a very close race, with only about twelve lengths separating the twelve finishers. (Backtrack was eased.) From first to ninth was only 6 3/4 lengths, and the top four finishers were only one and a quarter lengths apart. That said, I was completely wrong about Mission Impazible, who made Dublin, Conveyance, and Cardiff Giant look that much better, as those three beat him soundly in the Southwest Stakes last February. I was right about Discreetly Mine not getting the distance, and that Drosselmeyer would finish third, but Ron the Greek just didn't put in his final rally. However, he was beaten by only three and a half lengths, and I would still like him in the Kentucky Derby if he had the earnings to go there, which he doesn't. But perhaps he is still a Belmont Stakes horse.
As for other race results, Dean's Kitten won the Lane's End Stakes, stamping his ticket to the Kentucky Derby as he destroyed Northern Giant and Connemara fairly easily. Double's Partner, who has beaten Lentenor in a nine furlong turf allowance race, finished eighth. I don't think that Dean's Kitten is Triple Crown caliber, but it's hard to say for sure.
Then there was the rich Sunland Derby in New Mexico. Conveyance was the heavy favorite, and rightfully so, but he ended up finishing second, three lengths behind the 12-1 upset winner Endorsement. The latter finished the nine furlongs in 1:48 2/5, which was only a fifth of a second off of the forty-nine year old track record. Tempted to Tapit was another three lengths back in third. So Endorsement moves on to everyone's list of top Kentucky Derby contenders, while Conveyance drops a few notches.
But that's not all. In the Fantasy Stakes, which happened only a few hours ago, Blind Luck proved that she may be even better on dirt, winning rather easily by three lengths in the four horse field. Just remember that Rachel Alexandra and Eight Belles won the Fantasy Stakes on their way to stardom.
Then there were a bunch of little races all over the country. The seven and a half furlong on the turf Grindstone Stakes was snatched up by Working for Hops, the one mile and a sixteenth Rushaway Stakes was claimed by Exhi in nearly wire-to-wire fashion, the six furlong Hansel Stakes was won easily by Cool Bullet, who defeated a solid field which included Strapping Groom, Kera's Kitten, and Lucky Chuck. The final time was 1:08 4/5, which was quite good.
Out at Hawthorne, Windy City Cat proved best in a six furlong allowance race, winning by two lengths in wire-to-wire fashion. The final time of 1:11 2/5 was very slow, more than four seconds off of the track record, but you never know where the stakes winners might come from.
Then there was the mile and a sixteenth Transylvania Stakes on the turf at Keeneland. Sent off as the favorite, undefeated Nordic Truce got up for a neck win, with morning line favorite Macias finishing up next to last.
For the fillies, there was the one mile and a sixteenth Fair Grounds Oaks, which was won by Quiet Temper, who just got up to claim a half length victory from Champagne d'Oro, who led for much of the race. It was a dead heat for third between Sheer Beauty and Seeking the Title, and Jody Slew finished eighth. The latter's poor performance can be excused, as she was forced to miss training after getting cast in her stall.
Then there was the one mile Bourbonette Oaks at Turfway Park. The winner was Orchestrator, who battled gamely with Age of Humor down the stretch to secure a neck win. Favored Helen Belen finished sixth, while second choice Cascading ended up last.
Out at Santa Anita, there was the six and a half furlong Santa Paula Stakes. The favorite was Sister Dawn, but I believe that La Nez could beat her. La Nez did beat her by a neck, but both were soundly defeating by runaway winner Tanda, the longshot in the five horse field at 6-1.
And last but not least, there was a maiden special weight race for TWO YEAR OLDS at Keeneland! I have been anticipating such a thing for over a month now, and I ended up picking the winner. I believed that Wetzel was going to win, and he did, securing an hard fought nose victory. The heavy favorite, Sweet William, ended up fourth after challenging for the lead.
So, it's going to be a great day of racing tomorrow. Enjoy!
-Keelerman
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