(Note: Due to the fact that the Kentucky Derby is only a week away, I have decided to turn "The Twenty" into "The Twenty for the Kentucky Derby". When the Kentucky Derby is over, it will turn into "The Fourteen for the Preakness", and when the Preakness is over, "The Fourteen for the Belmont".
1. DUBLIN Afleet Alex - Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird D. Wayne Lukas
Worked a bullet five furlongs the other day and seems to like Churchill Downs. He will not be the favorite in May, but I'm going to stick with this colt.
2. LOOKIN AT LUCKY Smart Strike - Private Feeling, by Belong to Me Bob Baffert
He is training beautifully at Churchill Downs and may be peaking at the right time. He is one of the few colts who has proven that he can overcome serious traffic and still run well.
3. SUPER SAVER Maria's Mon - Super Charger, by A.P. Indy Todd Pletcher
He is certainly going to be fit and ready for the Derby. And with Calvin Borel on his back, he will likely get a perfect trip. I imagine that everybody expects this colt to be on the lead, but I think he is capable of sitting off the pace.
4. ESKENDEREYA Giant's Causeway - Alderbaran Light, by Seattle Slew Todd Pletcher
There's something about this colt that bothers me. He hasn't really been challenged. He hasn't proven himself in a tough, rough race. He may be in over his head in the Derby, not because he lacks experience, but because he hasn't faced trouble lately.
5. SIDNEY'S CANDY Candy Ride - Fair Exchange, by Storm Cat John W. Sadler
I suddenly got to thinking about this colt and realized that he seems to stumble out of the gate rather frequently. If he stumbles out of the gate on Derby day, he may never recover. Unless, of course, he is a super horse.
6. ENDORSEMENT Distorted Humor - Charmed Gift, by A.P. Indy Shannon Ritter
If any inexperienced colt is going to win the Derby it will likely be this one. He has been very impressive so far, and might just have what it takes to win the Derby.
7. AWESOME ACT Awesome Again - Houdini's Honey, by Mr. Prospector Jeremy Noseda
He took to Churchill Downs quite well in training, but I'm just not sure if he is talented enough. But I do think he is sitting on a big race and is ready to fire his best shot on Derby day.
8. ICE BOX Pulpit - Spice Island, by Tabasco Cat Nick Zito
Worked a rocket half mile in the slop at Churchill Downs. It was a brilliant workout, but was it too fast? I'm concerned that it may have taken too much out of this colt. But if it didn't, and that was just a routine workout. . .
9. RULE Roman Ruler - Personal Flag, by Rockcide Todd Pletcher
Everyone expects the pace in the Kentucky Derby to be super fast, but what if that doesn't happen? What if everybody takes their horses back to avoid the insane pace and one horse is left on the lead with no on pushing him? If that were to happen, I would go with Rule to wire the race.
10. LINE OF DAVID Lion Heart - Emma's Dilemma, by Capote John W. Sadler
Let's see here, undefeated while wearing blinkers, undefeated on dirt and turf, he's got courage, he wouldn't let Super Saver and Dublin past him, and he can set quick fractions. Just think what this colt might do if he ran even a half second slower in the Derby than he did in Arkansas!
11. CONVEYANCE Indian Charlie - Emptythetill, by Holy Bull Bob Baffert
Everything that I just said about Rule goes for Conveyance too. He is very fast, and is training very well at Churchill Downs, and if the insane pace doesn't happen, this colt could go wire-to-wire.
12. JACKSON BEND Hear No Evil - Sexy Stockings, by Tabasco Cat Nick Zito
How can you not like this colt? He gives everything he has in every race, and if it weren’t for Eskendereya, than he would be the Fountain of Youth/Wood Memorial winner. If it weren’t for Eskendereya, this colt might be favored for the Derby! He tries so hard that I'm not really concerned about his apparent stamina limitations. He can do this.
13. MISSION IMPAZIBLE Unbridled's Song - La Pez, by Hold Your Peace Todd Pletcher
A lot of people have been trashing the Louisiana Derby, saying that the horses running were no good. The same thing was being said about the 2005 Santa Anita Derby, but that race provided four of the top six finishers in that year's Kentucky Derby, including Giacomo. Don't throw out Mission Impazible yet!
14. THE MYSTERY HORSE ??? - ???, by ??? ???
Say hello to the mystery horse, the colt whose identity won't be revealed until Thursday. Obviously, you can narrow it down to a few horses, as most of the Derby contenders are in the Top Twenty, but I will reveal that he is one of the horses on the "Watch Very Closely" list.
15. STATELY VICTOR Ghostzapper - Collect the Cash, by Dynaformer Micheal Maker
This colt looked incredible while winning the Blue Grass, and he has been training well at Churchill, but I must be careful with Blue Grass winners. All together too often they look unstoppable but manage to stop in the Derby.
16. AMERICAN LION Tiznow - Storm Tide, by Storm Cat Eoin Harty
I have loved this colt since his win in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes last year, but he just hasn't shown the ability to win the Kentucky Derby. Still, there's something about him that interests me and I just can't drop him off my list until I discover what it is.
17. NOBLE'S PROMISE Cuvee - The Devil's Trick, by Clever Trick Kenneth G. McPeek
Had a really good workout at Churchill Downs, but nobody knows if he is going to the Derby or not. Until they announce that he will run, I'm going to keep him down here.
18. PLEASANT PRINCE Indy King - Archduchess, by Wesley Ward
Obviously, the runner up in the Florida Derby deserves to run in the Kentucky Derby, but he is still not in. He gets his final prep in the Derby Trial, and if he wins, he will run in the Derby. But will he be too tired? Until he is actually in the Derby, I'm going to keep him down here.
19. DEVIL MAY CARE Malibu Moon - Kelli's Ransom, by Red Ransom Todd Pletcher
Now that she is being considered for the Derby, I'm going to have to include her in my Top Twenty. If you can believe it, she won the nine furlong Bonnie Miss Stakes, on the undercard of the Florida Derby, in a faster time than Ice Box won the big one! This filly may just be a major contender. With the success of Rags to Riches and Rachel Alexandra, who knows what might happen? But until she is actually entered in the Derby, I'm going to keep her right here.
20. EIGHTFIVEINAFIFTY Forest Camp - Lifeinthefastlane, by Unbridled's Song Gary Contessa
I never though I would see this colt listed as a possible starter in the Kentucky Derby. I don't think that he has a chance, but then again, we don't know how far he can carry his speed. Also, he has been setting such fast fractions in his sprint races that a 1:09 4/5 for three quarters of a mile in the Derby would be a workout.
WATCH VERY CLOSELY
BACKTALK Not sure if he's going to get in.
DEAN'S KITTEN Training well at Churchill.
DISCREETLY MINE Not crying for distance.
HOMEBOYKRIS Has not raced since February 27th.
INTERACTIF May not run in the Derby.
MAKE MUSIC FOR ME Not sure if he's going to get in.
AIKENITE Will run in the Derby Trial, probably won't run in the Derby.
GAME ON DUDE Will run in the Derby Trial, doesn't have the graded earnings.
PADDY O'PRADO Nice run in the Blue Grass, training well at Churchill.
SOARING EMPIRE Will run in the Derby Trial, doesn't have the graded earnings.
Now, I suppose you're all wondering why Blind Luck isn't on the list anymore. Well, I can't include her because she's going to run in the Oaks. But if her connections decide to run her in the Derby, I will put her back on. And I will put her in the top five.
-Keelerman
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