THE DREAM DERBY

As I am writing this, it is less than two weeks until the Kentucky Derby. As there is not a lot of racing action until then, (with the exception of the Derby Trial) I decided to try and come up with a fun poll to vote on.

And suddenly an idea comes to me.

I climb out of my chair and rush to my stacks of Blood-Horse issues. There's at least 150 of them, some without the first few pages, some quite bent, but all of them still useful.

After a little search, I manage to find the Triple Crown issues from last year. In those issues are charts showing the past winners of the Triple Crown races, dating all the way back to the first runnings. But all I care about are the winners from the years 2000-2009. Ten years of Triple Crown races. Thirty individual races. I ask myself this: How many colts and fillies did it take to win those thirty races?

The answer is twenty-four. Twenty-four three year olds accounted for the past thirty Triple Crown races. Now let's imagine for a second that Churchill Downs added one more gate to the outside of the auxiliary gate --- just an extra four slots. We know that it is possible, for twenty-three horses ran in the 1974 Kentucky Derby, so what's one more? Now let's imagine that those twenty-four three year olds were all racing in the same year. Let's also imagine that they are at their best, ready for the biggest performance of their lifetime.

So here is the poll --- If those twenty-four three year olds all met in the starting gate for a Dream Kentucky Derby, who would win?

Now, to make this even more fun, I'm going to do a random post position draw, so if your pick draws gate twenty-four, you might want to go with someone else.

I will also provide morning line odds and jockeys.

So here is the field for the Dream Kentucky Derby. . .

Post Horse Jockey Morning Line Odds
1. Bernardini J. Castalleno 15-1
2. Jazil F. Jara 30-1
3. Afleet Alex Jeremy Rose 9-2
4. Smarty Jones Stewart Elliot 8-1
5. Funny Cide Jose Santos 30-1
6. Point Given Gary Stevens 3-1
7. War Emblem Victor Espinoza 35-1
8. Rags to Riches J. Velazquez 20-1
9. Barbaro Edgar Prado 12-1
10. Red Bullet Martin Garcia 20-1
11. Curlin Robby Albarado 7-2
12. Street Sense Garrett Gomez 12-1
13. Birdstone Ramon Dominguez 15-1
14. Empire Maker Jerry Bailey 15-1
15. Commendable Pat Day 50-1
16. Giacomo Mike Smith 30-1
17. Rachel Alexandra Calvin Borel 10-1
18. Monarchos J. Chavez 25-1
19. Mine That Bird Russel Baze 25-1
20. Summer Bird Kent Desormeaux 15-1
21. Sarava Tyler Baze 50-1
22. Da'Tara Alan Garcia 75-1
23. Big Brown Julien Leparoux 6-1
24. Fusaichi Pegasus Joseph Talamo 30-1

Now, with the jockeys, I had to do a little guessing. Of the twenty-four horses, Kent Desormeaux, Calvin Borel, and Edgar Prado all rode three a piece, and Jerry Bailey two of them. I'm just guessing when I put Edgar Prado on Barbaro rather than Sarava or Birdstone, and I'm doing the same when I put Kent Desormeaux on Summer Bird, etc. etc. If those jockeys were actually faced with those decisions, they might do something different. But I had to make the decisions for them here, so I did what I thought they would do. As for the horses who are left without mounts, I put Martin Garcia on Red Bullet, Garrett Gomez on Street Sense, Joseph Talamo on Fusaichi Pegasus, Russel Baze on Mine That Bird, Tyler Baze on Sarava, and Ramon Dominguez on Birdstone. If you have any thoughts on who should ride who, feel free to tell me.

Now for my thoughts on this race. If I was going to try and pick the winner of this race, I would have to go with Curlin. Perhaps he was a bit inexperienced when he took his shot at the Triple Crown, but managed to finish third in the Derby, first in the Preakness, and second in the Belmont. And he went on to even greater things. . .

Of course, you can't ignore Afleet Alex and Point Given. Although Point Given failed to win the 2001 Kentucky Derby and had no obvious excuses, he go on to prove that he was an amazing colt, his career reaching the climax when he won the Belmont Stakes by twelve and a quarter lengths. As for Afleet Alex, I'm sure that if he had not come out of the 2005 Kentucky Derby with a lung infection, he would be a Triple Crown winner. He was one of those very special colts who could do incredible things. He just didn't have enough time to prove it.

What about the fillies? There would only be two running, Rags to Riches and Rachel Alexandra. The former had the stamina, the latter the speed. Both were great champions. Although I think that Rachel Alexandra was the better filly overall, I would go with Rags to Riches here. For one thing, Rachel Alexandra would have to break from post seventeen, while Rags to Riches breaks from gate eight. There’s also a lot of speed in this race, and I already question Rachel Alexandra's ability to go a mile and a quarter. Don't get me wrong, Rachel Alexandra is an amazing filly, one of the all time best, but I would go with Rags to Riches here.

What about value? If you were going to bet a horse with nice odds, I wouldn't overlook Birdstone and Summer Bird. With both of them at 15-1 (they would probably be higher if this race was to really be run) I think that they are both capable of winning a race like this. Giacomo might even have a shot. And don't forget Smarty Jones. . .

So here's the superfecta that I would do.

1 Curlin
2 Afleet Alex
3 Point Given
4 Summer Bird


Of course, I'm throwing out Smarty Jones, Big Brown, and a bunch of other talented horses at my own risk, but that's what I would do.

Who do you think would win? (Be sure to place your vote on my special poll. It is located off to the right near the top of my blog. You have until 11:59 PM on June 5th, 2010 to vote. Enjoy!)

-Keelerman