As we move into the month of March, most thoughts are on the Triple Crown. Most people are wondering which three year old will win the Kentucky Derby, and whether he or she will be the one to finally sweep the Triple Crown after thirty-two long years of wait. But this year, the Triple Crown may take the back seat to something even more exciting, something even larger, wilder, and possibly greater than the great Seabiscuit and War Admiral match race.
Let's go back in time for a moment, seventy-two years ago to be exact. Back in 1938, there were two grand horses, based on opposite coasts, who had an equal claim for the year end awards. There was War Admiral, who had swept the Triple Crown the year before, and then there was Seabiscuit, who has already proven himself to be the best older horse in the country. Which was the better horse? At the end of 1937, the two horses had yet to meet. And at the end of 1937, War Admiral took Horse of the Year, with Seabiscuit considered the Champion Older Male.
Moving into 1938, many meetings between the two were planned, but all fell through. Finally, they met at Pimlico Race Course for the Pimlico Special. War Admiral, who preferred to race on the lead, was the favorite. Seabiscuit, who preferred to come from behind, was not expected to really challenge War Admiral, at least not in the early going. Everybody knows that taking the lead is the way to win match races, and Seabsicuit had never been one to break like a rocket and get to the front fast. How would he catch War Admiral?
Does this sound familiar?
Surely it doesn't sound anything like Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta. After all, it's not like the story of the two fillies matches the story of the two colts in any way.
Getting serious, there are a lot of similarities in the two stories. Like War Admiral, Rachel Alexandra is the younger of the two horses and is based on the east coast. Like Seabiscuit, Zenyatta is the older horse, and is based on the west coast. Just like in 1937, the three year old claimed the 2010 Horse of the Year honors over the older horse. In 1937, War Admiral went a perfect eight-for-eight, just like Rachel Alexandra did last year. Like Seabiscuit, Zenyatta proved she was the best older horse in the country, but failed to prove that she was the best older horse.
There are other similarities. Rachel Alexandra races near the lead, just as War Admiral did, and Zenyatta races towards the back of the pack, just as Seabiscuit did. Last year, many attempts were made to get Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta to meet in a race. Just like seventy years earlier, they all failed.
But it looks like it may come about this year. Oaklawn Park is offering to boost the purse of this year's Apple Blossom Handicap to and incredible five million dollars if the two great mares will meet in that race. If they meet, the distance of the race will be boosted to a mile and an eighth, and the date of the race will be moved to April 9th, rather than April 3rd, to allow Rachel Alexandra a little extra time to get back in shape. After all, she's going to have to be at her best if she intends to take on Zenyatta.
Of course, the Apple Blossom won't be a match race. It should draw a pretty good field, considering the amount of money that will be given out for finishing third, fourth, fifth, even last. Five hundred thousand dollars to the third place finisher. Unless it's in the Breeders' Cup, fillies and mares just don't race for that kind of money. Most filly and mare races don't have total purses that large. And now, all you have to do is come to Oaklawn, finish third, and come away with more money than you could have earned winning most races? Five hundred thousand dollars is nothing to sneeze at. The race has already drawn many nominations, including one for Stardom Bound, and one for the great South American filly Bambera. And it's still possible that more names could be added, inlcuding the names of Careless Jewel and Informed Decision. Either of them would make sure that the early pace is a fair one, with Informed Decision being last year's Champion Female Sprinter.
As of right now, Rachel Alexandra is favored in Las Vegas. And her running style lends itself to this distance. Zenyatta will likely have to do some real running to catch Rachel Alexandra in the Apple Blossom, even if the pace is a good one.
Or will she?
I think that Zenyatta is capable of going to the lead. I think that Zenyatta is the stronger horse, and is capable of running with Rachel Alexandra, and then drawing away to win by daylight. It's what Seabiscuit did seventy-two years ago. War Admiral figured to break on the lead and never let Seabiscuit pass him, but it was Seabiscuit who roared to the front and never let War Admiral get much more than his nose in front. And as they turned for home, Seabiscuit spurted away to a four length triumph. Why can't Zenyatta do the same?
We saw a legend in the making last November when Zenyatta mowed down Gio Ponti and became the first filly or mare in history to win the Breeders' Cup Classic. And she did it on a synthetic track, which according to her trainer, she doesn't care for. He says that Zenyatta is a better horse on dirt. A better horse on dirt? And she won the Classic anyway? Zenyatta is truly special, and if she wins the Apple Blossom Handicap over the best fillies and mares on the continent, then I'm afraid Curlin will have to step down. I have always said that Curlin is the greatest horse I have ever seen, but I feel that Zenyatta may be better. Should Zenyatta win a second Breeders' Cup Classic at the end of this year, and retire at something like twenty-for-twenty, then hats off to her. If she can do it, then not only is she better than Curlin, but I would not be afraid to compare her to War Admiral and Seabiscuit. I would not be afraid to compare her to Affirmed, or even Seattle Slew. If she can do it, than she is one of the all time greats. Rachel Alexandra is a terrific filly, and she is one of my favorite horses of all time, but I'm afraid my heart is with Zenyatta.
Zenyatta is rapidly becoming a legend. Let's hope she retired undefeated with a second Breeders' Cup Classic on her resume.
-Keelerman
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