Dreaming of Julia spectacular in Gulfstream Oaks

Narrowly favored Dreaming of Julia stamped herself as a heavy favorite for the Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) this May when she romped to a jaw-dropping 21 3/4-length victory in the $300,000 Gulfstream Oaks (gr. II) this afternoon at Gulfstream Park.

Ridden to victory by John Velazquez, Dreaming of Julia -- who won the Frizette Stakes (gr. I) as a two-year-old last year -- broke cleanly and quickly settled into second place as Live Lively set a respectable pace of :23.43 and :47.18. Cue the Moon and Emollient were tracking them in third and fourth, followed by Original Script and Kimberly Jean.

Following three-quarters of a mile in 1:11.16 seconds, Dreaming of Julia moved up to take command from Live Lively, and then -- in the blink of an eye -- she was five lengths in front. Then ten lengths. Then twelve lengths. Under a hand ride from Velazquez, Dreaming of Julia drew off with remarkable ease to win by an almost unprecedented margin while stopping the clock for nine furlongs in a sharp 1:48.97 seconds.

Live Lively held second by four lengths over Cue the Moon, but was never a match for the winner. Kimberly Jean, Emollient, and Original Script completed the order of finish.

The winner is trained by Todd Pletcher and owned by Stonestreet Stables. A daughter of A.P. Indy out of the Wild Rush mare Dream Rush, Dreaming of Julia has now compiled a record of four wins, a second, and a third from six starts, with earnings of $767,000.

-Keelerman

Animal Kingdom romps in Dubai World Cup

Animal Kingdom became the first American-based horse to win the $10,000,000 Dubai World Cup Sponsored by Emirates Airline (UAE-I) when unleashed a spectacular turn-of-foot to seize command of the world's richest race and win by two lengths.

Ridden to victory by Joel Rosario, Animal Kingdom flashed speed from the start of the race and soon found himself racing in second, right behind two-time Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic winner Royal Delta. Hunter's Light was tucked behind them along the rail, followed closely by Side Glance, Meandre, and Treasure Beach. Dullahan, Red Cadeaux, African Story, Planteur, Capponi, and Kassiano were the trailers.

Through fractions of :26.59, :50.02, and 1:13.63 Royal Delta led the way, but approaching the homestretch Animal Kingdom surged past her to seize command of the lead. From there, the race was over, as Animal Kingdom kept pouring on speed to win the race in simply spectacular fashion. The final time was 2:03.21.

Red Cadeaux made a solid rally along the inside to secure second, nearly five lengths clear of Planteur and Side Glance. African Story, Meandre, Hunter's Light, Treasure Beach, Kassiano, Royal Delta, Dullahan, and Capponi completed the order of finish.

A son of Leroidesanimaux out of the Acatenango mare Dalicia, Animal Kingdom is trained by Graham Motion and owned by Team Valor International and Arrowfield Stud. He has now compiled a record of 5-5-0 from 12 starts, with earnings of $8,387,500.

-Keelerman

Sajjhaa much the best in Dubai Duty Free

The six-year-old mare Sajjhaa completed a simply spectacular Meydan meet when she won the $5,000,000 Dubai Duty Free Sponsored by Dubai Duty Free (UAE-I) by a powerful two lengths, a victory that marked her fourth consecutive group stakes victory at Meydan this winter.

Ridden to victory by Silvestre De Sousa, Sajjhaa settled back in mid-pack early on as American hopeful Little Mike led the way through modest fractions. Rounding the final turn, De Sousa guided her through an opening along the rail to seize command of the lead, after which the results were never in question. Sajjhaa did not allow any of the deep closers to threaten, holding them all clear to win in powerful fashion while stopping the clock for 1,800 meters in a quick 1:47.92 seconds.

The Apache rallied mildly for second place, while Giofra finished third. Little Mike failed to showcase his typical stretch kick and wound up finishing thirteenth of fourteen.

Owned by Godolphin and trained by Saeed bin Suroor, Sajjhaa is a daughter of King's Best out of Anaamil, by Darshaan.

-Keelerman

Keelerman's Derby Top Twenty 3-29-13

1. Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron - Viva La Slew, by Doneraile Court) Trained by Edward Plesa, Jr.

Completed his preparation for the Florida Derby by traversing a half-mile in :49 2/5 at Calder on March 23rd. He drew well for tomorrow's big test, being assigned gate three, so at least we won't have to worry about him getting hung wide on the first turn. The only real concern is that he has Shanghai Bobby drawn to his inside and Merit Man drawn to his outside, meaning that he could potentially get caught in the middle of a skirmish for the lead. Then again, perhaps he'll rate behind them in third place and make his move later. Whatever he does, he needs to finish in the top two to guarantee himself enough points to make the Kentucky Derby field.

2. Verrazano (More Than Ready - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher

Unlike the majority of Pletcher's potential Derby colts, Verrazano has already secured his berth in the Derby by merit of his Tampa Bay Derby win. As a result, his exact finish in the Wood Memorial is not important -- although to be frank, anything less than a victory would be disappointing. Hopefully, we'll get an opportunity to see him rate off the lead, but given his natural speed, he may simply find himself in front by default.

3. Oxbow (Awesome Again - Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas

He will pick up the services of Gary Stevens for the Arkansas Derby, which I thought was an interesting decision. Would it not be a simply spectacular story if Stevens and Lukas were to win the Derby together on the twenty-fifth anniversary of their triumph with Winning Colors? Given the circumstances, that would be practically unprecedented.

4. Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday - Steelin', by Orientate) Trained by Todd Pletcher

A lot has been written about how unfortunate it is that juvenile champion has yet to earn his way into the Derby, and while that may be so, it's not as though achieving that goal is going to be difficult. All he has to do is finish in the Florida Derby trifecta, and given his credentials, that shouldn't pose any problem. I look forward to seeing how he handles the additional sixteenth of a mile.

5. Revolutionary (War Pass - Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Todd Pletcher

Drawing post position three in the Louisiana Derby probably wasn't the luckiest thing, given Revolutionary's tendency to break slowly, but as I wrote last week, the long homestretch should help him to overcome any traffic issues that he may encounter. But once again, he needs a good effort to secure a trip to the Derby, as he currently possesses just ten Kentucky Derby qualification points.

6. Orb (Malibu Moon - Lady Liberty, by Unbridled) Trained by Shug McGaughey

What's interesting about his run in the Fountain of Youth was that -- despite coming from off-the-pace -- he was actually running some very stiff internal fractions, including a sub-1:10 six furlongs. If he were to do that again, it would likely put him on the lead in the Florida Derby, which would be unprecedented. Therefore, it is more likely that he settles back once again behind a moderate pace, which should leave him with an even stronger kick for the homestretch.

7. War Academy (Giant's Causeway - Cabbage Key, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Bob Baffert

He has been confirmed as an Arkansas Derby starter, where he will be ridden by Mike Smith. Hmm . . . where have I heard that before? A Baffert colt in Arkansas with Smith as the rider? Sounds like Bodemeister, doesn't it? Yes, it does. And I truly think that War Academy can one-up Bodemeister by not only winning the Arkansas Derby, but the Kentucky Derby as well. I'm expecting a bright future for this colt.

8. Titletown Five (Tiznow - D' Wildcat Speed, by Forest Wildcat) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas

Well, it's now or never. Either he finishes in the Louisiana Derby exacta and secures his berth in the Derby, or he doesn't. On paper, he appears to be the lone speed, so perhaps he can take them all the way on the front end. But I suspect (okay, I know) that I have become attached to this colt in much the same way that I did Dublin in 2010, and my opinion of him is probably biased. :)

9. Flashback (Tapit - Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greely) Trained by Bob Baffert

The presence of his stablemate Super Ninety Nine in the Santa Anita Derby may be very clever strategy on Baffert's part, as the speedy Super Ninety Nine will likely go to the lead, allowing Flashback to try and settle back with a target to run at. If this learning experience were to go as planned, it would help Flashback's chances immensely in the Derby, where the ability to rate off the leaders is extremely valuable.

10. Hear the Ghost (Ghostzapper - Rehear, by Coronado's Quest) Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer

There's nothing to dislike about the way he's training for the Santa Anita Derby, as his 1:13.60 six-furlong breeze at Hollywood last week was very strong. He's already secured enough points to make the Derby, so a top-two effort next week is not imperative. I'd just like to see him settle back off of what will hopefully be a moderate pace, then finish up well to crack the trifecta.

11. Code West (Lemon Drop Kid - Charitabledonation, by Saint Ballado) Trained by Bob Baffert

He returns to Fair Grounds this Saturday to contest the Louisiana Derby, where his grinding style should help him take advantage of the long homestretch. Any improvement upon his runner-up effort in the Risen Star should enable him to finish in the top three, which would assure him a berth in the Derby.

12. Palace Malice (Curlin - Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem) Trained by Todd Pletcher

Like Code West, he is returning to Fair Grounds for a shot at the Louisiana Derby, but unlike Code West, a third-place finish will not secure him enough Derby points -- he will need to finish second or better. That's certainly a distinct possibility, but unless Pletcher runs 1-2 with Revolutionary and Palace Malice, it is likely that one of these highly-regarded Pletcher colts will end up without enough points to make the Derby.

13. Vyjack (Into Mischief - Life Happened, by Stravinsky) Trained by Rudy Rodriguez

Breezed five furlongs in a bullet :59.07 at Aqueduct on March 22nd, signaling his readiness for next week's Wood Memorial. Unfortunately, with Rudy Rodriguez dealing with a possible extension of his current suspension, the possibility exists that someone else will be the trainer of record for that race. Regardless, Rodriguez should be back in action before the Kentucky Derby.

14. Will Take Charge (Unbridled's Song - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas

Using the Blue Grass Stakes as a final prep is an interesting choice, but since this colt doesn't need any additional Derby points, there really isn't a reason to stay in Arkansas and run against Oxbow again. Those who question whether he'll handle the Polytrack at Keeneland have a valid point, but remember, he did break his maiden there last fall.

15. Normandy Invasion (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Trained by Chad Brown

Like many others, he's got a difficult task to conquer heading into his final Derby prep, that is, securing enough points to make the Derby. That fifth-place finish in the Risen Star really hurt, as it left him with just four points on his record and just one more race in which to earn more. Fortunately, he seems to be training well, having turned in a pair of bullet five-furlong works at Palm Meadows during the last two weeks.

16. Departing (War Front - Leave, by Pulpit) Trained by Albert Stall, Jr.

Completed his training for the Louisiana Derby by breezing a half-mile in :47.20 at Fair Grounds, the fastest of sixty-five such morning works. He's drawn very well in gate seven, right alongside his stablemate Sunbean. I anticipate a great performance -- but whether that performance is great enough to top Revolutionary, Titletown Five, Code West, and Palace Malice remains to be seen.

17. Den's Legacy (Medaglia d'Oro - Sunshine Song, by War Chant) Trained by Bob Baffert

He will be making a return trip to Arkansas to compete in the Arkansas Derby, where he will most likely be overshadowed by stablemate War Academy. Nevertheless, it would be unwise to count this colt out of contention, because he has quietly amassed twenty Derby qualification points, and a top three finish in Arkansas will likely stamp his ticket to Louisville.

18. Black Onyx (Rock Hard Ten - Kalahari Cat, by Cape Town) Trained by Kelly Breen

The three new additions to this week's top twenty, starting with this colt, are rounding out the bottom three positions simply because I'm not quite sure what to do with them. Like many a Spiral winner, Black Onyx emerged from seemingly nowhere to defeat a fairly strong field with a number of well-regarded entrants. The question is, can he transfer his form to dirt? Well, he did break his maiden over it last November at Aqueduct. Regardless, he's already arrived in Louisville to begin training for the Derby, so he'll have every opportunity to familiarize himself with the Churchill main track.

19. Govenor Charlie (Midnight Lute - Silverbulletway, by Storm Cat) Trained by Bob Baffert

As blazingly fast as the track was on Sunland Derby day, it was still a remarkable for Govenor Charlie to win as he did, breaking a 52-year-old track record by nearly three-fifths of a second. The ease at which he disposed of Abraham rounding the final turn was also remarkable. With only three starts under his belt -- and none as a two-year-old -- he'll have to buck history to win the Derby, but then again, maybe he has the talent to do just that.

20. Uncaptured (Lion Heart - Captivating, by Arch) Trained by Mark Casse

You couldn't really have asked for a finer effort in the Spiral, given that it was his first start since November. He flashed enough speed to stay within reach of the lead throughout the first six furlongs and finished up well in the final furlong. True, that final furlong was run in a slow :13.62, but I think it was more the result of a slow track than horses tiring, because watching the race, no one seemed to be that exhausted.

-Keelerman

Reynaldothewizard posts upset in Golden Shaheen

Reynaldothewizard took command of the lead turning for home and held on tenaciously to win the $2,000,000 Golden Shaheen Sponsored by Gulf News (UAE-I) at Meydan Racecourse in Dubai, giving jockey Richard Mullen his first victory in one of the Dubai World Cup races.

During the early stages of the race, Reynaldothewizard was just behind the leaders in fourth place as Taisei Legend, Trinniberg, and Private Zone dueled for the lead through quick fractions. Gordon Lord Byron was down along the fence in fifth, followed by Krypton Factor on the outside. Favored Mental was toward the rear of the field and boxed in traffic.

Turning for home, the three leaders began to tire from their early exertions, allowing Reynaldothewizard to move up and take command of the lead. 76-1 shot Balmont Mast split horses in the stretch and rallied strongly up the fence to make the finish close, but the wire came in time for Reynaldothewizard, who held on to win by about a half-length while running the 1,200 meters in 1:12.46 seconds.

Balmost Mast finished second by a narrow margin over Krypton Factor, while Tamaathul rounded out the superfecta. The winner, a seven-year-old gelded son of Speightstown, is owned by Zabeel Racing International and trained by Satish Seemar.

-Keelerman

Lines of Battle holds off challenges in UAE Derby

Lines of Battle stamped his ticket to the Kentucky Derby when he took the lead at the top of the Meydan homestretch and held off late challenges from Elleval and Secret Number to win the $2,000,000 UAE Derby (UAE-II) by 1 1/2 lengths.

With Ryan Moore aboard, Lines of Battle broke well and soon settled into second place, right on the outside of Law Enforcement. Shuruq and Snowboarder were also close to the pace, while the American hopefuls He's Had Enough and Dice Flavor were toward the rear of the field. Favored Secret Number was dead last after being forced to steady early in the race.

As the horses made their way around the final turn, Snowboarder made a strong move to take command of the lead, but Lines of Battle quickly re-passed him and opened up a bit of an advantage. However, he began to drift out entering the final two hundred meters, allowing Elleval to rally through on the inside to challenge for the win. In the meantime, Secret Number was rallying rapidly on the extreme outside after finally securing racing room at the top of the stretch. However, neither colt could surpass Lines of Battle, who stayed on strongly in the final hundred meters to win the race by 1 1/2 lengths. The final time for 1,900 meters was 2:02.05 seconds.

Elleval held second by a half-length over Secret Number, while Snowboarder rounded out the superfecta. Dice Flavor and He's Had Enough never threatened, finishing eighth and eleventh, respectively.

Aidan O'Brien, the trainer of Lines of Battle, confirmed after the race that Lines of Battle would be pointed toward a start in the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs: http://www.drf.com/news/uae-derby-kentucky-derby-likely-next-victorious-lines-battle

-Keelerman

Shea Shea breaks course record in Al Quoz Sprint

Heavily favored Shea Shea rallied powerfully in the Meydan homestretch to win the $1,000,000 Al Quoz Sprint Sponsored Emirates NBD (UAE-I) by a length, breaking the course record for five furlongs in the process.

With Christophe Soumillon aboard for trainer Mike de Kock, Shea Shea got off to a good start and settled just behind the early pace as Mr. Big and Varsity led the way. Entering the final two hundred meters, the ten-year-old gelding Joy and Fun moved up strongly to take command of the lead, but Shea Shea reeled him in during the final hundred meters to win going away by about a length. The final time of :56.41 eclipsed the course record of :57.02 set by Shea Shea in the Meydan Sprint earlier this month.

Joy and Fun held second by a length over Eagle Regiment.

-Keelerman

Cavalryman explodes to Dubai Gold Cup victory

Cavalryman showcased a spectacular turn-of-foot in the final two hundred meters of the $1,000,000 Dubai Gold Cup Sponsored by Al Tayer Motors (UAE-III) at Meydan, bursting clear of stablemate Ahzeemah to win the 3,200 meter turf race by four lengths,

With Silvestre De Sousa aboard, Cavalryman settled into mid-pack for much of the race as Saddler's Rock and Tenenbaum set a very slow pace. The positions really didn't change much at all until the homestretch, when Cavalryman rolled past his rivals with an eye-catching rally to win going away in powerful fashion. The final time was 3:24.28.

Ahzeemah narrowly held second over Verema, who rallied mildly to edge Imperial Monarch for the third spot.

The winner, a seven-year-old son of Halling out of the Highest Honor mare Silversword, is trained by Saeed Bin Suroor and owned by Godolphin Racing.

-Keelerman

Soft Falling Rain wins the Godolphin Mile

Soft Falling Rain, the only three-year-old in the field, overcome breaking from post thirteen to win the $1,000,000 Godolphin Mile Sponsored by Etisalat (UAE-II) at Meydan, the first thoroughbred race on the Dubai World Cup program.

Ridden to victory by Paul Hanagan, Soft Falling Rain was hung wide throughout the race as Alpha set a strong pace on the front end, but gradually moved up to reach contention as the field entered the homestretch. In the meantime, longshot Haatheq had made a bold run on the outside of Alpha to take command of the lead, and appeared to be on his way to victory. But Soft Falling Rain reeled him in with a powerful stretch run to win the race by three-quarters of a length while stopping the clock in 1:39.97 seconds.

Haatheq held second over the late-running Moonwalk in Paris, while Alpha tired in the final four hundred meters to finish fifth.

The winner, a son of National Assembly out of the Giant's Causeway mare Gardener's Delight, is owned by Sheikh Hamdan bin Rashid Al Maktoum and is trained by Mike de Kock.

-Keelerman

Monterosso scratched from Dubai World Cup

Monterosso, winner of the 2012 Dubai World Cup, has been scratched from the 2013 edition of the race after coming up lame in his left foreleg.

Owned by Godolphin and trained by Mahmoud Al Zarooni, the six-year-old son of Dubawi was bidding to become the first two-time winner of the Dubai World Cup.

Additional details can be found on DRF.com: http://www.drf.com/news/dubai-world-cup-defending-champ-monterosso-scratched

Louisiana Derby entries: Revolutionary headlines full field of 14

Withers Stakes (gr. III) winner Revolutionary has been made the morning line favorite in the $1,000,000 Louisiana Derby (gr. II), to be run on Saturday at Fair Grounds.

The Todd Pletcher-trained colt drew gate three in a field of fourteen horses, which also includes Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) runner-up Code West, third-place finisher Palace Malice, and seventh-place finisher Proud Strike. Texas Heritage Stakes winner Departing, Gentilly Stakes winner Sunbean, and Gazebo Stakes runner-up Titletown Five have also been entered.

Post Positions:
1 Hip Four Sixtynine
2 Palace Malice
3 Revolutionary
4 Golden Soul
5 Whiskey Bravo
6 Sunbean
7 Departing
8 Code West
9 Proud Strike
10 Titletown Five
11 Mylute
12 Brazilian Court
13 Ground Transport
14 Nina's Dragon

-Keelerman

Florida Derby entries: Itsmyluckyday, Shanghai Bobby meet again

Itsmyluckyday and Shanghai Bobby, the 1-2 finishers in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) back in January, are set to face off again on Saturday in the $1,000,000 Besilu Stable Florida Derby (gr. I) at Gulfstream Park.

The nine-furlong race is a major prep for the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) at Churchill Downs on May 4th, and has produced a number of top-notch racehorses in recent years, including Kentucky Derby winners Barbaro and Big Brown, Preakness Stakes (gr. I) winner Shackleford, four-time grade I winner Quality Road, and Belmont Stakes (gr. I) winner Union Rags.

The Florida Derby will offer the winner 100 Kentucky Derby qualification points, as well as 40 points to the runner-up, 20 points to third, and 10 points to fourth. As a result, eight other horses are lined up to face the Itsmyluckyday and Shanghai Bobby, including Besilu Stable Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) winner Orb, Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) runner-up Frac Daddy, and Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II) winner Merit Man.

Post Positions:
1 Shanghai Bobby
2 Pick of the Litter
3 Itsmyluckyday
4 Pontiff
5 Frac Daddy
6 Orb
7 Indy's Illusion
8 Merit Man
9 Are You Kidding Me
10 Narvaez

-Keelerman

Govenor Charlie sets track record in Sunland Derby

The lightly raced colt Govenor Charlie proved once again that sheer talent can overcome inexperience when he romped to a five-length triumph in the $800,000 Sunland Derby (gr. III) at Sunland Park, running nine furlongs in 1:47.54 seconds to establish a new track record.

Making only the third start of his career, Govenor Charlie got away to a good start under jockey Martin Garcia and soon settled into third place on the outside, tracking Saint Prado and Abraham through quick fractions of :22.74 and :46.22 seconds. Just Win Baby and Show Some Magic were racing as a pair in fourth, about two lengths off the lead, followed by Stormdriver, Dry Summer, Mudflats, and Shakin It Up.

Following three-quarters of a mile in 1:09.96, Govenor Charlie moved up to take the lead, and approaching the homestretch, he began to open up on his pursuers. Show Some Magic turned in a nice rally to briefly challenge, but Govenor Charlie easily turned him back, extending his advantage throughout the final furlong to reach the wire well in front.

Show Some Magic finished second by 3 1/4 lengths over Abraham, while Shakin It Up rallied mildly for fourth. Stormdriver, Mudflats, Saint Prado, Dry Summer, and Just Win Baby completed the order of finish.

The winner is trained by Bob Baffert and owned by Mike Pegram. A son of Midnight Lute out of the Storm Cat mare Silverbulletway, Govenor Charlie has now compiled a record of two wins and a second from three starts, with earnings of $444,800.

-Keelerman

Black Onyx wins Spiral Stakes at 15-1

Black Onyx succeeded in pulling off a surprising upset in the Horseshoe Casino Cincinnati Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III) at Turfway Park, rallying for a 1 1/2-length triumph at odds of 15.70-1.

With jockey Joe Bravo aboard, Black Onyx settled into mid-pack early on in a field of twelve, about four lengths off the pace set by Mac the Man, who set moderate fractions of :23.74, :48.30, and 1:13.00 seconds. Giant Finish and Taken by the Storm were racing second and third, followed closely by Uncaptured, Black Onyx, and Fear the Kitten. My Name is Michael, Balance the Books, Channel Isle, Capo Bastone, For Greater Glory, and General Election were the trailers. Capo Bastone, who stumbled at the start, seemed to dislike the kick-back in his face.

The positions remained relatively unchanged throughout much of the race, but approaching the three-eighths pole, Taken by the Storm moved up to take command of the lead and loomed a serious contender for the win. However, Black Onyx soon came running on the far outside, rallying past Taken by the Storm just prior to the eighth pole to seize command of the race. From there, the outcome was never really in question, as Black Onyx stayed on strongly to win by 1 1/2 lengths over the late-rallying Uncaptured. The final time for nine furlongs was 1:51.98 seconds.

Giant Finish presented a moderate rally to claim third place, while Taken by the Storm weakened in the final furlong to finish fourth. Fear the Kitten, For Greater Glory, Channel Isle, My Name is Michael, Capo Bastone, General Election, Balance the Books, and Mac the Man completed the order of finish; the latter was eased to the wire.

Owned by Sterling Racing and trained by Kelly Breen, Black Onyx is a son of Rock Hard Ten out of the Cape Town mare Kalahari Cat. He has compiled a record of three wins and a second from five starts, with earnings of $407,810.

-Keelerman

Crop Report closes fast to win Rushaway Stakes

Heavily favored Crop Report overcome a slow start to win the $75,000 Team Valor Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park with an explosive late rally, establishing himself in the process as a potential candidate for the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) on June 8th.

Ridden to victory by Joel Rosario, Crop Report bumped with Bet a Bundle at the start of the race and quickly dropped back to trail the field, racing nine lengths behind pace-setting Divine Ambition through an opening quarter mile of :23.76 seconds. Bet a Bundle and Takin the Sloroad were tracking the pace in second and third, followed by J. J. Got Even, Red Wings, and Crop Report.

Divine Ambition continued to lead the way through slow fractions of :47.97 and 1:13.14, and entered the homestretch with a commanding advantage. However, Crop Report was gearing up with a big run on the outside, and caught the leader with ease at the sixteenth pole to win going away by 1 3/4 lengths. The final time for a mile and a sixteenth was 1:45.66 seconds.

Divine Ambition held second by three lengths over Red Wings, who loomed a challenger at the top of the stretch before flattening out. Takin the Sloroad, J. J. Got Even, and Bet a Bundle trailed the field.

The winner is owned by Team Valor International and is trained by Graham Motion. A son of Medaglia d'Oro out of the Crafty Prospector mare Amarillo, Crop Report may be pointed toward a start in the Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II) at Belmont Park next time out, according to a report from DRF.com: http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-next-stop-spiral-winner-black-onyx

The Peter Pan is a prominent prep for the Belmont Stakes.

-Keelerman

Triple Crown Countdown 3-23-13

If you had told me two years ago that the Spiral Stakes (gr. III) at Turfway Park would -- in the span of two years -- produce a Kentucky Derby winner and a Kentucky Derby fourth-place finisher, I never would have believed it. Yet that is exactly what has happened, with 2011 Spiral winner Animal Kingdom claiming the Run for the Roses and 2012 victor Went the Day Well finishing a fast-closing fourth in the Derby.

So it is with newfound respect that I analyze the 2013 edition of the Spiral, which -- thanks to a new sponsorship agreement -- is officially known as the Horseshoe Casino Cincinnati Racing Spiral Stakes. No longer is the Spiral simply an enjoyable race for third-tier Derby contenders -- it is most undoubtedly one of the major prep races, and that is reflected in the new Kentucky Derby qualification point system, which has the Spiral as one of the final fifty-point Derby preps. As a result, a field of twelve has been entered in this year's renewal of the race, and several of them look as though they could be a factor in Louisville.

First and foremost is Uncaptured, who had a simply spectacular juvenile season, concluding a 6-for-7 campaign with a gritty victories in the Iroquois Stakes (gr. III) and Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) at Churchill Downs. Various hoof issues have kept him on the sidelines since then, but he's ready to roll now, as his recent one-mile workout at the Ocala Training Center suggests. Obviously, he's a bit behind schedule for making the Derby -- he'll likely have to come back in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) three weeks from now in order to get enough foundation to be a serious Derby contender -- but this race is a great starting point for him, and with a 4-for-5 record on Polytrack, he shouldn't have any trouble handling the Turfway main track.

Balance the Books appears to be his primary opposition, based on a strong third-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. I) last November. A two-time graded stakes winner, Balance the Books will be making both his synthetic track and three-year-old debut today, which does set up the possibility of a sub-par performance. But all that aside, Balance the Books possesses a simply terrific turn-of-foot, and should be finishing fast in the final furlong.

Now, Uncaptured and Balance the Books are the morning line favorite, with respective odds of 3-1 and 7-2. Showcasing the unknown factor in most of the runners is the fact that Capo Bastone (9-2 odds) is the only other entrant listed at less than 10-1. And there's no denying that he deserves it -- he finished third in both the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) and FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I) last year, and returned to win an allowance race at Gulfstream Park last month by a determined head. But the fact is, his Beyer speed figures have been very low -- for the most part, he has run figures in the upper 70s, and actually decreased to a 69 in allowance victory. Furthermore, he has drawn gate twelve in the Spiral, which raises the possibility that he could be caught very wide on the turns.

So if all three of the favorites have questions to answer -- Uncaptured and Balance the Books regarding their layoffs, and Capo Bastone concerning his speed figures and post draw -- are we on the verge of witnessing a monumental upset?

Well, "monumental" isn't exactly the right word, because the longest longshot on the morning line is 20-1, but an upset is a distinct possibility. Personally, I like the chances of My Name Is Michael, who finished a fast-closing third in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) last month despite a less-than-perfect trip. He also has an admirable record of Polytrack, having broken his maiden at Woodbine last year and finished second in the Display Stakes.

Local stars Mac the Man and General Election also merit a great deal of respect. The former is unbeaten in three starts here at Turfway, which includes dominating victories in the 96Rock Stakes and Turfway Park Prevue Stakes. The latter enters off of an impressive win in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes, in which he turned in an eight-wide rally to win by a determined half-length.

Rounding out the field are Giant Finish and For Greater Glory, the 2-3 finishers in the John Battaglia; Black Onyx, sharp winner of turf allowance race at Gulfstream last month; Fear the Kitten, who has placed in both the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) and LeComte Stakes (gr. III) this year; Channel Isle, fourth in the Southwest; and Taken by the Storm, sixth to Capo Bastone in that one's allowance win and subsequent winner of a turf allowance race at Gulfstream. Any and all of them could contend under the right circumstances, and quite frankly, I won't be surprised if any of them win.

Selections: My Name is Michael, Balance the Books, General Election

-Keelerman

Sunland Derby entries: Shakin It Up tries two turns

Shakin It Up, sharp winner of the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita last month, will attempt to carry his vast talent around two turns for the first time in his career when he contests the $800,000 Sunland Derby (gr. III) at Sunland Park this Sunday.

Trained by Bob Baffert, the son of Midnight Lute is the 5-2 favorite on the morning line and will be ridden by  David Flores, who has been aboard the colt in three of his four races. Owned by Michael Pegram and Dennis Cardoza, Shakin It Up will start from post position four in a field of nine.

Abraham, winner of a one-mile maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park last month, ships in from Florida for trainer Todd Pletcher. A son of Distorted Humor, he is the 4-1 second choice on the morning line.

Dry Summer, Show Some Magic, and Stormdriver, the 1-2-3 finishers in the Mine That Bird Derby here at Sunland last month, are among the local contenders.

Post Positions
1 Just Win Baby
2 Abraham
3 Stormdriver
4 Shakin It Up
5 Saint Prado
6 Dry Summer
7 Govenor Charlie
8 Mudflats
9 Show Some Magic

-Keelerman

Spiral Stakes entries: Uncaptured returns to the races

Uncaptured, winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) at Churchill Downs last November, is scheduled to make his first start since that victory when he faces eleven rivals in the $550,000 Horseshoe Casino Cincinnati Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III) at Turfway Park.

The nine-furlong race was won two years ago by Animal Kingdom, who went on to win the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) six weeks later at Churchill Downs. Uncaptured, who has been dealing with hoof issues for several months, will be looking to take a similar route to the Derby, although it is not out of the question that he could start in second prep race three weeks from from now.

Uncaptured's primary opposition is expected to come from Balance the Books, who finished third in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. I), and Capo Bastone, who was third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I). Mac the Man, winner of three straight races at Turfway Park, and My Name Is Michael, who was third in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) at Tampa Bay Downs last month, are other prominent entrants.

Post Positions:
1 Balance the Books
2 Channel Isle
3 Uncaptured
4 Fear the Kitten
5 My Name is Michael
6 For Greater Glory
7 Mac the Man
8 General Election
9 Black Onyx
10 Giant Finish
11 Taken by the Storm
12 Capo Bastone

-Keelerman

Keelerman's Derby Top Twenty 3-24-13

1. Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron - Viva La Slew, by Doneraile Court) Trained by Edward Plesa, Jr.

It seems like much more than two months since we saw him upset Shanghai Bobby in the Holy Bull. But then, I guess time goes slowly when you're awaiting what could be a breakout performance from a potentially great colt. Believe it or not, he'll have to finish first or second in the Florida Derby to finalize his spot in the Kentucky Derby -- he only has ten Derby qualification points -- but if he runs like I think he will, that shouldn't be an issue.

2. Verrazano (More Than Ready - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher

So let's see. Just how much does Verrazano have to overcome to win the Derby? Well, there's the Apollo Curse (He didn't race as a juvenile; no horse without two-year-old experience has won the Derby since Apollo in 1882.) He'll enter the Derby with four starts this year -- and no colt with that much three-year-old experience has won the Derby since Smarty Jones in 2004. Furthermore, his final prep will come in the Wood Memorial, and the Wood has not been too kind to potential Derby candidates as of late -- the 2009, 2010, and 2011 winners were all injured prior to the Derby, as was 2008 runner-up War Pass; 2012 winner Gemologist did make the Derby, but ran fifteenth and emerged with an injury. Can Verrazano possibly overcome all this? Of course he can! This colt may simply be one of the most talented runners we have seen in some time. One more good prep and he may head to Louisville as the favorite.

3. Oxbow (Awesome Again - Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas

Although he lost the Rebel Stakes, I personally thought that it was an exceptional performance, given that he may have moved a bit early into a very solid pace. I think he's got another major step forward inside of him -- let's just hope that he uses it in the Kentucky Derby, rather than the Arkansas Derby three weeks prior.

4. Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday - Steelin', by Orientate) Trained by Todd Pletcher

After patiently waiting throughout February and March for his return, we're finally going to get to see what Shanghai Bobby can do in the Florida Derby against Itsmyluckyday and Orb. Of course, he won't be ready for a peak effort yet -- not in his second start since November -- but he should be much sharper than he was for the Holy Bull. Which is kind of scary, since he did break the track record in defeat. However, should he lose, don't fret -- remember, Todd Pletcher's lone Derby winner, Super Saver, lost both of his prep races before romping in the Run for the Roses.

5. Revolutionary (War Pass - Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Todd Pletcher

Pletcher has chosen to take a very unusual route to the Derby with this colt, starting him off at Aqueduct in the Withers Stakes before heading to Fair Grounds for the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) next week. Given that Revolutionary has been prone to breaking slowly from the starting gate, perhaps the long Fair Grounds homestretch will help his chances should he break slowly once again. It had better, because he likely needs a top-two finish in order to secure a berth in Louisville.

6. Orb (Malibu Moon - Lady Liberty, by Unbridled) Trained by Shug McGaughey

He still has a few questions to answer in the Florida Derby, namely, how will he respond to the projected slower pace? His Fountain of Youth victory was no doubt aided by the blazing pace (1:08 4/5 for three-quarters of a mile.) Then again, he actually made a pretty good run into that blazing third quarter, and was finishing strongest of anyone at the finish. If he can adapt to a slower pace and still finish powerfully, it will make him all the more dangerous in Louisville.

7. Titletown Five (Tiznow - D' Wildcat Speed, by Forest Wildcat) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas

Call me stubborn if you like, but I am still confident that Titletown Five is better than his Gazebo Stakes performance suggests. I really think that he will be better going longer, but it's a now-or-never proposition this Sunday in the Sunland Derby (gr. III), where he needs to finish 1-2 to have any real shot at making it to Louisville.

8. War Academy (Giant's Causeway - Cabbage Key, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Bob Baffert

He showed me everything I wanted to see in his dominating allowance victory last week. Not only did he patiently bide his time when Manando tried to steal the race with a blazing third quarter mile, he flashed an excellent turn-of-foot when asked to run in the homestretch and was obviously much the best at the finish. Given that it was his first start around two turns, I don't think that it was a fluke. The Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass Stakes, and Arkansas Derby are all possibilities for his next start.

9. Flashback (Tapit - Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greely) Trained by Bob Baffert

While it was a bit disappointing to see him lose the San Felipe, there's no denying that it was a great experience for him. Being forced to set a quick pace, and then really run all-out in the homestretch, undoubtedly did him a world of good. He needed something like that, given how easy his first two victories had been. Remember, Bodemeister used a defeat in last year's San Felipe as a stepping stone to his blowout Arkansas Derby victory.

10. Tiz the Truth (Tiznow - Truly Blessed, by French Deputy) Trained by Bob Baffert

He missed some time with hoof issues, but he's not off the Derby trail yet -- Baffert has chosen the Wood Memorial (gr. I) at Aqueduct for this colt's much-anticipated stakes debut. Now, I can't remember the last time Baffert ran a horse in the Wood Memorial -- actually, has he ever run a horse in the Wood Memorial? -- but this colt may have the talent to overcome his lack of experience and stamp his ticket to Louisville with a top-two finish.

11. Hear the Ghost (Ghostzapper - Rehear, by Coronado's Quest) Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer

When Jerry Hollendorfer has a Derby starter, you had better believe he's serious. Remember Chocolate Candy and Rousing Sermon? Well, neither colt was expected to really contend in the Derby, but they wound up finishing fifth and eighth in respectable efforts. Now Hollendorfer may have his best chance in years with Hear the Ghost, who took unleashed a furious rally to win the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) by a half-length. Granted, he took advantage of a speed duel between the two favorites, but it was still a terrific performance. And don't forget, he has flashed a great deal of speed as well -- just take a look at the paces he chased in his first two starts. That kind of versatility can be dangerous in the Derby.

12. Palace Malice (Curlin - Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem) Trained by Todd Pletcher

His third-place finish in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) looks even better after Oxbow, who finished fourth, came back and was beaten a head in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) at Oaklawn. And to be perfectly honest, Palace Malice might have been better than the top two finishers in the Risen Star, given that he raced wide throughout and was making his first start around two turns. He should be ready for an even bigger performance in next week's Louisiana Derby, where he'll hopefully get a better trip.

13. Code West (Lemon Drop Kid - Charitabledonation, by Saint Ballado) Trained by Bob Baffert

Like Palace Malice, Risen Star Stakes runner-up Code West is expected to return to Fair Grounds for the Louisiana Derby, where a top-three performance would pretty much assure him a spot in the Churchill Downs starting gate. I like the way that he battled back in the Risen Star after seemingly being beat a furlong from home, for the ability to keep on chugging away in the homestretch can be valuable in the Derby -- think Animal Kingdom.

14. Vyjack (Into Mischief - Life Happened, by Stravinsky) Trained by Rudy Rodriguez

I really don't know what to do with this colt. His change of running style in the Gotham Stakes left me very impressed -- it's not often that you see any horse, let alone a three-year-old, switch his running style so drastically and so successfully -- but at the same time, his pedigree suggests distance limitations, and it's really impossible to say what his prime running style is.

15. Will Take Charge (Unbridled's Song - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas

It feels kind of silly having Oxbow ranked third and his Rebel conqueror ranked fifteenth, but I thought that the Rebel set up perfectly for Will Take Charge, and that Oxbow showed much more impressive acceleration and tactical speed. On the other hand, I really liked the way that Will Take Charge finished up after being left in Oxbow's dust turning for home, and he is the type of horse that you can envision charging furiously in the final furlong of the Kentucky Derby.

16. Normandy Invasion (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Trained by Chad Brown

He gets his big test on the first Saturday in April when he contests the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. Given that he currently has just four Kentucky Derby qualification points to his credit, he'll have to finish first or second to assure himself a berth in Louisville -- which won't be easy with Verrazano, Vyjack, and possibly Power Broker or Tiz the Truth vying for those same precious points.

17. Departing (War Front - Leave, by Pulpit) Trained by Albert Stall, Jr.

I can't believe that more people aren't talking about this colt, especially given his impressive victory in the Texas Heritage Stakes. What's not to like about an unbeaten son of War Front? With his experience at Fair Grounds, he could be a dark horse in the Louisiana Derby next week, where he will get a major class test against the likes of Revolutionary, Palace Malice, Code West, and others.

18. Den's Legacy (Medaglia d'Oro - Sunshine Song, by War Chant) Trained by Bob Baffert

He's starting to remind me of Giacomo, what with the way he has been placing in so many major Derby preps without winning. Since breaking his maiden last August, he has finished fifth in the FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I), second in the Zuma Beach Stakes, second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint Preview Stakes, first in the Generous Stakes (gr. III), third in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I), second in the Sham Stakes (gr. III), second in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II), and third in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) -- and in the latter race, he was trapped on the rail all the way and emerged with a cut on his leg. One more good effort and he'll be in the Derby, where his vast amount of experience may give him an edge.

19. Shakin It Up (Midnight Lute - Silver Bullet Moon, by Vindication) Trained by Bob Baffert

He's scheduled to make his two-turn debut in the Sunland Derby (gr. III) this Sunday, and while he will surely start as the favorite, he is by no means a lock to win. Sunland has not been very kind to Baffert -- remember Conveyance in 2010, and Castaway last year? The locals probably have an edge, given their experience over the racetrack, but hopefully, Shakin It Up can emerge with the victory and continue on his way to Louisville. If he doesn't, he'll have to come back for another prep race, because he currently has zero Kentucky Derby qualification points, and anything less than a win won't cut it.

20. Capo Bastone (Stree Boss - Fight to Love, by Fit to Fight) Trained by Todd Pletcher

I really have no idea what to expect from him in tomorrow's Spiral Stakes (gr. III). His two-year-old form was strong, although he failed to earn a Beyer speed figure higher than 78. Then, in his three-year-old debut, he made an eye-catching run around the turn and ran down a loose leader in the homestretch -- and earned a Beyer of 69 for his efforts. Now, he has drawn gate twelve in the Spiral, a race that he needs to win to assure his berth in the Derby. He had better be ready.

-Keelerman

Rebel Stakes entries: Super Ninety Nine comes back for more

Having already dominated Oaklawn Park's Southwest Stakes (gr. III) last month by over eleven lengths, California shipper Super Ninety Nine will return to the scene of his biggest victory to try and add the $600,000 Rebel Stakes (gr. II) to his record.

Trained by Bob Baffert, who has won the last three renewals of the Rebel, Super Ninety Nine is the 3-2 favorite on the morning line, and anything close to a repeat of his brilliant Southwest performance should put him in contention to win. However, the son of Pulpit has drawn the far outside post position in a field of eleven, which could make his task a bit more difficult.

His primary opposition is expected to come from Oxbow, brilliant winner of the LeComte Stakes (gr. III) at Fair Grounds; Treasury Bill, the fast-closing runner-up in the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita; Delhomme, a close third in the Remsen Stakes (gr. II) last November; Will Take Charge, winner of the Smarty Jones Stakes; and Den's Legacy, second in both the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) and Sham Stakes (gr. III) at Santa Anita.

Post Positions:
1 Carve
2 Treasury Bill
3 Texas Bling
4 Delhomme
5 Hardrock Eleven
6 Den's Legacy
7 Will Take Charge
8 Stormy Holiday
9 Title Contender
10 Oxbow
11 Super Ninety Nine

-Keelerman

War Academy romps to allowance victory

The well-regarded colt War Academy rebounded from a fourth-place finish in the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) to win a 1 1/16th miles allowance optional claiming race at Santa Anita Park by 3 1/2 lengths.

Ridden to victory by Mike Smith, the Bob Baffert-trained son of Giant's Causeway showed decent tactical speed during the early stages of the race, settling in second place behind pace-setting stablemate Manando as that one led through slow fractions of :24.41 and :48.64 seconds. Moving round the turn, Manando attempted -- with some success -- to shake off War Academy's pursuit, opening up a five-length lead following three-quarters of a mile in 1:11.89 seconds.

However, War Academy had a few extra gears to use, and re-closed the gap with ease in the homestretch. Coming past the sixteenth pole, War Academy stormed past Manando, eventually hitting the wire 3 1/2 lengths in front while stopping the clock in 1:43.42 seconds.

Owned by Michael Tabor, John Magnier, and Derrick Smith, War Academy is expected to contest a major Kentucky Derby prep race in the near future, with the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) on April 6th being a prime possibility.

-Keelerman

Hear the Ghost rallies for San Felipe triumph

Taking advantage of a speed duel between the two favorites, Hear the Ghost rallied powerfully in the Santa Anita homestretch to pull a 6-1 upset in the $300,000 San Felipe Stakes (gr. II).

With jockey Corey Nakatani aboard, the son of Ghostzapper got off to a good start at the beginning of the 1 1/16th miles race and soon settled into fourth place as Salutos Amigos led the way through an opening quarter mile in :22.97 seconds. Goldencents was on the outside in second, followed along the inside by Flashback. Hear the Ghost and Kochees were next, followed by Omega Star, Carving, and Tiz a Minister; the latter being about sixteen or eighteen lengths off the lead.

As the field made its way toward the backstretch, Flashback shifted to the outside and made a quick move to challenge for the lead. While Salutos Amigos was content to let him pass, Goldencents was not. In response to Flashback's sudden surge, Goldencents accelerated noticeably, refusing to relinquish the advantage to his rival. Thus, the two colts found themselves dueling through a stiff half-mile in :45.95 seconds, with neither willing to settle back and take a more conservative approach.

In the meantime, Hear the Ghost was racing comfortably in fifth, about five lengths from the front, waiting for the right moment to pounce. That moment came in deep stretch.

Through three-quarters of a mile in 1:09.94 seconds, Flashback and Goldencents continued their duel. Into the homestretch they charged as a pair, with Flashback holding a tenacious advantage past the eighth pole.

Then, on the far outside, Hear the Ghost began to rally. With Nakatani urging him on, Hear the Ghost unleashed an spectacular late challenge inside the final furlong, making up 6 1/2 lengths to hit the wire in front by a half-length over a determined Flashback. The final time was a good 1:42.34 seconds.

Tiz a Minister also rallied well to finish third, a half-length behind Flashback. Goldencents was another 1 1/4 lengths back in fourth, followed distantly by Salutos Amigos, Carving, Omega Star, and Kochees.

The winner is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and owned by Jerry Hollendorfer and Halo Farms.

-Keelerman

Verrazano romps in Tampa Bay Derby

Odds-on favorite Verrazano overcame a bobble at the start to win the $350,000 Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) in impressive fashion on March 9th, stamping himself as one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) in the process.

Ridden to victory by John Velazquez, Verrazano got off to a slightly awkward start at the beginning of the 1 1/16th miles race, but quickly recovered to race in second place as Falling Sky led the way through an opening quarter mile in :23.50 seconds. Purple Egg and Dynamic Sky were also close to the pace, followed then by Honorable Dillon, Park City, Offlee Fast, Eton Blue, and Java's War.

Entering the backstretch, Verrazano moved up to take the lead from Falling Sky, and led by a length following a half-mile in :47.69 and six furlongs in 1:12.36. Thereafter, Verrazano began to distance himself from his rivals, opening up a commanding advantage while under a hand ride to eventually reach the finish line  three lengths in front, seemingly with something left in the tank. The final time was a sharp 1:43.96 seconds.

Java's War finished strongly on the far outside to secure second place, 4 1/4 lengths clear of Falling Sky. Dynamic Sky rounded out the superfecta, while Eton Blue, Park City, Honorable Dillon, Offlee Fast, and Purple Egg trailed the field.

The winner, a son of More Than Ready out of the Giant's Causeway mare Enchanted Rock, is trained by Todd Pletcher and owned by Let's Go Stable, Michael Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier, and Derrick Smith.

-Keelerman

Triple Crown Countdown 3/9/13

Welcome back to Triple Crown Countdown! Before we delve into this weekend's major Derby preps, allow me to apologize for the lack of blog updates during the last two weeks. A very busy schedule has been the culprit. As a result, today's post shall be a bit shorter than usual, but I shall attempt to cover all of the action as best I can.

We will begin with the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) at Tampa Bay Downs, where Todd Pletcher’s unbeaten allowance winner Verrazano will attempt to pick up his first Kentucky Derby qualification points. Never mind the 16 1/4-length margin of victory last time out -- what was really impressive was the way he finished after being involved in a very quick pace. Anything close to a repeat of that effort should bring about a dominant win in the Tampa Bay Derby.

The only real concern is that the Tampa Bay Downs main track is known for being very different from Gulfstream Park, and it's possible that Verrazano may not care for it -- plenty of horses don't. If that turns out to be the case, than perhaps he can be upset by a runner with experience over the track. There are three such horses in the race -- Dynamic Sky, Falling Sky, and Purple Egg. Dynamic Sky won the Pasco Stakes two starts back before finishing second to Falling Sky in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) after going very wide on both turns and drifting in the homestretch. The jockey switch to Joel Rosario is expected to bring about an improved performance, and so long as Dynamic Sky is within shouting range of Verrazano turning for home, he should have every opportunity to run the favorite down.

Falling Sky won the above-mentioned Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) in gate-to-wire fashion, digging in gamely to hold off Dynamic Sky's late charge. However, a mile and a sixteenth appears to be at the upper limit of his distance capabilities, and it is doubtful that he will get an easy lead today -- not with Verrazano and Offlee Fast right on his heels. Furthermore, he has drawn gate nine, which will make his task of clearing the field and seizing the lead all the more difficult.

Purple Egg is unbeaten in three starts sprinting, including a victory in the Inaugural Stakes here at Tampa in December. However, an illness has kept him from racing since then, and this is a tough spot to stretch out around two turns for the first time. Nevertheless, he's flashed a lot of potential, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him in the mix at the finish.

Honorable Dillon and Java's War merit respect as well. The first-mentioned runner caught my eye when he defeated the well-regarded Delhomme in a maiden special weight at Saratoga last summer, but he disappeared from the work tab shortly thereafter and did not return to the races until January, when he finished a fast-closing second in an allowance sprint at Gulfstream. That effort set him up well for a run in the seven-furlong Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II), which he won by a determined half-length. This will be his first start in a route race, but being a son of Tapit, one has to think that a mile and a sixteenth will be within his range. I expect to see him settle off-the-pace, then try his best to wear down the leaders in the stretch.

Java's War won the Sunday Silence Stakes on turf last year, then finished just three-quarters of a length behind Dynamic Sky when third in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I). He concluded his juvenile season with a sixth-place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II), which remains his only start on dirt. He has trained well for his return and possesses a fairly good finishing kick, but he stills has to prove that he can handle the dirt.

Rounding out the field are Eton Blue and Offlee Wild. (Park City is also entered, but is expected to scratch in favor of the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) at Oaklawn Park next week.) Eton Blue ran second behind Verrazano in that one's dominant victory, and while he has shown some talent, it's hard to envision him making up those 16 1/4 lengths this afternoon. Offlee Wild broke his maiden two starts back going nine furlongs on the Gulfstream turf, then switched to dirt and was beaten just a head by the grade I-placed Capo Bastone in an allowance race. Once again, there's no denying that he has talent, but the task of outrunning Verrazano and Falling Sky for the early lead will not be easy.

Selections: Verrazano, Dynamic Sky, Honorable Dillon

Now, let’s briefly examine the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita Park. The 1 1/16th miles event has drawn a field of eight, led by graded stakes winners Flashback and Goldencents. The first colt, trained by Bob Baffert, romped to victory in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) last month, and obviously possesses a great deal of talent and speed. This will be only the third start of his career, which is a bit of a concern, but I'm confident that Julien Leparoux will put him in a good position and let him run his race. I expect a big performance.

Goldencents has won three of his four starts; his only defeat came at the hands of juvenile champion Shanghai Bobby in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) last fall. Since that loss, he has been in great form, winning the $1 million Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III) -- with Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) winner Itsmyluckyday finishing sixth -- and the Sham Stakes (gr. III) here at Santa Anita. But it is worth noting that Sham runner-up Den's Legacy, who was beaten just 1 1/2 lengths, returned to be beaten a massive seven lengths by Flashback in the Robert B. Lewis. Furthermore, Manando -- beaten just three lengths in the Sham -- came back to run last in the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III) at Golden Gate Fields. If you want to take these efforts at face value, than Flashback looms the horse to beat, regardless of his inexperience.

We won't take a look at every other horse entered in the San Felipe, but allow me to briefly mention Tiz a Minister and Omega Star, the 1-2 finishers from the California Breeders Stakes last month. Both ran quite well, with Tiz a Minister rallying from out of the clouds over a sloppy track to win by 1 1/4 lengths over Omega Star, who seized the lead at the top of the stretch, only to shorten stride in the final furlong and wind up second. Of the two, I prefer Omega Star today, given that a fast track is likely and that John Shirreffs isn't one to run a lightly-raced three-year-old in a major Derby prep unless he thinks he has a shot at winning. But Tiz a Minister should not be disregarded -- his late rally in the California Breeders Stakes was not an illusion. I personally hand-timed his last half-mile in about :47 2/5 seconds, with fractions of :11 2/5, :23 1/5, and :35 1/5. That is blazing fast.

Selections: Flashback, Omega Star, Goldencents

Other Races of Note

At Aqueduct . . .

Race 9: Jimmy Winkfield Stakes winner Clawback will be attempting to win his third straight race in the $100,000 Fred "Freddy" Capossela Stakes going six furlongs on the main track. A very talented colt with a great deal of speed, he should be able to win this race without any trouble. Whiskey Romeo is unbeaten in three starts, including a pair of stakes at Maryland, and looms the most likely upsetter while making his three-year-old debut. Personally, I am highly intrigued by Maleeh, who broke his maiden in eye-catching fashion at Aqueduct in January and appears to be a very promising colt indeed.

At Gulfstream Park . . .

Race 3: Nick Zito's promising colt Declan's Warrior returns in this 7-1/2 furlong allowance optional claiming race on the main track. Most recently beaten a neck by Todd Pletcher's Park City in a 6-1/2 furlong allowance race -- his first start in about four months -- Declan's Warrior should be much sharper today, and looms very hard to beat. Acclaim, second to Verrazano in a January maiden special weight a winner of a similar race in January, is the second choice on the morning line.

Race 8: Apex, runner-up in a pair of maiden special weights at Saratoga last fall, will make his first start since then in this seven-furlong maiden special weight. His primary opposition will likely come from Red Rifle, a promising first-time starter from the barn of Todd Pletcher.

At Tampa Bay Downs . . .

Race 5: Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. I) runner-up Noble Tune is scheduled to make his first start since that race in this one-mile turf allowance race. Trained by Chad Brown, Noble Tune -- with his powerful finishing kick and strong training schedule -- should be ready to get back in the winner's circle today. Pataky Kid, who has shown talent on Polytrack, will try to transfer his form to turf for the first time. Are You Kidding Me, runner-up in the Summer Stakes (gr. II) on the Woodbine turf last fall, but unraced since finishing fifth in the Dixiana Breeders' Futurity (gr. I), should also be right in contention.

-Keelerman