1.
Revolutionary (War Pass - Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Todd Pletcher
The announcement that Calvin Borel will ride this colt in the Derby seals the deal for me. Calvin should be just perfect for Revolutionary, whose slow-starting ways could lead to severe traffic issues in a twenty-horse field. With Calvin aboard, Revolutionary should be able to tuck in along the rail somewhere before rallying around the far turn to engage the leaders in the stretch -- a picture-perfect "Bo-rail" ride.
2.
Verrazano (More Than Ready - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He arrived at Churchill Downs on Sunday and is expected to turn in his first official workout there tomorrow morning. There's no denying that he's coming into the race in top form, but now Pletcher must keep him there for the next two weeks. That's not the easiest thing to do -- remember Eskendereya? -- but if all goes well, Verrazano should have every chance to keep his unbeaten record intact on the first Saturday in May.
3.
Orb (Malibu Moon - Lady Liberty, by Unbridled) Trained by Shug McGaughey
Breezed a half-mile in :48 flat at Payson Park Training Center last Sunday, and is expected to conduct the majority of his pre-Derby training at Payson as well. Unfortunately for us, that means we won't be able to see him get in a major workout at Churchill Downs, but while that may be beneficial, it's certainly not crucial -- I'll Have Another's final workout came at Betfair Hollywood Park.
4.
Normandy Invasion (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Trained by Chad Brown
Hard to believe that this colt still has only a maiden victory to his credit. He's been right there in all of his stakes attempts, closing well at the finish, but just never quite getting there. Whether he'll be able to finally "get there" in the Derby is the big question, but after the disappointments of Hard Spun, Eight Belles, and Friesan Fire, isn't it about time for Fox Hill Farm to win the Derby?
5.
Oxbow (Awesome Again - Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
Maybe I'm stubborn to keep him this high, but he had a truly awful trip in the Arkansas Derby, dropping back to last early on before rallying fairly well in the homestretch to finish fifth, beaten one length for second. To take a speedy colt like Oxbow, capable of claiming the early advantage, and make him come from off the pace is a scenario that rarely works. I don't blame jockey Gary Stevens for the ride at all -- it was either drop back to last or enter the first turn six or seven horses wide, which probably would have been even worse. One thing is for certain -- if Oxbow draws a better post position in the Derby, and is able to break well and use his early speed, we could witness a truly breakthrough performance from this talented colt.
6.
Goldencents (Into Mischief - Golden Works, by Banker's Gold) Trained by Doug O'Neill
Returned to the work tab on Wednesday, breezing a moderate half-mile in :47.40. Given Doug O'Neill's training style, I wouldn't be surprised if Goldencents concludes his major training sometime next week with a solid six-furlong work, much like I'll Have Another did last year.
7.
Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron - Viva La Slew, by Doneraile Court) Trained by Edward Plesa, Jr.
I was pleased to see that he worked a mile at Calder two days ago, getting the distance in a good 1:43.20 seconds. That's a real stamina-building workout, and exactly what a colt like Itsmyluckyday needs heading into the Derby.
8.
Vyjack (Into Mischief - Life Happened, by Stravinsky) Trained by Rudy Rodriguez
Breezed an easy half-mile in :51.60 at Fair Hill Training Center yesterday morning, his first work since his third-place effort in the Wood Memorial. I have mixed feelings about him going into the Derby, since he did have some minor breathing issues in the Wood, but assuming they get cleared up, won't he be sitting on a career-best performance?
9.
Will Take Charge (Unbridled's Song - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
Not sure how long it's been since a Derby winner entered the Churchill classic off of a seven-week layoff, but I can guarantee you it's been more than a half-century. That only makes Will Take Charge's chances somewhat difficult to interpret, but when you throw in the fact that Lukas rarely -- if ever -- gives his three-year-olds that much time between races, things get even more confusing. His training during the next two weeks will be critical.
10.
Palace Malice (Curlin - Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Successfully came back in the Blue Grass Stakes off of just two weeks rest to finish second, thus securing enough points to make the Derby field. Hard to say what to make of his performance, since he was tiring badly at the finish. But let's not forget that the Blue Grass was Palace Malice's first start on Polytrack, and to be beaten a neck under those circumstances is impressive indeed. Now the only concern is that the Derby will be his third race in five weeks -- a mini-Triple Crown, in other words.
11.
Java's War (War Pass - Java, by Rainbow Quest) Trained by Kenny McPeek
Let's give him some credit -- his late rally in the Blue Grass was exceptional, and the fact that he overcame such a slow start is astonishing. But that was the Blue Grass, and he's heading to Kentucky. The caliber of the competition is going to be much higher. The surface will be dirt, not Polytrack. That's not to say he can't adapt and win the Derby. But in order to do so, I don't think he can afford to give up so much ground at the start.
12.
Charming Kitten (Kitten's Joy - Iteration, by Wild Again) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Take a look at this colt's record. In seven starts, he has finished in the top three six times. His lone off-the-board effort came in the Dixiana Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) last fall, in which he was beaten 4 1/4 lengths after being "bumped hard between horses entering the stretch" (Equibase chart). In the Blue Grass Stakes, he was actually fairly close up during the early stages before he shuffled back and forced to steady behind horses. Despite this rough trip, he came running with a strong stretch bid, and was finishing pretty much in unison with Java's War during the final furlong. The wild card is that he's never run on dirt before, but Kitten's Joy has proven he can throw good dirt horses as well as turf horses, and the presence of Breeders' Cup Classic winner Wild Again in the bottom half of his pedigree is encouraging.
13.
Overanalyze (Dixie Union - Unacloud, by Unaccounted For) Trained by Todd Pletcher
I haven't known what to do with this colt all year, and I still don't after the Arkansas Derby. That was a powerful victory, and he was wide every step of the way, but the final time of 1:51.94 was the slowest in over thirty years, and the Beyer came back a slow 88. My final opinion of him may simply come down to how well he trains during the next couple of weeks.
14.
Govenor Charlie (Midnight Lute - Silverbulletway, by Storm Cat) Trained by Bob Baffert
Took a trip to Rood and Riddle for a foot examination, and although the tests came back fine, it's nevertheless a worrisome setback. You just don't like to see Derby contenders at a hospital less than three weeks from the race. That said, he seems to be fine, and has arrived at Churchill Downs for his final training.
15.
Black Onyx (Rock Hard Ten - Kalahari Cat, by Cape Town) Trained by Kelly Breen
Spiral Stakes winner is due for a workout, and it wouldn't surprise me if it comes tomorrow morning. The form of the Spiral was somewhat muddled by the results of the Blue Grass, with Spiral runner-up Uncaptured finishing well off-the-board, while Spiral also-rans Fear the Kitten and Balance the Books actually ran pretty well at Keeneland. This is another colt whose training I will be studying with interest during the coming weeks.
16.
Mylute (Midnight Lute - Stage Stop, by Valid Expectations) Trained by Tom Amoss
Turned in a very sharp six-furlong breeze at Churchill on April 14th, getting the distance in a bullet 1:12.20. According to Amoss, the colt will not have any more serious workouts from now until the Derby, so it will be difficult to say for certain how he is progressing during the final two weeks.
17.
Lines of Battle (War Front - Black Speck, by Arch) Trained by Aidan O'Brien
Like fellow Coolmore Derby contenders Master of Hounds and Daddy Long Legs before him, Lines of Battle will be conducting the vast majority of his training at Ballydoyle in Ireland, so there won't be much to write about him during the next couple of weeks. I haven't heard for certain who will ride him at Churchill, although it certainly wouldn't be surprising if Ryan Moore -- who rode the colt to victory in the UAE Derby -- were to retain the mount.
18.
Frac Daddy (Scat Daddy - Skipper's Mate, by Skip Away) Trained by Kenny McPeek
About the only thing that has gone right for Frac Daddy this spring was his runner-up effort in the Arkansas Derby last week, which secured him enough points to continue on to Churchill. It was certainly a sharper effort than the ones he showcased in the Florida Derby and Holy Bull Stakes, but that said, he was still beaten 4 1/4 lengths by Overanalyze. Nice to see him living up to the potential he displayed as a two-year-old, but he's going to have to improve further to contend in Louisville.
19.
Code West (Lemon Drop Kid - Charitabledonation, by Saint Ballado) Trained by Bob Baffert
At the moment, Bob Baffert is pointing this colt toward a start in the Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II) at Belmont, but that is subject to change. Should Baffert change his mind and re-route Code West to the Derby, he would have to be considered a contender based off of his nose defeat in the Risen Star Stakes two starts back.
20.
Titletown Five (Tiznow - D' Wildcat Speed, by Forest Wildcat) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
Surprise! He's back on my list! With just two weeks remaining until the Derby, determining who to include on this list has as much to do with who intends to run as it does with who has shown the most talent. In the case of Titletown Five, he will be using the Derby Trial Stakes (gr. III) one week from now as a possible springboard to the Derby itself, a feat rarely tried by modern-day trainers. On that note, it's worth pointing out that the last horse to use the Derby Trial as a prep for the Derby -- Don't Get Mad, who ran fourth in the 2005 Derby -- was trained by Lukas.
-Keelerman
