Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Capo Bastone entered to race on 2-16-13 at Gulfstream Park

Capo Bastone, who finished third in both the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) and FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I) last year, will make his debut for trainer Todd Pletcher on Saturday in the ninth race at Gulfstream Park, a 1 1/16th miles allowance optional claiming race.

The son of Street Boss was trained throughout his two-year-old season by John Sadler, and compiled a record of 1-0-2 from 4 starts, with earnings of $288,000. Shortly after the Breeders' Cup, Capo Bastone was transferred to Todd Pletcher's barn at Palm Meadows Training Center, where he has been breezing steadily since the beginning of January.

Also entered in the race are Edge of Reality, who broke his maiden by eight lengths at Parx Racing last month, and Sky Commander, runner-up to Dynamic Sky in the Pasco Stakes at Tampa. Both colts are expected to draw a great deal of support in the wagering, and looked poised to pull an upset should Capo Bastone fail to fire his best shot off the layoff.

Post Positions:
1 Offlee Fast
2 Duke of the City
3 Edge of Reality
4 Sky Commander
5 Capo Bastone
6 Taken by the Storm
7 Finn's Quest
8 Irsaal

-Keelerman

El Camino Real Derby entries: Zeewat goes for 3rd straight win

Three-time stakes winner Zeewat will attempt to stretch his running streak to three on Saturday when he heads to post as the likely favorite for the $200,000 El Camino Real Derby (gr. III) at Golden Gate Fields.

Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, the son of Harlan's Holiday enters this race off of an eye-catching victory in the California Derby, in which he overcame a troubled start to win by a half-length. As a two-year-old, Zeewat won the Gold Rush Stakes and Cavonnier Juvenile Stakes, in addition to placing third in the Golden Nugget Stakes and fourth in the Tim Conway Stakes.

Lined up to face Zeewat are eight other promising three-year-olds, including two -- Manando and Carving -- from the barn of three-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert. Manando enters the El Camino off of a close third-place finish to Goldencents and Den's Legacy in the Sham Stakes (gr. III) at Santa Anita, while Carving is making his three-year-old debut after completing a successful two-year-old campaign that included victories in the Real Quiet Stakes and C. B. Afflerbaugh Stakes.

Other prominent entrants include Rush In and Nina Dragon, the 2-3 finishers behind Greeley Awesome in a recent allowance optional claiming race; and Wildcat Moon, the runner-up to Zeewat in the California Derby.

Post Positions:
1 Wildcat Moon
2 Rush In
3 Counting Days
4 Manando
5 Zeewat
6 Nina's Dragon
7 North Pacific
8 Carving
9 Dice Flavor

-Keelerman

Tuesday, February 12, 2013

Fortify to make seasonal debut in UAE 2,000 Guineas

Fortify, who finished second in last year's Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) to Eclipse champion Shanghai Bobby, is scheduled to make his three-year-old debut on Thursday in the $250,000 UAE 2,000 Guineas Sponsored by Al Tayer Motors (UAE-III) at Meydan Racecourse.

Owned by Godolphin Racing, Fortify has drawn post position four in the 1,600-meter (about one-mile) race. A son of Distorted Humor out of the A.P. Indy mare Kotuku, Fortify showed a great deal of talent as a two-year-old, compiling a record of 1-1-1 from 4 starts and earnings of $268,000. Following a fourth-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), Fortify was transferred from trainer Kiaran McLaughlin to Mahmoud Al Zarooni, who has been preparing the colt for this race.

Seven other three-year-old colts are entered in the race, including the unbeaten Soft Falling Rain, who won all five of his starts as a juvenile. Trained by Mike de Kock, the son of National Assembly

Other prominent contenders include Deauville Prince, who ran fourth in the group I Gran Criterium at Milan last October, and Glass Officer, winner of the Betfred the Bonus King Sirenia Stakes (Eng-III) in September.

Post Positions:
1 Filfil
2 Deauville Prince
3 Snowboarder
4 Fortify
5 Zahee
6 Pure Excellence
7 Glass Office
8 Soft Falling Rain

-Keelerman

Saturday, February 09, 2013

Dynamic Strike wins Miracle Wood Stakes

Dynamic Strike made his stakes debut a successful one when he rallied to defeat Where's Dominic by a length in the $125,000 Miracle Wood Stakes at Laurel Park.

With jockey Julien Pimentel aboard, Dynamic Strike settled back in fourth place early on in the one-mile race, about four or five lengths behind pace-setting Yougotthatgoinforu. Alpha Mike Foxtrot and Vegas No Show were tracking the pace in second and third, while Where's Dominic and Lunar Rock were the trailers.

Through fractions of :24.02, :47.28, and 1:13.55 seconds, Yougotthatgoinforu continued to lead the way, but turning for home Vegas No Show slipped through along the rail to grab the lead and appeared to be on his way to victory. However, Yougotthatgoinforu had something left in the tank, and gamely clung to his advantage as the eighth pole neared.

But then, in the blink of an eye, the rest of the field had caught up with them. For a few moments, all six of the runners were spread across the race track with little more than a length between them. But coming down to the finish, Where's Dominic and Dynamic Strike pulled clear of the rest, with the latter eventually edging the former to win the race in 1:40.58 seconds.

Lunar Rock rallied up the fence to finish third, followed by Yougotthatgoinforu and Vegas No Show. Alpha Mike Foxtrot stumbled and fell in deep stretch. Unfortunately, he was too severely injured to save, and had to be euthanized.

The winner is trained by Dick Small and owned by Fitzhugh LLC. A son of Smart Strike out of the Deputy Minister mare Dynamic Deputy, Dynamic Strike has now compiled a record of 3-0-0 from 4 starts.

-Keelerman

Saint Vigeur breaks maiden at Gulfstream Park

Saint Vigeur flashed speed from the start and held off all challenges to win a 1 1/16th miles maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park in gate-to-wire fashion.

Ridden to victory by Javier Castellano, Saint Vigeur got off to an excellent start from post position one and quickly seized command of the lead, setting fractions of :23.63, :47.55, and 1:12.02 while being tracked by Tapulous. Freedom Child was right on their outside in third, followed then by War Dancer and Wabbajack. O T B Bob, Carson City Brew, Scipio, and Dyker Beach were the trailers.

Rounding the far turn, Tapulous and Freedom Child moved up to engage Saint Vigeur for the lead, and before long Wabbajack rallied into contention as well. Tapulous dropped out of contention shortly after entering the homestretch, but Saint Vigeur, Wabbajack, and Freedom Child continued to battle for command throughout the homestretch, with Saint Vigeur holding on to win by a length over Wabbajack in the time of 1:44.26 seconds.

Freedom Child finished third, while War Dancer rounded out the superfecta.

The winner is trained by Chad Brown.

-Keelerman

Park City edges Declan's Warrior in Gulfstream allowance race

Park City, making his first start since breaking his maiden first-time out at Saratoga last summer, rallied along the rail to edge Declan's Warrior by a neck in a 6-1/2 furlong allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream Park.

Ridden to victory by John Velazquez, Park City broke just a step slowly, and soon found himself racing along the rail in fourth place as 50-1 shot Cat Five Hurricane led the way through fractions of :22.10 and :45.30. Jay Eye See and Red Hot Randy were tracking the pace in second and third, while favored Little Distorted raced on the far outside in fifth. Declan's Warrior, John Gordon, and Dighton were the trailers.

Rounding the final turn, Cat Five Hurricane began to open up on the field, and the longshot entered the homestretch in front by about three lengths. In the meantime, Park City had stayed on the rail and was making up ground rapidly, while Declan's Warrior had threaded his way in between horses to commence a strong challenge on the outside. Coming down to the finish, any one of the three colts could have won, but the wire came just in time for Park City, who stuck his head in front of Cat Five Hurricane a few strides before the finish and held off the charge from Declan's Warrior to win by a neck. The final time was 1:17.53 seconds.

Declan's Warrior edged Cat Five Hurricane by a similar margin for second, while Jay Eye See, Dighton, Red Hot Randy, Little Distorted, and John Gordon completed the order of finish.

The winner is trained by Todd Pletcher and owned by Starlight Racing. A son of Harlan's Holiday out of the Pleasant Colony mare Light Show, Park City is now unbeaten in two starts.

-Keelerman

Triple Crown Countdown 2-9-13


This weekend is a bit light in terms of Kentucky Derby prep races -- actually, there are no official preps on the agenda -- so instead of simply focusing on the day's best races, we shall begin today's Triple Crown Countdown with a quick look at the first Kentucky Derby future wager pool, which opened yesterday.

My first thought upon seeing the odds was that there are several severe overlays. Imagine this -- there are twenty-four betting interests. Fully eleven of them -- Capo Bastone, Code West, Delhomme, Den's Legacy, Dynamic Sky, Falling Sky, Frac Daddy, Mylute, Super Ninety Nine, Vyjack, and Will Take Charge -- are 99-1 or higher, and a twelfth -- Uncaptured -- currently sits at 96-1.

In my opinion, the best value in the pool is Code West. What's not to like? He's trained by Bob Baffert. He has a strong mile-and-a-quarter pedigree. He just finished second in a strong allowance race at Santa Anita Park, earning a Beyer speed figure of 94. In contrast, that is a higher figure than anything Flashback (20-1), Oxbow (48-1), and Violence (9-1) have earned. Furthermore, Code West is bound for a graded stakes race next time out, and a victory -- which is certainly not out of the question -- would drastically lower his odds in future wager pool #2.

Capo Bastone, Dynamic Sky, Frac Daddy, and Super Ninety Nine also look like exceptional values. The latter colt earned a Beyer of 100 when defeating Code West in that recent allowance race, and that 100 is among the highest figures earned by a member of this three-year-old crop. And Frac Daddy -- wasn't he on everyone's Derby lists prior to his defeat in the Holy Bull? If you're willing to forgive his poor effort, which was surely the result of a hoof injury suffered early in the race, then I think now would be the time to lock in a great price.

Another colt that looks a bit high-priced to me is Holy Bull winner Itsmyluckyday, who currently sits at 20-1. In contrast, Shanghai Bobby -- whom he defeated in the Holy Bull -- is 9-1. Assuming Itsmyluckyday wins the Florida Derby, or even finishes a close second, he'll likely be a lot lower than 20-1 on Derby day.

****

A couple of other things to add before we move on to handicapping today's races… First off, it has been confirmed that Uncaptured, who has been dealing with hoof issues since his victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) last November, is pointing toward a start in either the Spiral Stakes (gr. III) or the Rushaway Stakes on March 23rd. He still isn't back on the work tab, but it shouldn't be long now before he turns in his first breeze of the year.

Also, Titletown Five, who broke his maiden in spectacular fashion for trainer D. Wayne Lukas last October, turned in his second breeze of the year this morning when he traversed a half-mile in :48.20 at Oaklawn Park. It was the second-fastest of sixty-two such morning works, signaling that the colt could be back to the races within the next month or so.

****

Time to start handicapping! We'll begin with the Miracle Wood Stakes at Laurel, the only stakes for three-year-old colts scheduled for this afternoon.

Miracle Wood Stakes
8 furlongs on the Laurel Park main track

As I write this, two of the eight entrants have been scratched, leaving a field of just six to contest the $125,000 stakes.

Heavily favored on the morning line at 7-5 is Vegas No Show, winner of the Dover Stakes and runner-up in the Nashua Stakes (gr. II) last year. However, his two most recent efforts have been below par for him -- a 28 1/2-length defeat in the Remsen Stakes (gr. II) was followed by a 5 3/4-length loss in the Jerome Stakes (gr. II). On the other hand, his last two workouts have been very sharp, including a bullet five-furlong breeze, and he looks poised to turn in a much-improved performance.

Alpha Mike Foxtrot has plenty of experience, having raced ten times as a juvenile, and enters this race off of a runner-up effort to the well-regarded Ore Pass in the Frank Whitely, Jr. Stakes here at Laurel. Previously, he had won the Maryland Juvenile Championship Stakes -- also at Laurel -- with a powerful late rally. Expect to see him rallying fast in the homestretch.

Dynamic Strike, a well-bred son of Smart Strike, has won two consecutive races at a mile in sharp fashion, but is taking a fairly substantial step up in class and will have to be sharp to beat the two favorites. Where's Dominic has won two of his three starts sprinting, but is now stretching beyond six furlongs for the first time. Lunar Rock has finished first, second, or third in nine of his ten starts, but has been beaten soundly by Alpha Mike Foxtrot in his last two starts. Rounding out the field is Yougotthatgoinforu, who wired a one-mile allowance race in December at Penn National. Obviously, he does possess some tactical speed, but this is a much tougher field than the ones he's been facing at Penn National, and he appears to be in a bit deep here.

Selections: Alpha Mike Foxtrot, Vegas No Show, Lunar Rock

Other Races of Note

At Fair Grounds . . .

Race 7: Hard to say if any Triple Crown candidates will emerge from this 8.5-furlong maiden special weight on the turf, but I'll be watching nonetheless to see if Hansen's full brother Gunderson can finally break his maiden. He lost his first two starts by a combined 30 1/2 lengths, but flashed much better form last time out to be beaten just 2 1/4 lengths on the main track here at Fair Grounds. Perhaps he won't win, but he has the speed to be a contender from the start.

Race 10: This six-furlong allowance optional claiming race marks the return of Carson's Crown, a debut winner that hasn't run since finishing a troubled second in the Hollywood Juvenile Championships Stakes (gr. III) last July. Formerly trained by John Sadler, he will make his debut for Michael Stidham in this race. Favorite Uncle, third to Malibu High in a similar event to this one in December; sharp maiden claiming winner Take It Like a Man; and the experienced Tap and Trade are other well-regarded entrants.

At Gulfstream Park . . .

Race 5: Forget the wonderful quartet of graded stakes races later on the card! The highlight of the day for the Triple Crown-obsessed is the 6-1/2 furlong allowance optional claiming race that has drawn such promising names as Little Distorted (3rd in Spectacular Bid Stakes, beat Revolutionary in debut), Declan's Warrior (1st in debut at Belmont; unraced since), Park City (Pletcher-trained maiden winner at Saratoga; unraced since); John Gordon (5th in Sanford for Dale Romans; unraced since); Almost English (5th in Gulfstream Park Derby); and Jay Eye See (7th to Majestic Hussar and Palace Malice in recent allowance; previously broke maiden by daylight.)

Race 6: Todd Pletcher has the favorite in this mile and a sixteenth maiden special weight, the colt in question being Tapulous. A son of (who else!) Tapit, the colt has only run once, finishing a so-so fourth in a six-furlong maiden special weight here at Gulfstream last month. Given that he flashed some good speed that day, I would think that Tapulous will have a good shot at stretching out and stealing this race on the front end. Wabbajack, third to Looking Cool and Doherty in a recent maiden special weight; Dyker Beach, beaten a half-length in a race similar to this one last month; the consistent O T B Bob; and the promising Chad Brown-trainee Saint Vigeur are the other main contenders, the latter colt looking especially strong.

Race 7: Todd Pletcher also has the favorite in this race, a 1 1/16th miles allowance race on the turf. His runner here is Jack Milton, who was highly impressive breaking his maiden under these same conditions last month. The possessor of an exceptional turn-of-foot, Jack Milton looks tough to beat in this spot. The speedy Play It Loud; the stakes-placed Newfound Zapper, and the well-bred stretch-out sprinter Sayaad are the other logical contenders.

At Santa Anita . . .

Race 7: Nine three-year-old colts have been entered in this six-furlong maiden special weight, with the morning line favorite being Bob Baffert's first-timer starter Zee Bros. A son of Brother Derek out of the Montbrook mare Nyanza -- a very different pedigree, don't you agree? -- Zee Bros has been training up a storm for months, and looks ready to win. To be perfectly honest, I think he may launch himself on to everyone's Derby lists tomorrow. Other notable entrants include Bench Press, third to the promising Cabello Del Cielo in a recent maiden special weight; Joelito, unraced since finishing second by a neck to Den's Legacy in a maiden race at Del Mar last summer; and Salutos Amigos, fourth to Let Em Shine sprinting six furlongs on January 19th.

-Keelerman

Frac Daddy breezes four furlongs

Frac Daddy, who finished sixth in last month's Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) after injuring his hoof early in the race, returned to the work tab on the morning of February 9th at Gulfstream Park.

The son of Scat Daddy was timed breezing a half-mile in :49.28 seconds, the twenty-third fastest of thirty-four works at that distance. Trained by Kenny McPeek, Frac Daddy's next race has yet to be determined, but the $400,000 Risen Star Stakes (gr. III) on February 23rd at Fair Grounds is probably not out of the question.

-Keelerman

Friday, February 08, 2013

Keelerman's Derby Top Twenty 2-8-13

1. Tiz the Truth (Tiznow - Truly Blessed, by Deputy Minister) Trained by Bob Baffert
Are you surprised? You had better be -- I myself couldn't believe it when I decided to put this colt at the top of my list. But his maiden victory on Saturday was other-worldly. Yes, the pace he set was definitely on the slow side, and it's not like there was a world-class field behind him. But what I just can't get over is that he closed his final two furlongs in :11.61 and :11.87 seconds. That is just mind-boggling. The last maiden I can remember doing something similar was Bodemeister. Furthermore, Tiz the Truth's final time of 1:36.28 was quicker than the one-mile fractions of the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (1:36.53) and the Strub Stakes (1:36.47) later in the day. Oh yeah, and as an added bonus, Gary Stevens is his rider. Imagine the excitement that would ensue should Gary make it to the Derby!

2. Normandy Invasion (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Trained by Chad Brown
He's up to five furlongs in his training, having breezed that distance in 1:01.23 seconds on February 3rd. Displacing him from the top spot has nothing to do with a change of opinion or heart -- I just really liked Tiz the Truth's effort and wanted to put him at #1.

3. Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron - Viva La Slew, by Doneraile Court) Trained by Edward Plesa, Jr.
He is to have just one more prep race before the Kentucky Derby, that coming in the Florida Derby (gr. I) on March 30th. However, it's interesting to note that he has only earned 10 Kentucky Derby qualification points -- and with that in mind, he's going to have to be sharp for the Florida Derby, because he can't afford a poor finish.

4. Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday - Steelin', by Orientate) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Like his Holy Bull conqueror Itsmyluckyday, Shanghai Bobby will use the Florida Derby as his only other stop on the road to Louisville. But unlike Itsmyluckyday, Shanghai Bobby is positioned a bit better in terms of qualification points, having already earned 24. A third-place finish should secure him a spot in the Derby, and even a fourth-place finish would probably suffice. Truth be told, the chances of him performing that badly are remote, but after what happened to Union Rags and El Padrino last year -- who knows?

5. Revolutionary (War Pass - Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Forget the low Beyer speed figure. Forget the fact that he won by just a neck. Revolutionary's performance in the Withers Stakes (gr. III) last Saturday was among the most spectacular I have ever seen from a three-year-old colt. After breaking slowly and winding up dead-last rounding the final turn, Revolutionary weaved his way between horses in the homestretch, saw an opening between horses with about a sixteenth of a mile to go, and surged through to win in dramatic fashion. He had every right to lose that race, but he didn't. The guts to turn certain defeat into victory by rallying through tiny holes could prove useful in a race like the Derby.

6. Flashback (Tapit - Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greely) Trained by Bob Baffert
Like Tiz the Truth, Flashback got a very easy trip in his Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) victory, but did finish up well to win by over six lengths. It was a very good performance, and he obviously had something left in the tank, but I didn't think it was quite as sharp as Tiz the Truth's maiden victory earlier on the card. Regardless, there's plenty of potential for Flashback, who is likely to use the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) in March as a prep for the Santa Anita Derby.

7. Verrazano (More Than Ready - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Up until recently, I thought that Gunderman was a pretty decent horse. Then I watched him get beat nearly seventeen lengths by Verrazano. So . . . either Gunderman isn't the horse I thought he was, or this Verrazano colt is nothing short of amazing . . . I'll go with the latter. Words cannot describe how powerful Verrazano looked on Saturday, drawing off under virtually no urging to win a one-mile allowance race at Gulfstream Park in 1:34.80. That was an unreal performance, and the scary part is that he clearly had something left in the tank.

8. Titletown Five (Tiznow - D' Wildcat Speed, by Forest Wildcat) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
Call me stubborn if you like, but I'm putting him back on my list. This morning, he breezed for the first time since breaking his maiden, going three furlongs in :37 1/5. I'll admit he's running out of time to join the Triple Crown trail, but if any trainer can get a horse like this to the Derby, it's Lukas.

9. Capo Bastone (Stree Boss - Fight to Love, by Fit to Fight) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He still seems to be several works away from his first start, as his most recent breeze was five-eighths in 1:02.90, but I still think that his efforts in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) and FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I) last year were two deceptively good efforts. I'm looking forward to his return, whenever it may be.

10. Violence (Medaglia d'Oro - Violent Beauty, by Gone West) Trained by Todd Pletcher
With just a little more than two weeks remaining before his seasonal debut in the Fountain of Youth, I expect we'll be seeing a sharp workout from Violence this weekend. I'm still having a ton of trouble gauging just how good this colt is, so the Fountain of Youth should go a long way toward determining his future rankings.

11. War Academy (Giant's Causeway - Cabbage Key, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Bob Baffert
Remember last week, when I noted in confusion that War Academy had breezed on turf? Well, he went back to dirt for his next work, traversing six furlongs in 1:12.60 from the gate on February 4th. He is nominated -- along with stablemates Belvin and Shakin It Up -- to the $150,000 San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) on February 17th, and I wouldn't be surprised if he is entered.

12. Overanalyze (Dixie Union - Unacloud, by Unaccounted For) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Like I've said in the past, I really don't know where to put this colt, and I won't until I see how he runs in the Gotham. There's no denying that his victory in the Remsen (gr. II) last fall was excellent. On the other hand, he seemed somewhat one-paced that day, and he's probably going to have to show a little better turn-of-foot to win a race like the Derby.

13. Oxbow (Awesome Again - Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
Here's another colt that I'm not sure what to do with. His LeComte win was great. He seemed to have something left in the tank at the finish. But he set a slow pace -- can he go faster early and still finish strongly? This will be the key to his future success, and I hope to see him answer that question in the Risen Star.

14. Dynamic Sky (Sky Mesa - Murani, by Distorted Humor) Trained by Mark Casse
I thought his performance in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) was good, but not quite what I was hoping for. True, he got hung wide around both turns, and he did finish up well in deep stretch. But I didn't like the way he was drifting in early stretch. Had he maintained a straight course, I am confident he could have won. Hopefully, he'll straighten out and keep his focus better in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) next month.

15. Palace Malice (Curlin - Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem) Trained by Todd Pletcher
It sounds as though he'll make his much-anticipated stakes debut in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) on February 23rd, where we'll get a chance to see how he stacks up against Normandy Invasion and Oxbow. Breezed a half-mile in the good time of :48.19 seconds on February 3rd, so he should certainly be ready in time.

16. Transparent (Bernardini - Habiboo, by Unbridled's Song) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
There are plenty of options available for this promising colt's next start, including the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) on March 2nd and the Wood Memorial (gr. I) on April 6th. Both races would seem to fit his schedule well, and he certainly has the foundation to jump into graded stakes company. After all, he's already got six starts under his belt -- that's two more than Verrazano and Flashback combined! :)

17. Cerro (Mr. Greeley - Ballette, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Graham Motion
He'll get another big test on March 3rd, when he contests the Palm Beach Stakes (gr. III) at Gulfstream Park. From there, he'll head to the Spiral Stakes (gr. III) at Turfway Park, where he will try and give Team Valor a three-peat following the victories of Animal Kingdom in 2011 and Went the Day Well in 2012.

18. Goldencents (Into Mischief - Golden Works, by Banker's Gold) Trained by Doug O'Neill
It's beginning to look as though the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) on March 9th could be one of the best Derby preps of the year, at least from an anticipation standpoint. Both Goldencents and Flashback are pointing toward the race, with He's Had Enough, Tiz the Truth, Demonic, Tiz a Minister, and others possible as well. It should be a very stiff test for Goldencents, who will have to prove that he can handle the presence of other quality front-runners and still hold off the closers.

19. Proud Strike (Smart Strike - Colonella, by Pleasant Colony) Trained by Steve Asmussen
Breezed five furlongs on February 4th in a very sharp 1:00.60 at Fair Grounds, signaling that a race like the Risen Star could be next on the agenda.

20. Fortify (Distorted Humor - Kotuku, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
After months of wondering why he wasn't on the work tab, it hit me a few days ago. A Godolphin-owned three-year-old . . . why, he's probably in Dubai! That turned out to be the case, as it was recently announced that Fortify will make his three-year-old debut in the UAE 2,000 Guineas on February 14th. Hard to say if he's being pointed toward the Kentucky Derby, but he certainly turned in some nice efforts last year, and if he finds success in Dubai -- who knows?

21. Code West (Lemon Drop Kid - Charitabledonation, by Saint Ballado) Trained by Bob Baffert
A full-brother to 2009 Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II) winner Charitable Man, this Bob Baffert-trainee recently returned from a three-month layoff to finish second in a one-mile allowance race at Santa Anita, behind fellow Baffert-trainee Super Ninety Nine. While Super Ninety Nine was more impressive on the day, I like the overall impression that Code West has given during his career, and his pedigree suggests that ten furlongs will be well within his range.

*****

As you may have noticed, Dewey Square has been removed from my top twenty. I had originally intended to leave him on, but with so many impressive efforts from up-and-comers last week, not much to say about this colt until he gets back on the work tab. To the best of my knowledge, no next-race plans have been announced, so we'll have to take a wait-and-see approach with this colt until further notice.

Also disappearing from this week's rankings are He's Had Enough, Frac Daddy, Will Take Charge, and Tiz a Minister. The first-mentioned colt has been dropped off of his disappointing third in the Robert B. Lewis, while the other two have been removed to make way for other up-and-coming runners.

Narrowly failing to make this week's list is Falling Sky, winner of the Sam F. Davis Stakes. Give him a ton of credit -- he successfully stretched his speed around two turns and showed a lot of grit in holding off Dynamic Sky to win in good fashion. But while his pedigree suggests that ten furlongs could be within his range, he has given me the impression thus far that he may be at his best sprinting. We'll learn more about him in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) next month.

-Keelerman

Sunday, February 03, 2013

Titletown Five returns to work tab

Titletown Five, who broke his maiden by nine lengths last October, returned to the work tab after a lengthy absence when he breezed three furlongs at Oaklawn Park this morning.

The son of Tiznow out of D' Wildcat Speed clocked the distance in :37 1/5, the fifth-fastest of the nine morning works at that distance.

Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, Titletown Five lost the first three starts of his career while competing against horses such as CashCall Futurity (gr. I) winner Violence, recent Gulfstream allowance winner Orb, Mountaineer Juvenile Stakes winner Maybe So, and the impressive Gulfport. In his fourth start, a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs, Titletown Five went straight to the lead and never looked back, winning by nine lengths over subsequent allowance winner Bradester and recent Fair Grounds maiden winner Proud Strike.

Titletown Five went to the sidelines shortly thereafter with an ankle chip. Today's breeze marks his first official workout since then. He is expected to return to the races sometime toward the end of March.

-Keelerman

Honorable Dillon makes the grade in Hutcheson Stakes

Honorable Dillon picked up the first graded stakes victory of his career when he rallied to the lead and held off Forty Tales to win the $150,000 Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II) at Gulfstream Park by a half-length.

Ridden to victory by Joseph Rocco Jr., Honorable Dillon was taken back to race in fourth early on, four lengths behind front-running Singanothersong. Undrafted and Merit Man were tracking the pace in second and third, while Weekend Hideaway, Forty Tales, Really Sharp, and Pataky Kid were the early trailers.

Through fractions of :22.07 and :44.64 Singanothersong led the way, but rounding the turn, Undrafted and Honorable Dillon moved up as a team to challenge for the lead. Undrafted was the first to gain the advantage, passing the eighth pole in front by a half-length following three-quarters of a mile in 1:09.40, but Honorable Dillon tenaciously rallied past to take command of the lead.

Forty Tales rallied quickly on the outside after racing along the rail for much of the race, but ran out of ground and fell a half-length short of Honorable Dillon, who reached the wire in 1:22.53 seconds.

Undrafted finished a nose behind Forty Tales in third, followed by Merit Man, Weekend Hideaway, Singanothersong, Pataky Kid, and Really Sharp.

Honorable Dillon is a son of Tapit out of Shy Greeting, by Shy Tom. He is trained by Eddie Keneally and owned by Joseph Brucci.

-Keelerman

Saturday, February 02, 2013

Falling Sky goes gate-to-wire in Sam F. Davis Stakes

Despite obviously tiring in the homestretch, Falling Sky succeeded in stretching his speed around two turns and won the $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) at Tampa Bay Downs by a neck.

With Jose Espinoza aboard, Falling Sky went straight to the front while setting a moderate pace of :23.49, :47.68, and 1:12.61 seconds. Divine Ambition was tracking him in second, followed by Balino, Dynamic Sky, Silver Day, and Speak Logistics. Lightning Stone, My Name Is Michael, and Midnite Poppa were the trailers.

Rounding the final turn, Dynamic Sky moved up to challenge Falling Sky for the lead, but the front-runner had plenty left in the tank and spurted clear to a two-length lead passing the eighth pole. Dynamic Sky refused to give in, closing fast in the final sixteenth of a mile to cut the margin to just a neck, but Falling Sky held on gamely to win the mile and a sixteenth race in 1:44.79 seconds, a respectable time over the generally slow Tampa Bay Downs main track.

My Name Is Michael rallied belatedly for third, three lengths behind Dynamic Sky. Speak Logistics, Midnite Poppa, Divine Ambition, Silver Day, Lightning Stone, and Balino completed the order of finish.

The winner, a son of Lion Heart out of the Sea Hero mare Sea Dragoness, is trained by John Terranova II and owned by Newton Anner Stud, James Covello, and Joseph Bulger.

-Keelerman

Revolutionary overcomes terrible trip in Withers Stakes

3-4 favorite Revolutionary overcame a terrible trip to win the $200,000 Withers Stakes (gr. III) at Aqueduct by a neck, proving to all who saw his performance that he is among the finest three-year-old colts in the country.

With Javier Castellano aboard, Revolutionary broke a step slowly at the beginning of the mile and a sixteenth race, and thus found himself in sixth place early on as Siete de Oros led the way through an opening quarter mile of :24.22 seconds. Escapefromreality and Smooth Bert were his closest pursuers, followed by Amerigo Vespucci, Long River, Revolutionary, Champion Boy, and Valid, who stumbled to his knees at the start and caused his rider to lose an iron.

Siete de Oros continued to lead the way through a half-mile in :48.18, but behind him, there were several position changes. Smooth Bert moved up to draw within a head of the front, while Long River cruised up on the outside to secure third position. Amerigo Vespucci was maintaining his position in fourth, while Escapefromreality was back to fifth. Champion Boy and Valid were next, while Revolutionary was dead last with about 4-1/2 furlongs to go.

As the field moved around the far turn, Siete de Oros boldly clung to his advantage over Smooth Bert, getting three-quarters of a mile in 1:12.48 seconds to enter the stretch still narrowly in front. In the meantime, Revolutionary had only Valid beaten, and was down along the rail with nowhere to run.

Back up front, Siete de Oros had opened up a one-length lead past the eighth pole, but Escapefromreality was moving up strongly to challenge for the lead and appeared to be on his way to victory.

But behind them, Revolutionary was building up steam, working his way between horses to reach contention. With just seventy yards to go, he was third; only the two leaders were left to pass. There was a narrow gap between them. With unprecedented acceleration Revolutionary exploded through the opening, getting up in time to beat Escapefromreality by a head in 1:44.32 seconds.

Siete de Oros tired just a bit in deep stretch, finishing 1 3/4 lengths behind the top pair in third. Amerigo Vespucci, Champion Boy, Smooth Bert, Valid, and Long River completed the order of finish.

The winner is owned by WinStar Farm and trained by Todd Pletcher. A son of War Pass out of the A.P. Indy mare Runup The Colors, Revolutionary has now compiled a record of 2-1-2 from five starts, with earnings of $188,500.

-Keelerman

Flashback romps in Robert B. Lewis Stakes

Flashback established himself as one of the leaders of the three-year-old division in California -- and perhaps the country -- when he drew off for an unbelievably easy victory in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita Park.

Ridden to victory by Julien Leparoux, Flashback got off to a very good beginning and was quickly sent to the lead, setting moderate fractions of :24.17, :48.69, and 1:12.17 while being tracked by He's Had Enough. Den's Legacy and Little Jerry were the trailers of the four-horse field.

Moving around the final turn, He's Had Enough came under pressure to try and stay with Flashback, while the latter colt was still under a hand ride from Leparoux. As it turned out, Flashback would remain under a hand ride for the rest of the race, for after disposing of He's Had Enough at the top of the stretch, Flashback began to draw away with ease. At the finish, he was in front by 6 1/4 lengths, stopping the clock for a mile and a sixteenth in 1:42.95 seconds.

Den's Legacy stayed on mildly to edge He's Had Enough for second by a half-length, with Little Jerry another 5 1/2 lengths back in fourth.

The winner is trained by Bob Baffert and owned by Gary and Mary West. He is a son of Tapit out of Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greeley.

-Keelerman

Tiz the Truth breaks maiden under Gary Stevens

Tiz the Truth gave jockey Gary Stevens a possible mount for the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) when the fine colt dominated a one-mile maiden special weight at Santa Anita by a spectacular 7 3/4 lengths, giving the impression that a graded stakes victory may be in the near future.

Trained by Bob Baffert, Tiz the Truth was entering the race off of a head defeat to the highly-regarded Demonic in a maiden sprint on January 13th. As a result of this performance, Tiz the Truth was sent off as the 1-2 favorite in today's race.

He definitely ran to his odds.

After getting off to a very quick start, Tiz the Truth went straight to the lead and was in front by two lengths following an opening quarter mile in :24.30. With Spirited Touch, Misdeed, Colburn, and Irish Surf tracking him throughout, Tiz the Truth continued to lead through moderate fractions of :48.39 and 1:12.80.

Then -- in the blink of an eye -- Tiz the Truth was five lengths in front.

Under a hand ride from Stevens, Tiz the Truth blazed the seventh furlong in a practically unheard of :11.61 seconds, giving him a five-length advantage with just an eighth of a mile to go. For an encore, he ran the final furlong in an equally jaw-dropping :11.87 seconds to hit the wire in 1:36.28, a very sharp time indeed given the moderate early pace!

Misdeed edged Spirited Touch for second, while Colburn and Irish Surf completed the order of finish.

Tiz the Truth is owned by Mercedes Stables and is a son of Tiznow out of the French Deputy mare Truly Blessed.

-Keelerman