On November 5th, 2011, a colt by Dixie Union out of the Gone West mare Tempo rallied strongly in the Churchill Downs homestretch to finish second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), beaten just a head despite racing wide every step of the way. This performance, coupled with his dominating victories in the Champagne Stakes (gr. II) and Saratoga Special Stakes (gr. II) earlier in the year, made him the heavy favorite for 2012 Kentucky Derby. In fact, there were some that believed the massive bay colt had the necassary talent to become racing's twelfth Triple Crown winner; the first since Affirmed in 1978.
Showing posts with label Went the Day Well. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Went the Day Well. Show all posts
Friday, June 15, 2012
Saturday, May 19, 2012
I'LL HAVE ANOTHER WINS THE PREAKNESS STAKES!
Let the Triple Crown talk begin!
I'll Have Another, winner of the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) two weeks ago, successfully claimed the second leg of racing's elusive Triple Crown when he wore down Bodemeister in deep stretch to win the $1,000,000 Preakness Stakes (gr. I) by a neck.
Under a brilliant ride from Mario Gutierrez, I'll Have Another got off to an excellent start in the 1 3/16th miles race before settling into the fourth position early on, a couple of lengths behind pace-setting Bodemeister. Creative Cause was a length behind in second, followed by Pretension down along the rail. Went the Day Well was close to the pace in fifth, followed by Teeth of the Dog, Tiger Walk, Cozzetti, Zetterholm, Optimizer, and Daddy Nose Best.
Through moderate fractions of :23.79 and :47.68, Bodemeister continued to show the way. Coming off of a runner-up effort in the Kentucky Derby, in which he had set a blazing pace of :22.32 and :45.39, Bodemeister's chances of winning the Preakness appeared to be going much better than in Louisville.
Rounding the far turn, Creative Cause made his bid for the lead, but was quickly turned back as Bodemeister burst clear of the field to open up a 2 1/2 length lead. He seemed to have plenty left in the tank, and it was looking as though he would accomplish what he had failed to do in the Derby.
But on the far outside, a brilliant chestnut colt was beginning a rally that would not be denied. With Gutierrez urging his colt on as hard as he could, I'll Have Another surged into contention on the far outside and began to cut into Bodemeister's lead. The front-runner was game, and even passing the sixteenth pole, it appeared as though he would avenge his Derby loss. But I'll Have Another proved simply too good, getting up in deep stretch to win by a neck while stopping the clock in 1:55.94.
Creative Cause finished third, nine lengths further back. Zetterholm and Teeth of the Dog rounded out the top five, while Optimizer, Cozzetti, Tiger Walk, Daddy Nose Best, Went the Day Well, and Pretension trailed the field.
The winner is owned by Reddam Racing and trained by Doug O'Neill. The colt has now won all four of his races this year, which aside from the Derby and Preakness includes the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) and Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II).
-Keelerman
I'll Have Another, winner of the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) two weeks ago, successfully claimed the second leg of racing's elusive Triple Crown when he wore down Bodemeister in deep stretch to win the $1,000,000 Preakness Stakes (gr. I) by a neck.
Under a brilliant ride from Mario Gutierrez, I'll Have Another got off to an excellent start in the 1 3/16th miles race before settling into the fourth position early on, a couple of lengths behind pace-setting Bodemeister. Creative Cause was a length behind in second, followed by Pretension down along the rail. Went the Day Well was close to the pace in fifth, followed by Teeth of the Dog, Tiger Walk, Cozzetti, Zetterholm, Optimizer, and Daddy Nose Best.
Through moderate fractions of :23.79 and :47.68, Bodemeister continued to show the way. Coming off of a runner-up effort in the Kentucky Derby, in which he had set a blazing pace of :22.32 and :45.39, Bodemeister's chances of winning the Preakness appeared to be going much better than in Louisville.
Rounding the far turn, Creative Cause made his bid for the lead, but was quickly turned back as Bodemeister burst clear of the field to open up a 2 1/2 length lead. He seemed to have plenty left in the tank, and it was looking as though he would accomplish what he had failed to do in the Derby.
But on the far outside, a brilliant chestnut colt was beginning a rally that would not be denied. With Gutierrez urging his colt on as hard as he could, I'll Have Another surged into contention on the far outside and began to cut into Bodemeister's lead. The front-runner was game, and even passing the sixteenth pole, it appeared as though he would avenge his Derby loss. But I'll Have Another proved simply too good, getting up in deep stretch to win by a neck while stopping the clock in 1:55.94.
Creative Cause finished third, nine lengths further back. Zetterholm and Teeth of the Dog rounded out the top five, while Optimizer, Cozzetti, Tiger Walk, Daddy Nose Best, Went the Day Well, and Pretension trailed the field.
The winner is owned by Reddam Racing and trained by Doug O'Neill. The colt has now won all four of his races this year, which aside from the Derby and Preakness includes the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) and Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II).
-Keelerman
2012 Preakness Update #7
With just sixteen minutes remaining before post time, Bodemeister is still the favorite at 2-1 and I'll Have Another remains at 3-1, but a little bit of money has gone on Creative Cause and he is now the co-third choice with Went the Day Well at 5-1. Daddy Nose Best has also received a great deal of support and is currently 9-1. The longshots are Cozzetti and Pretension at 24-1 and 25-1, respectively.
-Keelerman
-Keelerman
2012 Preakness Update #6
So -- having watched all of the five main track undercard races at Pimlico today, I have come to the conclusion that there isn't really any track bias. Speed horses have won, closers have won -- it seems you can come from just about anywhere with success. If there is any bias at all, it is an outside bias, but there doesn't appear to be anything serious.
The Preakness odds really aren't changing much at all, with Bodemeister still the favorite at 5-2 and I'll Have Another at 3-1. I'm starting to really like Creative Cause's chances here today, for the pace scenario should suit his running style and if there is an outside bias, he should be able to take advantage of it. Will I pick him to win? I haven't quite decided yet.
Of all the horses in the race, I think that Cozzetti offers the most value at 23-1. He has been training so well that it's not impossible that he could shock everyone and pull off a surprising upset.
Went the Day Well is receiving a bit more support than I figured he would, for he is currently the third choice at 9-2. I figured he would be closer to 6-1, but I guess a lot of people feel he could have won the Derby with a better trip; thus the betting support.
-Keelerman
The Preakness odds really aren't changing much at all, with Bodemeister still the favorite at 5-2 and I'll Have Another at 3-1. I'm starting to really like Creative Cause's chances here today, for the pace scenario should suit his running style and if there is an outside bias, he should be able to take advantage of it. Will I pick him to win? I haven't quite decided yet.
Of all the horses in the race, I think that Cozzetti offers the most value at 23-1. He has been training so well that it's not impossible that he could shock everyone and pull off a surprising upset.
Went the Day Well is receiving a bit more support than I figured he would, for he is currently the third choice at 9-2. I figured he would be closer to 6-1, but I guess a lot of people feel he could have won the Derby with a better trip; thus the betting support.
-Keelerman
2012 PREAKNESS STAKES ANALYSIS AND SELECTIONS
Two weeks ago, we watched with bated breath as I'll Have Another closed furiously down the center of the racetrack to defeat an ultra-game Bodemeister in the 138th running of the Kentucky Derby. This afternoon, these two horses face off again at Pimlico in teh 137th running of the Preakness Stakes (gr. I), the second leg of the coveted Triple Crown. Will I'll Have Another triumph again, and thus head to Belmont Park with a shot at becoming racing's twelfth Triple Crown winner? Will Bodemeister hang on for victory? Or will one of the other nine contenders step up and pull off a shocking upset? Let's start handicapping!
Preakness Stakes (gr. I)
1 3/16th miles on the main track
Entries:
As I did for the Derby, I shall break the eleven starters down into three catagories -- "Unlikely Contenders", "Medium Contenders", and "Win Contenders".
Unlikely Contenders
#3 PRETENSION - He is the only colt in this race with a win -- or even a start -- over the Pimlico strip, and for that I must give him some credit. But when pitted against somer of the better three-year-olds in the country, he finished fifth in the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) and ninth in the Illinois Derby (gr. III). He's got a fair amount of early speed, so it wouldn't be surprising to see him try and press the pace from gate three, but I doubt that he has the speed to really challenge Bodemeister early.
#2 TEETH OF THE DOG - I'm having a hard time putting this colt in the "Unlikely Contenders" catagory, seeing that he did finish a strong third in the Wood Memorial (gr. I) last time out. But his trainer has stated that he considers this race as more of a prep for the upcoming Belmont Stakes (gr. I), which makes me suspect that this colt isn't fully cranked for this spot. In addition, I won't be surprised if this colt tries to challenge Bodemeister early, which could prove disastrous, as Trinniberg and Hansen discovered in the Derby.
#8 DADDY NOSE BEST - This colt didn't really have any excuses in the Kentucky Derby, for he was able to secure a near perfect position early before failing to fire whatsoever, winding up tenth. His two previous victories were impressive enough, but I do believe that this colt is best on synthetic or turf surfaces, and the 1 3/16th miles distance of this race is probably a tad bit too long for him. Julien Leparoux returns to the saddle, which is a good sign, but overall I have mixed feelings about this colt.
#10 OPTIMIZER - From time to time, this colt steps up and runs really well -- you don't finish second in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) and third in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) if you don't have talent. But he is fairly inconsistent, and he has been beaten a combined 32 1/2 lengths in his last two starts. Perhaps his performance in the Derby was a bit better than it looked on the surface, and he has drawn a good post position for his preferred style of running, but it's difficult to see him stepping up enough to challenge for a superfecta spot in a race of this caliber.
Medium Contenders
#1 TIGER WALK - I have watched this colt all year, and despite his less-than-stellar finishes, there's something about him that makes me think he has hidden talent that he just hasn't displayed yet. I liked his bullet half-mile breeze on the 13th, and feel he could improve with the addition of blinkers. Gate one is obviously a question, but it's better than the outside post positions that he usually draws.
#4 ZETTERHOLM - He's got a pretty strong late kick that he has used successfully in three straight New York-bred races, including the Patsyprospect Stakes, and the possibility of a moderately fast pace today could help his chances. He doesn't have the strongest of pedigrees for the distance, being by Silver Train, but trainer Rick Dutrow has done well in the Preakness, and finished fourth in this race two years ago with another New York-bred Yawanna Twist.
#5 WENT THE DAY WELL - I was very impressed by his performance in the Derby, where he closed from far behind despite a poor trip to be beaten just 2 1/2 lengths. He has been improving with every start, and has trained well since the Derby, so there's not many reasons to think he won't run well. My only concern is that his late run in the Derby might have been more of an optical illusion formed by the tiring front-runners turning in such slow final fractions. This scenario tends to occur with frequency in the Derby -- remember Ice Box in 2010? Granted, Went the Day Well looked phenomenal in the Churchill homestretch, but he won't get the same pace setup today. Perhaps he is versatile enough to overcome it, and I will give him a great deal of credit if he is, but for the moment I'm leaning toward picking others.
#11 COZZETTI - This colt is perhaps just a bit underrated. He did run well enough during the spring to finish third in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) and fourth in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I), beaten little more than a neck for second in the latter race. Trainer Dale Romans is confident that the colt has more talent then he has displayed, and his :58 4/5 bullet work on May 14th signals that this colt may be sitting on a huge effort. Don't leave him out of your superfectas!
Win Contenders
#6 CREATIVE CAUSE - I have liked this colt a great deal since last year, and he was my #1 pick for the Derby for majority of the spring. I eventually jumped off the bandwagon for the Derby, mostly because I wasn't impressed with the way he was training. He actually didn't run badly at all in the Derby, winding up fifth beaten three lengths after going extremely wide on the far turn. He certainly won't have to go that wide today, and seeing that he has also been training well, and that the pace scenario of this race should be better suited to his running style, I won't be surprised if he adds a classic victory to his record.
#7 BODEMEISTER - What to do with Bodemeister? If he runs back to his Derby effort, then it's going to be difficult or impossible to beat him. With Trinniberg and Hansen out of the picture, chances are he will get to set a much slower pace, leaving him with more in the tank for the stretch run. The only concern here is that he may not handle the quick two-week turnaround, given that the Preakness will actually be his third race in five weeks. I'm sure Baffert wouldn't be running him here if he didn't think the colt was ready, but Bodemeister was primed for the race of his life leading up to the Derby and ran his eyeballs out. If he is the superstar that I believe he could be, then he won't have any issues with the two weeks and will add a Preakness victory to his record. If, however, he is just another very talented three-year-old, then he'll probably throw in the towel somewhere at the top of the stretch. I guess whether or not you pick him depends on how good a horse you believe he is.
#9 I'LL HAVE ANOTHER - There's nothing not to like about the Derby winner, who looked terrific in Louisville and seems to be training even better since coming to Pimlico. I like the fact that here are Pimlico for nearly two weeks, getting in valuable training over a track that some horses can have trouble handling. Chances are, he will have to challenge Bodemeister for the early lead to keep his rival from escaping with too slow an early pace, but he has the tactical speed to do that and the perfect post position to let him do the job right. Jockey Mario Gutierrez is going to have to ride him just ride -- applying just enough pressure to Bodemeister to tire him out, while not going so fast that he sets the race up for a closer like Creative Cause or Went the Day Well.
***
So who should I pick? My gut feeling is that Bodemeister isn't going to run as well here as he did in the Derby, where he had a speed-favoring, fast track to help his chances. Pimlico, while also a fairly speed-favoring track, didn't seem to have any bias yesterday, and probably won't today either.
So who does that leave us with? Well, if Bodemeister retreats on the far turn, or even at the top of the stretch, that would allow I'll Have Another to inherit the lead, and from that point on, I doubt anyone can catch him. But if Bodemeister hangs on longer than I expect him to -- say, he digs deep and doesn't let I'll Have Another past him until inside the eighth pole -- then I won't be surprised to see Creative Cause grinding away in the center of the racetrack to pull off a minor upset.
That said, here are my tentative selections:
1 I'll Have Another
2 Creative Cause
3 Bodemeister
4 Cozzetti
These selections assume that the track is playing the same way that it did yesterday -- somewhat tiring, without an obvious speed bias. These selections also assume that Bodemeister is going to tire somewhere in the vicinity of the top of the stretch. Should I notice any track conditions that change my opinion of how the race will be run -- or if I simply change my mind -- I will post my updated picks sometime before the race.
Now, here are J.R.'s selections:
1 Went the Day Well
2 I'll Have Another
3 Bodemeister
4 Zetterholm
J.R. believes that Went the Day Well is going to race much closer to the early pace today and finish up with a burst of speed to deny I'll Have Another and Bodemeister the victory, with Zetterholm rallying mildly to round out the superfecta.
Now, as has become a Triple Crown tradition, my hat has compiled its selections. Who knows which horses it will select today, but let me just say this: Line of David, Watch Me Go, and Went the Day Well have been it's last three Derby selections. :)
From the bottom up:
11 Pretension
Nothing too unusual about this selection.
10 Zetterholm
I like him better then this, but I can see why someone might pick him to finish tenth.
9 I'll Have Another
Okay. This is ridiculous.
8 Optimizer
Nothing special about this selection.
7 Cozzetti
Seventh wouldn't surprise anyone.
6 Daddy Nose Best
I guess the hat feels he'll rebound off of his poor Derby performance.
5 Bodemeister
Fifth? Perhaps I don't really like this colt to win, but this is a little bit unreasonable.
4 Went the Day Well
Nothing unusual here.
3 Tiger Walk
Okay. I like Tiger Walk as well as anyone else. But third? Ahead of Bodemeister, Went the Day Well, and I'll Have Another?
2 Teeth of the Dog
If Teeth of the Dog runs second in what is more of a prep for the Belmont, than he is virtually a lock to win the final leg of the Triple Crown. Clearly, the hat feels that is about to happen.
1 Creative Cause
Hey! For once, the hat has picked a low-odds horse for the top spot! Of course, it couldn't help but throw some longshots into the superfecta, but the hat actually has a decent chance at out-picking me for once!
UNDERCARD ANALYSIS
Race 3: Gallorette Handicap (gr. III)
1 1/16th miles on the turf course
The obvious favorite in this graded turf race for fillies and mares is Zagora, winner of the Diana Handicap (gr. I) last year. She began 2012 with a pair of graded stakes victories at Tampa Bay Downs, then finished fifth as the favorite in Keeneland's Jenny Wiley Stakes (gr. I) while attempting to rally into a very slow pace. Given that there does seem to be more early speed in today's race, she should have every chance to rally to another victory.
If Zagora is to be upset, then I believe that Laughing will be the one to do it. The lightly-raced favorite finished a decent seventh in last year's E. P. Taylor Stakes (gr. I) at Woodbine, then returned this year to win an allowance optional claiming event in terrific fashion at Aqueduct. She'll have to be sharp to defeat Zagora, but with her tactical speed and incredible late kick, I won't be surprised at all if she pulls off an upset.
Race 8: Maryland Sprint Handicap (gr. III)
6 furlongs on the main track
This evenly-matched race has drawn a large field of ten, so good look finding the winner! Any one of at least five or six of these runners has an excellent shot at winning, so if you happen to stumble on to the winner, it's probably more due to luck than anything else! :)
Hamazing Destiny is the narrow morning line favorite, based perhaps on his strong second in the 2010 Breeders' Cup Sprint (gr. I) and subsequent admirable efforts, but the fact is he hasn't won since September 2010 and hasn't been in the best of form lately.
Personally, I like Immortal Eyes, who ran second in this race last year. He is seven, and his best distance is probably 4-1/2 furlongs, but he has won six-furlong races in the past and possesses a great deal of early speed.
You might also want to take a look at Bandbox, a young sprinter whose best performances have come at seven furlongs. This race could be a bit short for him, and he hasn't raced since January, but he may appreciate the cutback and could get up for a piece.
Race 10: Allaire DuPont Distaff Stakes (gr. III)
1 1/16th miles on the main track
There are a number of quality fillies in this race, but to me, it's hard to look past Bob Baffert's Awesomemundo. The promising filly won an allowance race on February 19th at Santa Anita by 7 1/2 lengths, stopping the clock in the sharp time of 1:41.98. She hasn't raced since then, but Baffert feels she simply needs lots of time between starts. If she can repeat her allowance victory today, she will be tough to beat.
Another very logical contender is Absinthe Minded, a talented and consistent runner from the barn of D. Wayne Lukas. There's no denying that she has talent, for she has run second and third in the last two runnings of Oaklawn's Apple Blossom Handicap (gr. I), but the fact is, she is 5-for-11 at Oaklawn and 1-for-20 elsewhere. I won't be surprised at all if she wins, but she seems to be better at Oaklawn than anywhere else.
For a longshot, you should take a look at Pinch Pie, who is 10-1 on the morning line. While the majority of her starts have come on turf, her dirt efforts include a third-place finish in last year's Alabama Stakes (gr. I) beyond champion Royal Delta and It's Tricky. Expect to see her rallying strongly from off the pace.
Race 11: Dixie Stakes (gr. II)
Nine furlongs on the turf course
This is a tough race to analyzie, as usual, for it has drawn a large and evenly-matched field of runners. Smart Bid is the morning line favorite based off of his fine victory in the Fair Grounds Handicap (gr. III) two starts back, but is coming off of a seventh-place finish in the Mervin H. Muniz Jr. Memorial Handicap (gr. II). Air Support will also receive some support thanks to his victory in the Virginia Derby (gr. II) last July, but he has only raced once since then, finishing a somewhat dull fifth in a nine-furlong turf allowance race at Keeneland. Hudson Steele has a win over this track, and is making his second start off a layoff, but he'll have to turn in a career-best effort to win this race. Casino Host is in fine form, having won the above-mentioned Mervin H. Muniz Handicap last time out, and it would surprise no one if he triumphs.
This race is so evenly matched that I wouldn't be surprised if a major upset were to occur. Perhaps Trend, Humble and Hungry, or Boxeur des Rues could win? The first-mentioned colt is coming off of a pair of strong efforts in one-mile turf races at Gulfstream, and could possibly get the jump on his rivals.
Personally, I'm leaning toward selecting Hudson Steele or Trend, but I can certainly see any one of these horses winning. It should be a great race to watch.
Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
Preakness Stakes (gr. I)
1 3/16th miles on the main track
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | M. L. Odds |
| 1 | Tiger Walk | Ignacio Cortreas, IV | Kent Desormeaux | 30-1 |
| 2 | Teeth of the Dog | Michael Matz | Joe Bravo | 15-1 |
| 3 | Pretension | Chris Grove | Javier Santiago | 30-1 |
| 4 | Zetterholm | Rick Dutrow, Jr. | Junior Alvarado | 20-1 |
| 5 | Went the Day Well | Graham Motion | John Velazquez | 6-1 |
| 6 | Creative Cause | Mike Harrington | Joel Rosario | 6-1 |
| 7 | Bodemeister | Bob Baffert | Mike Smith | 8-5 |
| 8 | Daddy Nose Best | Steve Asmussen | Julien Leparoux | 12-1 |
| 9 | I'll Have Another | Doug O'Neill | Mario Gutierrez | 5-2 |
| 10 | Optimizer | D. Wayne Lukas | Corey Nakatani | 30-1 |
| 11 | Cozzetti | Dale Romans | Jose Lezcano | 30-1 |
As I did for the Derby, I shall break the eleven starters down into three catagories -- "Unlikely Contenders", "Medium Contenders", and "Win Contenders".
Unlikely Contenders
#3 PRETENSION - He is the only colt in this race with a win -- or even a start -- over the Pimlico strip, and for that I must give him some credit. But when pitted against somer of the better three-year-olds in the country, he finished fifth in the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) and ninth in the Illinois Derby (gr. III). He's got a fair amount of early speed, so it wouldn't be surprising to see him try and press the pace from gate three, but I doubt that he has the speed to really challenge Bodemeister early.
#2 TEETH OF THE DOG - I'm having a hard time putting this colt in the "Unlikely Contenders" catagory, seeing that he did finish a strong third in the Wood Memorial (gr. I) last time out. But his trainer has stated that he considers this race as more of a prep for the upcoming Belmont Stakes (gr. I), which makes me suspect that this colt isn't fully cranked for this spot. In addition, I won't be surprised if this colt tries to challenge Bodemeister early, which could prove disastrous, as Trinniberg and Hansen discovered in the Derby.
#8 DADDY NOSE BEST - This colt didn't really have any excuses in the Kentucky Derby, for he was able to secure a near perfect position early before failing to fire whatsoever, winding up tenth. His two previous victories were impressive enough, but I do believe that this colt is best on synthetic or turf surfaces, and the 1 3/16th miles distance of this race is probably a tad bit too long for him. Julien Leparoux returns to the saddle, which is a good sign, but overall I have mixed feelings about this colt.
#10 OPTIMIZER - From time to time, this colt steps up and runs really well -- you don't finish second in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) and third in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) if you don't have talent. But he is fairly inconsistent, and he has been beaten a combined 32 1/2 lengths in his last two starts. Perhaps his performance in the Derby was a bit better than it looked on the surface, and he has drawn a good post position for his preferred style of running, but it's difficult to see him stepping up enough to challenge for a superfecta spot in a race of this caliber.
Medium Contenders
#1 TIGER WALK - I have watched this colt all year, and despite his less-than-stellar finishes, there's something about him that makes me think he has hidden talent that he just hasn't displayed yet. I liked his bullet half-mile breeze on the 13th, and feel he could improve with the addition of blinkers. Gate one is obviously a question, but it's better than the outside post positions that he usually draws.
#4 ZETTERHOLM - He's got a pretty strong late kick that he has used successfully in three straight New York-bred races, including the Patsyprospect Stakes, and the possibility of a moderately fast pace today could help his chances. He doesn't have the strongest of pedigrees for the distance, being by Silver Train, but trainer Rick Dutrow has done well in the Preakness, and finished fourth in this race two years ago with another New York-bred Yawanna Twist.
#5 WENT THE DAY WELL - I was very impressed by his performance in the Derby, where he closed from far behind despite a poor trip to be beaten just 2 1/2 lengths. He has been improving with every start, and has trained well since the Derby, so there's not many reasons to think he won't run well. My only concern is that his late run in the Derby might have been more of an optical illusion formed by the tiring front-runners turning in such slow final fractions. This scenario tends to occur with frequency in the Derby -- remember Ice Box in 2010? Granted, Went the Day Well looked phenomenal in the Churchill homestretch, but he won't get the same pace setup today. Perhaps he is versatile enough to overcome it, and I will give him a great deal of credit if he is, but for the moment I'm leaning toward picking others.
#11 COZZETTI - This colt is perhaps just a bit underrated. He did run well enough during the spring to finish third in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) and fourth in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I), beaten little more than a neck for second in the latter race. Trainer Dale Romans is confident that the colt has more talent then he has displayed, and his :58 4/5 bullet work on May 14th signals that this colt may be sitting on a huge effort. Don't leave him out of your superfectas!
Win Contenders
#6 CREATIVE CAUSE - I have liked this colt a great deal since last year, and he was my #1 pick for the Derby for majority of the spring. I eventually jumped off the bandwagon for the Derby, mostly because I wasn't impressed with the way he was training. He actually didn't run badly at all in the Derby, winding up fifth beaten three lengths after going extremely wide on the far turn. He certainly won't have to go that wide today, and seeing that he has also been training well, and that the pace scenario of this race should be better suited to his running style, I won't be surprised if he adds a classic victory to his record.
#7 BODEMEISTER - What to do with Bodemeister? If he runs back to his Derby effort, then it's going to be difficult or impossible to beat him. With Trinniberg and Hansen out of the picture, chances are he will get to set a much slower pace, leaving him with more in the tank for the stretch run. The only concern here is that he may not handle the quick two-week turnaround, given that the Preakness will actually be his third race in five weeks. I'm sure Baffert wouldn't be running him here if he didn't think the colt was ready, but Bodemeister was primed for the race of his life leading up to the Derby and ran his eyeballs out. If he is the superstar that I believe he could be, then he won't have any issues with the two weeks and will add a Preakness victory to his record. If, however, he is just another very talented three-year-old, then he'll probably throw in the towel somewhere at the top of the stretch. I guess whether or not you pick him depends on how good a horse you believe he is.
#9 I'LL HAVE ANOTHER - There's nothing not to like about the Derby winner, who looked terrific in Louisville and seems to be training even better since coming to Pimlico. I like the fact that here are Pimlico for nearly two weeks, getting in valuable training over a track that some horses can have trouble handling. Chances are, he will have to challenge Bodemeister for the early lead to keep his rival from escaping with too slow an early pace, but he has the tactical speed to do that and the perfect post position to let him do the job right. Jockey Mario Gutierrez is going to have to ride him just ride -- applying just enough pressure to Bodemeister to tire him out, while not going so fast that he sets the race up for a closer like Creative Cause or Went the Day Well.
***
So who should I pick? My gut feeling is that Bodemeister isn't going to run as well here as he did in the Derby, where he had a speed-favoring, fast track to help his chances. Pimlico, while also a fairly speed-favoring track, didn't seem to have any bias yesterday, and probably won't today either.
So who does that leave us with? Well, if Bodemeister retreats on the far turn, or even at the top of the stretch, that would allow I'll Have Another to inherit the lead, and from that point on, I doubt anyone can catch him. But if Bodemeister hangs on longer than I expect him to -- say, he digs deep and doesn't let I'll Have Another past him until inside the eighth pole -- then I won't be surprised to see Creative Cause grinding away in the center of the racetrack to pull off a minor upset.
That said, here are my tentative selections:
1 I'll Have Another
2 Creative Cause
3 Bodemeister
4 Cozzetti
These selections assume that the track is playing the same way that it did yesterday -- somewhat tiring, without an obvious speed bias. These selections also assume that Bodemeister is going to tire somewhere in the vicinity of the top of the stretch. Should I notice any track conditions that change my opinion of how the race will be run -- or if I simply change my mind -- I will post my updated picks sometime before the race.
Now, here are J.R.'s selections:
1 Went the Day Well
2 I'll Have Another
3 Bodemeister
4 Zetterholm
J.R. believes that Went the Day Well is going to race much closer to the early pace today and finish up with a burst of speed to deny I'll Have Another and Bodemeister the victory, with Zetterholm rallying mildly to round out the superfecta.
Now, as has become a Triple Crown tradition, my hat has compiled its selections. Who knows which horses it will select today, but let me just say this: Line of David, Watch Me Go, and Went the Day Well have been it's last three Derby selections. :)
From the bottom up:
11 Pretension
Nothing too unusual about this selection.
10 Zetterholm
I like him better then this, but I can see why someone might pick him to finish tenth.
9 I'll Have Another
Okay. This is ridiculous.
8 Optimizer
Nothing special about this selection.
7 Cozzetti
Seventh wouldn't surprise anyone.
6 Daddy Nose Best
I guess the hat feels he'll rebound off of his poor Derby performance.
5 Bodemeister
Fifth? Perhaps I don't really like this colt to win, but this is a little bit unreasonable.
4 Went the Day Well
Nothing unusual here.
3 Tiger Walk
Okay. I like Tiger Walk as well as anyone else. But third? Ahead of Bodemeister, Went the Day Well, and I'll Have Another?
2 Teeth of the Dog
If Teeth of the Dog runs second in what is more of a prep for the Belmont, than he is virtually a lock to win the final leg of the Triple Crown. Clearly, the hat feels that is about to happen.
1 Creative Cause
Hey! For once, the hat has picked a low-odds horse for the top spot! Of course, it couldn't help but throw some longshots into the superfecta, but the hat actually has a decent chance at out-picking me for once!
UNDERCARD ANALYSIS
Race 3: Gallorette Handicap (gr. III)
1 1/16th miles on the turf course
The obvious favorite in this graded turf race for fillies and mares is Zagora, winner of the Diana Handicap (gr. I) last year. She began 2012 with a pair of graded stakes victories at Tampa Bay Downs, then finished fifth as the favorite in Keeneland's Jenny Wiley Stakes (gr. I) while attempting to rally into a very slow pace. Given that there does seem to be more early speed in today's race, she should have every chance to rally to another victory.
If Zagora is to be upset, then I believe that Laughing will be the one to do it. The lightly-raced favorite finished a decent seventh in last year's E. P. Taylor Stakes (gr. I) at Woodbine, then returned this year to win an allowance optional claiming event in terrific fashion at Aqueduct. She'll have to be sharp to defeat Zagora, but with her tactical speed and incredible late kick, I won't be surprised at all if she pulls off an upset.
Race 8: Maryland Sprint Handicap (gr. III)
6 furlongs on the main track
This evenly-matched race has drawn a large field of ten, so good look finding the winner! Any one of at least five or six of these runners has an excellent shot at winning, so if you happen to stumble on to the winner, it's probably more due to luck than anything else! :)
Hamazing Destiny is the narrow morning line favorite, based perhaps on his strong second in the 2010 Breeders' Cup Sprint (gr. I) and subsequent admirable efforts, but the fact is he hasn't won since September 2010 and hasn't been in the best of form lately.
Personally, I like Immortal Eyes, who ran second in this race last year. He is seven, and his best distance is probably 4-1/2 furlongs, but he has won six-furlong races in the past and possesses a great deal of early speed.
You might also want to take a look at Bandbox, a young sprinter whose best performances have come at seven furlongs. This race could be a bit short for him, and he hasn't raced since January, but he may appreciate the cutback and could get up for a piece.
Race 10: Allaire DuPont Distaff Stakes (gr. III)
1 1/16th miles on the main track
There are a number of quality fillies in this race, but to me, it's hard to look past Bob Baffert's Awesomemundo. The promising filly won an allowance race on February 19th at Santa Anita by 7 1/2 lengths, stopping the clock in the sharp time of 1:41.98. She hasn't raced since then, but Baffert feels she simply needs lots of time between starts. If she can repeat her allowance victory today, she will be tough to beat.
Another very logical contender is Absinthe Minded, a talented and consistent runner from the barn of D. Wayne Lukas. There's no denying that she has talent, for she has run second and third in the last two runnings of Oaklawn's Apple Blossom Handicap (gr. I), but the fact is, she is 5-for-11 at Oaklawn and 1-for-20 elsewhere. I won't be surprised at all if she wins, but she seems to be better at Oaklawn than anywhere else.
For a longshot, you should take a look at Pinch Pie, who is 10-1 on the morning line. While the majority of her starts have come on turf, her dirt efforts include a third-place finish in last year's Alabama Stakes (gr. I) beyond champion Royal Delta and It's Tricky. Expect to see her rallying strongly from off the pace.
Race 11: Dixie Stakes (gr. II)
Nine furlongs on the turf course
This is a tough race to analyzie, as usual, for it has drawn a large and evenly-matched field of runners. Smart Bid is the morning line favorite based off of his fine victory in the Fair Grounds Handicap (gr. III) two starts back, but is coming off of a seventh-place finish in the Mervin H. Muniz Jr. Memorial Handicap (gr. II). Air Support will also receive some support thanks to his victory in the Virginia Derby (gr. II) last July, but he has only raced once since then, finishing a somewhat dull fifth in a nine-furlong turf allowance race at Keeneland. Hudson Steele has a win over this track, and is making his second start off a layoff, but he'll have to turn in a career-best effort to win this race. Casino Host is in fine form, having won the above-mentioned Mervin H. Muniz Handicap last time out, and it would surprise no one if he triumphs.
This race is so evenly matched that I wouldn't be surprised if a major upset were to occur. Perhaps Trend, Humble and Hungry, or Boxeur des Rues could win? The first-mentioned colt is coming off of a pair of strong efforts in one-mile turf races at Gulfstream, and could possibly get the jump on his rivals.
Personally, I'm leaning toward selecting Hudson Steele or Trend, but I can certainly see any one of these horses winning. It should be a great race to watch.
Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
Wednesday, May 16, 2012
2012 Preakness Stakes Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the $1,000,000 Preakness Stakes (gr. I), to be run on Saturday at Pimlico race course. The 1 3/16th miles event has drawn a moderately-sized field of eleven, led by Kentucky Derby (gr. I) winner I'll Have Another and the runner-up from that race, Bodemeister.
-Keelerman
| PP | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | M. L. Odds |
| 1 | Tiger Walk | Ignacio Cortreas, IV | Kent Desormeaux | 30-1 |
| 2 | Teeth of the Dog | Michael Matz | Joe Bravo | 15-1 |
| 3 | Pretension | Chris Grove | Javier Santiago | 30-1 |
| 4 | Zetterholm | Rick Dutrow, Jr. | Junior Alvarado | 20-1 |
| 5 | Went the Day Well | Graham Motion | John Velazquez | 6-1 |
| 6 | Creative Cause | Mike Harrington | Joel Rosario | 6-1 |
| 7 | Bodemeister | Bob Baffert | Mike Smith | 8-5 |
| 8 | Daddy Nose Best | Steve Asmussen | Julien Leparoux | 12-1 |
| 9 | I'll Have Another | Doug O'Neill | Mario Gutierrez | 5-2 |
| 10 | Optimizer | D. Wayne Lukas | Corey Nakatani | 30-1 |
| 11 | Cozzetti | Dale Romans | Jose Lezcano | 30-1 |
-Keelerman
Saturday, May 12, 2012
Preakness Contender Profile: WENT THE DAY WELL
Owner: Team Valor International and Mark Ford
Trainer: Graham Motion
Breeder: James Patrick Delaney
Expected Preakness Jockey: John Velazquez
RACE RECORD
Age 3
4th Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I)
1st Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III)
1st Maiden Special Weight
4th Maiden Special Weight
Age 2
2nd Maiden Weight for Age
2nd Maiden Weight for Age
PEDIGREE
LAST WORKOUT
April 28th: 5f in 1:01 at Churchill Downs
To read what I have written about Went the Day Well in the past, click here.
Trainer: Graham Motion
Breeder: James Patrick Delaney
Expected Preakness Jockey: John Velazquez
RACE RECORD
Age 3
4th Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I)
1st Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III)
1st Maiden Special Weight
4th Maiden Special Weight
Age 2
2nd Maiden Weight for Age
2nd Maiden Weight for Age
PEDIGREE
| Gone West | ||
| Proud Citizen | ||
| Drums of Freedom | ||
| Went the Day Well | ||
| Tiznow | ||
| Tiz Maie's Day | ||
| Sweet Roberta |
LAST WORKOUT
April 28th: 5f in 1:01 at Churchill Downs
To read what I have written about Went the Day Well in the past, click here.
Friday, May 11, 2012
2012 Kentucky Derby Recap
(My apologies for not getting this posted sooner! I have been very, very busy during the last week, and wanted to take the time to do a nice job. But better late than never, so here is my complete recap of the 2012 Kentucky Derby. Enjoy!)
***
On May 7th, 2005, a promising chestnut colt by the name of Flower Alley entered the starting gate at Churchill Downs for the 131st running of the Kentucky Derby. A slow start -- followed by one of the fastest paces in Derby history -- compromised the speedy colt's chances, and he wound up finishing a distant ninth behind longshot winner Giacomo.
Seven years later, a son of Flower Alley headed to Churchill Downs in an attempt to win the race his sire could not. Named I'll Have Another, the colt brought stronger credentials into the race than his father had. Whereas Flower Alley had won the Lane's End Stakes (gr. II) and finished second in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I), I'll Have Another was bringing a streak of consecutive victories in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) and Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) to Louisville.
But other than that, the similarities between the two were astonishing. Both were brilliant chestnut colts. Both had a great deal of natural speed, and with it, an inclination to be close to the early lead. And as it turned out, both father and son were forced to deal with some of the most brilliant displays of early speed ever witnessed in Kentucky Derby history.
Flower Alley had come to Churchill as a huge longshot, garnering almost no respect in the betting. As talented as he would eventually prove to be -- he won the Travers (gr. I) and Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. II) later in the year -- he never even got a chance to prove it at Churchill. The reason? A rabbit by the name of Spanish Chestnut was entered in an attempt to keep favored (and front-running) Bellamy Road from stealing the race on the front end.
As it turned out, Spanish Chestnut set one of the fastest paces in Derby history, ruining the chances of any colt within five or six lengths of his blinding pace. That included Flower Alley, whose speedy talents became more of a hindrance when he found himself only a couple of lengths behind the early leader.
And so of course, when I'll Have Another arrived at Churchill for the Derby, one couldn't help but wonder if a similar scenario would occur. I'll Have Another had been brilliantly handled by trainer Doug O'Neill of Lava Man fame. As a juvenile, he has shown promise when placing in a graded stakes race, but soon went to the sidelines with shin soreness. He returned at three to pull a shocking 43-1 upset in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, defeating such highly-regarded Derby contenders as Liaison, Rousing Sermon, Empire Way, and Sky Kingdom.
The next logical start would have been in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) one month later. But O'Neill instead decided to give his colt two months rest, instead awaiting the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I). During that time frame, he worked the colt long and fast. Six furlongs, seven furlongs, one mile -- there was no doubt that he would be fit for the Santa Anita Derby.
But many questioned the move at the time, including myself, wondering if it was the wisest of decisions. Perhaps the extra time would yield a the colt a Santa Anita Derby victory. But it would also mean that he would enter the Derby off of a mere one-month layoff. Given that he had won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) in such dominating fashion following a lengthy layoff, it would make sense that his connections would seek to avoid a "bounce" by giving him plenty of time before his next start. But if he ran big again in the Santa Anita Derby, would it not stand to reason that he would be setting himself up for a bounce in the Kentucky Derby?
All of these thoughts were surely considered by O'Neill. But after concluding that it was certainly the best of plans, he and the rest of the colt's connections continued on their way. Whether it deserved to be questioned or not, their theory of how to prep their colt for the Derby would prove to be sheer brilliance in the end.
Part A of the Derby plan had been completed with the victory in the Robert B. Lewis. Part B, a win in the Santa Anita Derby, also went smoothly. In that race, the colt settled kindly into the second position early on before finishing up strongly to defeat the highly regarded Creative Cause by a nose in the sharp time of 1:47.88.
On to Louisville.
The colt's training went smoothly leading up to the Run for the Roses. Two stiff six-furlong breezes at Hollywood Park were followed by a flight to Churchill Downs, where he would only gallop in the days leading up to the biggest race of his career. It was not the usual method of training a Derby winner. After all, the majority of trainers prefer to arrive at Churchill in time to work their colts once or twice over the Churchill main track, in an effort to familiarize their horses with the surface. But O'Neill clearly felt that I'll Have Another needed no such preparation.
And the lack of a workout at Churchill wasn't the only thing they would have to overcome. On the Wednesday before the Derby, I'll Have Another was assigned stall nineteen during the post position draw. And as everyone knew, no horse had ever won the Derby from stall nineteen.
Then there was his jockey. Named Mario Gutierrez, the young rider had begun his career in 2006, and had gotten off to a very promising start while riding at Hastings Park in Canada. Recently, he moved his tack to California in an attempt to make a name for himself on one of the toughest racing curcuits in the country. The plan was not going very well, but then his luck changed when he landed the mount on a huge longshot in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes -- a colt by the name of I'll Have Another.
Two brilliant rides later, Gutierrez had his first mount in the Kentucky Derby.
But there was one more obstacle to overcome, that being the presence of Bodemeister, Hansen, and Trinniberg in the Derby. A trio of ultra-talented front runners, it appeared very possible that a fast pace would be the result of their face-off.
Possibly a very fast pace.
Possibly as fast as Spanish Chestnut ran in 2005.
No one was questioning I'll Have Another's talent heading into the Derby. What they were questioning was his ability to overcome post nineteen, his speedy nature, and the presence of a trio of true front-runners. Then there was Gutierrez. Would he be able to guide I'll Have Another through these obstacles in his very first Derby ride?
The answer: Yes. Definitely.
At 6:31 EST on May 5th, 2012, the starting gates opened at Churchill Downs and twenty three-year-olds were sent on their way down the long Churchill Downs homestretch. Quickest into stride was the 4-1 favorite Bodemeister, who rocketed from the gate and emerged the leader in the early stages. Also in the early mix was Trinniberg, who settled into the second position on the outside while pressing the pace. Hansen was in behind them in third, followed closely by Gemologist and Daddy Long Legs.
I'll Have Another? He was being given an absolutely flawless ride by Gutierrez, who had tucked his mount into the sixth position early on, about four lengths from the front while racing with only one horse to his inside. To accomplish this task after breaking from post nineteen was simply incredible.
But would even a perfect ride enable I'll Have Another to win? Gutierrez had done everything in his power to get the colt into a good position early on, but there was nothing he could do about the pace. And it was fast.
Up front, neither Bodemeister or Trinniberg were about to concede the other the lead, and there speedy duel resulted in a blazing opening quarter mile of :22.32, the fifth-fastest opening quarter mile in Derby history. But they were just getting warmed up. A torrid second quarter in :23.07 seconds brought them to a half-mile in :45.39 -- the fifth-fastest half mile in Derby history.
Was the unthinkable happening? Would I'll Have Another, like his father before him, be done in by his own speedy nature? Would the months of preparation, big victories, anticipation, training, and dreams be rendered meaningless by a cruel twist of fate?
Never in his career had I'll Have Another successfully rated more than a couple of lengths off the early pace. Not that anyone really thought that he couldn't, but the facts showed that the one time he found himself farther off the pace than usual, he had failed to hit the board.
But in the Derby, it all changed. Under Gutierrez's careful ride, I'll Have Another was successfully rating eight lengths off the pace, the farthest he had ever been from the early lead. The :45.39 half mile would surely do in those setting it, and likely everyone within a few lengths of it as well. But not I'll Have Another.
From there, I'll Have Another and Gutierrez just had to stay in the clear and run like the wind.
Up front, Bodemeister and Trinniberg continued their destructive duel for the lead, running three-quarters of a mile in a scorching 1:09.80 -- the fourth-fastest three-quarters of a mile in Derby history. It appeared as though the 2012 Derby would end similarily to the 2005 version, with the front-runnings completely falling apart in the stretch while allowing the closers to rally for victory.
But during the next quarter of a mile, the almost unimaginable occurred. Bodemeister didn't stop.
All Derby logic states that when you run three-quarters of a mile in 1:09 and change, you tire. That's just the way it is. You can't run that fast going a mile and a quarter and still hang around for a piece of the purse.
But that is exactly what Bodemeister did. With another burst of speed, he turned back Trinniberg and Hansen to enter the homestretch with a three-length lead. The crowd roared, for the favorite was turning in the performance of a lifetime and appeared to be on his way to victory.
But just behind him, a brilliant chestnut colt was beginning a rally that would not be denied.
While Bodemeister was in the process of sprinting clear of the field, I'll Have Another and Gutierrez were splitting horses like seasoned pros. They surged past Gemologist. They surged past Take Charge Indy. They surged past Trinniberg and Hansen.
Now they were inside the eighth pole. Over 165,000 people cheered in unison, some for Bodemeister, some for I'll Have Another, some half-heartedly for the fading runners behind them.
200 yards to go. Bodemeister was still the leader. He had overcome an impossbly fast early pace, the late beginning to his racing career, and his own front-running nature to reach this point. He had accomplished what few before him had ever done, and what few in the future will ever match.
But in those final fleeting yards, the strain of all those burdens began to take their toll on Bodemeister. His stride shortened noticeably. Slowly at first, then quicker, his lead began to diminish, allowing a brilliant chestnut colt to drawer closer, then still closer.
100 yards to go. I'll Have Another summoned another desperate bid for the lead and surged up alongside Bodemeister. The roar of the crowd reached its crescendo. All eyes focused on the two leaders, who grappled alongside in a duel for the Derby. The longtime leader dug in tenaciously, and for a few brief moments appeared capable of turning back his rival and accomplishing the impossible.
But in those final yards, with the blood of Flower Alley flowing through his veins, I'll Have Another found a little something extra. The preparation, big victories, anticipation, training, and dreams all came together under the twin spires, sewn together by the brilliance of Gutierrez's ride. One final surge put him ahead of Bodemeister. A few more strides put him in the history books.
***
The complete order of finish was as follows:
1 I'll Have Another
2 Bodemeister
3 Dullahan
4 Went the Day Well
5 Creative Cause
6 Liaison
7 Union Rags
8 Rousing Sermon
9 Hansen
10 Daddy Nose Best
11 Optimizer
12 Alpha
13 El Padrino
14 Done Talking
15 Sabercat
16 Gemologist
17 Trinniberg
18 Prospective
19 Take Charge Indy
20 Daddy Long Legs
My selections performed only so-so. On my official "Kentucky Derby Selections" post, I listed Take Charge Indy as my top choice. However, as post time for the Derby approached, I took note of the seemingly speed-favoring nature of the track and switched to Bodemeister, as I mentioned in one of my Derby updates posted throughout the day. I ended up with the right horse, but while Bodemeister ran extremely well, he simply wasn't quite up to handling the eventual winner.
J.R. also liked Bodemeister, picking him to finish second, but his official top choice -- Daddy Nose Best -- failed to fire. On the other hand, he really like Went the Day Well, whereas I didn't particularly, and he felt good when the 30-1 shot rallied to finish a close fourth.
As for my hat, which made its yearly Derby selection, it selected Went the Day Well for the victory, so at least it did better than it has the last two years. It picked Bodemeister for third, Liaison for fourth, and Creative Cause for fifth, so it actually did fairly well with its top selections. But then again, it picked I'll Have Another to finish fifteenth . . . :)
***
Anyone who reads this blog with great frequency knows that I don't cheer much when watching races. Sometimes I might point out an instance of traffic to a fellow race-watcher, or utter the name of the leader to a fellow fan who happened to miss part of the race call. But cheering is just not something I do. Usually, I am too intent on watching every facet of the race to shout home my picks.
But occasionally, there comes a horse that simply stirs my emotions to the point where I forget about watching the race from a handicapper's point of view and simply start screaming out words of encouragement. Zenyatta was one of those horses. Awesome Gem is one of those horses.
And occasionally, a horse turns in a performance that astonishes me to the point where I just start cheering it home, regardless of who the horse is. It doesn't matter whether I picked the horse to win or not.
Last Saturday, I watched in awe as Bodemeister set those unbelievable early fractions and still kicked away from the field at the top of the stretch. Rounding the far turn, I will admit that the word "Superhorse" entered my mind. I felt like I was watching the legendary Black Stallion, or the great Dr. Fager. To watch a horse set fractions like those and enter the Churchill homestretch with a three-length advantage brought the cheers out of me.
But not without hesitation. At first, I uttered nothing more than a quiet "Come on, Bodemeister!" to myself, just a mere sentence of encouragement to a horse that appeared to be on his way to victory against all odds. But when I'll Have Another surged up alongside, I let loose a shout that only horses like Zenyatta can bring out of me:
"HANG ON, BODE!"
In the end, he didn't. He fell 1 1/2 lengths short. But for those few brief moments, I felt like I was watching the race of the decade. Thanks, Bode.
***
Now, we already discussed the trips that the top two finishers received, but let's take a moment to examine how the third-through-last-place finisher performed . . .
Dullahan and Went the Day Well both encountered a bit of traffic early on, especially the latter colt, but both finished up strongly in the stretch and clearly relished the dirt and distance. Creative Cause raced wide all the way around the track, losing ground throughout, but still was able to loom menacingly in the stretch before flattening out just a bit. Liaison completely outran his 56-1 odds to finish an even sixth, beaten seven lengths. Union Rags was bumped and squeezed at the start, forcing him to drop back some twenty lengths off of the early lead. He continued to encounter traffic thereafter, although he did finish up mildly well when finally clear in the homestretch. Rousing Sermon settled off of the early pace and was in the process of making a nice run along the rail when forced to wait for racing room behind a fading Take Charge Indy. Despite this, he re-rallied just a bit when back in the clear and would certainly have performed better with a cleaner trip. Hansen looked very uncomfortable and agitated in the post parade while sweating a great deal, and was rank during the early stages of the race. Seeing how much he had up against him, I thought he ran reasonably well to finish ninth. Daddy Nose Best didn't really have any excuses; he simply didn't fire. Optimizer raced along the rail all the way around the track but couldn't make up ground in the stretch. Alpha, like Hansen, seemed agitated in the post parade and broke awkwardly at the start. From there, he simply never fired. El Padrino settled into last place early on, trailing by twenty-two lengths after a half-mile, and while he did pass some tiring rivals in the stretch, he never really made up any ground on the leaders. Done Talking, like, El Padrino, raced well off of the early pace and passed tiring rivals. Sabercat raced off of the early pace and made a bit of a rally on the far turn, but ran out of steam and was well beaten. Gemologist secured good early position while racing in fifth, but seemed a bit rank and tired badly in the stretch. Trinniberg, as discussed above, dueled with Bodemeister for the early lead and tired badly in the final quarter mile. Prospective clipped Hansen's heels at the start, stumbling badly and nearly losing his rider. From that point onward, he was never in serious contention. Take Charge Indy secured perfect positioning early on while racing along the rail under Calvin Borel, but threw in the towel quite suddenly on the far turn and was all but eased. Daddy Long Legs broke beautifully along the rail and raced fourth early on, but tired from his efforts and was eased in the stretch.
All of the runners emerged from the race without serious injury. Take Charge Indy suffered an ankle chip, which may have explained his poor performance, but he is expected to be back to racing in the fall. Gemologist emerged from the race with a bruised foot, and will miss the remainder of the Triple Crown, but it is hoped that he will be back in time for the Haskell.
Obviously, for the winner, the Preakness Stakes (gr. I) and a bid to continue his Triple Crown quest is next. Here are the next-race goals or possibilities for the remainder of the Derby runners:
Bodemeister - possible for Preakness Stakes (gr. I)
Dullahan - Belmont Stakes (gr. I)
Went the Day Well - Preakness Stakes (gr. I)
Creative Cause - possible for Preakness Stakes (gr. I)
Liaison - Unknown
Union Rags - Belmont Stakes (gr. I)
Rousing Sermon - Unknown
Hansen - possible for Preakness Stakes (gr. I)
Daddy Nose Best - Unknown
Optimizer - Preakness Stakes (gr. I)
Alpha - Unknown
El Padrino - Unknown
Done Talking - Unknown
Sabercat - Unknown
Gemologist - Injured
Trinniberg - Woody Stephens Stakes (gr. II)
Prospective - Unknown
Take Charge Indy - Injured
Daddy Long Legs - Unknown -- has returned to Ireland
As we can see, as many as six Derby runners, include I'll Have Another, may return for the Preakness. True, only three have been officially confirmed, but I would say chances are excellent that Bodemeister and Creative Cause will continue onward to the second jewel of the Triple Crown as well. Hansen's connections are leaning toward skipping the race, but they aren't officially out yet either.
Newcomers that are possible for the Preakness include Cozzetti, Isn't He Clever, Paynter, Tiger Walk, Pretension, Brimstone Island, Zetterholm, Hierro, and Teeth of the Dog. Other contenders could emerge, but that is pretty much the prospective field as of today.
On to Pimlico!
-Keelerman
***
On May 7th, 2005, a promising chestnut colt by the name of Flower Alley entered the starting gate at Churchill Downs for the 131st running of the Kentucky Derby. A slow start -- followed by one of the fastest paces in Derby history -- compromised the speedy colt's chances, and he wound up finishing a distant ninth behind longshot winner Giacomo.
Seven years later, a son of Flower Alley headed to Churchill Downs in an attempt to win the race his sire could not. Named I'll Have Another, the colt brought stronger credentials into the race than his father had. Whereas Flower Alley had won the Lane's End Stakes (gr. II) and finished second in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I), I'll Have Another was bringing a streak of consecutive victories in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) and Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) to Louisville.
But other than that, the similarities between the two were astonishing. Both were brilliant chestnut colts. Both had a great deal of natural speed, and with it, an inclination to be close to the early lead. And as it turned out, both father and son were forced to deal with some of the most brilliant displays of early speed ever witnessed in Kentucky Derby history.
Flower Alley had come to Churchill as a huge longshot, garnering almost no respect in the betting. As talented as he would eventually prove to be -- he won the Travers (gr. I) and Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. II) later in the year -- he never even got a chance to prove it at Churchill. The reason? A rabbit by the name of Spanish Chestnut was entered in an attempt to keep favored (and front-running) Bellamy Road from stealing the race on the front end.
As it turned out, Spanish Chestnut set one of the fastest paces in Derby history, ruining the chances of any colt within five or six lengths of his blinding pace. That included Flower Alley, whose speedy talents became more of a hindrance when he found himself only a couple of lengths behind the early leader.
And so of course, when I'll Have Another arrived at Churchill for the Derby, one couldn't help but wonder if a similar scenario would occur. I'll Have Another had been brilliantly handled by trainer Doug O'Neill of Lava Man fame. As a juvenile, he has shown promise when placing in a graded stakes race, but soon went to the sidelines with shin soreness. He returned at three to pull a shocking 43-1 upset in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, defeating such highly-regarded Derby contenders as Liaison, Rousing Sermon, Empire Way, and Sky Kingdom.
The next logical start would have been in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) one month later. But O'Neill instead decided to give his colt two months rest, instead awaiting the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I). During that time frame, he worked the colt long and fast. Six furlongs, seven furlongs, one mile -- there was no doubt that he would be fit for the Santa Anita Derby.
But many questioned the move at the time, including myself, wondering if it was the wisest of decisions. Perhaps the extra time would yield a the colt a Santa Anita Derby victory. But it would also mean that he would enter the Derby off of a mere one-month layoff. Given that he had won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) in such dominating fashion following a lengthy layoff, it would make sense that his connections would seek to avoid a "bounce" by giving him plenty of time before his next start. But if he ran big again in the Santa Anita Derby, would it not stand to reason that he would be setting himself up for a bounce in the Kentucky Derby?
All of these thoughts were surely considered by O'Neill. But after concluding that it was certainly the best of plans, he and the rest of the colt's connections continued on their way. Whether it deserved to be questioned or not, their theory of how to prep their colt for the Derby would prove to be sheer brilliance in the end.
Part A of the Derby plan had been completed with the victory in the Robert B. Lewis. Part B, a win in the Santa Anita Derby, also went smoothly. In that race, the colt settled kindly into the second position early on before finishing up strongly to defeat the highly regarded Creative Cause by a nose in the sharp time of 1:47.88.
On to Louisville.
The colt's training went smoothly leading up to the Run for the Roses. Two stiff six-furlong breezes at Hollywood Park were followed by a flight to Churchill Downs, where he would only gallop in the days leading up to the biggest race of his career. It was not the usual method of training a Derby winner. After all, the majority of trainers prefer to arrive at Churchill in time to work their colts once or twice over the Churchill main track, in an effort to familiarize their horses with the surface. But O'Neill clearly felt that I'll Have Another needed no such preparation.
And the lack of a workout at Churchill wasn't the only thing they would have to overcome. On the Wednesday before the Derby, I'll Have Another was assigned stall nineteen during the post position draw. And as everyone knew, no horse had ever won the Derby from stall nineteen.
Then there was his jockey. Named Mario Gutierrez, the young rider had begun his career in 2006, and had gotten off to a very promising start while riding at Hastings Park in Canada. Recently, he moved his tack to California in an attempt to make a name for himself on one of the toughest racing curcuits in the country. The plan was not going very well, but then his luck changed when he landed the mount on a huge longshot in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes -- a colt by the name of I'll Have Another.
Two brilliant rides later, Gutierrez had his first mount in the Kentucky Derby.
But there was one more obstacle to overcome, that being the presence of Bodemeister, Hansen, and Trinniberg in the Derby. A trio of ultra-talented front runners, it appeared very possible that a fast pace would be the result of their face-off.
Possibly a very fast pace.
Possibly as fast as Spanish Chestnut ran in 2005.
No one was questioning I'll Have Another's talent heading into the Derby. What they were questioning was his ability to overcome post nineteen, his speedy nature, and the presence of a trio of true front-runners. Then there was Gutierrez. Would he be able to guide I'll Have Another through these obstacles in his very first Derby ride?
The answer: Yes. Definitely.
At 6:31 EST on May 5th, 2012, the starting gates opened at Churchill Downs and twenty three-year-olds were sent on their way down the long Churchill Downs homestretch. Quickest into stride was the 4-1 favorite Bodemeister, who rocketed from the gate and emerged the leader in the early stages. Also in the early mix was Trinniberg, who settled into the second position on the outside while pressing the pace. Hansen was in behind them in third, followed closely by Gemologist and Daddy Long Legs.
I'll Have Another? He was being given an absolutely flawless ride by Gutierrez, who had tucked his mount into the sixth position early on, about four lengths from the front while racing with only one horse to his inside. To accomplish this task after breaking from post nineteen was simply incredible.
But would even a perfect ride enable I'll Have Another to win? Gutierrez had done everything in his power to get the colt into a good position early on, but there was nothing he could do about the pace. And it was fast.
Up front, neither Bodemeister or Trinniberg were about to concede the other the lead, and there speedy duel resulted in a blazing opening quarter mile of :22.32, the fifth-fastest opening quarter mile in Derby history. But they were just getting warmed up. A torrid second quarter in :23.07 seconds brought them to a half-mile in :45.39 -- the fifth-fastest half mile in Derby history.
Was the unthinkable happening? Would I'll Have Another, like his father before him, be done in by his own speedy nature? Would the months of preparation, big victories, anticipation, training, and dreams be rendered meaningless by a cruel twist of fate?
Never in his career had I'll Have Another successfully rated more than a couple of lengths off the early pace. Not that anyone really thought that he couldn't, but the facts showed that the one time he found himself farther off the pace than usual, he had failed to hit the board.
But in the Derby, it all changed. Under Gutierrez's careful ride, I'll Have Another was successfully rating eight lengths off the pace, the farthest he had ever been from the early lead. The :45.39 half mile would surely do in those setting it, and likely everyone within a few lengths of it as well. But not I'll Have Another.
From there, I'll Have Another and Gutierrez just had to stay in the clear and run like the wind.
Up front, Bodemeister and Trinniberg continued their destructive duel for the lead, running three-quarters of a mile in a scorching 1:09.80 -- the fourth-fastest three-quarters of a mile in Derby history. It appeared as though the 2012 Derby would end similarily to the 2005 version, with the front-runnings completely falling apart in the stretch while allowing the closers to rally for victory.
But during the next quarter of a mile, the almost unimaginable occurred. Bodemeister didn't stop.
All Derby logic states that when you run three-quarters of a mile in 1:09 and change, you tire. That's just the way it is. You can't run that fast going a mile and a quarter and still hang around for a piece of the purse.
But that is exactly what Bodemeister did. With another burst of speed, he turned back Trinniberg and Hansen to enter the homestretch with a three-length lead. The crowd roared, for the favorite was turning in the performance of a lifetime and appeared to be on his way to victory.
But just behind him, a brilliant chestnut colt was beginning a rally that would not be denied.
While Bodemeister was in the process of sprinting clear of the field, I'll Have Another and Gutierrez were splitting horses like seasoned pros. They surged past Gemologist. They surged past Take Charge Indy. They surged past Trinniberg and Hansen.
Now they were inside the eighth pole. Over 165,000 people cheered in unison, some for Bodemeister, some for I'll Have Another, some half-heartedly for the fading runners behind them.
200 yards to go. Bodemeister was still the leader. He had overcome an impossbly fast early pace, the late beginning to his racing career, and his own front-running nature to reach this point. He had accomplished what few before him had ever done, and what few in the future will ever match.
But in those final fleeting yards, the strain of all those burdens began to take their toll on Bodemeister. His stride shortened noticeably. Slowly at first, then quicker, his lead began to diminish, allowing a brilliant chestnut colt to drawer closer, then still closer.
100 yards to go. I'll Have Another summoned another desperate bid for the lead and surged up alongside Bodemeister. The roar of the crowd reached its crescendo. All eyes focused on the two leaders, who grappled alongside in a duel for the Derby. The longtime leader dug in tenaciously, and for a few brief moments appeared capable of turning back his rival and accomplishing the impossible.
But in those final yards, with the blood of Flower Alley flowing through his veins, I'll Have Another found a little something extra. The preparation, big victories, anticipation, training, and dreams all came together under the twin spires, sewn together by the brilliance of Gutierrez's ride. One final surge put him ahead of Bodemeister. A few more strides put him in the history books.
***
The complete order of finish was as follows:
1 I'll Have Another
2 Bodemeister
3 Dullahan
4 Went the Day Well
5 Creative Cause
6 Liaison
7 Union Rags
8 Rousing Sermon
9 Hansen
10 Daddy Nose Best
11 Optimizer
12 Alpha
13 El Padrino
14 Done Talking
15 Sabercat
16 Gemologist
17 Trinniberg
18 Prospective
19 Take Charge Indy
20 Daddy Long Legs
My selections performed only so-so. On my official "Kentucky Derby Selections" post, I listed Take Charge Indy as my top choice. However, as post time for the Derby approached, I took note of the seemingly speed-favoring nature of the track and switched to Bodemeister, as I mentioned in one of my Derby updates posted throughout the day. I ended up with the right horse, but while Bodemeister ran extremely well, he simply wasn't quite up to handling the eventual winner.
J.R. also liked Bodemeister, picking him to finish second, but his official top choice -- Daddy Nose Best -- failed to fire. On the other hand, he really like Went the Day Well, whereas I didn't particularly, and he felt good when the 30-1 shot rallied to finish a close fourth.
As for my hat, which made its yearly Derby selection, it selected Went the Day Well for the victory, so at least it did better than it has the last two years. It picked Bodemeister for third, Liaison for fourth, and Creative Cause for fifth, so it actually did fairly well with its top selections. But then again, it picked I'll Have Another to finish fifteenth . . . :)
***
Anyone who reads this blog with great frequency knows that I don't cheer much when watching races. Sometimes I might point out an instance of traffic to a fellow race-watcher, or utter the name of the leader to a fellow fan who happened to miss part of the race call. But cheering is just not something I do. Usually, I am too intent on watching every facet of the race to shout home my picks.
But occasionally, there comes a horse that simply stirs my emotions to the point where I forget about watching the race from a handicapper's point of view and simply start screaming out words of encouragement. Zenyatta was one of those horses. Awesome Gem is one of those horses.
And occasionally, a horse turns in a performance that astonishes me to the point where I just start cheering it home, regardless of who the horse is. It doesn't matter whether I picked the horse to win or not.
Last Saturday, I watched in awe as Bodemeister set those unbelievable early fractions and still kicked away from the field at the top of the stretch. Rounding the far turn, I will admit that the word "Superhorse" entered my mind. I felt like I was watching the legendary Black Stallion, or the great Dr. Fager. To watch a horse set fractions like those and enter the Churchill homestretch with a three-length advantage brought the cheers out of me.
But not without hesitation. At first, I uttered nothing more than a quiet "Come on, Bodemeister!" to myself, just a mere sentence of encouragement to a horse that appeared to be on his way to victory against all odds. But when I'll Have Another surged up alongside, I let loose a shout that only horses like Zenyatta can bring out of me:
"HANG ON, BODE!"
In the end, he didn't. He fell 1 1/2 lengths short. But for those few brief moments, I felt like I was watching the race of the decade. Thanks, Bode.
***
Now, we already discussed the trips that the top two finishers received, but let's take a moment to examine how the third-through-last-place finisher performed . . .
Dullahan and Went the Day Well both encountered a bit of traffic early on, especially the latter colt, but both finished up strongly in the stretch and clearly relished the dirt and distance. Creative Cause raced wide all the way around the track, losing ground throughout, but still was able to loom menacingly in the stretch before flattening out just a bit. Liaison completely outran his 56-1 odds to finish an even sixth, beaten seven lengths. Union Rags was bumped and squeezed at the start, forcing him to drop back some twenty lengths off of the early lead. He continued to encounter traffic thereafter, although he did finish up mildly well when finally clear in the homestretch. Rousing Sermon settled off of the early pace and was in the process of making a nice run along the rail when forced to wait for racing room behind a fading Take Charge Indy. Despite this, he re-rallied just a bit when back in the clear and would certainly have performed better with a cleaner trip. Hansen looked very uncomfortable and agitated in the post parade while sweating a great deal, and was rank during the early stages of the race. Seeing how much he had up against him, I thought he ran reasonably well to finish ninth. Daddy Nose Best didn't really have any excuses; he simply didn't fire. Optimizer raced along the rail all the way around the track but couldn't make up ground in the stretch. Alpha, like Hansen, seemed agitated in the post parade and broke awkwardly at the start. From there, he simply never fired. El Padrino settled into last place early on, trailing by twenty-two lengths after a half-mile, and while he did pass some tiring rivals in the stretch, he never really made up any ground on the leaders. Done Talking, like, El Padrino, raced well off of the early pace and passed tiring rivals. Sabercat raced off of the early pace and made a bit of a rally on the far turn, but ran out of steam and was well beaten. Gemologist secured good early position while racing in fifth, but seemed a bit rank and tired badly in the stretch. Trinniberg, as discussed above, dueled with Bodemeister for the early lead and tired badly in the final quarter mile. Prospective clipped Hansen's heels at the start, stumbling badly and nearly losing his rider. From that point onward, he was never in serious contention. Take Charge Indy secured perfect positioning early on while racing along the rail under Calvin Borel, but threw in the towel quite suddenly on the far turn and was all but eased. Daddy Long Legs broke beautifully along the rail and raced fourth early on, but tired from his efforts and was eased in the stretch.
All of the runners emerged from the race without serious injury. Take Charge Indy suffered an ankle chip, which may have explained his poor performance, but he is expected to be back to racing in the fall. Gemologist emerged from the race with a bruised foot, and will miss the remainder of the Triple Crown, but it is hoped that he will be back in time for the Haskell.
Obviously, for the winner, the Preakness Stakes (gr. I) and a bid to continue his Triple Crown quest is next. Here are the next-race goals or possibilities for the remainder of the Derby runners:
Bodemeister - possible for Preakness Stakes (gr. I)
Dullahan - Belmont Stakes (gr. I)
Went the Day Well - Preakness Stakes (gr. I)
Creative Cause - possible for Preakness Stakes (gr. I)
Liaison - Unknown
Union Rags - Belmont Stakes (gr. I)
Rousing Sermon - Unknown
Hansen - possible for Preakness Stakes (gr. I)
Daddy Nose Best - Unknown
Optimizer - Preakness Stakes (gr. I)
Alpha - Unknown
El Padrino - Unknown
Done Talking - Unknown
Sabercat - Unknown
Gemologist - Injured
Trinniberg - Woody Stephens Stakes (gr. II)
Prospective - Unknown
Take Charge Indy - Injured
Daddy Long Legs - Unknown -- has returned to Ireland
As we can see, as many as six Derby runners, include I'll Have Another, may return for the Preakness. True, only three have been officially confirmed, but I would say chances are excellent that Bodemeister and Creative Cause will continue onward to the second jewel of the Triple Crown as well. Hansen's connections are leaning toward skipping the race, but they aren't officially out yet either.
Newcomers that are possible for the Preakness include Cozzetti, Isn't He Clever, Paynter, Tiger Walk, Pretension, Brimstone Island, Zetterholm, Hierro, and Teeth of the Dog. Other contenders could emerge, but that is pretty much the prospective field as of today.
On to Pimlico!
-Keelerman
Friday, May 04, 2012
2012 KENTUCKY DERBY SELECTIONS
This is it. The race we have all been anticipating. For months, we have studied the results of practially every stakes races for three-year-olds in the country. Some of us have even studied the allowance races and maiden special weights. Occasionally, we have looked to the maiden claiming ranks for any horse that strikes us with potential talent.
We have seen promising contenders arise with victories in major preps. We have seen them fall to the sidelines due to subsequently poor performances or injuries. Slowly, bit by bit, the Derby picture became clearer, only to blur dramatically as shocking upsets occurred.
Horses like I'll Have Another, Bodemeister, and Daddy Nose Best appeared seemingly from nowhere, stamping themselves as major contenders with rousing victories in prestigious races. Others, like Union Rags, Creative Cause, and Hansen, have been major contenders since we first started thinking about the Derby.
Now it's time to make our final selections. All the time we have spent ranking the Derby contenders back in February is pretty much useless. It's been fun, but now it's time to get serious. This is the Derby. The post positions are out. The final field is set. The Oaks has been run. Let's take a look at the field.
UNLIKELY CONTENDERS
#1 DADDY LONG LEGS - As impressive as this colt's UAE Derby victory was, this colt may simply have too much against him to pull off a victory. Not only has he drawn the dreaded post position one, but he is going to find himself further off of the early pace than usual. In addition, his lone start on dirt yielded a very poor performance in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
#20 LIAISON - Just as I have tossed the horse in gate one, I am going to toss the horse in gate twenty. Liaison showed plenty of talent as a juvenile, winning the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) in an impressive performance, but he's disappointed in three starts this year and really looks like a major longshot. On the other hand, he seems to be training very well here at Churchill, and you never can count out Bob Baffert. Still, it's difficult to consider this colt as a contender in this very tough race.
#2 OPTIMIZER - This fairly inconsistent colt ran well two starts back while finishing second to Secret Circle in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II), but showed nothing last time out when ninth in the Arkansas Derby. He ran okay here at Churchill in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) last fall, and he's got a perfect post position for taking back and making one run, but there are plenty of other quality closers in here that have been more consistent as of late.
#9 TRINNIBERG - Now, I can see this colt setting a slow pace on the front end, kicking on for home, and hanging on for a minor share of the purse, but this colt has never raced beyond seven furlongs, performed dismally here at Churchill in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint, and figures to be pressed into a pretty fast pace. And he isn't bred to go this far either. But don't be surprised if he has the lead turning for home and doesn't give in as easily as expected.
MEDIUM CONTENDERS
#11 ALPHA - Welcome to a very long list of "Medium Contenders!" Alpha ran very well in the Wood Memorial (gr. I) last time out, closing fast to be beaten just a neck after checking hard on the first turn, but the fact that he missed some training with an injury has me a bit worried. He's looked fine in training since then, but I just can't consider him a win contender given the situation. But he does have a beautiful mile-and-a-quarter pedigree, so you never know. Win or lose, he shoud be coming strongly late.
#10 DADDY NOSE BEST - I have a lot of respect for this horse, for in his Sunland Derby (gr. III) victory, he was able to run down a loose-on-the-lead, horse-for-the-course in Isn't He Clever -- and that's definitely not an easy thing to do. Furthermore, he has been training at Churchill Downs for over a month, and he's looked great in his workouts. His speed figures are competitive, he's got a top jockey in the saddle, and trainer Steve Asmussen is due for a Derby win. But it is worth noting that a number of Sunland Derby starters have come back to perform dismally in their next starts, including Isn't He Clever and third-place finisher Stirred Up. This fact, coupled with the fact that I still believe this colt is better on turf, lead me to include in the "Medium Contenders" category rather than the "Top Contenders" division, although I certainly acknowledge that he has an excellent shot at winning.
#17 DONE TALKING - A lot of people are tossing this colt because his Illinois Derby (gr. III) victory came in such a slow time. But I've liked this late-running colt for a long time, and I can envision him picking off a late of tiring horse in the homestretch. I wouldn't be surprised at all if this colt makes his way into the superfecta.
#5 DULLAHAN - The big question here is whether or not he will take to the surface. By far his best success has come over synthetic and turf surfaces, while he has never cracked the trifecta on dirt. But that's not really a fair statistic, because he did finish fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) last year behind Hansen, Union Rags, and Creative Cause. He looked simply terrific winning the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) last time out, and although I haven't been thrilled with the way he has trained at Churchill Downs, there's no denying that he will be closing ground at the finish. It's simply a question of whether or not he'll get there in time.
#16 EL PADRINO - This colt was considered by many, including myself, to be a major Derby contender earlier this year after he won the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) in impressive fashion. However, a fourth-place finish in the Florida Derby (gr. I) last time out has caused him to drop off of most people's radars. But in that race, the colt -- who is more of a grinder than anything else -- was taken back off the pace while racing quite wide in order to keep race favorite Union Rags in a pocket, and when he was asked to accelerate in the homestretch, he couldn't muster the necessary run. He probably shouldn't be counted out of finishing in the top five, but his training hasn't been all that spectacular, and it's possible that he has gone off form.
#14 HANSEN - One thing is for certain, we will know at all times where this colt is positioned on the racetrack -- after all, who can miss this pratically white horse? Chances are that he'll be racing first or second in the early stages, preferably right behind Trinniberg going into the first turn. From there, it's simply a matter of how far he can run. He doesn't have the greatest mile-and-a-quarter pedigree, and he was tiring at the finish of the Blue Grass Stakes, but he did win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile here at Churchill last year, and it's possible that he will go to the front and just keep on running.
#19 I'LL HAVE ANOTHER - The fact that he has drawn gate nineteen is not going to help the Santa Anita Derby winner's chances. A speedy colt, he wants to be close to the lead early on -- which could lead to a very wide trip if he fails to out-sprint some of the other speedsters to the front end. Another thing that concerns me is the fact that his big victories have come off of lengthy rest periods, and now he has to try and turn in a career-best performance off of just four weeks rest. Perhaps he can do it, but I'm leaning toward saying he won't.
#12 PROSPECTIVE - Consider him my best longshot play. Sure, he didn't look all that great finishing sixth in the Blue Grass Stakes, but in my opinion, he just didn't look comfortable over the Polytrack. A return to dirt, over which he won the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) back in March, could be all he needs to return to form. Add that to the fact that he has been at Churchill for weeks -- training beautifully -- and you have to consider this colt a leading contender for cracking the top five at a huge price.
#7 ROUSING SERMON - The runner-up to Liaison in last year's CashCall Futurity, this colt disappointed in a pair of grade II Derby preps at Santa Anita this winter, then shipped to Fair Grounds and finished a late-running third in the Louisiana Derby (gr. II). I consider this colt a leading off-the-pace longshot like Done Talking -- he'll be passing tired horses in the stretch, but probably not threatening for the win. But you never know.
#18 SABERCAT - Like his stablemate Daddy Nose Best, this Steve Asmussen-trainee has looked good training at Churchill, but the fact still remains that he was soundly beaten in both the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) and the Arkansas Derby (gr. I) this spring. He's got enough juvenile back class to suggest that he could rally from well off the pace to secure a piece, but of the Asmussen pair, I prefer Daddy Nose Best.
#13 WENT THE DAY WELL - Hard to say what to think of this one. Racing for the same connections as the 2011 Kentucky Derby (gr. I) winner Animal Kingdom, Went the Day Well won the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III) last time out despite racing greenly in the homestretch. He has since trained well at Churchill Downs, but will add blinkers in the Derby. His biggest success came on Polytack, but he broke his maiden on the Gulfstream dirt. He's bred to stay a mile and a quarter, but is relatively unproven. I guess whether or not one considers him a major contender depends on whether or not you think he's got a big step forward inside him. Can Team Valor, Graham Motion, and John Velazquez work their Derby magic again? We find out tomorrow.
TOP CONTENDERS
#6 BODEMEISTER - Now we're getting into some really serious contenders. First off, let me say that I can't really see this colt getting a bad trip. He's got plenty of early speed to get himself into good position, and plenty of stamina to call upon in that crucial final furlong. He's got a Hall of Fame jockey in the saddle, and a Hall of Fame trainer directing his preparation. He does have the Apollo Curse hanging over his head (he was unraced as a juvenile; no horse has won the Derby with racing at two since Apollo in 1882), but perhaps this colt is simply talented enough to overcome his lack of two-year-old foundation.
#8 CREATIVE CAUSE - Should I pick him or shouldn't I? This colt has been at the top of my Derby list since January, but I have heard just enough rumors of issues -- true or otherwise -- to make me wonder if he isn't prepared for a big effort. Apparently, he has been jogging stiffly, but looks fine when allowed to stretch his legs and really run. Is it silly to worry about a little stiff jogging? Perhaps. What about the fact that he lost a shoe on the flight from California? Is that an issue? I'm leaning toward saying that none of this is really going to affect him, but the fact that he hasn't been wowing anyone with his training -- when he needs to be training like never before -- is having me re-think selecting him for the win.
#15 GEMOLOGIST - He's undefeated in five starts, and he's 2-for-2 at Churchill Downs. So why isn't he receiving more hype? He's a Wood Memorial winner! I have given serious thought to picking this colt to win, if not just for his perfect Churchill record. Add that to the fact that he has tactical speed, plenty of stamina, tons of determination, a top jockey, etc. etc., and you have yourself a colt that would be the Derby favorite in most years. The one thing that bothers me is the fact that he does "paddle" -- that is, his stride is slightly abnormal. This can lead to soundness issues. Chances are, it won't affect him in the Derby, but it is something to be a little concerned about.
#3 TAKE CHARGE INDY - There is no way you can toss Calvin Borel's mount, and when his mount is the Florida Derby winner, you've got to think that Borel is going to make the most of the situation. Toss in the fact that he has been training beautifully, and will be breaking from post three -- I may just have to pick this colt to win. He's got the pedigree to carry him a mile and a quarter or beyond, not to mention the fact that he seems to only now be reaching his peak. Can Borel win his fourth Derby in six years? We find out tomorrow.
#4 UNION RAGS - This is the horse that everyone has been talking about since last fall, when he swept to victory in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) at Belmont Park. He has really done much wrong since then, with the notable exception of his Florida Derby defeat. He's been training extremely well, and should be ready to deliver a peak performance. Julien Leparoux has been riding plenty of winners at Churchill during the last week. The colt ran well here at Churchill in last year's Breeders' Cup. Is there anything not to like? Well, he is a huge colt that needs some time to really get rolling, so if he gets trapped in a pocket rounding the far turn, it's possible that he won't be able to extract himself in time to get a clear run. Furthermore, from a speed figure standpoint, he really hasn't gotten any better from age two to three. These marks against him are minor, and I certainly understand those who are picking him to win. Even I have given it serious thought. But after he drew gate four, I have decided to side with others for the top spot.
***
That said, who am I picking? I still don't know. My final selection is going to depend of how the track is playing on Saturday. There didn't seem to be any bias this afternoon, but then again, biases seem to come an go mysteriously, sometimes appearing for no obvious reason at all. So if it becomes clear tomorrow that there is a speed bias overriding all other handicapping techniques, then I would have to lean toward Bodemeister. On the other hand, if horses started winning from off the pace while rallying on the far, far outside, I might want to take another look at horses like Daddy Nose Best and Dullahan, or even Done Talking and Rousing Sermon.
The weather could also affect my picks. If the skies were to suddenly open up and dump a ton of rain on to the racetrack, I would definitely lean toward Take Charge Indy, Bodemeister, Union Rags, and El Padrino -- the latter three because they have raced and/or trained so well over wet tracks, the former due to the fact that Borel is the master of Churchill in the mud.
But of course, I have to post some sort of selections here tonight, even if I do change them sometime tomorrow. So here I go:
1 Take Charge Indy
2 Bodemeister
3 Union Rags
4 Done Talking
What am I doing? I just left Creative Cause out of the superfecta! Perhaps all the research I have poured into handicapping this Derby has caused me to lose my mind. The colt I have had on top for weeks is not in my top four?
Hopefully, I will convince myself to put him back on top sometime tomorrow. I'd really like to see him win. But I have simply heard so many rumors about him that it has shaken my confidence.
So for the moment, Take Charge Indy is my top pick, although he is certainly not a confident selection. I would feel better about it if the track turns up sloppy tomorrow. If it doesn't, then I may switch to Bodemeister. Or Creative Cause. Or Union Rags. Or Gemologist. Or Daddy Nose Best. Ask me five minutes before post time, and I might pick Trinniberg.
I'm putting Union Rags in the third spot for now because I think he is going to get a tough trip, and I think he may not be able to accelerate in time to win. He should be coming late, but from post four, it's going to be difficult.
Done Talking? He's my longshot for fourth. I don't really see him winning, just cracking the superfecta at a huge price.
Now, here are J.R.'s selections:
1 Daddy Nose Best
2 Bodemeister
3 Went the Day Well
4 Alpha
J.R. likes the large Beyer speed figure Daddy Nose Best earned in the Sunland Derby, and feels the colt has another big step forward within him. Furthermore, he likes how well the colt has been training here at Churchill.
Bodemeister is his second choice, simply because he feels the colt will have the lead at the eighth pole and will be very difficult to catch from there. But with the Apollo curse hanging over him, he just couldn't see picking him to win.
Went the Day Well is his longshot for third, simply because he thinks the colt is ready to step up and run a more professional race while wearing blinkers for the first time. As for Alpha, he likes him for fourth based on the fact that he overcame such adversity to finish second in the Wood. He also really likes his pedigree.
***
Now, it seems that someone says this every year, so I might as well tack it on the end of this post -- this is the most perplexing Derby I have ever encountered. And I mean it! Usually, there are a number of contenders that you feel fairly confident in tossing out. But this year, it seems that at least three-fourths of the field have a shot at finishing in the superfecta. And take a horse like Gemologist. In a normal year, he would be the heavy favorite. This year, he will be no better than the third choice.
So let's sit back and get ready to watch what should be one of the most exciting Derbies in recent memory. Nearly every major contender has made it to the race. Nearly everyone drew a good post position. Nearly everyone has trained beautifully for the race.
Who knows? Perhaps this will go down in history as the greatest Derby of all time!
(Note: Be sure to check out our Kentucky Derby Handicapping Contest, in which one lucky handicapper will win a free copy of "The 10 Best Kentucky Derbies," published by Eclipse Press. Read the details here!)
-Keelerman
We have seen promising contenders arise with victories in major preps. We have seen them fall to the sidelines due to subsequently poor performances or injuries. Slowly, bit by bit, the Derby picture became clearer, only to blur dramatically as shocking upsets occurred.
Horses like I'll Have Another, Bodemeister, and Daddy Nose Best appeared seemingly from nowhere, stamping themselves as major contenders with rousing victories in prestigious races. Others, like Union Rags, Creative Cause, and Hansen, have been major contenders since we first started thinking about the Derby.
Now it's time to make our final selections. All the time we have spent ranking the Derby contenders back in February is pretty much useless. It's been fun, but now it's time to get serious. This is the Derby. The post positions are out. The final field is set. The Oaks has been run. Let's take a look at the field.
UNLIKELY CONTENDERS
#1 DADDY LONG LEGS - As impressive as this colt's UAE Derby victory was, this colt may simply have too much against him to pull off a victory. Not only has he drawn the dreaded post position one, but he is going to find himself further off of the early pace than usual. In addition, his lone start on dirt yielded a very poor performance in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
#20 LIAISON - Just as I have tossed the horse in gate one, I am going to toss the horse in gate twenty. Liaison showed plenty of talent as a juvenile, winning the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) in an impressive performance, but he's disappointed in three starts this year and really looks like a major longshot. On the other hand, he seems to be training very well here at Churchill, and you never can count out Bob Baffert. Still, it's difficult to consider this colt as a contender in this very tough race.
#2 OPTIMIZER - This fairly inconsistent colt ran well two starts back while finishing second to Secret Circle in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II), but showed nothing last time out when ninth in the Arkansas Derby. He ran okay here at Churchill in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) last fall, and he's got a perfect post position for taking back and making one run, but there are plenty of other quality closers in here that have been more consistent as of late.
#9 TRINNIBERG - Now, I can see this colt setting a slow pace on the front end, kicking on for home, and hanging on for a minor share of the purse, but this colt has never raced beyond seven furlongs, performed dismally here at Churchill in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint, and figures to be pressed into a pretty fast pace. And he isn't bred to go this far either. But don't be surprised if he has the lead turning for home and doesn't give in as easily as expected.
MEDIUM CONTENDERS
#11 ALPHA - Welcome to a very long list of "Medium Contenders!" Alpha ran very well in the Wood Memorial (gr. I) last time out, closing fast to be beaten just a neck after checking hard on the first turn, but the fact that he missed some training with an injury has me a bit worried. He's looked fine in training since then, but I just can't consider him a win contender given the situation. But he does have a beautiful mile-and-a-quarter pedigree, so you never know. Win or lose, he shoud be coming strongly late.
#10 DADDY NOSE BEST - I have a lot of respect for this horse, for in his Sunland Derby (gr. III) victory, he was able to run down a loose-on-the-lead, horse-for-the-course in Isn't He Clever -- and that's definitely not an easy thing to do. Furthermore, he has been training at Churchill Downs for over a month, and he's looked great in his workouts. His speed figures are competitive, he's got a top jockey in the saddle, and trainer Steve Asmussen is due for a Derby win. But it is worth noting that a number of Sunland Derby starters have come back to perform dismally in their next starts, including Isn't He Clever and third-place finisher Stirred Up. This fact, coupled with the fact that I still believe this colt is better on turf, lead me to include in the "Medium Contenders" category rather than the "Top Contenders" division, although I certainly acknowledge that he has an excellent shot at winning.
#17 DONE TALKING - A lot of people are tossing this colt because his Illinois Derby (gr. III) victory came in such a slow time. But I've liked this late-running colt for a long time, and I can envision him picking off a late of tiring horse in the homestretch. I wouldn't be surprised at all if this colt makes his way into the superfecta.
#5 DULLAHAN - The big question here is whether or not he will take to the surface. By far his best success has come over synthetic and turf surfaces, while he has never cracked the trifecta on dirt. But that's not really a fair statistic, because he did finish fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) last year behind Hansen, Union Rags, and Creative Cause. He looked simply terrific winning the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) last time out, and although I haven't been thrilled with the way he has trained at Churchill Downs, there's no denying that he will be closing ground at the finish. It's simply a question of whether or not he'll get there in time.
#16 EL PADRINO - This colt was considered by many, including myself, to be a major Derby contender earlier this year after he won the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) in impressive fashion. However, a fourth-place finish in the Florida Derby (gr. I) last time out has caused him to drop off of most people's radars. But in that race, the colt -- who is more of a grinder than anything else -- was taken back off the pace while racing quite wide in order to keep race favorite Union Rags in a pocket, and when he was asked to accelerate in the homestretch, he couldn't muster the necessary run. He probably shouldn't be counted out of finishing in the top five, but his training hasn't been all that spectacular, and it's possible that he has gone off form.
#14 HANSEN - One thing is for certain, we will know at all times where this colt is positioned on the racetrack -- after all, who can miss this pratically white horse? Chances are that he'll be racing first or second in the early stages, preferably right behind Trinniberg going into the first turn. From there, it's simply a matter of how far he can run. He doesn't have the greatest mile-and-a-quarter pedigree, and he was tiring at the finish of the Blue Grass Stakes, but he did win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile here at Churchill last year, and it's possible that he will go to the front and just keep on running.
#19 I'LL HAVE ANOTHER - The fact that he has drawn gate nineteen is not going to help the Santa Anita Derby winner's chances. A speedy colt, he wants to be close to the lead early on -- which could lead to a very wide trip if he fails to out-sprint some of the other speedsters to the front end. Another thing that concerns me is the fact that his big victories have come off of lengthy rest periods, and now he has to try and turn in a career-best performance off of just four weeks rest. Perhaps he can do it, but I'm leaning toward saying he won't.
#12 PROSPECTIVE - Consider him my best longshot play. Sure, he didn't look all that great finishing sixth in the Blue Grass Stakes, but in my opinion, he just didn't look comfortable over the Polytrack. A return to dirt, over which he won the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) back in March, could be all he needs to return to form. Add that to the fact that he has been at Churchill for weeks -- training beautifully -- and you have to consider this colt a leading contender for cracking the top five at a huge price.
#7 ROUSING SERMON - The runner-up to Liaison in last year's CashCall Futurity, this colt disappointed in a pair of grade II Derby preps at Santa Anita this winter, then shipped to Fair Grounds and finished a late-running third in the Louisiana Derby (gr. II). I consider this colt a leading off-the-pace longshot like Done Talking -- he'll be passing tired horses in the stretch, but probably not threatening for the win. But you never know.
#18 SABERCAT - Like his stablemate Daddy Nose Best, this Steve Asmussen-trainee has looked good training at Churchill, but the fact still remains that he was soundly beaten in both the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) and the Arkansas Derby (gr. I) this spring. He's got enough juvenile back class to suggest that he could rally from well off the pace to secure a piece, but of the Asmussen pair, I prefer Daddy Nose Best.
#13 WENT THE DAY WELL - Hard to say what to think of this one. Racing for the same connections as the 2011 Kentucky Derby (gr. I) winner Animal Kingdom, Went the Day Well won the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III) last time out despite racing greenly in the homestretch. He has since trained well at Churchill Downs, but will add blinkers in the Derby. His biggest success came on Polytack, but he broke his maiden on the Gulfstream dirt. He's bred to stay a mile and a quarter, but is relatively unproven. I guess whether or not one considers him a major contender depends on whether or not you think he's got a big step forward inside him. Can Team Valor, Graham Motion, and John Velazquez work their Derby magic again? We find out tomorrow.
TOP CONTENDERS
#6 BODEMEISTER - Now we're getting into some really serious contenders. First off, let me say that I can't really see this colt getting a bad trip. He's got plenty of early speed to get himself into good position, and plenty of stamina to call upon in that crucial final furlong. He's got a Hall of Fame jockey in the saddle, and a Hall of Fame trainer directing his preparation. He does have the Apollo Curse hanging over his head (he was unraced as a juvenile; no horse has won the Derby with racing at two since Apollo in 1882), but perhaps this colt is simply talented enough to overcome his lack of two-year-old foundation.
#8 CREATIVE CAUSE - Should I pick him or shouldn't I? This colt has been at the top of my Derby list since January, but I have heard just enough rumors of issues -- true or otherwise -- to make me wonder if he isn't prepared for a big effort. Apparently, he has been jogging stiffly, but looks fine when allowed to stretch his legs and really run. Is it silly to worry about a little stiff jogging? Perhaps. What about the fact that he lost a shoe on the flight from California? Is that an issue? I'm leaning toward saying that none of this is really going to affect him, but the fact that he hasn't been wowing anyone with his training -- when he needs to be training like never before -- is having me re-think selecting him for the win.
#15 GEMOLOGIST - He's undefeated in five starts, and he's 2-for-2 at Churchill Downs. So why isn't he receiving more hype? He's a Wood Memorial winner! I have given serious thought to picking this colt to win, if not just for his perfect Churchill record. Add that to the fact that he has tactical speed, plenty of stamina, tons of determination, a top jockey, etc. etc., and you have yourself a colt that would be the Derby favorite in most years. The one thing that bothers me is the fact that he does "paddle" -- that is, his stride is slightly abnormal. This can lead to soundness issues. Chances are, it won't affect him in the Derby, but it is something to be a little concerned about.
#3 TAKE CHARGE INDY - There is no way you can toss Calvin Borel's mount, and when his mount is the Florida Derby winner, you've got to think that Borel is going to make the most of the situation. Toss in the fact that he has been training beautifully, and will be breaking from post three -- I may just have to pick this colt to win. He's got the pedigree to carry him a mile and a quarter or beyond, not to mention the fact that he seems to only now be reaching his peak. Can Borel win his fourth Derby in six years? We find out tomorrow.
#4 UNION RAGS - This is the horse that everyone has been talking about since last fall, when he swept to victory in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) at Belmont Park. He has really done much wrong since then, with the notable exception of his Florida Derby defeat. He's been training extremely well, and should be ready to deliver a peak performance. Julien Leparoux has been riding plenty of winners at Churchill during the last week. The colt ran well here at Churchill in last year's Breeders' Cup. Is there anything not to like? Well, he is a huge colt that needs some time to really get rolling, so if he gets trapped in a pocket rounding the far turn, it's possible that he won't be able to extract himself in time to get a clear run. Furthermore, from a speed figure standpoint, he really hasn't gotten any better from age two to three. These marks against him are minor, and I certainly understand those who are picking him to win. Even I have given it serious thought. But after he drew gate four, I have decided to side with others for the top spot.
***
That said, who am I picking? I still don't know. My final selection is going to depend of how the track is playing on Saturday. There didn't seem to be any bias this afternoon, but then again, biases seem to come an go mysteriously, sometimes appearing for no obvious reason at all. So if it becomes clear tomorrow that there is a speed bias overriding all other handicapping techniques, then I would have to lean toward Bodemeister. On the other hand, if horses started winning from off the pace while rallying on the far, far outside, I might want to take another look at horses like Daddy Nose Best and Dullahan, or even Done Talking and Rousing Sermon.
The weather could also affect my picks. If the skies were to suddenly open up and dump a ton of rain on to the racetrack, I would definitely lean toward Take Charge Indy, Bodemeister, Union Rags, and El Padrino -- the latter three because they have raced and/or trained so well over wet tracks, the former due to the fact that Borel is the master of Churchill in the mud.
But of course, I have to post some sort of selections here tonight, even if I do change them sometime tomorrow. So here I go:
1 Take Charge Indy
2 Bodemeister
3 Union Rags
4 Done Talking
What am I doing? I just left Creative Cause out of the superfecta! Perhaps all the research I have poured into handicapping this Derby has caused me to lose my mind. The colt I have had on top for weeks is not in my top four?
Hopefully, I will convince myself to put him back on top sometime tomorrow. I'd really like to see him win. But I have simply heard so many rumors about him that it has shaken my confidence.
So for the moment, Take Charge Indy is my top pick, although he is certainly not a confident selection. I would feel better about it if the track turns up sloppy tomorrow. If it doesn't, then I may switch to Bodemeister. Or Creative Cause. Or Union Rags. Or Gemologist. Or Daddy Nose Best. Ask me five minutes before post time, and I might pick Trinniberg.
I'm putting Union Rags in the third spot for now because I think he is going to get a tough trip, and I think he may not be able to accelerate in time to win. He should be coming late, but from post four, it's going to be difficult.
Done Talking? He's my longshot for fourth. I don't really see him winning, just cracking the superfecta at a huge price.
Now, here are J.R.'s selections:
1 Daddy Nose Best
2 Bodemeister
3 Went the Day Well
4 Alpha
J.R. likes the large Beyer speed figure Daddy Nose Best earned in the Sunland Derby, and feels the colt has another big step forward within him. Furthermore, he likes how well the colt has been training here at Churchill.
Bodemeister is his second choice, simply because he feels the colt will have the lead at the eighth pole and will be very difficult to catch from there. But with the Apollo curse hanging over him, he just couldn't see picking him to win.
Went the Day Well is his longshot for third, simply because he thinks the colt is ready to step up and run a more professional race while wearing blinkers for the first time. As for Alpha, he likes him for fourth based on the fact that he overcame such adversity to finish second in the Wood. He also really likes his pedigree.
***
Now, it seems that someone says this every year, so I might as well tack it on the end of this post -- this is the most perplexing Derby I have ever encountered. And I mean it! Usually, there are a number of contenders that you feel fairly confident in tossing out. But this year, it seems that at least three-fourths of the field have a shot at finishing in the superfecta. And take a horse like Gemologist. In a normal year, he would be the heavy favorite. This year, he will be no better than the third choice.
So let's sit back and get ready to watch what should be one of the most exciting Derbies in recent memory. Nearly every major contender has made it to the race. Nearly everyone drew a good post position. Nearly everyone has trained beautifully for the race.
Who knows? Perhaps this will go down in history as the greatest Derby of all time!
(Note: Be sure to check out our Kentucky Derby Handicapping Contest, in which one lucky handicapper will win a free copy of "The 10 Best Kentucky Derbies," published by Eclipse Press. Read the details here!)
-Keelerman
Monday, April 30, 2012
KEELERMAN'S TOP TWELVE -- April 29th, 2012
(As the Derby is now just six days away, this will be my final Top Twelve of the year. Following the release of entries and post positions on Wednesday, I shall do my best to handicap the race and have my selections readied by Friday. Enjoy!)
1. Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway - Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer) Trained by Mike Harrington
He arrived at Churchill Downs yesterday afternoon and is expected to breeze tomorrow morning. So long as it's a decent breeze that gets a little extra fitness into him, it should set him up well for the Derby. It will be interesting to see what the track is like tomorrow, as it was quite muddy today and more rain is expected.
2. Union Rags (Dixie Union - Tempo, by Gone West) Trained by Michael Matz
He looked really, really good on Saturday when he breezed five furlongs in :59 4/5 over a very muddy track while galloping out in terrific fashion. He cannot be coming into the race any better, and I may end up picking him to win the race if he draws a good post position.
3. Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) Trained by Patrick Byrne
I will admit that I wasn't quite sure why Patrick Byrne chose to give him his final work nine days before the race, but it's beginning to look like one of the smartest moves any trainer has made this year along the Derby trail. By working him a stiff five furlongs on April 26th, he was able to breeze his colt over a fast track -- avoiding the heavy rain that has hit Florida over the last couple of days. He ships to Churchill on Tuesday.
4. Bodemeister (Empire Maker - Untouched Talent, by Storm Cat) Trained by Bob Baffert
Like Union Rags, he could not have looked any better in his final workout, as Bodemeister breezed five furlongs in :59 3/5 over a muddy track that he seemed to handle very well. Obviously, he's got a lot to overcome -- the Apollo Curse, for one, and to a lesser extent, his own running style -- but this may be a year in which his raw talent is able to trump everything else.
5. Dullahan (Even the Score - Mining My Own, by Smart Strike) Trained by Dale Romans
On April 28th, he turned in what was described as a "maintenance work", going five furlongs in 1:01 1/5. He probably didn't need to go any faster, seeing that he won the Blue Grass Stakes just two weeks ago, but it's worth mentioning that his final breeze prior to the Blue Grass was a stiff five furlongs in :57 2/5.
6. Gemologist (Tiznow - Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Wood Memorial winner breezed four furlongs in :50.39 over a muddy track this morning at Palm Meadows Training Center. On the surface, it didn't appear to be a very fast time, but it was actually the quickest breeze of the day at that distance. His training has been thrown off just a bit due to poor weather in Florida, but he didn't really need to turn in a serious breeze today and it shouldn't affect him. Like Take Charge Indy, he ships to Churchill on Tuesday.
7. I'll Have Another (Flower Alley - Arch's Gal Edith, by Arch) Trained by Doug O'Neill
The fact that he underwent shock wave therapy on his back a few days ago had me a little concerned, but he came right back and breezed six furlongs in an excellent 1:13 4/5 on April 27th, so I'm not too worried now. He arrived at Churchill on Saturday, but he'll probably just gallop up to the Derby.
8. Alpha (Bernardini - Munnaya, by Nijinsky II) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
He has apparently overcome the issues that modified his training schedule, for he looked terrific breezing five furlongs in a bullet :59.54 at the Belmont Park training track yesterday. He is expected to arrive at Churchill Downs sometime tomorrow, where he will gallop up to the Derby. It's looking like Rajiv Maragh, who rode him in the workout, will ride him in the Derby.
9. Hansen (Tapit - Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat) Trained by Michael Maker
He turned in a really nice workout in company with Derby Kitten on Saturday, going five furlongs in 1:01 1/5 while being asked to run inside of his workmate toward the end of the work. It's interesting to note that he has been training at the Churchill training track, rather than at Churchill Downs itself.
10. Went the Day Well (Proud Citizen - Tiz Maie's Day, by Tiznow) Trained by Graham Motion
On Saturday, he worked five furlongs at Churchill Downs while wearing blinkers for the first time and really could not have looked much better. Breezing in company with Crimson China, he went the distance in 1:01 flat, a considerably quicker work than the ones he has recorded in the past. He seems to like the Churchill Downs dirt, and it's just possible that we might see a Team Valor repeat.
11. Mark Valeski (Proud Citizen - Pocho's Dream Girl, by Fortunate Prospect) Trained by Larry Jones
Whether or not he runs in the Derby is hinged on how well he works at Churchill Downs tomorrow. He seems to be somewhat forgotten, with all the discussion over the favorite's workouts dominating the headlines, but he really seems to be coming into this race in good fashion, and so long as he works well tomorrow, it should set him up for a peak effort on Saturday.
12. El Padrino (Pulpit - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher
I decided to drop him a couple of spots following the very slow :53.34 half-mile breeze this morning at Palm Meadows Training Center, the co-slowest workout of the day. Granted, the work did come over a slow, muddy track, but this is a colt that looked simply fabulous winning an allowance race in the slop earlier this year, and I would have liked to have seen something a bit quicker from this colt. After all, Gemologist's workout over the same track on the same day was nearly three seconds quicker.
Other Contenders
Daddy Long Legs
Daddy Nose Best
Done Talking
Liaison
Optimizer
Prospective
Rousing Sermon
Sabercat
Trinniberg
(Note: Be sure to check out our Kentucky Derby Handicapping Contest, in which one lucky handicapper will win a free copy of "The 10 Best Kentucky Derbies," published by Eclipse Press. Read the details here!)
-Keelerman
1. Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway - Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer) Trained by Mike Harrington
He arrived at Churchill Downs yesterday afternoon and is expected to breeze tomorrow morning. So long as it's a decent breeze that gets a little extra fitness into him, it should set him up well for the Derby. It will be interesting to see what the track is like tomorrow, as it was quite muddy today and more rain is expected.
2. Union Rags (Dixie Union - Tempo, by Gone West) Trained by Michael Matz
He looked really, really good on Saturday when he breezed five furlongs in :59 4/5 over a very muddy track while galloping out in terrific fashion. He cannot be coming into the race any better, and I may end up picking him to win the race if he draws a good post position.
3. Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) Trained by Patrick Byrne
I will admit that I wasn't quite sure why Patrick Byrne chose to give him his final work nine days before the race, but it's beginning to look like one of the smartest moves any trainer has made this year along the Derby trail. By working him a stiff five furlongs on April 26th, he was able to breeze his colt over a fast track -- avoiding the heavy rain that has hit Florida over the last couple of days. He ships to Churchill on Tuesday.
4. Bodemeister (Empire Maker - Untouched Talent, by Storm Cat) Trained by Bob Baffert
Like Union Rags, he could not have looked any better in his final workout, as Bodemeister breezed five furlongs in :59 3/5 over a muddy track that he seemed to handle very well. Obviously, he's got a lot to overcome -- the Apollo Curse, for one, and to a lesser extent, his own running style -- but this may be a year in which his raw talent is able to trump everything else.
5. Dullahan (Even the Score - Mining My Own, by Smart Strike) Trained by Dale Romans
On April 28th, he turned in what was described as a "maintenance work", going five furlongs in 1:01 1/5. He probably didn't need to go any faster, seeing that he won the Blue Grass Stakes just two weeks ago, but it's worth mentioning that his final breeze prior to the Blue Grass was a stiff five furlongs in :57 2/5.
6. Gemologist (Tiznow - Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Wood Memorial winner breezed four furlongs in :50.39 over a muddy track this morning at Palm Meadows Training Center. On the surface, it didn't appear to be a very fast time, but it was actually the quickest breeze of the day at that distance. His training has been thrown off just a bit due to poor weather in Florida, but he didn't really need to turn in a serious breeze today and it shouldn't affect him. Like Take Charge Indy, he ships to Churchill on Tuesday.
7. I'll Have Another (Flower Alley - Arch's Gal Edith, by Arch) Trained by Doug O'Neill
The fact that he underwent shock wave therapy on his back a few days ago had me a little concerned, but he came right back and breezed six furlongs in an excellent 1:13 4/5 on April 27th, so I'm not too worried now. He arrived at Churchill on Saturday, but he'll probably just gallop up to the Derby.
8. Alpha (Bernardini - Munnaya, by Nijinsky II) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
He has apparently overcome the issues that modified his training schedule, for he looked terrific breezing five furlongs in a bullet :59.54 at the Belmont Park training track yesterday. He is expected to arrive at Churchill Downs sometime tomorrow, where he will gallop up to the Derby. It's looking like Rajiv Maragh, who rode him in the workout, will ride him in the Derby.
9. Hansen (Tapit - Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat) Trained by Michael Maker
He turned in a really nice workout in company with Derby Kitten on Saturday, going five furlongs in 1:01 1/5 while being asked to run inside of his workmate toward the end of the work. It's interesting to note that he has been training at the Churchill training track, rather than at Churchill Downs itself.
10. Went the Day Well (Proud Citizen - Tiz Maie's Day, by Tiznow) Trained by Graham Motion
On Saturday, he worked five furlongs at Churchill Downs while wearing blinkers for the first time and really could not have looked much better. Breezing in company with Crimson China, he went the distance in 1:01 flat, a considerably quicker work than the ones he has recorded in the past. He seems to like the Churchill Downs dirt, and it's just possible that we might see a Team Valor repeat.
11. Mark Valeski (Proud Citizen - Pocho's Dream Girl, by Fortunate Prospect) Trained by Larry Jones
Whether or not he runs in the Derby is hinged on how well he works at Churchill Downs tomorrow. He seems to be somewhat forgotten, with all the discussion over the favorite's workouts dominating the headlines, but he really seems to be coming into this race in good fashion, and so long as he works well tomorrow, it should set him up for a peak effort on Saturday.
12. El Padrino (Pulpit - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher
I decided to drop him a couple of spots following the very slow :53.34 half-mile breeze this morning at Palm Meadows Training Center, the co-slowest workout of the day. Granted, the work did come over a slow, muddy track, but this is a colt that looked simply fabulous winning an allowance race in the slop earlier this year, and I would have liked to have seen something a bit quicker from this colt. After all, Gemologist's workout over the same track on the same day was nearly three seconds quicker.
Other Contenders
Daddy Long Legs
Daddy Nose Best
Done Talking
Liaison
Optimizer
Prospective
Rousing Sermon
Sabercat
Trinniberg
(Note: Be sure to check out our Kentucky Derby Handicapping Contest, in which one lucky handicapper will win a free copy of "The 10 Best Kentucky Derbies," published by Eclipse Press. Read the details here!)
-Keelerman
Sunday, April 29, 2012
Derby Contender Profile: WENT THE DAY WELL
Owner: Team Valor International and Mark Ford
Trainer: Graham Motion
Breeder: James Patrick Delaney
Expected Derby Jockey: John Velazquez
RACE RECORD
Age 3
1st Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III)
1st Maiden Special Weight
4th Maiden Special Weight
Age 2
2nd Maiden Weight for Age
2nd Maiden Weight for Age
PEDIGREE
LAST WORKOUT
April 28th: 5f in 1:01 at Churchill Downs
To read what I have written about Went the Day Well in the past, click here.
Trainer: Graham Motion
Breeder: James Patrick Delaney
Expected Derby Jockey: John Velazquez
RACE RECORD
Age 3
1st Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III)
1st Maiden Special Weight
4th Maiden Special Weight
Age 2
2nd Maiden Weight for Age
2nd Maiden Weight for Age
PEDIGREE
| Gone West | ||
| Proud Citizen | ||
| Drums of Freedom | ||
| Went the Day Well | ||
| Tiznow | ||
| Tiz Maie's Day | ||
| Sweet Roberta |
LAST WORKOUT
April 28th: 5f in 1:01 at Churchill Downs
To read what I have written about Went the Day Well in the past, click here.
Saturday, April 28, 2012
KENTUCKY DERBY COUNTDOWN -- April 28th, 2012
Welcome to the first in a series of seven posts covering the workouts, general training, other such updates regarding the leading Derby contenders leading up to the Kentucky Derby on May 5th. Hopefully, we shall uncover a few clues that will help us to try and discover the Derby winner before he crosses the finish line! :)
Today's post will give a brief (alphabetical) overview of the top twenty-one Derby contenders, discussing their recent workouts and where they are based at this time, in addition to any other tidbits deemed noteworthy. Enjoy!
Today's post will give a brief (alphabetical) overview of the top twenty-one Derby contenders, discussing their recent workouts and where they are based at this time, in addition to any other tidbits deemed noteworthy. Enjoy!
Monday, April 23, 2012
KEELERMAN'S TOP TWELVE -- April 23rd, 2012
(Due to the fact that the Derby is rapidly approaching, I have decided to shorten this week's Top Twenty to a mere Top Twelve. Enjoy!)
1. Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway - Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer) Trained by Mike Harrington
Let the workouts begin! On April 17th, Creative Cause turned in his next-to-last workout for the Derby, going five-eighths of a mile in an easy 1:01 1/5 at Hollywood Park. It certainly wasn't the quickest of moves, but we don't want him peaking too soon. His final breeze will come at Churchill Downs next weekend, and whether or not he retains this top spot all the way to the Derby depends on how good a workout it is.
2. Union Rags (Dixie Union - Tempo, by Gone West) Trained by Michael Matz
This colt is really getting serious in his training now, as he worked a half-mile work in :47 2/5 on April 20th at Keeneland, a much sharper breeze than anything he turned in leading up to the Florida Derby. One more work is on the agenda, and it will come at Churchill Downs. So long as it's a good, stiff, quick breeze, I might just end up putting him back on top.
3. Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) Trained by Patrick Byrne
Unlike many of the horses on this list, this colt will not breeze at Churchill Downs prior to the Derby; he ships in too late for that. Instead, he will record his final works at Palm Meadows Training Center, where he breezed five furlongs 1:01.66 on April 19th. Although he did win the Florida Derby in wire-to-wire fashion, I don't envision him being part of the pace on the first Saturday in May. Rather, I expect to see him rating off of the early pace while racing along the rail, much like Super Saver did in 2010. So long as he gets a clear run from there, he should be right there in the homestretch.
4. Bodemeister (Empire Maker - Untouched Talent, by Storm Cat) Trained by Bob Baffert
He has arrived at Churchill Downs and has been galloping; his first workout over the track is scheduled to come tomorrow. The key with this colt is to keep him from peaking too soon -- hopefully, he didn't leave his best effort in Arkansas. But seeing that he is lightly raced, he should be okay. The presence of two-time stakes winning sprinter Trinniberg will, in my opinion, help this colt's chances. It will give him a speedy front-runner to rate behind, so that he won't have to set the pace himself. After all, winning the Derby in gate-to-wire fashion is not an easy thing to do.
5. Dullahan (Even the Score - Mining My Own, by Smart Strike) Trained by Dale Romans
The more I think about his Blue Grass performance the more I like it. So why do I still have him down here in position number five? I'm afraid I don't know. I could put him up into the second spot if I wanted to, and I may if he trains well leading up to the Derby. The fact that he did finish fourth in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) is a plus in my opinion, because it proves that he can handle the Churchill dirt at least pretty well. And he did finish ahead of Take Charge Indy, Alpha, Daddy Long Legs, Prospective, and Optimizer that day.
6. Gemologist (Tiznow - Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Now, I may be a bit confused as to why I have Dullahan down in position number five, but I simply cannot comprehend why I have Gemologist -- an undefeated Wood Memorial winner from the barn of Todd Pletcher with a pair of wins at Churchill Downs -- down here in spot number six. That is how talented this year's Derby field is. There is so little seperating the top eight or nine contenders that you could put any one of them at the top and feel good about your pick. As for this colt in particular, he -- like Take Charge Indy -- will do all of his serious training at Palm Meadows, where he breezed five furlongs in 1:00.81 on April 20th.
7. I'll Have Another (Flower Alley - Arch's Gal Edith, by Arch) Trained by Doug O'Neill
Try and figure this one out. The colt that beat my #1 pick in the Santa Anita Derby is down here in spot number seven. Further proof of how talented these colts are. This one has been breezing longer distances than most, or all, of the other Derby contenders, which is something I really like. On April 19th, he went six furlongs in 1:13 3/5, and I actually wouldn't be surprised if he goes seven furlongs next time, for that is what he did prior to his Santa Anita Derby victory.
8. Alpha (Bernardini - Munnaya, by Nijinsky II) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
I decided to drop him one spot this week due to the fact that his entire Derby schedule has been goofed up due to infected cuts suffered as a result of clipping heels in the Wood Memorial. Instead of having two breezes at Churchill Downs prior to the Derby, he will breeze only once, and he will do it at Belmont Park. And furthermore, his regular rider Ramon Dominguez is going to stick with Hansen in the Derby, meaning that this colt will have to find a new jockey to boot. But at least he's back to galloping.
9. Hansen (Tapit - Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat) Trained by Michael Maker
As mentioned above, he will retain the services of regular rider Ramon Dominguez in the Kentucky Derby. Like Bodemeister, I think that the presence of Trinniberg could help Hansen's chances immensely, giving him a front-runner to rate behind; to settle behind; to tackle on the far turn. He should be back on the work tab before too long.
10. El Padrino (Pulpit - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He has found himself a Derby rider in Rafael Bejarano, who lost his previous mount Secret Circle due to injury. This colt seems to have been forgotten a bit in all the hype over the top contenders, but the fact is that his Florida Derby effort wasn't really all that bad, and I think he's training as well as anyone else. After all, he breezed five furlongs in 1:00.56 at Palm Meadows on the same day as Gemologist, getting the distance in slightly faster time. Like his stablemate, he won't get a chance to breeze at Churchill, but at least we know that he's got the pedigree and class to be a contender.
11. Went the Day Well (Proud Citizen - Tiz Maie's Day, by Tiznow) Trained by Graham Motion
Breezed six furlongs in company with Crimson China on April 21st at Keeneland, going a moderate six furlongs in 1:14 2/5. It was by no means a quit breeze, but then again, this colt has never been much of a work horse -- his final workout prior to his Spiral Stakes victory was five furlongs in 1:01.92. We should learn a great deal more about this colt when he breezes at Churchill Downs sometime during the next week.
12. Mark Valeski (Proud Citizen - Pocho's Dream Girl, by Fortunate Prospect) Trained by Larry Jones
It's very difficult to decide which horse to include in this final spot. I went back and forth and back and forth between Daddy Nose Best and Mark Valeski, finally giving the nod to the latter colt due to the fact that he breezed five furlongs in a sharp :59 3/5 at Churchill Downs this morning. He seems to have come out of the Louisiana Derby in good fashion, which is certainly nice to see. He's got one more work left on the agenda, and how good a breeze it is will determine whether he retains this twelfth position, drops a bit, or moves up. I think he'll move up.
Other Notable Contenders
Daddy Long Legs
Daddy Nose Best
Done Talking
Liaison
Optimizer
Prospective
Rousing Sermon
Sabercat
Trinniberg
-Keelerman
1. Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway - Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer) Trained by Mike Harrington
Let the workouts begin! On April 17th, Creative Cause turned in his next-to-last workout for the Derby, going five-eighths of a mile in an easy 1:01 1/5 at Hollywood Park. It certainly wasn't the quickest of moves, but we don't want him peaking too soon. His final breeze will come at Churchill Downs next weekend, and whether or not he retains this top spot all the way to the Derby depends on how good a workout it is.
2. Union Rags (Dixie Union - Tempo, by Gone West) Trained by Michael Matz
This colt is really getting serious in his training now, as he worked a half-mile work in :47 2/5 on April 20th at Keeneland, a much sharper breeze than anything he turned in leading up to the Florida Derby. One more work is on the agenda, and it will come at Churchill Downs. So long as it's a good, stiff, quick breeze, I might just end up putting him back on top.
3. Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) Trained by Patrick Byrne
Unlike many of the horses on this list, this colt will not breeze at Churchill Downs prior to the Derby; he ships in too late for that. Instead, he will record his final works at Palm Meadows Training Center, where he breezed five furlongs 1:01.66 on April 19th. Although he did win the Florida Derby in wire-to-wire fashion, I don't envision him being part of the pace on the first Saturday in May. Rather, I expect to see him rating off of the early pace while racing along the rail, much like Super Saver did in 2010. So long as he gets a clear run from there, he should be right there in the homestretch.
4. Bodemeister (Empire Maker - Untouched Talent, by Storm Cat) Trained by Bob Baffert
He has arrived at Churchill Downs and has been galloping; his first workout over the track is scheduled to come tomorrow. The key with this colt is to keep him from peaking too soon -- hopefully, he didn't leave his best effort in Arkansas. But seeing that he is lightly raced, he should be okay. The presence of two-time stakes winning sprinter Trinniberg will, in my opinion, help this colt's chances. It will give him a speedy front-runner to rate behind, so that he won't have to set the pace himself. After all, winning the Derby in gate-to-wire fashion is not an easy thing to do.
5. Dullahan (Even the Score - Mining My Own, by Smart Strike) Trained by Dale Romans
The more I think about his Blue Grass performance the more I like it. So why do I still have him down here in position number five? I'm afraid I don't know. I could put him up into the second spot if I wanted to, and I may if he trains well leading up to the Derby. The fact that he did finish fourth in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) is a plus in my opinion, because it proves that he can handle the Churchill dirt at least pretty well. And he did finish ahead of Take Charge Indy, Alpha, Daddy Long Legs, Prospective, and Optimizer that day.
6. Gemologist (Tiznow - Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Now, I may be a bit confused as to why I have Dullahan down in position number five, but I simply cannot comprehend why I have Gemologist -- an undefeated Wood Memorial winner from the barn of Todd Pletcher with a pair of wins at Churchill Downs -- down here in spot number six. That is how talented this year's Derby field is. There is so little seperating the top eight or nine contenders that you could put any one of them at the top and feel good about your pick. As for this colt in particular, he -- like Take Charge Indy -- will do all of his serious training at Palm Meadows, where he breezed five furlongs in 1:00.81 on April 20th.
7. I'll Have Another (Flower Alley - Arch's Gal Edith, by Arch) Trained by Doug O'Neill
Try and figure this one out. The colt that beat my #1 pick in the Santa Anita Derby is down here in spot number seven. Further proof of how talented these colts are. This one has been breezing longer distances than most, or all, of the other Derby contenders, which is something I really like. On April 19th, he went six furlongs in 1:13 3/5, and I actually wouldn't be surprised if he goes seven furlongs next time, for that is what he did prior to his Santa Anita Derby victory.
8. Alpha (Bernardini - Munnaya, by Nijinsky II) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
I decided to drop him one spot this week due to the fact that his entire Derby schedule has been goofed up due to infected cuts suffered as a result of clipping heels in the Wood Memorial. Instead of having two breezes at Churchill Downs prior to the Derby, he will breeze only once, and he will do it at Belmont Park. And furthermore, his regular rider Ramon Dominguez is going to stick with Hansen in the Derby, meaning that this colt will have to find a new jockey to boot. But at least he's back to galloping.
9. Hansen (Tapit - Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat) Trained by Michael Maker
As mentioned above, he will retain the services of regular rider Ramon Dominguez in the Kentucky Derby. Like Bodemeister, I think that the presence of Trinniberg could help Hansen's chances immensely, giving him a front-runner to rate behind; to settle behind; to tackle on the far turn. He should be back on the work tab before too long.
10. El Padrino (Pulpit - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He has found himself a Derby rider in Rafael Bejarano, who lost his previous mount Secret Circle due to injury. This colt seems to have been forgotten a bit in all the hype over the top contenders, but the fact is that his Florida Derby effort wasn't really all that bad, and I think he's training as well as anyone else. After all, he breezed five furlongs in 1:00.56 at Palm Meadows on the same day as Gemologist, getting the distance in slightly faster time. Like his stablemate, he won't get a chance to breeze at Churchill, but at least we know that he's got the pedigree and class to be a contender.
11. Went the Day Well (Proud Citizen - Tiz Maie's Day, by Tiznow) Trained by Graham Motion
Breezed six furlongs in company with Crimson China on April 21st at Keeneland, going a moderate six furlongs in 1:14 2/5. It was by no means a quit breeze, but then again, this colt has never been much of a work horse -- his final workout prior to his Spiral Stakes victory was five furlongs in 1:01.92. We should learn a great deal more about this colt when he breezes at Churchill Downs sometime during the next week.
12. Mark Valeski (Proud Citizen - Pocho's Dream Girl, by Fortunate Prospect) Trained by Larry Jones
It's very difficult to decide which horse to include in this final spot. I went back and forth and back and forth between Daddy Nose Best and Mark Valeski, finally giving the nod to the latter colt due to the fact that he breezed five furlongs in a sharp :59 3/5 at Churchill Downs this morning. He seems to have come out of the Louisiana Derby in good fashion, which is certainly nice to see. He's got one more work left on the agenda, and how good a breeze it is will determine whether he retains this twelfth position, drops a bit, or moves up. I think he'll move up.
Other Notable Contenders
Daddy Long Legs
Daddy Nose Best
Done Talking
Liaison
Optimizer
Prospective
Rousing Sermon
Sabercat
Trinniberg
-Keelerman
Monday, April 16, 2012
KEELERMAN'S TOP TWENTY -- April 16th, 2012
1. Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway - Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer) Trained by Mike Harrington
He's going to have to fight for the top spot in the weeks leading up to the Derby, because impressive performances by Bodemeister and Dullahan -- among others -- could move them up my list if they train well at Churchill Downs. But let's remember that this colt beat Bodemeister in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) back on March 10th. The latter's subsequent victory in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I) says something about the amount of Derby talent in California this year.
2. Union Rags (Dixie Union - Tempo, by Gone West) Trained by Michael Matz
Breezed a half mile in :48 2/5 at Palm Meadows on April 12th, his first breeze since the Florida Derby. Interestingly, it will be his final workout in Florida, for he is shipping to Kentucky earlier than expected. There, he will likely train at Keeneland before heading to Churchill Downs for his final preparation.
He's going to have to fight for the top spot in the weeks leading up to the Derby, because impressive performances by Bodemeister and Dullahan -- among others -- could move them up my list if they train well at Churchill Downs. But let's remember that this colt beat Bodemeister in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) back on March 10th. The latter's subsequent victory in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I) says something about the amount of Derby talent in California this year.
2. Union Rags (Dixie Union - Tempo, by Gone West) Trained by Michael Matz
Breezed a half mile in :48 2/5 at Palm Meadows on April 12th, his first breeze since the Florida Derby. Interestingly, it will be his final workout in Florida, for he is shipping to Kentucky earlier than expected. There, he will likely train at Keeneland before heading to Churchill Downs for his final preparation.
Friday, March 30, 2012
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN -- March 30th, 2012
A pair of major Kentucky Derby prep races were run last weekend, and a pair of colts stamped themselves as colts to watch heading to Louisville. Here are my recaps of last week's major racing action, including the Sunland Derby (gr. III) and the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III). Enjoy!
Major Stakes Recaps
Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III)
During the coming weeks, we will undoubtedly be hearing a lot of comparisons between 2011 Vinery Spiral Stakes winner Animal Kingdom -- who went on to win the Kentucky Derby -- and the 2012 winner Went the Day Well, who races for the same connections and appears to be a similar type of runner.
First off, let me say that while Went the Day Well's final time may not have been anything particularly impressive, the fact that he was able to sit within two lengths of a :46.98-second half-mile was indeed worthy of note. And despite this, he still managed to come home his final eighth in :13.26 -- a tenth of a second faster than Animal Kingdom's final eighth of :13.36 in the 2011 Spiral.
But unlike Animal Kingdom, who went into the 2011 Derby off of no further prep races, it sounds like Went the Day Well may run in the Lexington Stakes (gr. II) two weeks before the Derby, in an effort to try and get him a bit more experience before sending him to Louisville. If he does run in the Lexington, Went the Day Well will likely face the horse he defeated in the Spiral, Holiday Promise, who actually ran very well himself and could potentially turn the tables under the right conditions.
Sunland Derby (gr. III)
It may have come as a bit of surprise, but Daddy Nose Best -- a colt that almost no one considered a Derby contender at the start of the year -- has now won two straight graded Derby prep races, including the Sunland Derby (gr. III) last Sunday at Sunland Park. The $800,000 race had drawn a very talented field, including Southwest Stakes (gr. III) winner Castaway and the highly promising maiden winner Ender Knievel.
However, when those two hooked up in a blazing speed duel, Daddy Nose Best took advantage of the situation and rallied for victory. But it wasn't as easy as one might think. Isn't He Clever, a perfect 2-for-2 over the Sunland strip, inherited the lead when the front-runners tired and moved effortlessly into the lead rounding the far turn. In the stretch, he held a commanding lead over the field and appeared to be on his way to an easy victory. But Daddy Nose Best was nevertheless able to get up in time, closing his final eighth in the vicinity of :12 1/5 to win by three-quarters of a length. For his effort, he earned one of the largest two-turn Beyer speed figures earned by a three-year-old this year, and has stamped himself as Steve Asmussen's biggest hopeful for the Kentucky Derby.
Sunland Park Oaks
Last year, owner Peachtree Stable, trainer Bob Baffert, and jockey Martin Garcia won the Sunland Park Oaks with Plum Pretty, who went on to win the Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) six weeks later. It appears as though lightning may strike twice, for those same connections won the 2012 Sunland Park Oaks with another highly promising filly in Princess Arabella, who defeated her rivals by eight lengths to stamp herself as one of the Kentucky Oaks favorites.
There are many similarities between the two fillies. Both have shown excellent front-running speed, which they use to run their rivals off their feet early and coast away late. Plum Pretty definitely set a faster pace in her edition of the Sunland Park Oaks, running her opening half-mile in :46.83 compared to Princess Arabella's :47.24 -- but both closed their final five-sixteenths in the identical time of :31.95. Overall, I would say that Plum Pretty's victory was probably a slightly stronger effort than Princess Arabella's, but I do believe that Princess Arabella has the talent to give her connections a second straight win in the Kentucky Oaks.
Other Race Recaps
http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/03/bourbon-courage-wins-fair-grounds.html
Two starts, two hugely impressive victories. That just about sums up Bourbon Courage's career to date. The Fair Grounds sensation has displayed both the ability to run fast early and turn back the closers and the ability to rate well off the pace and explode in the stretch. Obviously, he hasn't faced much competition of note yet, and he has never run beyond six furlongs, but he's being pointed toward the Derby Trial (gr. III) one week before the Kentucky Derby, and a victory in that race could potentially send him on his way to a start in the Preakness Stakes.
http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/03/flashy-dresser-wins-rushaway-stakes.html
Flashy Dresser may have earned himself a trip to the Preakness Stakes with his strong victory in Turfway's Rushaway Stakes, closing three-wide to win by a half-length over Gung Ho following a lengthy stretch duel. What was particularly impressive was that it was only his second career start, and Gung Ho is a proven stakes winner -- not the kind of colt that one catches easily. Both colts look ready to improve off of this race, and it will be interesting to see how they perform further down the road.
http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/03/chips-all-in-wins-pasadena-stakes.html
Chips All In is clearly a better horse on turf than on dirt. Following a terribly disappointing effort in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) over the Santa Anita main track, Chips All In rebounded sharply to take Santa Anita's Pasadena Stakes over the turf in game fashion, closing his final quarter mile in :22.90 to win by a neck over a good colt in Tones. It would appear as though Chips All In is going to be a major force in the biggest turf races for three-year-olds, especially at his seemingly favorite distance of one-mile.
http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/03/three-year-old-to-watch-holy-candy.html
There are not enough adjectives to describe how much I liked Holy Candy's performance in this race. That was a talented Bob Baffert-trained runner that he caught. A talented Bob Baffert-trained runner that had escaped with an unbelievably slow pace, considering the speed of the Santa Anita main track. It was impossible to imagine that Holy Candy could possibly catch the runaway leader, for he would have had to close his final quarter in something like :22 and change, but he was somehow able to do just that. His effort has earned him a start in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) on April 14th, where he will get a chance to pick up enough graded earnings to make the Kentucky Derby field.
A couple of other notable performances were turned in last week by Right to Vote and Awesome Vision. The first-mentioned colt won a 6-1/2 furlong allowance race at Gulfstream Park in what was his first start since finishing third to Union Rags and Alpha in last year's Champagne Stakes (gr. I). Reserved just off of the early pace by jockey Alex Solis, Right to Vote moved up to take over the lead in the stretch and gamely withstood a late run from Scaramagna to win by a head in 1:16.80. He looks stakes-bound to me.
As for Awesome Vision, he looked pretty good himself winning a one-mile allowance race at Aqueduct, catching a talented runner in Live for Today to win by 1 1/4 lengths. Don't let the small margin of victory deceive you. Live for Today finished, in turn, 10 3/4 lengths clear of the third-place finisher. And Awesome Vision's final quarter of :24.51 was certainly nothing to sneeze at. Like Right to Vote, don't be surprised if Awesome Vision's next start comes in stakes company -- perhaps in the Jerome Stakes (gr. II) here at Aqueduct on April 21st.
-Keelerman
Major Stakes Recaps
Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III)
During the coming weeks, we will undoubtedly be hearing a lot of comparisons between 2011 Vinery Spiral Stakes winner Animal Kingdom -- who went on to win the Kentucky Derby -- and the 2012 winner Went the Day Well, who races for the same connections and appears to be a similar type of runner.
First off, let me say that while Went the Day Well's final time may not have been anything particularly impressive, the fact that he was able to sit within two lengths of a :46.98-second half-mile was indeed worthy of note. And despite this, he still managed to come home his final eighth in :13.26 -- a tenth of a second faster than Animal Kingdom's final eighth of :13.36 in the 2011 Spiral.
But unlike Animal Kingdom, who went into the 2011 Derby off of no further prep races, it sounds like Went the Day Well may run in the Lexington Stakes (gr. II) two weeks before the Derby, in an effort to try and get him a bit more experience before sending him to Louisville. If he does run in the Lexington, Went the Day Well will likely face the horse he defeated in the Spiral, Holiday Promise, who actually ran very well himself and could potentially turn the tables under the right conditions.
Sunland Derby (gr. III)
It may have come as a bit of surprise, but Daddy Nose Best -- a colt that almost no one considered a Derby contender at the start of the year -- has now won two straight graded Derby prep races, including the Sunland Derby (gr. III) last Sunday at Sunland Park. The $800,000 race had drawn a very talented field, including Southwest Stakes (gr. III) winner Castaway and the highly promising maiden winner Ender Knievel.
However, when those two hooked up in a blazing speed duel, Daddy Nose Best took advantage of the situation and rallied for victory. But it wasn't as easy as one might think. Isn't He Clever, a perfect 2-for-2 over the Sunland strip, inherited the lead when the front-runners tired and moved effortlessly into the lead rounding the far turn. In the stretch, he held a commanding lead over the field and appeared to be on his way to an easy victory. But Daddy Nose Best was nevertheless able to get up in time, closing his final eighth in the vicinity of :12 1/5 to win by three-quarters of a length. For his effort, he earned one of the largest two-turn Beyer speed figures earned by a three-year-old this year, and has stamped himself as Steve Asmussen's biggest hopeful for the Kentucky Derby.
Sunland Park Oaks
Last year, owner Peachtree Stable, trainer Bob Baffert, and jockey Martin Garcia won the Sunland Park Oaks with Plum Pretty, who went on to win the Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) six weeks later. It appears as though lightning may strike twice, for those same connections won the 2012 Sunland Park Oaks with another highly promising filly in Princess Arabella, who defeated her rivals by eight lengths to stamp herself as one of the Kentucky Oaks favorites.
There are many similarities between the two fillies. Both have shown excellent front-running speed, which they use to run their rivals off their feet early and coast away late. Plum Pretty definitely set a faster pace in her edition of the Sunland Park Oaks, running her opening half-mile in :46.83 compared to Princess Arabella's :47.24 -- but both closed their final five-sixteenths in the identical time of :31.95. Overall, I would say that Plum Pretty's victory was probably a slightly stronger effort than Princess Arabella's, but I do believe that Princess Arabella has the talent to give her connections a second straight win in the Kentucky Oaks.
Other Race Recaps
http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/03/bourbon-courage-wins-fair-grounds.html
Two starts, two hugely impressive victories. That just about sums up Bourbon Courage's career to date. The Fair Grounds sensation has displayed both the ability to run fast early and turn back the closers and the ability to rate well off the pace and explode in the stretch. Obviously, he hasn't faced much competition of note yet, and he has never run beyond six furlongs, but he's being pointed toward the Derby Trial (gr. III) one week before the Kentucky Derby, and a victory in that race could potentially send him on his way to a start in the Preakness Stakes.
http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/03/flashy-dresser-wins-rushaway-stakes.html
Flashy Dresser may have earned himself a trip to the Preakness Stakes with his strong victory in Turfway's Rushaway Stakes, closing three-wide to win by a half-length over Gung Ho following a lengthy stretch duel. What was particularly impressive was that it was only his second career start, and Gung Ho is a proven stakes winner -- not the kind of colt that one catches easily. Both colts look ready to improve off of this race, and it will be interesting to see how they perform further down the road.
http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/03/chips-all-in-wins-pasadena-stakes.html
Chips All In is clearly a better horse on turf than on dirt. Following a terribly disappointing effort in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) over the Santa Anita main track, Chips All In rebounded sharply to take Santa Anita's Pasadena Stakes over the turf in game fashion, closing his final quarter mile in :22.90 to win by a neck over a good colt in Tones. It would appear as though Chips All In is going to be a major force in the biggest turf races for three-year-olds, especially at his seemingly favorite distance of one-mile.
http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/03/three-year-old-to-watch-holy-candy.html
There are not enough adjectives to describe how much I liked Holy Candy's performance in this race. That was a talented Bob Baffert-trained runner that he caught. A talented Bob Baffert-trained runner that had escaped with an unbelievably slow pace, considering the speed of the Santa Anita main track. It was impossible to imagine that Holy Candy could possibly catch the runaway leader, for he would have had to close his final quarter in something like :22 and change, but he was somehow able to do just that. His effort has earned him a start in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) on April 14th, where he will get a chance to pick up enough graded earnings to make the Kentucky Derby field.
A couple of other notable performances were turned in last week by Right to Vote and Awesome Vision. The first-mentioned colt won a 6-1/2 furlong allowance race at Gulfstream Park in what was his first start since finishing third to Union Rags and Alpha in last year's Champagne Stakes (gr. I). Reserved just off of the early pace by jockey Alex Solis, Right to Vote moved up to take over the lead in the stretch and gamely withstood a late run from Scaramagna to win by a head in 1:16.80. He looks stakes-bound to me.
As for Awesome Vision, he looked pretty good himself winning a one-mile allowance race at Aqueduct, catching a talented runner in Live for Today to win by 1 1/4 lengths. Don't let the small margin of victory deceive you. Live for Today finished, in turn, 10 3/4 lengths clear of the third-place finisher. And Awesome Vision's final quarter of :24.51 was certainly nothing to sneeze at. Like Right to Vote, don't be surprised if Awesome Vision's next start comes in stakes company -- perhaps in the Jerome Stakes (gr. II) here at Aqueduct on April 21st.
-Keelerman
Saturday, March 24, 2012
WENT THE DAY WELL WINS THE VINERY SPIRAL STAKES!
Went the Day Well gave trainer Graham Motion and Team Valor International their second straight win in the $500,000 Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III), turning back a bid from Holiday Promise to win the race by three and a half lengths.
Ridden to victory by John Velazquez, the son of Proud Citizen got off to a good beginning and settled into the fourth position early on as favored Heavy Breathing sat a challenging pace of :23.10 and :46.98 while being pressured by Ill Conceived. Coach Royal, Tizanexpense, and Red Jack were also close to the pace, while Handsome Mike -- who was expected to be on or near the lead -- was the early trailer.
Ridden to victory by John Velazquez, the son of Proud Citizen got off to a good beginning and settled into the fourth position early on as favored Heavy Breathing sat a challenging pace of :23.10 and :46.98 while being pressured by Ill Conceived. Coach Royal, Tizanexpense, and Red Jack were also close to the pace, while Handsome Mike -- who was expected to be on or near the lead -- was the early trailer.
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN -- March 24th, 2012
It's hard to believe that the Kentucky Derby is only six weeks away -- and it's almost as hard to believe that the first of the final Derby prep races are being run this weekend. Today's post shall cover Saturday's major racing action, including Turfway's Vinery Spiral Stakes (gr. III), which was won last year by Animal Kingdom en route to his victory in the Kentucky Derby. Tomorrow, I shall discuss Sunday's racing, including the $800,000 Sunland Derby (gr. III) at Sunland Park. Enjoy!
Vinery Spiral Stakes (gr. III)
Nine Furlongs on the Turfway Park synthetic track
The morning line favorite at 3-1 is Heavy Breathing, an up-and-coming young runner from the barn of Todd Pletcher. The son of Giant's Causeway is undefeated in two starts, having broken his maiden impressively at Gulfstream before winning a nine-furlong allowance race, also at Gulfstream. The talent is clearly there, and he will be retaining the services of top jockey Javier Castellano, but this will be his first start over a synthetic track and one must wonder how well he will take to it.
If Heavy Breathing doesn't care for the track, then Went the Day Well and Handsome Mike should be right there at the finish. The first-mentioned colt, owned by Team Valor International, began his career in Europe, where he finished second in a pair of maiden races. He was then purchased by Team Valor and brought to the United States, where he finished fourth in his first start here before breaking his maiden last time out in excellent fashion going a mile and a sixteenth at Gulfstream Park. With John Velazquez in the saddle, expect this colt to get a great trip while coming from mid-pack.
As for Handsome Mike, he has been facing some of the best colts that California has to offer, finishing seventh (beaten just 2 3/4 lengths) in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I), fourth in the Sham Stakes (gr. III), and third in the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III). It would appear as though he just isn't good enough to defeat the best colts in California, but he should find this field more suited to his ability; in fact, his Beyer speed figures pretty much tower over those of his rivals in this spot. I love the fact that Joel Rosario will be flying here from California to ride this colt. To me, that says something about this horse's ability.
Ill Conceived and Mr. Prankster, the second- and fourth-place finishers, respectively, in last month's John Battaglia Memorial Stakes here at Turfway, should also be major contenders. Ill Conceived set the pace that day before losing the lead to a quality colt in State of Play, but was actually closing the gap again at the finish and might have won if the race had been slightly longer. On the other hand, he was allowed to set a very, very slow pace that day of :49.83 and 1:14.71, which obviously left him with something in the tank for the finish.
Actually, that pace may have been the reason why Mr. Prankster wound up fourth. The promising colt has previously won the two prep races for the John Battaglia -- the Turfway Prevue Stakes and the WEBN Stakes -- in highly impressive fashion. But the late-running colt had very quick paces to chase in those races, actually three to four seconds faster than he did in the John Battaglia. Seeing that the pace should be much quicker today, I would think that Mr. Prankster will rebound in good fashion.
Russian Greek, Stealcase, and Holiday Promise are going to be longer prices, but may have just as good a chance at winning as the favorites. Russian Greek looked good earlier this year when he won the California Derby with a strong late run. However, he failed to menace in his last start, the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III), where he wound up a soundly beaten fifth. But he is taking a bit of a class drop here, and seeing that he has already has a stakes victory over a synthetic track, he could be coming on strongly at the finish to secure a major piece of the purse. The addition of blinkers should also help his chances.
Stealcase has won only one of his four starts to date, and is coming off of a 10 3/4-length defeat in the Gotham Stakes (gr. III), but several things make me think that he could be a major contender here. For one thing, he will be wearing blinkers for the first time -- and his trainer, Mike Casse, wins at a 25% rate under those circumstances. Furthermore, prior to the Gotham, this colt ran in a pair of potentially key maiden races. On December 24th, he finished fourth in a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream behind Thunder Moccasin, Ender Knievel, and Panthro, all of whom came back to win their next starts. Then, on January 19th, Stealcase broke his maiden over a colt named Windersurfer, who also came back to win his next race. Based on these factors, as well as a few others, I really think this colt could be something special.
Holiday Promise, the other Todd Pletcher-trainee in this race, does not have the same flashy record as his stablemate, but could nevertheless be in the mix. He's only won once from five starts, that victory coming last November at Laurel Park, but he's run well enough since then to suggest that he could be a threat from off the pace. I particularly liked his fourth-place effort two starts back against subsequent stakes winner Raconteur, where he closed strongly late from off the pace to be beaten just 1 3/4 lengths in a one-mile and seventy-yard allowance race.
The longshots in this field are Red Jack, All Squared Away, Coach Royal, and Tizanexpense. Red Jack, from the barn of D. Wayne Lukas, has only a single victory from nine starts, most recently finishing third in a claiming race at Oaklawn Park. All Squared Away is coming off of a second-place finish in a starter allowance race, having previously finished seventh in the El Camino Real Derby. Coach Royal has never won a race, despite having raced eight times, but is coming off of a pair of half-length defeats in nine-furlong turf maiden special weights at Gulfstream Park. Seeing that he has seven route races under his belt already, there's no denying that he has the experience to be a contender here, but the bigger question is whether or not he is talented enough. As for Tizanexpense, he won a pair of races at Fair Grounds last winter, but is coming off of a seventh-place finish in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II), where he was beaten eleven lengths. But to be perfectly honest, he didn't get the best of trips that day, and he could certainly be a contender here if doesn't get hung wide around the first turn.
So there you have it -- the twelve-horse Spiral Stakes, in which no horse seems to really stand out and every one of them has at least a moderate chance at hitting the board. I really have no idea who to pick, but since this is one of contest races for the Triple Crown Handicapping Contest between J.R. and I, here are our selections:
Keelerman
1 Handsome Mike
2 Went the Day Well
2 Stealcase
4 Mr. Prankster
J.R.
1 Stealcase
2 Went the Day Well
3 Ill Conceived
4 Holiday Promise
Other Races of Note
At Fair Grounds on Saturday . . .
Race 10: This six-furlong allowance optional claiming race for three-year-olds has drawn a pair of colts that broke their maidens impressively here at Fair Grounds earlier in the meet: Bourbon Courage and Macho Macho. Of the two, Bourbon Courage is probably best, seeing that he soundly defeated both Macho Macho when breaking his maiden, earning a Beyer speed figure of 103 in the process. Macho Macho has clearly improved since then, for he won his next start by 2 1/4 lengths in a highly impressive performance. A victory for either one of them could put them on the track to future success in stakes races.
At Gulfstream Park on Saturday . . .
Race 4: A 6-1/2 furlong allowance optional claiming race for three-year-olds, this race looks like a good one indeed. A number of quality sprinters have been entered, including Right to Vote, making his first start since finishing third in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) last year. He looks like a solid favorite, but local allowance runners Seve, Dangerous Trick, and Blings Express all look capable of pulling off an upset if the favorite isn't dead fit in his first start since last October. Incredicat, who broke his maiden last December at Woodbine, could also be in the mix.
At Turfway Park on Saturday . . .
Race 8: While I doubt that the one-mile Rushaway Stakes is going to turn out a Derby contender, the race has nevertheless drawn a quality field of runners led by Gung Ho, Flashy Dresser, Gold Megillah, and Dynamical. Gung Ho won the Sunday Silence Stakes on the turf as a juvenile, but hasn't raced since finishing seventh in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I). Flashy Dresser broke his maiden by 6 3/4 lengths earlier this month at Gulfstream, but is taking a step up in class. Gold Megillah has proven to be a solid competitor in allowance races at Gulfstream, and Dynamical is coming off of a third-place finish in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes here at Turfway. It's hard to say who will triumph, but I've always felt that Gung Ho could be a nice one, and I will be watching to see how he does.
-Keelerman
Vinery Spiral Stakes (gr. III)
Nine Furlongs on the Turfway Park synthetic track
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Russian Greek | Corey Nakatani |
| 2 | Red Jack | Martin Pedroza |
| 3 | Heavy Breathing | Javier Castellano |
| 4 | Went the Day Well | John Velazquez |
| 5 | Holiday Promise | Junior Alvarado |
| 6 | All Squared Away | Luis Contreras |
| 7 | Ill Conceived | Stewart Elliott |
| 8 | Coach Royal | Fernando Jara |
| 9 | Tizanexpense | Victor Lebron |
| 10 | Mr. Prankster | Rosie Napravnik |
| 11 | Stealcase | Rajiv Maragh |
| 12 | Handsome Mike | Joel Rosario |
The morning line favorite at 3-1 is Heavy Breathing, an up-and-coming young runner from the barn of Todd Pletcher. The son of Giant's Causeway is undefeated in two starts, having broken his maiden impressively at Gulfstream before winning a nine-furlong allowance race, also at Gulfstream. The talent is clearly there, and he will be retaining the services of top jockey Javier Castellano, but this will be his first start over a synthetic track and one must wonder how well he will take to it.
If Heavy Breathing doesn't care for the track, then Went the Day Well and Handsome Mike should be right there at the finish. The first-mentioned colt, owned by Team Valor International, began his career in Europe, where he finished second in a pair of maiden races. He was then purchased by Team Valor and brought to the United States, where he finished fourth in his first start here before breaking his maiden last time out in excellent fashion going a mile and a sixteenth at Gulfstream Park. With John Velazquez in the saddle, expect this colt to get a great trip while coming from mid-pack.
As for Handsome Mike, he has been facing some of the best colts that California has to offer, finishing seventh (beaten just 2 3/4 lengths) in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I), fourth in the Sham Stakes (gr. III), and third in the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III). It would appear as though he just isn't good enough to defeat the best colts in California, but he should find this field more suited to his ability; in fact, his Beyer speed figures pretty much tower over those of his rivals in this spot. I love the fact that Joel Rosario will be flying here from California to ride this colt. To me, that says something about this horse's ability.
Ill Conceived and Mr. Prankster, the second- and fourth-place finishers, respectively, in last month's John Battaglia Memorial Stakes here at Turfway, should also be major contenders. Ill Conceived set the pace that day before losing the lead to a quality colt in State of Play, but was actually closing the gap again at the finish and might have won if the race had been slightly longer. On the other hand, he was allowed to set a very, very slow pace that day of :49.83 and 1:14.71, which obviously left him with something in the tank for the finish.
Actually, that pace may have been the reason why Mr. Prankster wound up fourth. The promising colt has previously won the two prep races for the John Battaglia -- the Turfway Prevue Stakes and the WEBN Stakes -- in highly impressive fashion. But the late-running colt had very quick paces to chase in those races, actually three to four seconds faster than he did in the John Battaglia. Seeing that the pace should be much quicker today, I would think that Mr. Prankster will rebound in good fashion.
Russian Greek, Stealcase, and Holiday Promise are going to be longer prices, but may have just as good a chance at winning as the favorites. Russian Greek looked good earlier this year when he won the California Derby with a strong late run. However, he failed to menace in his last start, the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III), where he wound up a soundly beaten fifth. But he is taking a bit of a class drop here, and seeing that he has already has a stakes victory over a synthetic track, he could be coming on strongly at the finish to secure a major piece of the purse. The addition of blinkers should also help his chances.
Stealcase has won only one of his four starts to date, and is coming off of a 10 3/4-length defeat in the Gotham Stakes (gr. III), but several things make me think that he could be a major contender here. For one thing, he will be wearing blinkers for the first time -- and his trainer, Mike Casse, wins at a 25% rate under those circumstances. Furthermore, prior to the Gotham, this colt ran in a pair of potentially key maiden races. On December 24th, he finished fourth in a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream behind Thunder Moccasin, Ender Knievel, and Panthro, all of whom came back to win their next starts. Then, on January 19th, Stealcase broke his maiden over a colt named Windersurfer, who also came back to win his next race. Based on these factors, as well as a few others, I really think this colt could be something special.
Holiday Promise, the other Todd Pletcher-trainee in this race, does not have the same flashy record as his stablemate, but could nevertheless be in the mix. He's only won once from five starts, that victory coming last November at Laurel Park, but he's run well enough since then to suggest that he could be a threat from off the pace. I particularly liked his fourth-place effort two starts back against subsequent stakes winner Raconteur, where he closed strongly late from off the pace to be beaten just 1 3/4 lengths in a one-mile and seventy-yard allowance race.
The longshots in this field are Red Jack, All Squared Away, Coach Royal, and Tizanexpense. Red Jack, from the barn of D. Wayne Lukas, has only a single victory from nine starts, most recently finishing third in a claiming race at Oaklawn Park. All Squared Away is coming off of a second-place finish in a starter allowance race, having previously finished seventh in the El Camino Real Derby. Coach Royal has never won a race, despite having raced eight times, but is coming off of a pair of half-length defeats in nine-furlong turf maiden special weights at Gulfstream Park. Seeing that he has seven route races under his belt already, there's no denying that he has the experience to be a contender here, but the bigger question is whether or not he is talented enough. As for Tizanexpense, he won a pair of races at Fair Grounds last winter, but is coming off of a seventh-place finish in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II), where he was beaten eleven lengths. But to be perfectly honest, he didn't get the best of trips that day, and he could certainly be a contender here if doesn't get hung wide around the first turn.
So there you have it -- the twelve-horse Spiral Stakes, in which no horse seems to really stand out and every one of them has at least a moderate chance at hitting the board. I really have no idea who to pick, but since this is one of contest races for the Triple Crown Handicapping Contest between J.R. and I, here are our selections:
Keelerman
1 Handsome Mike
2 Went the Day Well
2 Stealcase
4 Mr. Prankster
J.R.
1 Stealcase
2 Went the Day Well
3 Ill Conceived
4 Holiday Promise
Other Races of Note
At Fair Grounds on Saturday . . .
Race 10: This six-furlong allowance optional claiming race for three-year-olds has drawn a pair of colts that broke their maidens impressively here at Fair Grounds earlier in the meet: Bourbon Courage and Macho Macho. Of the two, Bourbon Courage is probably best, seeing that he soundly defeated both Macho Macho when breaking his maiden, earning a Beyer speed figure of 103 in the process. Macho Macho has clearly improved since then, for he won his next start by 2 1/4 lengths in a highly impressive performance. A victory for either one of them could put them on the track to future success in stakes races.
At Gulfstream Park on Saturday . . .
Race 4: A 6-1/2 furlong allowance optional claiming race for three-year-olds, this race looks like a good one indeed. A number of quality sprinters have been entered, including Right to Vote, making his first start since finishing third in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) last year. He looks like a solid favorite, but local allowance runners Seve, Dangerous Trick, and Blings Express all look capable of pulling off an upset if the favorite isn't dead fit in his first start since last October. Incredicat, who broke his maiden last December at Woodbine, could also be in the mix.
At Turfway Park on Saturday . . .
Race 8: While I doubt that the one-mile Rushaway Stakes is going to turn out a Derby contender, the race has nevertheless drawn a quality field of runners led by Gung Ho, Flashy Dresser, Gold Megillah, and Dynamical. Gung Ho won the Sunday Silence Stakes on the turf as a juvenile, but hasn't raced since finishing seventh in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I). Flashy Dresser broke his maiden by 6 3/4 lengths earlier this month at Gulfstream, but is taking a step up in class. Gold Megillah has proven to be a solid competitor in allowance races at Gulfstream, and Dynamical is coming off of a third-place finish in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes here at Turfway. It's hard to say who will triumph, but I've always felt that Gung Ho could be a nice one, and I will be watching to see how he does.
-Keelerman
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