Every horse racing fan knows that during the Triple Crown season, everybody has a Derby pick. Regular readers of this blog know that the term "everybody" includes my hat.
Yes, every year, my hat comes off my head and tries to tell me who to pick in the Kentucky Derby. Of course, I know better than to listen to it -- its record is dismal, having picked Line of David in 2010 and Watch Me Go in 2011 -- but you have to give it credit for not giving up.
This year, my hat is especially confident in its selections, to the point where it has been ridiculing my own picks. So I challenged it to reveal its complete list of selections, from first to last. My hat was happy to oblige, and after I wrote out the names of every Derby contender on twenty slips of paper, the hat mixed them up and dropped them out in what it believes to be the correct order of finish.
For our enjoyment, here they are. Starting at the bottom . . .
20th: Prospective
I suppose this isn't a totally shocking selections. Prospective has been training well at Churchill, but clearly the hat was not impressed with his sixth-place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I)
19th: Dullahan
Well, it seems that every year, one or two of the major contenders fails to fire whatsoever, finishing way behind the winner in a dismal performance. Apparently, the hat feels that Dullahan is this year's version of Monba, or Sidney's Candy.
18th: Gemologist
Hmm . . . an undefeated colt that is 2-for-2 at Churchill . . . to finish eighteenth? I'm not sure what the hat was thinking here.
17th: Daddy Nose Best
Now I'm really confused. I can understand tossing two of the major prep race winners, but three? First the hat tossed the Blue Grass winner, then the Wood winner, now the Sunland Derby winner...
16th: Done Talking
And now the Illinois Derby winner!
15th: I'll Have Another
Okay. Clearly, the hat has something against horses that won their last races.
14th: Alpha
And horses that ran in the Wood Memorial. The hat must feel that the Wood Memorial was the opposite of a key race -- like, a non-key race or something. First it tossed the winner, and now the runner-up.
13th: Trinniberg
Aha! At last, a selection that actually makes some sort of sense! While I think Trinniberg is capable of running better than this, a lot of people feel that this stakes-winning sprinter is going to finish a whole lot closer to last than first. The hat seems to agree.
12th: Union Rags
I won't even comment on this ridiculous selection.
11th: Optimizer
Not much to say about this one. Chances are, eleventh is in the vicinity of where Optimizer will probably finish.
10th: Daddy Long Legs
And not much to say about this pick either. The hat seems to be getting some of the medium contenders out of the way by placing them in medium positions.
9th: Rousing Sermon
Same with this selection.
8th: Take Charge Indy
The hat must not be impressed by Calvin Borel's Derby record -- or else it's just not impressed by Take Charge Indy.
7th: Hansen
I guess that hat doesn't think Hansen can go a mile and a quarter.
6th: El Padrino
Well, this is better than picking Gemologist to finish 18th, but apparently, the hat doesn't believe this to be Todd Pletcher's Derby.
5th: Creative Cause
Well, the hat is clearly rewarding Creative Cause for his consistency. However, the merciless hat just doesn't seem to care for favorites, and doubts that Creative Cause is going to pick up more than a minor share of the purse.
***
And now (drumroll, please), it is time for my hat's "can't-miss" SUPERFECTA!
4th: Liaison
Whoa. I know he's been training well, but this would be a shocker.
3rd: Bodemeister
The hat envisions Bodemeister surviving the speed duel that got rid of Hansen and Trinniberg (see above), but falling short at the finish to a pair of other runners.
2nd: Sabercat
If the hat hits this superfecta, then there is little doubt that it will never have to work again.
1st: Went the Day Well
Can anyone say "Team Valor Derby Double?" Apparently the hat is confident that Graham Motion and John Velazquez have the magic touch to win a second straight Derby.
-Keelerman
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