Wednesday, May 02, 2012

KENTUCKY DERBY COUNTDOWN --May 2nd, 2012

Three days until the Derby . . .

* Not surprisingly, there were no Derby- or Oak-related workouts turned in this morning, for the race is now only a few days away and all major training has been completed. However, there were a few interesting gallops, with Union Rags and Take Charge Indy looking excellent. The latter colt was visiting the track for the first time after arriving yesterday, and galloped a mile and five-eighths under three-time Derby winning jockey Calvin Borel.
As for Union Rags, a fascinating article was written on the subject of his gallop by DRF's Mike Welsch. You can read it on DRF.com: http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-workouts-union-rags-relaxes-without-tongue-tie

* The mystery of who will ride Alpha was resolved once and for all today when entries were taken. Rajiv Maragh has the mount on the Wood Memorial (gr. I) runner-up, who has drawn gate eleven.

* Speaking of the post position draw: While I intend to write up a full analysis on the subject tomorrow, let me just say for the moment that I feel Take Charge Indy (post 3) and Creative Cause (post 8) drew extremely good post positions that compliment their running styles. Calvin Borel aboard Take Charge Indy should be able to drop his colt right on to the fence in the fourth, fifth, or perhaps sixth position early on, getting a dream trip while saving ground. Creative Cause, who seems to run best when racing on the outside, should be able to get into excellent position from gate eight. Hansen (post 14) should also perform well from his gate, but Union Rags (post 4) and I'll Have Another (post 19) may have their work cut out for them.

* The last two Derby contenders arrived at Churchill today, with Hansen shipping in from the nearby Churchill Downs training track and Daddy Long Legs arriving from Ballydoyle in Ireland. I expect that both will visit the track tomorrow morning.

* Another day of racing at Churchill was completed this afternoon, with Calvin Borel claiming another victory. Robby Albarado won two races, while Manoel Cruz, Leandro Goncalves, Gabriel Saez, Joel Rosario, Corey Nakatani, James Graham, and Corey Lanerie each won one.

As for potential track biases, the track did seem to be playing in favor of speed for the second straight day, as every one of the eight main track races were won by horses racing on or near the early lead. However, the bias certainly didn't seem to be overpowering, for there were numerous occasions in which a front-runner tired badly in the homestretch to finish off the board. But in general, the closers appeared to be having trouble rallying while the front runners were lasting longer than they should have. It will be interesting to see how the track plays tomorrow, and on Oaks day.
(Note: Be sure to check out our Kentucky Derby Handicapping Contest, in which one lucky handicapper will win a free copy of "The 10 Best Kentucky Derbies," published by Eclipse Press. Read the details here!)

-Keelerman

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