The following are my thoughts on each horse and their respective post position, focusing mainly on how good a trip each given horse should be able to work out from their position in the gate. Let us now take a look at the complete list of post positions:
1 Daddy Long Legs
2 Optimizer
3 Take Charge Indy
4 Union Rags
5 Dullahan
6 Bodemeister
7 Rousing Sermon
8 Creative Cause
9 Trinniberg
10 Daddy Nose Best
11 Alpha
12 Prospective
13 Went the Day Well
14 Hansen
15 Gemologist
16 El Padrino
17 Done Talking
18 Sabercat
19 I'll Have Another
20 Liaison
Before we delve into our thorough examination, let us take a moment to glance through a trio of charts that I have compiled, chronicling the success rates of the twenty post positions over the last eleven years.
The first chart, displayed below, lists the last eleven Derbies and which posts the first-, second-, third-, and fourth-place finishers started from.
| Year | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
| 2011 | 16 | 18 | 13 | 14 |
| 2010 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| 2009 | 8 | 15 | 2 | 7 |
| 2008 | 20 | 5 | 16 | 2 |
| 2007 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 5 |
| 2006 | 8 | 13 | 2 | 1/18 (Dead-heat) |
| 2005 | 10 | 18 | 12 | 17 |
| 2004 | 13 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| 2003 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 3 |
| 2002 | 5 | 12 | 3 | 9 |
| 2001 | 16 | 13 | 8 | 4 |
The second chart displays the same information in a slightly different form. Rather than listing by year, we are now listing by post position, and viewing how many first-, second-, third-, and fourth-place finishers each gate has produced over the same period of time.
| PP | 1sts | 2nds | 3rds | 4th | Total |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 16 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 18 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
As we can see, posts 5, 8, and 16 have each accounted for a pair of Derbies, while gates 4, 10, 13, 18, and 20 have each had a single winner. Posts 17 and 19 have, of course, not produced a winner. They remain the only post positions to have never produced a Derby winner.
We can also see that horses starting from gates 6, 14, and 19 have failed to crack the superfecta during the last eleven years. This isn't really surprising for a post position like number 19, but I never would have guessed that gates 6 and 14 have failed so badly over the last decade.
From the standpoint of producing the most superfecta finishers, you can't beat gates 2 and 8, which have each produced five apiece. But of the two, gate eight seems to be the better post, for it has produced two Derby winners to gate 2's zero.
As for the dreaded post position 1, the above charts reflect why it is such an awful post position to draw. Only two horses over the past eleven years have managed to crack the superfecta after breaking from post one, and both finished fourth.
The final chart I have created lists each of the twenty post positions, followed by the last horse to win the Derby after starting from that spot.
| PP | Horse | Year |
| 1 | Ferdinand | 1986 |
| 2 | Affirmed | 1978 |
| 3 | Real Quiet | 1998 |
| 4 | Super Saver | 2010 |
| 5 | Funny Cide | 2003 |
| 6 | Sea Hero | 1993 |
| 7 | Pleasant Colony | 1981 |
| 8 | Mine That Bird | 2009 |
| 9 | Riva Ridge | 1972 |
| 10 | Giacamo | 2005 |
| 11 | Winning Colors | 1988 |
| 12 | Canonero II | 1971 |
| 13 | Smarty Jones | 2004 |
| 14 | Carry Back | 1961 |
| 15 | Fusaichi Pegasus | 2000 |
| 16 | Animal Kingdom | 2011 |
| 17 | N/A | N/A |
| 18 | Street Sense | 2007 |
| 19 | N/A | N/A |
| 20 | Big Brown | 2008 |
(Posts seventeen and nineteen have never produced a Derby winner.)
Looking over this list, it's hard to believe that it has been about fifty years since post 14 produced the Derby winner. But during that time frame, something like five or six horses have won the Derby from stall 16. Go figure.
***
Now, let's take a look at each Derby starter, and how their post position might affect them:
1. Daddy Long Legs - Aside from the obvious fact that it is not unusual for the horse starting from gate one to get mugged, this is a colt that has done the majority of his racing on turf and synthetics. Seeing that he is likely to get buried along the fence in the early going, he is probably going to get a great deal of dirt kicked in his face -- something he may not care for at all.
2. Optimizer - As long as he gets away in good order, without anyone bumping him too hard, post two shouldn't affect him. He'll probably take back early on and make one run.
3. Take Charge Indy - Let's see. Calvin Borel. I wonder where Take Charge Indy is going to be early on? :) Chances are, this colt is going to get off to a good start and settle down into the fourth or fifth position, saving as much ground as possible under the Derby master. From there, it will simply be a matter of if he is good enough.
4. Union Rags - While it's possible that Union Rags will get an excellent trip from gate four, it's also possible that he is going to find himself buried behind horses in the early stages. It appears as though this colt needs a bit of time to get going, and he may just not have the acceleration to extract himself from a pocket and get himself into high gear in a matter of strides.
5. Dullahan - Post position really isn't going to affect him, for he's going to take back and make one run anyway, something he can accomplish from just about any spot in the starting gate.
6. Bodemeister - On the surface, this isn't a terrible gate position, but he has drawn inside of the other front-runners (Trinniberg and Hansen), so he may have to settle a bit further off the pace than he usually does. Other than that, post six should be okay for him.
7. Rousing Sermon - Like Dullahan, this late-runner doesn't really care where he starts from, so long as he gets a clear path in the homestretch.
8. Creative Cause - This is a colt that likes to be outside of horses, so gate eight should be just about perfect for him. He's got enough tactical speed to get himself into good position early on, so I wouldn't expect to see him more than six lengths off of the early leaders.
9. Trinniberg - This colt's mission is to get to the lead and stay there for as long as possible, so gate nine should be perfect.
10. Daddy Nose Best - Another late-running type, gate ten shouldn't affect his chances whatsoever.
11. Alpha - From the perspective of securing early position, Alpha really couldn't have drawn a much better stall. However, this colt shown a tendency in the past to act up in the starting gate -- and the horse in gate eleven is always the second to be loaded for the Derby. So Alpha will find himself having to wait, wait, and wait while eighteen others horses enter the starting gate. If he doesn't act up, that's great. If he does . . .?
12. Prospective - This colt has shown a variety of running styles in the past, so gate twelve should give him plenty of options.
13. Went the Day Well - This colt is very similar to Animal Kingdom. Not only do they share a similar running style, but both won the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III). Seeing that Went the Day Well's biggest success has come on synthetic, I wouldn't be surprised if this jockey John Velazquez tries to give this colt a similar trip to the one Animal Kingdom received last year -- tucking up close behind horses early on while racing on the outside. If that is indeed the case, than post thirteen should be perfect.
14. Hansen - Post fourteen should pose no trouble at all for this front-running colt, who should be able to workout a perfect trip while tracking the other early speedsters Trinniberg and Bodemeister.
15. Gemologist - He has shown speed in the past, and figures to settle just in behind the early leaders, perhaps fourth, fifth, or sixth early on. The only concern here is that he might get hung wide on the first turn, but at least he shouldn't have any traffic issues from this starting position.
16. El Padrino - This colt is a grinding type, with a real burst of acceleration within him. Chances are, he will get hung a bit wide from gate sixteen, and may find himself a bit further back than he really wants to be, but he shouldn't encounter any traffic issues.
17. Done Talking - He may be a bit too far to the outside, but this late-running colt figures to be well off the pace early on, so he shouldn't really care where he starts from.
18. Sabercat - Another late-running colt, he probably won't care too much about gate eighteen, although it's always possible to get hung wide from these far outside gate positions.
19. I'll Have Another - He may have his chances seriously hindered by starting from gate nineteen. The colt has always shown early speed, but not enough to outrun the likes of Trinniberg and Hansen early on. So chances are, he will find himself caught three- or four-wide early on while farther off the pace than usual, which could pose a bit of a problem.
20. Liaison - Post twenty is going to be a problem for this colt, for no matter what he does, he's is likely to get hung wide. With the blinkers coming back on, I expect to see him show some early speed, but like I'll Have Another, he probably won't be able to get past the true front-runners early on, leaving a far outside trip as the only real possiblity.
-Keelerman
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