Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II)
Nine furlongs on the Belmont Park dirt track
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Right to Vote | Alex Solis |
| 2 | The Lumber Guy | M. J. Luzzi |
| 4 | Le Berardin | Eddie Castro |
| 5 | Mark Valeski | Rosie Napravnik |
| 6 | Good Morning Diva | Julien Leparoux |
| 7 | Hakama | John Velazquez |
| 8 | Big Screen | Rajiv Maragh |
| 9 | Master Rick | Corey Nakatani |
| 11 | Summer Front | Ramon Dominguez |
| 12 | Street Life | Jose Lezcano |
(Zetterholm and Teeth of the Dog have scratched, and will instead run in the Preakness Stakes (gr. I) next Saturday)
The morning line favorite will almost undoubtedly be Mark Valeski, if not simply because he almost ran in the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) last weekend. The promising son of Proud Citizen is still looking for his firs stakes victory, but did finish second in both the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) and Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) during the spring. He likely would have won the Louisiana Derby had he not lost a shoe prior to the race. Trained by Larry Jones, who is winning at an incredible 30% rate this year, Mark Valeski has the pedigree to get nine furlongs and figures to be a very serious contender for the win.
The Lumber Guy will also receive a great deal of betting support. Winner of the Jerome Stakes (gr. II) going a mile last time out, he has won three of his four starts, and possesses a great deal of early speed, but his lone try at this distance yielded a well-beaten fifth in the Wood Memorial (gr. I). Still, this is only a one-turn nine furlong race, and if he can get away with an easy lead, he can take them a long way on the front end -- possibly even all the way.
Master Rick may be 10-1 on the morning line, but I doubt he'll be that high by post time. While he did lose his first four starts by a combined total of 40 3/4 lengths, since switching to the barn of Steve Asmussen he is a perfect 2-for-2, which includes a determined victory in the Northern Spur Stakes over grade I winner-Drill. In that race, he turned in fractions of approximately :24 1/5, :24 1/5, :24 1/5, and :24 flat to win the one-mile race in a sharp 1:36 3/5. If he can repeat that performance today, he is more than capable of winning this race. The added distance shouldn't be an issue.
Le Bernardin brings a two-race winning streak into this event, which includes a victory in a one-mile allowance race at Aqueduct over older horses. Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, the son of Bernardini appears to be improving in leaps and bounds, and should relish the additional distance that this race provides. He's taking a pretty big step up in class, but he's got the early speed to be contender from the start, coupled with the ability to relax off the pace. This combination could potentially make him the colt to beat.
Summer Front brings a promising record into this race, with three wins and a second from four starts, but this will be his first start on dirt. Being a son of War Chant out of an El Prado mare, he seems to be bred for the turf -- over which all of his victories have come -- but he did prove versatile enough to finish a strong second in the Lexington Stakes (gr. III) over Keeneland's Polytrack last time out. He will have the services of top rider Ramon Dominguez in the saddle, and post eleven should suit him fine. If he takes to the dirt, he can be a contender for the win. A sloppy track would probably help his chances.
Right to Vote and Good Morning Diva both have the early speed to be major pace players, although both will have to step up in order to win. The first-mentioned colt raced three times as a juvenile, breaking his maiden second time out before finishing a strong third to Union Rags and Alpha in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I). Put away for the year, ,he returned on March 24th to win a 6-1/2 furlong allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream Park by a head, despite dueling through a :44 2/5 half-mile. Given that he is proven over this track, it wouldn't surprise me if he runs very well, but the distance is a bit of a question mark, and he does have to overcome gate one. His workouts have been excellent.
Good Morning Diva enters this race off of a narrow victory in the Calder Derby, in which he disputed the pace over an off track before drawing away from a game Big Screen to win by a neck. For his efforts, he earned a Beyer speed figure that would make him competitive here, but whether that was a result of the off track or the fact that it was his first route race remains to be seen. Today, he has top rider Julien Leparoux in the saddle, and will be making his first start for new trainer Timothy Hills.
Big Screen is also back from the Calder Derby to take another shot at a winning a stakes race. He already has a pair of nine-furlong races under his belt, and has faced excellent company throughout his career, including El Padrino, Take Charge Indy, Battle Hardened, Heavy Breathing, and Politicallycorrect. His Calder Derby performance was excellent, but it is possible that he is just a tad bit below some of the top contenders in this spot. Today's race will mark his first start for new trainer Thomas Albertrani.
The final two colts to discuss are Hakama and Street Life. Both are coming off of fair performances in major Kentucky Derby preps, with Street Life finishing a decent sixth in the Wood Memorial and Hakama closing from far behind to finish third in the Illinois Derby (gr. III). Of the two, I thought that Hakama's effort was particularly impressive, given that he had a nightmarish trip and had never been off the pace before. However, I can certainly see why Street Life has the lower morning line odds (8-1 versus 15-1), and wouldn't be surprised if he ran well.
My selections are:
1 Mark Valeski
2 Le Bernardin
3 Hakama
4 Master Rick
J.R.'s selections are:
1 Master Rick
2 The Lumber Guy
3 Mark Valeski
4 Summer Front
Other Races of Note
At Belmont Park on Saturday . . .
Race 3: The You and I Stakes has drawn a field of just five horses, but that field includes 2011 Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) winner Currency Swap and the Bay Shore Stakes (gr. III) runner-up Hardened Wildcat. Of the pair, I like Currency Swap best, as he is shortening up off of traffic-troubled trip in the Illinois Derby (gr. III) at a distance probably too long for him. Brian, a winner of two straight at Gulfstream Park, is a longshot that could definitely be in the mix.
At Betfair Hollywood Park on Saturday . . .
Race 3: How often do you see a race where one trainer's runners represent half the field? It doesn't happen too often, but the seven-furlong Lazaro Barrera Memorial Stakes (gr. III) is going to be one of them. Only four horses were entered, and two of them are trained by Bob Baffert. His duo of Drill -- winner of the Del Mar Futurity (gr. I) and San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) at this distance -- and the promising Gun Boat looks tough to beat. American Act, runner-up in the San Vicente and subsequent winner of the Harry Henson Stakes over this track, stands the best chance of defeating the pair. Boompa, from the barn of Gary Mandella, was highly impressive in breaking his maiden on April 7th, but this is a big step up in class and he would likely need a stiff pace up front to set up his late run.
At Golden Gate Fields on Saturday . . .
Race 7: It may be only a $75,000 stakes, but the 1 1/16th miles Alcatraz Stakes on the Golden Gate turf has drawn a very talented field of runners, led by Chips All In and Stoney Fleece. The first-mentioned colt has won five of his seven starts and is a perfect 2-for-2 on turf, and a sharp victory in the Pasadena Stakes last time out signals his readiness. Stoney Fleece won the Generous Stakes (gr. III) on the turf last fall, and while he could only manage a seventh-place finish in the Pasadena, he has been in very good form overall as of late and should be closing strongly from just off the pace. Another obvious contender is Longview Drive, who was on the Triple Crown trail after close third-place finish in the Sham Stakes (gr. III). He has disappointed in his two starts since then, but perhaps a switch to the turf will help him regain his form.
At Calder on Saturday . . .
Race 9: The In Summation Stakes, a six-furlong sprint on the main track, marks the return of Calder star Fort Loudon. The colt swept the Florida Stallion Series last fall before heading on the road to try and stamp himself as a Triple Crown contender. Poor efforts in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III), Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II), and Florida Derby (gr. I) were the result, and while he proved that he wasn't quite up to competing with the best of his crop, he is more than capable of winning this race. If he is to be upset, then look for Hello Prince, a highly promising Florida-bred sprinter, to be right in the mix.
At Woodbine on Saturday . . .
Race 8: The Marine Stakes, a 1 1/16th miles stakes on the Polytrack for three-year-olds, has drawn a talented field of six that includes a number of American shippers. Holiday Promise, runner-up in the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III) two starts back, and All Squared Away, who defeated Holiday Promise soundly in the Lexington Stakes (gr. III), are the two morning line favorites. Bridge Loan, who broke his maiden at Keeneland on April 14th, and Incredicat, winner of the Wando Stakes last time out, should also be in the mix.
-Keelerman
No comments:
Post a Comment