Saturday, May 19, 2012

2012 Preakness Update #6

So -- having watched all of the five main track undercard races at Pimlico today, I have come to the conclusion that there isn't really any track bias. Speed horses have won, closers have won -- it seems you can come from just about anywhere with success. If there is any bias at all, it is an outside bias, but there doesn't appear to be anything serious.

The Preakness odds really aren't changing much at all, with Bodemeister still the favorite at 5-2 and I'll Have Another at 3-1. I'm starting to really like Creative Cause's chances here today, for the pace scenario should suit his running style and if there is an outside bias, he should be able to take advantage of it. Will I pick him to win? I haven't quite decided yet.

Of all the horses in the race, I think that Cozzetti offers the most value at 23-1. He has been training so well that it's not impossible that he could shock everyone and pull off a surprising upset.

Went the Day Well is receiving a bit more support than I figured he would, for he is currently the third choice at 9-2. I figured he would be closer to 6-1, but I guess a lot of people feel he could have won the Derby with a better trip; thus the betting support.

-Keelerman

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