Race 6: La Troinne Stakes (gr. II)
1 1/16th miles on the main track
Entries:
1 Afleeting Lady
2 St. John's River
3 Love Theway Youare
4 Plum Pretty
5 Juanita
6 Absinthe Minded
7 Maristar
The heavy favorite will undoubtedly be Plum Pretty, a fine filly from the barn of Bob Baffert that won last year's Kentucky Oaks. Her form was iffy for the rest of the year, but she did manage to score a convincing victory in the Fitz Dixon Cotillion Stakes (gr. II) and finish second in the TVG Coaching Club American Oaks (gr. I). This year, she won the Apple Blossom Handicap (gr. I) in impressive fashion off of a five-month layoff. She should be even sharper today, and I can't really see her getting beat.
Of course, one must respect St. John's River, who was beaten just a neck by Plum Pretty in the 2011 Kentucky Oaks. She came back after that to win the Delaware Oaks (gr. II), but subsequently finished fifth in the TVG Alabama Stakes (gr. I) and went to the sidelines. She underwent surgery to correct a breathing issue, and has trained well since then, but she probably won't be ready to turn in her best effort off such a long layoff, so second is probably the best she can manage today.
For third, I like Afleeting Lady, who has not raced since finishing second in the Falls City Handicap (gr. II) here at Churchill last November. Like St. John's River, she may need to get a race under her belt before returning to her sharpest form, but she has turned in a pair of bullet works here at Churchill for her return, and I think that she could be sitting on a big effort.
Race 7: Eight Belles Stakes (gr. III)
Seven furlongs on the main track
Entries:
1 Always Here Too
2 Small Kitchen
3 Good Deed
4 Zunlei
5 Volcat
6 Livi Makenzie
7 Contested
8 My Due Process
This looks like a pretty evenly-matched race, with a number of fillies looking capable of winning, but the one I like is Contested. The Bob Baffert-trainee looked terrific last year when she broke her maiden by 6 1/2 lengths in a Santa Anita maiden special weight, and looked just as good when returning off of a six-month layoff to win a 6-1/2 furlong allowance race at that same track by about five lengths. She should only be sharper today, and figures to work out an excellent trip from gate seven.
As for the rest, Xunlei won the Stonehedge Farm South Sophomore Fillies Stakes going this same distance at Calder last month, and should be coming strongly late if the pace is quick enough to set up her late run. Good Deed won Oaklawn's six-furlong Prima Donna Stakes last month in the sharp time of 1:09.66, and may simply be capable of running her rivals off their feet. Small Kitchen was beaten 14 1/4 lengths last time out in the Fair Grounds Oaks (gr. II), but that was a two-turn route race, and she is undefeated in sprints. Like Contested and Good Deed, she'll likely be part of the early pace, so if those three were to duel themselves into defeat, then don't be surprised if Xunlei picks up the pieces.
Race 8: Edgewood Stakes
1 1/16th miles on the turf course
I won't go into great detail here, but Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. II) winner Stephanie's Kitten looks best in this spot. Although she could only manage a third-place finish in the Ashland Stakes (gr. I) last time out, that was her first start in five months, and she should be much sharper today.
If Stephanie's Kitten is to be beat, then More Than Love and Welcome Dance could be capable of playing spoiler. More Than Love's turf races have been exceptional, and although she could only managed a badly beaten seventh in the Bourbonette Stakes (gr. III) last time out, that was over Turfway's Polytrack. As for Welcome Dance, she has not raced since finishing a narrowly beaten fourth in Gulfstream's Ginger Brew Stakes last December, but in that race, she received a simply awful trip. She has trained so sharply since then for trainer Michael Matz that I suspect she may be sitting on the best race of her career. I won't be surprised at all if she were to win.
Race 9: Alysheba Stakes (gr. II)
1 1/16th miles on the main track
Entries:
1 Nates Mineshaft
2 Successful Dan
3 Fort Larned
4 Mucho Macho Man
5 Golden Yank
6 Boxeur des Rues (Scratched)
7 Apart
8 Plutonium
9 Our Dark Knight (Scratched)
10 Colizeo
To me, this race is between Mucho Macho Man and Successful Dan. The first-mentioned colt finished third over this track in last year's Kentucky Derby and is riding a three-race winning streak that includes victories in the Gulfstream Park Handicap (gr. II) and the Florida Sunshine Millions Classic Stakes. Among the horses he beat in those two races were Ron the Greek, subsequent winner of the Santa Anita Handicap (gr. I); and Jackson Bend, winner of the Carter Handicap (gr. I) last time out.
As for Successful Dan, he finished first in the 2010 Clark Handicap (gr. I) before being disqualified to third. Injuries kept him sidelined for the next sixteen months, but he showed no signs of rust in his return race last month at Keeneland, in which he won an "about seven furlongs" allowance race by a length over fellow Alysheba contender Golden Yank. This is admittedly a major step up in class, but I think he could prove up to the challenge.
Fort Larned and Nates Mineshaft will also be well bet, for they are coming off of highly impressive victories in graded stakes, but I'm a bit concerned that they may not repeat those performances. Fort Larned's victory in Gulfstream Skip Away Stakes (gr. III) -- in which he broke the track record a 1 3/16th miles -- was much, much better than any effort he had ever turned in previously. Nates Mineshaft brings a four-race winning streak into this race, which includes victories in the New Orleans Handicap (gr. II) and Mineshaft Handicap (gr. III), but all four of those victories came at Fair Grounds, and I'm not sure that he isn't just a spectacular Fair Grounds specialist.
Apart and Colizeo will likely receive some betting support as well, but neither have raced in many months and probably need to get this race under them before returning to peak form. Golden Yank, however, could very well be up to turning in a decent performance if the early pace is sufficiently fast.
Race 10: American Turf Stakes (gr. II)
1 1/16th miles on the turf course
I won't go into great detail here either, simply because there are so many horses to discuss, but I think that this race may be ripe for an upset. After all, two of the favorites -- Silver Max and Howe Great, both of whom have shown a great deal of early speed in the past -- will be breaking from far outside post positons.
The colt I like is Todd Pletcher's Star Channel, who has won three straight races since last December, culminating with a victory in the Dayton Andrews Dodge Sophomore Turf Stakes. I'll be the first to admit that he is taking a pretty big step up in class, but he's got the early speed to be a contender from the start and a strong enough finishing kick to suggest that he could hold off the closers.
Gung Ho and Blueskiesnrainbows have both proven themselves in grade I company, finishing third in major Kentucky Derby preps, but it's hard to say if they are best on turf or not.
Race 11: Kentucky Oaks (gr. I)
Nine furlongs on the main track
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | On Fire Baby | Joe Johnson |
| 2 | Grace Hall | Javier Castellano |
| 3 | Summer Applause | Garrett Gomez |
| 4 | Eden's Moon | Martin Garcia |
| 5 | Hard Not to Like | Rafael Bejarano |
| 6 | Broadway's Alibi | John Velazquez |
| 7 | Sacristy | Mike Smith |
| 8 | Jemima's Pearl | Joe Talamo |
| 9 | Believe You Can | Rosie Napravnik |
| 10 | And Why Not | Julien Leparoux |
| 11 | Karlovy Vary | James Graham |
| 12 | Colonial Empress | Corey Nakatani |
| 13 | Amie's Dini | Jon Court |
| 14 | Yara | Jesus Castanon |
For this race, I shall break down the fourteen runners into three groups: Unlikely Contenders, Superfecta Contenders, and Win Contenders
UNLIKELY CONTENDERS
AND WHY NOT - This grade 1-placed filly finished second in the Pocahontas Stakes (gr. II) here at Churchill in October to fellow Oaks contender On Fire Baby, but her only start since then yielded a dismal seventh-place finish in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (gr. II). While it's not unreasonable to think she could rebound to her Pocahontas form, she would really have to step up even beyond that to be a contender in this tough race.
COLONIAL EMPRESS - While she did finish third to On Fire Baby and Amie's Dini in the Honeybee Stakes (gr. III) two starts back, this filly is still a maiden from three starts and has never finished closer than 6 1/4 lengths from the winner. Coupled with the fact that she has drawn gate twelve, it's hard to picture her securing any more than a minor piece of the purse.
KARLOVY VARY - It's difficult to toss a grade I winner, but this filly's lone start on dirt -- at Churchill last fall in the Golden Rod Stakes (gr. II) -- resulted in a badly beaten seventh-place finish behind On Fire Baby. Granted, she didn't get the best of trips at all that day, and she seems to have gotten considerably better with age, but this filly simply seems to be better on turf and synthetic, and her pedigree seems to agree with that.
SACRISTY - She did break her maiden here at Churchill last November, but this talented sprinter has never been beyond seven furlongs and has been beaten pretty soundly in her last two starts. There's no denying that she has talent, and she will have Mike Smith aboard, but I can't really see her being a major contender here.
YARA - Two starts back, she defeated Oaks favorite Grace Hall in the Davona Dale Stakes (gr. II), but Grace Hall was by no means at her best that day, coming off of a lengthy layoff, and the tables were turned next time out in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (gr. II) where Grace Hall won impressively as Yara finished fifth, beaten ten lengths. Perhaps Yara will rebound to her Davona Dale form, but even if she does, she still has to overcome the fact that she is a front-runner breaking from gate fourteen.
SUPERFECTA CONTENDERS
AMIE'S DINI - Yet another front-running filly to have drawn a far outside post position (gate 13), Amie's Dini has had a productive year, winning the Martha Washington Stakes and finishing second in a trio of stakes -- the Dixie Belle Stakes to the once-beaten, but now retired, Now I Know; the Honeybee Stakes (gr. III) to On Fire Baby; and the Fantasy Stakes (gr. II) to Mamma Kimbo. If she can work out a good trip, she can be right there at the finish, but between the number of speedsters in this race and her far outside post position, it's difficult to envision her pulling off an upset..
BELIEVE YOU CAN - Karlovy Vary, Yara, and Amie's Dini may be speedy fillies, but they're going to have to be quick to beat Believe You Can to the lead. This Larry Jones-trainee won the Fair Grounds Oaks (gr. II) and Silverbulletday Stakes this year at Fair Grounds, sandwiching those victories around a poor defeat in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (gr. III). She has been training beautifully here at Churchill for this race, but once again, this is a front-runner if a field full of front-runners. And nine furlongs may be just a tad bit beyond her range.
BROADWAY'S ALIBI - It's hard to believe, but this filly is a front-runner, too! From the barn of Todd Pletcher, this talented daughter of Vindication has won four straight races, including the seven-furlong Forward Gal Stakes (gr. II) by 16 3/4 lengths. Last time out, she took Aqueduct's Comely Stakes (gr. III) by 3 1/2 lengths while stretching out to a mile for the first time, but she still strikes me as a filly that may have difficulties traversing nine furlongs. Especially with all of the other speed in this race.
EDEN'S MOON - As incomprehensible as this might be, Eden's Moon is (let's guess!), a front-runner! Yes, this Bob Baffert-trained filly won the Las Virgenes Stakes (gr. I) at Santa Anita this spring in wire-to-wire fashion, then returned to finish a close third in the Santa Anita Oaks (gr. I) after being denied the early lead. Chances are, she'll do her best running if she gets a clear early lead and is allowed to settle -- but isn't that impossible in this spot? :)
ON FIRE BABY - There's a lot to like about this filly. She's 2-for-2 here at Churchill, both victories coming in graded stakes, and she enters this race off of a two-length victory in the Honeybee Stakes (gr. III) over Amie's Dini. But I am a little concerned about the fact that she has drawn gate one, and the fact that she has never been too far off of the early lead. With all the speed in this race, she'll probably be forced to sit a bit further back than usual, and likely along the rail. Perhaps she is good enough to overcome this, but I just don't know.
WIN CONTENDERS
GRACE HALL - This filly is going to be the deserving favorite, based off of the fact that she is coming off of a dominating victory in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (gr. II) and has never finished worse than second. Chances are, she is prepared to turn in the best performance of her career, but I am just a bit concerned about her post-position draw. She seems to be a much better filly when racing on the outside, and the possibility certainly exists that she could get trapped down along the rail. Furthermore, if you believe in Beyer speed figures, she just isn't fast enough to win this race. Nevertheless, I like her chances, and she is one filly who won't mind the nine furlong distance.
HARD NOT TO LIKE - At last, a closer! This talented filly has never raced on dirt, but has shown plenty of promise in her six starts to date. Last year, she finished a close fifth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. II), then returned five months later to finish a close second to Karlovy Vary in the Ashland Stakes (gr. I). Obviously, the switch to dirt is a concern, but being a daughter of Hard Spun, she shouldn't mind the switch, and with all of the speed in front of her setting up her late run, she could be a major, major contender in the homestretch.
JEMIMA'S PEARL - The more highly-regarded of Baffert's two entrants, Jemima's Pearl is coming off of a third-place finish in the Fantasy Stakes (gr. II), where she was beaten two lengths. However, she looked so impressive in that start, finishing up strongly from off the pace. She's got a nice pedigree backing her up, and there's more than enough speed here to set up her late run. Furthermore, she has drawn post position eight, which should allow her to secure a perfect trip, and she was more than holding her own while training with Derby favorite Bodemeister during the last couple of weeks. All in all, I think this filly has as good a chance at winning as anyone else, and with Baffert behind her, she may very well emerge victorious.
SUMMER APPLAUSE - I have been fond of this filly since she won an allowance optional claiming race at Fair Grounds last December, and she has more than lived up to expectations. After finishing a close second to Believe You Can in a paceless Silverbulletday Stakes, this late-running filly turned the tables on her rival to win the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (gr. III) by one length. Last time out, she was beaten a head by Believe You Can in the Fair Grounds Oaks (gr. II) after appearing hopelessly beaten at the eighth pole. She's got the speed figures to contend with anyone, a running style that fits the race, a top jockey in the saddle -- I think that could be a winning combination.
My selections are:
1 Jemima's Pearl
2 Summer Applause
3 Grace Hall
4 On Fire Baby
J.R.'s selections are:
1 Hard Not to Like
2 On Fire Baby
3 Grace Hall
4 Believe You Can
Surprisingly, we both decided to pick against Grace Hall. So I guess we'll both feel pretty silly if the big favorite wins by five, but we are both fairly confident in our selections and are looking forward to watching one of the most exciting races of the year!
(Note: Be sure to check out our Kentucky Derby Handicapping Contest, in which one lucky handicapper will win a free copy of "The 10 Best Kentucky Derbies," published by Eclipse Press. Read the details here!)
-Keelerman
No comments:
Post a Comment