Yesterday morning, I made an attempt to write up an article concerning the numerous workouts turned in by Preakness Stakes candidates on the morning of May 14th. I was nearly finished when the fireworks exploded.
Basically, my post -- which is now completely useless -- describe the workouts of five horses, namely Cozzetti, Optimizer, Hierro, Isn't He Clever, and Daddy Nose Best. In the article, I made note of the fact that Cozzetti and Optimizer were definitely Preakness starters, whereas Hierro had just been confirmed and Isn't He Clever removed from consideration. I threw in Daddy Nose Best's work as an afterthought. He wasn't under consideration for the Preakness, but I thought I'd mention the Derby runner's workout anyway.
Then the announcement came that Hierro would not run after all, despite his excellent five furlong breeze of 1:01 1/5. This bit of news was a bit surprising, but then came the news that Daddy Nose Best was under consideration, even though his workout was an unimpressive half-mile in :53 flat. This morning, it was officially confirmed that Daddy Nose Best would indeed run in the Preakness.
But those were not the only announcements to be made. Yesterday, it was confirmed that Derby ninth-place finisher Hansen would skip the race and instead await the Woody Stephens Stakes (gr. II) on June 9th.
Then longshot Brimstone Island dropped out of consideration, due simply to the fact that his connections doubted his ability to contend against the best colts of the crop. Seeing that his best finish to date has been a runner-up effort in the Canonero II Stakes, it was probably a wise decision.
Finally, it was announced that Paynter, runner-up in the Derby Trial Stakes (gr. III) on April 28th, would skip the Preakness in favor of an allowance race on the undercard.
So there you have it. In a span of twenty-four hours, five horses dropped out, and one entered the picture. These changes to the picture make it clear that the Preakness will not contain a full field of fourteen runners; eleven or twelve being much more likely.
As for the post that I had written on the subject of workouts, not much of it is salvageable, given all that has happened. But here are a few useable excerpts concerning Cozzetti, Optimizer, and Daddy Nose Best:
"By far the most impressive of the quartet was Cozzetti, from the barn of Dale Romans. The promising colt, who finished third in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) and fourth in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I) during the spring, breezed five furlongs over a track labeled "muddy" in the bullet time of :58 4/5 -- the fastest five-furlong work of the day by over a second. He has always shown a great deal of potential during the morning breezes, but this work in particular was highly impressive and should set him up well for the Preakness, if he is good enough."
"Optimizer, who finished eleventh in the Kentucky Derby (gr. I), returned to the worktab for the first time since then and breezed a half-mile in :49 4/5 over a track labeled "sloppy". It was nothing more than a maintenance work for the D. Wayne Lukas trainee, who figures to be a longshot in the Preakness."
"Also on the worktab . . . was Daddy Nose Best, who finished tenth in the Derby for Asmussen. The colt did nothing more than an easy half-mile in :53 flat, the slowest work of the day for the distance."
"One notable galloper at Churchill was Bodemeister, the runner-up in the Kentucky Derby. While he is under serious consideration for the Preakness, he has yet to be confirmed as a starter. If he does run, it is unknown whether or not he will breeze between now and then."
It has since been confirmed that Bodemeister will indeed start, but he will not have any workouts between now and the Preakness.
***
So now let us take a look at the potential Preakness field. In alphabetical order . . .
Bodemeister
Cozzetti
Creative Cause
Daddy Nose Best
Guyana Star Dweej
I'll Have Another
Liaison
Optimizer
Pretension
Teeth of the Dog
Tiger Walk
Went the Day Well
Zetterholm
A total of thirteen horses remain under consideration. Eleven of them will definitely start, barring injury or otherwise, but Liaison and Pretension remain only possibilities. It is unknown where Pretension will head if he skips the Preakness, but Liaison has been mentioned as a Belmont Stakes (gr. I) candidate if Preakness plans don't work out.
***
Entries and post positions will be drawn tomorrow. Unlike in the Derby, in which drawing a bad post position can ruin a horse's chances, the smaller field of the Preakness prevents the extreme inside and outside gate positions from garnering the nickname "deadly." Nevertheless, it is usually preferable to draw somewhere in the middle of the gate than on either of the ends.
It's difficult to say whether there have been any track biases at Pimlico as of late, for horses have been winning from the outside and the inside, and from on- and off-the-pace. If there has been a bit of a bias, it seems to be favoring speed on the rail. But isn't that Pimlico in general? :)
If there is a speed-on-the-rail bias, it would probably help the chances of Bodemeister, who will almost undoubtedly be the early lead. And chances are, Bodemeister will be on the rail as well.
But the bias (which may not exist) certainly doesn't seem to be enough to hurt the chances of Derby winner I'll Have Another, who will probably be sitting two- or three-wide in the early stages while just a couple of lengths from the front.
The next day of racing at Pimlico is scheduled for Thursday, which will be followed up by Friday's spectacular card that includes the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (gr. II) and the Pimlico Special Stakes (gr. III). If a track bias manipulates the results of those races, we'll be ready to take notice!
-Keelerman
(LAST-MINUTE UPDATE: Go figure! Shortly after completing this post, I read on DRF.com that Liaison has been declared from the race and will instead run in either the Belmont Stakes or the Californian Stakes (gr. II), the latter race being against older horses at Betfair Hollywood Park. Furthermore, Pretension has been comfirmed as a starter. It seems I just can't get this post finished before some fresh news arrives!)
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