With the Belmont Stakes now just ten days away, and with most of the prospective runners scheduled to turn in their final workouts this weekend, the work tab at Belmont was understandably a bit on the light side this morning, with only one potential Belmont starter turning in a breeze.
That horse was Guyana Star Dweej, who is expected to be one of the longest shots of all in the mile-and-a-half classic. Owned by Shivmangal Racing Stable and trained by Doodnauth Shivmangal, the son of Eddington breezed a half-mile in an easy :50.03, which was his first work since finishing second in an allowance optional claiming race at Belmont on April 27th.
As for I'll Have Another, he turned in another routine one-mile gallop under exercise rider Jonny Garcia. With no workouts planned between now and the Belmont, we will have to rely on his gallops to try and gauge how well he is training up to the biggest race of his life. All indications are that he is doing phenomenally well and should be sitting on another huge effort come June 9th.
***
In my last Belmont Stakes Countdown, I wrote, "It's probably too early to start looking for track biases that might affect the Belmont Stakes -- after all, the race is still twelve days away -- but with this [the Memorial Day racecard] being a huge day of racing, I wouldn't be surprised if the track is prepared for racing in similar fashion [to how it will be prepared on Belmont day]. So if every race on the main track were won in wire-to-wire fashion, we might want to look out for a similar bias come Belmont day."
Much to my surprise, a speed bias did emerge on Memorial day. The first grade I race of the day, the Ogden Phipps Handicap (gr. I) for fillies and mares, was won by pace-pressing It's Tricky, who just wore down longshot Cash for Clunkers to win by about a half-length. Awesome Maria, the heavy favorite, was unable to mount a serious rally after racing off the pace.
The next grade I race was the Acorn Stakes (gr. I) for three-year-old fillies, in which Contested opened up an uncontested early lead and coasted home from there to win by five lengths. Zo Impressive and Aubby K rounded out the trifecta after racing in third and second, respectively, most of the way around the track.
The final grade I of the day was the $750,000 Metropolitan Handicap (gr. I), where Shackleford took the race in gate-to-wire fashion despite running the opening half-mile in a blazing :44.73. Caleb's Posse did succeed in rallying from off the pace to finish second, overcoming the bias to be beaten just a nose.
The other main track races also showed serious evidence of a bias. In the first race on the card, a 57-1 shot was the pacesetter, and even the bias couldn't carry him to victory, but the eventual 1-2-3 finishers raced right behind him all the way around the track and settled the race between them in the stretch, with no one rallying from off the pace.
Race 3 was the next main track race, and once again speed dominated. Even Got Quiet, a 12-1 shot under Kent Desormeaux, sat just off of the early pace before taking over and drawing away to a nearly four-length victory under hand urging. Readthebyline did succeed in rallying from fifth to secure second, but was never too far off of the early pace. Fair Trade finished third after setting the pace. Smokem's Charm raced in fourth for most of the race and finished fourth. Bob and Jim raced fifth for much of the race and wound up fifth. The sixth, seventh, eighth, and ninth-place finishers all failed to rally whatsoever despite the fast early pace.
Race 6, the only other main track race on the card, was won by pace-pressing Buffum, whose dominating eight-length victory signaled that bias or not, no one was going to beat him. But most intriguing here was that pace-setting Star Harbour, who ran the opening half-mile in :44.90, managed to be beaten only a half-length for second by a pair of talented closers that should have blown right past him. Another highly capable closer, Gallent Fields, never rallied en route to a fifth-place finish.
In conclusion, I will be keeping my eyes open on Belmont day to see if a similar bias emerges.
***
A fascinating article by David Grening was posted on DRF.com yesterday, describing how I'll Have Another's trainer, Doug O'Neill, talked with Billy Turner -- the only living trainer of a Triple Crown winner -- on the subject of preparing horses for the Belmont Stakes. It's most definitely worth reading: http://www.drf.com/news/belmont-stakes-2012-oneill-consults-billy-turner-seattle-slews-trainer
-Keelerman
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