This is it. The race we have all been anticipating. For months, we have studied the results of practially every stakes races for three-year-olds in the country. Some of us have even studied the allowance races and maiden special weights. Occasionally, we have looked to the maiden claiming ranks for any horse that strikes us with potential talent.
We have seen promising contenders arise with victories in major preps. We have seen them fall to the sidelines due to subsequently poor performances or injuries. Slowly, bit by bit, the Derby picture became clearer, only to blur dramatically as shocking upsets occurred.
Horses like I'll Have Another, Bodemeister, and Daddy Nose Best appeared seemingly from nowhere, stamping themselves as major contenders with rousing victories in prestigious races. Others, like Union Rags, Creative Cause, and Hansen, have been major contenders since we first started thinking about the Derby.
Now it's time to make our final selections. All the time we have spent ranking the Derby contenders back in February is pretty much useless. It's been fun, but now it's time to get serious. This is the Derby. The post positions are out. The final field is set. The Oaks has been run. Let's take a look at the field.
UNLIKELY CONTENDERS
#1 DADDY LONG LEGS - As impressive as this colt's UAE Derby victory was, this colt may simply have too much against him to pull off a victory. Not only has he drawn the dreaded post position one, but he is going to find himself further off of the early pace than usual. In addition, his lone start on dirt yielded a very poor performance in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
#20 LIAISON - Just as I have tossed the horse in gate one, I am going to toss the horse in gate twenty. Liaison showed plenty of talent as a juvenile, winning the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) in an impressive performance, but he's disappointed in three starts this year and really looks like a major longshot. On the other hand, he seems to be training very well here at Churchill, and you never can count out Bob Baffert. Still, it's difficult to consider this colt as a contender in this very tough race.
#2 OPTIMIZER - This fairly inconsistent colt ran well two starts back while finishing second to Secret Circle in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II), but showed nothing last time out when ninth in the Arkansas Derby. He ran okay here at Churchill in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) last fall, and he's got a perfect post position for taking back and making one run, but there are plenty of other quality closers in here that have been more consistent as of late.
#9 TRINNIBERG - Now, I can see this colt setting a slow pace on the front end, kicking on for home, and hanging on for a minor share of the purse, but this colt has never raced beyond seven furlongs, performed dismally here at Churchill in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint, and figures to be pressed into a pretty fast pace. And he isn't bred to go this far either. But don't be surprised if he has the lead turning for home and doesn't give in as easily as expected.
MEDIUM CONTENDERS
#11 ALPHA - Welcome to a very long list of "Medium Contenders!" Alpha ran very well in the Wood Memorial (gr. I) last time out, closing fast to be beaten just a neck after checking hard on the first turn, but the fact that he missed some training with an injury has me a bit worried. He's looked fine in training since then, but I just can't consider him a win contender given the situation. But he does have a beautiful mile-and-a-quarter pedigree, so you never know. Win or lose, he shoud be coming strongly late.
#10 DADDY NOSE BEST - I have a lot of respect for this horse, for in his Sunland Derby (gr. III) victory, he was able to run down a loose-on-the-lead, horse-for-the-course in Isn't He Clever -- and that's definitely not an easy thing to do. Furthermore, he has been training at Churchill Downs for over a month, and he's looked great in his workouts. His speed figures are competitive, he's got a top jockey in the saddle, and trainer Steve Asmussen is due for a Derby win. But it is worth noting that a number of Sunland Derby starters have come back to perform dismally in their next starts, including Isn't He Clever and third-place finisher Stirred Up. This fact, coupled with the fact that I still believe this colt is better on turf, lead me to include in the "Medium Contenders" category rather than the "Top Contenders" division, although I certainly acknowledge that he has an excellent shot at winning.
#17 DONE TALKING - A lot of people are tossing this colt because his Illinois Derby (gr. III) victory came in such a slow time. But I've liked this late-running colt for a long time, and I can envision him picking off a late of tiring horse in the homestretch. I wouldn't be surprised at all if this colt makes his way into the superfecta.
#5 DULLAHAN - The big question here is whether or not he will take to the surface. By far his best success has come over synthetic and turf surfaces, while he has never cracked the trifecta on dirt. But that's not really a fair statistic, because he did finish fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) last year behind Hansen, Union Rags, and Creative Cause. He looked simply terrific winning the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) last time out, and although I haven't been thrilled with the way he has trained at Churchill Downs, there's no denying that he will be closing ground at the finish. It's simply a question of whether or not he'll get there in time.
#16 EL PADRINO - This colt was considered by many, including myself, to be a major Derby contender earlier this year after he won the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) in impressive fashion. However, a fourth-place finish in the Florida Derby (gr. I) last time out has caused him to drop off of most people's radars. But in that race, the colt -- who is more of a grinder than anything else -- was taken back off the pace while racing quite wide in order to keep race favorite Union Rags in a pocket, and when he was asked to accelerate in the homestretch, he couldn't muster the necessary run. He probably shouldn't be counted out of finishing in the top five, but his training hasn't been all that spectacular, and it's possible that he has gone off form.
#14 HANSEN - One thing is for certain, we will know at all times where this colt is positioned on the racetrack -- after all, who can miss this pratically white horse? Chances are that he'll be racing first or second in the early stages, preferably right behind Trinniberg going into the first turn. From there, it's simply a matter of how far he can run. He doesn't have the greatest mile-and-a-quarter pedigree, and he was tiring at the finish of the Blue Grass Stakes, but he did win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile here at Churchill last year, and it's possible that he will go to the front and just keep on running.
#19 I'LL HAVE ANOTHER - The fact that he has drawn gate nineteen is not going to help the Santa Anita Derby winner's chances. A speedy colt, he wants to be close to the lead early on -- which could lead to a very wide trip if he fails to out-sprint some of the other speedsters to the front end. Another thing that concerns me is the fact that his big victories have come off of lengthy rest periods, and now he has to try and turn in a career-best performance off of just four weeks rest. Perhaps he can do it, but I'm leaning toward saying he won't.
#12 PROSPECTIVE - Consider him my best longshot play. Sure, he didn't look all that great finishing sixth in the Blue Grass Stakes, but in my opinion, he just didn't look comfortable over the Polytrack. A return to dirt, over which he won the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) back in March, could be all he needs to return to form. Add that to the fact that he has been at Churchill for weeks -- training beautifully -- and you have to consider this colt a leading contender for cracking the top five at a huge price.
#7 ROUSING SERMON - The runner-up to Liaison in last year's CashCall Futurity, this colt disappointed in a pair of grade II Derby preps at Santa Anita this winter, then shipped to Fair Grounds and finished a late-running third in the Louisiana Derby (gr. II). I consider this colt a leading off-the-pace longshot like Done Talking -- he'll be passing tired horses in the stretch, but probably not threatening for the win. But you never know.
#18 SABERCAT - Like his stablemate Daddy Nose Best, this Steve Asmussen-trainee has looked good training at Churchill, but the fact still remains that he was soundly beaten in both the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) and the Arkansas Derby (gr. I) this spring. He's got enough juvenile back class to suggest that he could rally from well off the pace to secure a piece, but of the Asmussen pair, I prefer Daddy Nose Best.
#13 WENT THE DAY WELL - Hard to say what to think of this one. Racing for the same connections as the 2011 Kentucky Derby (gr. I) winner Animal Kingdom, Went the Day Well won the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III) last time out despite racing greenly in the homestretch. He has since trained well at Churchill Downs, but will add blinkers in the Derby. His biggest success came on Polytack, but he broke his maiden on the Gulfstream dirt. He's bred to stay a mile and a quarter, but is relatively unproven. I guess whether or not one considers him a major contender depends on whether or not you think he's got a big step forward inside him. Can Team Valor, Graham Motion, and John Velazquez work their Derby magic again? We find out tomorrow.
TOP CONTENDERS
#6 BODEMEISTER - Now we're getting into some really serious contenders. First off, let me say that I can't really see this colt getting a bad trip. He's got plenty of early speed to get himself into good position, and plenty of stamina to call upon in that crucial final furlong. He's got a Hall of Fame jockey in the saddle, and a Hall of Fame trainer directing his preparation. He does have the Apollo Curse hanging over his head (he was unraced as a juvenile; no horse has won the Derby with racing at two since Apollo in 1882), but perhaps this colt is simply talented enough to overcome his lack of two-year-old foundation.
#8 CREATIVE CAUSE - Should I pick him or shouldn't I? This colt has been at the top of my Derby list since January, but I have heard just enough rumors of issues -- true or otherwise -- to make me wonder if he isn't prepared for a big effort. Apparently, he has been jogging stiffly, but looks fine when allowed to stretch his legs and really run. Is it silly to worry about a little stiff jogging? Perhaps. What about the fact that he lost a shoe on the flight from California? Is that an issue? I'm leaning toward saying that none of this is really going to affect him, but the fact that he hasn't been wowing anyone with his training -- when he needs to be training like never before -- is having me re-think selecting him for the win.
#15 GEMOLOGIST - He's undefeated in five starts, and he's 2-for-2 at Churchill Downs. So why isn't he receiving more hype? He's a Wood Memorial winner! I have given serious thought to picking this colt to win, if not just for his perfect Churchill record. Add that to the fact that he has tactical speed, plenty of stamina, tons of determination, a top jockey, etc. etc., and you have yourself a colt that would be the Derby favorite in most years. The one thing that bothers me is the fact that he does "paddle" -- that is, his stride is slightly abnormal. This can lead to soundness issues. Chances are, it won't affect him in the Derby, but it is something to be a little concerned about.
#3 TAKE CHARGE INDY - There is no way you can toss Calvin Borel's mount, and when his mount is the Florida Derby winner, you've got to think that Borel is going to make the most of the situation. Toss in the fact that he has been training beautifully, and will be breaking from post three -- I may just have to pick this colt to win. He's got the pedigree to carry him a mile and a quarter or beyond, not to mention the fact that he seems to only now be reaching his peak. Can Borel win his fourth Derby in six years? We find out tomorrow.
#4 UNION RAGS - This is the horse that everyone has been talking about since last fall, when he swept to victory in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) at Belmont Park. He has really done much wrong since then, with the notable exception of his Florida Derby defeat. He's been training extremely well, and should be ready to deliver a peak performance. Julien Leparoux has been riding plenty of winners at Churchill during the last week. The colt ran well here at Churchill in last year's Breeders' Cup. Is there anything not to like? Well, he is a huge colt that needs some time to really get rolling, so if he gets trapped in a pocket rounding the far turn, it's possible that he won't be able to extract himself in time to get a clear run. Furthermore, from a speed figure standpoint, he really hasn't gotten any better from age two to three. These marks against him are minor, and I certainly understand those who are picking him to win. Even I have given it serious thought. But after he drew gate four, I have decided to side with others for the top spot.
***
That said, who am I picking? I still don't know. My final selection is going to depend of how the track is playing on Saturday. There didn't seem to be any bias this afternoon, but then again, biases seem to come an go mysteriously, sometimes appearing for no obvious reason at all. So if it becomes clear tomorrow that there is a speed bias overriding all other handicapping techniques, then I would have to lean toward Bodemeister. On the other hand, if horses started winning from off the pace while rallying on the far, far outside, I might want to take another look at horses like Daddy Nose Best and Dullahan, or even Done Talking and Rousing Sermon.
The weather could also affect my picks. If the skies were to suddenly open up and dump a ton of rain on to the racetrack, I would definitely lean toward Take Charge Indy, Bodemeister, Union Rags, and El Padrino -- the latter three because they have raced and/or trained so well over wet tracks, the former due to the fact that Borel is the master of Churchill in the mud.
But of course, I have to post some sort of selections here tonight, even if I do change them sometime tomorrow. So here I go:
1 Take Charge Indy
2 Bodemeister
3 Union Rags
4 Done Talking
What am I doing? I just left Creative Cause out of the superfecta! Perhaps all the research I have poured into handicapping this Derby has caused me to lose my mind. The colt I have had on top for weeks is not in my top four?
Hopefully, I will convince myself to put him back on top sometime tomorrow. I'd really like to see him win. But I have simply heard so many rumors about him that it has shaken my confidence.
So for the moment, Take Charge Indy is my top pick, although he is certainly not a confident selection. I would feel better about it if the track turns up sloppy tomorrow. If it doesn't, then I may switch to Bodemeister. Or Creative Cause. Or Union Rags. Or Gemologist. Or Daddy Nose Best. Ask me five minutes before post time, and I might pick Trinniberg.
I'm putting Union Rags in the third spot for now because I think he is going to get a tough trip, and I think he may not be able to accelerate in time to win. He should be coming late, but from post four, it's going to be difficult.
Done Talking? He's my longshot for fourth. I don't really see him winning, just cracking the superfecta at a huge price.
Now, here are J.R.'s selections:
1 Daddy Nose Best
2 Bodemeister
3 Went the Day Well
4 Alpha
J.R. likes the large Beyer speed figure Daddy Nose Best earned in the Sunland Derby, and feels the colt has another big step forward within him. Furthermore, he likes how well the colt has been training here at Churchill.
Bodemeister is his second choice, simply because he feels the colt will have the lead at the eighth pole and will be very difficult to catch from there. But with the Apollo curse hanging over him, he just couldn't see picking him to win.
Went the Day Well is his longshot for third, simply because he thinks the colt is ready to step up and run a more professional race while wearing blinkers for the first time. As for Alpha, he likes him for fourth based on the fact that he overcame such adversity to finish second in the Wood. He also really likes his pedigree.
***
Now, it seems that someone says this every year, so I might as well tack it on the end of this post -- this is the most perplexing Derby I have ever encountered. And I mean it! Usually, there are a number of contenders that you feel fairly confident in tossing out. But this year, it seems that at least three-fourths of the field have a shot at finishing in the superfecta. And take a horse like Gemologist. In a normal year, he would be the heavy favorite. This year, he will be no better than the third choice.
So let's sit back and get ready to watch what should be one of the most exciting Derbies in recent memory. Nearly every major contender has made it to the race. Nearly everyone drew a good post position. Nearly everyone has trained beautifully for the race.
Who knows? Perhaps this will go down in history as the greatest Derby of all time!
(Note: Be sure to check out our Kentucky Derby Handicapping Contest, in which one lucky handicapper will win a free copy of "The 10 Best Kentucky Derbies," published by Eclipse Press. Read the details here!)
-Keelerman
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