With the excitement building higher and higher as I'll Have Another's bid to become racing's twelfth Triple Crown winner continues, it's clear that the 2012 Belmont Stakes (gr. I) is going to be the race of the year. Will I'll Have Another accomplish what has not been done in 34 years? Or will he, like so many others before him, fall short in the Test of Champions?
Obviously, a race of this magnitude does not come around every week -- sometimes not even every year. So starting today -- and continuing onward until the day of Belmont Stakes itself -- I shall be posting more-or-less daily updates in regards to the race, focusing on how well I'll Have Another is training, whether jockey Mario Gutierrez is winning races at Belmont, any potential track biases that may emerge, and -- of course -- the dozen or so colts scheduled to face him.
So without further ado, let the Belmont Stakes Countdown begin!
***
Let's begin with recent training news. I'll Have Another was shipped to Belmont Park the day after the Preakness, a move practically unheard of. Most trainers prefer to keep their horses at home base until closer to the Belmont. However, trainer Doug O'Neill clearly feels that it is a valuable edge to get training done over the Belmont main track, which can be tricky for some horses to handle with its sandy surface. I agree. He galloped a mile and a half there this morning, and apparently looked great doing it. All indications are that he has come out of his Preakness victory in excellent fashion and continues to train well.
Union Rags and Dullahan, considered by many to be the two biggest threats to deny I'll Have Another the Triple Crown, both turned in solid breezes over the past couple of days. Union Rags went 1:01 flat at Fair Hill Training Center this morning in what was his first breeze since finishing seventh in the Kentucky Derby. He will breeze once more between now and the Belmont. Dullahan also breezed five furlongs, getting the distance in 1:01 1/5 on May 19th.
Also on the work tab May 19th was Atigun, winner of an allowance race at Churchill Downs on Derby day. The son of Istan, who will be ridden by Julien Leparoux in the Belmont, breezed a half-mile in an easy :50.23. He seems to be coming up to the Belmont in excellent fashion, and assuming he continues to train well during the coming weeks, he could be a very live longshot.
Five Sixteen, who will be a huge longshot in the Belmont based on his fourth-place finish in an allowance race last time out, breezed five furlongs in 1:00.91 this morning under Rosie Napravnik at Belmont Park.
Rousing Sermon, who finished eighth in the Derby with a rough trip, worked a half-mile in :47 1/5 at Betfair Hollywood Park on May 18th. He had been considered a Belmont Stakes contender following the Derby, but trainer Jerry Hollendorfer is now considering other options for the grade I-placed colt.
Liaison, the sixth-place finisher in the Derby and winner of the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) as a juvenile, breezed five furlongs in 1:00 flat at Betfair Hollywood Park on May 22nd. Trained by Bob Baffert, he could start in either the Belmont or the Californian Stakes (gr. II) against older horses on June 2nd at Hollywood Park.
The last colt to discuss is Alpha, runner-up in the Wood Memorial (gr. I) and twelfth in the Kentucky Derby. On May 19th, he breezed a half-mile in :49.17 at Belmont Park. His strong mile-and-a-half pedigree, coupled with his proven ability over the track, could make him a major threat come Belmont day.
***
Jockey switches on major Belmont contenders have been filling the headlines over the last few days, and it's gotten to the point where one can hardly keep track of all the changes!
First off, both Union Rags and Dullahan will be ridden by new jockeys. Union Rags had been ridden by Javier Castellano as a juvenile, and by Julien Leparoux during the spring of this year, but will switch to John Velazquez for the Derby.
As for Dullahan, his regular rider Kent Desormeaux is being replaced in the Belmont by Javier Castellano, who had been without a Belmont mount following an injury to his expected mount, Gemologist.
Atigun and Five Sixteen will also have rider changes for the biggest race of their lives. Leparoux has picked up the mount on Atigun following his removal from Union Rags, while Rosie Napravnik is scheduled to ride Five Sixteen.
***
A number of potential Belmont contenders have dropped out of consideration during the last few days, most notably Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II) winner Mark Valeski. The colt, trained by Larry Jones, had been considered doubtful for several days, and was pretty much confirmed as a non-starter today. The Dwyer Stakes (gr. II) on June 30th is being considered as a possible goal.
Rousing Sermon, as mentioned above, is also doubtful. It's difficult to say where he could turn up next, but the Affirmed Handicap (gr. III) on June 3rd could be a logical possibility.
Another colt to drop out of contention is Stealcase, who finished third in the The Cliff's Edge Derby Trial Stakes (gr. III) on April 28th. Trained by Mark Casse, the colt will instead point toward the Matt Winn Stakes at Churchill Downs on June 16th. The Travers Stakes (gr. I) has been mentioned as a long-term goal for the promising colt.
On the other hand, one colt that had previously been on no one's radar entered the Belmont picture today, that horse being Ravelo's Boy. Trained by Manny Azpurua, the colt ran fairly well in a pair of Kentucky Derby prep races this spring at Tampa Bay Downs, finishing fourth in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) and fifth in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II). He suffered a minor hoof injury in the latter race which required a bit of time off, but he has turned in numerous workouts since then and breezed a half-mile in a quick :46 3/5 at Calder Race Course this morning. According to DRF.com, Azpurua will make a decision on whether to run in the Belmont following a workout on Sunday. Jockey Alex Solis, who was aboard for today's workout, could end up as the colt's rider if his connections decide to send him to the Belmont.
-Keelerman
i have now same feelings that I'LL HAVE ANOTHER might not able to stand Belmont distance, i could'nt found any long distance stayer in his pedigree, and also there is no front runner in belmont stakes, I'LL HAVE ANOTHER has to take lead by himself, it suggests that there is possibility of tireness in him, so i think closest competitor will be Dullahan. i do not relay on UNION RAGS since he bflops two past races, probability of getting good strides are very little.
ReplyDelete