Preakness Stakes (gr. I)
1 3/16th miles on the main track
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | M. L. Odds |
| 1 | Tiger Walk | Ignacio Cortreas, IV | Kent Desormeaux | 30-1 |
| 2 | Teeth of the Dog | Michael Matz | Joe Bravo | 15-1 |
| 3 | Pretension | Chris Grove | Javier Santiago | 30-1 |
| 4 | Zetterholm | Rick Dutrow, Jr. | Junior Alvarado | 20-1 |
| 5 | Went the Day Well | Graham Motion | John Velazquez | 6-1 |
| 6 | Creative Cause | Mike Harrington | Joel Rosario | 6-1 |
| 7 | Bodemeister | Bob Baffert | Mike Smith | 8-5 |
| 8 | Daddy Nose Best | Steve Asmussen | Julien Leparoux | 12-1 |
| 9 | I'll Have Another | Doug O'Neill | Mario Gutierrez | 5-2 |
| 10 | Optimizer | D. Wayne Lukas | Corey Nakatani | 30-1 |
| 11 | Cozzetti | Dale Romans | Jose Lezcano | 30-1 |
As I did for the Derby, I shall break the eleven starters down into three catagories -- "Unlikely Contenders", "Medium Contenders", and "Win Contenders".
Unlikely Contenders
#3 PRETENSION - He is the only colt in this race with a win -- or even a start -- over the Pimlico strip, and for that I must give him some credit. But when pitted against somer of the better three-year-olds in the country, he finished fifth in the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) and ninth in the Illinois Derby (gr. III). He's got a fair amount of early speed, so it wouldn't be surprising to see him try and press the pace from gate three, but I doubt that he has the speed to really challenge Bodemeister early.
#2 TEETH OF THE DOG - I'm having a hard time putting this colt in the "Unlikely Contenders" catagory, seeing that he did finish a strong third in the Wood Memorial (gr. I) last time out. But his trainer has stated that he considers this race as more of a prep for the upcoming Belmont Stakes (gr. I), which makes me suspect that this colt isn't fully cranked for this spot. In addition, I won't be surprised if this colt tries to challenge Bodemeister early, which could prove disastrous, as Trinniberg and Hansen discovered in the Derby.
#8 DADDY NOSE BEST - This colt didn't really have any excuses in the Kentucky Derby, for he was able to secure a near perfect position early before failing to fire whatsoever, winding up tenth. His two previous victories were impressive enough, but I do believe that this colt is best on synthetic or turf surfaces, and the 1 3/16th miles distance of this race is probably a tad bit too long for him. Julien Leparoux returns to the saddle, which is a good sign, but overall I have mixed feelings about this colt.
#10 OPTIMIZER - From time to time, this colt steps up and runs really well -- you don't finish second in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) and third in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) if you don't have talent. But he is fairly inconsistent, and he has been beaten a combined 32 1/2 lengths in his last two starts. Perhaps his performance in the Derby was a bit better than it looked on the surface, and he has drawn a good post position for his preferred style of running, but it's difficult to see him stepping up enough to challenge for a superfecta spot in a race of this caliber.
Medium Contenders
#1 TIGER WALK - I have watched this colt all year, and despite his less-than-stellar finishes, there's something about him that makes me think he has hidden talent that he just hasn't displayed yet. I liked his bullet half-mile breeze on the 13th, and feel he could improve with the addition of blinkers. Gate one is obviously a question, but it's better than the outside post positions that he usually draws.
#4 ZETTERHOLM - He's got a pretty strong late kick that he has used successfully in three straight New York-bred races, including the Patsyprospect Stakes, and the possibility of a moderately fast pace today could help his chances. He doesn't have the strongest of pedigrees for the distance, being by Silver Train, but trainer Rick Dutrow has done well in the Preakness, and finished fourth in this race two years ago with another New York-bred Yawanna Twist.
#5 WENT THE DAY WELL - I was very impressed by his performance in the Derby, where he closed from far behind despite a poor trip to be beaten just 2 1/2 lengths. He has been improving with every start, and has trained well since the Derby, so there's not many reasons to think he won't run well. My only concern is that his late run in the Derby might have been more of an optical illusion formed by the tiring front-runners turning in such slow final fractions. This scenario tends to occur with frequency in the Derby -- remember Ice Box in 2010? Granted, Went the Day Well looked phenomenal in the Churchill homestretch, but he won't get the same pace setup today. Perhaps he is versatile enough to overcome it, and I will give him a great deal of credit if he is, but for the moment I'm leaning toward picking others.
#11 COZZETTI - This colt is perhaps just a bit underrated. He did run well enough during the spring to finish third in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) and fourth in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I), beaten little more than a neck for second in the latter race. Trainer Dale Romans is confident that the colt has more talent then he has displayed, and his :58 4/5 bullet work on May 14th signals that this colt may be sitting on a huge effort. Don't leave him out of your superfectas!
Win Contenders
#6 CREATIVE CAUSE - I have liked this colt a great deal since last year, and he was my #1 pick for the Derby for majority of the spring. I eventually jumped off the bandwagon for the Derby, mostly because I wasn't impressed with the way he was training. He actually didn't run badly at all in the Derby, winding up fifth beaten three lengths after going extremely wide on the far turn. He certainly won't have to go that wide today, and seeing that he has also been training well, and that the pace scenario of this race should be better suited to his running style, I won't be surprised if he adds a classic victory to his record.
#7 BODEMEISTER - What to do with Bodemeister? If he runs back to his Derby effort, then it's going to be difficult or impossible to beat him. With Trinniberg and Hansen out of the picture, chances are he will get to set a much slower pace, leaving him with more in the tank for the stretch run. The only concern here is that he may not handle the quick two-week turnaround, given that the Preakness will actually be his third race in five weeks. I'm sure Baffert wouldn't be running him here if he didn't think the colt was ready, but Bodemeister was primed for the race of his life leading up to the Derby and ran his eyeballs out. If he is the superstar that I believe he could be, then he won't have any issues with the two weeks and will add a Preakness victory to his record. If, however, he is just another very talented three-year-old, then he'll probably throw in the towel somewhere at the top of the stretch. I guess whether or not you pick him depends on how good a horse you believe he is.
#9 I'LL HAVE ANOTHER - There's nothing not to like about the Derby winner, who looked terrific in Louisville and seems to be training even better since coming to Pimlico. I like the fact that here are Pimlico for nearly two weeks, getting in valuable training over a track that some horses can have trouble handling. Chances are, he will have to challenge Bodemeister for the early lead to keep his rival from escaping with too slow an early pace, but he has the tactical speed to do that and the perfect post position to let him do the job right. Jockey Mario Gutierrez is going to have to ride him just ride -- applying just enough pressure to Bodemeister to tire him out, while not going so fast that he sets the race up for a closer like Creative Cause or Went the Day Well.
***
So who should I pick? My gut feeling is that Bodemeister isn't going to run as well here as he did in the Derby, where he had a speed-favoring, fast track to help his chances. Pimlico, while also a fairly speed-favoring track, didn't seem to have any bias yesterday, and probably won't today either.
So who does that leave us with? Well, if Bodemeister retreats on the far turn, or even at the top of the stretch, that would allow I'll Have Another to inherit the lead, and from that point on, I doubt anyone can catch him. But if Bodemeister hangs on longer than I expect him to -- say, he digs deep and doesn't let I'll Have Another past him until inside the eighth pole -- then I won't be surprised to see Creative Cause grinding away in the center of the racetrack to pull off a minor upset.
That said, here are my tentative selections:
1 I'll Have Another
2 Creative Cause
3 Bodemeister
4 Cozzetti
These selections assume that the track is playing the same way that it did yesterday -- somewhat tiring, without an obvious speed bias. These selections also assume that Bodemeister is going to tire somewhere in the vicinity of the top of the stretch. Should I notice any track conditions that change my opinion of how the race will be run -- or if I simply change my mind -- I will post my updated picks sometime before the race.
Now, here are J.R.'s selections:
1 Went the Day Well
2 I'll Have Another
3 Bodemeister
4 Zetterholm
J.R. believes that Went the Day Well is going to race much closer to the early pace today and finish up with a burst of speed to deny I'll Have Another and Bodemeister the victory, with Zetterholm rallying mildly to round out the superfecta.
Now, as has become a Triple Crown tradition, my hat has compiled its selections. Who knows which horses it will select today, but let me just say this: Line of David, Watch Me Go, and Went the Day Well have been it's last three Derby selections. :)
From the bottom up:
11 Pretension
Nothing too unusual about this selection.
10 Zetterholm
I like him better then this, but I can see why someone might pick him to finish tenth.
9 I'll Have Another
Okay. This is ridiculous.
8 Optimizer
Nothing special about this selection.
7 Cozzetti
Seventh wouldn't surprise anyone.
6 Daddy Nose Best
I guess the hat feels he'll rebound off of his poor Derby performance.
5 Bodemeister
Fifth? Perhaps I don't really like this colt to win, but this is a little bit unreasonable.
4 Went the Day Well
Nothing unusual here.
3 Tiger Walk
Okay. I like Tiger Walk as well as anyone else. But third? Ahead of Bodemeister, Went the Day Well, and I'll Have Another?
2 Teeth of the Dog
If Teeth of the Dog runs second in what is more of a prep for the Belmont, than he is virtually a lock to win the final leg of the Triple Crown. Clearly, the hat feels that is about to happen.
1 Creative Cause
Hey! For once, the hat has picked a low-odds horse for the top spot! Of course, it couldn't help but throw some longshots into the superfecta, but the hat actually has a decent chance at out-picking me for once!
UNDERCARD ANALYSIS
Race 3: Gallorette Handicap (gr. III)
1 1/16th miles on the turf course
The obvious favorite in this graded turf race for fillies and mares is Zagora, winner of the Diana Handicap (gr. I) last year. She began 2012 with a pair of graded stakes victories at Tampa Bay Downs, then finished fifth as the favorite in Keeneland's Jenny Wiley Stakes (gr. I) while attempting to rally into a very slow pace. Given that there does seem to be more early speed in today's race, she should have every chance to rally to another victory.
If Zagora is to be upset, then I believe that Laughing will be the one to do it. The lightly-raced favorite finished a decent seventh in last year's E. P. Taylor Stakes (gr. I) at Woodbine, then returned this year to win an allowance optional claiming event in terrific fashion at Aqueduct. She'll have to be sharp to defeat Zagora, but with her tactical speed and incredible late kick, I won't be surprised at all if she pulls off an upset.
Race 8: Maryland Sprint Handicap (gr. III)
6 furlongs on the main track
This evenly-matched race has drawn a large field of ten, so good look finding the winner! Any one of at least five or six of these runners has an excellent shot at winning, so if you happen to stumble on to the winner, it's probably more due to luck than anything else! :)
Hamazing Destiny is the narrow morning line favorite, based perhaps on his strong second in the 2010 Breeders' Cup Sprint (gr. I) and subsequent admirable efforts, but the fact is he hasn't won since September 2010 and hasn't been in the best of form lately.
Personally, I like Immortal Eyes, who ran second in this race last year. He is seven, and his best distance is probably 4-1/2 furlongs, but he has won six-furlong races in the past and possesses a great deal of early speed.
You might also want to take a look at Bandbox, a young sprinter whose best performances have come at seven furlongs. This race could be a bit short for him, and he hasn't raced since January, but he may appreciate the cutback and could get up for a piece.
Race 10: Allaire DuPont Distaff Stakes (gr. III)
1 1/16th miles on the main track
There are a number of quality fillies in this race, but to me, it's hard to look past Bob Baffert's Awesomemundo. The promising filly won an allowance race on February 19th at Santa Anita by 7 1/2 lengths, stopping the clock in the sharp time of 1:41.98. She hasn't raced since then, but Baffert feels she simply needs lots of time between starts. If she can repeat her allowance victory today, she will be tough to beat.
Another very logical contender is Absinthe Minded, a talented and consistent runner from the barn of D. Wayne Lukas. There's no denying that she has talent, for she has run second and third in the last two runnings of Oaklawn's Apple Blossom Handicap (gr. I), but the fact is, she is 5-for-11 at Oaklawn and 1-for-20 elsewhere. I won't be surprised at all if she wins, but she seems to be better at Oaklawn than anywhere else.
For a longshot, you should take a look at Pinch Pie, who is 10-1 on the morning line. While the majority of her starts have come on turf, her dirt efforts include a third-place finish in last year's Alabama Stakes (gr. I) beyond champion Royal Delta and It's Tricky. Expect to see her rallying strongly from off the pace.
Race 11: Dixie Stakes (gr. II)
Nine furlongs on the turf course
This is a tough race to analyzie, as usual, for it has drawn a large and evenly-matched field of runners. Smart Bid is the morning line favorite based off of his fine victory in the Fair Grounds Handicap (gr. III) two starts back, but is coming off of a seventh-place finish in the Mervin H. Muniz Jr. Memorial Handicap (gr. II). Air Support will also receive some support thanks to his victory in the Virginia Derby (gr. II) last July, but he has only raced once since then, finishing a somewhat dull fifth in a nine-furlong turf allowance race at Keeneland. Hudson Steele has a win over this track, and is making his second start off a layoff, but he'll have to turn in a career-best effort to win this race. Casino Host is in fine form, having won the above-mentioned Mervin H. Muniz Handicap last time out, and it would surprise no one if he triumphs.
This race is so evenly matched that I wouldn't be surprised if a major upset were to occur. Perhaps Trend, Humble and Hungry, or Boxeur des Rues could win? The first-mentioned colt is coming off of a pair of strong efforts in one-mile turf races at Gulfstream, and could possibly get the jump on his rivals.
Personally, I'm leaning toward selecting Hudson Steele or Trend, but I can certainly see any one of these horses winning. It should be a great race to watch.
Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
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