Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (gr. II)
Nine furlongs on the Pimlico main track
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Glinda the Good | Corey Nakatani |
| 2 | Disposablepleasure | Javier Castellano |
| 3 | Welcome Guest | Ramon Dominguez |
| 4 | Mamma Kimbo | Mike Smith |
| 5 | Oaks Lily | Julien Leparoux |
| 6 | Plum | Abel Castellano, Jr. |
| 7 | In Lingerie | John Velazquez |
| 8 | Wildcat's Smile | Rosie Napravnik |
| 9 | Zucchini Flower | Sheldon Russell |
The solid morning line favorite is Mamma Kimbo, from the barn of Bob Baffert. The highly promising daughter of Discreet Cat is undefeated in two starts, including an impressive victory in the Fantasy Stakes (gr. II) last time out. She possesses a great deal of early speed, which she should definitely be able to use to her advantage over the speed-favoring Pimlico main track. And with the Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith in the saddle, she should have every chance at extending her undefeated record to three straight wins.
Perhaps the only thing that could get Mamma Kimbo beat is an intense duel for the early lead, which is certainly a possibility given the number of front-runners in this race. One of them is In Lingerie, a lightly-raced filly trained by Todd Pletcher. The daughter of Empire Maker has won two of three starts, including a six-length victory in the Bourbonette Stakes (gr. III) on March 24th, her most recent start. However, her two victories both came over synthetic tracks, and her lone defeat on dirt, so it's possible that dirt just isn't her favorite surface.
Welcome Guest and Disposablepleasure are other logical contenders. The first-mentioned filly is coming off of a strong runner-up finish in the Comely Stakes (gr. III) to Broadway's Alibi, who came back to finish a close second in the $1 million Kentucky Oaks (gr. I). Given that she is a late-running type, the projected fast pace would certainly help her chances. Disposablepleasure showed great talent as a juvenile, breaking her maiden by eleven lengths and backing that up with a narrow victory in the Demoiselle Stakes (gr. II), but her two starts this year have yielded less-than-stellar efforts in the Davona Dale Stakes (gr. II) and Fair Grounds Oaks (gr. II). But she does seem to be rounding into form, and it's possible that she could find the competition here a bit easier to deal with.
If you're looking for a top filly with a decent chance at winning at an equally-decent price, then you might want to take a look at Wildcat's Smile. The runner-up to Disposablepleasure in the above-mentioned Demoiselle, she returned on April 20th to score a convincing victory in a seven-furlong allowance race at Aqueduct. Making her second start off the layoff, she should be even sharper in this spot and certainly has every chance at cracking the trifecta, or perhaps even winning.
Glinda the Good has been in excellent form this year, sandwiching victories in the Instant Racing Stakes and Island Fashion Stakes around a runner-up effort in the Sunland Park Oaks behind the ultra-talented but retired Princess Arabella. Nine furlongs could prove to be just a bit beyond her best distance, but this is a serious filly that has a lot of class and it would surprise no one if she runs well.
Zucchini Flower, Plum, and Oaks Lily comprise the three longest-shots in the race, with respective morning line odds of 20-1, 20-1, and 30-1. The first-mentioned filly won Aqueduct's Limit Stakes in March before finishing a distant fourth in the Inside Information Stakes at Belmont. On the surface, she doesn't appear good enough to be competitive here, but I'm sure trainer Graham Motion wouldn't be running her if he didn't think she would run well.
As for Plum, she won three of her four starts as a juvenile, culminating with a narrow victory in the Maryland Juvenile Filly Championship Stakes against fellow Maryland-breds. She began 2012 with a last-place finish in the Busher Stakes at Aqueduct, beaten only six lengths in a deceivingly good performance, the returned to win a 1 1/16th miles allowance race here at Pimlico by a half-length. Seeing that she has a win over this track and is a late-running type, she appears to be more than capable of outrunning her odds and hitting the board.
Finally, we come to Oaks Lily, who has spent seven of her eight starts competing in maiden special weight races, finally breaking her maiden last time out with an impressive late run at Keeneland. Overall, she has been fairly consistent, and she did finish second in a stakes once, but her lone effort on dirt resulted in a dismal eleventh-place finish at Churchill Downs. Julien Leparoux will be aboard, but I think her future is in synthetic track races.
So here are my selections:
1 Mamma Kimbo
2 Welcome Guest
3 Disposablepleasure
4 In Lingerie
And here are J.R.'s:
1 Welcome Guest
2 Disposablepleasure
3 Mamma Kimbo
4 Plum
UNDERCARD ANALYSIS
As usual, there is an impressive set of undercard races to be run prior to and following the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes, led by the $300,000 Pimlico Special Stakes (gr. III) and the $100,000 Jim McKay Turf Sprint Stakes. Let's take a look at who's running . . .
Race 8: Miss Preakness Stakes
Six furlongs on the main track
A field of nine was entered for this sprint for sophomore fillies, but two scratches have reduced the field to seven. The heavy morning line favorite at even-money is Agave Kiss, who is undefeated in five starts for trainer Rudy Rodriguez. She possesses a great deal of early speed, and should be able to make the lead without any difficult. From there, they'll have to catch her to beat her -- something no horse has been able to do so far!
The only other filly I can see winning is Millionreasonswhy, winner of the Matron Stakes (gr. II) as a juvenile. Last time out, she finished a dull third behind Broadway's Alibi in the Comely Stakes (gr. III) despite a perfect trip, but the cutback in distance should greatly help her chances. Expect her to be closing strongly at the finish.
Race 9: Jim McKay Turf Sprint Stakes
Five furlongs on the turf course
The morning line favorite in this evenly-matched turf sprint is Ben's Cat, winner of this race last year. He has had a terrific career, winning fifteen of his twenty-two starts, including six stakes races last year, and all signs seem to be pointing toward a repeat victory in this race. He began the year with a sharp win in the five-furlong Mister Diz Stakes and followed that up with a deceptively good sixth-place finish in an allowance optional claiming event, in which he checked at the three-eighths pole before rallying to be beaten just 2 3/4 lengths.
If you don't like Ben's Cat in this spot, then you can pick just about anyone else and have an excellent chance at selecting the winner. Ju Jitsu Jax, second in the allowance race which Ben's Cat lost, should have every chance at winning. And while Fiddler's Patriot is coming off of a seven-month layoff, he was beaten just 3 3/4 lengths in the Nearctic Stakes (gr. I) last time out. Even the veteran Awakino Cat could be in with a shot.
Race 12: Pimlico Special Stakes (gr. III)
1 3/16th miles on the main track
It may be a mere grade III race, but this historic race has drawn a field equal to any grade I event we have seen this year. Among the logical contenders are 2011 Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I) winner Toby's Corner, 2012 Texas Mile Stakes (gr. III) winner Endorsement, 2012 Donn Handicap (gr. I) winner Hymn Book, 2011 Kentucky Derby (gr. I) runner-up Nehro, two-time graded stakes winner and Donn Handicap runner-up Mission Impazible, General George Handicap (gr. II) winner Yawanna Twist, and 2012 Oaklawn Handicap (gr. II) winner Alternation.
As you can see, there are plenty of horses to choose from! I'm going to take a shot with Mission Impazible, who has been extremely consistent throughout his career while competing against some of the best horses in the country. He began 2012 with a nose defeat to Hymn Book in the Donn, the finished a distant second to Nates Mineshaft in the New Orleans Handicap (gr. II), in which the winner stepped up and ran the best race of his career while earning a Beyer speed figure of 113. I won't be surprised at all if Alternation wins, but his victory in the Oaklawn Handicap may have been due to the fact that he was able to get an unchallenged lead while setting a slow pace over his favorite track. Nehro, who tried unsuccessfully to close into that slow pace, should run better today with more speed in front of him.
-Keelerman
No comments:
Post a Comment