Thursday, May 03, 2012

KENTUCKY DERBY COUNTDOWN -- May 3rd, 2012

Two days until the Derby . . .

***

Once again, there were no Derby-related workouts, for it is much too close to the race for the horses to be doing any serious training. Nevertheless, there were a few intriguing gallops that had me fascinated.

By far the most interesting to me was the gallop turned in by Hansen, who is expected to be one of the front-runners. According to Mike Welsch of DRF.com, Hansen was "overly aggressive . . . rank to the point he needed the outrider's assistance to be pulled up." Here is the link to the complete article, which also contains a number of intriguing details on all of the other Derby contenders: http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-workouts-hansen-appears-rank-during-final-appearance-derby

Getting back to Hansen, the fact that he was rank got me to thinking. Suppose, with over 150,000 people in attendance, Hansen were to be rank in the Kentucky Derby. And suppose he got off to such a quick beginning that he outran Trinniberg into the first turn. Everyone, including myself, has been assuming that Trinniberg would be the Derby pacesetter, but what if Hansen beat him to the lead? What then? Would Hansen settle down and just keep on rolling? Or would he set a blazing pace that would fry everyone within six or seven lengths of him? It's certainly something to consider when handicapping the Derby.

***

So with the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby entries having been announced, we really ought to take a look at which jockeys have a shot at sweeping the elusive Oaks/Derby double -- that is, winning both races in the same year. The last jockey to accomplish the feat was (who else?) Calvin Borel in 2009. I believe, however, that it has only happened five or six other times.

Here is the list of jockeys that will be riding in both races, followed by the names of their respective mounts.
JockeyOaks mountDerby mount
Javier CastellanoGrace HallGemologist
Garrett GomezSummer ApplauseDaddy Nose Best
Martin GarciaEden's MoonLiaison
John VelazquezBroadway's AlibiWent the Day Well
Mike SmithSacristyBodemeister
Julien LeparouxAnd Why NotUnion Rags
Corey NakataniColonial EmpressSabercat
Jon CourtAmie's DiniOptimizer

In addition, if the Oaks also-eligible Oaks Lily were to draw into the race, then jockey Rafael Bejarano would have a chance to complete the double with her and El Padrino.
Among trainers, Bob Baffert, Todd Pletcher, Michael Matz, and D. Wayne Lukas each have a chance at winning both races. Baffert has Eden's Moon and Jemima's Pearl in the Oaks, in addition to Bodemeister and Liaison in the Derby. Pletcher has Broadway's Alibi in the Oaks and the duo of Gemologist and El Padrino in the Derby. Michael Matz trained And Why Not and Union Rags, while D. Wayne Lukas has Colonial Empress and Optimizer.

***

If there was a track bias at Churchill during this afternoon's racing, then it didn't show itself in any manner identifiable to myself. Horses were winning the main track races from on the lead or off the pace, from the inside and on the outside. Sometimes they dueled for the lead on the outside and held off the closers. Other times they set the pace along the rail and drew away to score convincingly. Still other time, they rallied furiously from far behind. I would say that the track was playing fairly.

As for jockeys, Calvin Borel won yet another race, meaning that he has won at least one race on every day of the meet thus far. Brian Hernandez, Jr. and Julien Leparoux each won a pair, while John Velazquez, Robby Albarado, Leandro Goncalves, Mike Smith, Javier Castellano, and Shaun Bridgmohan each won a single race.

-Keelerman

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