Saturday, May 05, 2012

2012 Kentucky Derby Update #7

Shackleford found himself in the winner's circle this afternoon for the first time since last year's Preakness Stakes (gr. I) when he turned back a determined bid from champion sprinter Amazombie to win the $400,000 Churchill Downs Stakes (gr. II) in terrific fashion.

It would appear as though speed is continuing to hold perform well here at Churchill. The pacesetter in the Churchill Downs was Will's Wildcat, a long shot that not surprisingly faded from contention around the turn. But Shackleford and Amazombie were 2-3 in the early stages and finished 1-2 at the wire while pulling well clear of the field in the homestretch. Now, Shackleford and Amazombie were clearly the two best horses in the race, and should have won regardless of any bias, but the fact that such quality sprinters as Smiling Tiger and Apriority were unable to make up any ground at all has me wondering if the track is still favoring speed.

It's also interesting to note that the final time of 1:21.06 was only 0.57 seconds faster than Macho Macho ran earlier on the card when winning an allowance optional claiming race. Either Macho Macho is a budding superstar, or the track has slowed down a bit.

***

The next race on the card is the Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes (gr. II), a one-mile turf race for fillies and mares. Ten had entered, but the "good" turf course caused three horses to be scratched, including one of the likely favorites in Aruna. As for the seven that will start, Daisy Devine and Marketing Mix will likely vie for favoritism, and probably the early lead, too. Daisy Devine won Keeneland's Jenny Wiley Stakes (gr. I) in gate-to-wire fashion last time out, while Marketing Mix has won four of her last five starts while tracking the early lead. Those to figure to set as slow a pace as possible and then kick on for home and see who's fastest.

Tapitsfly, winner of the 2009 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, has been in good form lately and will be an come-from-behind threat if the early pace is quick enough.

-Keelerman

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