2012 Kentucky Derby Recap

(My apologies for not getting this posted sooner! I have been very, very busy during the last week, and wanted to take the time to do a nice job. But better late than never, so here is my complete recap of the 2012 Kentucky Derby. Enjoy!)

***

On May 7th, 2005, a promising chestnut colt by the name of Flower Alley entered the starting gate at Churchill Downs for the 131st running of the Kentucky Derby. A slow start -- followed by one of the fastest paces in Derby history -- compromised the speedy colt's chances, and he wound up finishing a distant ninth behind longshot winner Giacomo.

Seven years later, a son of Flower Alley headed to Churchill Downs in an attempt to win the race his sire could not. Named I'll Have Another, the colt brought stronger credentials into the race than his father had. Whereas Flower Alley had won the Lane's End Stakes (gr. II) and finished second in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I), I'll Have Another was bringing a streak of consecutive victories in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) and Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) to Louisville.

But other than that, the similarities between the two were astonishing. Both were brilliant chestnut colts. Both had a great deal of natural speed, and with it, an inclination to be close to the early lead. And as it turned out, both father and son were forced to deal with some of the most brilliant displays of early speed ever witnessed in Kentucky Derby history.

Flower Alley had come to Churchill as a huge longshot, garnering almost no respect in the betting. As talented as he would eventually prove to be -- he won the Travers (gr. I) and Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. II) later in the year -- he never even got a chance to prove it at Churchill. The reason? A rabbit by the name of Spanish Chestnut was entered in an attempt to keep favored (and front-running) Bellamy Road from stealing the race on the front end.

As it turned out, Spanish Chestnut set one of the fastest paces in Derby history, ruining the chances of any colt within five or six lengths of his blinding pace. That included Flower Alley, whose speedy talents became more of a hindrance when he found himself only a couple of lengths behind the early leader.

And so of course, when I'll Have Another arrived at Churchill for the Derby, one couldn't help but wonder if a similar scenario would occur. I'll Have Another had been brilliantly handled by trainer Doug O'Neill of Lava Man fame. As a juvenile, he has shown promise when placing in a graded stakes race, but soon went to the sidelines with shin soreness. He returned at three to pull a shocking 43-1 upset in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, defeating such highly-regarded Derby contenders as Liaison, Rousing Sermon, Empire Way, and Sky Kingdom.

The next logical start would have been in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) one month later. But O'Neill instead decided to give his colt two months rest, instead awaiting the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I). During that time frame, he worked the colt long and fast. Six furlongs, seven furlongs, one mile -- there was no doubt that he would be fit for the Santa Anita Derby.

But many questioned the move at the time, including myself, wondering if it was the wisest of decisions. Perhaps the extra time would yield a the colt a Santa Anita Derby victory. But it would also mean that he would enter the Derby off of a mere one-month layoff. Given that he had won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) in such dominating fashion following a lengthy layoff, it would make sense that his connections would seek to avoid a "bounce" by giving him plenty of time before his next start. But if he ran big again in the Santa Anita Derby, would it not stand to reason that he would be setting himself up for a bounce in the Kentucky Derby?

All of these thoughts were surely considered by O'Neill. But after concluding that it was certainly the best of plans, he and the rest of the colt's connections continued on their way. Whether it deserved to be questioned or not, their theory of how to prep their colt for the Derby would prove to be sheer brilliance in the end.

Part A of the Derby plan had been completed with the victory in the Robert B. Lewis. Part B, a win in the Santa Anita Derby, also went smoothly. In that race, the colt settled kindly into the second position early on before finishing up strongly to defeat the highly regarded Creative Cause by a nose in the sharp time of 1:47.88.

On to Louisville.

The colt's training went smoothly leading up to the Run for the Roses. Two stiff six-furlong breezes at Hollywood Park were followed by a flight to Churchill Downs, where he would only gallop in the days leading up to the biggest race of his career. It was not the usual method of training a Derby winner. After all, the majority of trainers prefer to arrive at Churchill in time to work their colts once or twice over the Churchill main track, in an effort to familiarize their horses with the surface. But O'Neill clearly felt that I'll Have Another needed no such preparation.

And the lack of a workout at Churchill wasn't the only thing they would have to overcome. On the Wednesday before the Derby, I'll Have Another was assigned stall nineteen during the post position draw. And as everyone knew, no horse had ever won the Derby from stall nineteen.

Then there was his jockey. Named Mario Gutierrez, the young rider had begun his career in 2006, and had gotten off to a very promising start while riding at Hastings Park in Canada. Recently, he moved his tack to California in an attempt to make a name for himself on one of the toughest racing curcuits in the country. The plan was not going very well, but then his luck changed when he landed the mount on a huge longshot in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes -- a colt by the name of I'll Have Another.

Two brilliant rides later, Gutierrez had his first mount in the Kentucky Derby.

But there was one more obstacle to overcome, that being the presence of Bodemeister, Hansen, and Trinniberg in the Derby. A trio of ultra-talented front runners, it appeared very possible that a fast pace would be the result of their face-off.

Possibly a very fast pace.

Possibly as fast as Spanish Chestnut ran in 2005.

No one was questioning I'll Have Another's talent heading into the Derby. What they were questioning was his ability to overcome post nineteen, his speedy nature, and the presence of a trio of true front-runners. Then there was Gutierrez. Would he be able to guide I'll Have Another through these obstacles in his very first Derby ride?

The answer: Yes. Definitely.

At 6:31 EST on May 5th, 2012, the starting gates opened at Churchill Downs and twenty three-year-olds were sent on their way down the long Churchill Downs homestretch. Quickest into stride was the 4-1 favorite Bodemeister, who rocketed from the gate and emerged the leader in the early stages. Also in the early mix was Trinniberg, who settled into the second position on the outside while pressing the pace. Hansen was in behind them in third, followed closely by Gemologist and Daddy Long Legs.

I'll Have Another? He was being given an absolutely flawless ride by Gutierrez, who had tucked his mount into the sixth position early on, about four lengths from the front while racing with only one horse to his inside. To accomplish this task after breaking from post nineteen was simply incredible.

But would even a perfect ride enable I'll Have Another to win? Gutierrez had done everything in his power to get the colt into a good position early on, but there was nothing he could do about the pace. And it was fast.

Up front, neither Bodemeister or Trinniberg were about to concede the other the lead, and there speedy duel resulted in a blazing opening quarter mile of :22.32, the fifth-fastest opening quarter mile in Derby history. But they were just getting warmed up. A torrid second quarter in :23.07 seconds brought them to a half-mile in :45.39 -- the fifth-fastest half mile in Derby history.

Was the unthinkable happening? Would I'll Have Another, like his father before him, be done in by his own speedy nature? Would the months of preparation, big victories, anticipation, training, and dreams be rendered meaningless by a cruel twist of fate?

Never in his career had I'll Have Another successfully rated more than a couple of lengths off the early pace. Not that anyone really thought that he couldn't, but the facts showed that the one time he found himself farther off the pace than usual, he had failed to hit the board.

But in the Derby, it all changed. Under Gutierrez's careful ride, I'll Have Another was successfully rating eight lengths off the pace, the farthest he had ever been from the early lead. The :45.39 half mile would surely do in those setting it, and likely everyone within a few lengths of it as well. But not I'll Have Another.

From there, I'll Have Another and Gutierrez just had to stay in the clear and run like the wind.

Up front, Bodemeister and Trinniberg continued their destructive duel for the lead, running three-quarters of a mile in a scorching 1:09.80 -- the fourth-fastest three-quarters of a mile in Derby history. It appeared as though the 2012 Derby would end similarily to the 2005 version, with the front-runnings completely falling apart in the stretch while allowing the closers to rally for victory.

But during the next quarter of a mile, the almost unimaginable occurred. Bodemeister didn't stop.

All Derby logic states that when you run three-quarters of a mile in 1:09 and change, you tire. That's just the way it is. You can't run that fast going a mile and a quarter and still hang around for a piece of the purse.

But that is exactly what Bodemeister did. With another burst of speed, he turned back Trinniberg and Hansen to enter the homestretch with a three-length lead. The crowd roared, for the favorite was turning in the performance of a lifetime and appeared to be on his way to victory.

But just behind him, a brilliant chestnut colt was beginning a rally that would not be denied.

While Bodemeister was in the process of sprinting clear of the field, I'll Have Another and Gutierrez were splitting horses like seasoned pros. They surged past Gemologist. They surged past Take Charge Indy. They surged past Trinniberg and Hansen.

Now they were inside the eighth pole. Over 165,000 people cheered in unison, some for Bodemeister, some for I'll Have Another, some half-heartedly for the fading runners behind them.

200 yards to go. Bodemeister was still the leader. He had overcome an impossbly fast early pace, the late beginning to his racing career, and his own front-running nature to reach this point. He had accomplished what few before him had ever done, and what few in the future will ever match.

But in those final fleeting yards, the strain of all those burdens began to take their toll on Bodemeister. His stride shortened noticeably. Slowly at first, then quicker, his lead began to diminish, allowing a brilliant chestnut colt to drawer closer, then still closer.

100 yards to go. I'll Have Another summoned another desperate bid for the lead and surged up alongside Bodemeister. The roar of the crowd reached its crescendo. All eyes focused on the two leaders, who grappled alongside in a duel for the Derby. The longtime leader dug in tenaciously, and for a few brief moments appeared capable of turning back his rival and accomplishing the impossible.

But in those final yards, with the blood of Flower Alley flowing through his veins, I'll Have Another found a little something extra. The preparation, big victories, anticipation, training, and dreams all came together under the twin spires, sewn together by the brilliance of Gutierrez's ride. One final surge put him ahead of Bodemeister. A few more strides put him in the history books.

***

The complete order of finish was as follows:

1 I'll Have Another
2 Bodemeister
3 Dullahan
4 Went the Day Well
5 Creative Cause
6 Liaison
7 Union Rags
8 Rousing Sermon
9 Hansen
10 Daddy Nose Best
11 Optimizer
12 Alpha
13 El Padrino
14 Done Talking
15 Sabercat
16 Gemologist
17 Trinniberg
18 Prospective
19 Take Charge Indy
20 Daddy Long Legs

My selections performed only so-so. On my official "Kentucky Derby Selections" post, I listed Take Charge Indy as my top choice. However, as post time for the Derby approached, I took note of the seemingly speed-favoring nature of the track and switched to Bodemeister, as I mentioned in one of my Derby updates posted throughout the day. I ended up with the right horse, but while Bodemeister ran extremely well, he simply wasn't quite up to handling the eventual winner.

J.R. also liked Bodemeister, picking him to finish second, but his official top choice -- Daddy Nose Best -- failed to fire. On the other hand, he really like Went the Day Well, whereas I didn't particularly, and he felt good when the 30-1 shot rallied to finish a close fourth.

As for my hat, which made its yearly Derby selection, it selected Went the Day Well for the victory, so at least it did better than it has the last two years. It picked Bodemeister for third, Liaison for fourth, and Creative Cause for fifth, so it actually did fairly well with its top selections. But then again, it picked I'll Have Another to finish fifteenth . . . :)

***

Anyone who reads this blog with great frequency knows that I don't cheer much when watching races. Sometimes I might point out an instance of traffic to a fellow race-watcher, or utter the name of the leader to a fellow fan who happened to miss part of the race call. But cheering is just not something I do. Usually, I am too intent on watching every facet of the race to shout home my picks.

But occasionally, there comes a horse that simply stirs my emotions to the point where I forget about watching the race from a handicapper's point of view and simply start screaming out words of encouragement. Zenyatta was one of those horses. Awesome Gem is one of those horses.

And occasionally, a horse turns in a performance that astonishes me to the point where I just start cheering it home, regardless of who the horse is. It doesn't matter whether I picked the horse to win or not.

Last Saturday, I watched in awe as Bodemeister set those unbelievable early fractions and still kicked away from the field at the top of the stretch. Rounding the far turn, I will admit that the word "Superhorse" entered my mind. I felt like I was watching the legendary Black Stallion, or the great Dr. Fager. To watch a horse set fractions like those and enter the Churchill homestretch with a three-length advantage brought the cheers out of me.

But not without hesitation. At first, I uttered nothing more than a quiet "Come on, Bodemeister!" to myself, just a mere sentence of encouragement to a horse that appeared to be on his way to victory against all odds. But when I'll Have Another surged up alongside, I let loose a shout that only horses like Zenyatta can bring out of me:

"HANG ON, BODE!"

In the end, he didn't. He fell 1 1/2 lengths short. But for those few brief moments, I felt like I was watching the race of the decade. Thanks, Bode.

***

Now, we already discussed the trips that the top two finishers received, but let's take a moment to examine how the third-through-last-place finisher performed . . .

Dullahan and Went the Day Well both encountered a bit of traffic early on, especially the latter colt, but both finished up strongly in the stretch and clearly relished the dirt and distance. Creative Cause raced wide all the way around the track, losing ground throughout, but still was able to loom menacingly in the stretch before flattening out just a bit. Liaison completely outran his 56-1 odds to finish an even sixth, beaten seven lengths. Union Rags was bumped and squeezed at the start, forcing him to drop back some twenty lengths off of the early lead. He continued to encounter traffic thereafter, although he did finish up mildly well when finally clear in the homestretch. Rousing Sermon settled off of the early pace and was in the process of making a nice run along the rail when forced to wait for racing room behind a fading Take Charge Indy. Despite this, he re-rallied just a bit when back in the clear and would certainly have performed better with a cleaner trip. Hansen looked very uncomfortable and agitated in the post parade while sweating a great deal, and was rank during the early stages of the race. Seeing how much he had up against him, I thought he ran reasonably well to finish ninth. Daddy Nose Best didn't really have any excuses; he simply didn't fire. Optimizer raced along the rail all the way around the track but couldn't make up ground in the stretch. Alpha, like Hansen, seemed agitated in the post parade and broke awkwardly at the start. From there, he simply never fired. El Padrino settled into last place early on, trailing by twenty-two lengths after a half-mile, and while he did pass some tiring rivals in the stretch, he never really made up any ground on the leaders. Done Talking, like, El Padrino, raced well off of the early pace and passed tiring rivals. Sabercat raced off of the early pace and made a bit of a rally on the far turn, but ran out of steam and was well beaten. Gemologist secured good early position while racing in fifth, but seemed a bit rank and tired badly in the stretch. Trinniberg, as discussed above, dueled with Bodemeister for the early lead and tired badly in the final quarter mile. Prospective clipped Hansen's heels at the start, stumbling badly and nearly losing his rider. From that point onward, he was never in serious contention. Take Charge Indy secured perfect positioning early on while racing along the rail under Calvin Borel, but threw in the towel quite suddenly on the far turn and was all but eased. Daddy Long Legs broke beautifully along the rail and raced fourth early on, but tired from his efforts and was eased in the stretch.

All of the runners emerged from the race without serious injury. Take Charge Indy suffered an ankle chip, which may have explained his poor performance, but he is expected to be back to racing in the fall. Gemologist emerged from the race with a bruised foot, and will miss the remainder of the Triple Crown, but it is hoped that he will be back in time for the Haskell.

Obviously, for the winner, the Preakness Stakes (gr. I) and a bid to continue his Triple Crown quest is next. Here are the next-race goals or possibilities for the remainder of the Derby runners:

Bodemeister - possible for Preakness Stakes (gr. I)
Dullahan - Belmont Stakes (gr. I)
Went the Day Well - Preakness Stakes (gr. I)
Creative Cause - possible for Preakness Stakes (gr. I)
Liaison - Unknown
Union Rags - Belmont Stakes (gr. I)
Rousing Sermon - Unknown
Hansen - possible for Preakness Stakes (gr. I)
Daddy Nose Best - Unknown
Optimizer - Preakness Stakes (gr. I)
Alpha - Unknown
El Padrino - Unknown
Done Talking - Unknown
Sabercat - Unknown
Gemologist - Injured
Trinniberg - Woody Stephens Stakes (gr. II)
Prospective - Unknown
Take Charge Indy - Injured
Daddy Long Legs - Unknown -- has returned to Ireland

As we can see, as many as six Derby runners, include I'll Have Another, may return for the Preakness. True, only three have been officially confirmed, but I would say chances are excellent that Bodemeister and Creative Cause will continue onward to the second jewel of the Triple Crown as well. Hansen's connections are leaning toward skipping the race, but they aren't officially out yet either.

Newcomers that are possible for the Preakness include Cozzetti, Isn't He Clever, Paynter, Tiger Walk, Pretension, Brimstone Island, Zetterholm, Hierro, and Teeth of the Dog. Other contenders could emerge, but that is pretty much the prospective field as of today.

On to Pimlico!

-Keelerman