As promised, here is the second part of yesterday's post, this one concerning all of the three-year-old stakes races to be run on Sunday and Monday. As I wrote about this week's feature race in my last post, this post shall not include one. I shall merely continue to briefly mention all of the stakes races which I failed to discuss on my last post.
I shall begin with Sunday's races; then move on to Monday's. Enjoy!
SUNDAY, JANUARY 16th
There are three races on Sunday that merit attention, and I must admit that each and every one of them is worth noting.
The first race is the Dania Beach Stakes, a one-mile turf event at Gulfstream Park. A field of ten has entered, with the mild morning line favorite being Lil Bit O'Fun. The son of Langfuhr out of Dash of Humor has won two of his three starts, never finishing worse than second. He broke his maiden first time out going 5-1/2 furlongs by nearly four lengths. He then ran second in a one-mile turf allowance race at Keeneland, finishing five lengths behind the nice colt Banned while beating good colts like Grant Jack and El Grayling. In his final start, he won a one-mile turf allowance race at Churchill Downs by 2 1/2 lengths. This will be his first start since November 7th, but he should be in contention coming down the stretch.
Swift Warrior is the second choice, based off of his decent third in the Tropical Park Derby on January 1st. The late-running son of First Samurai out of Afleet Summer needs a good pace in front of him to set up his charge. Fortunately, a strong pace seems like a possibility tomorrow.
Adirondack Summer is another horse that interests me. He has made two starts, winning a maiden special weight first time out before finishing second in a one-mile allowance race at Aqueduct. On that day, he was bumped and squeezed in the stretch yet still managed to rally strongly enough to finish second. With a cleaner trip tomorrow, he might be able to pull off a victory.
The second race of note is the second race at Santa Anita, a six-furlong allowance optional claiming event for three-year-olds. Luckarack, who drew the rail, could end up being one of the favorites. He won his first three starts, consisting of a maiden claiming race, the Everett Nevin Alameda County Stakes at Pleasanton, and the Cavonnier Juvenile Stakes. However, he has turned in three consecutive off-the-board performances since then, including a seventh-place finish in the Gold Rush Stakes as the favorite last time out.
Chiloquin should also be well-bet, based off of his solid victory in a six-furlong starter allowance race at Hollywood Park.
I wouldn't ignore Drink at Buster's either, who finished a deceivingly good fourth in a 5-1/2 furlong allowance race last time out off of a long layoff. Don't be surprised if he runs better tomorrow.
The final race of note on Sunday is the eighth race at Fair Grounds, a six-furlong allowance optional claiming event for three-year-old fillies. The morning line favorite is Sam's Bliss, who broke her maiden last time out going 5-1/2 furlongs on the turf. She finished a good third going six-furlongs on dirt in his last start and should run a good race.
The second choice is Wicked Deed, who turned in a jaw-dropping late run to win a maiden special weight last time out. Two lengths behind the leader at the eighth pole, she rocketed past to win by slightly more than six lengths. I believe that with a solid pace to chase we will see a similar performance tomorrow.
Ellusive Wildcat, the third choice, could also turn in a good rally. From three starts, she has a win, a second, and a third. In her last start, a 5-1/2 furlong turf allowance race, she rallied from last of six to finish second. I will be watching her run tomorrow closely.
MONDAY, JANUARY 17th
Three stakes races for three-year-olds are scheduled to be run on Monday: the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes at Aqueduct, the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park, and the San Pedro Stakes at Santa Anita. All have drawn fascinating fields which warrant close attention.
The six-furlong Jimmy Winkfield Stakes has drawn a field of six runners, with the narrow morning line favorite being Rift, who drew the rail. He has made three starts, all of them in maiden special weight company and all of them coming at Aqueduct. He began his career in a 5-1/2 furlong event, running second as the even-money favorite. He then finished second once again in a six-furlong race, beaten just 1 1/4 lengths after leading at the eighth pole.
He finally broke through with a victory in his most recent start, a six-furlong maiden race. Sent off as the odds-one favorite, he broke well, took the lead, and never looked back en route to a 1 1/4 length triumph. It was a very strong performance; one which makes him the deserving favorite here.
The second choice at 9-5 is Fort Hughes, who began his career impressively by winning the 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight in which Rift finished second. The margin of victory was 5 1/2 lengths, which earned him a start in the Southhampton Stakes at Parx Racing. He made a very good run from fourth, but failed to catch Royal Currier by a head. I really like his chances here and believe that he can upset Rift.
Royal Currier is back to try and beat Fort Hughes again. He drew gate three and is the 4-1 third choice. However, I doubt that he will hold off Fort Hughes today.
The 6-1/2 furlong San Pedro Stakes drew seven runners, all of them filled to the brim with untapped potential. There are many that I will be watching, including Industry Leader, who drew the rail. He broke his maiden by 2 1/4 lengths first time out, defeating Pride of Silver, who will be running in the Sham Stakes on Saturday. He then ran second in the Premier Pegasus in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. III), a solid performance which warranted a step up in class to the grade I CashCall Futurity. Sent off at about 7-1, he ran a disappointing ninth. He is taking a step down in class here and should run better in this spot.
However, the colt that I really have my eye on is Sinai. On December 18th, he turned in a dominating wire-to-wire victory in a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Hollywood Park, turning back the challenge of Arousal in the stretch to win by two lengths. His workouts have been very good and if he can handle dirt he could turn into a very nice Triple Crown contender.
I will also be watching Indian Winter. The highly-promising colt won a six-furlong maiden special weight on August 21st at Del Mar. Sent off as the 6-1 third choice in the grade I Del Mar Futurity, he was forced to steady at the three-eighths pole but still managed to finish in a dead-heat for third. If he runs well on Monday, then he could become a legitimate Santa Anita Derby contender.
Arcadian is the final horse that I shall note. He is undefeated in two starts, having won a maiden optional claiming event at Turf Paradise by six lengths before easily dominating the 6-1/2 furlong Lost in the Fog Juvenile Stakes at that same track, drawing off to a 6 1/2 length victory in a sharp final time.
On January 10th, he worked six furlongs in 1:10 2/5 handily at Turf Paradise, which seems to signal that he is ready for an impressive performance.
Finally, we come to the one-mile Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park. It has drawn a field of seven, from which two horses have caught my eye.
The first is Archarcharch, who broke his maiden in the Sugar Bowl Stakes last time out. It was a very good effort and he strikes me as a colt that is loaded with stamina and should relish additional distance.
The other colt is Grant Jack, a winner of two of his six starts. Last time out, he upset the Springboard Mile Stakes at odds of 14.40-1. If he runs as well on Monday as he did on that day, he can win this race.
Dreaminofthewin is another notable colt. He won a maiden special weight second time out before winning a one-mile and seventy yards allowance optional claiming race. He seems to be rapidly improving and may have a good chance at winning this race.
And that is all. It took thousands of words, but I believe that I have at least briefly mentioned every race of note for three-year-olds being run over the next few days.
On a side note, Blind Luck, last year's champion three-year-old filly, will be running in the El Encino Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita on Sunday. She will be facing Champagne d'Oro, a two-time grade I winner, and Malibu Pier, who finished a good second in the La Brea Stakes (gr. I) last month. Don’t miss it!
Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
Saturday, January 15, 2011
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- January 14th, 2011
The upcoming weekend of January 15th and 16th is by far the best weekend for horse racing so far this year. Not that there has been much racing so far in 2011, but you get the idea. There are a grand total of 12 stakes races for three-year-olds which I shall at least briefly mention, as well as a few optional claiming races.
It was difficult to select this week's feature race, as there is a lot to choose from, but I finally settled on the grade III Sham Stakes at Santa Anita Park on Saturday.
FEATURE RACE ---- Sham Stakes (gr. III)
One and One Sixteenth Miles on the main track.
The Sham Stakes, named for the gallant colt that won the 1973 Santa Anita Derby, has drawn a field of five runners for the 2011 edition. True, the field is small, but I must admit that the field is nothing short of exceptional. Here are the entries. . .
1 Clubhouse Ride
2 Uncle Sam
3 Anthony's Cross
4 Tapizar
5 Pride of Silver
The favorite will likely be Tapizar. A son of Tapit out of Winning Call, he has made four starts this far. In his first start, he finished third in a maiden special weight at Monmouth Park. A second start at Monmouth in a similar race yielded poor results, for he stumbled and lost his rider.
However, his last two races have been rather good. In a maiden special weight at Churchill Downs on November 4th, he finished fourth behind Anthony's Cross after chasing the pace while three wide. Then, in his most recent start, he turned in a remarkable performance. Sent off as the favorite in a maiden special weight at Churchill Downs on November 27th, he rated just off the pace before blowing away his numerous rivals by all of ten lengths. He drew gate four for tomorrow's race, where he will be ridden for the first time by Garrett Gomez. He will be carrying 118 pounds, the same as all of the other runners, and is trained by Steve Asmussen. Tapizar has quite a bit of natural speed and should be able to get a perfect position in the early going.
Uncle Sam may end up being the second choice. A beautiful gray or roan ridgling by Tapit out of On the Town, he has only made one start, in a one-mile maiden special weight at Santa Anita on December 27th. On that day, he pressed the pace before bursting clear to win by 2 3/4 lengths in 1:36 1/5. It was a very solid performance which should set him up perfectly for tomorrow's race. I must admit that I am very excited about this colt's future. Trained by Bob Baffert, he is to be ridden by Rafael Bejarano.
Clubhouse Ride should be in the mix as well. The only horse in this race to have previously run in a stakes race, the son of Candy Ride out of Seeking Results has made ten starts in a long career. Although his two victories have come at 6 and 6-1/2 furlongs, his best performances have come in routes. The late-running colt rallied strongly to finish third in the in the $1,000,000 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III), a performance which earned him my respect. He was even more impressive in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I), where he rallied from last despite a rough trip to finish third at nearly 20-1. Should the pace be quick tomorrow, expect this colt to be flying in the final yards. He will be ridden by Patrick Valenzuela and is trained by Craig Lewis.
Anthony's Cross should also demand a great deal of money in the betting pools. He has made four starts thus far, all of them coming in maiden special weight races. Although he has only hit the board twice, he has been closing strongly against some very good horses. In his second start, going seven furlongs at Saratoga, he rallied from ten lengths back at the eighth pole to finish third, beaten only four lengths. The two horses in front of him were Astrology and To Honor and Serve. A late-closing fourth in in 1 1/16 miles race over Keeneland's Polytrack was followed by a pace-pressing victory in the above-mentioned maiden special weight in which Tapizar ran fourth. Seeing that Anthony's Cross is the versatile type, capable of pressing the pace or closing from well off of it, I would have to think that he has a very good chance of getting a good trip tomorrow. The son of Indian Charlie out of Screening will be ridden by Joel Rosario and is trained by Eoin Harty.
This brings us to the final entrant, Pride of Silver. A gelded son of Badge of Silver out of Ruggles, he has made three starts so far, all of them in maiden special weight company. He has yet to finish worse than second.
He began his career with a runner-up performance at odds of 24.50-1, closing with a late run to finish 2 1/4 lengths behind Industry Leader going 6-1/2 furlongs at Oak Tree on October 31st. This effort made him the second choice in his next start, once again going 6-1/2 furlongs. Over the Hollywood Park Cushion Track, he rallied mildly to finish second once again, 1 1/4 lengths behind Oakcrest Drive. Both performances were very promising, but there was something missing.
In his most recent start, the missing component was discovered—distance. Stretched out to a mile and a sixteenth, he rallied from fourth in a five horse field to score by an easy 1 1/2 lengths under very little urging. Although he may be the longshot in the tomorrow's event, I do believe that he is capable of running a great race. He will be ridden by Victor Espinoza and is trained by Robert Hess, Jr.
Here are my selections. . .
1 Tapizar
2 Uncle Sam
3 Anthony's Cross
4 Clubhouse Ride
5 Pride of Silver
This was a very tough race to handicap, for I would feel comfortable with picking any one of these runners to win and I truly hate to put any of them in the fifth spot. But one horse has to win, and another has to finish last, so I went with my gut choices. Tapizar may be one of the best three-year-olds in the country, and he'll get a chance to prove it tomorrow. Uncle Sam should improve in his second start, and Anthony's Cross is a very classy colt. I will definitely be watching this race.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
As I mentioned before, there are many astonishingly good races being run this weekend for three-year-olds. I will try to at least briefly mention as many as possible.
The first race is the one-mile Jean Lafitte Stakes at Delta Downs, which is being run late tonight. A field of eight has turned out, with the 7-5 morning line favorite being Decisive Moment. A son of With Distinction out of Lady Samira, the colt has won only one of his five starts, but finished a very strong second in the $1,000,000 Delta Jackpot last time out after pressing a fast pace. It was by far his best performance to date, and if he does as well tonight then he should win this race.
The morning line second choice at 7-2 is Su Casa G Casa. A son of During out of Seda Fina, he has won three of his five starts, including two stakes races, and has yet to finish worse than second. His victory in the Kip Deville Stakes at Remington Park was exceptional. Although he was beaten in his lone start beyond six furlongs, he should be in the mix if he can get away with a slow pace. That seems fairly possible considering that the only other runner who has shown any great interest in the lead is Decisive Moment.
Trubs, the third choice, also merits respect. He finished a decent fourth in the Springboard Mile Stakes last time out and should get an excellent trip from gate four.
None of the other runners appear to be good enough, although Expecting Cash might be in the mix. I will be going with Su Casa G Casa.
The seven-furlong Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs should also have an impact on the Triple Crown Trail. The morning line favorite is Manicero, who has won three of his four starts, including two stakes victories. In November, he won the Jack Price Juvenile Stakes at Calder Race Course by slightly more than eight widening lengths. However, in December, the front-running colt showed a new dimension by rating in fourth before slipping through on the rail to score by a length. Both performances were excellent and make him the deserving favorite for tomorrow's race.
However, my pick will be Read the Contract. The son of Read the Footnotes out of Devin's Abbey bled in his first start and didn't finish the race. However, his second start more than made up for his disappointing first one as he went wire-to-wire in a six-furlong maiden special weight race at Aqueduct, winning by six lengths in 1:10 1/5. The runner-up that day, Dr. Disco, returned to win a 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight by four impressive lengths, missing the track record by a fifth of a second. The record was set by a five-year-old gelding named Mr. Bourbon Street, who was carrying two fewer pounds while in an all-out drive to win by a neck. Based on these facts, I believe that Read the Contract is ready to defeat Manicero despite being the 5-1 morning line fourth choice.
Then there is the My Trusty Cat Stakes, the fillies' version of the Jean Lafitte Stakes. The morning line favorite is Grandacious, winner of two of her four races. She most recently finished a strong third in the Delta Downs Princess Stakes (gr. III) after setting the pace. However, I believe that this race is going to be dominated by the second choice, Flash Mash. A daughter of Smarty Jones, she is undefeated in two starts, having won a six-furlong maiden special weight in 1:10 flat and a six-furlong allowance race by ten lengths in 1:10 4/5, leaving the nice filly Tristanme is her dust. I will be picking her to win.
The next race of note is the California Derby, a 1 1/16 miles race for three-year-olds at Golden Gate Fields. A respected early Kentucky Derby prep race, the morning line favorite is Positive Response. A son of Pomeroy, he won the one-mile Gold Rush Stakes at Golden Gate by six impressive lengths. He should be right in the mix tomorrow. However, he drew gate eleven, which could potentially hurt his chances seeing that he is a front-runner.
Grand Manuever, second in the Gold Rush, is back for another try at Positive Response. He has drawn gate twelve.
One longshot that must be noted is Zayda, 20-1 on the morning line. He broke his maiden on January 1st at Golden Gate Fields with an incredible turn of foot, rocketing from twelve lengths behind with a half-mile remaining to score in a one-mile maiden special weight by 2 1/4 lengths. If he can produce a similar turn of foot tomorrow I would not be surprised to see him out rally everyone to the wire.
This brings us to the Santa Ynez Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita on Saturday. For three-year-old fillies, it drew a field of seven runners with the 2-1 morning line favorite being Zazu. Although she ran poorly in the Hollywood Starlet Stakes, Zazu finished a strong second to Turbulent Descent in the Moccasin Stakes on November 21st. If she runs back to that performance, she should win this race.
However, there is another filly who could prove too tough for Zazu. She is Plum Pretty, the second choice on the morning line. She broke her maiden first time out on October 27th at the Oak Tree meet, winning a six-furlong maiden special weight by a head in a sharp 1:10 3/5. If she can handle the dirt as well as she handled the synthetics, I believe that she can beat Zazu.
The Gasparilla Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs is also interesting. A seven-furlong race for three-year-old fillies, it has drawn eight runners. Devilish Lady is the morning line favorite, based off of an impressive eight-length victory in the six-furlong Sandpiper Stakes over this track last month. I can't see her getting beat here; this race is made-to-order for the daughter of Sweetsouthernsaint.
At Fair Grounds, the sixth race on Saturday merits attention. A six-furlong allowance optional claiming event for three-year-olds of either gender, the race has drawn a field of seven. The morning line favorite is Changing the Rules, who has made two starts so far. However, those two starts came in April and May of last year. It is apparent that the colt suffered a setback shortly after winning his first race. However, he showed enough talent in those two starts to be made the favorite tomorrow.
In his first race, a 4-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Keeneland, he was soundly defeated while finishing second. However, a little more than a month later he won a 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight by twelve widening lengths in a very sharp time. If he runs like that tomorrow, he should be able to win.
The second choice, Prime Cut, is also a fascinating colt. The son of Bernstein broke his maiden over this track last time out, rallying from just off the pace to win by 1 3/4 lengths. The final time, 1:12 2/5, was nothing astonishing, but he is obviously a talented colt who deserves recognition as a contender here.
Divine Music and Moonbie should also be watched. The former comes off of a good second to Herp in an allowance race at this track, while Moonbie won his only start by six lengths going five furlongs at Arlington.
Moving on, there is a pair of races at Oaklawn Park on Saturday that could potentially influence the Triple Crown Trail. The first is the seventh race, a one-mile allowance optional claiming event. The morning line favorite is Alternation, who comes off of a seven-length victory in a maiden special weight at Remington Park going one mile and seventy yards. It was a very good performance, and the ease at which he won was a remarkable. He deserves to be the favorite here.
However, the colt that I will be watching is Elite Alex. Trained by Tin Ritchey, who trained Afleet Alex to victories in the Preakness and Belmont Stakes of 2005, Elite Alex has only raced once. However, his one race was very good.
Sent off as the favorite in a five-furlong maiden special weight at Delaware Park, he rallied from just off the pace to win by three-quarters of a length. It was another 6 1/2 lengths back to the third place finisher. I do believe that Elite Alex is capable of great things.
The second race of note at Oaklawn is the eighth race, the Dixie Belle Stakes. A six-furlong event for three-year-old fillies, eight horses have entered, with All About Allie and Lady Giacamo the two favorites. The former began her career by winning three straight races: a maiden special weight, the Lady Razorback Futurity, and the E. L. Gaylord Memorial Stakes. Sent off at 11-1 in her most recent start, the Delta Downs Princess Stakes (gr. III), she ran a non-threatening fifth. However, she should have every chance to redeem herself in tomorrow's race.
Lady Giacamo is currently undefeated; a perfect 3-for-3. All of her starts have come at Lone Star Park. Her first victory came in a 4-1/2 furlong maiden special weight. She then won a five-furlong trial race by over five lengths before winning the five-furlong TTA Sales Futurity as the odds-on favorite. This will be her first start in six months, but I think that she is ready.
Now, unfortunately, this post is getting very lengthy. I have covered all of the notable races that are to be run tonight and tomorrow, leaving only Sunday and Monday's races to discuss. As I would like to get this post up in a timely manner, I have decided to turn this post into two parts ---- I will post my thoughts on the remainder of the races sometime tomorrow. Until then, enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
It was difficult to select this week's feature race, as there is a lot to choose from, but I finally settled on the grade III Sham Stakes at Santa Anita Park on Saturday.
FEATURE RACE ---- Sham Stakes (gr. III)
One and One Sixteenth Miles on the main track.
The Sham Stakes, named for the gallant colt that won the 1973 Santa Anita Derby, has drawn a field of five runners for the 2011 edition. True, the field is small, but I must admit that the field is nothing short of exceptional. Here are the entries. . .
1 Clubhouse Ride
2 Uncle Sam
3 Anthony's Cross
4 Tapizar
5 Pride of Silver
The favorite will likely be Tapizar. A son of Tapit out of Winning Call, he has made four starts this far. In his first start, he finished third in a maiden special weight at Monmouth Park. A second start at Monmouth in a similar race yielded poor results, for he stumbled and lost his rider.
However, his last two races have been rather good. In a maiden special weight at Churchill Downs on November 4th, he finished fourth behind Anthony's Cross after chasing the pace while three wide. Then, in his most recent start, he turned in a remarkable performance. Sent off as the favorite in a maiden special weight at Churchill Downs on November 27th, he rated just off the pace before blowing away his numerous rivals by all of ten lengths. He drew gate four for tomorrow's race, where he will be ridden for the first time by Garrett Gomez. He will be carrying 118 pounds, the same as all of the other runners, and is trained by Steve Asmussen. Tapizar has quite a bit of natural speed and should be able to get a perfect position in the early going.
Uncle Sam may end up being the second choice. A beautiful gray or roan ridgling by Tapit out of On the Town, he has only made one start, in a one-mile maiden special weight at Santa Anita on December 27th. On that day, he pressed the pace before bursting clear to win by 2 3/4 lengths in 1:36 1/5. It was a very solid performance which should set him up perfectly for tomorrow's race. I must admit that I am very excited about this colt's future. Trained by Bob Baffert, he is to be ridden by Rafael Bejarano.
Clubhouse Ride should be in the mix as well. The only horse in this race to have previously run in a stakes race, the son of Candy Ride out of Seeking Results has made ten starts in a long career. Although his two victories have come at 6 and 6-1/2 furlongs, his best performances have come in routes. The late-running colt rallied strongly to finish third in the in the $1,000,000 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III), a performance which earned him my respect. He was even more impressive in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I), where he rallied from last despite a rough trip to finish third at nearly 20-1. Should the pace be quick tomorrow, expect this colt to be flying in the final yards. He will be ridden by Patrick Valenzuela and is trained by Craig Lewis.
Anthony's Cross should also demand a great deal of money in the betting pools. He has made four starts thus far, all of them coming in maiden special weight races. Although he has only hit the board twice, he has been closing strongly against some very good horses. In his second start, going seven furlongs at Saratoga, he rallied from ten lengths back at the eighth pole to finish third, beaten only four lengths. The two horses in front of him were Astrology and To Honor and Serve. A late-closing fourth in in 1 1/16 miles race over Keeneland's Polytrack was followed by a pace-pressing victory in the above-mentioned maiden special weight in which Tapizar ran fourth. Seeing that Anthony's Cross is the versatile type, capable of pressing the pace or closing from well off of it, I would have to think that he has a very good chance of getting a good trip tomorrow. The son of Indian Charlie out of Screening will be ridden by Joel Rosario and is trained by Eoin Harty.
This brings us to the final entrant, Pride of Silver. A gelded son of Badge of Silver out of Ruggles, he has made three starts so far, all of them in maiden special weight company. He has yet to finish worse than second.
He began his career with a runner-up performance at odds of 24.50-1, closing with a late run to finish 2 1/4 lengths behind Industry Leader going 6-1/2 furlongs at Oak Tree on October 31st. This effort made him the second choice in his next start, once again going 6-1/2 furlongs. Over the Hollywood Park Cushion Track, he rallied mildly to finish second once again, 1 1/4 lengths behind Oakcrest Drive. Both performances were very promising, but there was something missing.
In his most recent start, the missing component was discovered—distance. Stretched out to a mile and a sixteenth, he rallied from fourth in a five horse field to score by an easy 1 1/2 lengths under very little urging. Although he may be the longshot in the tomorrow's event, I do believe that he is capable of running a great race. He will be ridden by Victor Espinoza and is trained by Robert Hess, Jr.
Here are my selections. . .
1 Tapizar
2 Uncle Sam
3 Anthony's Cross
4 Clubhouse Ride
5 Pride of Silver
This was a very tough race to handicap, for I would feel comfortable with picking any one of these runners to win and I truly hate to put any of them in the fifth spot. But one horse has to win, and another has to finish last, so I went with my gut choices. Tapizar may be one of the best three-year-olds in the country, and he'll get a chance to prove it tomorrow. Uncle Sam should improve in his second start, and Anthony's Cross is a very classy colt. I will definitely be watching this race.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
As I mentioned before, there are many astonishingly good races being run this weekend for three-year-olds. I will try to at least briefly mention as many as possible.
The first race is the one-mile Jean Lafitte Stakes at Delta Downs, which is being run late tonight. A field of eight has turned out, with the 7-5 morning line favorite being Decisive Moment. A son of With Distinction out of Lady Samira, the colt has won only one of his five starts, but finished a very strong second in the $1,000,000 Delta Jackpot last time out after pressing a fast pace. It was by far his best performance to date, and if he does as well tonight then he should win this race.
The morning line second choice at 7-2 is Su Casa G Casa. A son of During out of Seda Fina, he has won three of his five starts, including two stakes races, and has yet to finish worse than second. His victory in the Kip Deville Stakes at Remington Park was exceptional. Although he was beaten in his lone start beyond six furlongs, he should be in the mix if he can get away with a slow pace. That seems fairly possible considering that the only other runner who has shown any great interest in the lead is Decisive Moment.
Trubs, the third choice, also merits respect. He finished a decent fourth in the Springboard Mile Stakes last time out and should get an excellent trip from gate four.
None of the other runners appear to be good enough, although Expecting Cash might be in the mix. I will be going with Su Casa G Casa.
The seven-furlong Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs should also have an impact on the Triple Crown Trail. The morning line favorite is Manicero, who has won three of his four starts, including two stakes victories. In November, he won the Jack Price Juvenile Stakes at Calder Race Course by slightly more than eight widening lengths. However, in December, the front-running colt showed a new dimension by rating in fourth before slipping through on the rail to score by a length. Both performances were excellent and make him the deserving favorite for tomorrow's race.
However, my pick will be Read the Contract. The son of Read the Footnotes out of Devin's Abbey bled in his first start and didn't finish the race. However, his second start more than made up for his disappointing first one as he went wire-to-wire in a six-furlong maiden special weight race at Aqueduct, winning by six lengths in 1:10 1/5. The runner-up that day, Dr. Disco, returned to win a 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight by four impressive lengths, missing the track record by a fifth of a second. The record was set by a five-year-old gelding named Mr. Bourbon Street, who was carrying two fewer pounds while in an all-out drive to win by a neck. Based on these facts, I believe that Read the Contract is ready to defeat Manicero despite being the 5-1 morning line fourth choice.
Then there is the My Trusty Cat Stakes, the fillies' version of the Jean Lafitte Stakes. The morning line favorite is Grandacious, winner of two of her four races. She most recently finished a strong third in the Delta Downs Princess Stakes (gr. III) after setting the pace. However, I believe that this race is going to be dominated by the second choice, Flash Mash. A daughter of Smarty Jones, she is undefeated in two starts, having won a six-furlong maiden special weight in 1:10 flat and a six-furlong allowance race by ten lengths in 1:10 4/5, leaving the nice filly Tristanme is her dust. I will be picking her to win.
The next race of note is the California Derby, a 1 1/16 miles race for three-year-olds at Golden Gate Fields. A respected early Kentucky Derby prep race, the morning line favorite is Positive Response. A son of Pomeroy, he won the one-mile Gold Rush Stakes at Golden Gate by six impressive lengths. He should be right in the mix tomorrow. However, he drew gate eleven, which could potentially hurt his chances seeing that he is a front-runner.
Grand Manuever, second in the Gold Rush, is back for another try at Positive Response. He has drawn gate twelve.
One longshot that must be noted is Zayda, 20-1 on the morning line. He broke his maiden on January 1st at Golden Gate Fields with an incredible turn of foot, rocketing from twelve lengths behind with a half-mile remaining to score in a one-mile maiden special weight by 2 1/4 lengths. If he can produce a similar turn of foot tomorrow I would not be surprised to see him out rally everyone to the wire.
This brings us to the Santa Ynez Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita on Saturday. For three-year-old fillies, it drew a field of seven runners with the 2-1 morning line favorite being Zazu. Although she ran poorly in the Hollywood Starlet Stakes, Zazu finished a strong second to Turbulent Descent in the Moccasin Stakes on November 21st. If she runs back to that performance, she should win this race.
However, there is another filly who could prove too tough for Zazu. She is Plum Pretty, the second choice on the morning line. She broke her maiden first time out on October 27th at the Oak Tree meet, winning a six-furlong maiden special weight by a head in a sharp 1:10 3/5. If she can handle the dirt as well as she handled the synthetics, I believe that she can beat Zazu.
The Gasparilla Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs is also interesting. A seven-furlong race for three-year-old fillies, it has drawn eight runners. Devilish Lady is the morning line favorite, based off of an impressive eight-length victory in the six-furlong Sandpiper Stakes over this track last month. I can't see her getting beat here; this race is made-to-order for the daughter of Sweetsouthernsaint.
At Fair Grounds, the sixth race on Saturday merits attention. A six-furlong allowance optional claiming event for three-year-olds of either gender, the race has drawn a field of seven. The morning line favorite is Changing the Rules, who has made two starts so far. However, those two starts came in April and May of last year. It is apparent that the colt suffered a setback shortly after winning his first race. However, he showed enough talent in those two starts to be made the favorite tomorrow.
In his first race, a 4-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Keeneland, he was soundly defeated while finishing second. However, a little more than a month later he won a 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight by twelve widening lengths in a very sharp time. If he runs like that tomorrow, he should be able to win.
The second choice, Prime Cut, is also a fascinating colt. The son of Bernstein broke his maiden over this track last time out, rallying from just off the pace to win by 1 3/4 lengths. The final time, 1:12 2/5, was nothing astonishing, but he is obviously a talented colt who deserves recognition as a contender here.
Divine Music and Moonbie should also be watched. The former comes off of a good second to Herp in an allowance race at this track, while Moonbie won his only start by six lengths going five furlongs at Arlington.
Moving on, there is a pair of races at Oaklawn Park on Saturday that could potentially influence the Triple Crown Trail. The first is the seventh race, a one-mile allowance optional claiming event. The morning line favorite is Alternation, who comes off of a seven-length victory in a maiden special weight at Remington Park going one mile and seventy yards. It was a very good performance, and the ease at which he won was a remarkable. He deserves to be the favorite here.
However, the colt that I will be watching is Elite Alex. Trained by Tin Ritchey, who trained Afleet Alex to victories in the Preakness and Belmont Stakes of 2005, Elite Alex has only raced once. However, his one race was very good.
Sent off as the favorite in a five-furlong maiden special weight at Delaware Park, he rallied from just off the pace to win by three-quarters of a length. It was another 6 1/2 lengths back to the third place finisher. I do believe that Elite Alex is capable of great things.
The second race of note at Oaklawn is the eighth race, the Dixie Belle Stakes. A six-furlong event for three-year-old fillies, eight horses have entered, with All About Allie and Lady Giacamo the two favorites. The former began her career by winning three straight races: a maiden special weight, the Lady Razorback Futurity, and the E. L. Gaylord Memorial Stakes. Sent off at 11-1 in her most recent start, the Delta Downs Princess Stakes (gr. III), she ran a non-threatening fifth. However, she should have every chance to redeem herself in tomorrow's race.
Lady Giacamo is currently undefeated; a perfect 3-for-3. All of her starts have come at Lone Star Park. Her first victory came in a 4-1/2 furlong maiden special weight. She then won a five-furlong trial race by over five lengths before winning the five-furlong TTA Sales Futurity as the odds-on favorite. This will be her first start in six months, but I think that she is ready.
Now, unfortunately, this post is getting very lengthy. I have covered all of the notable races that are to be run tonight and tomorrow, leaving only Sunday and Monday's races to discuss. As I would like to get this post up in a timely manner, I have decided to turn this post into two parts ---- I will post my thoughts on the remainder of the races sometime tomorrow. Until then, enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- January 11th, 2011 ---- Race Recaps
The Kentucky Derby is almost here! . . . Okay, that's a stretch. It's only January. I'll have to wait until February before I can say that it is almost here. :-)
Getting serious, there were several fascinating races run last weekend, with the grade III Santa Ysabel Stakes being most important due to its graded status. However, the race that may end up having the most influence on the Triple Crown was an allowance race last Friday at Gulfstream Park. But before I get to it, I must recap the feature race from last week, the aforementioned Santa Ysabel.
FEATURE RACE RECAP ---- The Santa Ysabel Stakes (gr. III)
The field for this graded stakes race was short to begin with, as only five fillies had entered. It became even shorter when two of them scratched, leaving only three runners in the race.
The heavy favorite, at 1-20, was May Day Rose. She was coming off of a good fourth behind Turbulent Descent in the Hollywood Starlet Stakes and was making a drop in class. Although she did not win like a 1-20 shot should, she still coasted home in a fairly easy performance.
Scarlet Starlet, the longshot at nearly 25-1, broke fastest but May Day Rose was quickly sent to the lead by Rafael Bejarano. Scarlet Starlet was content to sit back in second, a length in front of Bluegrass Chatter.
They continued in this order for much of the remainder of the race. Through fractions of :23 2/5, :47 2/5, and 1:11 2/5 the only thing that changed was the distance between the three horses. With five-sixteenths of a mile to run, May Day Rose held a half-length advantage over Scarlet Starlet. Bluegrass Chatter was another 1 1/2 lengths behind her.
May Day Rose then accelerated away from Scarlet Starlet and drew off to a 2 1/2 length lead at the eighth pole. She appeared to be on her way to an easy victory, but Bluegrass Chatter was beginning to rally. Although the latter closed fairly well, she never threatened May Day Rose, who hung on for a 1 1/4 length victory. Scarlet Starlet finished third, beaten just a neck for second and a 1 1/4 lengths for everything.
So the results were. . .
1 May Day Rose
2 Bluegrass Chatter
3 Scarlet Starlet
. . . and here were my picks.
1 May Day Rose
2 Bluegrass Chatter
3 Plum Pretty (scratched)
4 Zazu (scratched)
5 Scarlet Starlet
Therefore, I managed to pick the exact order of finish. Of course, just about everybody else did too, but still. . .
OTHER RACE RECAPS
As I mentioned above, there was an allowance race at Gulfstream Park on Friday that may yield a serious Triple Crown contender or two.
The race was one-mile in distance over the main track. A field of nine was entered, with Shadow Warrior the mild favorite at 2.10-1. El Grayling was also well liked at 2.70-1 and Black N Beauty was respected at 2.90-1.
Fastest out of the gate was El Grayling, but he wanted no part in the lead, taking back to seventh in the early going. It ended up being Black N Beauty who set the pace despite breaking eighth. He was followed by Dr. Tom G and Hammock Beach, the fifth and sixth choices respectively. Printing Press, at 4.70-1, was biding his time in fourth while Shadow Warrior raced sixth.
The pace was quite honest, with Black N Beauty playing a game of catch-me-if-you-can while carving fractions of :24 1/5 and :46 4/5. Under Kent Desormeaux, he continued to lead the way by a length until the quarter pole. Having run three quarters of a mile in 1:12 flat, it would have been no surprise to see him fade. After all, Printing Press, Shadow Warrior, and El Grayling were all lined up behind him making their bids and it would be very difficult to stem them off.
However, it is obvious that Black N Beauty is a nice horse, for not only did he stem off all of their runs but actually drew away throughout the stretch. He hit the wire 2 1/2 lengths in front of Printing Press, who finished a decisive 2 3/4 lengths clear of Shadow Warrior. A neck behind the latter was El Grayling, who just missed third by a neck. No other runner was within six lengths of the leading quartet.
Understandably, Black N Beauty did finish the race rather slowly, completing his last quarter mile in :25.46 and his last half-mile in :50.57. However, his :46 4/5 opening half mile was very good indeed. The performance likely earned him a spot in the Fountain of Youth Stakes next month, where we will likely learn just how talented he is.
The final race that must be mentioned is the Spectacular Bid Stakes, which was run on Saturday at Gulfstream Park. A six-furlong main track event, it drew eight runners with the favorite being Gangsterontherun. Leave of Absence and Cane Garden Bay were also well bet. However, none of them would win.
Cane Garden Bay broke fastest, but it was Gangsterontherun who raced away to take the early lead. He rattled off a testing :21 3/5 opening quarter mile while clearing the field by over a length. His closest pursuer was Determinato, a 14-1 shot. Cane Garden Bay and Leave of Absence were racing in fifth and sixth respectively.
Gangsteronthrun continued to lead the way through a half-mile in :44 3/5. However, he was then tackled by Determinato, who wrestled the lead away from the formed passing the eighth pole. Leave of Absence and Cane Garden Bay were rallying, but they both appeared to be soundly beaten.
Inside the eighth pole Gangsterontherun gave way, leaving Determinato on the lead. Leave of Absence charged relentlessly in the stretch, but fell 1 1/4 lengths short. Leave of Absence managed to rally for third, just nosing out Gangsterontherun for that spot. War For Gus, a 19-1 shot, finished fifth after staying fairly close to the pace.
Next Saturday the first really important Triple Crown prep race will be run, as Tapizar and Anthony's Cross take on each other in the Sham Stakes (gr. III). There will be several other strong prep races as well, including the grade II Santa Ynez Stakes for fillies and the Pasco Stakes for colts at Tampa Bay Downs. It's going to be the best weekend of 2011 so far!
-Keelerman
Getting serious, there were several fascinating races run last weekend, with the grade III Santa Ysabel Stakes being most important due to its graded status. However, the race that may end up having the most influence on the Triple Crown was an allowance race last Friday at Gulfstream Park. But before I get to it, I must recap the feature race from last week, the aforementioned Santa Ysabel.
FEATURE RACE RECAP ---- The Santa Ysabel Stakes (gr. III)
The field for this graded stakes race was short to begin with, as only five fillies had entered. It became even shorter when two of them scratched, leaving only three runners in the race.
The heavy favorite, at 1-20, was May Day Rose. She was coming off of a good fourth behind Turbulent Descent in the Hollywood Starlet Stakes and was making a drop in class. Although she did not win like a 1-20 shot should, she still coasted home in a fairly easy performance.
Scarlet Starlet, the longshot at nearly 25-1, broke fastest but May Day Rose was quickly sent to the lead by Rafael Bejarano. Scarlet Starlet was content to sit back in second, a length in front of Bluegrass Chatter.
They continued in this order for much of the remainder of the race. Through fractions of :23 2/5, :47 2/5, and 1:11 2/5 the only thing that changed was the distance between the three horses. With five-sixteenths of a mile to run, May Day Rose held a half-length advantage over Scarlet Starlet. Bluegrass Chatter was another 1 1/2 lengths behind her.
May Day Rose then accelerated away from Scarlet Starlet and drew off to a 2 1/2 length lead at the eighth pole. She appeared to be on her way to an easy victory, but Bluegrass Chatter was beginning to rally. Although the latter closed fairly well, she never threatened May Day Rose, who hung on for a 1 1/4 length victory. Scarlet Starlet finished third, beaten just a neck for second and a 1 1/4 lengths for everything.
So the results were. . .
1 May Day Rose
2 Bluegrass Chatter
3 Scarlet Starlet
. . . and here were my picks.
1 May Day Rose
2 Bluegrass Chatter
3 Plum Pretty (scratched)
4 Zazu (scratched)
5 Scarlet Starlet
Therefore, I managed to pick the exact order of finish. Of course, just about everybody else did too, but still. . .
OTHER RACE RECAPS
As I mentioned above, there was an allowance race at Gulfstream Park on Friday that may yield a serious Triple Crown contender or two.
The race was one-mile in distance over the main track. A field of nine was entered, with Shadow Warrior the mild favorite at 2.10-1. El Grayling was also well liked at 2.70-1 and Black N Beauty was respected at 2.90-1.
Fastest out of the gate was El Grayling, but he wanted no part in the lead, taking back to seventh in the early going. It ended up being Black N Beauty who set the pace despite breaking eighth. He was followed by Dr. Tom G and Hammock Beach, the fifth and sixth choices respectively. Printing Press, at 4.70-1, was biding his time in fourth while Shadow Warrior raced sixth.
The pace was quite honest, with Black N Beauty playing a game of catch-me-if-you-can while carving fractions of :24 1/5 and :46 4/5. Under Kent Desormeaux, he continued to lead the way by a length until the quarter pole. Having run three quarters of a mile in 1:12 flat, it would have been no surprise to see him fade. After all, Printing Press, Shadow Warrior, and El Grayling were all lined up behind him making their bids and it would be very difficult to stem them off.
However, it is obvious that Black N Beauty is a nice horse, for not only did he stem off all of their runs but actually drew away throughout the stretch. He hit the wire 2 1/2 lengths in front of Printing Press, who finished a decisive 2 3/4 lengths clear of Shadow Warrior. A neck behind the latter was El Grayling, who just missed third by a neck. No other runner was within six lengths of the leading quartet.
Understandably, Black N Beauty did finish the race rather slowly, completing his last quarter mile in :25.46 and his last half-mile in :50.57. However, his :46 4/5 opening half mile was very good indeed. The performance likely earned him a spot in the Fountain of Youth Stakes next month, where we will likely learn just how talented he is.
The final race that must be mentioned is the Spectacular Bid Stakes, which was run on Saturday at Gulfstream Park. A six-furlong main track event, it drew eight runners with the favorite being Gangsterontherun. Leave of Absence and Cane Garden Bay were also well bet. However, none of them would win.
Cane Garden Bay broke fastest, but it was Gangsterontherun who raced away to take the early lead. He rattled off a testing :21 3/5 opening quarter mile while clearing the field by over a length. His closest pursuer was Determinato, a 14-1 shot. Cane Garden Bay and Leave of Absence were racing in fifth and sixth respectively.
Gangsteronthrun continued to lead the way through a half-mile in :44 3/5. However, he was then tackled by Determinato, who wrestled the lead away from the formed passing the eighth pole. Leave of Absence and Cane Garden Bay were rallying, but they both appeared to be soundly beaten.
Inside the eighth pole Gangsterontherun gave way, leaving Determinato on the lead. Leave of Absence charged relentlessly in the stretch, but fell 1 1/4 lengths short. Leave of Absence managed to rally for third, just nosing out Gangsterontherun for that spot. War For Gus, a 19-1 shot, finished fifth after staying fairly close to the pace.
Next Saturday the first really important Triple Crown prep race will be run, as Tapizar and Anthony's Cross take on each other in the Sham Stakes (gr. III). There will be several other strong prep races as well, including the grade II Santa Ynez Stakes for fillies and the Pasco Stakes for colts at Tampa Bay Downs. It's going to be the best weekend of 2011 so far!
-Keelerman
KEELERMAN'S TOP TWENTY ---- January 10th, 2011
1. To Honor and Serve - Trained by William Mott
As of right now, the possibility exists that he could make the Fountain of Youth Stakes in February. If he is to start there, then I would not be surprised to see him return to the work tab shortly.
2. Uncle Mo - Trained by Todd Pletcher
His 2011 debut will not be until at least mid-February, perhaps March. Until then, it will be difficult to gauge how well he has progressed since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
3. Comma to the Top - Trained by Peter Miller
Breezed a half-mile in :48 2/5 at Hollywood Park on January 7th. The current plan is to run him in three prep races prior to the Kentucky Derby, with the first one being in February.
4. Santiva - Trained by Eddie Kennealy
The Fountain of Youth Stakes is the current goal for the Kentucky Jockey Club winner. As is the case with To Honor and Serve, he has not recorded a workout since November.
5. Brethren - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Worked a half-mile in :49 2/5 this morning. He was flattered a few days ago by Black N Beauty, impressive winner of an allowance race at Gulfstream Park on January 7th. Black N Beauty had previously finished second to Brethren in a maiden special weight race.
6. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo
Worked a brilliant five furlongs in :59 flat on January 8th in preparation for the Holy Bull Stakes. It's going to be interesting to see if he can stay with Boys at Tosconova.
7. Boys at Tosconova - Trained by Rick Dutrow
Breezed a sharp five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 at Gulfstream Park on January 7th. I'm still not convinced that his pedigree can carry him a mile and a quarter, but how well he runs in the Holy Bull Stakes later this month should tell us more.
8. Jaycito - Trained by Bob Baffert
Although he ran poorly in his only start on dirt, I am still convinced that this colt is something special. He seems to be able to run all day. The Belmont Stakes should be within his reach.
9. Rogue Romance - Trained by Kenneth McPeek
Recorded his first work since the Breeders' Cup Juvenile by breezing three furlongs in :37 2/5 at Gulfstream Park. He is obviously several weeks away from his next start, but I suppose that the Fountain of Youth is a possibility.
10. Stay Thirsty - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Like Uncle Mo, I'm left wondering how far along he is. How much has he matured over the last few months? Until he returns to the work tab, and even more importantly the races, it is impossible to say how he is doing.
11. Premier Pegasus - Trained by Myung Cho
The Robert B. Lewis Stakes on February 12th or the San Vincente Stakes on February 20th seem like logical places for this colt's 2011 debut, considering that he hasn't worked out since winning the Hollywood Prevue Stakes in November.
12. Turbulent Descent - Trained by Mike Puype
Worked out for the first time since her Hollywood Starlet victory by breezing a half-mile in :48 4/5 on January 6th at Hollywood Park. I do believe that this filly is something unusual; something special. The Triple Crown races might not be out of her reach.
13. Astrology - Trained by Steven Asmussen
I’m still puzzling over this fine colt. Although his pedigree should carry him a mile and a quarter or further, I didn’t like the way that he was unable to catch Santiva in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes despite every opportunity.
14. Clubhouse Ride - Trained by Craig Lewis
On December 31st, this promising colt worked a half-mile at Santa Anita ---- in :45 3/5. This colt seems to be on the rise; a colt who is getting better and better. I greatly anticipate his next start.
15. Gourmet Dinner - Trained by Steven Standridge
I am dropping this colt down several spots after giving his pedigree some serious thought. I'm simply not convinced that he can go a mile and a quarter. Time will tell, but for now I can't keep him in the top ten.
16. Awesome Feather - Trained by Chad Brown
I must admit that I am fascinated by her pedigree. She is bred to run a considerable distance, and I do believe that she could be capable of staying with the colts at classic distances.
17. Dialed In - Trained by Nick Zito
Breezed a half-mile in :47 4/5 at Palm Meadows in preparation for his next start, which is currently unknown. I would not be surprised to see him in the Holy Bull, which would make that race a truly remarkable prep for the Kentucky Derby if all of the other expected starters run.
18. Black N Beauty - Trained by Dale Romans
This son of Devil His Due set all the pace in a one-mile main track allowance race at Gulfstream Park on the seventh and never looked back en route to a 2 1/2 length victory. He seems to possess a lot of natural speed and likely stamped his ticket to the Fountain of Youth.
19. J P's Gusto - Trained by David Hofmans
Recorded a sharp four-furlong work on January 5th, going :48 4/5 at Santa Anita Park. Although this colt seems to be a sprinter, he was running strong at the end of the CashCall Futurity, and with the right trip he might be able to run farther than I think he can.
20. Tapizar - Trained by Steve Asmussen
Worked an exceptional six furlongs in 1:12 2/5 on January 6th at Santa Anita in preperation fort the Sham Stakes on January 15th. This is a colt whose potential is unlimited; the epitome of an untapped Derby contender. I await the Sham Stakes eagerly.
Other Notable Horses:
Anthony’s Cross
Awesome Patriot
Bandbox
Buffum
Cool Blue Red Hot
Crossbow
Decisive Moment
Elite Alex
Grant Jack
Justin Phillip
Kathmanblu
Major Gain
Manicaro
Monzon
Mountain Town
Positive Response
Read the Contract
R Heat Lightning
Riveting Reason
Sway Away -
Sweet Ducky
The Factor
Travelin Man
Uncle Sam
Wine Police
Zayda
-Keelerman
As of right now, the possibility exists that he could make the Fountain of Youth Stakes in February. If he is to start there, then I would not be surprised to see him return to the work tab shortly.
2. Uncle Mo - Trained by Todd Pletcher
His 2011 debut will not be until at least mid-February, perhaps March. Until then, it will be difficult to gauge how well he has progressed since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
3. Comma to the Top - Trained by Peter Miller
Breezed a half-mile in :48 2/5 at Hollywood Park on January 7th. The current plan is to run him in three prep races prior to the Kentucky Derby, with the first one being in February.
4. Santiva - Trained by Eddie Kennealy
The Fountain of Youth Stakes is the current goal for the Kentucky Jockey Club winner. As is the case with To Honor and Serve, he has not recorded a workout since November.
5. Brethren - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Worked a half-mile in :49 2/5 this morning. He was flattered a few days ago by Black N Beauty, impressive winner of an allowance race at Gulfstream Park on January 7th. Black N Beauty had previously finished second to Brethren in a maiden special weight race.
6. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo
Worked a brilliant five furlongs in :59 flat on January 8th in preparation for the Holy Bull Stakes. It's going to be interesting to see if he can stay with Boys at Tosconova.
7. Boys at Tosconova - Trained by Rick Dutrow
Breezed a sharp five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 at Gulfstream Park on January 7th. I'm still not convinced that his pedigree can carry him a mile and a quarter, but how well he runs in the Holy Bull Stakes later this month should tell us more.
8. Jaycito - Trained by Bob Baffert
Although he ran poorly in his only start on dirt, I am still convinced that this colt is something special. He seems to be able to run all day. The Belmont Stakes should be within his reach.
9. Rogue Romance - Trained by Kenneth McPeek
Recorded his first work since the Breeders' Cup Juvenile by breezing three furlongs in :37 2/5 at Gulfstream Park. He is obviously several weeks away from his next start, but I suppose that the Fountain of Youth is a possibility.
10. Stay Thirsty - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Like Uncle Mo, I'm left wondering how far along he is. How much has he matured over the last few months? Until he returns to the work tab, and even more importantly the races, it is impossible to say how he is doing.
11. Premier Pegasus - Trained by Myung Cho
The Robert B. Lewis Stakes on February 12th or the San Vincente Stakes on February 20th seem like logical places for this colt's 2011 debut, considering that he hasn't worked out since winning the Hollywood Prevue Stakes in November.
12. Turbulent Descent - Trained by Mike Puype
Worked out for the first time since her Hollywood Starlet victory by breezing a half-mile in :48 4/5 on January 6th at Hollywood Park. I do believe that this filly is something unusual; something special. The Triple Crown races might not be out of her reach.
13. Astrology - Trained by Steven Asmussen
I’m still puzzling over this fine colt. Although his pedigree should carry him a mile and a quarter or further, I didn’t like the way that he was unable to catch Santiva in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes despite every opportunity.
14. Clubhouse Ride - Trained by Craig Lewis
On December 31st, this promising colt worked a half-mile at Santa Anita ---- in :45 3/5. This colt seems to be on the rise; a colt who is getting better and better. I greatly anticipate his next start.
15. Gourmet Dinner - Trained by Steven Standridge
I am dropping this colt down several spots after giving his pedigree some serious thought. I'm simply not convinced that he can go a mile and a quarter. Time will tell, but for now I can't keep him in the top ten.
16. Awesome Feather - Trained by Chad Brown
I must admit that I am fascinated by her pedigree. She is bred to run a considerable distance, and I do believe that she could be capable of staying with the colts at classic distances.
17. Dialed In - Trained by Nick Zito
Breezed a half-mile in :47 4/5 at Palm Meadows in preparation for his next start, which is currently unknown. I would not be surprised to see him in the Holy Bull, which would make that race a truly remarkable prep for the Kentucky Derby if all of the other expected starters run.
18. Black N Beauty - Trained by Dale Romans
This son of Devil His Due set all the pace in a one-mile main track allowance race at Gulfstream Park on the seventh and never looked back en route to a 2 1/2 length victory. He seems to possess a lot of natural speed and likely stamped his ticket to the Fountain of Youth.
19. J P's Gusto - Trained by David Hofmans
Recorded a sharp four-furlong work on January 5th, going :48 4/5 at Santa Anita Park. Although this colt seems to be a sprinter, he was running strong at the end of the CashCall Futurity, and with the right trip he might be able to run farther than I think he can.
20. Tapizar - Trained by Steve Asmussen
Worked an exceptional six furlongs in 1:12 2/5 on January 6th at Santa Anita in preperation fort the Sham Stakes on January 15th. This is a colt whose potential is unlimited; the epitome of an untapped Derby contender. I await the Sham Stakes eagerly.
Other Notable Horses:
Anthony’s Cross
Awesome Patriot
Bandbox
Buffum
Cool Blue Red Hot
Crossbow
Decisive Moment
Elite Alex
Grant Jack
Justin Phillip
Kathmanblu
Major Gain
Manicaro
Monzon
Mountain Town
Positive Response
Read the Contract
R Heat Lightning
Riveting Reason
Sway Away -
Sweet Ducky
The Factor
Travelin Man
Uncle Sam
Wine Police
Zayda
-Keelerman
Saturday, January 08, 2011
HOPPING WITH A GREAT ONE
While browsing through the entries for today’s races, I came across a horse that I had all but forgotten; a horse that caused me to pause and take a closer look.
The race is nothing extraordinary. It is a simple six-furlong allowance optional claiming event. Only five horses are scheduled to run. But one of those horses caused my jaw to drop in surprise.
“Grasshopper?!” I thought to myself. “He’s still around?!”
Yes, entered in the eighth race at Fair Grounds today is Grasshopper. A dark bay or brown son of Dixie Union out of the Mr. Prospector mare Grass Skirt, I have always been fond of him but had lost track of him in recent months. He is seven years old now; long past his prime, but still a solid runner capable of running a good race under the right conditions.
Perhaps you remember his name, for he was once on the national stage, long ago when he was but three years old. He had made two starts at age two in 2006, finishing second in a maiden special weight in his first start and breaking his maiden in a similar event next time out. Perhaps hard-core racing fans noticed this performance and made a note of him as a promising two-year-old who might someday be a nice runner, but it is doubtful that they put him in the same class as Street Sense, the year’s champion two-year-old colt who won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by ten lengths.
Seven months later, on June 10th, 2007, Grasshopper made his three-year-old debut in an allowance race. He was getting a late start, for the Triple Crown was already over and Street Sense had proven himself to be a runner of the highest class. The champion two-year-old had rallied from far back to win the Kentucky Derby and finish second in the Preakness Stakes. He had become the first horse in history to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Kentucky Derby, which put him in an elite club to which only he belonged.
Grasshopper wasn’t even remotely in the same class. He was nothing but a maiden winner; an impressive one yes, but only a maiden winner. Perhaps someday he would win a stakes race, but if he was to run against Street Sense it was doubtful that he could even get the Derby winner to raise a sweat.
Sent off as 4-1 in his 2007 debut, Grasshopper was rated in fifth under Robby Albarado, took the lead at the eighth pole, and won the race under a hand ride.
Sent off as the favorite in a seven-furlong allowance optional claiming event one month later, he ran third after a rough trip. This raised his odds to 6-1 for his next start, a nine-furlong allowance optional claiming event at Saratoga. Under Calvin Borel, he romped by six lengths in 1:49 2/5.
The effort was impressive enough to warrant a step up in class.
A big step up in class.
To a grade I race.
But not just any grade I race.
When Grasshopper’s name next appeared in the entries, it was among the seven horses entered in the Travers Stakes. The race, frequently referred to as the “Midsummer Derby”, is one of the oldest races in the United States, and winning it is a remarkable achievement. The race often---if not always---draws a Triple Crown race winner or two, and among the horses entered to face Grasshopper in 2007 was Street Sense.
It would be the pauper against the prince at Saratoga, one of the nation’s biggest stages. Thousands would be watching, but no one really expected Grasshopper to defeat the much more highly regarded Street Sense. Allowance optional claiming race winners just don’t defeat the winner of the Kentucky Derby!
Therefore, when seven horses paraded on to the Saratoga main track on August 25th, 2007, with their destination being the starting gate, Street Sense was the overwhelming favorite. He had prepped for the Travers with a 1 ½ length victory in the Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. II) over C P West and Sightseeing, and with regular rider Calvin Borel in the saddle he was widely expected to enter the history books as the winner of the 138th Travers Stakes.
Sightseeing and C P West were back for another try at the Derby winner. The second and third choices, respectively, at 4.60-1 and 8.50-1, both had the ability to upset Street Sense under the right conditions. Sightseeing had Edgar Prado in the saddle and C P West had Cornileo Velasquez.
Grasshopper was the fourth choice at 9.60-1. Robby Albarado was in the saddle, replacing Calvin Borel who would be riding Street Sense.
The longshots were Loose Leaf, For You Reppo, and Helsinki, none lower than 22-1. Helsinki, a Nick Zito trainee, was 49.75-1.
One by one, they loaded into the gate. Ahead of them lay a mile and a quarter of racetrack. Whichever horse could out rally the others and cross the wire first would be remembered forever, his name forever inscribed with the other 137 winners of the historic race.
The gates opened.
Immediately, Grasshopper and C P West set out to take the lead, with Street Sense right behind them. Helsinki broke slowly and was taken back to last, as many as eleven lengths off the pace in the early going.
Although Grasshopper had been coming from just off the pace in his recent races, he found himself battling for the lead this time, as he and C P West ran an opening quarter in :23.68. Looming right behind them was Street Sense, biding his time as he usually did. Loose Leaf and For You Reppo were racing together in fourth, with Sightseeing close behind in sixth. Helsinki was seven lengths behind him, seemingly too far out of the race to menace whatsoever.
Then the pace began to slow down. Grasshopper moved up to take a one length lead and cut a half mile in :48.18. C P West was still sitting second, a half-length clear of Street Sense. The Kentucky Derby winner was a bit closer to the pace than he usually was, which did not bode well for his rivals.
Then C P West began to make a run at Grasshopper. After running three quarters of a mile in 1:12.43, he was just a half-length off of the leader. Street Sense was also closer to the pace, now just a length behind Grasshopper. With just a half-mile left to run, the race was on!
Street Sense continued to move closer to the game leader, but C P West was beginning to drop back.
Suddenly, Street Sense was on top of Grasshopper. They were separated by a head as the past the mile marker in 1:36.93. It appeared as though Street Sense was ready to blow right past the front runner; the front runner who was making his stakes debut; the front runner who was in over his head against Street Sense.
But something happened down the long Saratoga homestretch that changed everyone’s opinion of the dark bay or brown colt.
He wouldn’t give in.
As a team, Street Sense and Grasshopper drove down the homestretch together; locked in combat; racing as one. Neither would give an inch.
They passed the eighth pole with Street Sense clinging to a narrow head lead. The crowd cheered madly as the Kentucky Derby winner dueled with a runner who had never run in a stakes race. It was the prince against the pauper in a dramatic stretch battle. One or the other had to break under the intense strain.
Neither broke . . . but Grasshopper cracked.
In the final one hundred and ten yards, Grasshopper relented ever so narrowly. Street Sense gradually extended his lead to a neck. Under the wire they flashed, Street Sense pushed to the very limit to hold off a colt who wasn’t supposed to be able to get him to raise a sweat. The final time was 2:02.69.
It was a race that will never be forgotten. Although Street Sense had proven victorious in the end, Grasshopper had proven himself to be a worthy foe to the leading three-year-old in the nation. Amazingly, Helsinki rallied to finish third, although he was a good ten lengths behind Grasshopper.
Although the latter finished second in the Super Derby (gr. II) later in 2007 and won the 2008 Mineshaft Handicap (gr. III), he never returned to the form that he showed in the Travers Stakes. He has raced in a variety of stakes races over the years, finishing on the board many times but rarely finding the winners circle. His record at this time is 19-5-6-2 with earnings of $846,152.
He enters today’s allowance optional claiming event off of a ten-month layoff. He has not raced since finishing last in the Gulfstream Park Handicap (gr. II) on March 13th, 2010. He faces a difficult task today, as Cash Refund and Backtalk, two very nice sprinters, are among those entered against him. But win, lose, or draw, Grasshopper will always be fondly remembered as the pauper who forced the prince to run on one of the nation’s biggest stages.
-Keelerman
The race is nothing extraordinary. It is a simple six-furlong allowance optional claiming event. Only five horses are scheduled to run. But one of those horses caused my jaw to drop in surprise.
“Grasshopper?!” I thought to myself. “He’s still around?!”
Yes, entered in the eighth race at Fair Grounds today is Grasshopper. A dark bay or brown son of Dixie Union out of the Mr. Prospector mare Grass Skirt, I have always been fond of him but had lost track of him in recent months. He is seven years old now; long past his prime, but still a solid runner capable of running a good race under the right conditions.
Perhaps you remember his name, for he was once on the national stage, long ago when he was but three years old. He had made two starts at age two in 2006, finishing second in a maiden special weight in his first start and breaking his maiden in a similar event next time out. Perhaps hard-core racing fans noticed this performance and made a note of him as a promising two-year-old who might someday be a nice runner, but it is doubtful that they put him in the same class as Street Sense, the year’s champion two-year-old colt who won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by ten lengths.
Seven months later, on June 10th, 2007, Grasshopper made his three-year-old debut in an allowance race. He was getting a late start, for the Triple Crown was already over and Street Sense had proven himself to be a runner of the highest class. The champion two-year-old had rallied from far back to win the Kentucky Derby and finish second in the Preakness Stakes. He had become the first horse in history to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Kentucky Derby, which put him in an elite club to which only he belonged.
Grasshopper wasn’t even remotely in the same class. He was nothing but a maiden winner; an impressive one yes, but only a maiden winner. Perhaps someday he would win a stakes race, but if he was to run against Street Sense it was doubtful that he could even get the Derby winner to raise a sweat.
Sent off as 4-1 in his 2007 debut, Grasshopper was rated in fifth under Robby Albarado, took the lead at the eighth pole, and won the race under a hand ride.
Sent off as the favorite in a seven-furlong allowance optional claiming event one month later, he ran third after a rough trip. This raised his odds to 6-1 for his next start, a nine-furlong allowance optional claiming event at Saratoga. Under Calvin Borel, he romped by six lengths in 1:49 2/5.
The effort was impressive enough to warrant a step up in class.
A big step up in class.
To a grade I race.
But not just any grade I race.
When Grasshopper’s name next appeared in the entries, it was among the seven horses entered in the Travers Stakes. The race, frequently referred to as the “Midsummer Derby”, is one of the oldest races in the United States, and winning it is a remarkable achievement. The race often---if not always---draws a Triple Crown race winner or two, and among the horses entered to face Grasshopper in 2007 was Street Sense.
It would be the pauper against the prince at Saratoga, one of the nation’s biggest stages. Thousands would be watching, but no one really expected Grasshopper to defeat the much more highly regarded Street Sense. Allowance optional claiming race winners just don’t defeat the winner of the Kentucky Derby!
Therefore, when seven horses paraded on to the Saratoga main track on August 25th, 2007, with their destination being the starting gate, Street Sense was the overwhelming favorite. He had prepped for the Travers with a 1 ½ length victory in the Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. II) over C P West and Sightseeing, and with regular rider Calvin Borel in the saddle he was widely expected to enter the history books as the winner of the 138th Travers Stakes.
Sightseeing and C P West were back for another try at the Derby winner. The second and third choices, respectively, at 4.60-1 and 8.50-1, both had the ability to upset Street Sense under the right conditions. Sightseeing had Edgar Prado in the saddle and C P West had Cornileo Velasquez.
Grasshopper was the fourth choice at 9.60-1. Robby Albarado was in the saddle, replacing Calvin Borel who would be riding Street Sense.
The longshots were Loose Leaf, For You Reppo, and Helsinki, none lower than 22-1. Helsinki, a Nick Zito trainee, was 49.75-1.
One by one, they loaded into the gate. Ahead of them lay a mile and a quarter of racetrack. Whichever horse could out rally the others and cross the wire first would be remembered forever, his name forever inscribed with the other 137 winners of the historic race.
The gates opened.
Immediately, Grasshopper and C P West set out to take the lead, with Street Sense right behind them. Helsinki broke slowly and was taken back to last, as many as eleven lengths off the pace in the early going.
Although Grasshopper had been coming from just off the pace in his recent races, he found himself battling for the lead this time, as he and C P West ran an opening quarter in :23.68. Looming right behind them was Street Sense, biding his time as he usually did. Loose Leaf and For You Reppo were racing together in fourth, with Sightseeing close behind in sixth. Helsinki was seven lengths behind him, seemingly too far out of the race to menace whatsoever.
Then the pace began to slow down. Grasshopper moved up to take a one length lead and cut a half mile in :48.18. C P West was still sitting second, a half-length clear of Street Sense. The Kentucky Derby winner was a bit closer to the pace than he usually was, which did not bode well for his rivals.
Then C P West began to make a run at Grasshopper. After running three quarters of a mile in 1:12.43, he was just a half-length off of the leader. Street Sense was also closer to the pace, now just a length behind Grasshopper. With just a half-mile left to run, the race was on!
Street Sense continued to move closer to the game leader, but C P West was beginning to drop back.
Suddenly, Street Sense was on top of Grasshopper. They were separated by a head as the past the mile marker in 1:36.93. It appeared as though Street Sense was ready to blow right past the front runner; the front runner who was making his stakes debut; the front runner who was in over his head against Street Sense.
But something happened down the long Saratoga homestretch that changed everyone’s opinion of the dark bay or brown colt.
He wouldn’t give in.
As a team, Street Sense and Grasshopper drove down the homestretch together; locked in combat; racing as one. Neither would give an inch.
They passed the eighth pole with Street Sense clinging to a narrow head lead. The crowd cheered madly as the Kentucky Derby winner dueled with a runner who had never run in a stakes race. It was the prince against the pauper in a dramatic stretch battle. One or the other had to break under the intense strain.
Neither broke . . . but Grasshopper cracked.
In the final one hundred and ten yards, Grasshopper relented ever so narrowly. Street Sense gradually extended his lead to a neck. Under the wire they flashed, Street Sense pushed to the very limit to hold off a colt who wasn’t supposed to be able to get him to raise a sweat. The final time was 2:02.69.
It was a race that will never be forgotten. Although Street Sense had proven victorious in the end, Grasshopper had proven himself to be a worthy foe to the leading three-year-old in the nation. Amazingly, Helsinki rallied to finish third, although he was a good ten lengths behind Grasshopper.
Although the latter finished second in the Super Derby (gr. II) later in 2007 and won the 2008 Mineshaft Handicap (gr. III), he never returned to the form that he showed in the Travers Stakes. He has raced in a variety of stakes races over the years, finishing on the board many times but rarely finding the winners circle. His record at this time is 19-5-6-2 with earnings of $846,152.
He enters today’s allowance optional claiming event off of a ten-month layoff. He has not raced since finishing last in the Gulfstream Park Handicap (gr. II) on March 13th, 2010. He faces a difficult task today, as Cash Refund and Backtalk, two very nice sprinters, are among those entered against him. But win, lose, or draw, Grasshopper will always be fondly remembered as the pauper who forced the prince to run on one of the nation’s biggest stages.
-Keelerman
Friday, January 07, 2011
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- January 7th, 2011
I hope you are ready. There are a couple of really fascinating stakes races for three-year-olds coming up this weekend. They are the Spectacular Bid Stakes, a six-furlong sprint at Gulfstream Park, and the grade III Santa Ysable Stakes, a mile and a sixteenth race at Santa Anita for fillies. Both races have drawn strong fields, with the Santa Ysable being this week’s feature race.
FEATURE RACE ---- Santa Ysable Stakes (gr. III)
8.5 furlongs on dirt, for three-year-old fillies
Although the race only drew five runners, the Santa Ysable Stakes promises to have an impact on the remainder of the year. Last year’s running of the race also drew only five horses, but the runner-up that year was Evening Jewel, who turned into a multiple grade I winner by the end of the year.
So you might say that this field has the potential to turn out a star.
The favorite will likely be May Day Rose, a daughter of Rockport Harbor out of May Day Bluff. A front-running filly trained by Bob Baffert, she was very impressive when winning the Sharp Cat Stakes on November 7th by over four lengths. She ran an excellent race in the grade I Hollywood Starlet Stakes last time out, battling for the early lead before tiring very late in the stretch to finish fourth, beaten just over three lengths by the highly promising Turbulent Descent. She has recorded one workout since then, going a half-mile in :47 2/5. To be ridden by Rafael Bejarano, she will carry 118 pounds, the same as all of the other fillies. She drew gate four.
Plum Pretty, also trained by Bob Baffert, could be a contender too. Although she has only made one start, it was a very impressive one. A daughter of Medaglia d’Oro out of Liszy, she broke slowly but raced up to take the lead and held it all the way to the wire, scoring by a head while completing the six furlongs in 1:10 3/5. However, that was on October 27th over the Hollywood Park main track, and it is hard to say how she will perform of a traditional dirt surface. On the other hand, she has recorded three works over the Santa Anita main track, the last one being five furlongs in :59 3/5. She will be ridden by Garrett Gomez and has drawn gate five.
Zazu, a daughter of Tapit out of Rhumb Line, broke her maiden with a sharp tally in a 6-1/2 furlong race at the Oak Tree meet on October 15th. She then ran a strong second to Turbulent Descent in the Moccasin Stakes, finishing over three lengths clear of the third-place finisher. However, in the Hollywood Starlet Stakes, she failed to menace whatsoever, finishing a disappointing fifth. I can’t see her catching May Day Rose here, but she should be in with a chance in the stretch. Trained by John Sadler, she will be ridden by Joe Talamo and drew gate three
Scarlet Starlet, who drew gate two, will likely be one of the longshots. A daughter of Congrats out of Red Hot Star, she broke her maiden first asking in a wire-to-wire performance, scoring by a half-length at odds of nearly 30-1 in a six-furlong turf event. However, when tried in a one-mile main track stakes race in the Corte Madera Stakes, she ran sixth at odds of 11-1, beaten slightly more than three lengths by Cathy’s Crunches. I can’t see her winning this race based off of that performance. She will be ridden by Martin Pedroza and is trained by Doug O’Neill.
Bluegrass Chatter will likely be the other longshot. A daughter of Bluegrass Cat out of Chatter Chatter, it took her three tries to break her maiden, finally breaking through with a nose victory last time out going a mile and a sixteenth over the Hollywood Park Cushion Track. The performance was actually very good, as she rallied from far back while chasing a slow pace to win. With enough pace in front of her tomorrow, she might be able to rally strongly enough to make her presence felt. Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, she is to be ridden by Joel Rosario and drew the rail.
It’s a fun race to handicap, and this is what I come with. . .
1 May Day Rose
2 Bluegrass Chatter
3 Plum Pretty
4 Zazu
5 Scarlet Starlet
I do believe that May Day Rose is the best horse in the race and will get an ideal trip. However, there should be enough pace for Bluegrass Chatter to rally in the stretch. Plum Pretty looks like a promising filly, but she may be in over her head at this point in her career.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
The Spectacular Bid Stakes at Gulfstream Park could potentially have a major influence on the Triple Crown Trail. After all, last year’s field was won by A Little Warm, who finished second in the Louisiana Derby and won the Jim Dandy Stakes. Fourth that day was Discreetly Mine, who ended up in the Kentucky Derby where he ran poorly before becoming one of the nation’s top three-year-old sprinters.
This year’s edition, although it failed to draw a stakes winner, could end up having that same influence. The morning line favorite, Leave of Absence, looks like a potential monster. Although he could only manage a third place finish in his first start, he came through strongly in his second start, a six-furlong maiden special weight race on November 7th. Rated just off the pace by jockey Rajiv Maragh, he took the lead just past the sixteenth pole and was hand urged to 1 ¼ length victory. He stopped the clock in a brilliant 1:09 2/5. If he repeats that effort tomorrow, he should win with ease.
The other horse that is expected to run well is Gangstersontherun. Like Leave of Absence, he lost his first start, finishing second, but turned in a brilliant performance second time out. Sent off as the favorite in a five-furlong maiden special weight at Parx Racing, he broke quickly and was sent straight to the lead. He never looked back en route to a nine length victory in :57 flat.
Cane Garden Bay, 8-1 on the morning line, is a colt that I will be watching. I picked him to win the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) on November 27th, but he ran a disappointing fifth that day. If the pace is rapid tomorrow, it could set up his late run very well.
Be sure to come back next week for my analysis of the Sham Stakes (gr. III), Santa Ynez Stakes (gr. II), California Derby, and other great races. It’s the first really big weekend for three-year-olds of 2011 and it’s going to be an exciting two days!
Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
FEATURE RACE ---- Santa Ysable Stakes (gr. III)
8.5 furlongs on dirt, for three-year-old fillies
Although the race only drew five runners, the Santa Ysable Stakes promises to have an impact on the remainder of the year. Last year’s running of the race also drew only five horses, but the runner-up that year was Evening Jewel, who turned into a multiple grade I winner by the end of the year.
So you might say that this field has the potential to turn out a star.
The favorite will likely be May Day Rose, a daughter of Rockport Harbor out of May Day Bluff. A front-running filly trained by Bob Baffert, she was very impressive when winning the Sharp Cat Stakes on November 7th by over four lengths. She ran an excellent race in the grade I Hollywood Starlet Stakes last time out, battling for the early lead before tiring very late in the stretch to finish fourth, beaten just over three lengths by the highly promising Turbulent Descent. She has recorded one workout since then, going a half-mile in :47 2/5. To be ridden by Rafael Bejarano, she will carry 118 pounds, the same as all of the other fillies. She drew gate four.
Plum Pretty, also trained by Bob Baffert, could be a contender too. Although she has only made one start, it was a very impressive one. A daughter of Medaglia d’Oro out of Liszy, she broke slowly but raced up to take the lead and held it all the way to the wire, scoring by a head while completing the six furlongs in 1:10 3/5. However, that was on October 27th over the Hollywood Park main track, and it is hard to say how she will perform of a traditional dirt surface. On the other hand, she has recorded three works over the Santa Anita main track, the last one being five furlongs in :59 3/5. She will be ridden by Garrett Gomez and has drawn gate five.
Zazu, a daughter of Tapit out of Rhumb Line, broke her maiden with a sharp tally in a 6-1/2 furlong race at the Oak Tree meet on October 15th. She then ran a strong second to Turbulent Descent in the Moccasin Stakes, finishing over three lengths clear of the third-place finisher. However, in the Hollywood Starlet Stakes, she failed to menace whatsoever, finishing a disappointing fifth. I can’t see her catching May Day Rose here, but she should be in with a chance in the stretch. Trained by John Sadler, she will be ridden by Joe Talamo and drew gate three
Scarlet Starlet, who drew gate two, will likely be one of the longshots. A daughter of Congrats out of Red Hot Star, she broke her maiden first asking in a wire-to-wire performance, scoring by a half-length at odds of nearly 30-1 in a six-furlong turf event. However, when tried in a one-mile main track stakes race in the Corte Madera Stakes, she ran sixth at odds of 11-1, beaten slightly more than three lengths by Cathy’s Crunches. I can’t see her winning this race based off of that performance. She will be ridden by Martin Pedroza and is trained by Doug O’Neill.
Bluegrass Chatter will likely be the other longshot. A daughter of Bluegrass Cat out of Chatter Chatter, it took her three tries to break her maiden, finally breaking through with a nose victory last time out going a mile and a sixteenth over the Hollywood Park Cushion Track. The performance was actually very good, as she rallied from far back while chasing a slow pace to win. With enough pace in front of her tomorrow, she might be able to rally strongly enough to make her presence felt. Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, she is to be ridden by Joel Rosario and drew the rail.
It’s a fun race to handicap, and this is what I come with. . .
1 May Day Rose
2 Bluegrass Chatter
3 Plum Pretty
4 Zazu
5 Scarlet Starlet
I do believe that May Day Rose is the best horse in the race and will get an ideal trip. However, there should be enough pace for Bluegrass Chatter to rally in the stretch. Plum Pretty looks like a promising filly, but she may be in over her head at this point in her career.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
The Spectacular Bid Stakes at Gulfstream Park could potentially have a major influence on the Triple Crown Trail. After all, last year’s field was won by A Little Warm, who finished second in the Louisiana Derby and won the Jim Dandy Stakes. Fourth that day was Discreetly Mine, who ended up in the Kentucky Derby where he ran poorly before becoming one of the nation’s top three-year-old sprinters.
This year’s edition, although it failed to draw a stakes winner, could end up having that same influence. The morning line favorite, Leave of Absence, looks like a potential monster. Although he could only manage a third place finish in his first start, he came through strongly in his second start, a six-furlong maiden special weight race on November 7th. Rated just off the pace by jockey Rajiv Maragh, he took the lead just past the sixteenth pole and was hand urged to 1 ¼ length victory. He stopped the clock in a brilliant 1:09 2/5. If he repeats that effort tomorrow, he should win with ease.
The other horse that is expected to run well is Gangstersontherun. Like Leave of Absence, he lost his first start, finishing second, but turned in a brilliant performance second time out. Sent off as the favorite in a five-furlong maiden special weight at Parx Racing, he broke quickly and was sent straight to the lead. He never looked back en route to a nine length victory in :57 flat.
Cane Garden Bay, 8-1 on the morning line, is a colt that I will be watching. I picked him to win the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) on November 27th, but he ran a disappointing fifth that day. If the pace is rapid tomorrow, it could set up his late run very well.
Be sure to come back next week for my analysis of the Sham Stakes (gr. III), Santa Ynez Stakes (gr. II), California Derby, and other great races. It’s the first really big weekend for three-year-olds of 2011 and it’s going to be an exciting two days!
Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
Thursday, January 06, 2011
MY THOUGHTS ON THE ECLIPSE AWARDS
As everyone knows, the Eclipse awards ceremony is rapidly approaching. Very soon we shall all know the answer to the question that racing fans have been asking since the conclusion of the Breeders' Cup Classic ---- who shall be Horse of the Year?
Although I do not have a vote, below are the names of the horses that I would vote for if I did. I have put much time and thought into making these selections, and I hope that you enjoy them.
Here they are: my top three picks in each category. I shall talk about my top three selections in the horse categories, but my top pick in the human divisions.
CHAMPION TRAINER
1st - Todd Pletcher
2nd - John Shirreffs
3rd - Bob Baffert
After losing the last to Eclipse awards to Steve Asmussen, Todd Pletcher is once again back in the spotlight; a shoe-in for the Eclipse award. He did everything. He won the Kentucky Derby; three Breeders' Cup races; trained Uncle Mo, Super Saver, Eskendereya, Discreetly Mine, Pluck, More Than Real, Life at Ten, and others; and oh yes, he led the leading earners list by just shy of $7,000,000. Not bad!
CHAMPION JOCKEY
1st - Garrett Gomez
2nd - Ramon Dominguez
3rd - Joel Rosario
Although he finished fourth on the leading earners list, Garrett Gomez had a spectacular year that culminated with three Breeders' Cup victories, including the Classic on Blame. He amazingly finished only about $500,000 behind leading earner Ramon Dominguez despite riding in 674 less races than the latter.
CHAMPION OWNER
1st - WinStar Farm
2nd - Mr. and Mrs. Jerome S. Moss
3rd - Claiborne Farm and Adele B. Dilschneider
WinStar farms had a banner year in 2010, winning both the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes, as well as a host of other good races. Super Saver, Drosselmeyer, Rule, and Endorsement, are among the stakes winners they campaigned, and they topped the leading owners by earnings chart with over $5,100,000.
CHAMPION BREEDER
1st - Adena Springs
2nd - Brereton C. Jones
3rd - Edward P. Evans
For the eighth consecutive year, Adena Springs led the list of leading breeders by earnings, a remarkable achievement which definitely earns them the Eclipse award. They led the earnings list by almost $6,000,000.
CHAMPION APPRENTICE JOCKEY
1nd - Forest Boyce
2nd - Angel Serpa
3rd - Omar Moreno
Forest Boyce had a truly incredible year, winning 119 races from 702 mounts. Her mounts have finished in the top three in 337 races. Her total earnings have amounted to a solid $1,887,564.
CHAMPION STEEPLECHASE HORSE
1st - Arcadius
2nd - Slip Away
3rd - Percussionist
In a year where no standout steeplechaser emerged, I believe that Arcadius was the best of 2010. He never finished worse than third and finished ahead of Slip Away in three of the four occasions where they met. His victory in the Helen Haskell Sampson Hurdle Stakes was excellent. Slip Away had a very good year too, with a 25 3/4 length victory Colonial Cup Hurdle Stakes the crowning moment. Percussionist only made two starts in the United States, winning the Grand National Hurdle Stakes by seven lengths over Slip Away before finishing sixth, beaten 92 1/2 lengths by the latter in the Colonial Cup.
CHAMPION FEMALE SPRINTER
1st - Dubai Majesty
2nd - Switch
3rd - Champagne d'Oro
This division was filled with confusion throughout the year, as there was no true standout. But Dubai Majesty changed all that when she held off Switch to win the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, capping a year which saw her win on dirt, synthetic, and turf tracks; finish worse than third only once; and beat all of the leading contenders save Rightly So. Her year was far from a typical championship campaign, as she lost more races than she won, but she proved herself best over the course of the year.
Switch, although she only won one sprint race, turned into a true monster filly toward the end of the year. As the conclusion to a season which saw her beat Blind Luck and finish second to Zenyatta, she ran a strong second to Dubai Majesty in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint and turned in a dominating performance in the seven-furlong La Brea Stakes (gr. I) on December 26th. In the latter race, she beat Champagne d'Oro, meaning that she finished ahead of the latter both times in which they met.
As for Champagne d'Oro, she had a very good year with victories in the Acorn Stakes (gr. I) and Test Stakes (gr. I) but simply did not run well enough often enough to earn the championship.
CHAMPION MALE SPRINTER
1st - Majesticperfection
2nd - Big Drama
3rd - Smiling Tiger
This is one of the trickier categories. Big Drama won the Breeders' Cup Sprint and had a very solid year, but Majesticperfection beat him easily and fairly in the grade I Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap. Majesticperfection also proved victorious in the Iowa Sprint Handicap, where he ran six furlongs in a scorching 1:07 1/5. I firmly believe that he was the best sprinter of 2010 and deserves the Eclipse award despite his abbreviated campaign.
As for Smiling Tiger, I liked the fact that he beat his elders twice in grade I competition (in the Bing Crosby and Ancient Title Stakes) and finished a decent third in the Breeders' Cup Sprint. He defeated very nice horses throughout the year and deserves more respect than he gets.
CHAMPION TURF FEMALE
1st - Proviso
2nd - Goldikova
3rd - Tuscan Evening
This is one of the most debatable catagories of all. If I had a vote, it would go to Proviso. She won four straight grade I victories, including the Frank E. Kilroe Mile against colts, before running seventh in the Breeders' Cup Mile. Goldikova won that Breeders' Cup Mile, and I do believe that she is probably better than Proviso, but I wouldn't vote for her based strictly on the fact that she made only one start in the United States. If not for that fact, I would vote for her. But I feel that Proviso is more deserving of the American Eclipse award.
As for Tuscan Evening, who went 6-for-6 this year, it is impossible to say how good she might have been. Her untimely death was one of the low points of the year and left many heart broken. She won't win the Eclipse award, but I will always wonder if she might have been the best of her division. She will be greatly missed.
CHAMPION TURF MALE
1st - Gio Ponti
2nd - Champ Pegasus
3rd - Chamberlain Bridge
This is a fascinating category, as there were no standouts. Gio Ponti only won two of seven races, but both victories were grade I. Also, he finished worse than second only once, when beaten a length while fourth in the $10,000,000 Dubai World Cup, which is hardly a detriment. Considering that he finished second in three grade I races, including the Breeders' Cup Mile, he would receive my vote.
Champ Pegasus became a superstar by the end of the year despite breaking his maiden in April, winning the Del Mar Handicap (gr. II) and Clement L. Hirsch Memorial Turf Championship Stakes (gr. I) in impressive fashion. He then ran a terrific second in the Breeders' Cup Turf despite setting the pace.
As for Chamberlain Bridge, the brilliant turf sprinter had a banner year during which he won five stakes races, including the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint. His strong performances throughout the year earn him the third spot in my opinion.
CHAMPION 2yo FEMALE
1st - Awesome Feather
2nd - Turbulent Descent
3rd - R Heat Lightning
Awesome Feather had a lot to prove coming in to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies but she passed every test with flying colors, out gaming R Heat Lightning in the stretch to win by slightly more than two lengths. The victory capped off a brilliant campaign during which she went 6-for-6.
Turbulent Descent looked like a potential star when she won the Moccasin Stakes (gr. III) and backed that up by winning the grade I Hollywood Starlet Stakes in brilliant fashion, making her one of the top prospects for next year's Kentucky Oaks but not a contender for the Eclipse award this year.
R Heat Lightning had won the Spinaway Stakes (gr. I) and finished second in the Frizette Stakes (gr. I) entering the Breeders' Cup, but lost any chance at earning the championship when she lost her duel with Awesome Feather.
CHAMPION 2yo MALE
1st - Uncle Mo
2nd - Boys at Tosconova
3rd - To Honor and Serve
Uncle Mo is perhaps the best two-year-old colt to run during the past ten or fifteen years. He broke his maiden first time out by over fourteen lengths, then dominated the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) when he turned in a 1:34 2/5 mile. His victory in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile was nothing short of spectacular, as he galloped home 4 1/4 lengths in front of Boys at Tosconova in a brilliant performance.
As for the latter, he could have been the Champion 2yo Male in any normal year, and his Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) victory was extremely impressive. But when asked to match strides with Mo in the stretch of the Breeders' Cup, he was unable to do so.
To Honor and Serve could end up being the best of the lot, as his stakes victories in the Nashua Stakes (gr. II) and Remsen Stakes (gr. II) were both remarkable. But his failure to win, or even run in, a grade I race leaves him in the third spot.
CHAMPION 3yo FEMALE
1st - Blind Luck
2nd - Evening Jewel
3rd - Devil May Care
Blind Luck is a truly rare horse; one who can handle a long, tough campaign without flinching. Throughout the year, she made nine starts, won three grade I races, placed in two more, never finished worse than third, and concluded the year with a strong second in the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic. Her Kentucky Oaks victory was amazing.
Evening Jewel was a brilliant campaigner too, winning grade I races on synthetic and turf while finishing second in the Kentucky Oaks. Her versatility is rare; as is her talent. If she had not been nosed out by Blind Luck in both the Kentucky Oaks and Las Virgenes Stakes, she probably would be voted Champion 3yo filly.
Although sickness cut Devil May Care's year short, she still had time to win the Mother Goose and Coaching Club American Oaks, giving her two grade I victories which, in my opinion, puts her ahead of Havre de Grace for third.
CHAMPION 3yo MALE
1st - Lookin at Lucky
2nd - Eskendereya
3rd - Smiling Tiger
Lookin at Lucky is the only horse in this category to have really established himself as the best, with victories in the Haskell Invitational (gr. I) and Preakness Stakes (gr. I) among his four victories.
Perhaps Eskendereya could have beaten him, but unfortunately he was injured before he could show how good he truly was. Still, his easy triumphs in the Fountain of Youth (gr. II) and Wood Memorial (gr. I) earned him deep respect and he deserved to be on this list.
As I mentioned above, I love the fact that Smiling Tiger won two grade I races against older males, something Lookin at Lucky failed to accomplish.
CHAMPION OLDER MALE
1st - Blame
2nd - Quality Road
3rd - Gio Ponti
There was really no debate here. Blame proved himself to be the best older male in the country by beating everyone, including Zenyatta, in the Breeders' Cup Classic. Although he was soundly beaten in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, he more than made up for that dismal performance.
Quality Road, although he turned in a terrible last-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Classic, earned my respect through brilliant victories in the Donn Handicap, Metropolitan Handicap, and Woodward Stakes (all grade I).
Gio Ponti, although not as good as he was last year, ran some great races and his second in the Breeders' Cup Mile was a strong performance indeed.
CHAMPION OLDER FEMALE
1st - Zenyatta
2nd - Unrivaled Belle
3rd - Life at Ten
Zenyatta, as she did in 2008 and 2009, proved herself to be heads and shoulders above the rest of the older mares. Five grade I victories against fillies and mares were followed by a tremendous second in the Breeders' Cup Classic where she rallied from impossibly far back to miss by a half-head.
Unrivaled Belle proved herself to be among the leaders of the remaining mares, with victories over Rachel Alexandra in the La Troienne Stakes and Blind Luck in the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic earning her the second spot.
Life at Ten beat Unrivaled Belle twice, in the Ogden Phipps (gr. I) and Beldame (gr. I) but never did a bit of running in the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic and failed to complete the race.
HORSE OF THE YEAR
1st - Zenyatta
2nd - Blame
3rd - Quality Road
I have always felt that the Horse of the Year award should go to the best horse, not necessarily the horse that had the best campaign. Obviously, the strength of a horse's campaign should play a major part in how you vote. For example, suppose a brilliant two-year-old was to make one start at the end of the year and earn a Beyer Speed Figure of 137. Perhaps he is the best horse in the country, but I would not vote for him based off of a single start. A combination of things must be considered when voting for Horse of the Year.
Zenyatta and Blame both had spectacular campaigns in 2010. Leading up to the Breeders' Cup Classic, Zenyatta had won five grade I races against fillies and mares while Blame had won two grade Is, a grade III, and finished second in a grade I. In the Classic, as everyone knows, Zenyatta rallied furiously from impossibly far back despite a less-than-ideal trip and fell a half-head short of catching Blame. A stride or two past the finish line she had her nose in front. Take nothing away from Blame. He managed to do what no horse before him had done, and that is beat Zenyatta. But despite his brilliant victory, I feel Zenyatta was the better racehorse.
It is also interesting to think of it this way. Suppose Zenyatta had been faced with the task of catching Battle Plan in the Stephen Foster Handicap, or Quality Road in the Whitney. I honestly believe that she could have done so easily. On the other hand, I don't believe that Blame could have caught St. Trinians while giving her nine pounds in the Vanity Handicap.
If I had a vote for Horse of the Year, it would go to Zenyatta, whom I feel proved that she was not only the best horse in 2010, but one of the horses to have ever graced the American turf.
-Keelerman
Although I do not have a vote, below are the names of the horses that I would vote for if I did. I have put much time and thought into making these selections, and I hope that you enjoy them.
Here they are: my top three picks in each category. I shall talk about my top three selections in the horse categories, but my top pick in the human divisions.
CHAMPION TRAINER
1st - Todd Pletcher
2nd - John Shirreffs
3rd - Bob Baffert
After losing the last to Eclipse awards to Steve Asmussen, Todd Pletcher is once again back in the spotlight; a shoe-in for the Eclipse award. He did everything. He won the Kentucky Derby; three Breeders' Cup races; trained Uncle Mo, Super Saver, Eskendereya, Discreetly Mine, Pluck, More Than Real, Life at Ten, and others; and oh yes, he led the leading earners list by just shy of $7,000,000. Not bad!
CHAMPION JOCKEY
1st - Garrett Gomez
2nd - Ramon Dominguez
3rd - Joel Rosario
Although he finished fourth on the leading earners list, Garrett Gomez had a spectacular year that culminated with three Breeders' Cup victories, including the Classic on Blame. He amazingly finished only about $500,000 behind leading earner Ramon Dominguez despite riding in 674 less races than the latter.
CHAMPION OWNER
1st - WinStar Farm
2nd - Mr. and Mrs. Jerome S. Moss
3rd - Claiborne Farm and Adele B. Dilschneider
WinStar farms had a banner year in 2010, winning both the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes, as well as a host of other good races. Super Saver, Drosselmeyer, Rule, and Endorsement, are among the stakes winners they campaigned, and they topped the leading owners by earnings chart with over $5,100,000.
CHAMPION BREEDER
1st - Adena Springs
2nd - Brereton C. Jones
3rd - Edward P. Evans
For the eighth consecutive year, Adena Springs led the list of leading breeders by earnings, a remarkable achievement which definitely earns them the Eclipse award. They led the earnings list by almost $6,000,000.
CHAMPION APPRENTICE JOCKEY
1nd - Forest Boyce
2nd - Angel Serpa
3rd - Omar Moreno
Forest Boyce had a truly incredible year, winning 119 races from 702 mounts. Her mounts have finished in the top three in 337 races. Her total earnings have amounted to a solid $1,887,564.
CHAMPION STEEPLECHASE HORSE
1st - Arcadius
2nd - Slip Away
3rd - Percussionist
In a year where no standout steeplechaser emerged, I believe that Arcadius was the best of 2010. He never finished worse than third and finished ahead of Slip Away in three of the four occasions where they met. His victory in the Helen Haskell Sampson Hurdle Stakes was excellent. Slip Away had a very good year too, with a 25 3/4 length victory Colonial Cup Hurdle Stakes the crowning moment. Percussionist only made two starts in the United States, winning the Grand National Hurdle Stakes by seven lengths over Slip Away before finishing sixth, beaten 92 1/2 lengths by the latter in the Colonial Cup.
CHAMPION FEMALE SPRINTER
1st - Dubai Majesty
2nd - Switch
3rd - Champagne d'Oro
This division was filled with confusion throughout the year, as there was no true standout. But Dubai Majesty changed all that when she held off Switch to win the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, capping a year which saw her win on dirt, synthetic, and turf tracks; finish worse than third only once; and beat all of the leading contenders save Rightly So. Her year was far from a typical championship campaign, as she lost more races than she won, but she proved herself best over the course of the year.
Switch, although she only won one sprint race, turned into a true monster filly toward the end of the year. As the conclusion to a season which saw her beat Blind Luck and finish second to Zenyatta, she ran a strong second to Dubai Majesty in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint and turned in a dominating performance in the seven-furlong La Brea Stakes (gr. I) on December 26th. In the latter race, she beat Champagne d'Oro, meaning that she finished ahead of the latter both times in which they met.
As for Champagne d'Oro, she had a very good year with victories in the Acorn Stakes (gr. I) and Test Stakes (gr. I) but simply did not run well enough often enough to earn the championship.
CHAMPION MALE SPRINTER
1st - Majesticperfection
2nd - Big Drama
3rd - Smiling Tiger
This is one of the trickier categories. Big Drama won the Breeders' Cup Sprint and had a very solid year, but Majesticperfection beat him easily and fairly in the grade I Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap. Majesticperfection also proved victorious in the Iowa Sprint Handicap, where he ran six furlongs in a scorching 1:07 1/5. I firmly believe that he was the best sprinter of 2010 and deserves the Eclipse award despite his abbreviated campaign.
As for Smiling Tiger, I liked the fact that he beat his elders twice in grade I competition (in the Bing Crosby and Ancient Title Stakes) and finished a decent third in the Breeders' Cup Sprint. He defeated very nice horses throughout the year and deserves more respect than he gets.
CHAMPION TURF FEMALE
1st - Proviso
2nd - Goldikova
3rd - Tuscan Evening
This is one of the most debatable catagories of all. If I had a vote, it would go to Proviso. She won four straight grade I victories, including the Frank E. Kilroe Mile against colts, before running seventh in the Breeders' Cup Mile. Goldikova won that Breeders' Cup Mile, and I do believe that she is probably better than Proviso, but I wouldn't vote for her based strictly on the fact that she made only one start in the United States. If not for that fact, I would vote for her. But I feel that Proviso is more deserving of the American Eclipse award.
As for Tuscan Evening, who went 6-for-6 this year, it is impossible to say how good she might have been. Her untimely death was one of the low points of the year and left many heart broken. She won't win the Eclipse award, but I will always wonder if she might have been the best of her division. She will be greatly missed.
CHAMPION TURF MALE
1st - Gio Ponti
2nd - Champ Pegasus
3rd - Chamberlain Bridge
This is a fascinating category, as there were no standouts. Gio Ponti only won two of seven races, but both victories were grade I. Also, he finished worse than second only once, when beaten a length while fourth in the $10,000,000 Dubai World Cup, which is hardly a detriment. Considering that he finished second in three grade I races, including the Breeders' Cup Mile, he would receive my vote.
Champ Pegasus became a superstar by the end of the year despite breaking his maiden in April, winning the Del Mar Handicap (gr. II) and Clement L. Hirsch Memorial Turf Championship Stakes (gr. I) in impressive fashion. He then ran a terrific second in the Breeders' Cup Turf despite setting the pace.
As for Chamberlain Bridge, the brilliant turf sprinter had a banner year during which he won five stakes races, including the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint. His strong performances throughout the year earn him the third spot in my opinion.
CHAMPION 2yo FEMALE
1st - Awesome Feather
2nd - Turbulent Descent
3rd - R Heat Lightning
Awesome Feather had a lot to prove coming in to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies but she passed every test with flying colors, out gaming R Heat Lightning in the stretch to win by slightly more than two lengths. The victory capped off a brilliant campaign during which she went 6-for-6.
Turbulent Descent looked like a potential star when she won the Moccasin Stakes (gr. III) and backed that up by winning the grade I Hollywood Starlet Stakes in brilliant fashion, making her one of the top prospects for next year's Kentucky Oaks but not a contender for the Eclipse award this year.
R Heat Lightning had won the Spinaway Stakes (gr. I) and finished second in the Frizette Stakes (gr. I) entering the Breeders' Cup, but lost any chance at earning the championship when she lost her duel with Awesome Feather.
CHAMPION 2yo MALE
1st - Uncle Mo
2nd - Boys at Tosconova
3rd - To Honor and Serve
Uncle Mo is perhaps the best two-year-old colt to run during the past ten or fifteen years. He broke his maiden first time out by over fourteen lengths, then dominated the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) when he turned in a 1:34 2/5 mile. His victory in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile was nothing short of spectacular, as he galloped home 4 1/4 lengths in front of Boys at Tosconova in a brilliant performance.
As for the latter, he could have been the Champion 2yo Male in any normal year, and his Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) victory was extremely impressive. But when asked to match strides with Mo in the stretch of the Breeders' Cup, he was unable to do so.
To Honor and Serve could end up being the best of the lot, as his stakes victories in the Nashua Stakes (gr. II) and Remsen Stakes (gr. II) were both remarkable. But his failure to win, or even run in, a grade I race leaves him in the third spot.
CHAMPION 3yo FEMALE
1st - Blind Luck
2nd - Evening Jewel
3rd - Devil May Care
Blind Luck is a truly rare horse; one who can handle a long, tough campaign without flinching. Throughout the year, she made nine starts, won three grade I races, placed in two more, never finished worse than third, and concluded the year with a strong second in the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic. Her Kentucky Oaks victory was amazing.
Evening Jewel was a brilliant campaigner too, winning grade I races on synthetic and turf while finishing second in the Kentucky Oaks. Her versatility is rare; as is her talent. If she had not been nosed out by Blind Luck in both the Kentucky Oaks and Las Virgenes Stakes, she probably would be voted Champion 3yo filly.
Although sickness cut Devil May Care's year short, she still had time to win the Mother Goose and Coaching Club American Oaks, giving her two grade I victories which, in my opinion, puts her ahead of Havre de Grace for third.
CHAMPION 3yo MALE
1st - Lookin at Lucky
2nd - Eskendereya
3rd - Smiling Tiger
Lookin at Lucky is the only horse in this category to have really established himself as the best, with victories in the Haskell Invitational (gr. I) and Preakness Stakes (gr. I) among his four victories.
Perhaps Eskendereya could have beaten him, but unfortunately he was injured before he could show how good he truly was. Still, his easy triumphs in the Fountain of Youth (gr. II) and Wood Memorial (gr. I) earned him deep respect and he deserved to be on this list.
As I mentioned above, I love the fact that Smiling Tiger won two grade I races against older males, something Lookin at Lucky failed to accomplish.
CHAMPION OLDER MALE
1st - Blame
2nd - Quality Road
3rd - Gio Ponti
There was really no debate here. Blame proved himself to be the best older male in the country by beating everyone, including Zenyatta, in the Breeders' Cup Classic. Although he was soundly beaten in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, he more than made up for that dismal performance.
Quality Road, although he turned in a terrible last-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Classic, earned my respect through brilliant victories in the Donn Handicap, Metropolitan Handicap, and Woodward Stakes (all grade I).
Gio Ponti, although not as good as he was last year, ran some great races and his second in the Breeders' Cup Mile was a strong performance indeed.
CHAMPION OLDER FEMALE
1st - Zenyatta
2nd - Unrivaled Belle
3rd - Life at Ten
Zenyatta, as she did in 2008 and 2009, proved herself to be heads and shoulders above the rest of the older mares. Five grade I victories against fillies and mares were followed by a tremendous second in the Breeders' Cup Classic where she rallied from impossibly far back to miss by a half-head.
Unrivaled Belle proved herself to be among the leaders of the remaining mares, with victories over Rachel Alexandra in the La Troienne Stakes and Blind Luck in the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic earning her the second spot.
Life at Ten beat Unrivaled Belle twice, in the Ogden Phipps (gr. I) and Beldame (gr. I) but never did a bit of running in the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic and failed to complete the race.
HORSE OF THE YEAR
1st - Zenyatta
2nd - Blame
3rd - Quality Road
I have always felt that the Horse of the Year award should go to the best horse, not necessarily the horse that had the best campaign. Obviously, the strength of a horse's campaign should play a major part in how you vote. For example, suppose a brilliant two-year-old was to make one start at the end of the year and earn a Beyer Speed Figure of 137. Perhaps he is the best horse in the country, but I would not vote for him based off of a single start. A combination of things must be considered when voting for Horse of the Year.
Zenyatta and Blame both had spectacular campaigns in 2010. Leading up to the Breeders' Cup Classic, Zenyatta had won five grade I races against fillies and mares while Blame had won two grade Is, a grade III, and finished second in a grade I. In the Classic, as everyone knows, Zenyatta rallied furiously from impossibly far back despite a less-than-ideal trip and fell a half-head short of catching Blame. A stride or two past the finish line she had her nose in front. Take nothing away from Blame. He managed to do what no horse before him had done, and that is beat Zenyatta. But despite his brilliant victory, I feel Zenyatta was the better racehorse.
It is also interesting to think of it this way. Suppose Zenyatta had been faced with the task of catching Battle Plan in the Stephen Foster Handicap, or Quality Road in the Whitney. I honestly believe that she could have done so easily. On the other hand, I don't believe that Blame could have caught St. Trinians while giving her nine pounds in the Vanity Handicap.
If I had a vote for Horse of the Year, it would go to Zenyatta, whom I feel proved that she was not only the best horse in 2010, but one of the horses to have ever graced the American turf.
-Keelerman
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- January 5th, 2011 - Old Hat Stakes Recap
The Old Hat Stakes ended with great surprise today. No, it wasn't all that surprising to see Final Mesa come home first. It was the remainder of the order of finish which had everyone scratching their heads and wondering what happened.
First off, Quantum Miss and Roxy Gap---whom were expected to set the pace or at least be close to it---found themselves fourth and sixth, respectively, in the early going after bumping each other at the start. As it turned out, It's Me Mom raced to the front to set the early pace. She was followed by Final Mesa, with Pomeroy's Pistol and Quantum Miss racing together.
The first quarter mile was run in a brilliant :21 3/5. Quantum Miss was beginning to inch closer to the lead, as were Pomeroy's Pistol and Final Mesa. Following a half-mile in :44 flat, Final Mesa took the lead and dared the other runners to try and catch her. Quantum Miss, despite being in the perfect position to strike, failed to rally and began to drop back. Roxy Gap was making a mild run from last, but Final Mesa's biggest challenge would come from Pomeroy's Pistol, the longshot at 34-1 who was running a huge race. At the eighth pole, the two fillies were separated by just a half-length, but Final Mesa drew off late to score by a convincing 1 3/4 lengths. Pomeroy's Pistol finished a very game second, with Roxy Gap a distant third, beaten seven lengths. It's Me Mom finished fourth.
Amazingly, Quantum Miss failed to any rally whatsoever, and the favorite tired to finish fifth, beaten by slightly more than eleven lengths. She did avoid finishing last, however, by coming home thirteen lengths in front of Mis Vizcaya, who faded badly on the turn.
Here are the results. . .
1 Final Mesa
2 Pomeroy's Pistol
3 Roxy Gap
4 It's Me Mom
5 Quantum Miss
6 Miz Viscaya
. . . versus my selections.
1 Quantum Miss
2 Roxy Gap
3 Final Mesa
4 It’s Me Mom
5 Pomeroys Pistol
6 Mis Viscaya
It is apparent that Pomeroy's Pistol is much better than anybody thought she was. Final Mesa proved that she is still the wonderful runner that she was early last year, and that her dismal performance in the Sorrento Stakes was a fluke. As for Quantum Miss, I am left wondering why she performed so poorly. Although she did stumble at the break and bumped with Roxy Gap, I don't believe that it cost her the eleven lengths by which she was beaten. Roxy Gap received the worst end of the bumping incident when she ended up last, as she is not a deep closer, but I felt that she ran well to finish third.
Several more great races are scheduled for next Saturday. I will be back in a day or so with my thoughts on them.
-Keelerman
First off, Quantum Miss and Roxy Gap---whom were expected to set the pace or at least be close to it---found themselves fourth and sixth, respectively, in the early going after bumping each other at the start. As it turned out, It's Me Mom raced to the front to set the early pace. She was followed by Final Mesa, with Pomeroy's Pistol and Quantum Miss racing together.
The first quarter mile was run in a brilliant :21 3/5. Quantum Miss was beginning to inch closer to the lead, as were Pomeroy's Pistol and Final Mesa. Following a half-mile in :44 flat, Final Mesa took the lead and dared the other runners to try and catch her. Quantum Miss, despite being in the perfect position to strike, failed to rally and began to drop back. Roxy Gap was making a mild run from last, but Final Mesa's biggest challenge would come from Pomeroy's Pistol, the longshot at 34-1 who was running a huge race. At the eighth pole, the two fillies were separated by just a half-length, but Final Mesa drew off late to score by a convincing 1 3/4 lengths. Pomeroy's Pistol finished a very game second, with Roxy Gap a distant third, beaten seven lengths. It's Me Mom finished fourth.
Amazingly, Quantum Miss failed to any rally whatsoever, and the favorite tired to finish fifth, beaten by slightly more than eleven lengths. She did avoid finishing last, however, by coming home thirteen lengths in front of Mis Vizcaya, who faded badly on the turn.
Here are the results. . .
1 Final Mesa
2 Pomeroy's Pistol
3 Roxy Gap
4 It's Me Mom
5 Quantum Miss
6 Miz Viscaya
. . . versus my selections.
1 Quantum Miss
2 Roxy Gap
3 Final Mesa
4 It’s Me Mom
5 Pomeroys Pistol
6 Mis Viscaya
It is apparent that Pomeroy's Pistol is much better than anybody thought she was. Final Mesa proved that she is still the wonderful runner that she was early last year, and that her dismal performance in the Sorrento Stakes was a fluke. As for Quantum Miss, I am left wondering why she performed so poorly. Although she did stumble at the break and bumped with Roxy Gap, I don't believe that it cost her the eleven lengths by which she was beaten. Roxy Gap received the worst end of the bumping incident when she ended up last, as she is not a deep closer, but I felt that she ran well to finish third.
Several more great races are scheduled for next Saturday. I will be back in a day or so with my thoughts on them.
-Keelerman
Tuesday, January 04, 2011
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- January 4th, 2010
Although it is rare for me to post a Triple Crown Countdown in the middle of the week, I feel I must due to the fact that there is a grade III stakes race for three-year-old fillies at Gulfstream Park tomorrow. The Old Hat Stakes has drawn a field of six, led by the undefeated Roxy Gap.
This will be a short post, for the Old Hat Stakes is the only race that I will be discussing, but I feel that the race is worthy of having its own post.
FEATURE RACE ---- The Old Hat Stakes (gr. III)
Six furlongs (Dirt) at Gulfstream Park
Here are the runners. . .
PP/Horse/Odds
1 Mis Vizcaya (15-1)
2 It’s Me Mom (4-1)
3 Final Mesa (7-2)
4 Pomeroy’s Pistol (10-1)
5 Quantum Miss (2-1)
6 Roxy Gap (9-5)
The 9-5 morning line favorite, as I mentioned above, is Roxy Gap. Undefeated in three starts, all of which came at Woodbine, the daughter of Indian Charlie out of Harts Gap broke her maiden going five furlongs on the all-weather track. She sat just off of a stiff early pace and rocketed past the leader past the three-eighths pole to win by an easy 6 ½ lengths, stopping the clock in :57 4/5.
Fifteen days later she came out for the 5-1/2-furlong Shady Well Stakes, where she wore down Tree Pose to score by 2 ½ lengths in 1:03.14, just off the track .44 off the track record. Sent off as the odds-on choice in her most recent start, a one-mile turf allowance race on August 21st, she set all of the pace before drawing off to win by nearly five lengths in 1:35 4/5. Various setbacks forced her to miss both the Natalma Stakes (gr. III) and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. II), both of which she would have had an excellent chance of winning. As it turned out, the allowance race would be her final start of 2010.
Although the distance of the Old Hat suits Roxy Gap just fine, this race will be her first on a dirt track. Whether or not she can handle it is the key to handicapping the race. She will carry co-top weight of 120 pounds and will be ridden by Julien Leparoux. She is trained by M. Casse.
Quantum Miss, 2-1 on the morning line, could prove to be Roxy Gap’s biggest threat. She has won two of her three races thus far, including a brilliant 16 length victory in the six-furlong Blue Mountain Stakes on November 24th. Granted, that was at Penn National, and this is taking a big step up in class, but her final time in the Blue Mountain was 1:09 3/5. I do believe that she is ready to take on the best Gulfstream has to offer. She will carry 120 pounds and will be ridden by Jeremy Rose. She is trained by Anthony Dutrow.
One filly that might be under bet is the third choice, Final Mesa. She broke her maiden by 7 ½ lengths in April and two consecutive stakes victories after that made her the favorite in the grade III Sorrento Stakes at Del Mar. However, she turned in a dismal performance and finished sixth of seven, beaten seven lengths. She has not raced since then. Obviously, the lengthy layoff is a concern, but she is in the same boat as Roxy Gap. Trained by Wesley Ward, she is to be ridden by Joel Rosario and will carry 120 pounds.
The fourth choice is It’s Me Mom, a Florida-bred who has yet to finish worse than third in six starts. Although it took her three attempts to break her maiden, she has since won an allowance race and the Presque Isle Debutante Stakes. However, in her only start on a dirt track, the Sandpiper Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs on December 26th, she finished a distant second behind Devilish Lady. She may not be quite as good on dirt as she is on all-weather tracks.
The longshots are Pomeroys Pistol (10-1) and Mis Vizcaya (15-1). The former has but one win from three starts, that coming in a maiden special weight race. Her two starts since then have yielded a fifth in the Sorority Stakes and a third in an allowance race tired in the final eighth of a mile after nearly taking the lead. As for Mis Vizcaya, she has two wins from seven starts, neither of those victories coming in stakes races. None of her performances thus far have been good enough to win this race, which is why she is the longest shot in the field. Both Pomeroys Pistol and Mis Viscaya will carry 116 pounds.
Here are my selections. . .
1 Quantum Miss
2 Roxy Gap
3 Final Mesa
4 It’s Me Mom
5 Pomeroys Pistol
6 Mis Viscaya
I almost picked Roxy Gap to win, and I’m sure that she will run a fine race, but I believe that Quantum Miss is equally talented and has a conditioning advantage. It should be an interesting race.
Enjoy the opening of the Gulfstream meet!
-Keelerman
This will be a short post, for the Old Hat Stakes is the only race that I will be discussing, but I feel that the race is worthy of having its own post.
FEATURE RACE ---- The Old Hat Stakes (gr. III)
Six furlongs (Dirt) at Gulfstream Park
Here are the runners. . .
PP/Horse/Odds
1 Mis Vizcaya (15-1)
2 It’s Me Mom (4-1)
3 Final Mesa (7-2)
4 Pomeroy’s Pistol (10-1)
5 Quantum Miss (2-1)
6 Roxy Gap (9-5)
The 9-5 morning line favorite, as I mentioned above, is Roxy Gap. Undefeated in three starts, all of which came at Woodbine, the daughter of Indian Charlie out of Harts Gap broke her maiden going five furlongs on the all-weather track. She sat just off of a stiff early pace and rocketed past the leader past the three-eighths pole to win by an easy 6 ½ lengths, stopping the clock in :57 4/5.
Fifteen days later she came out for the 5-1/2-furlong Shady Well Stakes, where she wore down Tree Pose to score by 2 ½ lengths in 1:03.14, just off the track .44 off the track record. Sent off as the odds-on choice in her most recent start, a one-mile turf allowance race on August 21st, she set all of the pace before drawing off to win by nearly five lengths in 1:35 4/5. Various setbacks forced her to miss both the Natalma Stakes (gr. III) and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. II), both of which she would have had an excellent chance of winning. As it turned out, the allowance race would be her final start of 2010.
Although the distance of the Old Hat suits Roxy Gap just fine, this race will be her first on a dirt track. Whether or not she can handle it is the key to handicapping the race. She will carry co-top weight of 120 pounds and will be ridden by Julien Leparoux. She is trained by M. Casse.
Quantum Miss, 2-1 on the morning line, could prove to be Roxy Gap’s biggest threat. She has won two of her three races thus far, including a brilliant 16 length victory in the six-furlong Blue Mountain Stakes on November 24th. Granted, that was at Penn National, and this is taking a big step up in class, but her final time in the Blue Mountain was 1:09 3/5. I do believe that she is ready to take on the best Gulfstream has to offer. She will carry 120 pounds and will be ridden by Jeremy Rose. She is trained by Anthony Dutrow.
One filly that might be under bet is the third choice, Final Mesa. She broke her maiden by 7 ½ lengths in April and two consecutive stakes victories after that made her the favorite in the grade III Sorrento Stakes at Del Mar. However, she turned in a dismal performance and finished sixth of seven, beaten seven lengths. She has not raced since then. Obviously, the lengthy layoff is a concern, but she is in the same boat as Roxy Gap. Trained by Wesley Ward, she is to be ridden by Joel Rosario and will carry 120 pounds.
The fourth choice is It’s Me Mom, a Florida-bred who has yet to finish worse than third in six starts. Although it took her three attempts to break her maiden, she has since won an allowance race and the Presque Isle Debutante Stakes. However, in her only start on a dirt track, the Sandpiper Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs on December 26th, she finished a distant second behind Devilish Lady. She may not be quite as good on dirt as she is on all-weather tracks.
The longshots are Pomeroys Pistol (10-1) and Mis Vizcaya (15-1). The former has but one win from three starts, that coming in a maiden special weight race. Her two starts since then have yielded a fifth in the Sorority Stakes and a third in an allowance race tired in the final eighth of a mile after nearly taking the lead. As for Mis Vizcaya, she has two wins from seven starts, neither of those victories coming in stakes races. None of her performances thus far have been good enough to win this race, which is why she is the longest shot in the field. Both Pomeroys Pistol and Mis Viscaya will carry 116 pounds.
Here are my selections. . .
1 Quantum Miss
2 Roxy Gap
3 Final Mesa
4 It’s Me Mom
5 Pomeroys Pistol
6 Mis Viscaya
I almost picked Roxy Gap to win, and I’m sure that she will run a fine race, but I believe that Quantum Miss is equally talented and has a conditioning advantage. It should be an interesting race.
Enjoy the opening of the Gulfstream meet!
-Keelerman
Monday, January 03, 2011
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- January 3rd, 2011
Of the four stakes races for three-year-olds that I mentioned on my last post, none of them were won by the favorite. Upsets ranging from 5-2 to 6-1 were witnessed, as the favorites turned in one second, two thirds, and one sixth place finishes. The feature race from last week, the Count Fleet Stakes, yielded the biggest upset of all.
Count Fleet Stakes Recap
The favorite was Rush Now at 2.10-1. Pants On Fire was the narrow second choice at 2.35-1. My selection, Monzon, wasn't completely friendless as the 6.20-1 fourth choice, but was certainly not the favorite.
Pants On Fire, as expected, broke quickest of all and took the early lead. He was followed closely by J J's Lucky Train and Rush Now. The latter was forced to take the first turn very wide and was in a tough spot early, chasing a fast pace while three wide. He was followed by Tap Star, who was sitting 3 1/2 lengths from the lead; Arthur's Tale, who was another length behind him, and Monzon, who was ten lengths off the pace while showing no early speed.
The opening quarter mile was run in :23 2/5, and the positions remained unchanged through a half in :47 2/5 and three quarters of a mile in 1:12 1/5. However, at this point, J J's Lucky Train was ready to make his move. He distanced himself from Rush Now and moved to within a head of Pants On Fire. Rush Now was beginning to show signs of tiring as Tap Star and Arthur's Tale moved into contention.
As the field turned for home, J J's Lucky Train took a narrow lead from Pants On Fire and appeared to be home free. However, Monzon was rallying furiously on the far outside; benefiting greatly from the intense early pace. With powerful strides, he surged down the center of the racetrack and inhaled J J's Lucky Train inside the final sixteenth, drawing away to win by an easy half-length under a light drive.
Credit must be given to J J's Lucky Train, who was game down to the final strides while finishing second. He helped set a sharp pace and finished 3 1/2 lengths clear of Pants On Fire, who tired late to finish third while barely holding off Arthur's Tale for that spot. Tap Star was another half-length behind them, and Rush Now finished a dismal last, nearly nineteen lengths behind the winner.
Monzon, owned by Sagamore Farm, was ridden by Edgar Prado and is trained by Ignacio Correas IV. He completed the one mile and seventy yards distance in 1:42 2/5. Time will tell how good he truly is, but I must say that his performance was exceptional and he is a gelding worthy of keeping an eye on. The Whirlaway Stakes in February seems like a logical goal, assuming that he is to continue along the Triple Crown Trail.
Here are the complete results. . .
1 Monzon
2 J J's Lucky Train
3 Pants On Fire
4 Arthur's Tale
5 Tap Star
6 Rush Now
. . .and here were my picks.
1 Monzon
2 Rush Now
3 Tap Star
4 Pants On Fire
5 Arthur's Tale
6 J J's Lucky Train
It appears as though J J's Lucky Train is considerably better than I thought he was. He will definitely be receiving more respect from me in the future! Fortunately, although I failed miserably at handicapping this race for the most part, Monzon did prove that my confidence in him was justified.
Other Race Results
The California Oaks was not your typical $100,000 stakes race. A one mile and one sixteenth event for three year old fillies, only four were entered. Cathy's Crunches was the odds-on favorite at 1-2, with Lilacs and Lace sent off at 5-2. Game to Run was the third choice at 4-1 and Sister Glady Oh La was very lightly regarded at 21.60-1.
The race was virtually a match race between the two favorites. Cathy's Crunches broke quickest of all and took up and early 1 1/2 length advantage of Lilacs and Lace while rattling off very slow fractions of :25 1/5 and :50 4/5. Game To Run was right behind them racing third when she broke down suddenly, dropping out of contention, leaving only three fillies to complete the race.
Following three quarters of a mile in 1:15 4/5, Cathy's Crunches held an easy two-length lead and appeared to be on her way to an overwhelming victory. However, as the field turned for home, she was unable to shake Lilacs and Lace. Although Cathy's Crunches held a 1 1/2 lead at the eighth pole, Lilacs and Lace continued to grind on the outside and turned the 1 1/2 length deficit into a 1 1/2 length victory, completing the mile and a sixteenth in 1:46 1/5. She was ridden by Russel Baze. Cathy's Crunches finished 5 1/2 lengths clear of Sister Glady Oh La, who never threatened. Game to Run was vanned off and I have not heard anything about her since. Hopefully, she will be okay.
In the grade III Tropical Park Derby, the favorite was Swift Warrior at 3-2. Never more than 2 1/2 lengths behind, he seemed to be on his way to victory at the field turned for home, but flattened out and finished third.
In the end, it was King Congie at 7-2 who came from sixth to capture the grade III event. The early pace was set by Private Prize, who broke a tad slowly but was sent straight to the lead. He was followed by Relampago, a 90-1 shot who was rank in the early going and would tire to finish last. Racing Aptitude was sitting third, followed by Swift Warrior and Tag V Eye. King Congie was sixth, about three lengths back following an opening quarter mile in :24 flat.
Private Prize continued to show the way through relatively easy fractions of :48 2/5 and 1:12 3/5, but King Congie was beginning to roll and was within a head of the front runner as the field entered the homestretch. Swift Warrior had made a four-wide bid and was in with every chance, but he was unable to finish off his rally and began to weaken.
This left Private Prize and King Congie on the lead. The former was valiant throughout the stretch drive; gamely stemming off the rally of his stubborn rival. King Congie, although drifting out in the stretch, was equally game and unrelenting. It is a shame to have a loser in such a battle, but one colt or the other had to give in.
Private Prize, running straight and true along the hedge, never once wavered in courage but was obviously tiring. In the final strides, he reluctantly allowed King Congie to pass. The latter drove on to win the race by a half-length under Javier Castellano. Private Prize finished second, 2 1/2 lengths clear of Swift Warrior. East of Danzig finished a non-threatening fourth.
The final time was 1:49 2/5. Here are the complete results. . .
1 King Congie
2 Private Prize
3 Swift Warrior
4 East of Danzig
5 Racing Aptitude
6 Halo's Thunder
7 And I Like It Too
8 I Love It
9 Tag V Eye
10 Relamoago
. . . and here were my selections.
1 Swift Warrior
2 Racing Aptitude
3 Private Prize
Private Prize proved to be considerably tougher than I thought he was. I was very impressed by his courage in the homestretch and do believe that multiple stakes wins are on the horizon for this fine colt. As for King Congie, he was equally game in the homestretch, although he did drift outward in the stretch. It is doubtful that either of them are Triple Crown caliber horses, but both merit watching. After all, you never know where the next great horse might come from!
There was an equally thrilling stretch drive in the Tropical Park Oaks, the fillies' version of the Tropical Park Derby. A sixteenth of a mile shorter that the colts' race, the Oaks favorite was Triune at 5-2. A Brilliant Idea was the second choice at 3.40-1, with Dynamic Holiday at 3.50-1. I had no opinion as to who would win the race, but I had been keeping my eye on A Brilliant Idea and was curious as to how well she would perform.
As it turned out, the top three betting choices finished 1-2-3 in the Tropical Park Oaks; albiet not in the expected order. The early pace was set by Blue Angel Express, who broke last but was quickly rushed up to take the lead. She was followed closely by Triune and together they cut out a stiff opening quarter mile in :23 1/5. Dynamic Holiday and A Brilliant Idea were sitting in fifth and sixth, respectively, with three lengths separating them.
Following a half-mile in :48 flat, Triune made a move to take the lead from Blue Angel Express. Dynamic Holiday had moved up to third, just 2 1/2 lengths from the front, and A Brilliant Idea was also moving closer. Triune held a half-length lead following three quarters of a mile in 1:12 3/5, but as she turned for home, company was arriving in the form of Dynamic Holiday and A Brilliant Idea, who were separated by only a neck now. The former, racing in the three path while on the inside of A Brilliant Idea, accelerated quickly in the homestretch and took the lead from Triume approaching the eighth pole. A Brilliant Idea was a length behind her, seemingly beaten with only 220 yards to go.
However, with a sudden burst of energy, A Brilliant Idea began to surge. Closer and closer she came to Dynamic Holiday. The pair hit the wire together, stopping the clock in 1:43 4/5. It was impossible to say for sure who had won.
The photo showed that Dynamic Holiday had secured the narrowest of nose victories, just holding off A Brilliant Idea for the victory. The latter was game to the finish, and looks to have a very bright future. Triume finished third, a length and a half behind the top two finishers. It is likely that she could have performed still better had she not dueled through that sharp opening quarter mile.
Here are the complete results. . .
1 Dynamic Holiday
2 A Brilliant Idea
3 Triune
4 Greatest dream
5 Michell's Trip
6 Sweet N Nutty
7 Lemons to Lemonade
8 Blue Angel Express
The winner was ridden by Julien Leparoux. I must admit that I am greatly looking forward to her next start; as well as the next start of A Brilliant Idea. Both fillies showed great talent and have a ton of potential.
The final race that merits mention on this post is yesterday's second race from Aqueduct. Crossbow, the 1-4 favorite, broke well and quickly took the lead, never looking back en route to a three lengths victory under a hand ride. By Bernardini out of Forest Wildcat mare Forest Heiress, he seems to have a lot of talent and his future looks very bright. He was ridden by Ramon Dominguez and is trained by Kiaran McLaughlin.
In conclusion, it was a great, if not surprising, two days of racing. Next weekend promises to be even better, with the Spectacular Bid Stakes at Gulfstream Park and the grade III Santa Ysable Stakes at Santa Anita the among the great set of stakes races scheduled. Be sure not to miss them!
-Keelerman
Count Fleet Stakes Recap
The favorite was Rush Now at 2.10-1. Pants On Fire was the narrow second choice at 2.35-1. My selection, Monzon, wasn't completely friendless as the 6.20-1 fourth choice, but was certainly not the favorite.
Pants On Fire, as expected, broke quickest of all and took the early lead. He was followed closely by J J's Lucky Train and Rush Now. The latter was forced to take the first turn very wide and was in a tough spot early, chasing a fast pace while three wide. He was followed by Tap Star, who was sitting 3 1/2 lengths from the lead; Arthur's Tale, who was another length behind him, and Monzon, who was ten lengths off the pace while showing no early speed.
The opening quarter mile was run in :23 2/5, and the positions remained unchanged through a half in :47 2/5 and three quarters of a mile in 1:12 1/5. However, at this point, J J's Lucky Train was ready to make his move. He distanced himself from Rush Now and moved to within a head of Pants On Fire. Rush Now was beginning to show signs of tiring as Tap Star and Arthur's Tale moved into contention.
As the field turned for home, J J's Lucky Train took a narrow lead from Pants On Fire and appeared to be home free. However, Monzon was rallying furiously on the far outside; benefiting greatly from the intense early pace. With powerful strides, he surged down the center of the racetrack and inhaled J J's Lucky Train inside the final sixteenth, drawing away to win by an easy half-length under a light drive.
Credit must be given to J J's Lucky Train, who was game down to the final strides while finishing second. He helped set a sharp pace and finished 3 1/2 lengths clear of Pants On Fire, who tired late to finish third while barely holding off Arthur's Tale for that spot. Tap Star was another half-length behind them, and Rush Now finished a dismal last, nearly nineteen lengths behind the winner.
Monzon, owned by Sagamore Farm, was ridden by Edgar Prado and is trained by Ignacio Correas IV. He completed the one mile and seventy yards distance in 1:42 2/5. Time will tell how good he truly is, but I must say that his performance was exceptional and he is a gelding worthy of keeping an eye on. The Whirlaway Stakes in February seems like a logical goal, assuming that he is to continue along the Triple Crown Trail.
Here are the complete results. . .
1 Monzon
2 J J's Lucky Train
3 Pants On Fire
4 Arthur's Tale
5 Tap Star
6 Rush Now
. . .and here were my picks.
1 Monzon
2 Rush Now
3 Tap Star
4 Pants On Fire
5 Arthur's Tale
6 J J's Lucky Train
It appears as though J J's Lucky Train is considerably better than I thought he was. He will definitely be receiving more respect from me in the future! Fortunately, although I failed miserably at handicapping this race for the most part, Monzon did prove that my confidence in him was justified.
Other Race Results
The California Oaks was not your typical $100,000 stakes race. A one mile and one sixteenth event for three year old fillies, only four were entered. Cathy's Crunches was the odds-on favorite at 1-2, with Lilacs and Lace sent off at 5-2. Game to Run was the third choice at 4-1 and Sister Glady Oh La was very lightly regarded at 21.60-1.
The race was virtually a match race between the two favorites. Cathy's Crunches broke quickest of all and took up and early 1 1/2 length advantage of Lilacs and Lace while rattling off very slow fractions of :25 1/5 and :50 4/5. Game To Run was right behind them racing third when she broke down suddenly, dropping out of contention, leaving only three fillies to complete the race.
Following three quarters of a mile in 1:15 4/5, Cathy's Crunches held an easy two-length lead and appeared to be on her way to an overwhelming victory. However, as the field turned for home, she was unable to shake Lilacs and Lace. Although Cathy's Crunches held a 1 1/2 lead at the eighth pole, Lilacs and Lace continued to grind on the outside and turned the 1 1/2 length deficit into a 1 1/2 length victory, completing the mile and a sixteenth in 1:46 1/5. She was ridden by Russel Baze. Cathy's Crunches finished 5 1/2 lengths clear of Sister Glady Oh La, who never threatened. Game to Run was vanned off and I have not heard anything about her since. Hopefully, she will be okay.
In the grade III Tropical Park Derby, the favorite was Swift Warrior at 3-2. Never more than 2 1/2 lengths behind, he seemed to be on his way to victory at the field turned for home, but flattened out and finished third.
In the end, it was King Congie at 7-2 who came from sixth to capture the grade III event. The early pace was set by Private Prize, who broke a tad slowly but was sent straight to the lead. He was followed by Relampago, a 90-1 shot who was rank in the early going and would tire to finish last. Racing Aptitude was sitting third, followed by Swift Warrior and Tag V Eye. King Congie was sixth, about three lengths back following an opening quarter mile in :24 flat.
Private Prize continued to show the way through relatively easy fractions of :48 2/5 and 1:12 3/5, but King Congie was beginning to roll and was within a head of the front runner as the field entered the homestretch. Swift Warrior had made a four-wide bid and was in with every chance, but he was unable to finish off his rally and began to weaken.
This left Private Prize and King Congie on the lead. The former was valiant throughout the stretch drive; gamely stemming off the rally of his stubborn rival. King Congie, although drifting out in the stretch, was equally game and unrelenting. It is a shame to have a loser in such a battle, but one colt or the other had to give in.
Private Prize, running straight and true along the hedge, never once wavered in courage but was obviously tiring. In the final strides, he reluctantly allowed King Congie to pass. The latter drove on to win the race by a half-length under Javier Castellano. Private Prize finished second, 2 1/2 lengths clear of Swift Warrior. East of Danzig finished a non-threatening fourth.
The final time was 1:49 2/5. Here are the complete results. . .
1 King Congie
2 Private Prize
3 Swift Warrior
4 East of Danzig
5 Racing Aptitude
6 Halo's Thunder
7 And I Like It Too
8 I Love It
9 Tag V Eye
10 Relamoago
. . . and here were my selections.
1 Swift Warrior
2 Racing Aptitude
3 Private Prize
Private Prize proved to be considerably tougher than I thought he was. I was very impressed by his courage in the homestretch and do believe that multiple stakes wins are on the horizon for this fine colt. As for King Congie, he was equally game in the homestretch, although he did drift outward in the stretch. It is doubtful that either of them are Triple Crown caliber horses, but both merit watching. After all, you never know where the next great horse might come from!
There was an equally thrilling stretch drive in the Tropical Park Oaks, the fillies' version of the Tropical Park Derby. A sixteenth of a mile shorter that the colts' race, the Oaks favorite was Triune at 5-2. A Brilliant Idea was the second choice at 3.40-1, with Dynamic Holiday at 3.50-1. I had no opinion as to who would win the race, but I had been keeping my eye on A Brilliant Idea and was curious as to how well she would perform.
As it turned out, the top three betting choices finished 1-2-3 in the Tropical Park Oaks; albiet not in the expected order. The early pace was set by Blue Angel Express, who broke last but was quickly rushed up to take the lead. She was followed closely by Triune and together they cut out a stiff opening quarter mile in :23 1/5. Dynamic Holiday and A Brilliant Idea were sitting in fifth and sixth, respectively, with three lengths separating them.
Following a half-mile in :48 flat, Triune made a move to take the lead from Blue Angel Express. Dynamic Holiday had moved up to third, just 2 1/2 lengths from the front, and A Brilliant Idea was also moving closer. Triune held a half-length lead following three quarters of a mile in 1:12 3/5, but as she turned for home, company was arriving in the form of Dynamic Holiday and A Brilliant Idea, who were separated by only a neck now. The former, racing in the three path while on the inside of A Brilliant Idea, accelerated quickly in the homestretch and took the lead from Triume approaching the eighth pole. A Brilliant Idea was a length behind her, seemingly beaten with only 220 yards to go.
However, with a sudden burst of energy, A Brilliant Idea began to surge. Closer and closer she came to Dynamic Holiday. The pair hit the wire together, stopping the clock in 1:43 4/5. It was impossible to say for sure who had won.
The photo showed that Dynamic Holiday had secured the narrowest of nose victories, just holding off A Brilliant Idea for the victory. The latter was game to the finish, and looks to have a very bright future. Triume finished third, a length and a half behind the top two finishers. It is likely that she could have performed still better had she not dueled through that sharp opening quarter mile.
Here are the complete results. . .
1 Dynamic Holiday
2 A Brilliant Idea
3 Triune
4 Greatest dream
5 Michell's Trip
6 Sweet N Nutty
7 Lemons to Lemonade
8 Blue Angel Express
The winner was ridden by Julien Leparoux. I must admit that I am greatly looking forward to her next start; as well as the next start of A Brilliant Idea. Both fillies showed great talent and have a ton of potential.
The final race that merits mention on this post is yesterday's second race from Aqueduct. Crossbow, the 1-4 favorite, broke well and quickly took the lead, never looking back en route to a three lengths victory under a hand ride. By Bernardini out of Forest Wildcat mare Forest Heiress, he seems to have a lot of talent and his future looks very bright. He was ridden by Ramon Dominguez and is trained by Kiaran McLaughlin.
In conclusion, it was a great, if not surprising, two days of racing. Next weekend promises to be even better, with the Spectacular Bid Stakes at Gulfstream Park and the grade III Santa Ysable Stakes at Santa Anita the among the great set of stakes races scheduled. Be sure not to miss them!
-Keelerman
Sunday, January 02, 2011
KEELERMAN'S TOP TWENTY ---- January 2nd, 2011
1. To Honor and Serve - Trained by William Mott
This colt is bred to run a mile and a quarter --- and then some. His sire is Bernardini, winner of the Preakness, Travers, and Jockey Club Gold Cup. His grandsire is A.P. Indy, winner of the Belmont Stakes and the Breeders’ Cup Classic. His broodmare sire, Deputy Minister, is the broodmare sire of Curlin, among others. Wow.
2. Uncle Mo - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Perhaps it was just my imagination, but it seemed as though his stride in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile was considerably longer the other runners’ strides. The horse he was tracking, Riveting Reason, seemed to be taking a stride and a half to every stride of Uncle Mo’s.
3. Comma to the Top - Trained by Peter Miller
His performance in the CashCall Futurity was astonishing; but what is even more astonishing is that it was his tenth start of the year. He is a tough colt, one that appears to relish racing. His next start will be in February.
4. Santiva - Trained by Eddie Kennealy
The more I think about this colt, the more I like him. His pedigree is unique; one that is ready to carry him considerable distances. His running style is great too --- he has shown great versatility in his career thus far, coming from far back and from just off the lead to run well in major races.
5. Brethren - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Interestingly, he traces back to Native Dancer through his sire line --- the same sire line that has produced recent Kentucky Derby winners Super Saver, Mine That Bird, Street Sense, and Smarty Jones.
6. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo
He has recorded two workouts since running second in the Remsen Stakes: three furlongs in :37 flat and four furlongs in :50 2/5. Both workouts were at Gulfstream Park, which makes me think that a start in the Holy Bull Stakes is not out of the question.
7. Boys at Tosconova - Trained by Rick Dutrow
The Holy Bull Stakes in late January has been mentioned as the next start for the brilliant colt. He worked a handy five furlongs in 1:00 flat on December 31st at Gulfstream Park.
8. Jaycito - Trained by Bob Baffert
He has still not recorded a workout since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, which makes me believe that his next start will not come until early March, like Lookin at Lucky last year.
9. Rogue Romance - Trained by Kenneth McPeek
After giving the matter more thought, I do believe that I may be underestimating this colt. A son of Smarty Jones, he traces back to Raise a Native like Brethren does and his pedigree screams a mile and a quarter. I’m greatly looking forward to his next start.
10. Gourmet Dinner - Trained by Steven Standridge
Finished fourth in the CashCall Futurity despite a rough trip. It is likely that the colt prefers dirt to synthetics and remains a top Triple Crown contender. Perhaps the Holy Bull Stakes will be his next start.
11. Stay Thirsty - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Like his stable mate Uncle Mo, he has not worked out since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, which makes me think that his next start may come in the Fountain of Youth Stakes in February.
12. Premier Pegasus - Trained by Myung Cho
One thing that I would like to see this brilliant colt do is rate. It is obvious that he has natural speed, and his pedigree should carry him a mile and a quarter, but it would be nice to see him show that he can sit off the pace.
13. Turbulent Descent - Trained by Mike Puype
The current plan is to run this magnificent filly in the Las Virgenes Stakes next month, which means that a return to the work tab should be coming shortly. I’m really excited about her potential.
14. Astrology - Trained by Steven Asmussen
He has shipped to California with stablemate Tapizar to prep for the Triple Crown. Despite his nice pedigree, I am somewhat concerned about his ability to get a mile and a quarter. He had every opportunity to win the Kentucky Jockey Club, but just couldn’t get past Santiva.
15. Clubhouse Ride - Trained by Craig Lewis
Finished a late-running third in the CashCall Futurity despite a very rough trip. He seems to be a colt who is improving rapidly, and he may be better on dirt. With Santa Anita returning to a dirt surface, he should have plenty of opportunities to establish himself as a legitimate Triple Crown contender.
16. Awesome Feather - Trained by Chad Brown
Considering that she has not worked out since her Breeders’ Cup victory, her next start will likely not be for at least a month, perhaps even longer.
17. Dialed In - Trained by Nick Zito
Breezed five furlongs in 1:01 flat on December 24th at Palm Meadows Training Center. I suspect that the Holy Bull Stakes is on the horizon, considering that Nick Zito took the same route with Jackson Bend last year.
18. J P's Gusto - Trained by David Hofmans
Ran an encouraging second in the CashCall Futurity, coming on strongly from seventh to be beaten under two lengths. However, I still doubt his ability to run longer than a mile and a sixteenth. Still, he'll have plenty of time to prove himself this spring.
19. Tapizar - Trained by Steve Asmussen
The son of Tapit broke his maiden in brilliant fashion second time out, winning a maiden special weight race by over ten lengths in late November at Churchill Downs. He has been shipped to Santa Anita Park and will likely make his 2011 debut in the upcoming Sham Stakes.
20. Awesome Patriot – Trained by Bob Baffert
Turned in a breakthrough performance last time out, dueling with Riveting Reason one-mile distance of a December 29th allowance race to win by a half-length.
Other Notable Horses;
Anthony’s Cross – Currently, the plan is to start in the Sham Stakes on January 15th.
Bandbox – Has not worked out since his poor showing in the Remsen.
Buffum – Has not worked out since his poor showing in the Remsen.
Cool Blue Red Hot – Breezed four furlongs in :49 flat on December 30th.
Crossbow - Broke his maiden impressively today going six furlongs at Aqueduct.
Curlinello – Has not worked out since November 21st; I’m left wondering if a setback has occurred.
Decisive Moment – Worked a handy five furlongs in 1:00 flat on December 31st.
Elite Alex – Breezed five furlongs from the gate in 1:02 4/5 handily on December 31st.
Grant Jack – Breezed four furlongs in :49 4/5 on December 29st.
Kathmanblu – Impressive winner of the Golden Rod breezed four furlongs in :49 2/5 on December 31st.
Major Gain – Breezed four furlongs in :49.35 at Gulfstream Park on December 30th.
Monzon - Impressive winner of the Count Fleet Stakes; the Whirlaway Stakes could be his next start.
Mountain Town – The Fountain of Youth has been mentioned as his next start.
Positive Response – Promising gelding worked five furlongs in :59 3/5 handily this morning at Golden Gate Fields.
Read the Contract – Breezed four furlongs in :48 3/5 on December 28thy at Palm Meadows Training Center.
R Heat Lightning - Breezed four furlongs in :48 3/5 today in preparation for a start in the Forward Gal Stakes.
Riveting Reason – Finished a game second to Awesome Patriot in an allowance race.
Sweet Ducky – Most recent workout was a :59 2/5 breeze at Palm Meadows on December 28th.
The Factor - Trained by Bob Baffert; he broke the track record for six furlongs at Santa Anita on opening day.
Uncle Sam – Very sharp in a maiden victory on December 27th at Santa Anita.
-Keelerman
This colt is bred to run a mile and a quarter --- and then some. His sire is Bernardini, winner of the Preakness, Travers, and Jockey Club Gold Cup. His grandsire is A.P. Indy, winner of the Belmont Stakes and the Breeders’ Cup Classic. His broodmare sire, Deputy Minister, is the broodmare sire of Curlin, among others. Wow.
2. Uncle Mo - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Perhaps it was just my imagination, but it seemed as though his stride in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile was considerably longer the other runners’ strides. The horse he was tracking, Riveting Reason, seemed to be taking a stride and a half to every stride of Uncle Mo’s.
3. Comma to the Top - Trained by Peter Miller
His performance in the CashCall Futurity was astonishing; but what is even more astonishing is that it was his tenth start of the year. He is a tough colt, one that appears to relish racing. His next start will be in February.
4. Santiva - Trained by Eddie Kennealy
The more I think about this colt, the more I like him. His pedigree is unique; one that is ready to carry him considerable distances. His running style is great too --- he has shown great versatility in his career thus far, coming from far back and from just off the lead to run well in major races.
5. Brethren - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Interestingly, he traces back to Native Dancer through his sire line --- the same sire line that has produced recent Kentucky Derby winners Super Saver, Mine That Bird, Street Sense, and Smarty Jones.
6. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo
He has recorded two workouts since running second in the Remsen Stakes: three furlongs in :37 flat and four furlongs in :50 2/5. Both workouts were at Gulfstream Park, which makes me think that a start in the Holy Bull Stakes is not out of the question.
7. Boys at Tosconova - Trained by Rick Dutrow
The Holy Bull Stakes in late January has been mentioned as the next start for the brilliant colt. He worked a handy five furlongs in 1:00 flat on December 31st at Gulfstream Park.
8. Jaycito - Trained by Bob Baffert
He has still not recorded a workout since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, which makes me believe that his next start will not come until early March, like Lookin at Lucky last year.
9. Rogue Romance - Trained by Kenneth McPeek
After giving the matter more thought, I do believe that I may be underestimating this colt. A son of Smarty Jones, he traces back to Raise a Native like Brethren does and his pedigree screams a mile and a quarter. I’m greatly looking forward to his next start.
10. Gourmet Dinner - Trained by Steven Standridge
Finished fourth in the CashCall Futurity despite a rough trip. It is likely that the colt prefers dirt to synthetics and remains a top Triple Crown contender. Perhaps the Holy Bull Stakes will be his next start.
11. Stay Thirsty - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Like his stable mate Uncle Mo, he has not worked out since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, which makes me think that his next start may come in the Fountain of Youth Stakes in February.
12. Premier Pegasus - Trained by Myung Cho
One thing that I would like to see this brilliant colt do is rate. It is obvious that he has natural speed, and his pedigree should carry him a mile and a quarter, but it would be nice to see him show that he can sit off the pace.
13. Turbulent Descent - Trained by Mike Puype
The current plan is to run this magnificent filly in the Las Virgenes Stakes next month, which means that a return to the work tab should be coming shortly. I’m really excited about her potential.
14. Astrology - Trained by Steven Asmussen
He has shipped to California with stablemate Tapizar to prep for the Triple Crown. Despite his nice pedigree, I am somewhat concerned about his ability to get a mile and a quarter. He had every opportunity to win the Kentucky Jockey Club, but just couldn’t get past Santiva.
15. Clubhouse Ride - Trained by Craig Lewis
Finished a late-running third in the CashCall Futurity despite a very rough trip. He seems to be a colt who is improving rapidly, and he may be better on dirt. With Santa Anita returning to a dirt surface, he should have plenty of opportunities to establish himself as a legitimate Triple Crown contender.
16. Awesome Feather - Trained by Chad Brown
Considering that she has not worked out since her Breeders’ Cup victory, her next start will likely not be for at least a month, perhaps even longer.
17. Dialed In - Trained by Nick Zito
Breezed five furlongs in 1:01 flat on December 24th at Palm Meadows Training Center. I suspect that the Holy Bull Stakes is on the horizon, considering that Nick Zito took the same route with Jackson Bend last year.
18. J P's Gusto - Trained by David Hofmans
Ran an encouraging second in the CashCall Futurity, coming on strongly from seventh to be beaten under two lengths. However, I still doubt his ability to run longer than a mile and a sixteenth. Still, he'll have plenty of time to prove himself this spring.
19. Tapizar - Trained by Steve Asmussen
The son of Tapit broke his maiden in brilliant fashion second time out, winning a maiden special weight race by over ten lengths in late November at Churchill Downs. He has been shipped to Santa Anita Park and will likely make his 2011 debut in the upcoming Sham Stakes.
20. Awesome Patriot – Trained by Bob Baffert
Turned in a breakthrough performance last time out, dueling with Riveting Reason one-mile distance of a December 29th allowance race to win by a half-length.
Other Notable Horses;
Anthony’s Cross – Currently, the plan is to start in the Sham Stakes on January 15th.
Bandbox – Has not worked out since his poor showing in the Remsen.
Buffum – Has not worked out since his poor showing in the Remsen.
Cool Blue Red Hot – Breezed four furlongs in :49 flat on December 30th.
Crossbow - Broke his maiden impressively today going six furlongs at Aqueduct.
Curlinello – Has not worked out since November 21st; I’m left wondering if a setback has occurred.
Decisive Moment – Worked a handy five furlongs in 1:00 flat on December 31st.
Elite Alex – Breezed five furlongs from the gate in 1:02 4/5 handily on December 31st.
Grant Jack – Breezed four furlongs in :49 4/5 on December 29st.
Kathmanblu – Impressive winner of the Golden Rod breezed four furlongs in :49 2/5 on December 31st.
Major Gain – Breezed four furlongs in :49.35 at Gulfstream Park on December 30th.
Monzon - Impressive winner of the Count Fleet Stakes; the Whirlaway Stakes could be his next start.
Mountain Town – The Fountain of Youth has been mentioned as his next start.
Positive Response – Promising gelding worked five furlongs in :59 3/5 handily this morning at Golden Gate Fields.
Read the Contract – Breezed four furlongs in :48 3/5 on December 28thy at Palm Meadows Training Center.
R Heat Lightning - Breezed four furlongs in :48 3/5 today in preparation for a start in the Forward Gal Stakes.
Riveting Reason – Finished a game second to Awesome Patriot in an allowance race.
Sweet Ducky – Most recent workout was a :59 2/5 breeze at Palm Meadows on December 28th.
The Factor - Trained by Bob Baffert; he broke the track record for six furlongs at Santa Anita on opening day.
Uncle Sam – Very sharp in a maiden victory on December 27th at Santa Anita.
-Keelerman
Saturday, January 01, 2011
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- January 1st, 2011
A new year began today. A new year full of potential and excitement, especially for horse racing. For the first time in three years, Zenyatta will not be racing, leaving an opening for a new mare to take the stage and prove her greatness. On the Triple Crown Trail, we have promising two-year-olds turned three-year-olds Uncle Mo, To Honor and Serve, Boys at Tosconova, Comma to the Top, and many others. Horse of the Year is up for grabs.
As today is Saturday, there are several good races carded across the country, including several stakes races for the new three-year-olds. Although none of them are graded, they could potentially impact the Triple Crown Trail in major ways.
This week's feature race shall be the Count Fleet Stakes, a $65,000 stakes races run over the inner dirt track at Aqueduct at a distance of one mile and seventy yards. It is restricted to three-year-olds of both genders.
FEATURE RACE: THE COUNT FLEET STAKES
The Count Fleet Stakes drew a field of seven, but the scratch of Isn't He Perfect has left the field with only six runners. They are. . .
#/Horse/Morning Line Odds
1 Pants On Fire (5-2)
2 J J's Lucky Train (7-2)
3 Tap Star (10-1)
4 Rush Now (3-1)
5 Arthur's Tale (4-1)
6 Isn't He Perfect (Scratched)
7 Monzon (10-1)
The morning line favorite is Pants On Fire, who drew the rail. A son of Jump Start out of Cabo de Noche, he lost two maiden special weight races before coming through with a dominating performance going a mile at Delaware Park. Sent off as the favorite in the maiden special weight event, he quickly took the lead and drew off easily to win by seven lengths.
His next—and most recent—start came in an allowance optional claiming event going a mile and seventy yards over the Aqueduct inner track. Sent off as the third choice, he took the lead from the outset despite stumbling at the start and led all the way into the stretch before grudgingly giving way to Rescind the Trade. He ended up second, beaten a neck; 5 1/4 lengths in front of the third place finisher. The performance was excellent; one which definitely earns him the status as favorite today. Trained by Kelly Breen, he will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez.
The second choice is Rush Now, a son of Tiznow out of Dirty Rush. To be ridden by Jeremy Rose, he is to carry 122 pounds, six more than Pants On Fire. He is already a proven stakes winner, having won the Dover Stakes on October 9th in impressive fashion. Sent off as the third choice that day, he was sent straight to the lead and turned back the bid of Chipshot to score by just under four lengths. However, when tried against tougher company in the grade III, $1,000,000 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes, he finished a dismal seventh, beaten eighteen lengths after failing to get to the lead. The drop in class today should help his chances greatly, although he will still have to outduel Pants On Fire if he wants victory. He is trained by Anthony Dutrow.
This brings us to J J's Lucky Train, the third choice. Trained by William Anderson, the son of Silver Train out of the Thunder Gulch mare Delta Sensation broke his maiden in sharp fashion first time out. Sent off at nearly 8-1 in a maiden claiming event at Monmouth Park, he rated just off the pace before making a bold bid to win the 5-1/2 furlong event by 2 1/2 lengths.
This strong victory warranted a start in the grade III Sapling Stakes, also at Monmouth Park. Sent off at 37-1, he ended up sixth, beaten six lengths after failing to menace. This performance, lackluster as it was, raised his odds in his next start, a six-furlong starter allowance race at Monmouth Park. Sent off at 2-1, he made his odds seem like a bargain as he powered past the leader turning for home to draw off and win by nearly six lengths, stopping the clock in a sharp 1:10 3/5.
Amazingly, this impressive run was not enough to earn him the status of favorite in his most recent start, a one mile and seventy yards allowance race at Parx Racing. Sent off as the third choice, he went straight to the lead and held off all challengers en route to a 2 1/4 length victory. He seems to be the kind of colt who just keeps improving, and he looks like a legitimate contender here today, where he will carry 120 pounds and be ridden by Jose Ferrer.
Arthur's Tale is the fourth choice on the morning line, and he drew gate five. The son of Bernardini out of Owsley has made four starts thus far, all of them in maiden special weights at a variety of tracks. In the most recent of these races, a one-mile event on the inner track at Aqueduct, he secured his first victory by out gaming Dance City inside the eighth pole to win by two lengths despite being carried wide on the first turn. Trained by Thomas Albertrani, he is to carry 116 pounds this afternoon and be ridden by Eddie Castro.
Tap Star and Monzon are the longshots, both at 10-1. The former, a son of Tapit out of E T Phone Laura, has made five starts in maiden special weight company, winning the most recent in a very sharp performance. Set to carry 116 pounds, he will be ridden by Stewart Elliot and is trained by John Servis, the same jockey/trainer combination that brought Smarty Jones to victory in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes back in six years ago. Although this will be Tap Star's first start in a route race, I believe that he is ready for a monster performance.
As for Monzon, he broke his maiden back in August at Laurel Park going a mile, winning by nearly thirteen lengths. He followed up this effort by winning a one-mile turf allowance race by over five lengths. He has run in two stakes races since then, finishing fifth in the Bourbon Stakes (gr. III) on the turf at Keeneland and third in the Gnome's Gold Stakes on the inner turf at Belmont Park. It is entirely possible that returning to dirt could be the key to a top performance. If so, he should run great today under 118 pounds. He is trained by Ignacio Correas IV and will be ridden by Edgar Prado.
It is a difficult race to handicap, but here's what I came up with. . .
1 Monzon
2 Rush Now
3 Tap Star
4 Pants On Fire
5 Arthur's Tale
6 J J's Lucky Train
I know it is a bit of a longshot, but I do believe that there is enough pace in here to set up a late run by Monzon. Add this to the fact that he is returning to dirt, upon which he may be better than on turf, and I'm not afraid to pick him to win. Rush Now has proven to be a nice colt, but I'm concerned that he may duel himself into submission with Pants of Fire.
OTHER RACES OF NOTE
The Tropical Park Derby, a nine-furlong turf grade III stakes race to be run at Calder Race Course on January 1st, drew a field of thirteen horses for the 2011 renewal. However, the scratches of Ribo Bobo, Beachcombing, and Reprized Halo have left the field with ten runners.
The morning line favorite is Swift Warrior, a son of First Samuri out of Afleet Summer. The colt made nine starts as a juvenile, winning two while placing in six more. He is stakes-placed, having finished second to Ribo Bobo in the Foolish Pleasure Stakes, and most recently won a mile and one-sixteenth allowance race over the Calder turf course by almost seven lengths. This performance earned him my respect, and I am picking him to win today.
The second choice, Racing Aptitude, is a promising stakes winner. He won the Arthur I. Appleton Juvenile Turf Stakes last time out, rating just off the pace before wearing down the leaders in the stretch. A son of Aptitude, he should be able to get a perfect trip from gate five.
Another colt I really like is Private Prize, who broke his maiden last time out in a wire-to-wire effort. He may be able to control the pace today, which would greatly help his chances. However, this will be his first start on turf, which should make things very interesting.
Here are my picks. . .
1 Swift Warrior
2 Racing Aptitude
3 Private Prize
Also on today's Calder card is the Tropical Park Oaks, the fillies’ version of the Tropical Park Derby. I really don't have an opinion here, but I will be watching A Brilliant Idea, who is trained by Kelly Breen and will be ridden by J. Bravo. A daughter of Afleet Alex, I have always thought highly of her and her sixth-place finish in an allowance race last time out was better than it appeared.
Tomorrow's second race at Aqueduct also merits attention. The 1-2 morning line favorite is Crossbow, a son of Bernardini out of Forest Heiress who finished a decent third in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Aqueduct in his only start. He set a blazing pace of :21 2/5 and :44 2/5 that day, so if he gets an easier pace tomorrow he should win with ease.
Finally, at Golden Gate Fields, there is the California Oaks, a mile and one-sixteenth event that is to be run later this afternoon. It drew a field of five, but one scratch has reduced the field to four. The heavy morning line favorite is Cathy's Crunches, who has won five of her seven starts and has never finished worse than third. Last time out, she won the Corte Madera Stakes by a half-length, just getting up in time to catch Game to Run and Lilacs and Lace, who finished in a dead-heat for second. I expect a similar performance from her today, although I do believe that Lilacs and Lace, who is back for another try, will make a race out of it.
That's all for this weekend! Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
As today is Saturday, there are several good races carded across the country, including several stakes races for the new three-year-olds. Although none of them are graded, they could potentially impact the Triple Crown Trail in major ways.
This week's feature race shall be the Count Fleet Stakes, a $65,000 stakes races run over the inner dirt track at Aqueduct at a distance of one mile and seventy yards. It is restricted to three-year-olds of both genders.
FEATURE RACE: THE COUNT FLEET STAKES
The Count Fleet Stakes drew a field of seven, but the scratch of Isn't He Perfect has left the field with only six runners. They are. . .
#/Horse/Morning Line Odds
1 Pants On Fire (5-2)
2 J J's Lucky Train (7-2)
3 Tap Star (10-1)
4 Rush Now (3-1)
5 Arthur's Tale (4-1)
6 Isn't He Perfect (Scratched)
7 Monzon (10-1)
The morning line favorite is Pants On Fire, who drew the rail. A son of Jump Start out of Cabo de Noche, he lost two maiden special weight races before coming through with a dominating performance going a mile at Delaware Park. Sent off as the favorite in the maiden special weight event, he quickly took the lead and drew off easily to win by seven lengths.
His next—and most recent—start came in an allowance optional claiming event going a mile and seventy yards over the Aqueduct inner track. Sent off as the third choice, he took the lead from the outset despite stumbling at the start and led all the way into the stretch before grudgingly giving way to Rescind the Trade. He ended up second, beaten a neck; 5 1/4 lengths in front of the third place finisher. The performance was excellent; one which definitely earns him the status as favorite today. Trained by Kelly Breen, he will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez.
The second choice is Rush Now, a son of Tiznow out of Dirty Rush. To be ridden by Jeremy Rose, he is to carry 122 pounds, six more than Pants On Fire. He is already a proven stakes winner, having won the Dover Stakes on October 9th in impressive fashion. Sent off as the third choice that day, he was sent straight to the lead and turned back the bid of Chipshot to score by just under four lengths. However, when tried against tougher company in the grade III, $1,000,000 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes, he finished a dismal seventh, beaten eighteen lengths after failing to get to the lead. The drop in class today should help his chances greatly, although he will still have to outduel Pants On Fire if he wants victory. He is trained by Anthony Dutrow.
This brings us to J J's Lucky Train, the third choice. Trained by William Anderson, the son of Silver Train out of the Thunder Gulch mare Delta Sensation broke his maiden in sharp fashion first time out. Sent off at nearly 8-1 in a maiden claiming event at Monmouth Park, he rated just off the pace before making a bold bid to win the 5-1/2 furlong event by 2 1/2 lengths.
This strong victory warranted a start in the grade III Sapling Stakes, also at Monmouth Park. Sent off at 37-1, he ended up sixth, beaten six lengths after failing to menace. This performance, lackluster as it was, raised his odds in his next start, a six-furlong starter allowance race at Monmouth Park. Sent off at 2-1, he made his odds seem like a bargain as he powered past the leader turning for home to draw off and win by nearly six lengths, stopping the clock in a sharp 1:10 3/5.
Amazingly, this impressive run was not enough to earn him the status of favorite in his most recent start, a one mile and seventy yards allowance race at Parx Racing. Sent off as the third choice, he went straight to the lead and held off all challengers en route to a 2 1/4 length victory. He seems to be the kind of colt who just keeps improving, and he looks like a legitimate contender here today, where he will carry 120 pounds and be ridden by Jose Ferrer.
Arthur's Tale is the fourth choice on the morning line, and he drew gate five. The son of Bernardini out of Owsley has made four starts thus far, all of them in maiden special weights at a variety of tracks. In the most recent of these races, a one-mile event on the inner track at Aqueduct, he secured his first victory by out gaming Dance City inside the eighth pole to win by two lengths despite being carried wide on the first turn. Trained by Thomas Albertrani, he is to carry 116 pounds this afternoon and be ridden by Eddie Castro.
Tap Star and Monzon are the longshots, both at 10-1. The former, a son of Tapit out of E T Phone Laura, has made five starts in maiden special weight company, winning the most recent in a very sharp performance. Set to carry 116 pounds, he will be ridden by Stewart Elliot and is trained by John Servis, the same jockey/trainer combination that brought Smarty Jones to victory in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes back in six years ago. Although this will be Tap Star's first start in a route race, I believe that he is ready for a monster performance.
As for Monzon, he broke his maiden back in August at Laurel Park going a mile, winning by nearly thirteen lengths. He followed up this effort by winning a one-mile turf allowance race by over five lengths. He has run in two stakes races since then, finishing fifth in the Bourbon Stakes (gr. III) on the turf at Keeneland and third in the Gnome's Gold Stakes on the inner turf at Belmont Park. It is entirely possible that returning to dirt could be the key to a top performance. If so, he should run great today under 118 pounds. He is trained by Ignacio Correas IV and will be ridden by Edgar Prado.
It is a difficult race to handicap, but here's what I came up with. . .
1 Monzon
2 Rush Now
3 Tap Star
4 Pants On Fire
5 Arthur's Tale
6 J J's Lucky Train
I know it is a bit of a longshot, but I do believe that there is enough pace in here to set up a late run by Monzon. Add this to the fact that he is returning to dirt, upon which he may be better than on turf, and I'm not afraid to pick him to win. Rush Now has proven to be a nice colt, but I'm concerned that he may duel himself into submission with Pants of Fire.
OTHER RACES OF NOTE
The Tropical Park Derby, a nine-furlong turf grade III stakes race to be run at Calder Race Course on January 1st, drew a field of thirteen horses for the 2011 renewal. However, the scratches of Ribo Bobo, Beachcombing, and Reprized Halo have left the field with ten runners.
The morning line favorite is Swift Warrior, a son of First Samuri out of Afleet Summer. The colt made nine starts as a juvenile, winning two while placing in six more. He is stakes-placed, having finished second to Ribo Bobo in the Foolish Pleasure Stakes, and most recently won a mile and one-sixteenth allowance race over the Calder turf course by almost seven lengths. This performance earned him my respect, and I am picking him to win today.
The second choice, Racing Aptitude, is a promising stakes winner. He won the Arthur I. Appleton Juvenile Turf Stakes last time out, rating just off the pace before wearing down the leaders in the stretch. A son of Aptitude, he should be able to get a perfect trip from gate five.
Another colt I really like is Private Prize, who broke his maiden last time out in a wire-to-wire effort. He may be able to control the pace today, which would greatly help his chances. However, this will be his first start on turf, which should make things very interesting.
Here are my picks. . .
1 Swift Warrior
2 Racing Aptitude
3 Private Prize
Also on today's Calder card is the Tropical Park Oaks, the fillies’ version of the Tropical Park Derby. I really don't have an opinion here, but I will be watching A Brilliant Idea, who is trained by Kelly Breen and will be ridden by J. Bravo. A daughter of Afleet Alex, I have always thought highly of her and her sixth-place finish in an allowance race last time out was better than it appeared.
Tomorrow's second race at Aqueduct also merits attention. The 1-2 morning line favorite is Crossbow, a son of Bernardini out of Forest Heiress who finished a decent third in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Aqueduct in his only start. He set a blazing pace of :21 2/5 and :44 2/5 that day, so if he gets an easier pace tomorrow he should win with ease.
Finally, at Golden Gate Fields, there is the California Oaks, a mile and one-sixteenth event that is to be run later this afternoon. It drew a field of five, but one scratch has reduced the field to four. The heavy morning line favorite is Cathy's Crunches, who has won five of her seven starts and has never finished worse than third. Last time out, she won the Corte Madera Stakes by a half-length, just getting up in time to catch Game to Run and Lilacs and Lace, who finished in a dead-heat for second. I expect a similar performance from her today, although I do believe that Lilacs and Lace, who is back for another try, will make a race out of it.
That's all for this weekend! Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
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