BREEDERS' CUP COUNTDOWN ---- June 12

The Triple Crown may be over, but march to the Breeders' Cup has begun. Today is the day of the Stephen Foster Handicap.

The grade I, $600,000 race has been won by some very good horses, such as Curlin and Victory Gallop. But I must admit that this year's running is one of the toughest I have ever seen.

Eleven horses have turned out for the mile and an eighth race, and you can tell how tough the field is when a nice horse like Arson Squad is 8-1 on the morning line.

Speaking of the morning line, the favorite is 5-2 Battle Plan, which surprises me to some extent, as I figured that Blame would be the heavy favorite. But anyway. . .

Battle Plan has won four of his five starts, with his only bad finish coming in his maiden race, where he ran eighth. He then broke his maiden impressively by nearly eight lengths at Gulfstream Park in January 2009. He was then given a year off and has returned very well, winning two allowance races. Stepped up to stakes company, he destroyed a classy field of ten in the grade II New Orleans Handicap which included General Quarters, Awesome Gem, Star Guitar, Giant Oak, and Hold Me Back. He could very well extend his winning streak to five today.

Then there is Blame. The 3-1 second choice, he is riding a three race winning streak, with wins in the Fayette Stakes, Clark Handicap, and the William Donald Schaefer Stakes. In the Clark, he dualed with and defeated eventual Santa Anita Handicap winner Misremembered, and the Clark was run here at Churchill Downs. So he is without a doubt a major contender and may end up being one of the favorites for the Breeders' Cup Classic later this year.

Duke of Mischief, 6-1 on the morning line, is another solid contender. The four year old colt comes off of an impressive win in the grade II Oaklawn Handicap in early April, and defeated some nice horses in that race. Prior to that, he had finished eighth in the Donn Handicap, beaten twenty lengths by Quality Road, and had won the rained off the turf grade II Fort Lauderdale Stakes. His running style, sitting just off the lead, could help him here, but he needs a slower pace than the one he chased in the Donn to win.

Arson Squad, General Quarters, and Macho Again are other top contenders. Arson Squad comes into the race off of a sharp win in the grade III Alysheba Stakes at this track, and General Quarters is a two time grade I winner, although his best races have come on turf and synthetic tracks. Macho Again won this race last year, but has turned in three poor efforts since then. But he seems to be coming into this race the right way and could come flying late if the pace is quick.

No Advantage is interesting as well. Although he is 30-1 on the morning line, he comes into the race off of a second place finish to Blame, beaten a length and a half, in the William Donald Schaefer Stakes. With Calvin Borel in the saddle, he could pull a surprising upset.

So here are my picks. . .

1 Blame
2 Battle Plan
3 Arson Squad
4 Duke of Mischief
5 No Advantage
6 General Quarters
7 Macho Again
8 Giant Oak
9 Honest Man
10 Demarcation
11 A. U. Miner

It's going to be a close finish for sure, but I think that Blame will overcome the far outside post position and win by a half length or so. Battle Plan has been running very well and will be tough to catch, and Arson Squad could very well come running late. Duke of Mischief and No Advantage are also in with big chances, but I don't believe that General Quarters is going to get it done. His best running has come on turf and synthetic, so I can see him being in the mix but not quite getting there.

I'm leaving Macho Again out of the top spots because I can't see him getting the pace he needs.

I'll be back shortly with more. . .

-Keelerman