Tomorrow is the day of the Belmont Stakes. It has drawn—without a doubt—the most solid field I can remember. But sadly, it is the final leg of the Triple Crown. No more classics until next year. . .
But on the other hand, there is just about no way that this Triple Crown can end on a bad note, as the field is terrific and the horses should put on good show. And also, once the Triple Crown is over, we can start thinking about the Breeders' Cup, the current crop of two year olds, and an idea that I came up with a few months ago that I think would be fun. . .
But we won't discuss those right now. The Belmont Stakes is the most important race for the moment so let's take a look at who's running.
1. Dave in Dixie
Birthdate - March
Sire - Dixie Union (By Dixieland Band)
Dam - Risk (By Wavering Monarch)
Owner - Ike & Dawn Thrash
Trainer - John Sadler
Jockey - Calvin Borel
Last Race --- Illinois Derby, finished 5th
Pros --- He has shown that he can rally strongly from far back, and he has been running against some solid company.
Cons --- His worst race came on dirt, he has shown his best for only on synthetics, he is a bit inconsistent, he has not had a workout at Belmont, and his jockey doesn't know the track very well.
Pedigree --- It should take him a mile and a half.
2. Spangled Star
Birthdate - April
Sire - Distorted Humor (By Forty Niner)
Dam - Spangled (By Kris S)
Owner - Lawrence P Roman & Jeff Levine
Trainer - Richard Dutrow
Jockey - Garrett Gomez
Last Race --- Withers Stakes, finished 3rd
Pros --- He has been improving with every start and has shown a little bit of early speed. With a bit of luck, he could find himself in the perfect stalking position.
Cons --- He has not had a workout at Belmont, and he would have to show some great improvement to contend here. He has never raced beyond a mile and a sixteenth.
Pedigree --- I'm not sure what to think. His sire is questionable for siring a distance horse, but Spangled Star's pedigree is loaded with stamina elsewhere. I think that he will get the distance.
3. Uptowncharlybrown
Birthdate - February
Sire - Limehouse (By Grand Slam)
Dam - La Iluminada (By Langfuhr)
Owner - Fantasy Lane Stables
Trainer - Kiaran McLaughlin
Jockey - Rajiv Maragh
Last Race --- Lexington Stakes, finished 3rd
Pros --- He has shown to be versatile, racing close to the pace and far off of it. He has good form on both dirt and synthetics, and his trainer has won the Belmont Stakes before. He has recorded four workouts over this track and his been here since early May.
Cons --- Has been just a bit inconsistent and I do wonder if he can go a mile and a half.
Pedigree --- Despite the fact that I am worried about his ability to get a mile and a half, his pedigree says that he should be able to do it.
4. Make Music for Me
Birthdate - March 4th
Sire - Bernstein (By Storm Cat)
Dam - Miss Cheers (By Carson City)
Owner - Ellen and Peter O Johnson
Trainer - Alexis Barba
Jockey - Joel Rosario
Last Race - Kentucky Derby, finished 4th
Pros - He ran a tremendous race in the Kentucky Derby, coming from last to finish fourth. He has had two workouts at Belmont and could be sitting on a huge race. He has shown the ability to come from just off the lead and from way back.
Cons - His jockey has never ridden at Belmont before, and he may not be able to go a mile and a half.
Pedigree --- It should be able to carry him a mile and a half, but until he does it I can't be sure.
5. Fly Down
Birthdate - April
Sire - Minehshaft (By A.P. Indy)
Dam - Queen Randi (By Fly So Free)
Owner - Richard Pell
Trainer - Nick Zito
Jockey - John Velazquez
Last Race - Dwyer Stakes, finished 1st
Pros - He is the only runner in the race to have won over this track, he was very impressive in his last race, and his Louisiana Derby run was not as bad as it looked. His trainer has won the Belmont twice already.
Cons - His pedigree is perhaps just a little shy of stamina, and the wind at Belmont on Dwyer day did cause a bias in his favor.
Pedigree --- It should be able to carry him a mile and a half, but until he does it I can't be sure.
6. Ice Box
Birthdate - March 29th
Sire - Pulpit (By A.P. Indy)
Dam - Spice Island (By Tabasco Cat)
Owner - Robert V. LaPenta
Trainer - Nick Zito
Jockey - Jose Lezcano
Last Race --- Kentucky Derby, finished 2nd
Pros --- He has been running extremely well as of late, and might have won the Kentucky Derby if he had gotten a slightly better trip. His pedigree should take him a mile and a half and beyond. His trainer has won the Belmont Stakes twice already. He has drawn a terrific post position.
Cons --- He had the perfect pace scenario in the Derby and may not get it here. His style of coming from way back doesn't suit the Belmont Stakes, but he has shown the ability to sit just off the lead.
Pedigree --- It will get him a mile and a half.
7. Drosselmeyer
Birthdate - April
Sire - Distorted Humor (By Forty Niner)
Dam - Golden Ballet (By Moscow Ballet)
Owner - WinStar Farm
Trainer - William Mott
Jockey - Mike Smith
Last Race --- Dwyer Stakes, finished 2nd
Pros --- He appears to have great stamina and can just keep on grinding. If he has the lead turning for home, it may be impossible to catch him. He has yet to win a stakes race, but he just keeps finishing well and this could be his big day.
Cons --- He has shown very little turn of foot and just hasn't been able to finish off his run. He reminds me to some extent of Dublin. Also, he has had some frog issues over the past couple of days which could hurt his chances.
Pedigree --- His pedigree doesn't scream a mile and a half, but the way he runs says that he should get the distance.
8. Game On Dude
Birthdate - April
Sire - Awesome Again (By Deputy Minister)
Dam - Wordly Pleasure (By Devil His Due)
Owner - Bernard Schiappa Lanni Family Trust
Trainer - Bob Baffert
Jockey - Martin Garcia
Last Race --- Lone Star Derby, finished 1st
Pros --- He finally broke through with an impressive win in his last race, and he is one of the few horses in this race who have shown the ability to sit near a fast pace.
Cons --- His rider has never ridden at Belmont Park before, he has been training out at Santa Anita, and I question his ability to get the distance.
Pedigree --- I'm not sure what to think. It might carry him the distance and it might not.
9. Stately Victor
Birthdate - May 1st
Sire - Ghostzapper (By Awesome Again)
Dam - Collect the Cash (By Dynaformer)
Owner - Thomas Conway & Jack Conway
Trainer - Michael Maker
Jockey - Alan Garcia
Last Race - Kentucky Derby, finished 8th
Pros --- He ran a sneaky good race in the Kentucky Derby and has had five weeks rest. He has been training very well and looks ready to run a huge race. His jockey won the 2008 Belmont Stakes.
Cons --- He is really unproven beyond a mile and an eighth and has been a bit inconsistent.
Pedigree --- His pedigree screams a mile and a half, but I'm just not sure if he can actually get it.
10. Stay Put
Birthdate - March
Sire - Broken Vow (By Unbridled)
Dam - O. K. Mom (By Dixieland Blue)
Owner - Richard Klein, Bertram Klein, and W Klein
Trainer - Steve Margolis
Jockey - J. Theriot II
Last Race - Allowance Optional Claiming race, finished 1st
Pros --- He ran two very solid races in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby earlier this year, and with any pace at all he should come flying. He looks ready to run a huge race and has been screaming for distance.
Cons --- His speed figures have not been very high and his jockey is not familiar with this track. He may just not be as good as some of the other horses in the race.
Pedigree --- His pedigree says he can get the distance and so does the way he runs.
11. First Dude
Birthdate - March
Sire - Stephen Got Even (By A.P. Indy)
Dam - Run Sarah Run (By Smart Strike)
Owner - Donald R Dizney
Trainer - Dale Romans
Jockey - Ramon Dominguez
Last Race - Preakness Stakes, finished 2nd
Pros - His jockey knows Belmont Park really well, he ran a tremendously impressive race in the Preakness, and he is one of the few horses here with sharp early speed.
Cons - He has drawn a poor post position, and he still only has a maiden win from seven starts. I do question his ability to go a mile and a half.
Pedigree - It says mile and a half all over the place, but I'm just not sure if he can get the distance.
12. Interactif
Birthdate - February
Sire - Broken Vow (By Unbridled)
Dam - Broad Pennant (By Broad Brush)
Owner - Wertheimer EtFrere
Trainer - Todd Pletcher
Jockey - Javierr Castellano
Last Race - Blue Grass Stakes, finished 4th
Pros - He has always run consistently, he should be fresh, and he has shown a good late kick at times. But when he doesn't come late, it's typically because he is near the lead chasing good fractions. Either style could end up working here.
Cons - He has drawn a terrible post position, he seems to be best on turf and synthetics, his worse race came on dirt, his speed figures haven't been very high, and he may just not be good enough.
Pedigree - He will get a mile and a half. I think.
So there are my thoughts on each horse. I have been going back and forth for the past few days now, trying to decide who my picks are. I'm still not really sure who is going to win, but I've done my best and I can do no more than that.
But before I get into my picks, I'm going to run through my now traditional random picks and speed figures picks and see what I come up with there.
RANDOM PICKS
1 Stately Victor
2 Uptowncharlybrown
3 First Dude
4 Make Music for Me
5 Interactif
6 Drosselmeyer
7 Stay Put
8 Dave in Dixie
9 Fly Down
10 Ice Box
11 Star Spangled
12 Game On Dude
Hmm. . . once again, my Random Picks seems to want to hit a monster superfecta. Very daring of it to leave Fly Down and Ice Box out of the top four.
Now it's time for my "Highest Beyer Speed Figure in Last Race" picks. You can guess how these picks are deduced by the name. . .
HIGHEST BEYER SPEED FIGURE IN LAST RACE PICKS
1 First Dude
2 Ice Box
3 Fly Down
4 Make Music for Me
5 Game On Dude
6 Uptowncharlybrown (DH)
6 Stately Victor (DH)
8 Stay Put
9 Drosselmeyer
10 Spangled Star
11 Interactif
12 Dave in Dixie
Very interesting. The four likely favorites in the top four spots. It's highly possible that the race could turn out this way. Although I doubt that there will be a dead-heat, I did see one the other day at Lone Star Park. . .
Now here are my "Average Beyer Speed Figure" picks, where I average out the runners speed figures and the horse with the highest average tops the list, and the horse with the lowest average finishing last.
AVERAGE BEYER SPEED FIGURE PICKS
1 Uptowncharlybrown
2 Dave in Dixie
3 Drosselmeyer
4 Fly Down
5 First Dude
6 Game On Dude
7 Interactif
8 Stay Put
9 Make Music for Me
10 Stately Victor
11 Ice Box
12 Spangled Star
I find it rather fascinating that Uptowncharlybrown leads the list, with Dave in Dixie second. Of course, Ice Box is not going to run eleventh, but this list could be right in some cases.
And now the real analyzing begins.
Before I post my picks, let me mention a couple of things that have influenced my handicapping.
#1 is the fact that horses who run in the Derby and skip the Preakness typically run well in the Belmont Stakes. In 2003, Empire Maker ran second in the Derby, skipped the Preakness, and won the Belmont. In 2004, Birdstone ran seventh in the Derby, skipped the Preakness, and won the Belmont. In 2005, Adromeda's Hero ran eighth in the Derby, skipped the Preakness, and ran second in the Belmont. In 2006, Jazil ran fourth in the Derby, skipped the Preakness, and won the Belmont. In 2007, Tiago ran seventh in the Derby, skipped the Preakness, and finished third in the Belmont. Also in 2007, Rags to Riches won the Kentucky Oaks, skipped the Preakness and won the Belmont. In 2008, Denis of Cork ran third in the Derby, skipped the Preakness, and finished second in the Belmont. In 2009, Summer Bird ran sixth in the Derby, skipped the Preakness, and won the Belmont.
So this means that Make Music for Me, Ice Box, or Stately Victor will hit the board in the Belmont Stakes. Maybe they will fill out the trifecta!
Another interesting fact is that longshots often do well in the Belmont. Ahem. . .
In 2002, Sarava won the Belmont Stakes at odds of 70-1. Medaglia d'Oro finished second at odds of 16-1.
In 2004, Birdstone won the Belmont Stakes at odds of 36-1 Royal Assault finished third at 28-1.
In 2005, Adromeda's Hero ran second in the Belmont at odds of 12-1. Nolan's Cat ran third at 20-1.
In 2008, Da' Tara won the Belmont Stakes at odds of 38-1. In addition, Anak Nakal at 34-1 dead-heated with Ready's Echo at 29-1 for third.
And finally, in 2009, Summer Bird won the Belmont Stakes at odds of 11-1.
Of course, in 2002, 2004, and 2008, the high odds were due to some extent to the fact that a horse was going for the Triple Crown that year. In 2005 and 2009 there were heavy favorites drawing all of the money.
So with all that said, it's time to make my picks.
After I mention a couple of things about the possible early pace.
When you first glance at the entries, you don't see a lot of speed. Yet, in my opinion, I think that the opening half mile could go in slightly under :48 seconds flat. Perhaps :47 4/5, or :47 3/5. The reason I think this is the fact that First Dude, Game On Dude, Spangled Star, Interactif, Drosselmeyer, Make Music for Me, and Uptowncharlybrown have all shown ability to race close to the lead. Come to think of it, even Ice Box has been up close early. But all it would take is First Dude, Game On Dude, and Spangled Star battling for the lead to end up with a hot pace.
So I'm going to handicap anticipating a slightly faster pace than most people will.
Here are my Official Picks. . .
OFFICIAL PICKS
1 Ice Box
2 Uptowncharlybrown
3 Make Music for Me
4 Fly Down
5 First Dude
6 Stately Victor
7 Stay Put
8 Drosselmeyer
9 Interactif
10 Game On Dude
11 Dave in Dixie
12 Spangled Star
Typically, the Kentucky Derby is the hardest race to handicap out of the three Triple Crown races, but this year I must admit the Belmont has topped it.
To begin the nightmare, I couldn't toss anyone. I looked at every runner in the race and said to myself, "Anyone can win!" But I finally decided to go with Ice Box. He looks like the best horse here.
I know I am taking a shot with Uptowncharlybrown, but I have loved this colt since the Pasco Stakes and would love to see him win. His pedigree doesn't say a mile and a half anywhere, but I just have this feeling that he could surprise a lot of people by running well.
As for Make Music for Me, he really impressed me in the Kentucky Derby, rallying from last to finish second. He has been training well and I think that he can lay closer to the pace and lead at the top of the stretch.
I can see Fly Down winning, but I just don't think so. I don't think that the Dwyer was quite as good as it looked. But then again, it was a win at Belmont and that always helps.
I'm leaving First Dude out of the top four at my own risk. I think that the Preakness took too much out of him and that he will fade in the final eighth of a mile.
Stately Victor looks like he could run all day, but I don't know if he is good enough on dirt. Spangled Star has a huge shot, but I'm can't include everyone. Stay Put needs a solid pace to chase, as does Dave in Dixie. Drosselmeyer was one of my top picks until his frog issues arose, and now I'm afraid that he won't run his best race. I believe that Interactif has too much to overcome from gate twelve, and that Game On Dude just plain isn't good enough.
And now here are my "Gut Feelings" picks, where I go with what my gut tells me will happen.
1 Uptowncharlybrown
2 Fly Down
3 Make Music for Me
4 Ice Box
5 Stately Victor
6 First Dude
7 Spangled Star
8 Dave in Dixie
9 Game On Dude
10 Interactif
11 Drosselmeyer
12 Stay Put
My gut feeling is that Uptowncharlybrown will win by about a length and a half. I'm not sure why. I just have this feeling. I also have a feeling that this race will not set up well for Ice Box and he will do what Mine That Bird did last year. Come too early on the turns of doom at Belmont Park.
Now, to conclude this post, I am going to post one last pick. Here's the story:
I have a buddy. On this blog, he will be known as J. R. He enjoys picking longshots to win and as I was handicapping this race, he came forth with his superfecta.
"Ice Box to win?" he said. "I don't think so. This race won't set up for him. He'll end up fourth or something."
"Well," I said. "Who do you think will win?"
"Spangled Star without a doubt."
I laughed. He couldn't possibly be serious.
"I'm serious."
I stopped laughing.
He pulled a battered sheet of paper out of his pocket, covered with possible fractions, past perfomances, and his own notes. "Here's my superfecta --- Spangled Star, Uptowncharlybrown, Make Music for Me, and Ice Box."
I was shocked, but then again, that's his style of handicapping. Find the longshot who can hit the board and build a superfecta around him. And I guess I can see why he likes Spangled Star, because even I like him a little bit.
So here are J. R's picks. . .
J. R.'s PICKS
1 Spangled Star
2 Uptowncharlybrown
3 Make Music for Me
4 Ice Box
5 Game On Dude
6 Fly Down
7 Dave in Dixie
8 Stately Victor
9 Stay Put
10 First Dude
11 Interactif
12 Drosselmeyer
So it's a contest now --- will I outpick J. R., or will J. R. outpick me? We'll find out tomorrow.
And I guess that's it for now. I'll be back tomorrow with thoughts on the undercard races, as well as a recap of what has happened over the last week. And I'll even try and get J. R. to name a choice for the Acorn. . .
Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
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