NOTICE: Although I don't want to say this, today's post is the final "Triple Crown Countdown" of 2010. But don't worry, I intend to switch over to "Breeders' Cup Countdowns" in couple of days. The blog will remain "Keelerman's Triple Crown Countdown" and I will follow the two year olds of 2010 all the way to the 2011 Triple Crown, but I just thought I would mention that we will be focusing more on the Breeders' Cup from here on. So anyway. . .
BELMONT STAKES RECAP
It was to be the battle of the runner ups. There was the chestnut Ice Box, a brilliant stretch runner whose late runs had earned him a grade I win in the Florida Derby and a second place finish in the Kentucky Derby. He was bred to run a mile and a half and looked ready to give trainer Nick Zito his third win in the Belmont Stakes.
Then there was First Dude. The bay colt had not run in the Kentucky Derby due to insufficient graded earnings, but had turned in a monster performance to finish second in the Preakness Stakes to the champion two year old Lookin at Lucky. In that race, he set blazing fractions and was only beaten by three quarters of a length. With his extremely long stride and his incredible pedigree, he looked ready to go wire-to-wire in the Test of Champions.
However, it was fact that both of them could not run their best races. If First Dude set the slow pace that he needed, Ice Box would not be able to close any ground. If First Dude set the pace that Ice Box needed, he would tire. It was fairly obvious to everyone that the pace would make the race.
In reality, none of it mattered.
The start was good for all except Stay Put, who broke in the air. As expected, First Dude raced right to the lead, but Interactif on the far outside decide to challenge him early. Uptowncharlybrown was also right in the mix, as was Game On Dude, Drosselmeyer, and Fly Down.
It looked like the pace would be a quick one. Then I saw the first quarter mile of :24 flat and I realized that they were going to crawl all the way around.
This was not good for Ice Box, who was sitting ninth, eight lengths off the lead.
So into the huge Belmont first turn they went, First Dude leading the way by a length, with Interactif tracking him in second. Game On Dude had moved just a bit closer to be third, and Uptowncharlybrown was fourth.
Interestingly, Mike Smith, riding Drosselmeyer, was keeping his mount in the clear on the outside. At the time I didn't think about it, but I soon would.
Through a half in :49 flat and three quarters in 1:14 4/5, the positions remained pretty much unchanged. Ice Box was creeping a bit closer, as were Stately Victor, Stay Put, and Make Music for Me, but in the end no closer would come close.
After a mile in a tedious 1:40 1/5, First Dude still had the lead. He has gotten the pace he needed. Only one question remained --- how good was he? Was he a super horse who would prove his greatness in the longest of the Triple Crown races? Or would he fail like so many other three year olds who chose to run in the Test of Champions? That question would be answered in the final half mile.
Interactif and Game On Dude still stuck with him stubbornly. Drosselmeyer was still five wide on the turns of doom, and Uptowncharlybrown was still in with a chance. Fly Down was right there in sixth, just three and a half lengths off the lead, and Ice Box was only five lengths behind First Dude.
The battle began.
After running a mile and a quarter in 2:04 4/5, there was only a quarter of a mile to run. Interactif was retreating, but Game On Dude and Drosselmeyer were both moving into contention. Fly Down was desperately looking for racing room, and Ice Box was. . . tiring!
Down the stretch they came, First Dude, Drosselmeyer, and Game On Dude. Uptowncharlybrown was running his heart out on the rail, and Fly Down was moving to the outside.
Game On Dude flattened out. . . Fly Down was coming with a rush. . . and despite setting pedestrian fractions, First Dude was tiring as well!
The crowd cheered. Dale Romans, trainer of First Dude, William Mott, trainer of Drosselmeyer, and Nick Zito all saw visions of a Belmont victory. But in the end, Mike Smith got Drosselmeyer home on top by three quarters of a length, running the mile and a half in 2:31 2/5.
Fly Down rallied strongly for second, meaning that Nick Zito had hit the board in all three Triple Crown races with three different horses. It's probably a first.
But what mattered most was that Mike Smith had finally won the Belmont Stakes, a race that had eluded him for over twenty years. And William Mott finally won a Triple Crown race. The youngest trainer ever to be inducted into the Hall of Fame, the trainer of the great Cigar and many other good horses, finally broke through with a win in the Belmont Stakes.
Game On Dude finished fourth after running a tremendous race, much better than I thought he would. Uptowncharlybrown ran a gutsy race to finish fifth, but was disqualified when it was discovered that his eight pound lead weight had slipped off his saddle at the seven eighths pole. He was placed last. His trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin, took the blame for incident, and said that he was glad Uptowncharlybrown hadn't finished first.
So here is the complete order of finish (with Uptowncharlybrown in fifth place). . .
1 Drosselmeyer
2 Fly Down
3 First Dude
4 Game On Dude
5 Uptowncharlybrown
6 Stay Put
7 Interactif
8 Stately Victor
9 Ice Box
10 Make Music for Me
11 Dave in Dixie
12 Spangled Star
. . . and here were my "Official Picks. . .
1 Ice Box
2 Uptowncharlybrown
3 Make Music for Me
4 Fly Down
5 First Dude
6 Stately Victor
7 Stay Put
8 Drosselmeyer
9 Interactif
10 Game On Dude
11 Dave in Dixie
12 Spangled Star
. . . my "Gut Feeling" picks. . .
1 Uptowncharlybrown
2 Fly Down
3 Make Music for Me
4 Ice Box
5 Stately Victor
6 First Dude
7 Spangled Star
8 Dave in Dixie
9 Game On Dude
10 Interactif
11 Drosselmeyer
12 Stay Put
. . . my "Highest Beyer Speed Figure In Last Race" picks. . .
1 First Dude
2 Ice Box
3 Fly Down
4 Make Music for Me
5 Game On Dude
6 Uptowncharlybrown (DH)
6 Stately Victor (DH)
8 Stay Put
9 Drosselmeyer
10 Spangled Star
11 Interactif
12 Dave in Dixie
. . . my "Average Beyer Speed Figure" picks. . .
1 Uptowncharlybrown
2 Dave in Dixie
3 Drosselmeyer
4 Fly Down
5 First Dude
6 Game On Dude
7 Interactif
8 Stay Put
9 Make Music for Me
10 Stately Victor
11 Ice Box
12 Spangled Star
. . . my "Random Picks". . .
1 Stately Victor
2 Uptowncharlybrown
3 First Dude
4 Make Music for Me
5 Interactif
6 Drosselmeyer
7 Stay Put
8 Dave in Dixie
9 Fly Down
10 Ice Box
11 Star Spangled
12 Game On Dude
. . . and "J. R.'s Picks". . .
1 Spangled Star
2 Uptowncharlybrown
3 Make Music for Me
4 Ice Box
5 Game On Dude
6 Fly Down
7 Dave in Dixie
8 Stately Victor
9 Stay Put
10 First Dude
11 Interactif
12 Drosselmeyer
Before I go into how badly I did, let me say a few things. . .
#1. Ice Box had absolutely no pace to chase, and he displaced his palate as well.
#2. Drosselmeyer was one of my top picks before I heard the news that he had frog problems. I had actually considered picking him to win, but would you pick a horse with foot problems?
Now I shall discuss how I did.
My "Official Picks" did better than my "Gut Feeling" picks. I accurately predicted where Spangled Star and Dave in Dixie would finish (but then again, I think everybody did!) and I was fairly close on several others. My "Gut Feeling" that Uptowncharlybrown would win didn't happen, but he did run fairly well.
My "Highest Beyer Speed Figure In Last Race" picks did not hit anything at all. The "Average Beyer Speed Figure" picks did much better, putting Spangled Star and Interactif in the right places, although it did pick Dave in Dixie to finish second. On the other hand, it picked Drosselmeyer to finish third. . .
The "Random Picks" actually didn't do too bad either. They had First Dude to finish third, and Ice Box to run tenth, so not all that bad.
And finally, J. R. did worst of all. He would have been closer if he had reversed his picks. He had Spangled Star to win and Drosselmeyer to run last. He had First Dude to finish tenth and Make Music for Me to finish third. Had he reversed his picks, they would have looked like this. . .
1 Drosselmeyer
2 Interactif
3 First Dude
4 Stay Put
5 Stately Victor
6 Dave in Dixie
7 Fly Down
8 Game On Dude
9 Ice Box
10 Make Music for Me
11 Uptowncharlybrown
12 Spangled Star
In that case, he would have had Drosselmeyer, First Dude, Ice Box, Make Music for Me, and Spangled Star in the right places. But in reality, he only had Stately Victor in the right place. So the winner of the Belmont Stakes Handicapping Contest is ME. But don't feel too badly for J. R. He predicted that Switch would upset Blind Luck and I think he might have picked Winchester in the Manhattan Handicap, so he did just fine.
TRIPLE CROWN CONCLUSION
It's been a great five months. When I started this blog, I had absolutely no idea how much fun I would have making my picks and discussing each race. I must admit that I have never enjoyed a Triple Crown more.
I wish I could come up with some dramatic way to end the Triple Crown season, but I can't. Instead, I shall mention a few of the most memorable moments from the Triple Crown which will stand out in my mind for years to come. In no particular order. . .
#1: Todd Pletcher wins the Kentucky Derby.
#2: Calvin Borel wins his third Derby in four years.
#3: Mike Smith wins his first Belmont Stakes to complete his personal Triple Crown.
#4: Lookin at Lucky finally gets lucky in the Preakness.
#5: William Mott wins his first Triple Crown race with Drosselmeyer.
#6: WinStar Farms wins the Derby and the Belmont with Super Saver and Drosselmeyer.
#7: Picking Super Saver as a top Derby contender in November.
#8: Eskendereya wins the Fountain of Youth and the Wood Memorial by daylight.
#9: Watching Blind Luck nail Evening Jewel on the wire in the Kentucky Oaks.
#10: Picking Buddy's Saint to win the Kentucky Derby in December and having him run in one race all spring.
#11: Uptowncharlybrown losing his lead weight in the Belmont.
#12: Seeing Lookin at Lucky re-rally in the Santa Anita Derby to finish third.
#13: Following Dublin all year and watching him lose every race. He will win another grade I someday. . .
I will remember these moments forever.
But this is not really the end. I'll be back tomorrow with my first "Breeders' Cup Countdown" and I shall discuss the Stephen Foster, the Fleur De Lis, and the Lost in the Fog Stakes. And remember, Zenyatta races for her 17th win in the Vanity Handicap on Sunday!
Thanks for all the fun!
-Keelerman
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