Saturday, June 19, 2010

BREEDERS' CUP COUNTDOWN ---- JUNE 18th, 2010

As I am writing this, I can't help but think about all the great racing action that has happened since I last posted. A certain mare breaks one of racing's oldest streaks, another mare continues to advance towards her third Breeders' Cup Mile, a four year old filly scores for the first time since September 2009, and the handicap male division found another serious Breeders' Cup contender when a brilliant four year old put in a tremendous late rally to score his first grade I.

On a sadder note, the 2007 Breeders' Cup Mile winner, Kip Deville, was euthanized last Friday after a long battle with laminitis. You will be missed, Kip.

RACE RECAPS

VANITY HANDICAP --- ALL HAIL THE QUEEN

On June 13th, history was made.

Zenyatta went 17-for-17, and broke one of the most revered streaks in racing.

During the year 1948, the great Citation was at his peak. Along with winning the Triple Crown, as well as the Pimlico Special in a walkover, the amazing colt managed to put together a fifteen race win streak. It was only a matter of time before he would extend it, and become the first race horse to earn a million dollars.

Unfortunately, problems arose.

Forced to skip the 1949 racing season due to osselets, the colt was never quite the same again. But was he retired? No. Even a Citation who couldn't run quite as well as he used to could still win big races. And there was the status of becoming racing's first millionaire to consider.

Returned to racing in 1950, Citation won an allowance race to extend his streak to sixteen. Although he was unable to win his next race, he still raced very well and finally broke the one million dollars mark by winning the Hollywood Gold Cup over stablemate Bewitch. He was then retired and went on to sire Preakness Stakes winner Fabius and Hall of Fame member Silver Spoon.

In 1990, Mister Frisky, a runner from Puerto Rico, came to California and won a pair of stakes races, capped by the Santa Anita Derby. The colt went into the Kentucky Derby as an unbeaten favorite, 16-for-16. After helping set a fast pace, he finished eighth behind Unbridled, Summer Squall, and Pleasant Tap. He never won again, although he did finish. . . third, I believe, in the Preakness.

In 1996, the great Cigar, coming off of a spectacular 10-for-10 Horse of the Year campaign the year prior, had his sights set on the record. Having won two races at the end of 1994 as well, he was actually sitting on a twelve race win streak. Could he keep it going long enough to break the record?

He got off to a good beginning, with a nice win in the Donn Handicap under 128 pounds. Shipped to Dubai, he won the Dubai World Cup over fellow American horses Soul of the Matter and L'Carriere.

Brought back to the United States, Cigar won the Massachusetts Handicap under 130 pounds. He then shipped to Arlington and won the Arlington Citation Challenge Invitational Stakes, a race specially created for Cigar to equal the record.

Cigar won by three and a half lengths.

The stage was set. The Pacific Classic would provide Cigar with the opportunity for his seventeenth consecutive victory. Once again, the winner romped by three and a half lengths. This time, however, Dare and Go was the winner, with Cigar finishing second.

Cigar went on to win the Woodward Stakes, finish second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup to Skip Away, and finish third, beaten a nose and a head, in the Breeders' Cup Classic, a race he had won in 1995.

And now there is Zenyatta. Unlike Citation and Cigar, she is undefeated. Her story is long, with many twists and turns, but it looks as though she has yet to reach the climax.

Here is Zenyatta's career to this point:

2007

Won Maiden Special Weight
Won Allowance

2008

Won El Encino (gr. II)
Won Apple Blossom Handicap (gr. I)
Won Milady Handicap (gr. II)
Won Vanity Handicap (gr. I)
Won Clement L. Hirsch Stakes (gr. I)
Won Lady's Secret Stakes (gr. I)
Won Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (gr. I)

2009

Won Milady Handicap (gr. II)
Won Vanity Handicap (gr. I)
Won Clement L. Hirsch Stakes (gr. I)
Won Lady's Secret Stakes (gr. I)
Won Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I)

2010

Won Santa Margarita Invitational Handicap (gr. I)
Won Apple Blossom Handicap (gr. I)
Won Vanity Handicap (gr. I)

And now here's what will probably happen in the future. . .

Won Clement L Hirsch Stakes (gr. I)
Won Zenyatta Stakes (gr. I)
Won Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I)

Can you imagine that? Ten consecutive grade I wins, twenty consecutive wins, two Breeders' Cup Classic wins, a Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic win, three consecutive wins in the Vanity, Clement L. Hirsch Stakes, and the Lady's Secret (which had been renamed the Zenyatta Stakes.) It would be the career of a champion and I personally feel it would make her as good as most colts. If she does this, I will say that she is better than Cigar. I would even put her over Affirmed, and maybe even Seattle Slew.

Now let's talk about exactly what happened in the Vanity Handicap. . .

Sent off at 1-2, Zenyatta was the favorite. But not the heavy favorite. St. Trinians, a fine mare who had won the Santa Marta Stakes and finished sixth as the favorite in the Santa Anita Handicap, was the 2-1 second choice. She would be carrying 120 pounds, nine less than Zenyatta, and had a huge chance at pulling the upset.

And then there was Zardana, the 7-1 third choice. Zenyatta's stablemate, she had already beaten Rachel Alexandra in the New Orleans Ladies' and was now planning to upset the other great mare. She would be carrying only 118 pounds, eleven less than Zenyatta.

But none of it would matter.

Away they went, and as usual, Zenyatta broke slowly and quickly dropped back to last as longshots Miss Silver Brook and Cherryblossommiss raced away to set the pace. They were followed by Zardana, with Will O Way in fourth. St. Trinians was fifth, two lengths in front of Zenyatta, who trailed the leaders by eleven and a half lengths.

After fractions of :24 flat and :47 2/5, Zenyatta and St. Trinians were inching closer, with St. Trinians moving up to be only a half length away from fourth place. Miss Silver Brook and Cherryblossommiss were still right together on the lead, four lengths clear of an eager Zardana.

Passing the three eighths pole, the leader was still Miss Silver Brook, with Cherryblossommiss in second, but Zardana and St. Trinians were cutting into their lead. Will O Way had dropped back to fifth, and Zenyatta was still last, six lengths off the lead.

Into the homestretch they came and Zardana moved up to take the lead. St. Trinians was coming in the five path, and Zenyatta was rallying on the extreme outside. Zardana was beginning to tire, leaving the two favorites to dual it out.

At the eighth pole it did not look good for the champion. She was third, two and a half lengths off the lead. And St. Trinians wasn't stopping.

Mike Smith went to the whip, asking Zenyatta for more. Like a champion, she found something extra, and got to within three quarters of a length of St. Trinians.

But St. Trinians was game. For a brief moment, it looked as though Zenyatta would lose for the first time in her career.

However, Zenyatta wasn't done yet.

With one final bid, Zenyatta drove past her rival to win by a half length, getting the mile and an eighth in 1:49 flat. It was six lengths back to Zardana in third, and another six and a quarter to Will O Way, who passed Miss Silver Brook abd Cherryblossommiss to finish fourth.

The win put Zenyatta over the six million dollar mark, and it was her third consecutive win in the Vanity, more than any other filly in history. What a historic race. And to think that I saw it. . .

CALIFORNIAN STAKES --- RAIL TRIP RULES

Zenyatta wasn't the only big name horse running at Hollywood Park last weekend. The brilliant gelding Rail Trip was there too.

The Californian Stakes, a major prep for next month's Hollywood Gold Cup, drew a fascinating field of eight. But only one would matter.

Sent off at 1-5, Rail Trip was fully expected to win impressively. Did he deliver? Yes.

In the early going, it was One Track Mind who led the way. Rail Trip, who has very good tactical speed, was content to sit second early, about a length behind the leader. He was followed by Slew's Tiznow and Tres Borrachos, with Sangaree, Cigar Man, Aitcho, and Spurrier all within seven lengths of the lead.

So through fractions of :24 1/5 and :47 4/5, the positions remained pretty much unchanged. The field was beginning to bunch up a bit, with less than six lengths separating first from last, but Rail Trip continued to sit in a perfect position between horses.

Following three quarters of a mile in 1:11 1/5, Rail Trip made his move. He quickly passed One Track Mind, who was beginning to fade, and opened up a clear lead while getting a mile in 1:35 3/5. Sangaree was making a sharp move to grab second position, but he was no match for Rail Trip, who drew off to win by three quarters of a length while being hand ridden to the finish. Sangaree held second over Slew's Tiznow, with Spurrier rallying from last to finish fourth. They were followed by Cigar Man, On Track Mind, Tres Borrachos, and Aitcho.

It's worth mentioning as well that Sangaree, despite being the second choice, was sent off at 11-1. That's what a heavy favorite Rail Trip was.

The final time was 1:48 2/5.

Now, there are a lot of cool things about Rail Trip, but one thing that I love is that he is a gelding. He will be hanging around for a while I'm sure, and seeing that he is being aimed to win his second Hollywood Gold Cup, he could very well turn out to be Lava Man's successor. Wouldn't that be great?

And who knows? Perhaps he will win three Hollywood Gold Cups and equal Lava Man and Native Diver's record. It's something to think about.

So here is the complete order of finish. . .

1 Rail Trip
2 Sangaree
3 Slew's Tiznow
4 Spurrier
5 Cigar Man
6 One Track Mind
7 Tres Borrachos
8 Aitcho

. . . and here were my picks.

1 Rail Trip
2 Sangaree
3 Slew's Tiznow
4 Tres Borrachos
5 Spurrier
6 Aitcho
7 Cigar Man
8 One Track Mind

I had the top three right, which was fun, but Tres Borrachos did not run as well as I thought he would. But it was a great race and I thoroughly enjoyed it.

STEPHEN FOSTER HANDICAP --- BLAME'S GAME

It's a tough game to win. Eleven played, and most of them were very good at it. There are three basic rules: run as fast as you can, take two left turns, and try to stay near the rail.

Blame followed the first two rules to perfection. But due to his drawing gate eleven, he failed to stay near the rail. Fortunately, that rule is optional, and Blame proved that he didn't need to follow it by winning while four wide through out.

The $600,000 Stephen Foster Handicap, a grade I race at Churchill Downs over a mile and an eighth on the dirt, has been one by many good horses. But Blame does have the potential to become better than any of them. And that's saying a lot, because Curlin won the 2008 running.

The race set up as anticipated, with favored Battle Plan racing away to set the early pace, followed closely by General Quarters and Honest Man. Duke of Mischief, the 6-1 fourth choice, was racing well on the inside, with Arson Squad and Blame together in fifth. As expected, Blame was caught four wide on the first turn.

Through steady fractions of :24 2/5, :48 3/5, and 1:12 3/5, the positions remained pretty much unchanged. I looked as though Battle Plan was getting a perfect trip and would not be caught.

But Blame had other ideas.

Less then three lengths behind with three eighths of a mile to go, Blame continued his four wide run and quickly passed four rivals. But in the homestretch, Battle Plan had opened up a four length lead and looked to be home clear. That was when Blame found another gear, pouring it on late.

Battle Plan's lead shrunk rapidly. And then it was Blame's lead. At odds of 4-1, Blame coasted home three quarters of a length in front, while getting the mile and an eighth in 1:49 1/5.

Battle Plan ran a gallant race to finish second, an effort which became even better when it was discovered that he had torn a suspensory ligament and had to be retired. It is very sad, for he had a lot of good races left in him, but hopefully he will live a long happy life in retirement.

General Quarters hung on well for third, which is much better than I thought he would run, and Giant Oak rallied for fourth at odds of 23-1.

So here are the complete results. . .

1 Blame
2 Battle Plan
3 General Quarters
4 Giant Oak
5 Demarcation
6 Arson Squad
7 A. U. Miner
8 Duke of Mischief
9 Honest Man
10 Macho Again
11 No Advantage

. . . and here were my picks.

1 Blame
2 Battle Plan
3 Arson Squad
4 Duke of Mischief
5 No Advantage
6 General Quarters
7 Macho Again
8 Giant Oak
9 Honest Man
10 Demarcation
11 A. U. Miner

So I had the top two finishers. Not bad. J. R. picked No Advantage to win, so he wasn't too happy, but it's hard to be sad when watching such a great race unfold.

It was exciting. And now Blame is a top contender for the Breeders' Cup Classic.

FLEUR DE LIS --- RETURN OF A CHAMPION

By the time the Fleur de Lis came around, all Rachel Alexandra fans were starting to get worried. The 2009 Horse of the Year had already lost two races this year and many (including myself) were beginning to wonder if she would ever return to her former self.

On June 12th, she proved that she is on her way back.

The $200,000 Fleur de Lis only drew five horses, and Rachel Alexandra merely toyed with them at odds of 1-10 as she drew off to score by ten and a half lengths.

Distinctive Dixie, at 18-1, finished second after racing close through out, while Jessica is Back finished third after setting the pace. Multipass never threatened in fourth, and Made for Magic finished fifth.

The final time was 1:48 3/5, meaning that Rachel Alexandra did run a full half-second faster than Blame did in the Stephen Foster. It's hard to say if she could have beaten Blame if she had run in the Stephen Foster, but she certainly would have been in the mix.

It is unknown where Rachel will go from here, but with the big Saratoga meet coming up soon, it is possible that she will race there. Perhaps in the Whitney Handicap against Quality Road, Blame, and Mine That Bird? We will see.

OTHER RACE RESULTS

OGDEN PHIPPS HANDICAP (gr. I)

1 Life At Ten
2 Unrivaled Belle
3 Funny Moon
4 Manitoba
5 Pumpkin Shell

Final time: 1:40 3/5

MONMOUTH STAKES (gr. III)

1 Get Serious
2 Roman Tiger
3 Dynamoor
4 Al Khali
5 Forgotten Dynasty
6 Baletti
7 Presious Passion
8 Blues Street
9 Pleasant Strike

Final time: 1:47 flat

NORTHERN DANCER STAKES (gr. III)

1 Colizeo
2 Worldly
3 Vow to Wager
4 Max Silverhammer
5 Prince Will I Am
6 Crider

Final time: 1:43 3/5

LOST IN THE FOG STAKES

1 Road Ready
2 King Cola
3 River's Chapel
4 Minutesandtouches
5 Ammunition
6 The Great Caper
7 Gone Rebel
8 Gangster of Love
9 Over the Budget

UPCOMING RACES

I won't discuss any of Saturday's races in detail right now, but I will be updating live with my picks and results tomorrow. It's going to be great fun!

-Keelerman

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