BREEDERS' CUP COUNTDOWN ---- July 3rd

Before I begin this post, let me apologize for not updating my blog to any great degree over the past two weeks. I have been extremely busy and was also out of town.

That said, let's take a look at all the terrific races being run this weekend. It's pretty safe to say that a major Breeders' Cup contender will come from one of these races. I'll begin by looking at the United Nations.

UNITED NATIONS ---- The horse to beat is. . .?

Has there ever been a tougher renewal of this race?

Okay, they don't exactly have Dr. Fager running like they did in 1968, but the 57th running of the United Nations has drawn a solid field of nine, headlined by grade I winners Telling, Acclamation, Winchester, Jeune-Turc, and Take the Points. Add the solid French runner Chinchon, classy stakes winner Laureate Conductor, grade I stakes-placed Straight Story, and the Monmouth loving Get Serious and you have a truly solid grade I race. And every horse has a shot, meaning there is no one horse to beat.
However, the excitement surrounding the race was greatly lessened when the name Presious Passion failed to show up in the entries. The seven year old gelding won the United Nations in 2009 and 2008, but is being given some time off after disappointing efforts in his last two starts.

But the nine runners who have been entered will do their best to fill in for him while he is away. Not only are they good horses, but they have swarmed from all over the world to run in the biggest race New Jersey has to offer, bar the Haskell. Telling has raced all over the United States, at Kentucky, New York, Illinois, Arkansas, and elsewhere. Get Serious has raced here in New Jersey before. Winchester has been to Florida. Jeune-Turc comes up from Brazil. Take the Points has been to Florida, Maryland, California, New York, Illinois, Virginia, and across the planet to Dubai. Chinchon, although an Ireland bred, has been racing mainly in France, while Laureate Conductor has been everywhere from Florida to Kentucky to New Jersey to Delaware. Together, they have made 162 starts, winning 42 times, finishing second 29 times, and third 22 times, for a grand total of 93 on the board finishes. This is going to be fun to watch.

Let's take a look at who is running now, beginning with the number one horse Telling.

Telling, a son of A.P. Indy, comes into the race off of a fifth place finish as the favorite in the grade III Louisville Handicap. In that race, he helped set a slow pace before tiring to be beaten six lengths by the winner, Free Fighter. However, his poor showing could be due to the fact that the turf was yielding, and it could be because the confirmed closer was changing his running style. He has not won since upsetting the grade I Sword Dancer at Saratoga last August, but just hasn't had the pace he needs to close. Perhaps he will get it today, as there is plenty of speed in this race. He will be ridden by E. Coa, whom I don't believe has ever ridden him before. He will be carrying 118 pounds, and is trained by Steve Hobby.

Then there is Get Serious, who has had by far the best success at this track. The son of City Zip has won eight of his ten starts here at Monmouth Park, most recently upsetting the nine furlong grade III Monmouth Stakes after leading most of the way. His pedigree suggests stamina limitations, and his trainer, John Forbes, is concerned about the distance, but perhaps he can take the lead and hang on. He will be ridden by P. Fragosa and will carry 118 pounds.

Acclamation is a colt that I really like and I feel he has a big chance here. The son of Unusual Heat has really blossomed in his last two races, winning both the grade I Charles Whittingham Handicap and the grade II Jim Murray in wire-to-wire fashion. In the latter, he was ten lengths in front after a half mile in :49 2/5 and ended up winning by seven and a half lengths, completing a mile and a half in 2:26 2/5 while running his final quarter mile in :23 2/5. In the Charles Whittingham, he set a faster pace before winning by a length and a half, getting the mile and a quarter in 1:59 2/5 while closing in :23 4/5. This horse is special, and if he can repeat those efforts today, I feel certain that he will win. He will be ridden by C. Santiago Reyes and will carry 123 pounds. He is trained by Donald Warren.

Straight Story is perhaps the unluckiest horse in the race. He has yet to win a stakes race, with his biggest win to date coming in a $78,000 allowance race, but the son of Giant's Causeway has finished second in four stakes races, including two grade II and one grade I. All of those losses have come by three quarters of a length or less, having lost both the Virginia Derby and Colonial Turf Cup by a head to Battle of Hastings, and the grade I Jamaica Handicap by a head to Take the Points. He has shown some good early speed, and comes off of a win at this track, so he could very well run huge today. He will carry 118 pounds and will be ridden by C. H. Marquez Jr. He is trained by Alan Goldberg.

This brings us to Winchester. The son of Theatrical has turned in some solid efforts in his sixteen race career, winning the grade I Secretariat Stakes in 2008 over fellow three year olds and finishing second in several graded stakes race, but he is best known right now for upsetting his champion stablemate Gio Ponti in the grade I Manhattan Handicap last time out. Arguably his best performance to date, he came home in under twenty-three seconds and will be dangerous if he repeats that performance. He will be ridden by C. Velasquez and will carry 123 pounds. He is trained by Christopher Clement.

And then there is Jeune-Turc, one of the more interesting horses in the field. The Brazilian-bred son of Know Heights has been racing in Brazil, where he is a multiple group I winner. In his last two starts, both in grade I company, he has finished fast closing seconds, and could benefit from the likely strong pace here today. He will carry 118 pounds and will be ridden by Jose Lezcano. He is trained by Paule Lobe.
Take the Points is another fascinating horse. The morning line favorite at 3-1, he is a multiple grade I winner, having won both the Secretariat Stakes and the Jamaica Handicap. The son of Even the Score also finished first in the grade I Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap back in February, but was placed fifth after interfering with another horse in the stretch. He then shipped to Dubai and finished a respectable fifth, beaten just over five and a quarter lengths, in the group I Dubai Duty Free. After a bit of a break, he returned to finish fourth in the grade I Manhattan Handicap, beaten just a length and a half by Winchester after having the lead at the eighth pole. He is without a doubt a major contender here and will carry 118 pounds. He will be ridden by Edgar Prado and is trained by Todd Pletcher.

Chinchon is the other foreign horse running here today. The son of Marju has run mostly in France, winning a couple grade IIIs and running respectably well in higher quality races. In his lone U.S. start, he finished fourth, beaten three lengths, in the grade I Man o' War to Gio Ponti after having a slightly rough trip. He has shown the ability to race close to the pace as well as come from behind, so he should be able to adapt to whatever pace scenario is thrown at him today. He will carry 118 pounds and will be ridden by Garret Gomez. He is trained by Carlos Laffon-Parias.

Finally, there is the longshot Laureate Conductor. The son of Bernstein has run well in allowance company and is a stakes winner, his only really bad performance coming in last year's Kent Stakes, where he finished fifth, beaten eight and a quarter lengths. In his four starts since then, he has been beaten by no more than three and three quarters lengths, coming into the race off of a late closing second in an $81,000 allowance race at this track. Although he does seem to be a step below the rest of these horses, I would not be surprised if he ran huge today. He will carry 118 pounds and will be ridden by J. Bravo. He is trained by Christopher Clement, who also has Winchester here today.

So, who are my picks? Well, it's a tough race to figure out, but here they are. . .

1 Acclamation
2 Take the Points
3 Winchester
4 Telling
5 Jeune-Turc
6 Chinchon
7 Get Serious
8 Laureate Conductor
9 Straight Story

The sad part is, I like every horse here and don't want to have to put anyone in that ninth position. Straight Story could run huge, but I feel he has just a touch of stamina limitation that may show up here. As for Winchester, he could be sitting on a big one, but his performance in the Manhattan was slightly flattered by the fact that Gio Ponti ran into traffic and Winchester did not. As for Take the Points, I think he has a bit of stamina limitation too, and that a mile and three eighths may be just too far for him. This goes the same for Get Serious, only more so. Telling should finally get a decent pace to run down, and should come flying late, along with Jeune-Turc and possibly Chinchon. Laureate Conductor has a chance at hitting the board, but I don't think that he can win.

So this leaves me with Acclamation. I honestly feel this colt is something special and is on his way to an Eclipse Award winning campaign. I do believe that this is the next step.

Who do you like?

PRIORESS STAKES ---- New York against Kentucky

The grade I Prioress Stakes, a six furlong sprint race for three year old fillies, has drawn a nice field of five runners. Four of them are Kentucky-breds, and one of them is a New York-bred. Obviously, with the race being held at Belmont Park, the New York-bred has the "Home State Advantage" and is the favorite. She is the favorite despite the fact that the Kentucky invaders out number her four to one.

She is the favorite because she is Franny Freud.

The dominating filly has beaten colts twice, won on dirt, synthetic, and turf, and is riding a three race win streak. She is undefeated at this distance, and has won two out of three at this track. The daughter of Freud is the deserving favorite and will likely be sent off at around 3-5. She will be ridden by regular rider Garret Gomez and will carry top weight of 122 pounds.

Her toughest competition will probably come from Champagne d'Oro, last seen upsetting the grade I Acorn Stakes in early June at odds of 39-1. The daughter of Medaglia d'Oro cuts back to six furlongs (the Acorn was a mile) and has the speed to get the job done. She will carry 120 pounds and will be ridden by Miguel Mena.

Bonnie Blue Flag is another interesting runner. Trained by Bob Baffert, the daughter of Mineshaft won the Cinemine Stakes at the end of May and could have a huge chance at pulling the upset. She will be ridden by hot jockey Martin Garcia and will carry 120 pounds. Watch her carefully!
Funny Feeling, a daughter of Distorted Humor, is a major contender as well. She has won her last two starts, an allowance optional claiming race at the end of April and the Just Smashing Stakes at the end of May. Six furlongs seems to be her best distance, and if the pace is fast enough tomorrow, she could come running late.

Stormandaprayer completes the field. The daughter of Songandaprayer broke her maiden in impressive fashion last time out in a maiden special weight race at Belmont Park. It took her a while to win, but she looks ready to take a piece of it tomorrow.

So here are my picks. . .

1 Franny Freud
2 Bonnie Blue Flag
3 Champagne d'Oro
4 Funny Feeling
5 Stormandaprayer

I do believe that Franny Freud is the best horse in the race and will come through with a win. Bonnie Blue Flag looks ready to run huge, but I think Champagne d'Oro is going to regress off of her Acorn win. Funny Feeling should be running late, and although I do like Stormandaprayer, I just don't think that she is ready. And yet, I can see her winning.

It's going to be a fun race to watch.

JERSEY SHORE STAKES ---- Have a Safe Trip

In horse racing, having a good trip is very important. Ice Box probably would have won the Kentucky Derby if he had gotten a clear trip. Being forced to come seven wide can cost you a race you surely would have won if you had gotten clear on the rail.

Considering that only six horses have been entered, the inexperienced Safe Trip should be able to get the trip he needs to win.

The six furlong Jersey Shore Stakes, held at Monmouth Park on the 4th, drew a fine field of three year old sprinters, any of which could become the most dominate three year old sprinter by the end of the year.

Despite its grade III status, this could be a very influential race.

To begin, there is the number one horse, Out of Respect. The son of Read the Footnotes has never finished worse than second, winning three of his five races. He comes into the race off of a win in a six furlong allowance race at this track. He should be in the mix early, but I'm afraid that I can't see him winning. He will carry 119 pounds, and will be ridden by P. Lopez.

Then there is the morning line favorite at 5-2, Discreetly Mine. The son of Mineshaft comes off of a second place finish to the top three year old sprinter D' Funnybone in the seven furlong Woody Stephens Stakes. In that race, he dualed with Eightyfiveinafifty for the first half mile before putting that one away. He is a major contender here, although he will be carrying top weight of 123 pounds. He will be ridden by John Velazquez and is trained by Todd Pletcher.

Partyallnightlong is the morning line longshot at 8-1. The son of Put It Back into this race having won two of his three starts, with his only loss coming in his first race. In his last race, an allowance race at this track, he won in wire-to-wire fashion, drawing away to a six and a quarter length score. He doesn't seem to have the speed that some of the others do, but he could get a piece of it. He will carry 119 pounds and will be ridden by C. Marquez. He is trained by E. Broome.

This brings us to the filly, Christine Daae. The daughter of Giant's Causeway seemed to have an unlimited future after winning a maiden race by nine lengths and an allowance race by three, but then finished fifth of sixth in the grade II Bonnie Miss Stakes, beaten by fourteen lengths. She was then given a bit of a rest and came back to finish a fast closing second, beaten a nose, in the six furlong Red Cross Stakes at this track. If she runs like she did in her maiden race, she will be in the mix. She will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by J. Bravo. She is trained by Patrick Biancone.

Then there is Cool Bullet, the co-second choice at 3-1. The son of Preakness winner Red Bullet has won a trio of stakes races, all of them at six furlongs. He comes into the race off of a win in the Rumson Stakes at this track. He has shown ability, but is he good enough for this group? We will find out today. He will be ridden by J. Hernandez and will carry 119 pounds. He is trained by S. Margolis.

And finally, there is Safe Trip, the other 3-1 shot. The son of Tale of the Cat has won two of his three races, his last race being an allowance race which he won impressively. He has shown some excellent speed and I feel that he is sitting on a huge race. He will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Jose Lezcano. He is trained by E. Kenneally.

So here are my picks for this race. . .

1 Safe Trip
2 Discreetly Mine
3 Cool Bullet
4 Christine Daae
5 Out of Respect
6 Partyallnightlong

I just have a feeling that Safe Trip is sitting on a huge race and will win impressively. Discreetly Mine was very sharp in his last race, but can he repeat that effort? We will know this afternoon.

SUBURBAN HANDICAP ---- Time for Revenge

The last fifteen months have been very discouraging for the connections of I Want Revenge. The son of Stephen Got Even was the morning line favorite for the 2009 Kentucky Derby, based off of his impressive wins in both the Gotham and the Wood Memorial. But then he was injured, and many wondered if he would ever race again.

But after many long months of recovery, and many more months of training, I Want Revenge is back in the grade II nine furlong Suburban Handicap. Will he be as good as he was last year? I don't know. He has to carry top weight of 119 pounds, giving away as many as eleven, but he should be able to handle it. He will be ridden by Joe Talamo and is trained by Rick Dutrow.

Regal Ransom is another top contender. The classy front runner has not raced since finishing eighth to Zenyatta in last year's Breeders' Cup Classic, but prior to that, won the Super Derby over Blame and the UAE Derby over Desert Party. He is very much in the mix here. He will carry 118 pounds and will be ridden by Alan Garcia. He is trained by S. bin Suroor.

Then there is Eldaafer. The five year old gelding has won six of his twenty starts, with his biggest win coming in last year's Brooklyn Handicap. This will be his seventh start of the year. He comes into the race off of a third place finish in the Brooklyn Handicap, beaten two lengths by Alcomo and Gabriel's Hill. Nine furlongs may be a bit short for him, but with only 114 pounds on his back, he should be a contender. He will be ridden by J. Valdivia Jr. and is trained by D. Alvarado.

Convocation could be a threat as well. The four year old Pulpit colt has only won twice from nine starts, but did finish fourth in the Met Mile earlier this year, beaten seven lengths by top older male Quality Road. He gets into the race with 115 pounds and could come running late. He will be ridden by M. Luzzi and is trained by Jimmy Jerkens.

Pictural (110), Unbridled Danger (108), and Haynesfield (115) complete the field. Pictural is I Want Revenge's stablemate and could act as a rabbit for the favorite. In his last race, he finished sixth in a claiming race at Churchill Downs.

You can't help but pull for Unbridled Danger, a veteran campaigner who has raced 82 times, winning five of them. This will be the second stakes race of his career. He comes into the race off of a fourth place finish, beaten two and three quarter lengths, in a starter allowance race last Saturday. Incredibly, this will be his fourteenth race of the year. Last year, he made twenty-four starts! In 2008, he made twenty-one! What a horse!

As for Haynesfield, he could get a piece of it. The colt has won seven of his ten races, and brings a three race win streak into the Suburban. Last November, he won the grade III Discovery Handicap, and he has been proven here at Belmont Park. He should be in the mix.

So here are my picks. . .

1 I Want Revenge
2 Regal Ransom
3 Haynesfield
4 Eldaafer
5 Convocation
6 Unbridled Danger
7 Pictural

I feel confident that I Want Revenge is the best horse in the race and will win despite the long layoff. Regal Ransom should run a great race too, and Haynesfield has been running quite well as of late. But I will be cheering for Unbridled Danger, even though I don't think he will win. I can't wait!

OTHER RACE NEWS

Mine That Bird, upset winner of last year's Kentucky Derby, will make his first start since finishing ninth in the Breeders' Cup Classic tomorrow in the grade II Firecracker Handicap.

I won't get into a detailed description of the race, but it will be the son of Birdstone's first start on turf, although he did run well over the synthetic track at Woodbine. He had originally been entered in an allowance race scheduled for Saturday, but the race failed to fill.

His main competition will likely come from Attempted Humor, Tizdejavu, Inca King, Pop Tarrt, and Skipadate. Tizdejavu is a grade II stakes winner, and Skipadate comes off of a fine allowance victory. It will be interesting to see if they can beat Mine That Bird.

Up in Canada, there is the Queen's Plate Stakes. The $1,000,000 event is the Canadian equivalent of the Kentucky Derby, and has drawn a field of thirteen, of which two are fillies.

The morning line favorite is Hotep, a colt I liked along the Triple Crown trail until he finished tenth in the Risen Star Stakes. However, upon shipping to Woodbine, he has become a different horse, winning the Wando Stakes and finishing second to Exhi in the Marine Stakes.
Mobilizer is the second choice. The colt has never finished worse than third in four starts, and comes into the race off of a second place finish to Big Red Mike in the Plate Trial Stakes after taking the lead in the stretch.

Then there are the two fillies, Roan Inish and Moment of Majesty. Roan Inish comes into the race off of a head victory in the Woodbine Oaks. Moment of Majesty was the unfortunate filly who was a head behind Roan Inish in the Oaks. Roan Inish will attempt to become the fifth filly to sweep the Woodbine Oaks/Queen's Plate double. I will be cheering for her.
In Illinois, 2009 Eclipse champion female sprinter Informed Decision will see if third time really is the charm in the grade III seven furlong Chicago Handicap, a race she won last year en route to winning the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. Since the Breeders' Cup, she has raced twice, finishing third both times. She faces an easier field in this race, but will have to give away six to eleven pounds to her seven rivals. Hooh Why could prove to be the biggest threat to her. She has shown some class in the past and could pull the upset if the conditions are right.

Also in Illinois is the Arlington Oaks, a grade III nine furlong race for three year old fillies. The morning line favorite is Chantilly Nayla, who comes into the race off of a fifth place finish in the American 1,000 Guineas. Snow Top Mountain, Upperline, and Age of Humor are her main competitors, with longshots Dundalk Dust and Laura Babe completing the field. Personally, I like Upperline.

OTHER PICKS

BASHFORD MANOR STAKES (gr. III)

1 Lou Brissie
2 Speed Demon
3 Kantharos
4 Gold for Cash
5 Saturday Dance
6 Thewayitusedtobe

SALVATOR MILE (gr. III)

1 Munnings
2 You and I Forever
3 Duke of Mischief
4 Le Grand Cru
5 Gone Astray

AMERICAN OAKS (gr. I)

1 Andina
2 City to City
3 Harmonious
4 Antares World
5 Conniption
6 Riviera Chic
7 Weekend Magic

I would do a major race results update, but I am out of time. But I promise that I will recap everything that has happened since last Saturday very soon.

Enjoy the races!

-Keelerman