Saturday, July 17, 2010

MODESTY HANDICAP ANALYSIS: Can Tuscan Evening continue her dominance?

The grade III Modesty Handicap has a little added flair this year. The current leader of the Turf Females division, Tuscan Evening, will be using the race as a prep for the grade I Beverly D Stakes next month.

The mile and three sixteenths event will be Tuscan Evening's first start outside of California since October 2008. The Irish-bred filly raced in her native Ireland for a year and a half before coming to the United States. She is the 7-5 morning line favorite, having won all five of her races this year, including the grade I Gamely Stakes. She will carry the highweight of 124 pounds and will be ridden by regular rider Rafael Bejarano.

Her main competition will probably come from Rainbow View. The four year old Dynaformer filly comes into the race off of a disappointing third in the grade II Nassau Stakes at Woodbine as the favorite, but won two races before that, including the grade III Gallorette Stakes. She is a major contender here, especially with regular rider Julien Leparoux back in the saddle. She will carry 122 pounds.

Hot Cha Cha is another logical threat for the win. The four year old daugher of Cactus Ridge is a grade I winner, having won the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes at Keeneland last October, and comes into the Modesty off of a win in the grade III Early Times Mint Julep Handicap. She will carry 121 pounds and will be ridden by James Graham.

Single Solution, Askbut I won'ttell, and Eclair de Lune complete the field.

It's post time! Here are my picks. . .

1 Tuscan Evening
2 Rainbow View
3 Eclair de Lune
4 Hot Cha Cha
5 Askbut I Won'ttell
6 Single Solution

-Keelerman

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