Camp Victory rallied past heavily favored The Factor to post a 10-1 upset in the $250,000 Triple Bend Handicap (gr. I) this afternoon at Betfair Hollywood Park.
Ridden to victory by Joseph Talamo, Camp Victory settled into midpack early on, just a few lengths behind a moderately quick pace set by The Factor, who ran the opening quarter mile in :22.49 and :44.82. Italian Rules and Smiling Tiger were right behind him in third, followed closely by Camp Victory and Centralinteligence. There was a large gap back to Tres Borrachos in sixth, while Mobilized was the trailer by at least eighteen or twenty lengths.
Rounding the turn, Smiling Tiger moved up to challenge The Factor, and those two briefly kicked away from the field. However, Camp Victory soon entered the picture on the far outside, and entering the homestretch he left The Factor and Smiling Tiger behind en route to a decisive victory. The final time for seven furlongs was 1:22.75.
Mobilized made up an incredible amount of ground to finish a distant third, while Tres Borrachos rallied on the outside to complete the superfecta.
-Keelerman
Saturday, June 30, 2012
TEETH OF THE DOG WINS THE DWYER STAKES!
Teeth of the Dog and Fast Falcon, the 1-2 finishers in the Easy Goer Stakes earlier this month, found themselves in those same positions this afternoon in the $200,000 Dwyer Stakes (gr. II) at Belmont Park, with Teeth of the Dog again emerging victorious, but only by a head.
Under Joel Rosario, Teeth of the Dog got off to an alert start and soon settled into the second position early on as Morgan's Guerrilla set a testing pace of :22.99 and :46.12. Also up close were Monarchic and Guyana Star Dweej, while Zetterholm, Unstoppable U, and Fast Falcon were at the rear of the field.
As the field moved around the far turn, Teeth of the Dog began to apply more serious pressure to Morgan's Guerrilla, while Zetterholm loomed boldly on the far outside. The trio ran three-quarters of a mile in 1:09.91 and entered the homestretch with little between them.
However, on the far outside, Fast Falcon was putting in a terrific rally and appeared to be on his way to victory. Closing steadily, he quickly passed Morgan's Guerrilla and Zetterholm, while setting his sights on Teeth of the Dog. However, Teeth of the Dog dug in gamely for the final yards, turning back Fast Falcon's late run to triumph by a head.
The final time for a mile and a sixteenth was1:41.34. Morgan's Guerrilla held third over Zetterholm.
-Keelerman
Under Joel Rosario, Teeth of the Dog got off to an alert start and soon settled into the second position early on as Morgan's Guerrilla set a testing pace of :22.99 and :46.12. Also up close were Monarchic and Guyana Star Dweej, while Zetterholm, Unstoppable U, and Fast Falcon were at the rear of the field.
As the field moved around the far turn, Teeth of the Dog began to apply more serious pressure to Morgan's Guerrilla, while Zetterholm loomed boldly on the far outside. The trio ran three-quarters of a mile in 1:09.91 and entered the homestretch with little between them.
However, on the far outside, Fast Falcon was putting in a terrific rally and appeared to be on his way to victory. Closing steadily, he quickly passed Morgan's Guerrilla and Zetterholm, while setting his sights on Teeth of the Dog. However, Teeth of the Dog dug in gamely for the final yards, turning back Fast Falcon's late run to triumph by a head.
The final time for a mile and a sixteenth was1:41.34. Morgan's Guerrilla held third over Zetterholm.
-Keelerman
BREEDERS' CUP COUNTDOWN -- June 30th, 2012
The Factor, Smiling Tiger, Hansen, Mr. Commons, Little Mike, Aruna, Teeth of the Dog, Sassy Image, Successful Dan, Fort Larned, Awesome Gem -- these names are among the many entered to race this weekend in the variety of graded stakes races spread across the country. There are so many fabulous races scheduled that it's difficult to choose a feature race for the week, but after a great deal of debate, I settled upon the $250,000 Triple Bend Handicap (gr. I) at Betfair Hollywood Park. Let's see who's running!
Triple Bend Handicap (gr. I)
Seven furlongs on the Betfair Hollywood Park Cushion Track
Entries:
The biggest question in this race is whether or not The Factor, a two-time grade I winner from the barn of Bob Baffert, can rebound from a highly disappointing performance last time out in the Dubai Golden Shaheen (UAE-I), halfway across the world at Meydan racecourse. That day, he was uncharacteristically dull, never flashing his blinding speed at any point in the race. Perhaps it was the trip across the world, or the night racing, or the synthetic surface -- or perhaps a combination of all three -- but the fact is, The Factor is better than that, and has been training very well for his return. He should appreciate the distance of this race, for he is a perfect 4-for-4 at seven furlongs, but it is worth noting that he lost his only start here at Hollywood and may be better on dirt than on synthetic.
Another major question in this race is whether or not Smiling Tiger, a six-time graded stakes winner, is past his prime. His best year came in 2010, when he Ancient Title Stakes (gr. I), Bing Crosby Stakes (gr. I), and Lazaro Barrera Memorial Stakes (gr. III), in addition to placing in the Breeders' Cup Sprint (gr. I), Malibu Stakes (gr. I), and Pat O'Brien Stakes (gr. I). He was plenty good in 2011 as well, sweeping to victories in the Triple Bend Handicap (gr. I), San Carlos Handicap (gr. II), and Count Fleet Handicap (gr. III). But this year, he has only managed to finish third in the True North Handicap (gr. II) and fifth in the Churchill Downs Stakes (gr. II), and on neither occasion did he showcase his typical early speed. Perhaps a return to Hollywood Park can help him find the winner's circle, and it would be nice to see him repeat in this race, but he's going to have to dramatically reverse his form in order to do so.
So there you have it -- the two race favorites, and both seem a bit vulnerable. If they both falter, there are a number of other horses that could pick up the pieces, including Mobilized, Centralinteligence, and Camp Victory. Mobilized is a veteran of the California circuit, having made all twenty-three of his starts in the state, but the versatile six-year-old seems to be only now reaching his peak. If you toss out his fifth-place finish in the American Handicap (gr. II) on turf last time out, you easily see that he is in great form. Two starts back, he won the 7-1/2 furlong Tiznow Stakes here at Hollywood Park by a terrific 7 1/4 lengths -- despite rallying from eleven lengths off the pace! It was about as impressive has you can imagine, and I feel he's up to doing it again so long as there is a moderately quick pace in front of him.
Centralinteligence is also in good form, having won an allowance race impressively two starts back before finishing a strong second to a loose-on-the-lead Roman Threat in the Los Angeles Handicap (gr. III) here at Hollywood. The pace scenario of this race seems to suit him a bit better, so don't be surprised if this colt waits just off of the early pace before pouncing in the homestretch.
As for Camp Victory, he finished second in this race behind Smiling Tiger one year ago, and backed up that effort with another strong second in the Pat O'Brien Stakes (gr. I) to The Factor, but his form this year has only been so-so. He began 2012 by finishing third Potrero Grande Handicap (gr. II) to Amazombie and Roman Threat before finishing third yet again in the above-discussed Los Angeles Handicap. He was badly beaten in neither performance, but he would likely need a very fast pace to set up his late run, and it's hard to say for sure whether or not he will get it.
One horse that may be a bit overlooked is Tres Borrachos, a seven-year-old gelding that is 8-1 on the morning line. He record of four wins in thirty-eight starts might not inspire confidence in his chances, but he was in good form all last year, and while his two starts this year haven't been all that great, I feel like he had logical excuses in both. Believe it or not, he has only sprinted three times in his entire career -- one of those being his debut performance. I think he will appreciate the cutback in distance, and with sufficient pace in front of him, he could be picking off horses late.
The two longshots are Italian Rules, a capable allowance runner that has not finished worse than second since October 2010, and Don Tito, who finished third in an allowance race on the turf last time out.
My selections are:
1 Mobilized
2 Centralinteligence
3 Tres Borrachos
4 The Factor
Other Races of Note
At Betfair Hollywood Park . . .
Race 9: The Shoemaker Mile Stakes (gr. I) at a mile on turf has drawn a terrific field of eight, including seven graded stakes winners. Mr. Commons is the morning line favorite, for he has plenty of talent and rarely fails to fire, but he has lost a couple of close races this year in which appeared to have the race sewn up. He could certainly find the winner's circle today, but if he falters again, there are plenty of horses here capable of handing him a defeat. One of them is the speedy Little Mike, who won the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic Stakes (gr. I) at Churchill Downs last time out after being allowed to set a slow pace. That may be tough today, however, with the presence of fellow front-runner Liberian Freighter.
Perhaps the most intriguing horse in this race is Suggestive Boy, and Argentinean import making his first start for trainer Ronald McAnally. In his native country, he won four of his six starts, with all four victories coming in group I races. His final times, subjective as though can be, have been phenomenal -- he once ran "about" one mile on turf in 1:32 2/5, and "about" ten furlongs in 1:58 flat. He's had plenty of experience racing counter-clockwise, as he will today, so the switch to a U.S. course shouldn't be too much of an issue. The only other real concern is that he hasn't raced since October, but he has been breezing steadily and should be ready to roll.
Other major contenders include the consistent graded stakes winner Jeranimo, the up-and-coming eastern shipper Corporate Jungle, and the 5-for-6 Dubai You X Y Z.
At Belmont Park . . .
Race 9: The ten-furlong New York Stakes (gr. II), for fillies and mares on the turf, is only expected to have six starters -- Acting Happy is entered for the main track only -- but there's plenty of talent in the race, including possible division leader Aruna. Trained by Graham Motion, the five-year-old mare had a strong season last year, culminating with a victory in the Juddmonte Spinster Stakes (gr. I) at Keeneland and a narrow defeat in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (gr. I). She began this year by finishing sixth and last in a paceless edition of the Jenny Wiley Stakes (gr. I), then rebounded sharply to win the Sheepshead Bay Stakes (gr. II) here at Belmont last time out. In that race, she beat -- among others -- Hit it Rich, Mystical Star, and Principal Role, all of which are returning to face her again.
Aruna's main opposition will likely come from the Irish-bred Banimpire, who will be making her first start in the U.S. after winning numerous stakes events in Europe at such prestigious tracks as Ascot and Curragh. Her new trainer, Chad Brown, has done well with European imports in the past, including last year's Eclipse champion turf female Stacelita, and while Banimpire may need to get a start under her belt before arriving at peak form, she should be a formidable contender today and could conceivably pull off an upset.
Race 10: The $200,000 Dwyer Stakes (gr. II) may not have drawn the best three-year-olds of the year, but the group of seven set to contest this 1 1/16th miles race should nevertheless provide an interesting show. The morning line favorite is Teeth of the Dog, who is coming off of an authoritative victory in the Easy Goer Stakes last time out at Belmont Park. He may not have beaten much in terms of top three-year-olds, but he was visually impressive, and his final time was strong enough. He looks like the one to beat.
If anyone is going to pull off an upset, it will probably be Zetterholm, who is coming off of a fourth-place finish in the Preakness Stakes (gr. I), in which he finished 3 1/4 lengths ahead of Teeth of the Dog. He should appreciate the distance of this race, cutting back in distance from the Preakness, and a good trip to set up his late run may be all he needs to find the winner's circle.
Unstoppable U, sixth in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) after winning his first two starts, and Morgan's Guerrilla, who finished second in the Illinois Derby (gr. III) three starts back, are other logical contenders. Fast Falcon, who finished second to Teeth of the Dog in the Easy Goer Stakes, could also be a contender at a price.
At Churchill Downs . . .
Race 5: The seven-furlong, $73,600 Roxelana Stakes for fillies and mares is not the feature of the card, but it's worth noting nevertheless because it marks the second start of the year for Sassy Image, a two-time grade I winner last year. She went to the sidelines last August after suffering an injury when finishing last in the Ballerina Stakes (gr. I) at Saratoga, and did not return until the Humana Distaff Stakes (gr. I) last month, where she finished a disappointing sixth. This race looks like a good spot to get her back on track, and assuming she rebounds, it should set her up well from a strong second-half of the year.
Race 6: Two-year-old colts are the star of the card, as eight of them are scheduled to head to post for the six-furlong Bashford Manor Stakes (gr. III). There are plenty of interesting contenders to choose from, with not a lot separating them -- after all, once you've seen one maiden victory, you've seen them all! :)
The morning line favorite is Special Jo, based off of his impressive debut victory here at Churchill on May 25th, in which he won by six lengths after dueling for the lead. However, he'll likely have to run even better today in order to defeat the likes of Roman's Avenue, Positively, Good Tickled, and Circle Unbroken. All are coming off of impressive victories, and any one of them could pull off a mild upset. Perhaps most interesting down the road will be Roman's Avenue and Positively, as both have strong pedigrees that could make them contenders later in the year, as the races get longer.
At Prairie Meadows . . .
Race 8: The $250,000 Iowa Derby (gr. III) marks the return of last year's juvenile champion Hansen, unraced since finishing off-the-board in the Kentucky Derby (gr. I). This race looks like an absolutely perfect spot for Hansen -- a mile and a sixteenth, lesser-quality three-year-olds -- it should get him right back on track for bigger races down the road.
His main opposition today will likely come from Alsvid, a talented colt that has won two stakes races here at Prairie Meadows this year, those being the Golden Circle and Prairie Mile Stakes. What could make this race particularily interesting is that Alsvid, like Hansen, has a great deal of early speed. While both Alsvid and Hansen have shown the ability to rate in the past, it will be interesting to see which one gets the lead today.
Then again, the possibility exists that neither could get the lead. That honor could potentially go to Hero of Order, who upset the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) earlier this year at odds of 109-1. He has been disappointing since then, but a return to dirt, coupled with a smaller field, could set him up for another big run.
All told, it should be an interesting battle for the early lead!
Race 9: The Iowa Derby may be an interesting race, but it's not nearly as fascinating as the $300,000 Prairie Meadows Cornhusker Handicap (gr. III). The nine-furlong race is absolutely loaded with talent, like Alysheba Stakes (gr. III) winner Successful Dan, the track-record setting Fort Larned, veteran grade I winner Awesome Gem, in addition to the last two winners of this race, Headache (2011) and Shadowbdancing (2010). This isn't the kind of race that you try to handicap. This is the kind of race you just sit back and enjoy. Personally, I would be cheering for my old favorite Awesome Gem, but I expect to see Successful Dan prove his quality by adding another graded stakes victory to his record.
-Keelerman
Triple Bend Handicap (gr. I)
Seven furlongs on the Betfair Hollywood Park Cushion Track
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Tres Borrachos | Victor Espinoza |
| 2 | Centralinteligence | Jose Valdivia, Jr. |
| 3 | Mobilized | Garrett Gomez |
| 4 | Don Tito | Martin Pedroza |
| 5 | Camp Victory | Joe Talamo |
| 6 | The Factor | Rafael Bejarano |
| 7 | Smiling Tiger | Mike Smith |
| 8 | Comma to the Top | (Scratched) |
| 9 | Italian Rules | Kevin Krigger |
The biggest question in this race is whether or not The Factor, a two-time grade I winner from the barn of Bob Baffert, can rebound from a highly disappointing performance last time out in the Dubai Golden Shaheen (UAE-I), halfway across the world at Meydan racecourse. That day, he was uncharacteristically dull, never flashing his blinding speed at any point in the race. Perhaps it was the trip across the world, or the night racing, or the synthetic surface -- or perhaps a combination of all three -- but the fact is, The Factor is better than that, and has been training very well for his return. He should appreciate the distance of this race, for he is a perfect 4-for-4 at seven furlongs, but it is worth noting that he lost his only start here at Hollywood and may be better on dirt than on synthetic.
Another major question in this race is whether or not Smiling Tiger, a six-time graded stakes winner, is past his prime. His best year came in 2010, when he Ancient Title Stakes (gr. I), Bing Crosby Stakes (gr. I), and Lazaro Barrera Memorial Stakes (gr. III), in addition to placing in the Breeders' Cup Sprint (gr. I), Malibu Stakes (gr. I), and Pat O'Brien Stakes (gr. I). He was plenty good in 2011 as well, sweeping to victories in the Triple Bend Handicap (gr. I), San Carlos Handicap (gr. II), and Count Fleet Handicap (gr. III). But this year, he has only managed to finish third in the True North Handicap (gr. II) and fifth in the Churchill Downs Stakes (gr. II), and on neither occasion did he showcase his typical early speed. Perhaps a return to Hollywood Park can help him find the winner's circle, and it would be nice to see him repeat in this race, but he's going to have to dramatically reverse his form in order to do so.
So there you have it -- the two race favorites, and both seem a bit vulnerable. If they both falter, there are a number of other horses that could pick up the pieces, including Mobilized, Centralinteligence, and Camp Victory. Mobilized is a veteran of the California circuit, having made all twenty-three of his starts in the state, but the versatile six-year-old seems to be only now reaching his peak. If you toss out his fifth-place finish in the American Handicap (gr. II) on turf last time out, you easily see that he is in great form. Two starts back, he won the 7-1/2 furlong Tiznow Stakes here at Hollywood Park by a terrific 7 1/4 lengths -- despite rallying from eleven lengths off the pace! It was about as impressive has you can imagine, and I feel he's up to doing it again so long as there is a moderately quick pace in front of him.
Centralinteligence is also in good form, having won an allowance race impressively two starts back before finishing a strong second to a loose-on-the-lead Roman Threat in the Los Angeles Handicap (gr. III) here at Hollywood. The pace scenario of this race seems to suit him a bit better, so don't be surprised if this colt waits just off of the early pace before pouncing in the homestretch.
As for Camp Victory, he finished second in this race behind Smiling Tiger one year ago, and backed up that effort with another strong second in the Pat O'Brien Stakes (gr. I) to The Factor, but his form this year has only been so-so. He began 2012 by finishing third Potrero Grande Handicap (gr. II) to Amazombie and Roman Threat before finishing third yet again in the above-discussed Los Angeles Handicap. He was badly beaten in neither performance, but he would likely need a very fast pace to set up his late run, and it's hard to say for sure whether or not he will get it.
One horse that may be a bit overlooked is Tres Borrachos, a seven-year-old gelding that is 8-1 on the morning line. He record of four wins in thirty-eight starts might not inspire confidence in his chances, but he was in good form all last year, and while his two starts this year haven't been all that great, I feel like he had logical excuses in both. Believe it or not, he has only sprinted three times in his entire career -- one of those being his debut performance. I think he will appreciate the cutback in distance, and with sufficient pace in front of him, he could be picking off horses late.
The two longshots are Italian Rules, a capable allowance runner that has not finished worse than second since October 2010, and Don Tito, who finished third in an allowance race on the turf last time out.
My selections are:
1 Mobilized
2 Centralinteligence
3 Tres Borrachos
4 The Factor
Other Races of Note
At Betfair Hollywood Park . . .
Race 9: The Shoemaker Mile Stakes (gr. I) at a mile on turf has drawn a terrific field of eight, including seven graded stakes winners. Mr. Commons is the morning line favorite, for he has plenty of talent and rarely fails to fire, but he has lost a couple of close races this year in which appeared to have the race sewn up. He could certainly find the winner's circle today, but if he falters again, there are plenty of horses here capable of handing him a defeat. One of them is the speedy Little Mike, who won the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic Stakes (gr. I) at Churchill Downs last time out after being allowed to set a slow pace. That may be tough today, however, with the presence of fellow front-runner Liberian Freighter.
Perhaps the most intriguing horse in this race is Suggestive Boy, and Argentinean import making his first start for trainer Ronald McAnally. In his native country, he won four of his six starts, with all four victories coming in group I races. His final times, subjective as though can be, have been phenomenal -- he once ran "about" one mile on turf in 1:32 2/5, and "about" ten furlongs in 1:58 flat. He's had plenty of experience racing counter-clockwise, as he will today, so the switch to a U.S. course shouldn't be too much of an issue. The only other real concern is that he hasn't raced since October, but he has been breezing steadily and should be ready to roll.
Other major contenders include the consistent graded stakes winner Jeranimo, the up-and-coming eastern shipper Corporate Jungle, and the 5-for-6 Dubai You X Y Z.
At Belmont Park . . .
Race 9: The ten-furlong New York Stakes (gr. II), for fillies and mares on the turf, is only expected to have six starters -- Acting Happy is entered for the main track only -- but there's plenty of talent in the race, including possible division leader Aruna. Trained by Graham Motion, the five-year-old mare had a strong season last year, culminating with a victory in the Juddmonte Spinster Stakes (gr. I) at Keeneland and a narrow defeat in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (gr. I). She began this year by finishing sixth and last in a paceless edition of the Jenny Wiley Stakes (gr. I), then rebounded sharply to win the Sheepshead Bay Stakes (gr. II) here at Belmont last time out. In that race, she beat -- among others -- Hit it Rich, Mystical Star, and Principal Role, all of which are returning to face her again.
Aruna's main opposition will likely come from the Irish-bred Banimpire, who will be making her first start in the U.S. after winning numerous stakes events in Europe at such prestigious tracks as Ascot and Curragh. Her new trainer, Chad Brown, has done well with European imports in the past, including last year's Eclipse champion turf female Stacelita, and while Banimpire may need to get a start under her belt before arriving at peak form, she should be a formidable contender today and could conceivably pull off an upset.
Race 10: The $200,000 Dwyer Stakes (gr. II) may not have drawn the best three-year-olds of the year, but the group of seven set to contest this 1 1/16th miles race should nevertheless provide an interesting show. The morning line favorite is Teeth of the Dog, who is coming off of an authoritative victory in the Easy Goer Stakes last time out at Belmont Park. He may not have beaten much in terms of top three-year-olds, but he was visually impressive, and his final time was strong enough. He looks like the one to beat.
If anyone is going to pull off an upset, it will probably be Zetterholm, who is coming off of a fourth-place finish in the Preakness Stakes (gr. I), in which he finished 3 1/4 lengths ahead of Teeth of the Dog. He should appreciate the distance of this race, cutting back in distance from the Preakness, and a good trip to set up his late run may be all he needs to find the winner's circle.
Unstoppable U, sixth in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) after winning his first two starts, and Morgan's Guerrilla, who finished second in the Illinois Derby (gr. III) three starts back, are other logical contenders. Fast Falcon, who finished second to Teeth of the Dog in the Easy Goer Stakes, could also be a contender at a price.
At Churchill Downs . . .
Race 5: The seven-furlong, $73,600 Roxelana Stakes for fillies and mares is not the feature of the card, but it's worth noting nevertheless because it marks the second start of the year for Sassy Image, a two-time grade I winner last year. She went to the sidelines last August after suffering an injury when finishing last in the Ballerina Stakes (gr. I) at Saratoga, and did not return until the Humana Distaff Stakes (gr. I) last month, where she finished a disappointing sixth. This race looks like a good spot to get her back on track, and assuming she rebounds, it should set her up well from a strong second-half of the year.
Race 6: Two-year-old colts are the star of the card, as eight of them are scheduled to head to post for the six-furlong Bashford Manor Stakes (gr. III). There are plenty of interesting contenders to choose from, with not a lot separating them -- after all, once you've seen one maiden victory, you've seen them all! :)
The morning line favorite is Special Jo, based off of his impressive debut victory here at Churchill on May 25th, in which he won by six lengths after dueling for the lead. However, he'll likely have to run even better today in order to defeat the likes of Roman's Avenue, Positively, Good Tickled, and Circle Unbroken. All are coming off of impressive victories, and any one of them could pull off a mild upset. Perhaps most interesting down the road will be Roman's Avenue and Positively, as both have strong pedigrees that could make them contenders later in the year, as the races get longer.
At Prairie Meadows . . .
Race 8: The $250,000 Iowa Derby (gr. III) marks the return of last year's juvenile champion Hansen, unraced since finishing off-the-board in the Kentucky Derby (gr. I). This race looks like an absolutely perfect spot for Hansen -- a mile and a sixteenth, lesser-quality three-year-olds -- it should get him right back on track for bigger races down the road.
His main opposition today will likely come from Alsvid, a talented colt that has won two stakes races here at Prairie Meadows this year, those being the Golden Circle and Prairie Mile Stakes. What could make this race particularily interesting is that Alsvid, like Hansen, has a great deal of early speed. While both Alsvid and Hansen have shown the ability to rate in the past, it will be interesting to see which one gets the lead today.
Then again, the possibility exists that neither could get the lead. That honor could potentially go to Hero of Order, who upset the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) earlier this year at odds of 109-1. He has been disappointing since then, but a return to dirt, coupled with a smaller field, could set him up for another big run.
All told, it should be an interesting battle for the early lead!
Race 9: The Iowa Derby may be an interesting race, but it's not nearly as fascinating as the $300,000 Prairie Meadows Cornhusker Handicap (gr. III). The nine-furlong race is absolutely loaded with talent, like Alysheba Stakes (gr. III) winner Successful Dan, the track-record setting Fort Larned, veteran grade I winner Awesome Gem, in addition to the last two winners of this race, Headache (2011) and Shadowbdancing (2010). This isn't the kind of race that you try to handicap. This is the kind of race you just sit back and enjoy. Personally, I would be cheering for my old favorite Awesome Gem, but I expect to see Successful Dan prove his quality by adding another graded stakes victory to his record.
-Keelerman
Wednesday, June 27, 2012
Prairie Meadows Cornhusker Handicap Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the $300,000 Prairie Meadows Cornhusker Handicap (gr. III), to be run on Saturday at Prairie Meadows. The nine-furlong race for three-year-olds and upward has drawn a small but tremendously talented field of six, led by the extremely promising Successful Dan, veteran grade I winner Awesome Gem, 2011 Hawthorne Gold Cup (gr. II) winner Headache, and track record-setting Fort Larned.
1 Taptowne
2 Shadowbdancing
3 Successful Dan
4 Fort Larned
5 Awesome Gem
6 Headache
-Keelerman
1 Taptowne
2 Shadowbdancing
3 Successful Dan
4 Fort Larned
5 Awesome Gem
6 Headache
-Keelerman
Iowa Derby Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the $250,000 Iowa Derby (gr. III), to be run on Saturday at Prairie Meadows. The 1 1/16th miles race for three-year-olds has drawn a small field of five, but there's plenty of talent, as the stars of the race are 2011 juvenile champion Hansen, the consistent three-time stakes winner Alsvid, and Louisiana Derby (gr. II) victor Hero of Order.
1 Hansen
2 Alsvid
3 Hero of Order
4 Macho Bull
5 Truetap
-Keelerman
1 Hansen
2 Alsvid
3 Hero of Order
4 Macho Bull
5 Truetap
-Keelerman
Shoemaker Mile Handicap Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the $300,000 Shoemaker Mile Handicap (gr. I), to be run on Saturday at Betfair Hollywood Park. The prestigious one-mile turf race for three-year-olds and upward has drawn a talented field of eight, including seven graded stakes winners. Among the major contenders are the top miler Mr. Commons, the consistent Jeranimo, the front-running Little Mike, and the Argentinean-import Suggestive Boy.
1 Dubai You X Y Z
2 Hudson Landing
3 Little Mike
4 Suggestive Boy
5 Jeranimo
6 Corporate Jungle
7 Liberian Freighter
8 Mr. Commons
-Keelerman
1 Dubai You X Y Z
2 Hudson Landing
3 Little Mike
4 Suggestive Boy
5 Jeranimo
6 Corporate Jungle
7 Liberian Freighter
8 Mr. Commons
-Keelerman
Triple Bend Handicap Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the $250,000 Triple Bend Handicap (gr. I), to be run on Saturday at Betfair Hollywood Park. The seven-furlong sprint for three-year-olds and upward has drawn a fabulous field of nine, including grade I stakes winners The Factor, Smiling Tiger, and Comma to the Top.
1 Tres Borrachos
2 Centralinteligence
3 Mobilized
4 Don Tito
5 Camp Victory
6 The Factor
7 Smiling Tiger
8 Comma to the Top
9 Italian Rules
-Keelerman
1 Tres Borrachos
2 Centralinteligence
3 Mobilized
4 Don Tito
5 Camp Victory
6 The Factor
7 Smiling Tiger
8 Comma to the Top
9 Italian Rules
-Keelerman
Dwyer Stakes Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the $200,000 Dwyer Stakes (gr. II), to be run on Saturday at Belmont Park. The 1 1/16th miles race for three-year-olds has drawn a talented field of seven, led by Easy Goer Stakes winner Teeth of the Dog, Preakness Stakes (gr. I) fourth-place finisher Zetterholm, and Belmont Stakes (gr. I) also-rans Unstoppable U and Guyana Star Dweej.
1 Morgan's Guerrilla
2 Fast Falcon
3 Guyana Star Dweej
4 Unstoppable U
5 Zetterholm
6 Teeth of the Dog
7 Monarchic
-Keelerman
1 Morgan's Guerrilla
2 Fast Falcon
3 Guyana Star Dweej
4 Unstoppable U
5 Zetterholm
6 Teeth of the Dog
7 Monarchic
-Keelerman
Bashford Manor Stakes Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the $100,000 Bashford Manor Stakes (gr. III), to be run on Saturday at Churchill Downs. The six-furlong juvenile race has drawn a field of eight, led by the promising debut winners Circle Unbroken, Positively, and Good Tickled.
1 Good Tickled
2 Circle Unbroken
3 Go Jack Go
4 Praetorian Prefect
5 Special Jo
6 Roman's Avenue
7 Positively
8 Hightail
-Keelerman
1 Good Tickled
2 Circle Unbroken
3 Go Jack Go
4 Praetorian Prefect
5 Special Jo
6 Roman's Avenue
7 Positively
8 Hightail
-Keelerman
Saturday, June 23, 2012
ZO IMPRESSIVE WINS THE MOTHER GOOSE STAKES!
Zo Impressive pulled off a 10-1 upset this afternoon in the $300,000 Mother Goose Stakes (gr. I) at Belmont Park, holding off a stretch bid from Disposablepleasure to win the 56th running of the prestigious event by three-quarters of a length.
Ridden to victory by Rajiv Maragh, Zo Impressive broke alertly and quickly settled into the third position early on in the field of five, roughly two lengths behind pace-setting favorite Contested. Wildcat's Smile was right behind in second, followed by Believe You Can toward the inside in third. Disposablepleasure was content to trail the field early, but she was never more than four or five lengths off the lead.
Ridden to victory by Rajiv Maragh, Zo Impressive broke alertly and quickly settled into the third position early on in the field of five, roughly two lengths behind pace-setting favorite Contested. Wildcat's Smile was right behind in second, followed by Believe You Can toward the inside in third. Disposablepleasure was content to trail the field early, but she was never more than four or five lengths off the lead.
BREEDERS' CUP COUNTDOWN -- June 23rd, 2012
Compared to last Saturday, this afternoon's racing action may be a little on the light side. Nevertheless, there are plenty of intriguing races to keep an eye on, led by the $300,000 Mother Goose Stakes (gr. I) at Belmont Park, in which the leading three-year-old fillies Believe You Can and Contested will square off in a battle for leadership of the division. Let's start handicapping!
Mother Goose Stakes (gr. I)
1 1/16th miles on the Belmont Park dirt track
Entries:
The field size for this prestigious grade I event may be on the small side, but the race is definitely not small on talent. All told, the five runners have won eight stakes, six graded stakes, and a pair of grade Is -- in addition to placing in seven other stakes races.
The narrow morning line favorite at 7-5 is Contested, from the barn of Bob Baffert. A lightly raced but super-talented daughter of Ghostzapper, she brings a four-race win streak into the Mother Goose, culminating with a five-length victory in the Acorn Stakes (gr. I) here at Belmont last time out. She certainly isn't a lock here -- after all, her superb Acorn effort may have been partly due to the fact that she set an uncontested pace over a speed-favoring track -- but she may simply be the fastest horse in the race, and shouldn't really have any trouble getting to the front.
The other top contender, at odds of 8-5 on the morning line, is Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) victory Believe You Can, who will be making her first start since claiming the Lilies on the day before the Kentucky Derby. Like Contested, Belive You Can possesses a great deal of natural speed, perhaps even enough to beat Contested to the early lead. However, she seems to be at her best rating just behind the early leader, a strategy she used with success in the Oaks, so I wouldn't be surprised to see her settle back and allow Contested to grab the early lead before moving up on the backstretch to apply some pressure. She's turned in a pair of :59 3/5 five-furlong breezes during the last couple of weeks, so it's clear that she's fit. She also has a victory over the Belmont Park main track, having won the Tempted Stakes (gr. III) here last fall. The only question is whether she is good enough to catch Contested in this one-turn race.
Of the other three fillies, the one with the best chance of pulling an upset is probably Zo Impressive. She's actually even less experienced than Contested, with only four starts under belt, but those four starts have yielded a pair of wins, as well as a pair of seconds in graded stakes company. Last time out, she finished five lengths behind Contested in the Acorn Stakes, but I thought she ran very well while attempting to rally over a speed-favoring track. Assuming no bias emerges at Belmont today, and assuming Believe You Can doesn't let Contested escape with an easy lead, I would expect to see Zo Impressive putting in a good rally at the finish.
Disposablepleasure, from the barn of Todd Pletcher, enters this race off of a second-place finish in the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (gr. II) at Pimlico. She was one of the early Kentucky Oaks favorites after winning the Demoiselle Stakes (gr. II) at Aqueduct despite stumbling badly at the start, but she disappointed in her first two starts of the year, finishing fourth in the Davona Dale Stakes (gr. II) and a distant third in the Fair Grounds Oaks (gr. II). However, she showed significant improvement in her third start of the year -- the above mentioned Black-Eyed Susan Stakes -- and rallied well to finish second despite a tough trip. Seeing that Pletcher won the Mother Goose last year with a filly coming off of a runner-up effort in the Black-Eyed Susan, I wouldn't be surprised if he can produce a similar result this year, especially with top jockey Ramon Dominguez in the saddle.
The last filly to discuss is the longshot Wildcat's Smile, a New York-bred filly that finished second to Disposablepleasure in the Demoiselle Stakes last year. She began 2012 at Aqueduct by winning a seven-furlong allowance race for state-breds before finishing a tiring third in the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes. She has trained well enough since then, and should appreciate the cutback to one-turn, but the distance of the Mother Goose may simply be a bit beyond her range.
My selections are:
1 Contested
2 Zo Impressive
3 Believe You Can
4 Disposablepleasure
These are admittedly uncreative selections, but I think that Believe You Can could find herself in the unenviable task of trying to put enough pressure on Contested while trying to save something for the homestretch. In her first start since that tough effort in the Kentucky Oaks, it wouldn't surprise me if she tires just a bit in the homestretch, allowing Zo Impressive to rally for the runner-up spot. But I am fairly confident that Contested will prove best yet again, seizing command of the division with another gate-to-wire victory.
Other Races of Note
At Betfair Hollywood Park . . .
The highlight of the card is the $150,000 Hollywood Oaks (gr. II), where grade I winners Killer Graces, Eden's Moon, and Willa B Awesome will square off at a mile and a sixteenth. Each has virtues. Killer Graces won her grade I -- the Hollywood Starlet Stakes -- over the Hollywood Park Cushion Track, whereas Willa B Awesome and Eden's Moon have both done their best running on the Santa Anita dirt. Willa B Awesome has beaten both Eden's Moon and Killer Graces in the past, and is in good form, but her best races have come over the Santa Anita dirt track. Eden's Moon is probably the quickest filly in the race, and is trained by the masterful Bob Baffert, but is coming off of a last-place finish in the Kentucky Oaks. Who you select is a matter of preference, but I won't be surprised to see Killer Graces in the winners circle following a return to her favorite racetrack. And if you like up-and-comers, don't count out Potesta, who broke her maiden by 11 1/2 lengths here at Hollywood last time out.
At Churchill Downs . . .
A pair of stakes races highlight the Saturday card, including the Debutante Stakes (gr. III) for two-year-old fillies. The morning line favorite is Blueeyesintherein, who broke her maiden in dominating fashion on May 31st, winning a 4-1/2 furlong maiden special weight by 3 3/4 lengths. The runner-up, Shesakitty, is also entered in this spot even though she has yet to win a race, probably because she overcame a poor start to rally strongly in the homestretch. The additional distance in the Debutante, coupled with a hopefully cleaner start, could help her chances. Other logical contenders are Richie'slilcowgirl, a first-time out winner from Arlington Park; Quiet Sucess, who broke her maiden at Churchill on May 2nd; and debut winner Floral Sky.
The other stakes race on the card is the seven-furlong Kelly's Landing Stakes, won two years ago by eventual grade I winner Here Comes Ben. This year's edition has drawn a field of nine, in which Golden Frontier and Cal Nation are the two favorites. The first-mentioned colt is very lightly raced, having only four starts on his record, but he could not have looked better winning a 6-1/2 furlong allowance race here at Churchill on May 24th by 11 1/2 lengths. His final time of 1:15.68 was highly impressive, and he looks like a future graded stakes winner. As for Cal Nation, he made headlines in the winter of 2011 when he broke his maiden by 7 3/4 lengths at Gulfstream Park, but he subsequently failed to live up to expectations, and only found the winner's circle once during the remainder of the year. However, he did look good in his 2012 debut last month, winning a six-furlong maiden special weight at Monmouth by a neck, and he is eligible to improve in his second start of the year.
One other horse worth mentioning is Noble's Promise, who won the grade I Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) back in 2009. Since then, he has become a capable sprinter, winning the Aristides Stakes (gr. III) here at Churchill last year and performing moderately well in a number of other stakes. However, his form this year has not been very good at all, for he has not managed to finish better than third in four starts, and failed to hit the board in two stakes attempts. Perhaps he can reach back into his past and pull out another high-class effort later this afternoon, but it seems that age is beginning to catch up to him.
At Monmouth Park . . .
Sophomore fillies on the turf comprise the feature race of the card, the $100,000 Boiling Springs Stakes (gr. III) at a mile and a sixteenth. Nine entered, but two scratches have reduced the field size to seven. The morning line favorite is Somali Lemonade, winner of the J P Morgan Chase Jessamine Stakes (gr. III) at Keeneland last fall. She's had a bit of trouble returning to form this year, as she could only manage a second in the Appalachian Stakes (gr. III) and a fourth in the Sands Point Stakes (gr. II), but this looks like an easy spot to get back on track, and she should have every chance at finding the winner's circle this time around.
Her main competition will likely come from Dancing Solo, a talented daughter of Giant's Causeway from the barn of Todd Pletcher. She enters this race off of an impressive victory in the Little Silver Stakes at Monmouth Park, in which she closed strongly to win by a length and a half. Time will tell if she is in the same class as Somali Lemonade, but I think she looks like a major contender.
Other major contenders include Zultanite, who finished five lengths in front of Somali Lemonade in the Sands Point Stakes; Glamour N Glory, the runner-up to Dancing Solo in the Little Silver Stakes; and Destiny's Child, a German-bred filly owned by Team Valor International that will be making her first start in the United States.
At Parx Racing . . .
A field of six, reduced from eight by two scratches, is set to start in the $150,000 Donald LeVine Memorial Handicap this afternoon. The morning line favorite is Golddigger's Boy, who has won five of his seven starts here at Parx, including last year's Donald LeVine. He's been in good form this year, and looks to have an excellent chance at adding another stakes victory to his record.
Toby's Corner may very well end up going off as the second choice, despite the fact that he has yet to win a race this year. Winner of the Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I) in 2011, he went to the sidelines with an injury shortly thereafter, returning to the races earlier this year to finish third in both the General George Handicap (gr. II) and New Orleans Handicap (gr. II) before finishing seventh of nine in the Pimlico Special Stakes (gr. III). If he can regain his 2011 form, he could be a serious threat from off the pace.
Another obvious contender is Sloane Ranger, who won an allowance optional claiming race last time out while defeating Golddigger's Boy. A repeat of that performance could be sufficient to secure him the victory. Also intriguing is Ponzi Scheme, winner of the Decathlon Stakes at Monmouth Park last time out. True, he didn't beat much that day after many of the runners were involved in an accident, but he's got class, and he should appreciate the seven-furlong distance of this race.
-Keelerman
Mother Goose Stakes (gr. I)
1 1/16th miles on the Belmont Park dirt track
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Believe You Can | Rosie Napravnik |
| 2 | Contested | Javier Castellano |
| 3 | Disposablepleasure | Ramon Dominguez |
| 4 | Wildcat's Smile | Jose Lezcano |
| 5 | Zo Impressive | Rajiv Maragh |
The field size for this prestigious grade I event may be on the small side, but the race is definitely not small on talent. All told, the five runners have won eight stakes, six graded stakes, and a pair of grade Is -- in addition to placing in seven other stakes races.
The narrow morning line favorite at 7-5 is Contested, from the barn of Bob Baffert. A lightly raced but super-talented daughter of Ghostzapper, she brings a four-race win streak into the Mother Goose, culminating with a five-length victory in the Acorn Stakes (gr. I) here at Belmont last time out. She certainly isn't a lock here -- after all, her superb Acorn effort may have been partly due to the fact that she set an uncontested pace over a speed-favoring track -- but she may simply be the fastest horse in the race, and shouldn't really have any trouble getting to the front.
The other top contender, at odds of 8-5 on the morning line, is Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) victory Believe You Can, who will be making her first start since claiming the Lilies on the day before the Kentucky Derby. Like Contested, Belive You Can possesses a great deal of natural speed, perhaps even enough to beat Contested to the early lead. However, she seems to be at her best rating just behind the early leader, a strategy she used with success in the Oaks, so I wouldn't be surprised to see her settle back and allow Contested to grab the early lead before moving up on the backstretch to apply some pressure. She's turned in a pair of :59 3/5 five-furlong breezes during the last couple of weeks, so it's clear that she's fit. She also has a victory over the Belmont Park main track, having won the Tempted Stakes (gr. III) here last fall. The only question is whether she is good enough to catch Contested in this one-turn race.
Of the other three fillies, the one with the best chance of pulling an upset is probably Zo Impressive. She's actually even less experienced than Contested, with only four starts under belt, but those four starts have yielded a pair of wins, as well as a pair of seconds in graded stakes company. Last time out, she finished five lengths behind Contested in the Acorn Stakes, but I thought she ran very well while attempting to rally over a speed-favoring track. Assuming no bias emerges at Belmont today, and assuming Believe You Can doesn't let Contested escape with an easy lead, I would expect to see Zo Impressive putting in a good rally at the finish.
Disposablepleasure, from the barn of Todd Pletcher, enters this race off of a second-place finish in the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (gr. II) at Pimlico. She was one of the early Kentucky Oaks favorites after winning the Demoiselle Stakes (gr. II) at Aqueduct despite stumbling badly at the start, but she disappointed in her first two starts of the year, finishing fourth in the Davona Dale Stakes (gr. II) and a distant third in the Fair Grounds Oaks (gr. II). However, she showed significant improvement in her third start of the year -- the above mentioned Black-Eyed Susan Stakes -- and rallied well to finish second despite a tough trip. Seeing that Pletcher won the Mother Goose last year with a filly coming off of a runner-up effort in the Black-Eyed Susan, I wouldn't be surprised if he can produce a similar result this year, especially with top jockey Ramon Dominguez in the saddle.
The last filly to discuss is the longshot Wildcat's Smile, a New York-bred filly that finished second to Disposablepleasure in the Demoiselle Stakes last year. She began 2012 at Aqueduct by winning a seven-furlong allowance race for state-breds before finishing a tiring third in the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes. She has trained well enough since then, and should appreciate the cutback to one-turn, but the distance of the Mother Goose may simply be a bit beyond her range.
My selections are:
1 Contested
2 Zo Impressive
3 Believe You Can
4 Disposablepleasure
These are admittedly uncreative selections, but I think that Believe You Can could find herself in the unenviable task of trying to put enough pressure on Contested while trying to save something for the homestretch. In her first start since that tough effort in the Kentucky Oaks, it wouldn't surprise me if she tires just a bit in the homestretch, allowing Zo Impressive to rally for the runner-up spot. But I am fairly confident that Contested will prove best yet again, seizing command of the division with another gate-to-wire victory.
Other Races of Note
At Betfair Hollywood Park . . .
The highlight of the card is the $150,000 Hollywood Oaks (gr. II), where grade I winners Killer Graces, Eden's Moon, and Willa B Awesome will square off at a mile and a sixteenth. Each has virtues. Killer Graces won her grade I -- the Hollywood Starlet Stakes -- over the Hollywood Park Cushion Track, whereas Willa B Awesome and Eden's Moon have both done their best running on the Santa Anita dirt. Willa B Awesome has beaten both Eden's Moon and Killer Graces in the past, and is in good form, but her best races have come over the Santa Anita dirt track. Eden's Moon is probably the quickest filly in the race, and is trained by the masterful Bob Baffert, but is coming off of a last-place finish in the Kentucky Oaks. Who you select is a matter of preference, but I won't be surprised to see Killer Graces in the winners circle following a return to her favorite racetrack. And if you like up-and-comers, don't count out Potesta, who broke her maiden by 11 1/2 lengths here at Hollywood last time out.
At Churchill Downs . . .
A pair of stakes races highlight the Saturday card, including the Debutante Stakes (gr. III) for two-year-old fillies. The morning line favorite is Blueeyesintherein, who broke her maiden in dominating fashion on May 31st, winning a 4-1/2 furlong maiden special weight by 3 3/4 lengths. The runner-up, Shesakitty, is also entered in this spot even though she has yet to win a race, probably because she overcame a poor start to rally strongly in the homestretch. The additional distance in the Debutante, coupled with a hopefully cleaner start, could help her chances. Other logical contenders are Richie'slilcowgirl, a first-time out winner from Arlington Park; Quiet Sucess, who broke her maiden at Churchill on May 2nd; and debut winner Floral Sky.
The other stakes race on the card is the seven-furlong Kelly's Landing Stakes, won two years ago by eventual grade I winner Here Comes Ben. This year's edition has drawn a field of nine, in which Golden Frontier and Cal Nation are the two favorites. The first-mentioned colt is very lightly raced, having only four starts on his record, but he could not have looked better winning a 6-1/2 furlong allowance race here at Churchill on May 24th by 11 1/2 lengths. His final time of 1:15.68 was highly impressive, and he looks like a future graded stakes winner. As for Cal Nation, he made headlines in the winter of 2011 when he broke his maiden by 7 3/4 lengths at Gulfstream Park, but he subsequently failed to live up to expectations, and only found the winner's circle once during the remainder of the year. However, he did look good in his 2012 debut last month, winning a six-furlong maiden special weight at Monmouth by a neck, and he is eligible to improve in his second start of the year.
One other horse worth mentioning is Noble's Promise, who won the grade I Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) back in 2009. Since then, he has become a capable sprinter, winning the Aristides Stakes (gr. III) here at Churchill last year and performing moderately well in a number of other stakes. However, his form this year has not been very good at all, for he has not managed to finish better than third in four starts, and failed to hit the board in two stakes attempts. Perhaps he can reach back into his past and pull out another high-class effort later this afternoon, but it seems that age is beginning to catch up to him.
At Monmouth Park . . .
Sophomore fillies on the turf comprise the feature race of the card, the $100,000 Boiling Springs Stakes (gr. III) at a mile and a sixteenth. Nine entered, but two scratches have reduced the field size to seven. The morning line favorite is Somali Lemonade, winner of the J P Morgan Chase Jessamine Stakes (gr. III) at Keeneland last fall. She's had a bit of trouble returning to form this year, as she could only manage a second in the Appalachian Stakes (gr. III) and a fourth in the Sands Point Stakes (gr. II), but this looks like an easy spot to get back on track, and she should have every chance at finding the winner's circle this time around.
Her main competition will likely come from Dancing Solo, a talented daughter of Giant's Causeway from the barn of Todd Pletcher. She enters this race off of an impressive victory in the Little Silver Stakes at Monmouth Park, in which she closed strongly to win by a length and a half. Time will tell if she is in the same class as Somali Lemonade, but I think she looks like a major contender.
Other major contenders include Zultanite, who finished five lengths in front of Somali Lemonade in the Sands Point Stakes; Glamour N Glory, the runner-up to Dancing Solo in the Little Silver Stakes; and Destiny's Child, a German-bred filly owned by Team Valor International that will be making her first start in the United States.
At Parx Racing . . .
A field of six, reduced from eight by two scratches, is set to start in the $150,000 Donald LeVine Memorial Handicap this afternoon. The morning line favorite is Golddigger's Boy, who has won five of his seven starts here at Parx, including last year's Donald LeVine. He's been in good form this year, and looks to have an excellent chance at adding another stakes victory to his record.
Toby's Corner may very well end up going off as the second choice, despite the fact that he has yet to win a race this year. Winner of the Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I) in 2011, he went to the sidelines with an injury shortly thereafter, returning to the races earlier this year to finish third in both the General George Handicap (gr. II) and New Orleans Handicap (gr. II) before finishing seventh of nine in the Pimlico Special Stakes (gr. III). If he can regain his 2011 form, he could be a serious threat from off the pace.
Another obvious contender is Sloane Ranger, who won an allowance optional claiming race last time out while defeating Golddigger's Boy. A repeat of that performance could be sufficient to secure him the victory. Also intriguing is Ponzi Scheme, winner of the Decathlon Stakes at Monmouth Park last time out. True, he didn't beat much that day after many of the runners were involved in an accident, but he's got class, and he should appreciate the seven-furlong distance of this race.
-Keelerman
BLACK CAVIAR WINS THE DIAMOND JUBILEE STAKES!
The undefeated Australian superstar Black Caviar brought her record to a flawless 22-for-22 with a dramatic victory in the $775,000 Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Eng-I) at Royal Ascot today, holding off late charges from Moonlight Cloud and Restiadargent to win the race by a head.
Ridden to victory by Luke Nolan, Black Caviar got off to an alert start from gate fifteen and quickly settled into the third position, just behind the pacesetters Soul and Bogart. Also racing close to the pace was Krypton Factor, while Moonlight Cloud, the second choice in the field of fourteen, was toward the rear of the pack racing in eighth or ninth.
Approaching the quarter pole, Nolan asked Black Caviar for run and his mare responded by taking over the lead and opening up a one-length advantage. She maintained this throughout much of the stretch, but was unable to really kick away from the field as she had in previous race.
Then the drama really began. At the sixteenth pole, Nolan misjudged the finish line, believing the race was over. For about fifty meters, he eased up on his mare, allowing Moonlight Cloud and Restiadargent to rally furiously along the inside. However, Nolan realized his mistake in time and urged his mount to the finish, and Black Caviar dug in to win by a head.
Trained by Peter Moody, Black Caviar is now expected to return to Australia and prepare for the Australian spring races.
-Keelerman
Ridden to victory by Luke Nolan, Black Caviar got off to an alert start from gate fifteen and quickly settled into the third position, just behind the pacesetters Soul and Bogart. Also racing close to the pace was Krypton Factor, while Moonlight Cloud, the second choice in the field of fourteen, was toward the rear of the pack racing in eighth or ninth.
Approaching the quarter pole, Nolan asked Black Caviar for run and his mare responded by taking over the lead and opening up a one-length advantage. She maintained this throughout much of the stretch, but was unable to really kick away from the field as she had in previous race.
Then the drama really began. At the sixteenth pole, Nolan misjudged the finish line, believing the race was over. For about fifty meters, he eased up on his mare, allowing Moonlight Cloud and Restiadargent to rally furiously along the inside. However, Nolan realized his mistake in time and urged his mount to the finish, and Black Caviar dug in to win by a head.
Trained by Peter Moody, Black Caviar is now expected to return to Australia and prepare for the Australian spring races.
-Keelerman
Friday, June 22, 2012
Diamond Jubilee Stakes Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the $775,000 Diamond Jubilee Stakes (gr. I), to be run on Saturday at Royal Ascot in England. The six-furlong turf sprint has drawn a very large field of fifteen, led by the undefeated Australian superstar Black Cavier.
1 Sirius Prospect
2 Genki
3 Hitchens
4 Krypton Factor
5 Moonlight Cloud
6 The Cheka
7 Es Que Love
8 Soul
9 Jimmy Styles
10 Pastoral Player
11 Restiadargent
12 Bogart
13 Society Rock
14 Royal Rock
15 Black Cavier
-Keelerman
1 Sirius Prospect
2 Genki
3 Hitchens
4 Krypton Factor
5 Moonlight Cloud
6 The Cheka
7 Es Que Love
8 Soul
9 Jimmy Styles
10 Pastoral Player
11 Restiadargent
12 Bogart
13 Society Rock
14 Royal Rock
15 Black Cavier
-Keelerman
THOMAS CHIPPENDALE WINS THE KING EDWARD VII STAKES!
Thomas Chippendale wore down stablemate Noble Mission to give trainer Henry Cecil a 1-2 sweep of the group II King Edward VII Stakes today at Royal Ascot in England.
Ridden to victory by Johnny Murtagh, Thomas Chippendale settled into the third position in the early stages of the twelve-furlong race, just behind heavily favored front-runner Astrology and pace-pressing Thought Worthy. Tucked in toward the inside in fourth was Noble Mission -- a half-brother to the European superstar Frankel -- with Initiator content to trail the field of five.
Ridden to victory by Johnny Murtagh, Thomas Chippendale settled into the third position in the early stages of the twelve-furlong race, just behind heavily favored front-runner Astrology and pace-pressing Thought Worthy. Tucked in toward the inside in fourth was Noble Mission -- a half-brother to the European superstar Frankel -- with Initiator content to trail the field of five.
Thursday, June 21, 2012
Queen's Plate Stakes Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the 153rd running of the $1,000,000 Queen's Plate Stakes, to be run on Sunday at Woodbine racecourse in Canada. The historic ten-furlong race for Canadian-bred three-year-olds has drawn a full field of fourteen, led by Marine Stakes winner Strait of Dover, Plate Trial Stakes winner River Rush, and the talented fillies Irish Mission and Dixie Strike.
1 River Rush
2 Peyton
3 Macho Whiskey
4 Strait of Dover
5 Classic Bryce
6 Wilcox
7 Golden Ridge
8 Ultimate Destiny
9 Colleen's Sailor
10 Dixie Strike
11 Making Amends
12 Big Creek
13 Washington Dash
14 Irish Mission
-Keelerman
1 River Rush
2 Peyton
3 Macho Whiskey
4 Strait of Dover
5 Classic Bryce
6 Wilcox
7 Golden Ridge
8 Ultimate Destiny
9 Colleen's Sailor
10 Dixie Strike
11 Making Amends
12 Big Creek
13 Washington Dash
14 Irish Mission
-Keelerman
Wednesday, June 20, 2012
Hollywood Oaks Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the $150,000 Hollywood Oaks (gr. II), to be run on Saturday at Hollywood Park. The 1 1/16th miles race for three-year-old fillies has drawn a talented field of eight, including grade I winners Killer Graces, Willa B Awesome, and Eden's Moon.
1 Willa B Awesome
2 Starlight Magic
3 Customer Base
4 Eden's Moon
5 Open Water
6 Potesta
7 Via Villaggio
8 Killer Graces
-Keelerman
1 Willa B Awesome
2 Starlight Magic
3 Customer Base
4 Eden's Moon
5 Open Water
6 Potesta
7 Via Villaggio
8 Killer Graces
-Keelerman
Mother Goose Stakes Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the $300,000 Mother Goose Stakes (gr. I), to be run at Belmont Park on Saturday. The 1 1/16th miles race for three-year-old fillies has drawn the two leaders of the division, Believe You Can and Contested, as well as the promising Zo Impressive and graded stakes winner Disposablepleasure.
1 Believe You Can
2 Contested
3 Disposablepleasure
4 Wildcat's Smile
5 Zo Impressive
-Keelerman
1 Believe You Can
2 Contested
3 Disposablepleasure
4 Wildcat's Smile
5 Zo Impressive
-Keelerman
SO YOU THINK WINS THE PRINCE OF WALES'S STAKES!
Favored So You Think burst clear of the field inside the final eighth of a mile to win the group I Prince of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot this afternoon.
Ridden to victory by Joseph O'Brien, So You Think settled just in behind the leaders early on as his pacemaker, Robin Hood, set a good pace for the ten-furlong distance. Tracking in second was the lone American hopeful, Big Blue Kitten, with Wigmore Hall also up close. Carlton House, the second choice in a field of eleven, was racing in mid-pack.
Robin Hood and Big Blue Kitten continued to lead until about two furlongs from home, but Carlton House burst past them with a daring burst of acceleration to seize command of the lead. He got the jump on So You Think, and appeared to be on his way to victory, but So You Think also accelerated sharply when asked for run, and wore down his rival to win the race in decisive fashion.
Farhh came on strongly under Frankie Dettori to finish third, just ahead of Reliable Man.
-Keelerman
Ridden to victory by Joseph O'Brien, So You Think settled just in behind the leaders early on as his pacemaker, Robin Hood, set a good pace for the ten-furlong distance. Tracking in second was the lone American hopeful, Big Blue Kitten, with Wigmore Hall also up close. Carlton House, the second choice in a field of eleven, was racing in mid-pack.
Robin Hood and Big Blue Kitten continued to lead until about two furlongs from home, but Carlton House burst past them with a daring burst of acceleration to seize command of the lead. He got the jump on So You Think, and appeared to be on his way to victory, but So You Think also accelerated sharply when asked for run, and wore down his rival to win the race in decisive fashion.
Farhh came on strongly under Frankie Dettori to finish third, just ahead of Reliable Man.
-Keelerman
Tuesday, June 19, 2012
FRANKEL WINS THE QUEEN ANNE STAKES!
Undefeated champion Frankel brought his record to a perfect 11-for-11 today with a dominating victory in the group I Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot in England.
Ridden to victory by Tom Queally, Frankel got off to a good start and settled into the fourth position early in a field of eleven, waiting patiently as his stablemate Bullet Train set a strong pace. Also up close was Execelebration.
The positions remained relatively unchanged until about three-eighths of a mile from the finish, when Frankel shifted to the outside for racing room and passed Bullet Train in a matter of strides. Excelebration tried to stay with him, but in the vicinity of the quarter pole, Queally asked hi mount for run, and Frankel responded with a burst of acceleration rarely seen in horse racing. In the blink of an eye, he was four lengths in front, then five, six, seven, and eventually eleven lengths by the time he crossed the finish line.
Excelebration finished a distant second, just holding off Side Glance for that spot. Indomito finished fourth.
-Keelerman
Ridden to victory by Tom Queally, Frankel got off to a good start and settled into the fourth position early in a field of eleven, waiting patiently as his stablemate Bullet Train set a strong pace. Also up close was Execelebration.
The positions remained relatively unchanged until about three-eighths of a mile from the finish, when Frankel shifted to the outside for racing room and passed Bullet Train in a matter of strides. Excelebration tried to stay with him, but in the vicinity of the quarter pole, Queally asked hi mount for run, and Frankel responded with a burst of acceleration rarely seen in horse racing. In the blink of an eye, he was four lengths in front, then five, six, seven, and eventually eleven lengths by the time he crossed the finish line.
Excelebration finished a distant second, just holding off Side Glance for that spot. Indomito finished fourth.
-Keelerman
Saturday, June 16, 2012
NECK 'N NECK WINS THE MATT WINN STAKES!
Neck 'n Neck blew past pace-setting Right to Vote and drew off powerfully in the Churchill Downs homestretch to win the $100,000 Matt Winn Stakes (gr. III) by all of five lengths.
Ridden to victory by Leandro Goncalves, Neck 'n Neck got off to an excellent start and settled into the fourth position early on as Neck 'n Neck set a moderate pace of :24.36 and :48.97. Master Rick was on the outside in second, followed by Macho Macho along the rail. Stealcase was the early trailer after checking off heels in the early stages of the race.
Right to Vote continued to show the way around the far turn, but was soon challenged by Master Rick and Neck 'n Neck, with the latter colt moving strongest of all. Entering the homestretch, Neck 'n Neck burst clear of the field, and finished up strongly under urging to win in decisive fashion, stopping the clock for a mile and a sixteenth in 1:43.72.
Stealcase rallied mildly on the outside to finish second, followed by Macho Macho, Right to Vote, and Master Rick. The winner is trained by Ian Wilkes.
-Keelerman
Ridden to victory by Leandro Goncalves, Neck 'n Neck got off to an excellent start and settled into the fourth position early on as Neck 'n Neck set a moderate pace of :24.36 and :48.97. Master Rick was on the outside in second, followed by Macho Macho along the rail. Stealcase was the early trailer after checking off heels in the early stages of the race.
Right to Vote continued to show the way around the far turn, but was soon challenged by Master Rick and Neck 'n Neck, with the latter colt moving strongest of all. Entering the homestretch, Neck 'n Neck burst clear of the field, and finished up strongly under urging to win in decisive fashion, stopping the clock for a mile and a sixteenth in 1:43.72.
Stealcase rallied mildly on the outside to finish second, followed by Macho Macho, Right to Vote, and Master Rick. The winner is trained by Ian Wilkes.
-Keelerman
BREEDERS' CUP COUNTDOWN -- June 16th, 2012
After six months of excitement and anticipation, the 2012 Triple Crown is over. While that might sound disappointing on the surface, it really isn't. All it really means it that it's time to start looking foward to the 29th running of the Breeders' Cup, which will be held at Santa Anita Park on November 2nd-3rd. There are plenty of exciting early prep races to be run this afternoon, led by the $400,000 Stephen Foster Handicap (gr. I) at Churchill Downs -- a "Win and You're In" for the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I). Let's take a look at who's running!
Stephen Foster Handicap (gr. I)
Nine furlongs on the Churchill Downs dirt track
Entries:
Note: Successful Dan is expected to scratch.
The morning line favorite at 8-5 is Wise Dan, and it certainly won't surprise me a bit if he ends up going off at lower than that. He's proven to be an extremely versatile sort during a career that has spanned fifteen starts, winning nine races on dirt, turf, and synthetic. He has only raced once this year, but that was an incredible performance in the Ben Ali Stakes (gr. III) at Keeneland, which he won by 10 1/2 lengths while breaking the track record. He earned an incredible Beyer speed of 117 for his efforts, and should only be sharper today. If you are wondering about his ability to transfer that form to dirt, just remember that he blew the doors off the likes of Mission Impazible, Flat Out, and Ruler On Ice in the Clark Handicap (gr. I) here at Churchill last fall. These facts, coupled with how well he has been training, makes him a solid favorite in a race full of good horses.
Second choice on the morning line at 4-1 is Alternation, who showed promise last year when winning the Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II) and finishing a close second in the Oklahoma Derby. But I don't think anyone could have imagined what a spectacular horse he would turn into this year. In 2012, he is undefeated in four starts, including victories in the Pimlico Special Handicap (gr. III) -- over Nehro and Mission Impazible -- and the Oaklawn Handicap (gr. II) over Ron the Greek. He can adept to any pace scenario, leading if the pace is slow and closing if it is fast, so as long as he doesn't get hung wide from post eight, he should have every opportunity to win the race turning for home.
Fort Larned and Ron the Greek both offer value at 5-1 and 6-1 on the morning line, respectively, and both have run exceptionally well this year. Fort Larned won the Skip Away Stakes (gr. III) in track-record time at Gulfstream Park two starts back, and backed up that effort with a close second to Successful Dan in the Alysheba Stakes (gr. III) last time out. Ron the Greek began the year with a runner-up effort in the Florida Sunshine Millions Classic, then shipped to California and won the Santa Anita Handicap (gr. I) by 3 1/2 lengths. Last time out, he could only manage a second-place finish behind Alternation in the Oaklawn Handicap (gr. II), but in that case, he was attempting to rally into a slow pace. With a quicker pace to run at today, he could rebound in good fashion, although this distance could be just a bit short for him.
This brings us to the question mark horse, Nates Mineshaft. When he runs his top race, he is brilliant. But sometimes, he doesn't. This year, he has won four of five starts, including dominating victories in the New Orleans Handicap (gr. II) and Lone Star Park Handicap (gr. III), for which he received Beyer speed figures of 113 and 107, respectively. In between those two victories, however, he finished sixth in the Alysheba Stakes (gr. II) here at Churchill, beaten over twenty lengths by Successful Dan and Fort Larned. That dismal effort could be explained by the fact that he was rated off the pace, or by a strong disdain for the Churchill main track. His connections have stated that he'll be sent to the lead today, so if that is the ticket to a top effort, then he could prove extremely tough to beat. On the other hand, if Alternation and/or Mission Impazible try to challenge him in the early stages, he may find himself with nothing left in the homestretch.
Speaking of Mission Impazible, he was beaten just a head in this race last year, and is back again to try and secure his first grade I victory. This admirable campaigner has had a busy career full of good efforts in top race, but has only ever won three races, those being the 2011 New Orleans Handicap (gr. II), the 2010 Louisiana Derby (gr. II), and a maiden special weight. But many of his losses have come in grade I stakes races while facing some of the best horses in the country. All told, he has finished second in races like the Donn Handicap (gr. I), Clark Handicap (gr. I), New Orleans Handicap (gr. II), and Mineshaft Handicap (gr. III), in addition to his runner-up effort in last year's Foster. His last race was not all that great, as he finished fourth in the Pimlico Special (gr. III) after rating off the pace, but it's worth noting that he has run well off of poor efforts in the past.
Nehro, who is 8-1 on the morning line, has had a career similar to Mission Impazible's, finishing second in numerous big races while never bringing home a top prize. In his entire career, Nehro has won just twice -- in a maiden special weight and an allowance optional claiming race. But he has finished second in the Kentucky Derby (gr. I), Arkansas Derby (gr. I), Louisiana Derby (gr. II), and Pimlico Special Handicap (gr. III), beaten a total of about 3 1/4 lengths between the four. A one-run type of horse, he'll be among the trailers in the early stages of the Stephen Foster, but if the pace is quick enough, he should be closing fastest of all at the finish.
The last horse to discuss is Rogue Romance, who is 30-1 on the morning line. He was a promising two-year-old in 2010, winning the Bourbon Stakes (gr. III) on the Keeneland turf and finishing a distant third to division champion Uncle Mo in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I). A foot injury limited his 2011 campaign to only one start, but he has come back strongly this year to stamp himself as a horse to watch as the year progresses. He began the year with an impressive three-length victory in an allowance optional claiming race, then finished a dismal last in the Ben Ali Stakes (gr. III) behind Wise Dan, although that poor performance was likely due to a disdain for Polytrack. He rebounded sharply to win an allowance optional claiming race at Churchill Downs by five lengths, signaling that he could be set to run a big race today at a huge price.
My selections are:
1 Wise Dan
2 Mission Impazible
3 Ron the Greek
4 Rogue Romance
Other Races to Watch
At Betfair Hollywood Park . . .
The Vanity Handicap (gr. I) for fillies and mares had originally drawn a terrific field of eight, led by Santa Margarita Handicap (gr. I) winner Include Me Out, two-time grade I winner Zazu, and the speedy front-runner Ellafitz. Unfortunately, minor illness and injury have caused both Zazu and Ellafitz to scratch, leaving Include Me Out as a huge favorite. Rock and Glory could potentially give her a run for her money, as she has won her last two starts by a combined 19 1/2 lengths, but she has never run in a stakes race, and this is a big step up in class.
Also on the Hollywood card are a pair of stakes races for two-year-olds -- the Cinderella Stakes for fillies, and the Willard L. Proctor Memorial Stakes for either gender. In the Proctor, Amarish is a heavy morning line favorite at 7-5 based off of his hugely impressive victory in a 4-1/2 furlong maiden special weight on May 26th. If he runs anywhere near as good today as he did then, he should win without difficulty.
The Cinderella Stakes is a bit more wide open, with seven horses at 6-1 or less on the morning line. There are plenty of talented horses to choose from, including impressive debut winners Unusual Way, Awe' Some Kitten, and Tilde. Awesome Annie also deserves respect based off of a pair of runner-up efforts to Unusual Way and Tilde, respectively, in her only two starts to date.
At Churchill Downs . . .
There are plenty of terrific undercard races to choose from on Stephen Foster day, led by the Fleur de Lis Handicap (gr. II) for fillies and mares. The heavy morning line favorite is Royal Delta, last year's champion three-year-old filly based off of impressive victories in the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (gr. I), Alabama Stakes (gr. I), and Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (gr. II). The only question today is whether or not she is fit enough to win this race in her first start since finishing ninth in the Dubai World Cup (UAE-I) against colts in March. Chances are she will win, but you might want to respect the chances of It's Tea Time. While she has spent the majority of her career racing on turf and synthetic, her dirt efforts have been very good as well, including a victory in the Lake Placid Stakes (gr. III) and a decent fourth in the 2010 Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic. I'm not saying she's going to defeat Royal Delta, but at 10-1, she might be worth considering for second or third.
At Colonial Downs . . .
The highlight of a quartet of stakes events is the $500,000 Colonial Turf Cup for three-year-olds and up. The nine-furlong turf event contains a number of talented turf runners, including Todd Pletcher's speedy Turbo Compressor, two-time graded stakes winner Smart Bid, 2011 Virginia Derby (gr. II) winner Air Support, the talented by somewhat inconsistent Casino Host, and last year's winner Rahystrada. One horse that could offer a price is Humble and Hungry, who is 10-1 on the morning line. Coming off of a second-place finish in the Dixie Stakes (gr. II), in which he rallied well into a moderate pace, I'm confident that he's sitting on another big effort.
Also on the Colonial Downs card is the Edward P. Evans Stakes (gr. III) for fillies and mares going nine furlongs on the turf. Pachattack, a versatile mare that finished third in last year's Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (gr. I), is the morning line favorite based off of a narrow victory in the Hillard Lyons Doubledogdare Stakes (gr. III) last time out. Other logical contenders are La Pernelle, an Irish-bred filly that has won her only U.S. start so far, and Snow Top Mountain, who won the Suwannee River Stakes (gr. III) three starts back.
At Delaware Park . . .
The nine-furlong Obeah Stakes (gr. III) for fillies and mares, a local prep for the $750,000 Delaware Handicap (gr. II) in July, originally drew a field of six, but the scratch of Pachattack to instead run in the Edward P. Evans Stakes (see above) has reducded the field to five. Tiz Miz Sue is the morning line favorite, but is unraced since finishing third in the Apple Blossom Handicap (gr. I) in April. A better bet might be Love and Pride, who has been very consistent this year, and was beaten just a head in the Allaire DuPont Distaff Stakes (gr. III) last time out. It should be a close race, but I give Love and Pride the edge.
-Keelerman
Stephen Foster Handicap (gr. I)
Nine furlongs on the Churchill Downs dirt track
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Nates Mineshaft | J. Campbell |
| 2 | Fort Larned | Julien Leparoux |
| 3 | Wise Dan | John Velazquez |
| 4 | Nehro | Corey Nakatani |
| 5 | Ron the Greek | Jose Lezcano |
| 6 | Rogue Romance | Manny Cruz |
| 7 | Mission Impazible | Javier Castellano |
| 8 | Alternation | Luis Quinonez |
| 9 | Successful Dan | John Velazquez |
Note: Successful Dan is expected to scratch.
The morning line favorite at 8-5 is Wise Dan, and it certainly won't surprise me a bit if he ends up going off at lower than that. He's proven to be an extremely versatile sort during a career that has spanned fifteen starts, winning nine races on dirt, turf, and synthetic. He has only raced once this year, but that was an incredible performance in the Ben Ali Stakes (gr. III) at Keeneland, which he won by 10 1/2 lengths while breaking the track record. He earned an incredible Beyer speed of 117 for his efforts, and should only be sharper today. If you are wondering about his ability to transfer that form to dirt, just remember that he blew the doors off the likes of Mission Impazible, Flat Out, and Ruler On Ice in the Clark Handicap (gr. I) here at Churchill last fall. These facts, coupled with how well he has been training, makes him a solid favorite in a race full of good horses.
Second choice on the morning line at 4-1 is Alternation, who showed promise last year when winning the Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II) and finishing a close second in the Oklahoma Derby. But I don't think anyone could have imagined what a spectacular horse he would turn into this year. In 2012, he is undefeated in four starts, including victories in the Pimlico Special Handicap (gr. III) -- over Nehro and Mission Impazible -- and the Oaklawn Handicap (gr. II) over Ron the Greek. He can adept to any pace scenario, leading if the pace is slow and closing if it is fast, so as long as he doesn't get hung wide from post eight, he should have every opportunity to win the race turning for home.
Fort Larned and Ron the Greek both offer value at 5-1 and 6-1 on the morning line, respectively, and both have run exceptionally well this year. Fort Larned won the Skip Away Stakes (gr. III) in track-record time at Gulfstream Park two starts back, and backed up that effort with a close second to Successful Dan in the Alysheba Stakes (gr. III) last time out. Ron the Greek began the year with a runner-up effort in the Florida Sunshine Millions Classic, then shipped to California and won the Santa Anita Handicap (gr. I) by 3 1/2 lengths. Last time out, he could only manage a second-place finish behind Alternation in the Oaklawn Handicap (gr. II), but in that case, he was attempting to rally into a slow pace. With a quicker pace to run at today, he could rebound in good fashion, although this distance could be just a bit short for him.
This brings us to the question mark horse, Nates Mineshaft. When he runs his top race, he is brilliant. But sometimes, he doesn't. This year, he has won four of five starts, including dominating victories in the New Orleans Handicap (gr. II) and Lone Star Park Handicap (gr. III), for which he received Beyer speed figures of 113 and 107, respectively. In between those two victories, however, he finished sixth in the Alysheba Stakes (gr. II) here at Churchill, beaten over twenty lengths by Successful Dan and Fort Larned. That dismal effort could be explained by the fact that he was rated off the pace, or by a strong disdain for the Churchill main track. His connections have stated that he'll be sent to the lead today, so if that is the ticket to a top effort, then he could prove extremely tough to beat. On the other hand, if Alternation and/or Mission Impazible try to challenge him in the early stages, he may find himself with nothing left in the homestretch.
Speaking of Mission Impazible, he was beaten just a head in this race last year, and is back again to try and secure his first grade I victory. This admirable campaigner has had a busy career full of good efforts in top race, but has only ever won three races, those being the 2011 New Orleans Handicap (gr. II), the 2010 Louisiana Derby (gr. II), and a maiden special weight. But many of his losses have come in grade I stakes races while facing some of the best horses in the country. All told, he has finished second in races like the Donn Handicap (gr. I), Clark Handicap (gr. I), New Orleans Handicap (gr. II), and Mineshaft Handicap (gr. III), in addition to his runner-up effort in last year's Foster. His last race was not all that great, as he finished fourth in the Pimlico Special (gr. III) after rating off the pace, but it's worth noting that he has run well off of poor efforts in the past.
Nehro, who is 8-1 on the morning line, has had a career similar to Mission Impazible's, finishing second in numerous big races while never bringing home a top prize. In his entire career, Nehro has won just twice -- in a maiden special weight and an allowance optional claiming race. But he has finished second in the Kentucky Derby (gr. I), Arkansas Derby (gr. I), Louisiana Derby (gr. II), and Pimlico Special Handicap (gr. III), beaten a total of about 3 1/4 lengths between the four. A one-run type of horse, he'll be among the trailers in the early stages of the Stephen Foster, but if the pace is quick enough, he should be closing fastest of all at the finish.
The last horse to discuss is Rogue Romance, who is 30-1 on the morning line. He was a promising two-year-old in 2010, winning the Bourbon Stakes (gr. III) on the Keeneland turf and finishing a distant third to division champion Uncle Mo in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I). A foot injury limited his 2011 campaign to only one start, but he has come back strongly this year to stamp himself as a horse to watch as the year progresses. He began the year with an impressive three-length victory in an allowance optional claiming race, then finished a dismal last in the Ben Ali Stakes (gr. III) behind Wise Dan, although that poor performance was likely due to a disdain for Polytrack. He rebounded sharply to win an allowance optional claiming race at Churchill Downs by five lengths, signaling that he could be set to run a big race today at a huge price.
My selections are:
1 Wise Dan
2 Mission Impazible
3 Ron the Greek
4 Rogue Romance
Other Races to Watch
At Betfair Hollywood Park . . .
The Vanity Handicap (gr. I) for fillies and mares had originally drawn a terrific field of eight, led by Santa Margarita Handicap (gr. I) winner Include Me Out, two-time grade I winner Zazu, and the speedy front-runner Ellafitz. Unfortunately, minor illness and injury have caused both Zazu and Ellafitz to scratch, leaving Include Me Out as a huge favorite. Rock and Glory could potentially give her a run for her money, as she has won her last two starts by a combined 19 1/2 lengths, but she has never run in a stakes race, and this is a big step up in class.
Also on the Hollywood card are a pair of stakes races for two-year-olds -- the Cinderella Stakes for fillies, and the Willard L. Proctor Memorial Stakes for either gender. In the Proctor, Amarish is a heavy morning line favorite at 7-5 based off of his hugely impressive victory in a 4-1/2 furlong maiden special weight on May 26th. If he runs anywhere near as good today as he did then, he should win without difficulty.
The Cinderella Stakes is a bit more wide open, with seven horses at 6-1 or less on the morning line. There are plenty of talented horses to choose from, including impressive debut winners Unusual Way, Awe' Some Kitten, and Tilde. Awesome Annie also deserves respect based off of a pair of runner-up efforts to Unusual Way and Tilde, respectively, in her only two starts to date.
At Churchill Downs . . .
There are plenty of terrific undercard races to choose from on Stephen Foster day, led by the Fleur de Lis Handicap (gr. II) for fillies and mares. The heavy morning line favorite is Royal Delta, last year's champion three-year-old filly based off of impressive victories in the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (gr. I), Alabama Stakes (gr. I), and Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (gr. II). The only question today is whether or not she is fit enough to win this race in her first start since finishing ninth in the Dubai World Cup (UAE-I) against colts in March. Chances are she will win, but you might want to respect the chances of It's Tea Time. While she has spent the majority of her career racing on turf and synthetic, her dirt efforts have been very good as well, including a victory in the Lake Placid Stakes (gr. III) and a decent fourth in the 2010 Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic. I'm not saying she's going to defeat Royal Delta, but at 10-1, she might be worth considering for second or third.
At Colonial Downs . . .
The highlight of a quartet of stakes events is the $500,000 Colonial Turf Cup for three-year-olds and up. The nine-furlong turf event contains a number of talented turf runners, including Todd Pletcher's speedy Turbo Compressor, two-time graded stakes winner Smart Bid, 2011 Virginia Derby (gr. II) winner Air Support, the talented by somewhat inconsistent Casino Host, and last year's winner Rahystrada. One horse that could offer a price is Humble and Hungry, who is 10-1 on the morning line. Coming off of a second-place finish in the Dixie Stakes (gr. II), in which he rallied well into a moderate pace, I'm confident that he's sitting on another big effort.
Also on the Colonial Downs card is the Edward P. Evans Stakes (gr. III) for fillies and mares going nine furlongs on the turf. Pachattack, a versatile mare that finished third in last year's Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (gr. I), is the morning line favorite based off of a narrow victory in the Hillard Lyons Doubledogdare Stakes (gr. III) last time out. Other logical contenders are La Pernelle, an Irish-bred filly that has won her only U.S. start so far, and Snow Top Mountain, who won the Suwannee River Stakes (gr. III) three starts back.
At Delaware Park . . .
The nine-furlong Obeah Stakes (gr. III) for fillies and mares, a local prep for the $750,000 Delaware Handicap (gr. II) in July, originally drew a field of six, but the scratch of Pachattack to instead run in the Edward P. Evans Stakes (see above) has reducded the field to five. Tiz Miz Sue is the morning line favorite, but is unraced since finishing third in the Apple Blossom Handicap (gr. I) in April. A better bet might be Love and Pride, who has been very consistent this year, and was beaten just a head in the Allaire DuPont Distaff Stakes (gr. III) last time out. It should be a close race, but I give Love and Pride the edge.
-Keelerman
Friday, June 15, 2012
2012 TRIPLE CROWN RECAP
On November 5th, 2011, a colt by Dixie Union out of the Gone West mare Tempo rallied strongly in the Churchill Downs homestretch to finish second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), beaten just a head despite racing wide every step of the way. This performance, coupled with his dominating victories in the Champagne Stakes (gr. II) and Saratoga Special Stakes (gr. II) earlier in the year, made him the heavy favorite for 2012 Kentucky Derby. In fact, there were some that believed the massive bay colt had the necassary talent to become racing's twelfth Triple Crown winner; the first since Affirmed in 1978.
Wednesday, June 13, 2012
Vanity Handicap Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the $250,000 Vanity Handicap (gr. I), to be run on Saturday at Betfair Hollywood Park. The prestigious nine-furlong race for fillies and mares has drawn an exceptional field of eight, including two-time grade I winner Zazu, the rapidly-improving Include Me Out, and grade II stakes winner Ellafitz.
1 Rock and Glory
2 Include Me Out
3 Zazu
4 Atlantic Swing
5 Love Theway Youare
6 Zafeen's Pearl
7 Caelis
8 Ellafitz
-Keelerman
1 Rock and Glory
2 Include Me Out
3 Zazu
4 Atlantic Swing
5 Love Theway Youare
6 Zafeen's Pearl
7 Caelis
8 Ellafitz
-Keelerman
Matt Winn Stakes Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the $100,000 Matt Winn Stakes (gr. III), to be run on Saturday at Churchill Downs. The 1 1/16th miles race for three-year-olds has drawn a very small but promising field of five, including the grade I-placed Right to Vote, Derby Trial Stakes (gr. III) third-place finisher Stealcase, and the up-and-coming Macho Macho.
1 Macho Macho
2 Stealcase
3 Right to Vote
4 Neck 'n Neck
5 Master Rick
-Keelerman
1 Macho Macho
2 Stealcase
3 Right to Vote
4 Neck 'n Neck
5 Master Rick
-Keelerman
Fleur de Lis Handicap Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the $150,000 Fleur de Lis Handicap (gr. II), to be run on Saturday at Churchill Downs. The nine-furlong race for fillies and mares has drawn a small but talented field of six, including last year's Eclipse champion three-year-old filly Royal Delta and 2011 Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) runner-up St. John's River.
1 St. John's River
2 Sterling Madame
3 Afleeting Lady
4 Distorted Love
5 Royal Delta
6 It's Tea Time
-Keelerman
1 St. John's River
2 Sterling Madame
3 Afleeting Lady
4 Distorted Love
5 Royal Delta
6 It's Tea Time
-Keelerman
Stephen Foster Handicap Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the $400,000 Stephen Foster Handicap (gr. I), to be run on Saturday at Churchill Downs. The prestigious nine-furlong is a Breeders' Cup "Win and You're In" for the $5,000,000 Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I), and has thus drawn a very high quality field of nine, led by Clark Handicap (gr. I) winner Wise Dan, Santa Anita Handicap (gr. I) winner Ron the Greek, and Oaklawn Handicap (gr. II) winner Alternation.
1 Nates Mineshaft
2 Fort Larned
3 Wise Dan
4 Nehro
5 Ron the Greek
6 Rogue Romance
7 Mission Impazible
8 Alternation
9 Successful Dan
-Keelerman
1 Nates Mineshaft
2 Fort Larned
3 Wise Dan
4 Nehro
5 Ron the Greek
6 Rogue Romance
7 Mission Impazible
8 Alternation
9 Successful Dan
-Keelerman
Saturday, June 09, 2012
UNION RAGS WINS THE BELMONT STAKES!
Union Rags, under new jockey John Velazquez, proved that he is the superstar everyone thought he was during the winter when he rallied up the fence to win the $1,000,000 Belmont Stakes (gr. I) by a head.
Coming off of a seventh-place finish in the Kentucky Derby, in which he encountered a great deal of trouble, Union Rags was sent off as the second choice at 5-2 in a field of eleven, reduced from twelve by the scratch of I'll Have Another yesterday morning.
In the Kentucky Derby, Union Rags' trouble was due almost entirely to a sluggish start that left him too far off of the pace. In the Belmont Stakes, Union Rags broke much quicker before settling comfortably into the fifth position, about three to four lengths off of a slow early pace set by Paynter. The latter colt, under Mike Smith, quickly cleared the field after breaking from gate nine and held a one-length lead over Optimizer and Unstoppable U in the early stages of the race. My Adonis was racing in fourth, with Atigun, Five Sixteen, and Guyana Star Dweej racing in mid-pack. Ravelo's Boy, Dullahan, and Street Life were the early trailers.
Through very moderate fractions of :49.23, 1:14.72, and 1:38.85, Paynter continued to show the way while facing very little pressure. Rounding the far turn, he turned back a mild challenge from longshot Unstoppable U to briefly take a clear advantage, but Atigun was making a bold run on the far outside to reach contention, and Union Rags was rallying strongly along the rail. At the top of the stretch, it appeared as though any of those three could be the winner, but in deep stretch, Union Rags and Paynter pulled away ever so slightly from Atigun, with Union Rags triumphing by a head under a brilliant ride.
The final time for the twelve-furlong distance was 2:30.42. Atigun held on to finish third, almost six lengths clear of Street Life. Dullahan, the mild favorite at 5-2, failed to fire and finished seventh.
The winner is trained by Michael Matz and owned by Chadds Ford Stable.
-Keelerman
Coming off of a seventh-place finish in the Kentucky Derby, in which he encountered a great deal of trouble, Union Rags was sent off as the second choice at 5-2 in a field of eleven, reduced from twelve by the scratch of I'll Have Another yesterday morning.
In the Kentucky Derby, Union Rags' trouble was due almost entirely to a sluggish start that left him too far off of the pace. In the Belmont Stakes, Union Rags broke much quicker before settling comfortably into the fifth position, about three to four lengths off of a slow early pace set by Paynter. The latter colt, under Mike Smith, quickly cleared the field after breaking from gate nine and held a one-length lead over Optimizer and Unstoppable U in the early stages of the race. My Adonis was racing in fourth, with Atigun, Five Sixteen, and Guyana Star Dweej racing in mid-pack. Ravelo's Boy, Dullahan, and Street Life were the early trailers.
Through very moderate fractions of :49.23, 1:14.72, and 1:38.85, Paynter continued to show the way while facing very little pressure. Rounding the far turn, he turned back a mild challenge from longshot Unstoppable U to briefly take a clear advantage, but Atigun was making a bold run on the far outside to reach contention, and Union Rags was rallying strongly along the rail. At the top of the stretch, it appeared as though any of those three could be the winner, but in deep stretch, Union Rags and Paynter pulled away ever so slightly from Atigun, with Union Rags triumphing by a head under a brilliant ride.
The final time for the twelve-furlong distance was 2:30.42. Atigun held on to finish third, almost six lengths clear of Street Life. Dullahan, the mild favorite at 5-2, failed to fire and finished seventh.
The winner is trained by Michael Matz and owned by Chadds Ford Stable.
-Keelerman
2012 Belmont Stakes Update #5
Here are the current Belmont Stakes odd, as of 6:07 Eastern Time.
1 Street Life 9-1
2 Unstoppable U 10-1
3 Union Rags 5-2
4 Atigun 19-1
5 Dullahan 5-2
6 Ravelo's Boy 24-1
7 Five Sixteen 16-1
8 Guyana Star Dweej 20-1
9 Paynter 9-2
10 Optimizer 12-1
11 I'll Have Another (Scratched)
12 My Adonis 19-1
While Union Rags and Dullahan are both 5-2, but Union Rags is the slightest of favorites.
-Keelerman
1 Street Life 9-1
2 Unstoppable U 10-1
3 Union Rags 5-2
4 Atigun 19-1
5 Dullahan 5-2
6 Ravelo's Boy 24-1
7 Five Sixteen 16-1
8 Guyana Star Dweej 20-1
9 Paynter 9-2
10 Optimizer 12-1
11 I'll Have Another (Scratched)
12 My Adonis 19-1
While Union Rags and Dullahan are both 5-2, but Union Rags is the slightest of favorites.
-Keelerman
DESERT BLANC WINS THE MANHATTAN HANDICAP!
Desert Blanc rallied strongly in between horses to secure a narrow victory in the $500,000 Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap (gr. I) this afternoon at Belmont Park.
Ridden to victory by Ramon Dominguez, Desert Blanc settled right in behind the leaders early on as Hudson Steele set an uncontested pace of :24.62 and :49.42. Papaw Bodie was right behind in second, followed closely by Brilliant Speed on the outside and Desert Blanc on the inside. Omayad, Al Khali, and Boisterous were the early trailers.
Rounding the far turn, Hudston Steele continued to lead the way through a mile in 1:36.80 before kicking away from the field turning for home. In deep stretch, he appeared capable of winning the race in wire-to-wire fashion, but Desert Blanc and Desert Blanc both closed furiously in the final sixteenth of a mile to finish 1-2, separated by a mere nose.
Boisterous came on strongly to finished third, a little more than a length behind the first two finishers, while Hudson Steele held on to fourth place. The final time was a quick 1:59.65.
The winner is trained by Chad Brown, who will saddle Street Life in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) later this afternoon.
-Keelerman
Ridden to victory by Ramon Dominguez, Desert Blanc settled right in behind the leaders early on as Hudson Steele set an uncontested pace of :24.62 and :49.42. Papaw Bodie was right behind in second, followed closely by Brilliant Speed on the outside and Desert Blanc on the inside. Omayad, Al Khali, and Boisterous were the early trailers.
Rounding the far turn, Hudston Steele continued to lead the way through a mile in 1:36.80 before kicking away from the field turning for home. In deep stretch, he appeared capable of winning the race in wire-to-wire fashion, but Desert Blanc and Desert Blanc both closed furiously in the final sixteenth of a mile to finish 1-2, separated by a mere nose.
Boisterous came on strongly to finished third, a little more than a length behind the first two finishers, while Hudson Steele held on to fourth place. The final time was a quick 1:59.65.
The winner is trained by Chad Brown, who will saddle Street Life in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) later this afternoon.
-Keelerman
TRINNIBERG WINS THE WOODY STEPHENS STAKES!
Trinniberg rebounded sharply from his poor showing in the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) last month to win the $400,000 Woody Stephens Stakes (gr. I) this afternoon at Belmont Park by about two lengths.
Ridden to victory by Willie Martinez, Trinniberg bounded out of the starting gate and quickly took the lead, setting fractions of :22.30 and :44.73 while being pressed by Currency Swap. Il Villano was racing in third toward the inside, followed closely by Laurie's Rocket and Bourbon Courage.
Rounding the turn, Trinniberg and Currency Swap began to pull away from the field just a bit, and entering the homestretch, those two really began to open up on the field, pulling away strongly while dueling with each other for the victory. At the eighth pole, it appeared as though either could win, but Trinniberg gamely turned back his rival to win in good fashion, stopping the clock for seven furlongs in 1:22.26.
Il Villano held on well to finish third, while Hardened Wildcat rounded out the superfecta.
-Keelerman
Ridden to victory by Willie Martinez, Trinniberg bounded out of the starting gate and quickly took the lead, setting fractions of :22.30 and :44.73 while being pressed by Currency Swap. Il Villano was racing in third toward the inside, followed closely by Laurie's Rocket and Bourbon Courage.
Rounding the turn, Trinniberg and Currency Swap began to pull away from the field just a bit, and entering the homestretch, those two really began to open up on the field, pulling away strongly while dueling with each other for the victory. At the eighth pole, it appeared as though either could win, but Trinniberg gamely turned back his rival to win in good fashion, stopping the clock for seven furlongs in 1:22.26.
Il Villano held on well to finish third, while Hardened Wildcat rounded out the superfecta.
-Keelerman
TAPITSFLY WINS THE JUST A GAME HANDICAP!
Tapitsfly seized command of the early lead and never relinquished it in the $500,000 Just a Game Handicap (gr. I), easily holding off a late bid from Winter Memories to secure her first grade I victory.
Ridden to victory by Ramon Dominguez, Tapitsfly got off to an excellent start and went straight to the front, setting fractions of :23.47 and :46.44 while leading by about a length over Wallis. Dancinginherdreams was also up close, while even-money favorite Winter Memories was content to race at the rear of the field early on.
Rounding the far turn, Tapitsfly kicked on for home, leaving Wallis and Dancinginherdreams in her dust as she opened up a clear advantage. Winter Memories attempted to rally down the center of the course, but was unable to make up sufficient ground on the leader, who coasted home pretty much unchallenged to complete the one-mile turf race in the brilliant time of 1:32.34.
Hungry Island rallied to finish third, followed by Up In Time. The winner is trained by Dale Romans and owned by Frank Jones, Jr.
-Keelerman
Ridden to victory by Ramon Dominguez, Tapitsfly got off to an excellent start and went straight to the front, setting fractions of :23.47 and :46.44 while leading by about a length over Wallis. Dancinginherdreams was also up close, while even-money favorite Winter Memories was content to race at the rear of the field early on.
Rounding the far turn, Tapitsfly kicked on for home, leaving Wallis and Dancinginherdreams in her dust as she opened up a clear advantage. Winter Memories attempted to rally down the center of the course, but was unable to make up sufficient ground on the leader, who coasted home pretty much unchallenged to complete the one-mile turf race in the brilliant time of 1:32.34.
Hungry Island rallied to finish third, followed by Up In Time. The winner is trained by Dale Romans and owned by Frank Jones, Jr.
-Keelerman
CAIXA ELETRONCIA WINS THE TRUE NORTH HANDICAP!
Caixa Eletronica demonstrated a tremendous burst of speed in the final sixteenth of a mile to win the $400,000 True North Handicap (gr. II) by about a neck.
Ridden to victory by Javier Castellano, Caixa Eletronica settled well off of the pace early on as Pacific Ocean, Giant Ryan, Crossbow, and Justin Phillip battled for the early lead through an opening quarter in :21.80 and a half-mile in :44.58.
Entering the homestretch, Justin Phillip burst clear of his rivals and appeared to be on his way to victory. However, his early exertions caught up with him in the final strides, as he was unable to withstand the run of Caixa Eletronica, who rallied at an unbelievable speed to secure the victory. The final time was 1:09.52.
Justin Phillip finished much the best of the rest, while Smiling Tiger and Hamazing Destiny rounded out the superfecta. The race was marred, however, by the injury of Giant Ryan, who broke down in the homestretch. I have not yet heard the details of the accident, but will post an update as soon as I hear more.
-Keelerman
Ridden to victory by Javier Castellano, Caixa Eletronica settled well off of the pace early on as Pacific Ocean, Giant Ryan, Crossbow, and Justin Phillip battled for the early lead through an opening quarter in :21.80 and a half-mile in :44.58.
Entering the homestretch, Justin Phillip burst clear of his rivals and appeared to be on his way to victory. However, his early exertions caught up with him in the final strides, as he was unable to withstand the run of Caixa Eletronica, who rallied at an unbelievable speed to secure the victory. The final time was 1:09.52.
Justin Phillip finished much the best of the rest, while Smiling Tiger and Hamazing Destiny rounded out the superfecta. The race was marred, however, by the injury of Giant Ryan, who broke down in the homestretch. I have not yet heard the details of the accident, but will post an update as soon as I hear more.
-Keelerman
2012 Belmont Stakes Update #4
The first stakes race of the day at Belmont Park was run just a few minutes ago, that being the 1 1/16th miles Easy Goer Stakes. I no longer believe that there is an overwhelming track bias, for the winner of this race was Teeth of the Dog, who rallied from well off of the pace to win by about four lengths. The final time was a fairly sharp 1:42.84.
Politicallycorrect did hang on well to finish third after pressing the pace, but if a true track bias were affecting the results of the races, he would have held on better. Furthermore, 25-1 shot Fast Falcon was able to rally from well behind also to finish second. In conclusion, I don't think there's a bias at this time.
The next race on the card is the six-furlong True North Handicap (gr. II) for three-year-olds and up. The early wagering favorite is Royal Currier, a consistent hose that, on occasion, has turned in huge speed figures. However, he has never succeeded in winning a graded stakes race.
Other logical contenders are the multiple greade I winner Smiling Tiger, the millionaire Caixa Eletroncia, and 2011 Vosburgh (gr. I) winner Giant Ryan.
-Keelerman
Politicallycorrect did hang on well to finish third after pressing the pace, but if a true track bias were affecting the results of the races, he would have held on better. Furthermore, 25-1 shot Fast Falcon was able to rally from well behind also to finish second. In conclusion, I don't think there's a bias at this time.
The next race on the card is the six-furlong True North Handicap (gr. II) for three-year-olds and up. The early wagering favorite is Royal Currier, a consistent hose that, on occasion, has turned in huge speed figures. However, he has never succeeded in winning a graded stakes race.
Other logical contenders are the multiple greade I winner Smiling Tiger, the millionaire Caixa Eletroncia, and 2011 Vosburgh (gr. I) winner Giant Ryan.
-Keelerman
2012 Belmont Stakes Update #3
The second main track race of the day is in the history books, and while the speed bias may not be quite as dominate as I thought after the first race, it still does appear to be affecting the results of the races.
In the one-mile allowance race for three-year-olds and up, Good Law, Jeter, and Mineswept were the early pacesetters, with Diamond District right behind in fourth. Those four opened up quite a lead over the rest of the field as they rounded the turn, and entering the homestretch, Mineswept blew open the race with a burst of acceleration that left his fellow pacesetters far behind. Good Law and Jeter appeared to be on their way to terrible finishes -- a result no doubt due to the hot pace of :22.89 and :45.99 that they set -- but somehow, it took the closers forever to pick them off, and Good Law did manage to hang on for fourth.
So in the end, it was Mineswept in front by two while stopping the clock in 1:36.59, while Live for Today and Overextended rallied mildly from off the pace to round out the trifecta.
-Keelerman
In the one-mile allowance race for three-year-olds and up, Good Law, Jeter, and Mineswept were the early pacesetters, with Diamond District right behind in fourth. Those four opened up quite a lead over the rest of the field as they rounded the turn, and entering the homestretch, Mineswept blew open the race with a burst of acceleration that left his fellow pacesetters far behind. Good Law and Jeter appeared to be on their way to terrible finishes -- a result no doubt due to the hot pace of :22.89 and :45.99 that they set -- but somehow, it took the closers forever to pick them off, and Good Law did manage to hang on for fourth.
So in the end, it was Mineswept in front by two while stopping the clock in 1:36.59, while Live for Today and Overextended rallied mildly from off the pace to round out the trifecta.
-Keelerman
2012 Belmont Stakes Update #2
Can anyone say speed bias?
Perhaps it's too early to determine for sure whether or not a speed bias is affecting the main track at Belmont today, but after watching Tiz Yankee, Love to Run, and Wild Target run 1-2-3 almost all the way around the racetrack in the first dirt race of the afternoon, I think the evidence clearly points toward it. While Love to Run did succeed in rallying from second to secure the victory -- he tracked Tiz Yankee throughout the entire race and wore him down right at the finish -- horses like Escape Artist and Reflection completely stalled in the homestretch after making bold runs around the turn.
We'll get another opportunity to see if a bias exists in the next race, when a field of nine will head to post for a main track allowance race. If speed dominates again, you might want to start thinking about Paynter -- or even Unstoppable U and My Adonis -- in the Belmont Stakes.
-Keelerman
Perhaps it's too early to determine for sure whether or not a speed bias is affecting the main track at Belmont today, but after watching Tiz Yankee, Love to Run, and Wild Target run 1-2-3 almost all the way around the racetrack in the first dirt race of the afternoon, I think the evidence clearly points toward it. While Love to Run did succeed in rallying from second to secure the victory -- he tracked Tiz Yankee throughout the entire race and wore him down right at the finish -- horses like Escape Artist and Reflection completely stalled in the homestretch after making bold runs around the turn.
We'll get another opportunity to see if a bias exists in the next race, when a field of nine will head to post for a main track allowance race. If speed dominates again, you might want to start thinking about Paynter -- or even Unstoppable U and My Adonis -- in the Belmont Stakes.
-Keelerman
2012 Belmont Stakes Update #1
Happy Belmont Stakes Day 2012 everyone! While the 144th running the the historic twelve-furlong classic did lose much of its luster yesterday morning when Kentucky Derby/Preakness winner I'll Have Another was scratched, there are still eleven promising three-year-olds still entered to race, including Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) winner Dullahan and Champagne Stakes (gr. I) winner Union Rags. In addition, there is a terrific set of supporting stakes races scheduled to be run on the undercard, including a pair of grade I events on the turf.
Friday, June 08, 2012
BELMONT STAKES SELECTIONS AND ANALYSIS
Words cannot describe the sadness I felt when informed that I'll Have Another had scratched from the Belmont Stakes. After weeks of anticipation, wondering whether or not he would join the likes of Secretariat, Count Fleet, and Citation as Triple Crown winners, it was a stunning blow to learn of his tendon injury and subsequent retirement. But as the saying goes, the show must go on, and the time has come to take a look at what remains of the Belmont Stakes and make our selections.
Belmont Stakes (gr. I)
Twelve furlongs on the Belmont Park dirt track
Entries:
As I did for the Derby and the Preakness, I shall break the field down into three groups: "Unlikely Contenders," "Medium Contenders," and "Win Contenders." Enjoy!
UNLIKELY CONTENDERS
#2 UNSTOPPABLE U - He is undefeated, but with only two starts under his belt, this race is a huge step up in class. A front-running son of Exchange Rate from the barn of Kenny McPeek -- who pulled off a 70-1 upset in the Belmont with Sarava in 2002 -- Unstoppable U clearly has a bright future, but the fact that he is stretching out a full half-mile farther than he has ever run -- in addition to trying two turns for the first time -- makes him one of the longer shots on this race. On the other hand, he has been training well, and he should be able to work out a good trip on the front end, so it might be wise to not completely toss him from consideration.
#7 FIVE SIXTEEN - He's got a strong enough pedigree for this distance, being a son of the exceptional stayer Invasor, but his only victory from six starts came in a nine-furlong maiden special weight, in which the final time was 1:55 flat. That was two starts back; his most recent race was a nine-furlong allowance race against older horses in which he finished a well-beaten fourth. Hard to make a case for him in this tough spot, but weirder things have happened -- Da' Tara comes to mind! :)
#8 GUYANA STAR DWEEJ - This heavily-raced colt started nine times between November 26th and April 27th, claiming one victory and a quintet of seconds in the process. While he seems to be a nice enough colt, he was soundly beaten by Unstoppable U last time out, and would appear to be overmatched in this spot. On the other hand, his pedigree seems to say that he'll enjoy this distance as well as any other, so maybe the distance will help his chances.
MEDIUM CONTENDERS
#1 STREET LIFE - This promising son of Street Sense possesses quite the late kick, which he demonstrated when breaking his maiden and subsequently claiming the Broad Brush Stakes. He followed up those efforts with a disappointing effort in the Wood Memorial (gr. I), then rebounded to finish a strong third in the Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II) here at Belmont Park. The only concern here is that such deep closers rarely win the Belmont, and while he is more than capable of securing a major piece of the purse, he may find himself with too much to do when the real running begins.
#6 RAVELO'S BOY - Most people are tossing this colt from consideration, mainly because he has yet to crack the trifecta in a stakes and still has only two victories from thirteen starts. But I've found a couple of reasons to like his chances. After all, he did emerge from his fifth-place effort in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) with a minor injury, and he has been training unbelievably well over the deep Calder main track. Perhaps he won't win, but don't be surprised if this well-bred colt outruns his odds.
#10 OPTIMIZER - While he has only a single victory from eleven starts, you can't knock this colt's durability. After all, he has made ten consecutive starts in stakes races, which includes solid efforts in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I), Rebel Stakes (gr. II), and With Anticipation Stakes (gr. II) -- on three different surfaces! It's hard to overlook the fact that he has been beaten a combined 48 lengths in his last three starts, but he's beautifully bred for twelve furlongs, and his best effort would make him competitive here. Isn't it about time that trainer D. Wayne Lukas won another Triple Crown race?
#12 MY ADONIS - This last-minute entrant had a legitimate excuse last time out -- the fact that he shipped from New Jersey to Kentucky to Maryland in the span of a few days -- and has enough back class to warrant consideration. He did finish a strong second in the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) in March, and coupled with his bullet five-furlong breeze on May 27th, you can make a case that this speedy colt could be a contender. His connections won this race last year with a 24-1 in Ruler On Ice, and while this colt does have to overcome the far outside post position, the guidance of top jockey Ramon Dominguez should make his task easier.
WIN CONTENDERS
#3 UNION RAGS - Some will argue that his Beyer speed figures have not increased from last year to this year, but the fact is, the poor trips he has received in his last two starts really didn't give him an opportunity to earn big figures. This colt is a long-striding type whose biggest weapon is his high cruising speed -- the ability to lope along at a fast pace without expanding too much energy. He simply doesn't have the acceleration to wait behind horses and burst past them in the homestretch. Nor does he have the ability to muster a tremendous late run from the back of the pack. What this colt needs is an outside trip, which will allow him to stretch his legs and make a move when he wants to. This won't be extremely easy to get while starting from post three, but with John Velazquez in the saddle for the first time, I fully expect him to accomplish it. From there, it's a matter of whether his pedigree can carry him a mile and a half -- which is certainly debatable.
#4 ATIGUN - Perhaps I'm crazy for including this horse among the win contenders, but year after year, we watch huge longshots triumph in the Belmont, and of the longshots, I think this colt is the best one. True, he was soundly beaten in a pair of Oaklawn stakes races during the spring, but he rebounded nicely to win a 1 1/16th miles allowance race last time out. He's got a strong enough pedigree to suggest that he can handle this distance, and with Julien Leparoux in the saddle for trainer Kenny McPeek, I can see him working out a mid-pack trip with a strong finish in the homestretch. Whether he is good enough to win remains to be seen, but if he does, you heard it here first . . . :)
#5 DULLAHAN - With the scratch of I'll Have Another, Dullahan has assumed the role of the favorite. His credentials are strong. He finished third in the Derby, and probably would have won with a better trip. He has been training phenomenally since then. He has top Belmont park jockey Javier Castellano in the saddle. He can't lose, right? While I certainly won't be surprised at all if he wins, I'm going to take a stand against him simply because of his running. Deep closers like Dullahan rarely win the Belmont, for reasons described above. Perhaps his brilliant half-mile drill on June 3rd is a sign that he will try and stay a bit closer to the pace than usual, but chances are, he will be well behind the leaders early on. Another reason I'm leaning toward other horses is the fact that his late charge in the Derby may have been partly an illusion. Many times, we have seen horses closer from impossibly far back in the Kentucky Derby to secure a major piece of the purse, only to watch them disappoint in their next starts when facing a much slower pace. Went the Day Well is a recent example, as is Ice Box from two years ago. Can Dullahan win? Of course he can! But you can't pick every horse.
#9 PAYNTER - Consider this colt the wild card. Racing for the same connections as Derby/Preakness runner-up Bodemeister, this colt has actually been considered for months as the better of the two horses. While he hasn't yet found the success of his more famous stablemate, this lightly-raced son of Awesome Again has demonstrated during his short career that he could eventually be one of the best of his crop. He began his career by winning a 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita by an overwhelmingly easy 4 1/4 lengths. He then stepped up to grade I company in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I), where he ran extremely well given the circumstances to finish fourth, beaten less than four lengths by I'll Have Another. A second-place finish in the Derby Trial Stakes (gr. III) over a sloppy track did little to diminish his reputation, but it was his next start that really got people talking about what kind of a colt he might be. Sent off as the 1-10 favorite in a 1 1/16th miles allowance race at Pimlico, he absolutely dominated in front-running fashion, coasting home under a hand ride to win by 5 3/4 lengths. The victory earned him a Beyer speed figure of 106, by far the highest figure earned by any horse in this race. If you think he is too lightly raced to win the Belmont, you have a valid enough point. And it's true that he is taking a huge step up in distance, not to mention class. But he has been training well, and trainer Bob Baffert wouldn't be running him if he didn't think he had a chance. Plus, he's got as strong a pedigree for this race as anyone else in the field, which could definitely be an asset in those final two furlongs. I say he gets a terrific trip pressing a slow pace before finishing up strongly to pull off a mild upset.
My selections are:
1 Paynter
2 Dullahan
3 Atigun
4 Union Rags
I could really go with any of these four, and I could certainly change my mind during the next twenty-four hours, but for the time being, I feel fairly confident in Paynter's chances.
Here are J.R.'s selections:
1 Dullahan
2 Ravelo's Boy
3 Optimizer
4 Union Rags
J.R. feels that Dullahan was the best horse in the Derby, and will prove that with a dominating victory tomorrow afternoon. He claims the final time will be in the vicinity of 2:26 2/5, further stamping this crop of three-year-olds as one of the best in recent memory.
-Keelerman
Belmont Stakes (gr. I)
Twelve furlongs on the Belmont Park dirt track
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | M. L. Odds |
| 1 | Street Life | Chad Brown | Jose Lezcano | 8-1 |
| 2 | Unstoppable U | Kenny McPeek | Junior Alvarado | 20-1 |
| 3 | Union Rags | John Velazquez | Michael Matz | 3-1 |
| 4 | Atigun | Kenny McPeek | Julien Leparoux | 15-1 |
| 5 | Dullahan | Dale Romans | Javier Castellano | 9-5 |
| 6 | Ravelo's Boy | Manuel Azpurua | Alex Solis | 30-1 |
| 7 | Five Sixteen | Dominick Schettino | Rosie Napravnik | 30-1 |
| 8 | Guyana Star Dweej | Doodnauth Shivmangal | Kent Desormeaux | 30-1 |
| 9 | Paynter | Bob Baffert | Mike Smith | 7-2 |
| 10 | Optimizer | D. Wayne Lukas | Corey Nakatani | 15-1 |
| 12 | My Adonis | Kelly Breen | Ramon Dominguez | 15-1 |
As I did for the Derby and the Preakness, I shall break the field down into three groups: "Unlikely Contenders," "Medium Contenders," and "Win Contenders." Enjoy!
UNLIKELY CONTENDERS
#2 UNSTOPPABLE U - He is undefeated, but with only two starts under his belt, this race is a huge step up in class. A front-running son of Exchange Rate from the barn of Kenny McPeek -- who pulled off a 70-1 upset in the Belmont with Sarava in 2002 -- Unstoppable U clearly has a bright future, but the fact that he is stretching out a full half-mile farther than he has ever run -- in addition to trying two turns for the first time -- makes him one of the longer shots on this race. On the other hand, he has been training well, and he should be able to work out a good trip on the front end, so it might be wise to not completely toss him from consideration.
#7 FIVE SIXTEEN - He's got a strong enough pedigree for this distance, being a son of the exceptional stayer Invasor, but his only victory from six starts came in a nine-furlong maiden special weight, in which the final time was 1:55 flat. That was two starts back; his most recent race was a nine-furlong allowance race against older horses in which he finished a well-beaten fourth. Hard to make a case for him in this tough spot, but weirder things have happened -- Da' Tara comes to mind! :)
#8 GUYANA STAR DWEEJ - This heavily-raced colt started nine times between November 26th and April 27th, claiming one victory and a quintet of seconds in the process. While he seems to be a nice enough colt, he was soundly beaten by Unstoppable U last time out, and would appear to be overmatched in this spot. On the other hand, his pedigree seems to say that he'll enjoy this distance as well as any other, so maybe the distance will help his chances.
MEDIUM CONTENDERS
#1 STREET LIFE - This promising son of Street Sense possesses quite the late kick, which he demonstrated when breaking his maiden and subsequently claiming the Broad Brush Stakes. He followed up those efforts with a disappointing effort in the Wood Memorial (gr. I), then rebounded to finish a strong third in the Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II) here at Belmont Park. The only concern here is that such deep closers rarely win the Belmont, and while he is more than capable of securing a major piece of the purse, he may find himself with too much to do when the real running begins.
#6 RAVELO'S BOY - Most people are tossing this colt from consideration, mainly because he has yet to crack the trifecta in a stakes and still has only two victories from thirteen starts. But I've found a couple of reasons to like his chances. After all, he did emerge from his fifth-place effort in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) with a minor injury, and he has been training unbelievably well over the deep Calder main track. Perhaps he won't win, but don't be surprised if this well-bred colt outruns his odds.
#10 OPTIMIZER - While he has only a single victory from eleven starts, you can't knock this colt's durability. After all, he has made ten consecutive starts in stakes races, which includes solid efforts in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I), Rebel Stakes (gr. II), and With Anticipation Stakes (gr. II) -- on three different surfaces! It's hard to overlook the fact that he has been beaten a combined 48 lengths in his last three starts, but he's beautifully bred for twelve furlongs, and his best effort would make him competitive here. Isn't it about time that trainer D. Wayne Lukas won another Triple Crown race?
#12 MY ADONIS - This last-minute entrant had a legitimate excuse last time out -- the fact that he shipped from New Jersey to Kentucky to Maryland in the span of a few days -- and has enough back class to warrant consideration. He did finish a strong second in the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) in March, and coupled with his bullet five-furlong breeze on May 27th, you can make a case that this speedy colt could be a contender. His connections won this race last year with a 24-1 in Ruler On Ice, and while this colt does have to overcome the far outside post position, the guidance of top jockey Ramon Dominguez should make his task easier.
WIN CONTENDERS
#3 UNION RAGS - Some will argue that his Beyer speed figures have not increased from last year to this year, but the fact is, the poor trips he has received in his last two starts really didn't give him an opportunity to earn big figures. This colt is a long-striding type whose biggest weapon is his high cruising speed -- the ability to lope along at a fast pace without expanding too much energy. He simply doesn't have the acceleration to wait behind horses and burst past them in the homestretch. Nor does he have the ability to muster a tremendous late run from the back of the pack. What this colt needs is an outside trip, which will allow him to stretch his legs and make a move when he wants to. This won't be extremely easy to get while starting from post three, but with John Velazquez in the saddle for the first time, I fully expect him to accomplish it. From there, it's a matter of whether his pedigree can carry him a mile and a half -- which is certainly debatable.
#4 ATIGUN - Perhaps I'm crazy for including this horse among the win contenders, but year after year, we watch huge longshots triumph in the Belmont, and of the longshots, I think this colt is the best one. True, he was soundly beaten in a pair of Oaklawn stakes races during the spring, but he rebounded nicely to win a 1 1/16th miles allowance race last time out. He's got a strong enough pedigree to suggest that he can handle this distance, and with Julien Leparoux in the saddle for trainer Kenny McPeek, I can see him working out a mid-pack trip with a strong finish in the homestretch. Whether he is good enough to win remains to be seen, but if he does, you heard it here first . . . :)
#5 DULLAHAN - With the scratch of I'll Have Another, Dullahan has assumed the role of the favorite. His credentials are strong. He finished third in the Derby, and probably would have won with a better trip. He has been training phenomenally since then. He has top Belmont park jockey Javier Castellano in the saddle. He can't lose, right? While I certainly won't be surprised at all if he wins, I'm going to take a stand against him simply because of his running. Deep closers like Dullahan rarely win the Belmont, for reasons described above. Perhaps his brilliant half-mile drill on June 3rd is a sign that he will try and stay a bit closer to the pace than usual, but chances are, he will be well behind the leaders early on. Another reason I'm leaning toward other horses is the fact that his late charge in the Derby may have been partly an illusion. Many times, we have seen horses closer from impossibly far back in the Kentucky Derby to secure a major piece of the purse, only to watch them disappoint in their next starts when facing a much slower pace. Went the Day Well is a recent example, as is Ice Box from two years ago. Can Dullahan win? Of course he can! But you can't pick every horse.
#9 PAYNTER - Consider this colt the wild card. Racing for the same connections as Derby/Preakness runner-up Bodemeister, this colt has actually been considered for months as the better of the two horses. While he hasn't yet found the success of his more famous stablemate, this lightly-raced son of Awesome Again has demonstrated during his short career that he could eventually be one of the best of his crop. He began his career by winning a 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita by an overwhelmingly easy 4 1/4 lengths. He then stepped up to grade I company in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I), where he ran extremely well given the circumstances to finish fourth, beaten less than four lengths by I'll Have Another. A second-place finish in the Derby Trial Stakes (gr. III) over a sloppy track did little to diminish his reputation, but it was his next start that really got people talking about what kind of a colt he might be. Sent off as the 1-10 favorite in a 1 1/16th miles allowance race at Pimlico, he absolutely dominated in front-running fashion, coasting home under a hand ride to win by 5 3/4 lengths. The victory earned him a Beyer speed figure of 106, by far the highest figure earned by any horse in this race. If you think he is too lightly raced to win the Belmont, you have a valid enough point. And it's true that he is taking a huge step up in distance, not to mention class. But he has been training well, and trainer Bob Baffert wouldn't be running him if he didn't think he had a chance. Plus, he's got as strong a pedigree for this race as anyone else in the field, which could definitely be an asset in those final two furlongs. I say he gets a terrific trip pressing a slow pace before finishing up strongly to pull off a mild upset.
My selections are:
1 Paynter
2 Dullahan
3 Atigun
4 Union Rags
I could really go with any of these four, and I could certainly change my mind during the next twenty-four hours, but for the time being, I feel fairly confident in Paynter's chances.
Here are J.R.'s selections:
1 Dullahan
2 Ravelo's Boy
3 Optimizer
4 Union Rags
J.R. feels that Dullahan was the best horse in the Derby, and will prove that with a dominating victory tomorrow afternoon. He claims the final time will be in the vicinity of 2:26 2/5, further stamping this crop of three-year-olds as one of the best in recent memory.
-Keelerman
I'll Have Another Retired
I'll Have Another, who was on the verge of sweeping the elusive Triple Crown following victories in the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) and Preakness Stakes (gr. I), has been retired from racing after devoloping tendonitis in his left front leg.
It is only the third time in history that a Derby/Preakness winner failed to start in the Belmont Stakes, the other two being Burgoo King in 1932 and Bold Venture in 1936.
The injury was first noticed yesterday as a mild filling in his leg, and while it did reduce overnight, it returned this morning following a routine gallop. The injury was diagnosed the beginning of tendonitis, and owner Paul Reddam announced the colt's retirement at a press conference this afternoon.
In addition to winning the Derby and the Preakness, I'll Have Another's other victories included the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) and Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II).
Trained by Doug O'Neill, the colt retired with five wins and a second from seven starts and earnings of $2,693,600.
-Keelerman
It is only the third time in history that a Derby/Preakness winner failed to start in the Belmont Stakes, the other two being Burgoo King in 1932 and Bold Venture in 1936.
The injury was first noticed yesterday as a mild filling in his leg, and while it did reduce overnight, it returned this morning following a routine gallop. The injury was diagnosed the beginning of tendonitis, and owner Paul Reddam announced the colt's retirement at a press conference this afternoon.
In addition to winning the Derby and the Preakness, I'll Have Another's other victories included the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) and Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II).
Trained by Doug O'Neill, the colt retired with five wins and a second from seven starts and earnings of $2,693,600.
-Keelerman
Updated Belmont Stakes Post Positions
Here is an updated chart of the 2012 Belmont Stakes (gr. I) post positions, following the scratch of morning line favorite I'll Have Another.
My Adonis is the only horse to be affected by the scratch, as he will shift inward from gate twelve to gate eleven. However, he will still race as number twelve.
-Keelerman
| PP | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | M. L. Odds |
| 1 | Street Life | Chad Brown | Jose Lezcano | 8-1 |
| 2 | Unstoppable U | Kenny McPeek | Junior Alvarado | 20-1 |
| 3 | Union Rags | John Velazquez | Michael Matz | 3-1 |
| 4 | Atigun | Kenny McPeek | Julien Leparoux | 15-1 |
| 5 | Dullahan | Dale Romans | Javier Castellano | 9-5 |
| 6 | Ravelo's Boy | Manuel Azpurua | Alex Solis | 30-1 |
| 7 | Five Sixteen | Dominick Schettino | Rosie Napravnik | 30-1 |
| 8 | Guyana Star Dweej | Doodnauth Shivmangal | Kent Desormeaux | 30-1 |
| 9 | Paynter | Bob Baffert | Mike Smith | 7-2 |
| 10 | Optimizer | D. Wayne Lukas | Corey Nakatani | 15-1 |
| 11 | My Adonis | Kelly Breen | Ramon Dominguez | 15-1 |
My Adonis is the only horse to be affected by the scratch, as he will shift inward from gate twelve to gate eleven. However, he will still race as number twelve.
-Keelerman
I'll Have Another Scratched from Belmont Stakes
I'll Have Another, winner of the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) and Preakness Stakes (gr. I), has been scratched from Saturday's Belmont Stakes (gr. I) after developing tendonitis in his left front leg.
The colt, who would have been a heavy favorite, had been aiming to become racing's twelfth Triple Crown winner, and the first since Affirmed in 1978. His scratch leaves a field of eleven to contest the Belmont, led by Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Dullahan, Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) winner Union Rags, and the lightly-raced by highly promising Paynter.
Additional details can be found on DRF.com: http://www.drf.com/news/ill-have-another-scratch-belmont-stakes
-Keelerman
The colt, who would have been a heavy favorite, had been aiming to become racing's twelfth Triple Crown winner, and the first since Affirmed in 1978. His scratch leaves a field of eleven to contest the Belmont, led by Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Dullahan, Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) winner Union Rags, and the lightly-raced by highly promising Paynter.
Additional details can be found on DRF.com: http://www.drf.com/news/ill-have-another-scratch-belmont-stakes
-Keelerman
Wednesday, June 06, 2012
BELMONT STAKES COUNTDOWN -- June 6th, 2012
With only three days remaining before the Belmont Stakes, excitement is obviously reaching a crescendo. Anticipation was further bolstered this morning when entries for the mile-and-a-half classic were taken and post positions drawn, creating a flurry of enthusiasm as eager racing fans pour over the past performances in an effort to try and predict whether or not I'll Have Another will prove successful in his bid to win the Triple Crown.
Easy Goer Stakes Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the $100,000 Easy Goer Stakes, to be run on Saturday at Belmont Park. The 1 1/16th miles race for three-year-olds has drawn a field of nine, including by last-out stakes winner Skyring, grade I-placed Teeth of the Dog, and Canonero II Stakes runner-up Brimstone Island.
1 Bridge Loan
2 Romancing the Gold
3 Politicallycorrect
4 Skyring
5 Brimstone Island
6 Teeth of the Dog
7 Sensor
8 Fast Falcon
9 Inflation Target
-Keelerman
1 Bridge Loan
2 Romancing the Gold
3 Politicallycorrect
4 Skyring
5 Brimstone Island
6 Teeth of the Dog
7 Sensor
8 Fast Falcon
9 Inflation Target
-Keelerman
True North Handicap Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the $400,000 True North Handicap (gr. II), to be run on Saturday at Belmont Park. The six-furlong sprint has drawn an excellent field of male sprinters, including Vosburgh Stakes (gr. I) winner Giant Ryan, millionaire Caixa Eletronica, triple grade I stakes winner Smiling Tiger, and 2010 Breeders' Cup Sprint (gr. I) runner-up Hamazing Destiny.
1 Pacific Ocean
2 Crossbow
3 Smiling Tiger
4 Hamazing Destiny
5 Royal Currier
6 Giant Ryan
7 Caixa Eletronica
8 Justin Phillip
-Keelerman
1 Pacific Ocean
2 Crossbow
3 Smiling Tiger
4 Hamazing Destiny
5 Royal Currier
6 Giant Ryan
7 Caixa Eletronica
8 Justin Phillip
-Keelerman
Just a Game Stakes Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the $500,000 Longines Just a Game Stakes (gr. I), to be run on Saturday at Belmont Park. The one-mile turf race for fillies and mares has drawn a small but talented field of seven, including grade I winner Winter Memories, the promising Hungry Island, grade II stakes winner Dancinginherdreams, and Breeders' Cup champion Tapitsfly.
1 Tapitsfly
2 Sylvestris
3 Wallis
4 Winter Memories
5 Hungry Island
6 Dancinginherdreams
7 Up In Time
-Keelerman
1 Tapitsfly
2 Sylvestris
3 Wallis
4 Winter Memories
5 Hungry Island
6 Dancinginherdreams
7 Up In Time
-Keelerman
Woody Stephens Stakes Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the $400,000 Woody Stephens Stakes (gr. II), to be run on Saturday at Belmont Park. The seven-furlong sprint for three-year-olds has drawn a number of talented young colts, led by two-time graded stakes winner Trinniberg and grade I-winning Currency Swap.
1 Hierro
2 Hardened Wildcat
3 Il Villano
4 Brian
5 Bourbon Courage
6 Trinniberg
7 Power World
8 Isn't He Clever
9 Currency Swap
10 Laurie's Rocket
-Keelerman
1 Hierro
2 Hardened Wildcat
3 Il Villano
4 Brian
5 Bourbon Courage
6 Trinniberg
7 Power World
8 Isn't He Clever
9 Currency Swap
10 Laurie's Rocket
-Keelerman
Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the $500,000 Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap (gr. I), to be run on Saturday at Belmont Park. The ten furlong turf race has drawn a small but talented field of eight, led by Dixie Stakes (gr. II) winner Hudson Steele, the promising Brilliant Speed, and the veteran campaigner Al Khali.
1 Omayad
2 Boisterous
3 Al Khali
4 Desert Blanc
5 Papaw Bodie
6 Brilliant Speed
7 Hudson Steele
8 Top Surprise
-Keelerman
1 Omayad
2 Boisterous
3 Al Khali
4 Desert Blanc
5 Papaw Bodie
6 Brilliant Speed
7 Hudson Steele
8 Top Surprise
-Keelerman
2012 Belmont Stakes Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the $1,000,000 Belmont Stakes (gr. I), to be run on Saturday at Belmont Park. The 1 1/2-mile classic has drawn a fairly large field of twelve, led by Kentucky Derby/Preakness Stakes winner I'll Have Another, who will attempt to become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978.
| PP | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | M. L. Odds |
| 1 | Street Life | Chad Brown | Jose Lezcano | 12-1 |
| 2 | Unstoppable U | Kenny McPeek | Junior Alvarado | 30-1 |
| 3 | Union Rags | John Velazquez | Michael Matz | 6-1 |
| 4 | Atigun | Kenny McPeek | Julien Leparoux | 30-1 |
| 5 | Dullahan | Dale Romans | Javier Castellano | 5-1 |
| 6 | Ravelo's Boy | Manuel Azpurua | Alex Solis | 50-1 |
| 7 | Five Sixteen | Dominick Schettino | Rosie Napravnik | 50-1 |
| 8 | Guyana Star Dweej | Doodnauth Shivmangal | Kent Desormeaux | 50-1 |
| 9 | Paynter | Bob Baffert | Mike Smith | 8-1 |
| 10 | Optimizer | D. Wayne Lukas | Corey Nakatani | 20-1 |
| 11 | I'll Have Another | Doug O'Neill | Mario Gutierrez | 4-5 |
| 12 | My Adonis | Kelly Breen | Ramon Dominguez | 20-1 |
Tuesday, June 05, 2012
BELMONT STAKES COUNTDOWN -- June 5th, 2012
With the Belmont Stakes now just four days away, all of the contenders have finished their major training. The final pre-Belmont workout turned in by a potential starter was completed yesterday morning when Guyana Star Dweej, expected to be the longest shot in the field, worked a half-mile in :49.06 in company with graded stakes winner Shkspeare Shaliyah, who was credited with an identical time.
Other than that, with training completed, there won't be a great deal to discuss during the coming days. The biggest news to emerge today is that Lava Man, the constant companion of Derby/Preakness winner I'll Have Another, will not accompany the budding superstar into the Belmont Stakes detention barn tomorrow morning, simply because trainer Doug O'Neill feels the old gelding will be unable to adapt to the changes as well as his younger friend.
Other than that, with training completed, there won't be a great deal to discuss during the coming days. The biggest news to emerge today is that Lava Man, the constant companion of Derby/Preakness winner I'll Have Another, will not accompany the budding superstar into the Belmont Stakes detention barn tomorrow morning, simply because trainer Doug O'Neill feels the old gelding will be unable to adapt to the changes as well as his younger friend.
Belmont Stakes Contender Profile: MY ADONIS
Owner: George and Lori Hall
Trainer: Kelly Breen
Breeder: K & G Stables
Expected Belmont Jockey: Ramon Dominguez
RACE RECORD
Age 3
3rd Canonero II Stakes
7th Resorts World Casino New York City Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I)
2nd Gotham Stakes (gr. III)
3rd Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III)
Age 2
9th Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III)
1st Jean Lafitte Stakes
1st Maiden Special Weight
2nd Maiden Special Weight
2nd Maiden Special Weight
2nd Maiden Special Weight
PEDIGREE
To read what I have written about My Adonis in the past, click here.
Trainer: Kelly Breen
Breeder: K & G Stables
Expected Belmont Jockey: Ramon Dominguez
RACE RECORD
Age 3
3rd Canonero II Stakes
7th Resorts World Casino New York City Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I)
2nd Gotham Stakes (gr. III)
3rd Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III)
Age 2
9th Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III)
1st Jean Lafitte Stakes
1st Maiden Special Weight
2nd Maiden Special Weight
2nd Maiden Special Weight
2nd Maiden Special Weight
PEDIGREE
| Pleasant Colony | ||
| Pleasantly Perfect | ||
| Regal Strike | ||
| My Adonis | ||
| Elusive Quality | ||
| Silent Justice | ||
| Norene's Nemesis |
To read what I have written about My Adonis in the past, click here.
Sunday, June 03, 2012
BELMONT STAKES COUNTDOWN -- June 3rd, 2012
It was a busy morning for Belmont Stakes contenders, as a total of seven prospective starters for the mile-and-a-half classic turned in workouts, including five at Belmont Park.
The large amount of activity was due in part to rainstorms which swept through the Belmont Park area yesterday morning, dumping roughly an inch and a half of rain on to the main track. This caused the postponement of numerous workouts, which were moved from yesterday to today in order to catch a better track.
The large amount of activity was due in part to rainstorms which swept through the Belmont Park area yesterday morning, dumping roughly an inch and a half of rain on to the main track. This caused the postponement of numerous workouts, which were moved from yesterday to today in order to catch a better track.
Saturday, June 02, 2012
CAN I'LL HAVE ANOTHER WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN?
Can I'll Have Another win the Triple Crown?
This is the question that all fans of horse racing are asking themselves, and to be honest, no one knows the answer. You would think that a simple yes or no question would be easy enough to resolve, but in horse racing, that is not the case.
It's a subjective question. It doesn't have a clear-cut answer, like "Do dogs have four legs?" No, a simple yes or no does not suffice to answer this complicated question.
Sort of.
Let me offer a disclaimer -- yes, I'll Have Another can win the Triple Crown. There is nothing stopping him if he is good enough. He has won the first two legs of the series, and as long as he enters the starting gate for the Belmont Stakes, he can win the Triple Crown.
That part is not subjective. It's that "if he is good enough?" part that has everyone puzzling over the real answer to the question.
In this post, I shall attempt to delve into the details of I'll Have Another's racing career, preparation, and breeding in an effort to discover whether the odds of him winning are better than the odds of him losing. Along the way, we shall discover his potential strengths and weaknesses, and if all goes well, by the time we reach the end of this post, we should have a fair idea of whether or not I'll Have Another can win the Triple Crown.
RACING CAREER
First things first -- does I'll Have Another have the racing foundation to win the Triple Crown?
If anything is going to stand in him way of sweeping the Crown, it's probably his foundation. Every Triple Crown winner to date made at least six starts prior to the Kentucky Derby, most of them made more than six. In fact, Whirlaway raced an incredible 23 times prior to the Derby!
The following chart details the eleven Triple Crown winners and the amount of preparation they had prior to the start of the series:
Horse: Total # of starts prior to Derby (# of juvenile races/# of Derby preps)
As we can see, of all of the Triple Crown winners, Seattle Slew had the least amount of racing experience as a juvenile, making only three starts. He, along with Sir Barton, had the least number of starts prior to the Derby.
I'll Have Another, like Seattle Slew, also made three starts as a juvenile. But unlike Slew, who started in three Derby preps, I'll Have Another only raced two times in the spring before the Derby, giving him a total of five starts heading into the Triple Crown.
Interestingly, while the majority of Triple Crown winners were heavily raced as juveniles, 6 of the 11 made two or fewer starts in the spring before the Derby; Sir Barton actually didn't run in any spring preps at all. So I'll Have Another's two starts this spring will be unlikely to hinder his chances of sweeping the Crown.
In conclusion, while it is true that I'll Have Another hasn't raced quite as often as any of the Triple Crown winners, his possible lack of foundation isn't really all that bad. Coupled with the fact that the majority of his prospective Belmont rivals have been campaigned in similar fashion, one realizes that racing foundation is probably the least of I'll Have Another's worries.
PEDIGREE
Perhaps there were some questions about the pedigrees of Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, and Big Brown heading into the Belmont Stakes -- questions about their ability to traverse the mile-and-a-half distance of the race -- but there is no such question regarding I'll Have Another. His sire, Flower Alley, won the Travers Stakes (gr. I) going ten furlongs and finished second in the Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I) at that same distance. His grandsire, Distorted Humor, is the sire of 2010 Belmont Stakes winner Drosselmeyer.
On the dam side, I'll Have Another's broodmare sire is Arch, sire of 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic winner Blame. He is also a good source of stamina. Going a bit further back, we encounter the great Roberto, possibly one of the strongest stamina influences of all. Through in names like Danzig, Nijinsky II, Sea-Bird, Stage Door Johnny, Alydar, Princequillo -- and of course, a bit of Northern and Mr. Prospector -- need I say more?
RUNNING STYLE
All handicapping logic would seem to say that deep closers should win the Belmont the majority of the time. If a horse is gaining furiously at the finish of a nine-furlong race, wouldn't it stand to reason that the same horse would relish the additional three furlongs provided by the Belmont Stakes?
Actually, this is almost never the case. Perhaps it is due to the fact that the early pace in a race like the Belmont is usually slower than in shorter races, meaning that the closers are left with too much ground to make up on horses that still have something left in the tank.
On the other end of the spectrum, front-runners rarely win the Belmont either -- due probably to the length of the race, which most certainly does not lend itself to a gate-to-wire job. To accomplish that feat in a race like the Belmont requires the performance of a lifetime by a truly special horse.
Nor is the Belmont won by horses that make explosive moves around the far turn. Any horse that dares attempt such a move may take the lead entering the homestretch -- but good luck keeping it. The Belmont homestretch is quite lengthy, and a horse that moves on the turn tends to end up tiring in deep stretch, allowing a more patient horse to secure the victory.
So what running style does win the Belmont? Well, in most cases, the Belmont winner is a horse that is able to rate patiently in mid-pack early on, or else right behind the early leaders, and finish up with a strong run in the homestretch -- not on the turn. The ability to maintain a solid drive for five-sixteenths of a mile is also helpful.
Fortunately, I'll Have Another possesses such a running style. We saw him rate in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, and we saw him press the pace in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. And we certainly saw in the Preakness that he has the ability to just keep grinding away in the stretch.
I'll Have Another's running style is most definitely not a detriment. He has perhaps the perfect running style for the Belmont, and that alone could lead him to victory.
POTENTIAL WEAKNESSES
So does I'll Have Another have any weaknesses heading into the Belmont? I could only come up with a few, and they are most certainly minor ones.
First off, let's talk about his possible dislike for mud. In his only start over an off track, in Saratoga's Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) last September, I'll Have Another turned in by far the worst performance of his career, finishing a dismal sixth while beaten nearly twenty lengths. Of course, he did come out of the race with sore shins, which certainly could have contributed to the poor performance. But the question is, was the poor performance a result of the sore shins, or were the sore shins the result of racing in mud?
Of course, the possibility of a muddy track on Belmont day is really pretty small, and chances are that even if the track were muddy, I'll Have Another would handle it just as well as anyone else. But I do believe this counts as a potential weakness.
Then of course, there is the fact that I'll Have Another will not be allowed to wear a nasal strip in the Belmont -- a piece of equipment which he has worn in all of his victories this year. I doubt the absence of the strip will have much of an impact on his performance, for it is a fairly minor piece of equipment, but it definitely counts as a potential weakness, for we don't know for sure how it will affect him.
Another weakness could potentially be his jockey, Mario Gutierrez -- although I seriously doubt it. Some jockeys without experience at Belmont Park make their moves too soon on the far turn, leaving their mounts without enough punch to hang on in the homestretch. But the fact is, Gutierrez has ridden this horse so well in all of his races this year, that I doubt the larger circumference of Belmont Park is going to be an issue. In addition, Gutierrez is going to get in some valuable riding experience here at Belmont during the coming week, so I really doubt that he will make a mistake in the big race itself. But I suppose technically you could count this as a potential weakness.
Other than that, I can't seem to come up with any more chinks in the armor of I'll Have Another. He appears to be heading into the Belmont as one of the most solid potential Triple Crown winners in years. If anything beats him, it won't be his foundation, pedigree, or running style. If he loses, it will most likely be a simple matter of another horse being superior under the circumstances.
So can I'll Have Another win the Triple Crown? My answer is yes. And not just the un-subjective kind of yes. In my opinion, I'll Have Another is going to become racing's twelfth Triple Crown winner.
Am I positive? No. But I am very, very confident, and in horse racing, that is as close to a definitive "yes" as you can get.
-Keelerman
This is the question that all fans of horse racing are asking themselves, and to be honest, no one knows the answer. You would think that a simple yes or no question would be easy enough to resolve, but in horse racing, that is not the case.
It's a subjective question. It doesn't have a clear-cut answer, like "Do dogs have four legs?" No, a simple yes or no does not suffice to answer this complicated question.
Sort of.
Let me offer a disclaimer -- yes, I'll Have Another can win the Triple Crown. There is nothing stopping him if he is good enough. He has won the first two legs of the series, and as long as he enters the starting gate for the Belmont Stakes, he can win the Triple Crown.
That part is not subjective. It's that "if he is good enough?" part that has everyone puzzling over the real answer to the question.
In this post, I shall attempt to delve into the details of I'll Have Another's racing career, preparation, and breeding in an effort to discover whether the odds of him winning are better than the odds of him losing. Along the way, we shall discover his potential strengths and weaknesses, and if all goes well, by the time we reach the end of this post, we should have a fair idea of whether or not I'll Have Another can win the Triple Crown.
RACING CAREER
First things first -- does I'll Have Another have the racing foundation to win the Triple Crown?
If anything is going to stand in him way of sweeping the Crown, it's probably his foundation. Every Triple Crown winner to date made at least six starts prior to the Kentucky Derby, most of them made more than six. In fact, Whirlaway raced an incredible 23 times prior to the Derby!
The following chart details the eleven Triple Crown winners and the amount of preparation they had prior to the start of the series:
Horse: Total # of starts prior to Derby (# of juvenile races/# of Derby preps)
| Horse | Total # of starts prior to Derby | # of starts at age 2 | # of Derby preps |
| Affirmed | 13 | 9 | 4 |
| Seattle Slew | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Secretariat | 12 | 9 | 3 |
| Citation | 16 | 9 | 7 |
| Assault | 11 | 9 | 2 |
| Count Fleet | 17 | 15 | 2 |
| Whirlaway | 23 | 16 | 7 |
| War Admiral | 8 | 6 | 2 |
| Omaha | 11 | 9 | 2 |
| Gallant Fox | 8 | 7 | 1 |
| Sir Barton | 6 | 6 | 0 |
As we can see, of all of the Triple Crown winners, Seattle Slew had the least amount of racing experience as a juvenile, making only three starts. He, along with Sir Barton, had the least number of starts prior to the Derby.
I'll Have Another, like Seattle Slew, also made three starts as a juvenile. But unlike Slew, who started in three Derby preps, I'll Have Another only raced two times in the spring before the Derby, giving him a total of five starts heading into the Triple Crown.
Interestingly, while the majority of Triple Crown winners were heavily raced as juveniles, 6 of the 11 made two or fewer starts in the spring before the Derby; Sir Barton actually didn't run in any spring preps at all. So I'll Have Another's two starts this spring will be unlikely to hinder his chances of sweeping the Crown.
In conclusion, while it is true that I'll Have Another hasn't raced quite as often as any of the Triple Crown winners, his possible lack of foundation isn't really all that bad. Coupled with the fact that the majority of his prospective Belmont rivals have been campaigned in similar fashion, one realizes that racing foundation is probably the least of I'll Have Another's worries.
PEDIGREE
Perhaps there were some questions about the pedigrees of Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, and Big Brown heading into the Belmont Stakes -- questions about their ability to traverse the mile-and-a-half distance of the race -- but there is no such question regarding I'll Have Another. His sire, Flower Alley, won the Travers Stakes (gr. I) going ten furlongs and finished second in the Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I) at that same distance. His grandsire, Distorted Humor, is the sire of 2010 Belmont Stakes winner Drosselmeyer.
On the dam side, I'll Have Another's broodmare sire is Arch, sire of 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic winner Blame. He is also a good source of stamina. Going a bit further back, we encounter the great Roberto, possibly one of the strongest stamina influences of all. Through in names like Danzig, Nijinsky II, Sea-Bird, Stage Door Johnny, Alydar, Princequillo -- and of course, a bit of Northern and Mr. Prospector -- need I say more?
RUNNING STYLE
All handicapping logic would seem to say that deep closers should win the Belmont the majority of the time. If a horse is gaining furiously at the finish of a nine-furlong race, wouldn't it stand to reason that the same horse would relish the additional three furlongs provided by the Belmont Stakes?
Actually, this is almost never the case. Perhaps it is due to the fact that the early pace in a race like the Belmont is usually slower than in shorter races, meaning that the closers are left with too much ground to make up on horses that still have something left in the tank.
On the other end of the spectrum, front-runners rarely win the Belmont either -- due probably to the length of the race, which most certainly does not lend itself to a gate-to-wire job. To accomplish that feat in a race like the Belmont requires the performance of a lifetime by a truly special horse.
Nor is the Belmont won by horses that make explosive moves around the far turn. Any horse that dares attempt such a move may take the lead entering the homestretch -- but good luck keeping it. The Belmont homestretch is quite lengthy, and a horse that moves on the turn tends to end up tiring in deep stretch, allowing a more patient horse to secure the victory.
So what running style does win the Belmont? Well, in most cases, the Belmont winner is a horse that is able to rate patiently in mid-pack early on, or else right behind the early leaders, and finish up with a strong run in the homestretch -- not on the turn. The ability to maintain a solid drive for five-sixteenths of a mile is also helpful.
Fortunately, I'll Have Another possesses such a running style. We saw him rate in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, and we saw him press the pace in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. And we certainly saw in the Preakness that he has the ability to just keep grinding away in the stretch.
I'll Have Another's running style is most definitely not a detriment. He has perhaps the perfect running style for the Belmont, and that alone could lead him to victory.
POTENTIAL WEAKNESSES
So does I'll Have Another have any weaknesses heading into the Belmont? I could only come up with a few, and they are most certainly minor ones.
First off, let's talk about his possible dislike for mud. In his only start over an off track, in Saratoga's Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) last September, I'll Have Another turned in by far the worst performance of his career, finishing a dismal sixth while beaten nearly twenty lengths. Of course, he did come out of the race with sore shins, which certainly could have contributed to the poor performance. But the question is, was the poor performance a result of the sore shins, or were the sore shins the result of racing in mud?
Of course, the possibility of a muddy track on Belmont day is really pretty small, and chances are that even if the track were muddy, I'll Have Another would handle it just as well as anyone else. But I do believe this counts as a potential weakness.
Then of course, there is the fact that I'll Have Another will not be allowed to wear a nasal strip in the Belmont -- a piece of equipment which he has worn in all of his victories this year. I doubt the absence of the strip will have much of an impact on his performance, for it is a fairly minor piece of equipment, but it definitely counts as a potential weakness, for we don't know for sure how it will affect him.
Another weakness could potentially be his jockey, Mario Gutierrez -- although I seriously doubt it. Some jockeys without experience at Belmont Park make their moves too soon on the far turn, leaving their mounts without enough punch to hang on in the homestretch. But the fact is, Gutierrez has ridden this horse so well in all of his races this year, that I doubt the larger circumference of Belmont Park is going to be an issue. In addition, Gutierrez is going to get in some valuable riding experience here at Belmont during the coming week, so I really doubt that he will make a mistake in the big race itself. But I suppose technically you could count this as a potential weakness.
Other than that, I can't seem to come up with any more chinks in the armor of I'll Have Another. He appears to be heading into the Belmont as one of the most solid potential Triple Crown winners in years. If anything beats him, it won't be his foundation, pedigree, or running style. If he loses, it will most likely be a simple matter of another horse being superior under the circumstances.
So can I'll Have Another win the Triple Crown? My answer is yes. And not just the un-subjective kind of yes. In my opinion, I'll Have Another is going to become racing's twelfth Triple Crown winner.
Am I positive? No. But I am very, very confident, and in horse racing, that is as close to a definitive "yes" as you can get.
-Keelerman
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