Stephen Foster Handicap (gr. I)
Nine furlongs on the Churchill Downs dirt track
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Nates Mineshaft | J. Campbell |
| 2 | Fort Larned | Julien Leparoux |
| 3 | Wise Dan | John Velazquez |
| 4 | Nehro | Corey Nakatani |
| 5 | Ron the Greek | Jose Lezcano |
| 6 | Rogue Romance | Manny Cruz |
| 7 | Mission Impazible | Javier Castellano |
| 8 | Alternation | Luis Quinonez |
| 9 | Successful Dan | John Velazquez |
Note: Successful Dan is expected to scratch.
The morning line favorite at 8-5 is Wise Dan, and it certainly won't surprise me a bit if he ends up going off at lower than that. He's proven to be an extremely versatile sort during a career that has spanned fifteen starts, winning nine races on dirt, turf, and synthetic. He has only raced once this year, but that was an incredible performance in the Ben Ali Stakes (gr. III) at Keeneland, which he won by 10 1/2 lengths while breaking the track record. He earned an incredible Beyer speed of 117 for his efforts, and should only be sharper today. If you are wondering about his ability to transfer that form to dirt, just remember that he blew the doors off the likes of Mission Impazible, Flat Out, and Ruler On Ice in the Clark Handicap (gr. I) here at Churchill last fall. These facts, coupled with how well he has been training, makes him a solid favorite in a race full of good horses.
Second choice on the morning line at 4-1 is Alternation, who showed promise last year when winning the Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II) and finishing a close second in the Oklahoma Derby. But I don't think anyone could have imagined what a spectacular horse he would turn into this year. In 2012, he is undefeated in four starts, including victories in the Pimlico Special Handicap (gr. III) -- over Nehro and Mission Impazible -- and the Oaklawn Handicap (gr. II) over Ron the Greek. He can adept to any pace scenario, leading if the pace is slow and closing if it is fast, so as long as he doesn't get hung wide from post eight, he should have every opportunity to win the race turning for home.
Fort Larned and Ron the Greek both offer value at 5-1 and 6-1 on the morning line, respectively, and both have run exceptionally well this year. Fort Larned won the Skip Away Stakes (gr. III) in track-record time at Gulfstream Park two starts back, and backed up that effort with a close second to Successful Dan in the Alysheba Stakes (gr. III) last time out. Ron the Greek began the year with a runner-up effort in the Florida Sunshine Millions Classic, then shipped to California and won the Santa Anita Handicap (gr. I) by 3 1/2 lengths. Last time out, he could only manage a second-place finish behind Alternation in the Oaklawn Handicap (gr. II), but in that case, he was attempting to rally into a slow pace. With a quicker pace to run at today, he could rebound in good fashion, although this distance could be just a bit short for him.
This brings us to the question mark horse, Nates Mineshaft. When he runs his top race, he is brilliant. But sometimes, he doesn't. This year, he has won four of five starts, including dominating victories in the New Orleans Handicap (gr. II) and Lone Star Park Handicap (gr. III), for which he received Beyer speed figures of 113 and 107, respectively. In between those two victories, however, he finished sixth in the Alysheba Stakes (gr. II) here at Churchill, beaten over twenty lengths by Successful Dan and Fort Larned. That dismal effort could be explained by the fact that he was rated off the pace, or by a strong disdain for the Churchill main track. His connections have stated that he'll be sent to the lead today, so if that is the ticket to a top effort, then he could prove extremely tough to beat. On the other hand, if Alternation and/or Mission Impazible try to challenge him in the early stages, he may find himself with nothing left in the homestretch.
Speaking of Mission Impazible, he was beaten just a head in this race last year, and is back again to try and secure his first grade I victory. This admirable campaigner has had a busy career full of good efforts in top race, but has only ever won three races, those being the 2011 New Orleans Handicap (gr. II), the 2010 Louisiana Derby (gr. II), and a maiden special weight. But many of his losses have come in grade I stakes races while facing some of the best horses in the country. All told, he has finished second in races like the Donn Handicap (gr. I), Clark Handicap (gr. I), New Orleans Handicap (gr. II), and Mineshaft Handicap (gr. III), in addition to his runner-up effort in last year's Foster. His last race was not all that great, as he finished fourth in the Pimlico Special (gr. III) after rating off the pace, but it's worth noting that he has run well off of poor efforts in the past.
Nehro, who is 8-1 on the morning line, has had a career similar to Mission Impazible's, finishing second in numerous big races while never bringing home a top prize. In his entire career, Nehro has won just twice -- in a maiden special weight and an allowance optional claiming race. But he has finished second in the Kentucky Derby (gr. I), Arkansas Derby (gr. I), Louisiana Derby (gr. II), and Pimlico Special Handicap (gr. III), beaten a total of about 3 1/4 lengths between the four. A one-run type of horse, he'll be among the trailers in the early stages of the Stephen Foster, but if the pace is quick enough, he should be closing fastest of all at the finish.
The last horse to discuss is Rogue Romance, who is 30-1 on the morning line. He was a promising two-year-old in 2010, winning the Bourbon Stakes (gr. III) on the Keeneland turf and finishing a distant third to division champion Uncle Mo in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I). A foot injury limited his 2011 campaign to only one start, but he has come back strongly this year to stamp himself as a horse to watch as the year progresses. He began the year with an impressive three-length victory in an allowance optional claiming race, then finished a dismal last in the Ben Ali Stakes (gr. III) behind Wise Dan, although that poor performance was likely due to a disdain for Polytrack. He rebounded sharply to win an allowance optional claiming race at Churchill Downs by five lengths, signaling that he could be set to run a big race today at a huge price.
My selections are:
1 Wise Dan
2 Mission Impazible
3 Ron the Greek
4 Rogue Romance
Other Races to Watch
At Betfair Hollywood Park . . .
The Vanity Handicap (gr. I) for fillies and mares had originally drawn a terrific field of eight, led by Santa Margarita Handicap (gr. I) winner Include Me Out, two-time grade I winner Zazu, and the speedy front-runner Ellafitz. Unfortunately, minor illness and injury have caused both Zazu and Ellafitz to scratch, leaving Include Me Out as a huge favorite. Rock and Glory could potentially give her a run for her money, as she has won her last two starts by a combined 19 1/2 lengths, but she has never run in a stakes race, and this is a big step up in class.
Also on the Hollywood card are a pair of stakes races for two-year-olds -- the Cinderella Stakes for fillies, and the Willard L. Proctor Memorial Stakes for either gender. In the Proctor, Amarish is a heavy morning line favorite at 7-5 based off of his hugely impressive victory in a 4-1/2 furlong maiden special weight on May 26th. If he runs anywhere near as good today as he did then, he should win without difficulty.
The Cinderella Stakes is a bit more wide open, with seven horses at 6-1 or less on the morning line. There are plenty of talented horses to choose from, including impressive debut winners Unusual Way, Awe' Some Kitten, and Tilde. Awesome Annie also deserves respect based off of a pair of runner-up efforts to Unusual Way and Tilde, respectively, in her only two starts to date.
At Churchill Downs . . .
There are plenty of terrific undercard races to choose from on Stephen Foster day, led by the Fleur de Lis Handicap (gr. II) for fillies and mares. The heavy morning line favorite is Royal Delta, last year's champion three-year-old filly based off of impressive victories in the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (gr. I), Alabama Stakes (gr. I), and Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (gr. II). The only question today is whether or not she is fit enough to win this race in her first start since finishing ninth in the Dubai World Cup (UAE-I) against colts in March. Chances are she will win, but you might want to respect the chances of It's Tea Time. While she has spent the majority of her career racing on turf and synthetic, her dirt efforts have been very good as well, including a victory in the Lake Placid Stakes (gr. III) and a decent fourth in the 2010 Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic. I'm not saying she's going to defeat Royal Delta, but at 10-1, she might be worth considering for second or third.
At Colonial Downs . . .
The highlight of a quartet of stakes events is the $500,000 Colonial Turf Cup for three-year-olds and up. The nine-furlong turf event contains a number of talented turf runners, including Todd Pletcher's speedy Turbo Compressor, two-time graded stakes winner Smart Bid, 2011 Virginia Derby (gr. II) winner Air Support, the talented by somewhat inconsistent Casino Host, and last year's winner Rahystrada. One horse that could offer a price is Humble and Hungry, who is 10-1 on the morning line. Coming off of a second-place finish in the Dixie Stakes (gr. II), in which he rallied well into a moderate pace, I'm confident that he's sitting on another big effort.
Also on the Colonial Downs card is the Edward P. Evans Stakes (gr. III) for fillies and mares going nine furlongs on the turf. Pachattack, a versatile mare that finished third in last year's Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (gr. I), is the morning line favorite based off of a narrow victory in the Hillard Lyons Doubledogdare Stakes (gr. III) last time out. Other logical contenders are La Pernelle, an Irish-bred filly that has won her only U.S. start so far, and Snow Top Mountain, who won the Suwannee River Stakes (gr. III) three starts back.
At Delaware Park . . .
The nine-furlong Obeah Stakes (gr. III) for fillies and mares, a local prep for the $750,000 Delaware Handicap (gr. II) in July, originally drew a field of six, but the scratch of Pachattack to instead run in the Edward P. Evans Stakes (see above) has reducded the field to five. Tiz Miz Sue is the morning line favorite, but is unraced since finishing third in the Apple Blossom Handicap (gr. I) in April. A better bet might be Love and Pride, who has been very consistent this year, and was beaten just a head in the Allaire DuPont Distaff Stakes (gr. III) last time out. It should be a close race, but I give Love and Pride the edge.
-Keelerman
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