Belmont Stakes (gr. I)
Twelve furlongs on the Belmont Park dirt track
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | M. L. Odds |
| 1 | Street Life | Chad Brown | Jose Lezcano | 8-1 |
| 2 | Unstoppable U | Kenny McPeek | Junior Alvarado | 20-1 |
| 3 | Union Rags | John Velazquez | Michael Matz | 3-1 |
| 4 | Atigun | Kenny McPeek | Julien Leparoux | 15-1 |
| 5 | Dullahan | Dale Romans | Javier Castellano | 9-5 |
| 6 | Ravelo's Boy | Manuel Azpurua | Alex Solis | 30-1 |
| 7 | Five Sixteen | Dominick Schettino | Rosie Napravnik | 30-1 |
| 8 | Guyana Star Dweej | Doodnauth Shivmangal | Kent Desormeaux | 30-1 |
| 9 | Paynter | Bob Baffert | Mike Smith | 7-2 |
| 10 | Optimizer | D. Wayne Lukas | Corey Nakatani | 15-1 |
| 12 | My Adonis | Kelly Breen | Ramon Dominguez | 15-1 |
As I did for the Derby and the Preakness, I shall break the field down into three groups: "Unlikely Contenders," "Medium Contenders," and "Win Contenders." Enjoy!
UNLIKELY CONTENDERS
#2 UNSTOPPABLE U - He is undefeated, but with only two starts under his belt, this race is a huge step up in class. A front-running son of Exchange Rate from the barn of Kenny McPeek -- who pulled off a 70-1 upset in the Belmont with Sarava in 2002 -- Unstoppable U clearly has a bright future, but the fact that he is stretching out a full half-mile farther than he has ever run -- in addition to trying two turns for the first time -- makes him one of the longer shots on this race. On the other hand, he has been training well, and he should be able to work out a good trip on the front end, so it might be wise to not completely toss him from consideration.
#7 FIVE SIXTEEN - He's got a strong enough pedigree for this distance, being a son of the exceptional stayer Invasor, but his only victory from six starts came in a nine-furlong maiden special weight, in which the final time was 1:55 flat. That was two starts back; his most recent race was a nine-furlong allowance race against older horses in which he finished a well-beaten fourth. Hard to make a case for him in this tough spot, but weirder things have happened -- Da' Tara comes to mind! :)
#8 GUYANA STAR DWEEJ - This heavily-raced colt started nine times between November 26th and April 27th, claiming one victory and a quintet of seconds in the process. While he seems to be a nice enough colt, he was soundly beaten by Unstoppable U last time out, and would appear to be overmatched in this spot. On the other hand, his pedigree seems to say that he'll enjoy this distance as well as any other, so maybe the distance will help his chances.
MEDIUM CONTENDERS
#1 STREET LIFE - This promising son of Street Sense possesses quite the late kick, which he demonstrated when breaking his maiden and subsequently claiming the Broad Brush Stakes. He followed up those efforts with a disappointing effort in the Wood Memorial (gr. I), then rebounded to finish a strong third in the Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II) here at Belmont Park. The only concern here is that such deep closers rarely win the Belmont, and while he is more than capable of securing a major piece of the purse, he may find himself with too much to do when the real running begins.
#6 RAVELO'S BOY - Most people are tossing this colt from consideration, mainly because he has yet to crack the trifecta in a stakes and still has only two victories from thirteen starts. But I've found a couple of reasons to like his chances. After all, he did emerge from his fifth-place effort in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) with a minor injury, and he has been training unbelievably well over the deep Calder main track. Perhaps he won't win, but don't be surprised if this well-bred colt outruns his odds.
#10 OPTIMIZER - While he has only a single victory from eleven starts, you can't knock this colt's durability. After all, he has made ten consecutive starts in stakes races, which includes solid efforts in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I), Rebel Stakes (gr. II), and With Anticipation Stakes (gr. II) -- on three different surfaces! It's hard to overlook the fact that he has been beaten a combined 48 lengths in his last three starts, but he's beautifully bred for twelve furlongs, and his best effort would make him competitive here. Isn't it about time that trainer D. Wayne Lukas won another Triple Crown race?
#12 MY ADONIS - This last-minute entrant had a legitimate excuse last time out -- the fact that he shipped from New Jersey to Kentucky to Maryland in the span of a few days -- and has enough back class to warrant consideration. He did finish a strong second in the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) in March, and coupled with his bullet five-furlong breeze on May 27th, you can make a case that this speedy colt could be a contender. His connections won this race last year with a 24-1 in Ruler On Ice, and while this colt does have to overcome the far outside post position, the guidance of top jockey Ramon Dominguez should make his task easier.
WIN CONTENDERS
#3 UNION RAGS - Some will argue that his Beyer speed figures have not increased from last year to this year, but the fact is, the poor trips he has received in his last two starts really didn't give him an opportunity to earn big figures. This colt is a long-striding type whose biggest weapon is his high cruising speed -- the ability to lope along at a fast pace without expanding too much energy. He simply doesn't have the acceleration to wait behind horses and burst past them in the homestretch. Nor does he have the ability to muster a tremendous late run from the back of the pack. What this colt needs is an outside trip, which will allow him to stretch his legs and make a move when he wants to. This won't be extremely easy to get while starting from post three, but with John Velazquez in the saddle for the first time, I fully expect him to accomplish it. From there, it's a matter of whether his pedigree can carry him a mile and a half -- which is certainly debatable.
#4 ATIGUN - Perhaps I'm crazy for including this horse among the win contenders, but year after year, we watch huge longshots triumph in the Belmont, and of the longshots, I think this colt is the best one. True, he was soundly beaten in a pair of Oaklawn stakes races during the spring, but he rebounded nicely to win a 1 1/16th miles allowance race last time out. He's got a strong enough pedigree to suggest that he can handle this distance, and with Julien Leparoux in the saddle for trainer Kenny McPeek, I can see him working out a mid-pack trip with a strong finish in the homestretch. Whether he is good enough to win remains to be seen, but if he does, you heard it here first . . . :)
#5 DULLAHAN - With the scratch of I'll Have Another, Dullahan has assumed the role of the favorite. His credentials are strong. He finished third in the Derby, and probably would have won with a better trip. He has been training phenomenally since then. He has top Belmont park jockey Javier Castellano in the saddle. He can't lose, right? While I certainly won't be surprised at all if he wins, I'm going to take a stand against him simply because of his running. Deep closers like Dullahan rarely win the Belmont, for reasons described above. Perhaps his brilliant half-mile drill on June 3rd is a sign that he will try and stay a bit closer to the pace than usual, but chances are, he will be well behind the leaders early on. Another reason I'm leaning toward other horses is the fact that his late charge in the Derby may have been partly an illusion. Many times, we have seen horses closer from impossibly far back in the Kentucky Derby to secure a major piece of the purse, only to watch them disappoint in their next starts when facing a much slower pace. Went the Day Well is a recent example, as is Ice Box from two years ago. Can Dullahan win? Of course he can! But you can't pick every horse.
#9 PAYNTER - Consider this colt the wild card. Racing for the same connections as Derby/Preakness runner-up Bodemeister, this colt has actually been considered for months as the better of the two horses. While he hasn't yet found the success of his more famous stablemate, this lightly-raced son of Awesome Again has demonstrated during his short career that he could eventually be one of the best of his crop. He began his career by winning a 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita by an overwhelmingly easy 4 1/4 lengths. He then stepped up to grade I company in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I), where he ran extremely well given the circumstances to finish fourth, beaten less than four lengths by I'll Have Another. A second-place finish in the Derby Trial Stakes (gr. III) over a sloppy track did little to diminish his reputation, but it was his next start that really got people talking about what kind of a colt he might be. Sent off as the 1-10 favorite in a 1 1/16th miles allowance race at Pimlico, he absolutely dominated in front-running fashion, coasting home under a hand ride to win by 5 3/4 lengths. The victory earned him a Beyer speed figure of 106, by far the highest figure earned by any horse in this race. If you think he is too lightly raced to win the Belmont, you have a valid enough point. And it's true that he is taking a huge step up in distance, not to mention class. But he has been training well, and trainer Bob Baffert wouldn't be running him if he didn't think he had a chance. Plus, he's got as strong a pedigree for this race as anyone else in the field, which could definitely be an asset in those final two furlongs. I say he gets a terrific trip pressing a slow pace before finishing up strongly to pull off a mild upset.
My selections are:
1 Paynter
2 Dullahan
3 Atigun
4 Union Rags
I could really go with any of these four, and I could certainly change my mind during the next twenty-four hours, but for the time being, I feel fairly confident in Paynter's chances.
Here are J.R.'s selections:
1 Dullahan
2 Ravelo's Boy
3 Optimizer
4 Union Rags
J.R. feels that Dullahan was the best horse in the Derby, and will prove that with a dominating victory tomorrow afternoon. He claims the final time will be in the vicinity of 2:26 2/5, further stamping this crop of three-year-olds as one of the best in recent memory.
-Keelerman
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