This is the question that all fans of horse racing are asking themselves, and to be honest, no one knows the answer. You would think that a simple yes or no question would be easy enough to resolve, but in horse racing, that is not the case.
It's a subjective question. It doesn't have a clear-cut answer, like "Do dogs have four legs?" No, a simple yes or no does not suffice to answer this complicated question.
Sort of.
Let me offer a disclaimer -- yes, I'll Have Another can win the Triple Crown. There is nothing stopping him if he is good enough. He has won the first two legs of the series, and as long as he enters the starting gate for the Belmont Stakes, he can win the Triple Crown.
That part is not subjective. It's that "if he is good enough?" part that has everyone puzzling over the real answer to the question.
In this post, I shall attempt to delve into the details of I'll Have Another's racing career, preparation, and breeding in an effort to discover whether the odds of him winning are better than the odds of him losing. Along the way, we shall discover his potential strengths and weaknesses, and if all goes well, by the time we reach the end of this post, we should have a fair idea of whether or not I'll Have Another can win the Triple Crown.
RACING CAREER
First things first -- does I'll Have Another have the racing foundation to win the Triple Crown?
If anything is going to stand in him way of sweeping the Crown, it's probably his foundation. Every Triple Crown winner to date made at least six starts prior to the Kentucky Derby, most of them made more than six. In fact, Whirlaway raced an incredible 23 times prior to the Derby!
The following chart details the eleven Triple Crown winners and the amount of preparation they had prior to the start of the series:
Horse: Total # of starts prior to Derby (# of juvenile races/# of Derby preps)
| Horse | Total # of starts prior to Derby | # of starts at age 2 | # of Derby preps |
| Affirmed | 13 | 9 | 4 |
| Seattle Slew | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Secretariat | 12 | 9 | 3 |
| Citation | 16 | 9 | 7 |
| Assault | 11 | 9 | 2 |
| Count Fleet | 17 | 15 | 2 |
| Whirlaway | 23 | 16 | 7 |
| War Admiral | 8 | 6 | 2 |
| Omaha | 11 | 9 | 2 |
| Gallant Fox | 8 | 7 | 1 |
| Sir Barton | 6 | 6 | 0 |
As we can see, of all of the Triple Crown winners, Seattle Slew had the least amount of racing experience as a juvenile, making only three starts. He, along with Sir Barton, had the least number of starts prior to the Derby.
I'll Have Another, like Seattle Slew, also made three starts as a juvenile. But unlike Slew, who started in three Derby preps, I'll Have Another only raced two times in the spring before the Derby, giving him a total of five starts heading into the Triple Crown.
Interestingly, while the majority of Triple Crown winners were heavily raced as juveniles, 6 of the 11 made two or fewer starts in the spring before the Derby; Sir Barton actually didn't run in any spring preps at all. So I'll Have Another's two starts this spring will be unlikely to hinder his chances of sweeping the Crown.
In conclusion, while it is true that I'll Have Another hasn't raced quite as often as any of the Triple Crown winners, his possible lack of foundation isn't really all that bad. Coupled with the fact that the majority of his prospective Belmont rivals have been campaigned in similar fashion, one realizes that racing foundation is probably the least of I'll Have Another's worries.
PEDIGREE
Perhaps there were some questions about the pedigrees of Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, and Big Brown heading into the Belmont Stakes -- questions about their ability to traverse the mile-and-a-half distance of the race -- but there is no such question regarding I'll Have Another. His sire, Flower Alley, won the Travers Stakes (gr. I) going ten furlongs and finished second in the Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I) at that same distance. His grandsire, Distorted Humor, is the sire of 2010 Belmont Stakes winner Drosselmeyer.
On the dam side, I'll Have Another's broodmare sire is Arch, sire of 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic winner Blame. He is also a good source of stamina. Going a bit further back, we encounter the great Roberto, possibly one of the strongest stamina influences of all. Through in names like Danzig, Nijinsky II, Sea-Bird, Stage Door Johnny, Alydar, Princequillo -- and of course, a bit of Northern and Mr. Prospector -- need I say more?
RUNNING STYLE
All handicapping logic would seem to say that deep closers should win the Belmont the majority of the time. If a horse is gaining furiously at the finish of a nine-furlong race, wouldn't it stand to reason that the same horse would relish the additional three furlongs provided by the Belmont Stakes?
Actually, this is almost never the case. Perhaps it is due to the fact that the early pace in a race like the Belmont is usually slower than in shorter races, meaning that the closers are left with too much ground to make up on horses that still have something left in the tank.
On the other end of the spectrum, front-runners rarely win the Belmont either -- due probably to the length of the race, which most certainly does not lend itself to a gate-to-wire job. To accomplish that feat in a race like the Belmont requires the performance of a lifetime by a truly special horse.
Nor is the Belmont won by horses that make explosive moves around the far turn. Any horse that dares attempt such a move may take the lead entering the homestretch -- but good luck keeping it. The Belmont homestretch is quite lengthy, and a horse that moves on the turn tends to end up tiring in deep stretch, allowing a more patient horse to secure the victory.
So what running style does win the Belmont? Well, in most cases, the Belmont winner is a horse that is able to rate patiently in mid-pack early on, or else right behind the early leaders, and finish up with a strong run in the homestretch -- not on the turn. The ability to maintain a solid drive for five-sixteenths of a mile is also helpful.
Fortunately, I'll Have Another possesses such a running style. We saw him rate in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, and we saw him press the pace in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. And we certainly saw in the Preakness that he has the ability to just keep grinding away in the stretch.
I'll Have Another's running style is most definitely not a detriment. He has perhaps the perfect running style for the Belmont, and that alone could lead him to victory.
POTENTIAL WEAKNESSES
So does I'll Have Another have any weaknesses heading into the Belmont? I could only come up with a few, and they are most certainly minor ones.
First off, let's talk about his possible dislike for mud. In his only start over an off track, in Saratoga's Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) last September, I'll Have Another turned in by far the worst performance of his career, finishing a dismal sixth while beaten nearly twenty lengths. Of course, he did come out of the race with sore shins, which certainly could have contributed to the poor performance. But the question is, was the poor performance a result of the sore shins, or were the sore shins the result of racing in mud?
Of course, the possibility of a muddy track on Belmont day is really pretty small, and chances are that even if the track were muddy, I'll Have Another would handle it just as well as anyone else. But I do believe this counts as a potential weakness.
Then of course, there is the fact that I'll Have Another will not be allowed to wear a nasal strip in the Belmont -- a piece of equipment which he has worn in all of his victories this year. I doubt the absence of the strip will have much of an impact on his performance, for it is a fairly minor piece of equipment, but it definitely counts as a potential weakness, for we don't know for sure how it will affect him.
Another weakness could potentially be his jockey, Mario Gutierrez -- although I seriously doubt it. Some jockeys without experience at Belmont Park make their moves too soon on the far turn, leaving their mounts without enough punch to hang on in the homestretch. But the fact is, Gutierrez has ridden this horse so well in all of his races this year, that I doubt the larger circumference of Belmont Park is going to be an issue. In addition, Gutierrez is going to get in some valuable riding experience here at Belmont during the coming week, so I really doubt that he will make a mistake in the big race itself. But I suppose technically you could count this as a potential weakness.
Other than that, I can't seem to come up with any more chinks in the armor of I'll Have Another. He appears to be heading into the Belmont as one of the most solid potential Triple Crown winners in years. If anything beats him, it won't be his foundation, pedigree, or running style. If he loses, it will most likely be a simple matter of another horse being superior under the circumstances.
So can I'll Have Another win the Triple Crown? My answer is yes. And not just the un-subjective kind of yes. In my opinion, I'll Have Another is going to become racing's twelfth Triple Crown winner.
Am I positive? No. But I am very, very confident, and in horse racing, that is as close to a definitive "yes" as you can get.
-Keelerman
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