Triple Bend Handicap (gr. I)
Seven furlongs on the Betfair Hollywood Park Cushion Track
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Tres Borrachos | Victor Espinoza |
| 2 | Centralinteligence | Jose Valdivia, Jr. |
| 3 | Mobilized | Garrett Gomez |
| 4 | Don Tito | Martin Pedroza |
| 5 | Camp Victory | Joe Talamo |
| 6 | The Factor | Rafael Bejarano |
| 7 | Smiling Tiger | Mike Smith |
| 8 | Comma to the Top | (Scratched) |
| 9 | Italian Rules | Kevin Krigger |
The biggest question in this race is whether or not The Factor, a two-time grade I winner from the barn of Bob Baffert, can rebound from a highly disappointing performance last time out in the Dubai Golden Shaheen (UAE-I), halfway across the world at Meydan racecourse. That day, he was uncharacteristically dull, never flashing his blinding speed at any point in the race. Perhaps it was the trip across the world, or the night racing, or the synthetic surface -- or perhaps a combination of all three -- but the fact is, The Factor is better than that, and has been training very well for his return. He should appreciate the distance of this race, for he is a perfect 4-for-4 at seven furlongs, but it is worth noting that he lost his only start here at Hollywood and may be better on dirt than on synthetic.
Another major question in this race is whether or not Smiling Tiger, a six-time graded stakes winner, is past his prime. His best year came in 2010, when he Ancient Title Stakes (gr. I), Bing Crosby Stakes (gr. I), and Lazaro Barrera Memorial Stakes (gr. III), in addition to placing in the Breeders' Cup Sprint (gr. I), Malibu Stakes (gr. I), and Pat O'Brien Stakes (gr. I). He was plenty good in 2011 as well, sweeping to victories in the Triple Bend Handicap (gr. I), San Carlos Handicap (gr. II), and Count Fleet Handicap (gr. III). But this year, he has only managed to finish third in the True North Handicap (gr. II) and fifth in the Churchill Downs Stakes (gr. II), and on neither occasion did he showcase his typical early speed. Perhaps a return to Hollywood Park can help him find the winner's circle, and it would be nice to see him repeat in this race, but he's going to have to dramatically reverse his form in order to do so.
So there you have it -- the two race favorites, and both seem a bit vulnerable. If they both falter, there are a number of other horses that could pick up the pieces, including Mobilized, Centralinteligence, and Camp Victory. Mobilized is a veteran of the California circuit, having made all twenty-three of his starts in the state, but the versatile six-year-old seems to be only now reaching his peak. If you toss out his fifth-place finish in the American Handicap (gr. II) on turf last time out, you easily see that he is in great form. Two starts back, he won the 7-1/2 furlong Tiznow Stakes here at Hollywood Park by a terrific 7 1/4 lengths -- despite rallying from eleven lengths off the pace! It was about as impressive has you can imagine, and I feel he's up to doing it again so long as there is a moderately quick pace in front of him.
Centralinteligence is also in good form, having won an allowance race impressively two starts back before finishing a strong second to a loose-on-the-lead Roman Threat in the Los Angeles Handicap (gr. III) here at Hollywood. The pace scenario of this race seems to suit him a bit better, so don't be surprised if this colt waits just off of the early pace before pouncing in the homestretch.
As for Camp Victory, he finished second in this race behind Smiling Tiger one year ago, and backed up that effort with another strong second in the Pat O'Brien Stakes (gr. I) to The Factor, but his form this year has only been so-so. He began 2012 by finishing third Potrero Grande Handicap (gr. II) to Amazombie and Roman Threat before finishing third yet again in the above-discussed Los Angeles Handicap. He was badly beaten in neither performance, but he would likely need a very fast pace to set up his late run, and it's hard to say for sure whether or not he will get it.
One horse that may be a bit overlooked is Tres Borrachos, a seven-year-old gelding that is 8-1 on the morning line. He record of four wins in thirty-eight starts might not inspire confidence in his chances, but he was in good form all last year, and while his two starts this year haven't been all that great, I feel like he had logical excuses in both. Believe it or not, he has only sprinted three times in his entire career -- one of those being his debut performance. I think he will appreciate the cutback in distance, and with sufficient pace in front of him, he could be picking off horses late.
The two longshots are Italian Rules, a capable allowance runner that has not finished worse than second since October 2010, and Don Tito, who finished third in an allowance race on the turf last time out.
My selections are:
1 Mobilized
2 Centralinteligence
3 Tres Borrachos
4 The Factor
Other Races of Note
At Betfair Hollywood Park . . .
Race 9: The Shoemaker Mile Stakes (gr. I) at a mile on turf has drawn a terrific field of eight, including seven graded stakes winners. Mr. Commons is the morning line favorite, for he has plenty of talent and rarely fails to fire, but he has lost a couple of close races this year in which appeared to have the race sewn up. He could certainly find the winner's circle today, but if he falters again, there are plenty of horses here capable of handing him a defeat. One of them is the speedy Little Mike, who won the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic Stakes (gr. I) at Churchill Downs last time out after being allowed to set a slow pace. That may be tough today, however, with the presence of fellow front-runner Liberian Freighter.
Perhaps the most intriguing horse in this race is Suggestive Boy, and Argentinean import making his first start for trainer Ronald McAnally. In his native country, he won four of his six starts, with all four victories coming in group I races. His final times, subjective as though can be, have been phenomenal -- he once ran "about" one mile on turf in 1:32 2/5, and "about" ten furlongs in 1:58 flat. He's had plenty of experience racing counter-clockwise, as he will today, so the switch to a U.S. course shouldn't be too much of an issue. The only other real concern is that he hasn't raced since October, but he has been breezing steadily and should be ready to roll.
Other major contenders include the consistent graded stakes winner Jeranimo, the up-and-coming eastern shipper Corporate Jungle, and the 5-for-6 Dubai You X Y Z.
At Belmont Park . . .
Race 9: The ten-furlong New York Stakes (gr. II), for fillies and mares on the turf, is only expected to have six starters -- Acting Happy is entered for the main track only -- but there's plenty of talent in the race, including possible division leader Aruna. Trained by Graham Motion, the five-year-old mare had a strong season last year, culminating with a victory in the Juddmonte Spinster Stakes (gr. I) at Keeneland and a narrow defeat in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (gr. I). She began this year by finishing sixth and last in a paceless edition of the Jenny Wiley Stakes (gr. I), then rebounded sharply to win the Sheepshead Bay Stakes (gr. II) here at Belmont last time out. In that race, she beat -- among others -- Hit it Rich, Mystical Star, and Principal Role, all of which are returning to face her again.
Aruna's main opposition will likely come from the Irish-bred Banimpire, who will be making her first start in the U.S. after winning numerous stakes events in Europe at such prestigious tracks as Ascot and Curragh. Her new trainer, Chad Brown, has done well with European imports in the past, including last year's Eclipse champion turf female Stacelita, and while Banimpire may need to get a start under her belt before arriving at peak form, she should be a formidable contender today and could conceivably pull off an upset.
Race 10: The $200,000 Dwyer Stakes (gr. II) may not have drawn the best three-year-olds of the year, but the group of seven set to contest this 1 1/16th miles race should nevertheless provide an interesting show. The morning line favorite is Teeth of the Dog, who is coming off of an authoritative victory in the Easy Goer Stakes last time out at Belmont Park. He may not have beaten much in terms of top three-year-olds, but he was visually impressive, and his final time was strong enough. He looks like the one to beat.
If anyone is going to pull off an upset, it will probably be Zetterholm, who is coming off of a fourth-place finish in the Preakness Stakes (gr. I), in which he finished 3 1/4 lengths ahead of Teeth of the Dog. He should appreciate the distance of this race, cutting back in distance from the Preakness, and a good trip to set up his late run may be all he needs to find the winner's circle.
Unstoppable U, sixth in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) after winning his first two starts, and Morgan's Guerrilla, who finished second in the Illinois Derby (gr. III) three starts back, are other logical contenders. Fast Falcon, who finished second to Teeth of the Dog in the Easy Goer Stakes, could also be a contender at a price.
At Churchill Downs . . .
Race 5: The seven-furlong, $73,600 Roxelana Stakes for fillies and mares is not the feature of the card, but it's worth noting nevertheless because it marks the second start of the year for Sassy Image, a two-time grade I winner last year. She went to the sidelines last August after suffering an injury when finishing last in the Ballerina Stakes (gr. I) at Saratoga, and did not return until the Humana Distaff Stakes (gr. I) last month, where she finished a disappointing sixth. This race looks like a good spot to get her back on track, and assuming she rebounds, it should set her up well from a strong second-half of the year.
Race 6: Two-year-old colts are the star of the card, as eight of them are scheduled to head to post for the six-furlong Bashford Manor Stakes (gr. III). There are plenty of interesting contenders to choose from, with not a lot separating them -- after all, once you've seen one maiden victory, you've seen them all! :)
The morning line favorite is Special Jo, based off of his impressive debut victory here at Churchill on May 25th, in which he won by six lengths after dueling for the lead. However, he'll likely have to run even better today in order to defeat the likes of Roman's Avenue, Positively, Good Tickled, and Circle Unbroken. All are coming off of impressive victories, and any one of them could pull off a mild upset. Perhaps most interesting down the road will be Roman's Avenue and Positively, as both have strong pedigrees that could make them contenders later in the year, as the races get longer.
At Prairie Meadows . . .
Race 8: The $250,000 Iowa Derby (gr. III) marks the return of last year's juvenile champion Hansen, unraced since finishing off-the-board in the Kentucky Derby (gr. I). This race looks like an absolutely perfect spot for Hansen -- a mile and a sixteenth, lesser-quality three-year-olds -- it should get him right back on track for bigger races down the road.
His main opposition today will likely come from Alsvid, a talented colt that has won two stakes races here at Prairie Meadows this year, those being the Golden Circle and Prairie Mile Stakes. What could make this race particularily interesting is that Alsvid, like Hansen, has a great deal of early speed. While both Alsvid and Hansen have shown the ability to rate in the past, it will be interesting to see which one gets the lead today.
Then again, the possibility exists that neither could get the lead. That honor could potentially go to Hero of Order, who upset the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) earlier this year at odds of 109-1. He has been disappointing since then, but a return to dirt, coupled with a smaller field, could set him up for another big run.
All told, it should be an interesting battle for the early lead!
Race 9: The Iowa Derby may be an interesting race, but it's not nearly as fascinating as the $300,000 Prairie Meadows Cornhusker Handicap (gr. III). The nine-furlong race is absolutely loaded with talent, like Alysheba Stakes (gr. III) winner Successful Dan, the track-record setting Fort Larned, veteran grade I winner Awesome Gem, in addition to the last two winners of this race, Headache (2011) and Shadowbdancing (2010). This isn't the kind of race that you try to handicap. This is the kind of race you just sit back and enjoy. Personally, I would be cheering for my old favorite Awesome Gem, but I expect to see Successful Dan prove his quality by adding another graded stakes victory to his record.
-Keelerman
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