Mother Goose Stakes (gr. I)
1 1/16th miles on the Belmont Park dirt track
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Believe You Can | Rosie Napravnik |
| 2 | Contested | Javier Castellano |
| 3 | Disposablepleasure | Ramon Dominguez |
| 4 | Wildcat's Smile | Jose Lezcano |
| 5 | Zo Impressive | Rajiv Maragh |
The field size for this prestigious grade I event may be on the small side, but the race is definitely not small on talent. All told, the five runners have won eight stakes, six graded stakes, and a pair of grade Is -- in addition to placing in seven other stakes races.
The narrow morning line favorite at 7-5 is Contested, from the barn of Bob Baffert. A lightly raced but super-talented daughter of Ghostzapper, she brings a four-race win streak into the Mother Goose, culminating with a five-length victory in the Acorn Stakes (gr. I) here at Belmont last time out. She certainly isn't a lock here -- after all, her superb Acorn effort may have been partly due to the fact that she set an uncontested pace over a speed-favoring track -- but she may simply be the fastest horse in the race, and shouldn't really have any trouble getting to the front.
The other top contender, at odds of 8-5 on the morning line, is Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) victory Believe You Can, who will be making her first start since claiming the Lilies on the day before the Kentucky Derby. Like Contested, Belive You Can possesses a great deal of natural speed, perhaps even enough to beat Contested to the early lead. However, she seems to be at her best rating just behind the early leader, a strategy she used with success in the Oaks, so I wouldn't be surprised to see her settle back and allow Contested to grab the early lead before moving up on the backstretch to apply some pressure. She's turned in a pair of :59 3/5 five-furlong breezes during the last couple of weeks, so it's clear that she's fit. She also has a victory over the Belmont Park main track, having won the Tempted Stakes (gr. III) here last fall. The only question is whether she is good enough to catch Contested in this one-turn race.
Of the other three fillies, the one with the best chance of pulling an upset is probably Zo Impressive. She's actually even less experienced than Contested, with only four starts under belt, but those four starts have yielded a pair of wins, as well as a pair of seconds in graded stakes company. Last time out, she finished five lengths behind Contested in the Acorn Stakes, but I thought she ran very well while attempting to rally over a speed-favoring track. Assuming no bias emerges at Belmont today, and assuming Believe You Can doesn't let Contested escape with an easy lead, I would expect to see Zo Impressive putting in a good rally at the finish.
Disposablepleasure, from the barn of Todd Pletcher, enters this race off of a second-place finish in the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (gr. II) at Pimlico. She was one of the early Kentucky Oaks favorites after winning the Demoiselle Stakes (gr. II) at Aqueduct despite stumbling badly at the start, but she disappointed in her first two starts of the year, finishing fourth in the Davona Dale Stakes (gr. II) and a distant third in the Fair Grounds Oaks (gr. II). However, she showed significant improvement in her third start of the year -- the above mentioned Black-Eyed Susan Stakes -- and rallied well to finish second despite a tough trip. Seeing that Pletcher won the Mother Goose last year with a filly coming off of a runner-up effort in the Black-Eyed Susan, I wouldn't be surprised if he can produce a similar result this year, especially with top jockey Ramon Dominguez in the saddle.
The last filly to discuss is the longshot Wildcat's Smile, a New York-bred filly that finished second to Disposablepleasure in the Demoiselle Stakes last year. She began 2012 at Aqueduct by winning a seven-furlong allowance race for state-breds before finishing a tiring third in the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes. She has trained well enough since then, and should appreciate the cutback to one-turn, but the distance of the Mother Goose may simply be a bit beyond her range.
My selections are:
1 Contested
2 Zo Impressive
3 Believe You Can
4 Disposablepleasure
These are admittedly uncreative selections, but I think that Believe You Can could find herself in the unenviable task of trying to put enough pressure on Contested while trying to save something for the homestretch. In her first start since that tough effort in the Kentucky Oaks, it wouldn't surprise me if she tires just a bit in the homestretch, allowing Zo Impressive to rally for the runner-up spot. But I am fairly confident that Contested will prove best yet again, seizing command of the division with another gate-to-wire victory.
Other Races of Note
At Betfair Hollywood Park . . .
The highlight of the card is the $150,000 Hollywood Oaks (gr. II), where grade I winners Killer Graces, Eden's Moon, and Willa B Awesome will square off at a mile and a sixteenth. Each has virtues. Killer Graces won her grade I -- the Hollywood Starlet Stakes -- over the Hollywood Park Cushion Track, whereas Willa B Awesome and Eden's Moon have both done their best running on the Santa Anita dirt. Willa B Awesome has beaten both Eden's Moon and Killer Graces in the past, and is in good form, but her best races have come over the Santa Anita dirt track. Eden's Moon is probably the quickest filly in the race, and is trained by the masterful Bob Baffert, but is coming off of a last-place finish in the Kentucky Oaks. Who you select is a matter of preference, but I won't be surprised to see Killer Graces in the winners circle following a return to her favorite racetrack. And if you like up-and-comers, don't count out Potesta, who broke her maiden by 11 1/2 lengths here at Hollywood last time out.
At Churchill Downs . . .
A pair of stakes races highlight the Saturday card, including the Debutante Stakes (gr. III) for two-year-old fillies. The morning line favorite is Blueeyesintherein, who broke her maiden in dominating fashion on May 31st, winning a 4-1/2 furlong maiden special weight by 3 3/4 lengths. The runner-up, Shesakitty, is also entered in this spot even though she has yet to win a race, probably because she overcame a poor start to rally strongly in the homestretch. The additional distance in the Debutante, coupled with a hopefully cleaner start, could help her chances. Other logical contenders are Richie'slilcowgirl, a first-time out winner from Arlington Park; Quiet Sucess, who broke her maiden at Churchill on May 2nd; and debut winner Floral Sky.
The other stakes race on the card is the seven-furlong Kelly's Landing Stakes, won two years ago by eventual grade I winner Here Comes Ben. This year's edition has drawn a field of nine, in which Golden Frontier and Cal Nation are the two favorites. The first-mentioned colt is very lightly raced, having only four starts on his record, but he could not have looked better winning a 6-1/2 furlong allowance race here at Churchill on May 24th by 11 1/2 lengths. His final time of 1:15.68 was highly impressive, and he looks like a future graded stakes winner. As for Cal Nation, he made headlines in the winter of 2011 when he broke his maiden by 7 3/4 lengths at Gulfstream Park, but he subsequently failed to live up to expectations, and only found the winner's circle once during the remainder of the year. However, he did look good in his 2012 debut last month, winning a six-furlong maiden special weight at Monmouth by a neck, and he is eligible to improve in his second start of the year.
One other horse worth mentioning is Noble's Promise, who won the grade I Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) back in 2009. Since then, he has become a capable sprinter, winning the Aristides Stakes (gr. III) here at Churchill last year and performing moderately well in a number of other stakes. However, his form this year has not been very good at all, for he has not managed to finish better than third in four starts, and failed to hit the board in two stakes attempts. Perhaps he can reach back into his past and pull out another high-class effort later this afternoon, but it seems that age is beginning to catch up to him.
At Monmouth Park . . .
Sophomore fillies on the turf comprise the feature race of the card, the $100,000 Boiling Springs Stakes (gr. III) at a mile and a sixteenth. Nine entered, but two scratches have reduced the field size to seven. The morning line favorite is Somali Lemonade, winner of the J P Morgan Chase Jessamine Stakes (gr. III) at Keeneland last fall. She's had a bit of trouble returning to form this year, as she could only manage a second in the Appalachian Stakes (gr. III) and a fourth in the Sands Point Stakes (gr. II), but this looks like an easy spot to get back on track, and she should have every chance at finding the winner's circle this time around.
Her main competition will likely come from Dancing Solo, a talented daughter of Giant's Causeway from the barn of Todd Pletcher. She enters this race off of an impressive victory in the Little Silver Stakes at Monmouth Park, in which she closed strongly to win by a length and a half. Time will tell if she is in the same class as Somali Lemonade, but I think she looks like a major contender.
Other major contenders include Zultanite, who finished five lengths in front of Somali Lemonade in the Sands Point Stakes; Glamour N Glory, the runner-up to Dancing Solo in the Little Silver Stakes; and Destiny's Child, a German-bred filly owned by Team Valor International that will be making her first start in the United States.
At Parx Racing . . .
A field of six, reduced from eight by two scratches, is set to start in the $150,000 Donald LeVine Memorial Handicap this afternoon. The morning line favorite is Golddigger's Boy, who has won five of his seven starts here at Parx, including last year's Donald LeVine. He's been in good form this year, and looks to have an excellent chance at adding another stakes victory to his record.
Toby's Corner may very well end up going off as the second choice, despite the fact that he has yet to win a race this year. Winner of the Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I) in 2011, he went to the sidelines with an injury shortly thereafter, returning to the races earlier this year to finish third in both the General George Handicap (gr. II) and New Orleans Handicap (gr. II) before finishing seventh of nine in the Pimlico Special Stakes (gr. III). If he can regain his 2011 form, he could be a serious threat from off the pace.
Another obvious contender is Sloane Ranger, who won an allowance optional claiming race last time out while defeating Golddigger's Boy. A repeat of that performance could be sufficient to secure him the victory. Also intriguing is Ponzi Scheme, winner of the Decathlon Stakes at Monmouth Park last time out. True, he didn't beat much that day after many of the runners were involved in an accident, but he's got class, and he should appreciate the seven-furlong distance of this race.
-Keelerman
No comments:
Post a Comment