Yesterday was a good day of racing, with the Travers Stakes (gr. I) headlining a terrific Saratoga card that included three other graded stakes races, but Sunday promises to be even better. Three graded stakes events are scheduled to be run at Del Mar, including the $1,000,000 Pacific Classic (gr. I), which has drawn a truly spectacular field featuring seven grade or group I winners. Plus, at Saratoga, two of the best fillies in the country are set to face off in the $600,000 Personal Ensign Handicap (gr. I), a race that could go a long way toward settling the Eclipse awards at the end of the year. Let's start handicapping!
TVG Pacific Classic (gr. I)
10 furlongs on the Del Mar Polytrack
#1 Rail Trip: This seven-year-old gelding won a number of graded stakes races in 2009 and 2010 for trainer Ron Ellis, including the 2009 Hollywood Gold Cup (gr. I), but went off-form after being shipped to New York and transferred to the barn of Rick Dutrow. After going winless in five starts, he was shipped back to California and returned to Ron Ellis, for whom he has slowly returned to form over the course of three starts. Last time out, he turned a pace-tracking trip into a half-length victory in the San Diego Handicap (gr. II) here at Del Mar, and while he will be stretching out beyond nine furlongs for the first time in nearly two years, his class and recent workouts suggest that he could be sitting on another improved performance.
#2 Amani: This top Chilean filly won ten of eleven starts in her native country, dominating group I races by as many as twenty-five lengths and beating colts on a couple of occasions. Brought to the United States for a 2012 campaign, she made her debut for new trainer Neil Drysdale just last month in the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes (gr. I), rallying from eight lengths behind at the eighth pole to finish third, beaten just 1 3/4 lengths. However, the 1 1/16th-miles distance of that race was almost undoubtedly too short for her, and looking over her past performances, it appears that she will relish the added distance of today's race and looms as a legitimate upset contender.
#3 Richard's Kid: He's won this race twice, in 2009 and 2010, and enters this year's renewal off of a easy victory in the Cougar II Stakes (gr. III) here at Del Mar; this will be his first start for trainer Leandro Mora, having been sold just last week to new connections, and while he was beaten fairly easily by Game On Dude last time out, the switch to Polytrack should help him turn the tables on his former stablemate. Don't count him out of the mix.
#4 Where's Sterling: Calder-shipper is coming off of consecutive victories in the Memorial Day Handicap and Mecke Stakes at that track; tough to conceive him shipping across the country and winning a million-dollar race on Polytrack, but he did run well earlier this year in the Donn Handicap (gr. I) and really isn't that far off the top contenders in terms of Beyer speed figures. Look for him to rally well in the homestretch if he takes to the Polytrack and possibility secure a piece of the superfecta.
#5 Dullahan: The lone three-year-old in this field has won only two races, but both were on Polytrack and both were grade I events. He passed on yesterday's Travers Stakes to run here instead, his connections feeling that he is at his best over synthetic surfaces than he is on dirt, which certainly seems true. He is capable of unleashing a terrific turn of foot when circumstances are ideal, and so long as the early pace is moderately quick, you can bet that Dullahan will be running hard at the finish. Can he win a race of this caliber in his first start against older horses? That remains to be seen. But I don't think he will disgrace himself.
#6 Akkadian: Huge longshot has won just three races in his career -- a maiden special weight and two allowance optional claiming races. In addition, he has failed to hit the board in four stakes attempts, none of them grade Is. He is in career-best form this year, with a victory and two seconds from three starts, but he's stepping way up in class and a win would be a shock.
#7 Jaycito: Son of Victory Gallop won the 2010 Norfolk Stakes (gr. I) as a juvenile, then went off-form and failed to find the winner's circle again until just last month, when he took an allowance optional claiming race by a length here at Del Mar. Trained by Bob Baffert, you have to respect Jaycito's chances, as he appears to be the type that would relish ten furlongs and he has been training quite well. Then again, his highest Beyer speed figure is a 93, earned last time out, and even a drastic ten-point improvement might not be enough to get him the win.
#8 Suggestive Boy: Lightly-raced Argentina-bred colt won four group I races in his native country, then was transferred to the barn of Ronald McAnally and ran second to the high-class Jeranimo in the Shoemaker Mile Stakes (gr. I). His next start yielded a sharp victory in the restricted Wickerr Stakes going one-mile on the turf here at Del Mar, and while ten furlongs on Polytrack is a vastly different type of race, one must note that he won at ten furlongs in Argentina and has been training exceptionally well over the Del Mar Polytrack. A victory would not be surprising, as he appears to have a tremendous amount of potential and McAnally has had a lot of success with these South American imports.
#9 Game On Dude: The expected race favorite is coming off of consecutive wins in the Califorian Handicap (gr. II) and Hollywood Gold Cup (gr. I), earning speed figures that tower over those earned by his rivals. Trained by Bob Baffert, he has been training extremely well here at Del Mar and may find himself on a lonely lead, but it is worth noting that his worst performance in many months came in last year's Pacific Classic, where he was run off his feet by Acclamation and finished a dull fourth. Perhaps it was a fluke; perhaps it signals a dislike for the Del Mar Polytrack. But regardless, he is a much better horse this year than he was last year, and is a deserving favorite to add this prestigious race to his record.
#10 Riveting Reason: This colt has only ever won a single race, that being a maiden special weight way back in November 2010. He has shown enough talent in the past to place in a trio of graded stakes races, but he hasn't cracked the trifecta in about 1 1/2 years and may go off as the longest shot in the race. However, he does possess a decent amount of tactical speed, which he used to finish a close fourth in an allowance race here at Del Mar last month. If jockey David Flores sends him earlier, he could potentially make things difficult for Game On Dude -- although it is difficult to envision him out-dueling the race favorite.
With all due respect to Game On Dude, I am going to take a shot with Amani and hope that the superfilly improves in her second start of the year. Distance, as mentioned above, should not be an issue for her, and she seemed to like the Polytrack well enough in her last start. Richard's Kid, Dullahan, and Suggestive Boy also intrigue me. But regardless of who wins, this is shaping up to be one of the best Pacific Classics in many a year, and you can bet that we will be seeing something special later tonight.
Other Races of Note
At Del Mar . . .
Race 5: There are two supporting stakes races on the Pacific Classic card, the first being the $250,000 Pat O'Brien Stakes (gr. II) at seven furlongs on the Polytrack. Camp Victory will likely be favored off of his impressive victory over The Factor in last month's Triple Bend Handicap (gr. I), but Bob Baffert has a pair of runners in Coil and Capital Account that could potentially pull off an upset. Coil won the 2011 Haskell Invitational Stakes (gr. I) and most recently won a seven-furlong allowance race in excellent fashion, while Capital Account finished third to champion sprinter Amazombie in the Bing Crosby Stakes (gr. I) and seems to be improving with every start. Mobilized, who was third in the Triple Bend, could also rally for a piece.
Race 7: The $200,000 Del Mar Mile Handicap (gr. II) may have only drawn six horses, but those six are so evenly matched that it is a nearly impossible race to handicap. Jeranimo is coming off of a victory in the Shoemaker Mile (gr. I) and will likely be favored, but Obviously won a one-mile allowance race last time out in 1:32.41 seconds and possesses a rare combination of tactical speed and turn-of-foot that could make him tough to beat. Furthermore, Mr. Commons has won three graded stakes races on the turf and is a super-talented turf miler, and the six-year-old Norvsky is also in exceptional form. Expect a close finish and a brilliant final time!
At Saratoga . . .
The $600,000 Personal Ensign Handicap (gr. I) headlines the card, and it's drawn a terrific field that includes Royal Delta and It's Tricky. You can read my full analysis here: http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/08/saratoga-stakes-analysis-august-26th.html
-Keelerman
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