The highlights of an intriguing Sunday card are a pair of graded stakes races for two-year-olds -- the $200,000 Adirondack Stakes (gr. II) for fillies and the $200,000 Saratoga Special Stakes (gr. II) for either gender. We shall begin our analysis with the Saratoga Special, which is scheduled to have six starters following the scratch of likely favorite Shanghai Bobby.
So with Shanghai Bobby out, favoritism will likely fall on Spurious Precision, a promising son of High Cotton that broke his maiden impressively on the second day of this Saratoga meet. Trained by Richard Violette Jr., Spurious Precision tracked a quick pace in his debut and drew off powerfully in the stretch to win the 5-1/2 furlong race by 3 1/2 lengths, and while the colt was entered in today's race at the last minute -- replacing his stablemate Carried Interest, who was out with a sore shin -- he is obviously very talented and looms as the most likely winner of this race.
Southern Honor will probably emerge as the second choice based off of his 7 3/4-length maiden victory at Parx Racing on July 4th. Trained by Anthony Dutrow, the colt is now stretching out an additional two furlongs, and shipping to a tougher circuit, but the fact that Dutrow is trying it signals that he has a lot of confidence in his runner. The jockey switch to Ramon Dominguez, by far the leading rider of the meet, doesn't hurt either.
Facing open company for the first time is In Harm's Way, who disappointed in his debut against New York-bred maidens before coming back to win a similar race by 4 3/4 lengths. From a Beyer speed figure perspective, he looms as the second-best horse in the race behind Spurious Precision; however, it's difficult to say how the large step up in class will affect him. Drawing the rail may also prove to be a disadvantage.
Drum Roll, from the barn of Todd Pletcher, looms as an intriguing contender. Sold for $300,000 as a 2yo-in-training, he showed good speed in his debut at Monmouth and drew off to win by 2 3/4 lengths; breaking from the far outside today, he figures to get an excellent trip while either leading or stalking the field through the early stages of the race. Having John Velazquez aboard certainly helps his chances as well.
Dan the Tin Man enters off of a five-length victory in a maiden special weight at Woodbine, but will be making his dirt debut today for trainer Ricky Griffith. He really couldn't be training any better, and gets the service of top jockey Javier Castellano, but the question of the dirt still looms a serious question. If he can transfer his form to conventional dirt, he could be a legitimate contender for the win at a solid price.
The last horse to discuss is He's So Fine, who broke his maiden at Belmont against a field of $50,000 claimers with an impressive late run. Looking at the Beyer speed figures, he would appear to be overmatched here, but as the lone true closer in a field of speed horses, he could wind up as the beneficiary of a speed duel and put in a good rally. You have to respect his strong pedigree, and trainer Kenny McPeek certainly knows what he is doing.
You can make a case for any horse in this race -- which is exactly what I just did :) -- but I have decided to take a shot with Pletcher's Drum Roll and hope that he gets an ideal trip stalking a couple of front-runners before wearing them down in the homestretch. Spurious Precision should run well again, but the fact that he was a last-minute entrant does worry me to a certain extent.
Let us now take a briefer look at the Adirondack Stakes, where Pletcher once again has a major contender in Kauai Katie. Owned by Stonestreet Stable, the filly absolutely romped in her debut on the opening day of this Saratoga meet, drawing off to a powerful twelve-length victory that earned her a Beyer speed figure of 100. Anything close to a repeat of that performance would probably get her the victory today, and with only four horses set to face her, she figures to go off as an odds-on favorite and likely add a graded stakes victory to her record.
Her competitors are an interesting bunch. Cayllano broke her maiden at Indiana Downs and subsequently took Delaware Park's White Clay Creek Overnight Stakes in impressive fashion, but is now stepping way up in class for trainer Thomas Amoss. Vitameta won her debut race at Calder by seven lengths, but the front-running daughter of Street Sense must now face the unenviable task of trying to beat Kauai Katie to the early lead. Salamera broke her maiden at Calder by over four lengths and came back to win J J's Dream Stakes by a neck over the same track, but is going to have to improve to beat the favorite. Last of all, Fully Living broke her maiden at Belmont in good fashion, but came back to finish a disappointing fourth in the Schuylerville Stakes (gr. III) here at Saratoga. However, she will race on Lasix for the first time today, signaling that she may have bled in the Schuylerville, and her most recent workout was extremely impressive. If anyone can defeat Kauai Katie, it will probably be Fully Living.
Nevertheless, my selection is still Kauai Katie, as I do believe she could end up being one of the best two-year-old fillies of the year. Fully Living should also run well, but she would need to step up her game in order to take down the favorite.
-Keelerman
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