Friday's card is headlined by the $500,000 Ballerina Stakes (gr. I), a prestigious seven-furlong sprint in which six fillies and mares are scheduled to head to post.
The morning line favorite, following the expected scratch of It's Tricky, is Turbulent Descent. The daughter of Congrats was spectacular as a juvenile and for the first eight months of her three-year-old season, winning such major races as the Hollywood Starlet Stakes (gr. I), Santa Anita Oaks (gr. I), and Test Stakes (gr. I), the latter victory coming here at Saratoga over the same distance as today's race. But she went off form shortly thereafter, finishing fifth in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (gr. I) and sixth in the La Brea Stakes (gr. I). Given a break by trainer Mike Puype, she returned in June to win the Desert Stormer Handicap at Betfair Hollywood Park over a tough field that included Izzy Rules, Mildly Offensive, and Switch. She was then sold and transferred to the barn of Todd Pletcher, for whom she makes her debut today. Given her vast natural talent, affinity for this track, and superb recent workouts, she looms as an odds-on favorite that will be very tough to beat.
Nicole H and Derwin's Star are the most likely upsetters, with the former coming off of a pair of runner-up efforts in graded stakes company and the latter having won the Bed o' Roses Handicap (gr. III) in decisive fashion two starts back. But both are making their Saratoga debuts, and both have been a bit inconsistent in the past. Furthermore, Derwin's Star is coming off of a dismal effort routing in the Molly Pitcher Stakes (gr. II). On the other hand, both have drawn good post positions for their running styles, and if Turbulent Descent were to disappoint, either one of these fine fillies could secure the victory.
As for the rest, Island Bound merits respect off of her victory in the Winning Colors Stakes (gr. III) three starts back, but was soundly beaten by Derwin's Star in the Bed o' Roses and doesn't appear to be quite as good as the favorites. Belle of the Hall has some good efforts behind her as well, but she has been beaten by both Nicole H and Island Bound in her last two starts, and has only once cracked a 90 Beyer in twenty career starts. Lastly, All Due Respect has been in poor form this year, but has a ton of back class and could appreciate running in a sprint for the first time since 2010.
My selections are:
1 Turbulent Descent
2 Derwin's Star
3 Nicole H
4 All Due Respect
I can't really see Turbulent Descent regresses off of her exceptional 2012 debut, and while Derwin's Star should be able to make a good run at her in the homestretch, I think that Turbulent Descent will have enough left in the tank to secure victory.
-Keelerman
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