Fillies and mares are the stars of the Sunday card, with six of them scheduled to head to post for the $600,000 Personal Ensign Handicap (gr. I). This year's renewal of the race will be run at nine furlongs, a furlong shorter than the ten-furlong distance that has been the race standard for years. So be sure to keep that in mind when handicapping the race.
The morning line favorite at 4-5 is Royal Delta, the Eclipse champion 3yo filly of 2011. One of the biggest triumphs of her career came here at Saratoga last year, when she won the ten-furlong Alabama Stakes (gr. I) by 5 1/2 impressive lengths over It's Tricky. Two starts later she defeated that same rival in the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (gr. I), stamping herself as the division champion in the process.
Royal Delta began her 2012 season with a second-place finish to Awesome Maria in the Sabin Stakes (gr. III), followed by a traffic-troubled ninth in the Dubai World Cup (UAE-I) against males. But she rebounded thereafter to take the Fleur de Lis Handicap (gr. II) with overwhelming ease, and backed up that effort with a gritty neck victory in the Delaware Handicap (gr. II) despite racing perhaps a bit too close to a blazing pace. She has trained sharply since then, and given her affinity for this track, you have to think that this is her race to lose.
On the other hand, her old rival It's Tricky will surely have something to say about that. During her exceptional career, It's Tricky has won three grade I and two grade II stakes event for Godolphin Racing, including the 2011 Coaching Club American Oaks (gr. I) over Royal Delta. But two subsequent defeats at the hands of Royal Delta have left It's Tricky with the reputation of being the second-best filly or mare in the land -- something that could potentially change later this afternoon. After all, It's Tricky has been flawless this year, winning the Top Flight and Distaff Handicaps (both grade II) before upsetting Awesome Maria in the Ogden Phipps Handicap (gr. I) at Belmont Park. True, this will be her first start in three months, and she may prefer slightly shorter distances, but her recent training has been exceptional, and her tactical speed gives her a meaningful advantage over Royal Delta. Can she upset Royal Delta? Perhaps. At the very least, she should be able to give her more famed rival everything she can handle.
The clear third choice in this race is Tiz Miz Sue, a five-year-old daughter of Tiznow that has seems to be only now reaching her peak. Third in this race last year, Tiz Miz Sue began her year by running second in a pair of listed stakes at Oaklawn Park, the won the Azeri Stakes (gr. III) and finished third in the Apple Blossom Handicap (gr. I) at that same track. She then shipped to Delaware Park, a track at which some of her best performances have come, and ran second in the Obeah Stakes (gr. III) as a prep for the Delaware Handicap. In that ten-furlong race, she was sent off at odds of 28-1 against Royal Delta, but made a bold run at the favorite and just missed winning by a neck. Some will argue that her performance was due in part to the fact that Royal Delta carried nine more pounds that day, but the weight assignments are the same for today's affair. Still, it's difficult to envision Tiz Miz Sue improving upon that effort today, for the circumstances were perfect for an upset in the Delaware Handicap, and now she must try and catch Royal Delta at a shorter distance and with a likely slower pace.
The rest of the entrants would need to show a great deal of improvement to contend for an exacta finish. Love and Pride defeated Tiz Miz Sue in the Obeah Stakes, but was fourth in the Delaware Handicap after setting a fast pace and was beaten by It's Tricky in the Top Flight Handicap earlier this year. Brushed by a Star has won three straight, including the Molly Pitcher Stakes (gr. II) last time out, but was well beaten in her only other graded stakes appearance and probably isn't quite as good as the top two. R Gypsy Gold finished an even third in the Molly Pitcher, and now takes a large step up in class for trainer Todd Pletcher.
My selection is . . . hey, there was a dead-heat in the Travers yesterday, I'll take Royal Delta and It's Tricky! Oh, all right, I won't take the easy way out. For the moment, my selection is Royal Delta, but I could easy select It's Tricky and may if the track seems to be speed-favoring. Regardless of who wins, this should be one of the most exciting races of the Saratoga meet, and perhaps even the year.
-Keelerman
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