We'll begin our analysis of the day's racing with the Del Mar's $300,000 Clement L. Hirsch Stakes (gr. I) for fillies and mares, which has drawn a total of four grade/group I winners. Let's start handicapping!
Clement L. Hirsch Stakes (gr. I)
1 1/16th miles on the Del Mar Polytrack
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Include Me Out | Joe Talamo |
| 2 | Quaintly | Yuichi Fukunaga |
| 3 | Switch | Martin Garcia |
| 4 | Amani | Garrett Gomez |
| 5 | Kayce Ace | Aaron Gryder |
| 6 | Zafeen's Pearl | Chantal Sutherland |
| 7 | Star Billing | Rafael Bejarano |
| 8 | Great Hot | Victor Espinoza |
There's plenty to choose from in this seemingly evenly-matched race. Favored on the morning line is Include Me Out, who is 3-for-4 this year, including a victory in the Santa Margarita Invitational Stakes (gr. I) back in March. Last time out, she opened up a substantial lead in the Vanity Handicap (gr. I) at Betfair Hollywood Park before easing herself up in the final sixteenth of a mile, allowing Love Theway Youare to rally for victory. Assuming that her late run is timed better today, she should have every shot at adding another grade I victory to her record.
However, in order to do so, she will have to take down the great Chilean mare Amani, who will be making her American debut for trainer Neil Drysdale. In her native country, she was nearly unbeatable, winning ten of her eleven starts, dominating group I races by huge margins, and defeating males with ease. Can she transfer her Chilean form to America? That is the biggest question. Some South American imports come to the United States and thrive. Others come and find they are barely competitive in allowance races. I'm leaning toward thinking that this filly is the real deal; that she is going to be a major contender in America's biggest filly and mare races for the rest of the year. But until she does, we can't be sure.
Switch also figures to be a contender on sheer class alone, for she has won or placed in an impressive ten grade I races during her career. Last time out, she won the seven-furlong A Gleam Handicap (gr. II) at Betfair Hollywood Park, which was her first victory since January 2011, so she is clearly coming into today's race in strong form. However, she has never been quite as good in route races as she is in sprints, so while she is certainly a contender to crack the trifecta, a victory here would be a bit of a surprise. On the other hand, she has parlayed sprint victories into strong route efforts before, and she did finish third in this race one year ago, so maybe she can pull this off.
Zafeen's Pearl spent the first seventeen races of her career in Europe, where she was a useful handicap horse before being imported to the U.S. Her first start on these shores yielded a distant but promising third in the Vanity Handicap (gr. I), which was followed by an excellent victory in an allowance optional claiming race here at Del Mar just one week ago. She is certainly coming back on short rest, but I wouldn't hold that against her, for she came back off of two weeks rest on a number of occasions in Europe.
As for the rest, Quaintly began her career in Europe before shipping to the U.S. and placing in four consecutive turf races, including a trio of stakes, two of which were against males. She must now prove herself in a grade I going a shorter distance than she is used to over a synthetic track -- a trio of factors that make her one of the longshots today, even though her form is respectable enough to consider her a contender for a piece of the purse. Kayce Ace finished seventh in both of her graded stakes attempts, and enters off of a lengthy layoff. While she is training sharply, she would need a career-best effort in order to win. Star Billing won the prestigious Matriarch Stakes (gr. I), but finished eighth and last in her lone start since then, the Redondo Beach Stakes. Last of all, Great Hot won a pair of stakes races last year, including the Lexus Raven Run Stakes (gr. II) at Keeneland, but her last three starts have been less-than-stellar.
My selection is Include Me Out, the feeling here being that Joe Talamo will wait a bit longer today before unleashing her late run, which will hopefully prevent anyone from catching her late. Amani and Switch certainly deserve respect, but I'm fairly confident that Include Me Out will prove best in the end.
Other Races of Note:
At Saratoga . . .
The highlights of a terrific card are the Whitney Invitational (gr. I) and the Prioress Stakes (gr. I), a pair of intriguing races that should help sort out some Breeders' Cup contenders. My full analysis of the races can be found here: http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/08/saratoga-stakes-analysis-august-4th-2012.html
At Mountaineer . . .
Race 1: The $100,000 Mountaineer Juvenile Stakes looks like a two-horse match between Bashford Manor Stakes (gr. III) winner Circle Unbroken and the super-promising debut winner Maybe So. Both bring strong contenders and excellent speed into the race, and it should be fascinating to see which colt proves best. Pitch N Roll, runner-up in the Par Four Overnight Stakes on July 12th at Delaware Park, is expected to have the best chance at pulling off an upset.
Race 7: The $200,000 West Virginia Governor's Cup Stakes may not be a graded stakes, but it has certainly drawn a graded stakes-caliber field. Two-time graded stakes winner Tapizar is the morning line favorite, but may not be completely fit in his first start since March. Colizeo, winner of the 2010 Northern Dancer Stakes (gr. III), hasn't been in the best of form lately, but you can never count out a Todd Pletcher-trainee. Headache, the 2011 Hawthorne Gold Cup Handicap (gr. II) winner, and Seruni, runner-up in the Firecracker Handicap (gr. II) last time out, are other major contenders.
Race 8: Eclipse champion Hansen is the overwhelming favorite to win the $750,000 West Virginia Derby (gr. II), where his abundant speed and natural talent make him the most likely winner of the race. Coming off of a terrific victory in the Iowa Derby (gr. III), it would be an incredible shock were he to lose, even though this distance may be slightly longer than his best. Le Bernardin, winner of the Pegasus Stakes (gr. III), and Macho Macho, runner-up in the Long Branch Stakes, are expected to have the best shot at pulling off an upset. Other contenders are Louisiana Derby (gr. II) winner Hero of Order, the talented stretching-out sprinter Bourbon Courage, and Called to Serve, most recently fifth in the Swaps Stakes (gr. II).
-Keelerman
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