Saturday, August 04, 2012

SARATOGA STAKES ANALYSIS -- August 4th, 2012

Today's Saturday card at Saratoga is a truly spectacular one, with a pair of grade I races, a strong restricted stakes, and a number of fascinating juveniles races scheduled to be run.

Our analysis shall begin with the $750,000 Whitney Invitational (gr. I), which has been won in recent years by such stars as Tizway and Blame. It is traditionally one of the strongest and most exciting races of the year, and the 2012 edition should prove to be no exception. Eight of the nine entrants are graded stakes winners, and the one that isn't -- Trickmeister -- is a four-time listed stakes winner.

The morning line favorite is Ron the Greek, who is having a truly remarkable year. Trained by Bill Mott, the son of Full Mandate began the season with a strong runner-up effort against Mucho Macho Man in the Florida Sunshine Millions Classic, then shipped to California and won the prestigious Santa Anita Handicap (gr. I) by 3 1/2 lengths. A slow pace compromised his late run in the Oaklawn Handicap (gr. II), where he wound up second behind the talented Alternation, but he rebounded sharply in his most recent start to win the Stephen Foster Handicap (gr. I) by a head after trailing the leaders by a large margin turning for home. Obviously, he is reliant upon a fast early pace to set up his late run, but the presence of Trickmeister, Endorsement, Rule, and Fort Larned should ensure that he gets one.

Speaking of Fort Larned, the Ian Wilkes-trainee is having a spectacular year, with victories in the Skip Away Stakes (gr. III) and Cornhusker Handicap (gr. III) among his victories. True, he was beaten twelve lengths when eighth in the Stephen Foster behind Ron the Greek, but a poor start surely didn't help his chances. His performance last time out in the Cornhusker Handicap (gr. III) was very strong, although partly aided by the fact that he was able to secure an unchallenged lead over a speed-favoring track. Expect to see him right behind Trickmeister during the early stages of the race, hoping to conserve enough energy to hold off the closers in deep stretch.

Flat Out and Hymn Book will also receive a great deal of wagering support. The first-mentioned colt is a stablemate to Ron the Greek, as both are trained by Bill Mott. Flat Out was among the best horses in the country last year, winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I) and Suburban Handicap (gr. II), in addition to placing in the Woodward Stakes (gr. I), Clark Handicap (gr. I), Lone Star Park Handicap (gr. II), and, of course, the Whitney Invitational. Two dull efforts at the start of 2012 earned him a break, as well as a trainer switch, but he returned on July 7th to finish second in a paceless edition of the Monmouth Cup (gr. II) while making his first start for Mott. One would expect him to be even sharper today, making his second start off a layoff and stretching out in distance, but it's hard to say for sure if he is ready to return to his 2011 form, or if he will need one more race.

As for Hymn Book, he won the Donn Handicap (gr. I) at the start of the year, but his best finish from three subsequent starts was a second-place effort last time out in the Suburban Handicap (gr. II), where he blew the break and found himself well off of the early pace. He did rally well in the stretch, but was never a threat to the winner. It is interesting to note that all seven of his victories have come over either off tracks or turf, while he is 0-5 on fast tracks. He has certainly run well in several of those races, but he may be slightly better in the mud, and against a field of this caliber, he may need a little help from the weather in order to win.

One of the more intriguing horses in this race is Rule, a talented and consistent Todd Pletcher-trainee with a good deal of early speed. Throughout his career, he has been an admirable grade II/III-type horse, but he has never succeeded in winning a grade I race -- even though he has never failed to crack the trifecta when competing in one. In 2011, he won only a single race -- the Birdstone Stakes here at Saratoga -- but based off of his victory last time out in the Monmouth Cup Stakes (gr. II) over Flat Out, which was his first start in nine months, he seems to be in good form and could make his presence felt from the outset, if he can show enough early speed to secure a good trip from post one.

The above-mentioned horses are all at 5-1 or less on the morning line. Now, let's take a moment to examine the quartet of longshots, with odds ranging from 15-1 to 20-1. Caixa Eletronica is a versatile seven-year-old that has won grade II stakes races at distances ranging from six furlongs to 1 1/8 miles. He is 2-for-2 at this distance, and beat some good horses in the Charles Town Classic (gr. II) earlier this year, but he's probably best in shorter races and against lesser company. Trickmeister set a quick pace in the Suburban Handicap (gr. II) last time out before tiring to finish third, but the distance and potential pace scenario may play against his chances. His best hope his to grab the lead and set as slow a pace as possible before pouring it on late. Endorsement won the Texas Mile Stakes (gr. III) and set a track record at Gulfstream Park earlier this year, but less-than-stellar efforts in the Pimlico Special Handicap (gr. III) and Suburban Handicap (gr. II) make him an outsider today; like Trickmeister, he would appreciate a slow early pace. Last of all, Hunters Bay is a perfect 4-for-4 over the Woodbine Polytrack, which includes three consecutive victories heading into this race, but his record on dirt isn't quite as flashy. Nevertheless, he twice earned triple-digit Beyer speed figures over the Gulfstream dirt in the winter of 2011, and he is a two-time grade III stakes winner. At 20-1, he might be worth considering.

My selection, after a great deal of thought, is -- get this -- Hunters Bay. When I started handicapping the race, I didn't intend to select him, but after going over the potential pace scenarios, I came to the conclusion that this colt is going to show just enough speed to stay in contention, then get first run at Trickmeister and Fort Larned in the homestretch. Assuming the early pace isn't terribly quick, which I don't think it will be, Hunters Bay should have just enough left in the tank to hold off the closers.

***

Having finished with the Whitney, let us now take a brief look at the Prioress Stakes (gr. I), a six-furlong race for three-year-old fillies run immediately prior to the Whitney. Seven have entered, including the 1-2-3-5 finishers from the Victory Ride Stakes (gr. III) last month at Belmont Park.

Agave Kiss, who was fifth that day after helping set a blazing pace, is the morning line favorite. Prior to her Victory Ride disappointment, she had won all six of her starts in terrific fashion, including the Miss Preakness Stakes with a Beyer of 106. In the Victory Ride, her chances were compromised by drawing gate one, which forced her to use her speed in the opening furlongs of the race in order to avoid getting trapped along the rail. Since she has drawn gate six today, the early pace should be much more moderate, which should help Agave Kiss get back to the winner's circle.

On the other hand, the presence of Jamaican Smoke could make things interesting. She was the one that forced Agave Kiss through those blazing splits in the Victory Ride, but unlike her rival, Jamaican Smoke didn't tire nearly as badly -- she held on for second in a good effort. True, the pace of today's race shouldn't be nearly as quick, thus helping Agave Kiss' chances -- but won't that help Jamaican Smoke just as much?

Emma's Encore, who rallied from well off the pace to win the Victory Ride, is obviously a talented filly, but would likely need another blazing pace in order to set up her late run. Tu Endie Wei tracked the Victory Ride duel in third, but couldn't parlay that advantage into victory. Livi Makenzie has been beaten soundly in her last four starts, but is now cutting back in distance. Judy the Beauty was grade I-placed last year, and returned from a long layoff to finish second in a recent allowance race at Churchill Downs, signaling that she may be ready for another strong effort. Jazzy Idea has finished first or second in every one of her last six starts, as well as ten of her twelve overall, and is coming off of strong efforts in numerous sprint stakes at a variety of tracks. She may be best on turf, but she has plenty of speed, and she'll certainly be in the mix.

My selection is Judy the Beauty, who ran well here last summer in the Spinaway Stakes (gr. I) to lose by just 1 3/4 lengths to Grace Hall. With Joel Rosario aboard, I envision her settling right behind the early pace and finish up in good fashion to secure her first graded stakes victory.

-Keelerman

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