The Saratoga meet may be nearing a conclusion, with only nine days of racing remaining, but there are still plenty of terrific graded stakes races left to be run. Four of them are to be held later this afternoon, led by the $1,000,000 Travers Stakes (gr. I) for three-year-olds, traditionally the biggest race of the meet. But the other three races are no slouches themselves, with the King's Bishop and Test Stakes (both grade I), as well as the Ballston Spa Stakes (gr. II), providing a spectacular lead-up to the feature race.
We shall begin today's analysis with the TRAVERS STAKES, which has drawn a wide-open field of eleven, most unproven at the ten-furlong distance of the race. The morning line favorite at 5-2 is Alpha, a son of Bernardini, who sired last year's Travers winner Stay Thirsty. Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, Alpha has been a nice horse from day one, breaking his maiden first-time out by six lengths and finishing second to Union Rags in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) in his debut against winners. Overall, he is 2-for-2 here at Saratoga, most recently winning the prestigious Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. II) in gate-to-wire fashion. And given his pedigree, he should have no issues with the distance of today's race.
However, there are a couple of things that concern me. First off, his Jim Dandy win was probably exaggerated to some extent by the sloppy track and the slow pace. Furthermore, from a Beyer speed figure perspective, Alpha is simply not as fast as some of his rivals. A career-best performance this afternoon could remedy that, but it's also worth noting that Alpha has gone to pieces mentally on the two occasions where he was faced with a large crowd -- at the 2011 Breeders' Cup, and at this year's Kentucky Derby. His dull performances reflected that he had apparently expended his energy getting upset over the crowd. Perhaps it won't affect him today, but it might be wise to take a good look at him in the post parade and see how he is handling the Travers day crowd before picking him to win.
Nonios and Neck 'n Neck loom as the most likely upsetters if Alpha leaves his race in the paddock. The first-mentioned colt is lightly raced, having made only six starts, but the Jerry Hollendorfer-trainee is coming off of a terrific runner-up effort to Paynter in the Haskell Invitational (gr. I), in which he made a bold, and possibly premature, run along the rail before getting left behind by the winner. However, Nonios did stay on strongly in the homestretch after switching to the outside, finishing only 3 3/4 lengths behind Paynter while 4 1/2 lengths clear of the rest of the field. This performance, coupled with his overall record and jockey switch to John Velazquez, makes him a serious contender for the victory, even though he will have to overcome starting from post ten.
Neck 'n Neck is also intriguing. The son of Flower Alley disappointed in the spring Derby preps, failing to hit the board in races like the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby, but has really improved a great deal during the ensuing months. The change began at Churchill Downs, where he won an allowance race by 6 1/2 lengths before dominating the Matt Winn Stakes (gr. III) by 7 1/4, defeating the likes of Stealcase, who returned to finish third in the Haskell, and Macho Macho, who recently won the West Virginia Derby (gr. III) over Hansen. This record made him one of the favorites in the Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. II), where he tracked Alpha through slow fractions, made a bold run at him, and was understandably turned back. A return to a fast track should help his chances, as should the projected faster pace of today's race.
Aside from those three, things get a bit trickier to interpret. Street Life is coming off of a victory in the restricted Curlin Stakes here at Saratoga, but that was over a sloppy track, and his late-run was partly an illusion created by the fact that all of the other runners were tiring. On the other hand, he didn't have the greatest of trips that day, being forced to rally terribly wide in the homestretch, and a better trip could help his chances. And being a son of 2007 Travers winner Street Sense, he shouldn't mind the distance.
Five Sixteen is also coming out of the Curlin Stakes, where he finished a decent second after tracking the pace and cutting the corner in brilliant fashion. Nevertheless, he was unable to parlay this terrific trip into a victory, and he was really no match for Street Life. Furthermore, his best previous effort was a fifth in the Belmont Stakes, so while this is obviously a nice colt, he's probably in a bit deep today.
Liaison, Atigun, and Fast Falcon are all coming out of the Jim Dandy Stakes, in which they competed with varying degrees of success. Liaison ran well from off-the-pace to finish third, an effort that is even more impressive when one takes into account the slow pace that Alpha had set. Previously, he had been beaten a combined total of half a length by Nonios in a pair of graded stakes races at Hollywood Park, so the class is clearly there, but he doesn't seem to like dirt as well as the Hollywood Custion Track, and being a son of Indian Charlie, he may not care for this distance either. Nevertheless, you can't toss a Baffert-trainee from a big race, and top jockey Rafael Bejarano will be aboard, so at the very least, a good effort is a distinct possibility. Atigun caught eyes when he finished third at 20-1 in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) and was thus well-bet in the Jim Dandy Stakes, but after being reserved off of the slow pace, he failed to mount any rally and finished sixth. The added distance of today's race, the projected faster pace, his bullet half-mile breeze on the 19th, and the jockey switch to Mike Smith are all positives signals that point to an improved performance, so don't count him out of contention. Fast Falcon finished a dull seventh in the Jim Dandy after rating off the pace, and while he is certainly eligible to improve while returning to a fast track, even a career-best effort might not be quite enough to get him the victory.
Stealcase has difficult form to interpret. After disappointing in the Gotham and Spiral Stakes during the spring, he stepped up to finish a strong third in the Derby Trial Stakes (gr. III) while just a neck behind Paynter. He then won an allowance race by four lengths, finished second to Neck 'n Neck in the Matt Winn Stakes, and third in the Haskell Invitational after a poor start. He would have to improve significantly to contend for the win, but perhaps the added distance and a cleaner break could help him do just that.
The longest shots in this spot are Golden Ticket and Speightscity. Golden Ticket finished second in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) earlier this year, but has not run since being beaten a neck by Skyring in an allowance race at Churchill Downs on May 5th. You can't knock his recent workouts, but he has never recorded a Beyer speed figure over 90 and probably isn't quite good enough to contend here. Speightscity is in a similar boat, only more so. He has been training exceptionally well, but hasn't run since finishing second in the Withers Stakes (gr. III) behind Alpha back in February. The plan is to send him to the lead and see how far he can go. I wouldn't be surprised if he takes them a long way, but it's difficult to see him winning a race of such caliber off of such a lengthy layoff.
My selection is Nonios, for the reasons I outlined above. I also greatly respect the chances of Neck 'n Neck, and feel that Atigun, Liaison, and Stealcase all have excellent chances as well. I will wait until the post parade before finalizing my opinions of Alpha.
Let us now take a moment to discuss the KING'S BISHOP STAKES (gr. I). The two legitimate favorites are Currency Swap, who won the Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) here at Saratoga last fall and the Amsterdam Stakes (gr. III) last time out, and Trinniberg, the runner-up in the Hopeful and subsequent winner of the Swale Stakes (gr. III), Bay Shore Stakes (gr. III), and Woody Stephens Stakes (gr. II), defeating Currency Swap in the latter race. Currency Swap probably has the advantage since this is his favorite track, but Trinniberg has drawn an outside post position, and should be able to adapt to whatever pace scenario arises. Other contenders are Fort Loudon, a Calder-specialist that beat Trinniberg in the Carry Back Stakes (gr. III) before finishing fifth in the Amsterdam Stakes (gr. III); Doctor Chit, runner-up in the Amsterdam for trainer Todd Pletcher; Willy Beamin, who has won five straight including the Albany Stakes on Wednesday; Ever So Lucky, third in the Curlin Stakes last month; and Gun Boat, who finished sixth in the Amsterdam for trainer Bob Baffert after stumbling terribly at the start. My selection: Currency Swap, with a great deal of respect for Ever So Lucky.
The TEST STAKES (gr. I) -- the filly's equivalent of the King's Bishop -- figures to be a battle between Acorn Stakes (gr. I) winner Contested and recent allowance winner Book Review. Contested will likely be favored, even though she disappointed last time out in the Mother Goose Stakes (gr. I), thanks to her two stakes wins and her spectacular recent training. Furthermore, her outside post should enable her to secure a good trip. Book Review has been in excellent form as of late, placing second to the exceptional two-time grade I winner Questing in an allowance race before winning a similar event in decisive fashion. Aubby K, who finished third in the Acorn, and Gypsy Robin, a three-time stakes winner coming off of a disappointing effort in the Victory Ride Stakes (gr. III), could also contend. My selection: Contested
The last stakes on the card is the BALLSTON SPA STAKES (gr. II), a 1 1/16th-miles turf race in which eight fillies and mares are scheduled to head to post. There are plenty of intriguing contenders, with grade I winners Zagora, Tapitsfly, and Summer Soiree headlining the field. Zagora will probably head to post as the favorite thanks to her strong overall record, but Tapitsfly holds a tactical advantage thanks to her early speed and could prove very difficult to catch. Summer Soiree had a terrific season last year, winning the Del Mar Oaks (gr. I), Boiling Springs Stakes (gr. III), and Bourbonette Stakes (gr. III) in addition to placing second in the Matriarch Stakes (gr. I), but has not run since last November and may need to get a race or two under her belt before returning to peak form. Hungry Island and Heavenly Landing also merit respect, but may not be quite as good as the top three. My selection: Tapitsfly
-Keelerman
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