The highlight of the Saturday card is the $500,000 Fourstardave Handicap (gr. II), a one-mile turf race that has drawn an intriguing field of nine, as well as one main-track only entrant.
The favorite on the morning line at 5-2 is Wise Dan, a versatile gelding trained by Charles Lopresti that has won graded stakes on dirt, turf, and synthetic tracks. His record seems to imply that he is at his best over Polytrack, but victories in the Clark Handicap (gr. I) on dirt and the Firecracker Handicap (gr. II) make it clear that he can win a major race over just about any track in the country. His ability to track a decent pace and still finish strong is what makes him so difficult to beat, and since the Fourstardave seems to be lacking in early speed, Wise Dan should be able to get first run at the leaders and hopefully have enough left in the tank to hold off the deep closers.
Another horse that warrants serious respect is Data Link, winner of the prestigious Maker's 46 Mile Stakes (gr. I) during the Keeneland Spring meet. That day, he showcased a terrific turn of foot to defeat the talented Turallure by a neck, with fellow Fourstardave contender Get Stormy further back in fourth. A subsequent fifth-place finish in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic Stakes (gr. I) was more the result of a slow pace and a troubled trip than any lack of talent, and Data Link proved that when he came back to win the Monmouth Stakes (gr. II) by a length over Get Stormy while missing the track record by less than a fifth of a second. He'll need a fast pace to set up his late kick, but if he gets one, he can certainly close a lot of ground in little time. (Update: As I am getting ready to post this, I see that Data Link has scratched, as well as the longshot Right One.)
As for Get Stormy, he began the year with a narrow victory in the nine-furlong Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap (gr. I), but could only manage fourth- and ninth-place finishes in the Maker's 46 Mile and the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic Stakes. He rebounded sharply last time out to miss by just a length in the above-mentioned Monmouth Stakes, but it is a fact that he has been decisively beaten by Data Link in each of his last three starts. To reverse that trend today, he is going to have to step up his game.
Guys Reward has won his last three starts in late-running fashion, including the Firecracker Handicap (gr. II) last time out, but this is a pretty big step up in class and he will likely need a career-best performance in order to contend. On the other hand, his late kick can be devastating, and he does enjoy less-than-firm ground -- conditions that are very possible to occur this afternoon.
Corporate Jungle, from the barn of Chad Brown, won the Appleton Stakes (gr. III) three starts back and subsequently took the Elkwood Stakes at Monmouth in terrific fashion, but he proved to be no factor last time out in the $300,000 Shoemaker Mile Stakes (gr. I) at Betfair Hollywood Park, finishing a dull fifth behind Jeranimo. That was a quickly run race, and a slower early pace could help his chances, but he still has to prove that he is capable of winning a race of this caliber.
The longshots in this race, following the scratch of Right One, are Upgrade, Yield Bogey, and Surfrider. The first-mentioned horse is coming off of a victory in the seven-furlong Jaipur Stakes (gr. III), in which he rallied strongly from off the pace to win by three-quarters of a length. Yield Bogey finished third in the Jaipur, and subsequently ran a decent third in the Poker Stakes (gr. II) and fifth in the Willard Straight Stakes, the dull effort in the latter race perhaps being due to the short distance (5-1/2 furlongs) of the race. Last of all, Surfrider won a 6-1/2 furlong allowance optional claiming race two starts back, but most recently finished last of nine in the Highlander Stakes (gr. II) at Woodbine.
Let us also take a moment to mention the lone also-eligible, Crossbow, who will run only if the race is rained off the turf course. He has excellent main-track form in sprints, but is unproven beyond seven furlongs. A victory in this race, even with the sloppy track, would be a bit of a surprise, but perhaps this colt is better than we know.
My selection is Wise Dan, regardless of whether the race comes off the turf or not. He is so talented and so versatile that turf, dirt, or slop, he should be able to work out a good trip and outfinish his rivals.
-Keelerman
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