The $400,000 Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (gr. I) was expected to be an interesting race -- isn't every grade I interesting? -- but not really anything particularly special. That all changed when it was announced that Shackleford, winner of the prestigious Metropolitan Handicap (gr. I), would be entered.
Originally, the connections of the top sprinter had decided to give their star a rest following his brilliant Met Mile win, with the plan being to bring him back for the Forego Stakes (gr. I) at the end of the Saratoga meet. But Shackleford was training so well that they decided to give him a shot at this race as well. There are a couple of concerns, mainly the fact that Shackleford has never raced in such a short race before, but he is so classy and talented that another superb effort -- even a victory -- would surprise no one. However, jockey John Velazquez is going to have to make sure that Shackleford breaks sharply from post position one; otherwise, the race favorite could find himself trapped along the fence with nowhere to go.
The horse with the best shot at pulling off an upset is the lightly-raced Emcee, owned by Godolphin Racing and trained by Kiaran McLaughlin. The brilliant colt has won three of his five starts, and has recorded a trio of triple-digit Beyer speed figures. He hasn't raced since winning a seven-furlong allowance race at Belmont on May 5th, but he has been training very well since then and may have enough speed to beat Shackleford to the lead, even though he does appear best as a pace-stalking type. True, he was soundly beaten by Shackleford when fourth in the Carter Handicap (gr. I) two starts back, but a poor start compromised his chances and one shouldn't hold it against him.
Aside from the two favorites, it's difficult to say for sure which of the other entrants are contenders and which are not; they're so evenly matched, they might all be contenders! Rothko has been a consistently good horse throughout his career, finishing first or second in seven of his nine starts, including a runner-up finish to The Factor in the 2011 Malibu Stakes (gr. I). Two starts back, he won Churchill's Aristides Stakes (gr. III) in decisive fashion, but his most recent effort yielded a surprising defeat as the odds-on favorite in the Iowa Sprint Handicap at Prairie Meadows. Perhaps the track was speed favoring, or perhaps he didn't care for the mud, but while the defeat was unexplainable, it was still another good effort. If Rothko simply runs his usual race, he looks like the third-best runner here. Should he improve, he could potentially contend for the win.
Justin Phillip and Jersey Town are a somewhat inconsistent pair that could both contend on their best days -- but determining whether they are sitting on a good or bad effort is the question. To me, Justin Phillip appears vastly superior at Belmont Park than anywhere else; a good example of a "horse for the course". Occasionally, he has taken his game elsewhere and run well -- last year's King's Bishop Stakes, for instance -- but in general, you can expect him to fire big at Belmont and disappoint elsewhere. Jersey Town's form is not nearly as easy to predict, for his vast swings in ability are the result of foot issues that have hampered him throughout his career. When he is sound, he is terrific -- remember his amazing victory in the 2010 Cigar Mile Handicap (gr. I)? -- but when he is not, it affects his training enough to throw off his performances. His 2012 campaign has been limited to just one race, a close second in the Sir Shackleton Stakes on March 31st at Gulfstream Park. Coming into the Vanderbilt off of such a long layoff, I wouldn't expect Jersey Town to fire his best shot today, but he'll be one to watch in the Forego Stakes (gr. I) next month, assuming his feet stay in good shape.
The long shots in this race are Hamazing Destiny, Poseidon's Warrior, and Sloane Ranger. The first-mentioned horse has had a long career comprised of twenty-seven starts, and on occasion, he can fire big. He was the runner-up in the 2010 Breeders' Cup Sprint (gr. I), and while his 2011 season was rather poor, he seems to be in the best form of his career this year. A victory in the Maryland Sprint Handicap (gr. III) has been the highlight thus far, with strong efforts in the Count Fleet Handicap (gr. III) and the King Cotton Stakes also on his record. Last time out, he finished fourth in the True North Handicap (gr. II) despite a less-than-stellar trip, so another good effort today is certainly possible.
As for Poseidon's Warrior, he was a pretty decent colt in 2011, recording four triple-digit Beyer speed figures while winning a trio of stakes races at Penn National and Delaware Park. But his two starts this year have not been nearly as good, with a fifth-place finish in the Mr. Prospector Stakes last time out being his best performance. He does seem to be poised for a step forward, and one can't deny that his recent workouts have been strong, but it's difficult to see him contending for a spot in the trifecta, although he could certainly influence the early pace.
Sloane Ranger has been keeping good company as of late, winning the Donald Levine Memorial Handicap over Golddigger's Boy -- who returned to finish second in the James Marvin Stakes (gr. III) here at Saratoga -- and also finishing a close third in the Monmouth Cup Stakes (gr. II) while just a head behind Flat Out, who finished third yesterday afternoon in the prestigious Whitney Invitational (gr. I). So clearly, Sloane Ranger has talent, and breaking from gate six, his jockey should have every opportunity to position his mount wherever makes sense; on the lead if the pace is slow, right behind if it is quick. He's 15-1 on the morning line, but he might be worth a look.
After giving this race a great deal of thought, I have decided to pick Emcee for the victory, although I will feel pretty silly should Shackleford prove victorious. My reasoning here is that Shackleford has never tried this distance before, and was only entered in this spot at the last second. Emcee has been prepared for this spot all along, and so I expect to see him get off to a great start, show speed from the start, and hand Shackleford defeat in a very close race.
-Keelerman
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